Live Above The Madness
CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.
The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2800.9, up 1.3% (+34.92) since 4 p.m. ET on Friday.
Nine of 20 assets are trading higher.
Leaders: XRP (+5.8%) and SUI (+5.2%).
Laggards: BCH (-6.2%) and UNI (-4.8%).
The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.
Strategic allocation away from U.S. assets by investors could see bitcoin hit a new all-time high in the second quarter of the year, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick said in a report Monday.
Kendrick sees the world’s largest cryptocurrency as reaching $120,000 this quarter as he reiterated his previous target of $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin was trading around $95,300 at publication time.
Kendrick noted that the U.S. Treasury term premium, which is closely correlated to the bitcoin price, is at a 12-year high. Accumulation by whales has also been strong. In addition, bitcoin time-of-day analysis suggests that American investors may be looking for non-U.S. assets, he said.
Lastly, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows in the last week suggest “safe-haven reallocation from gold into BTC,” wrote Kendrick.
“Bitcoin may be a better hedge than gold against financial system risks,” he added.
Read more: Tariffs, Trade Tensions May Be Positive for Bitcoin Adoption in Medium Term: Grayscale
Strategy (MSTR) added another 15,355 BTC to its balance sheet over the past week, spending about $1.42 billion on the purchase, or an average price of $92,737 per bitcoin, according to a filing published on Monday.
The company’s bitcoin holdings have now risen to 553,555 BTC worth more than $52 billion at bitcoin’s current price just north of $95,000. The average purchase price for MSTR’s total stack is $64,459 each.
This latest acquisition was funded through proceeds from the company’s two at-the-market stock offerings, the filing noted. Between April 21 and April 27, Strategy sold over $4 million worth of its Class A common stock and more than 435,000 shares of its preferred stock series, STRK.
Shares of MSTR are up 1.5% in pre-market trading alongside a modest rise in the price of bitcoin since Friday afternoon.
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin (BTC) was little changed Monday, adding less than 1% amid renewed trade tensions and concerns of geopolitical instability that spread into the Indian subcontinent, where India and Pakistan are exchanging small-arms fire.
The cryptocurrency rose 0.75% in the past 24 hours, turning positive for the year and decoupling from traditional risk assets as investors questioned the durability of the U.S.’s role as the global financial anchor. The broader market, measured through the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, rose 2.2%.
Stock-index futures in the U.S. are pointing to a slight drop and gold fell over 1% with investors likely taking profit from the precious metal’s 25% year-to-date rally. Equities endured a sell-off after China denied talks with the U.S. to reach a tariff deal.
“Bitcoin has acted less like a liquid levered version of levered US equity beta and more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is,” Greg Cipolaro, the global head of research at NYDIG, wrote in a note.
While the cryptocurrency’s longer-term correlation to U.S. equities remains high, the short-term price action points to a market starting to treat BTC less like a tech stock proxy and more like a non-sovereign safe haven, according to NYDIG’s report.
Options and futures data suggest bitcoin’s rally, which saw it rise 9% last week, is still in its early stages. Funding rates for offshore perpetual swaps only recently turned positive, and call overwriting remains more popular than aggressive bullish positioning.
Bitcoin’s appeal as a politically neutral asset appears to be growing. The note shows that since President Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day,” bitcoin has outperformed U.S. Treasuries, the Swiss franc and gold.
The broader backdrop remains volatile. Measures of equity (VIX), bond (MOVE), and currency (CVIX) volatility have jumped in recent weeks. While they are expected to recede slightly, the outlook is for them to remain elevated for the foreseeable future, the note said.
Despite bitcoin’s growing appeal, macro and geopolitical events remain “the primary drivers of flow,” according to Jake O., an OTC trader at Wintermute who flagged in an email that bitcoin call calendar spreads targeting $110,000 in June remain “the preferred structure for those reaching for topside.”
This week investors will see an inflow of major corporate earnings reports, as well as the latest consumer income and expenditure report and April’s nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The data could provide further insights into a potential earlier-than-expected interest-rate cut, which Trump has been calling for. Stay alert!
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
By Shaurya Malwa
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Source: Farside Investors
Crypto lender Nexo said it is reentering the U.S., marking a comeback two years after regulatory friction forced its exit.
“America is back and so is Nexo,” Co-founder Antoni Trenchev said at a press event Sunday in Bulgaria with Donald Trump Jr., crediting what he described as a more favorable environment for innovation under the Trump presidency.
“Thanks to the vision and leadership of President Donald J. Trump, his administration, and his family, the United States is once again a place where innovation is championed, not stifled. A place where pioneers are celebrated,” Trenchev said, according to a press release.
Now managing $11 billion in assets, Nexo said it will offer its full suite of services to U.S. retail and institutional clients, including high-yield savings products, asset-backed credit lines, and advanced trading solutions.
Nexo withdrew from the U.S. in late 2022 after what it called a “dead end” in negotiations with state and federal regulators over its Earn Interest Product, as well as the market turmoil following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX and a wider crackdown on crypto lenders, CoinDesk reported at the time.
The company said in 2022 it could no longer operate in an “impossible environment” following multiple enforcement actions, including from California and New York.
On-chain researcher ZachXBT may have determined why privacy coin Monero (XMR) surged as much as 40% early Monday: Someone probably got hacked.
ZachXBT reported that 3,520 bitcoin (BTC) ($330.7 million) was drained from an address and then swapped for XMR.
Market data shows a spike in volatility coming from an excess in buy orders for the XMR-BTC order book.
Market observers initially had a hard time determining what caused the major spike as metrics such as active wallets and network activity hadn’t risen accordingly.
