Most Americans will never use Palantir’s Maven software, but they are paying more and more taxes for it.
William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma reiterated an Outperform rating on Palantir Technologies (PLTR) on the back of the company’s Maven Smart System, which he said looks to be approaching a $1 billion annual revenue run rate and could eventually secure formal program-of-record status in the U.S. defense establishment.
It’s an estimate that counts since Maven isn’t just another corporate chatbot. It’s an AI-enabled military intelligence and data system.
William Blair said Maven looks to be on target for a $1 billion annual revenue run rate, with use rising at the Pentagon.
Beyond that, the Pentagon is already heavily involved. The Army awarded Palantir a $795 million contract amendment in May 2025 for the Maven Smart System software licenses, with work through May 2029.
This increasingly ties Palantir’s extraordinary stock story to federal spending decisions.
Palantir’s government business is growing at extraordinary speed
Palantir’s latest earnings show why Wall Street is paying attention.
Second-quarter revenue climbed 93% to $1.935 billion. U.S. revenue increased 115% to $1.573 billion.
That split is very interesting.
U.S. government revenue surged 90% to $809 million, while U.S. commercial revenue breezed along at an even greater clip of 149% to $764 million.
Palantir also inked 220 contracts worth at least $1 billion in the quarter. Ninety-eight were valued at $5 million or more, and 73 were valued at $10 million or more. Total contract value was US$3.373 billion.
This is not a company growing because of one Pentagon contract. It is expanding extremely quickly across both defense and private-sector AI.
Palantir’s $1 billion defense opportunity may be bigger than it looks.Bloomberg / Getty Images
Maven turns the AI boom into a taxpayer story
The Main Street connection is different from Nvidia or Salesforce.
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Consumers don’t buy Maven subscriptions.
Governments do.
That implies taxpayers are effectively among Palantir’s biggest indirect consumers.
The Maven change doesn’t mean the $795 million is paid all at once. The Defense Department said work sites and financing will be chosen with each order; the contract runs until May 2029.
That’s an important distinction.
Spending on software by governments can create huge revenues in the long term but be less apparent to the public than fighter jets, aircraft carriers, or missiles.
But software is playing an ever larger role in the operation of those physical systems.
AI is able to help analysts in fusing intelligence feeds, seeing trends, prioritizing targets, and coordinating information inside military groups.
So the question for taxpayers is not just whether Palantir can grow.
That is, if the government is getting enough strategic value from the ever-rising amounts it is committing to AI software.
Palantir’s extraordinary quarter
Revenue: $1.935 billion
Revenue growth: 93%
U.S. revenue: $1.573 billion
U.S. government revenue: $809 million
U.S. government growth: 90%
U.S. commercial revenue: $764 million
U.S. commercial growth: 149%
Deals of $1 million or more: 220
Q2 operating income: $912 million
William Blair Maven estimate: approaching $1 billion annual run rate
Palantir’s profitability is becoming as striking as its growth
Revenue growth is just one part of the story.
Palantir had $912 million of GAAP operating income in Q2, or a 47% operating margin, and GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders was over $1.06 billion.
Management upped full-year sales expectations to around $8.15 billion to $8.158 billion, from an earlier forecast of approximately $7.65 billion.
That’s the number behind the bullish scenario.
Palantir is not a speculative startup that promises profits years down the road. It is growing fast and at the same time it is generating huge operational margins.
The thing is, investors know it.
Following its August earnings, PLTR rose nearly 30% and has soared as investors have considered Palantir one of the cleanest public-market AI winners.
That is the central tension.
A corporation can have a great business and still be a lousy stock if the valuation believes it will perform great forever.
Another concrete number for bulls to point to is the $1 billion estimate from William Blair’s Maven call, but that same figure raises another question for everyone else. At what level of government spending on AI will taxpayers start to feel the impact? The Pentagon is emerging as one of Palantir’s biggest growth engines.
This could be great news for PLTR shareholders. It also reminds ordinary Americans who are paying for those contracts that the AI boom is no longer just a Silicon Valley thing. More and more it’s appearing in the federal budget.
Related: Palantir CEO escalates Microsoft’s AI warning