The latest estimate for next year’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) has come down again.
The Senior Citizens League now projects a 3.6% COLA for 2027, down from 3.8% in June and July and 3.9% in April. The group updated its estimate after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest inflation data.
If the 3.6% estimate holds, a $2,000 monthly Social Security benefit would increase by about $72 a month, to $2,072 before Medicare premiums and other deductions.
The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2027 COLA on October 14.
Why the 2027 Social Security COLA Could Still Change
Social Security doesn’t base its annual COLA on inflation for the entire year. Instead, the government averages the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August and September and compares that number with the average from the same three months a year earlier.
That means inflation earlier in 2026 doesn’t directly determine the COLA — and it also explains why projections change as new data comes in.
July CPI-W was up 3.4% year over year. The Senior Citizens League expects inflation to tick up slightly in August and September, leading to its current 3.6% projection.
But August and September are still unknown. Changes in energy prices and other consumer costs could push the final number higher or lower. For now, estimates in the mid-3% range appear to be the most likely outcome. Independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson estimates 3.4%, while AARP projected 3.6% in July.
The Senior Citizens League plans to release another projection on September 11 after August inflation data becomes available. At that point, two of the three months used in the actual COLA calculation will be known, giving us a much clearer picture before the Social Security Administration announces the official COLA on October 14.
What a 3.6% Social Security COLA Would Mean
If the estimate holds, 3.6% would be the largest Social Security COLA since 2023.
Recent adjustments have been:
2026: 2.8%
2025: 2.5%
2024: 3.2%
2023: 8.7%
But a bigger COLA doesn’t necessarily mean retirees are getting ahead financially.
Social Security’s COLA is designed to help benefits keep pace with inflation, not increase purchasing power.
And because the adjustment is backward-looking, retirees experience higher prices before their benefits catch up. The 2027 COLA, for example, won’t appear in benefit payments until January even though it’s based on inflation measured during the summer and early fall of 2026.
The Senior Citizens League estimates that Social Security benefits have lost roughly 13.7% of their purchasing power since 2010.
Medicare Premiums Could Eat Into the COLA
There’s another reason your Social Security check may not increase by the full COLA percentage: Medicare Part B premiums.
For most beneficiaries, Part B premiums are deducted directly from Social Security payments.
The standard Part B premium is $202.90 a month in 2026. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects a premium of $209.50 for 2027, an increase of $6.60 per month.
So consider someone receiving a $2,000 monthly Social Security benefit.
A 3.6% COLA would add about $72 a month. If the Part B premium increases by $6.60 as projected, roughly $65 of that increase would remain before any other deductions.
The actual numbers could differ. CMS won’t announce the official 2027 Part B premium until later this year, and some private forecasts expect a higher premium.
Key Dates
September 11: TSCL’s final COLA projection, incorporating August inflation data
October 14: SSA announces the official 2027 COLA alongside September CPI data
October 15 to December 7: Medicare open enrollment
November: CMS announces the official 2027 Part B premium
December: SSA mails COLA notices, also viewable in your my Social Security account
January 2027: The new benefit amount takes effect
Final Thoughts
A 3.6% COLA would give Social Security recipients a bigger increase than they’ve received in the last few years, but don’t think of it as a 3.6% raise. The COLA is primarily an attempt to help your benefit keep pace with prices that have already risen.
And the percentage announced in October won’t tell you exactly how much more money you’ll have to spend. Medicare premiums also matter, so the number to watch is the net increase in your monthly Social Security payment once both figures are official.
Most importantly, Social Security was never designed to cover all of your expenses in retirement. Your benefits should be one piece of a broader retirement plan that includes your own savings and investments. A solid plan gives you more flexibility when inflation, Medicare costs or other expenses don’t move in your favor.
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