Liquidity for XMR has been limited during the past few months as major exchanges delisted the privacy token in a bid to fight dark net markets. The lack of liquidity would have made any sizeable buy a catalyst for outsized pricing gains. CoinGecko data shows that the order depth for XMR is significantly smaller than for tokens of similar market cap.
XMR is trading for over $300 according to CoinDesk markets data.
Bitcoin (BTC) returned to positive territory for the year for the first time in almost two months, approaching $95,000 and erasing a drop of as much as 18%.
Its current performance, up less 1.5% since Dec. 31, places it between gold, which has gained 24% and the Nasdaq 100, which is down over 7%. As a result, the narrative positioning bitcoin as either a leveraged tech stock or digital gold is leaning slightly toward the digital gold narrative. But only just.
Analyzing bitcoin’s correlation coefficients over a 30-day moving average, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization now shows a strong correlation of 0.70 with gold and a weaker 0.53 correlation with the Nasdaq 100. This suggests bitcoin is aligning more closely with gold’s behavior than with tech equities. Correlation values can run between 1, a strong positive correlation, and -1, a strong negative correlation.
Last week, the bitcoin price rose 10%, its strongest performance since the week ended Nov. 17 during price run following President Donald Trump’s election victory.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs continue to feed economic uncertainty. U.S. levies on Chinese goods were raised to 145% earlier this month, leading to a significant drop in cargo shipment demand, according to Bloomberg. As noted in the report, major retailers like Walmart are warning that empty shelves and higher prices could return, reminiscent of the COVID era.
Crypto markets traded flat during the Asia morning hours, with bitcoin (BTC) trading above $94,000 and the CoinDesk 20, a measure of the performance of the largest cryptocurrencies flat.
XRP led majors gains with a 4% move higher from the past day, driven by a ProShares ETF approval that will see three futures-tracked products go live on April 30. Cardano’s ADA, BNB Chain’s BNB and ether (ETH) showed moves between 1-3%.
One exception to the relatively dormant market has been privacy coin Monero (XMR), up more than 40% in the past 24 hours. It traded over $320 in Asian morning hours Monday, a level last seen in May 2021.
Trading volumes zoomed from an average of $50 million on a 7-day rolling basis to over $220 million in the past 24 hours.
“There appears to be no clear catalyst behind $XMR’s recent rally,” Min Junng, a research analyst at Presto told CoinDesk in a Telegram message, Network activity remains consistent with typical levels, suggesting the move may be more speculative in nature.”
The privacy-centric token is based on the CryptoNote protocol, which ensures that all its transactions are unlinkable and untraceable.
Sentiment among traders carries over from last week with a near-term bullish view intact but with a cautious attitude as macroeconomic headwinds remain.
“Bitcoin has maintained a relatively stable range above $92k as Trump’s administration soften tariff policies of the crypto industry,” Jupiter Zheng, Partner, Liquid Fund and Research, HashKey Capital, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “This crypto-friendly attitude can boost Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to develop their own market direction, less correlated with US equities, and enable more growth and innovation in the industry.”
Broader equity markets showed mixed movements on Monday. A regional gauge advanced 0.6% while futures for the S&P 500 declined 0.6%, indicating a four-day US equities rally may snap. Gold pared last week’s gains after a record-breaking rally. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was also flat as were other major indices around Asia.
Exchange-traded funds (ETF) issuer ProShares will introduce three XRP-tracked products this week after a tacit U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval.
It will launch an Ultra XRP ETF (2x leverage), a Short XRP ETF and an Ultra Short XRP ETF (-2x leverage), filings show. Its spot XRP approval stays hanging, however. The SEC has acknowledged several XRP spot ETF applications so far, with fund manager Grayscale’s filing facing a critical May 22 deadline.
ProShares’ approvals come weeks after Teucrium’s 2x XRP ETF started trading earlier this month, becoming the first XRP ETF in the U.S. It racked over $5 million in trading volumes on the first day, becoming the firm’s “most successful” launch to date.
Last week, the CME Group added XRP futures to its largest derivatives exchange in the U.S., alongside BTC, ETH and SOL products.
The flurry of ETFs tracking XRP comes after closely related company Ripple’s long-standing court battle against the SEC, which was fully concluded in March, clearing extensive regulatory headwinds for the tokens.
April has been a month of extreme volatility and tumultuous times for traders.
From conflicting headlines about President Donald Trump’s tariffs against other nations to total confusion about which assets to seek shelter in, it has been one for the record books.
Amid all the confusion, when traditional “haven assets” failed to act as safe places to park money, one bright spot emerged that might have surprised some market participants: bitcoin.
“Historically, cash (the US dollar), bonds (US Treasuries), the Swiss Franc, and gold have fulfilled that role [safe haven], with bitcoin edging in on some of that territory,” said NYDIG Research in a note.
NYDIG’s data showed that while gold and Swiss Franc had been consistent safe-haven winners, since ‘Liberation Day’—when President Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes on April 2, kicking off extreme volatility in the market—bitcoin has been added to the list.
“Bitcoin has acted less like a liquid levered version of levered US equity beta and more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is,” NYDIG wrote.
Zooming out, it seems that as the “sell America” trade gains momentum, investors are taking notice of bitcoin and the original promise of the biggest cryptocurrency.
“Though the connection is still tentative, bitcoin appears to be fulfilling its original promise as a non-sovereign store of value, designed to thrive in times like these,” NYDIG added.
Read more: Gold and Bonds’ Safe Haven Allure May be Fading With Bitcoin Emergence
