Coindesk

Bitcoin’s (BTC) on-chain metrics are flashing a key signal once again, as the short-term holder (STH) MVRV ratio fell to 0.82 — a level historically associated with market stress and capitulation, according to Glassnode data.

This metric compares the market value (current BTC price) to the realized price (average cost basis of coins held by short-term holders). A STH MVRV value below 1.0 indicates that recent buyers are, on average, underwater, holding unrealized losses. At 0.82, this means short-term holders are down roughly 18% on average, a sign that many are experiencing significant pain.

This level closely mirrors previous MVRV cycle lows: 0.84 in August 2024 and 0.77 in November 2022, both of which preceded market bottoms and trend reversals.

Historically, such deep MVRV drawdowns have marked periods where weak hands capitulate and smart money accumulates.

According to Glassnode data, since February, long-term holders (investors holding for 155 days or more) have increased their cohort supply by approximately 500,000 BTC.

In contrast, short-term holders have distributed over 300,000 BTC, driven by a mix of profit-taking and capitulation. This imbalance indicates that long-term holders are accumulating more BTC than short-term holders are selling.

The crypto bull run may have ended, with the market poised for a winter characterized by prolonged losses and stagnation, according to Coinbase’s institutional arm.

“The 200DMA model on bitcoin does suggest that the token’s recent steep decline qualifies this as a bear market cycle starting in late March. But the same exercise performed on the COIN50 index (which includes the top 50 tokens by market capitalization) shows the asset class as a whole has been unequivocally trading in bear market territory since the end of February,” David Duong, global head of research at Coinbase Institutional, said in a note published Monday.

Bitcoin slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 9 and has since established a foothold below the same in a sign of a long-term bearish shift in momentum. The 200-day SMA is widely tracked to gauge long-term trends, with persistent moves above the same, representing a bull market and vice versa.

Duong noted this observation while addressing the challenges of identifying a crypto bear market, where 20% or more corrections are routine. In contrast, a 20% decline is typically used to define bear markets in stock markets.

The report argued that the arbitrary 20% often fails to account for a dent in investor sentiment and resulting portfolio adjustments spurred by smaller, more intense sell-offs.

“We’ve seen in the past that sentiment-driven declines can often trigger defensive portfolio adjustments, despite not meeting the arbitrary 20% threshold. In other words, we believe that bear markets fundamentally represent regime shifts in market structure – characterized by deteriorating fundamentals and shrinking liquidity – rather than just their percentage declines,” Duong noted.

In addition to the 200-day SMA, Duong highlighted bitcoin’s risk-adjusted performance measured in standard deviations (z-score) relative to the average performance over the previous 365 days as another effective method for identifying crypto bear markets.

“Our [z-score] model indicates that the most recent bull cycle ended in late February. But it has since classified all subsequent activity as “neutral,” highlighting its potential lag in rapidly changing market dynamics,” Duong said, calling for a defensive stance on risk asses for the time being.

The impending winter may be more brutal for alternative cryptocurrencies considering the slowdown in the venture capital (VC) funding.

While BTC set new highs early this year, well above the 2021 top of $70K, the bullish trend failed to inspire more risk taking in the VC space, leaving the overall funding 50%-60% below 2021-22 levels.

Duong said that the crypto market “may find a floor in mid-to-late 2Q25 – setting up a better 3Q25.”

Global markets are again under pressure following an escalation in U.S.–China trade tensions, with investors fleeing to havens and tech stocks taking a beating.

Gold surged over 2% on Wednesday to top $3,300 per ounce and set a new record high. The dollar weakened further, and Nasdaq futures pointed to a rough day ahead for Wall Street.

On Tuesday, the White House announced tariffs of up to 245% on Chinese imports in response to China’s retaliatory measures and bans on exports of key strategic materials, including rare earth elements, gallium and germanium that are used the production of high-speed computer chips. The move follows an Executive Order launching an investigation into national security risks tied to U.S. dependence on foreign critical minerals.

Markets reacted swiftly. The Dollar Index (DXY) fell back below 100, signaling reduced investor confidence in the U.S. currency. Meanwhile, the euro strengthened to $1.13 and the yen to 142 per dollar.

Equities struggled. Nasdaq futures dropped more than 2%, with tech stocks particularly hard hit. Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell 7% pre-market after the company disclosed that new U.S. export controls on AI chips to China would cost it $5.5 billion in lost revenue. The announcement raised concerns of broader earnings hits across the semiconductor industry , which relies heavily on Chinese demand.

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped slightly to $83,000 following the news, reflecting its stronger correlation with U.S. tech stocks rather than acting as a safe-haven asset like gold.

Disclaimer: This article, or parts of it, was generated with assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) and major cryptocurrencies fell over 3% as profit-taking followed Tuesday’s rally.

Overall crypto market capitalization fell 3.3% in the past 24 hours, with BTC sliding to nearly $83,500 from a high above $84,200 a day earlier. Ether (ETH) and Cardano’s ADA fell as much as 5% to lead losses among majors.

The cryptocurrency market added 8% over 7 days, stabilising at the $2.7 trillion level since Saturday.

FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich says a move higher could bolster hopes for further gains, but these expectations will “only be confirmed after a solid consolidation above the 200-day moving average, which is now near $2.97 trillion.“

“Bitcoin continues its cautious rise, trading above its 50-day moving average and reaching $85,700. This is an important technical attempt to reverse the downtrend. Interestingly, the 200-day average is quite close, so a second confirmation of a trend change could come quite quickly,” Kuptsikevich said, adding that bitcoin had entered a resistance accumulation zone where the “strength of the initial rebound may fade.”

Solana’s SOL is showing strength in a downtrodden market, making it ripe for a move higher if overall conditions improve.

“Solana is recovering faster than many of the major altcoins, trading at its 50-day moving average near $130. A consolidation above this level will open the way to $145, the area of previous peaks. A sustained move above them will signal a break of the downtrend and could lead to a move towards $180,” Kuptsikevich noted.

On a more pessimistic approach, prominent market chartist Peter Brandt is not optimistic about bitcoin setting new highs in the current cycle.

“A trendline violation does NOT signify a transition of trend BTC Sorry,” the trader noted said in an X post in response to sentiment for a bullish rebound.

Trendlines are a subjective price-action analyst method and less dependable than moving averages or key levels. A break, used in tandem with technical analysis, could hint at a change in movement.

Here’s what AI-driven market insights for some majors look like on Wednesday.

Dogecoin Price Analysis as Whales Accumulate 800M DOGE

Dogecoin whales have accumulated over 800 million DOGE in the last 48 hours, signaling potential confidence in the asset’s short-term prospects, data shows.

DOGE is currently trading at a critical juncture around $0.154-$0.155, with immediate resistance at $0.157 and crucial support at $0.153 that must hold to prevent further decline.

DOGE experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $0.169 before entering a pronounced downtrend with lower highs and lower lows since April 14th.

Support levels established around $0.155 have been repeatedly tested, with volume spikes coinciding with major price movements.

The 48-hour Fibonacci retracement shows price currently hovering near the 0.618 level, suggesting potential consolidation before the next directional move.

A sharp selloff occurred between 05:19-05:24, with price plummeting 1.1% in just five minutes on exceptionally high volume (15.3M in a single minute).

The subsequent bounce formed a potential double bottom at $0.153, with price currently consolidating around $0.154.

Volume analysis shows clear distribution before the drop and accumulation during the recovery attempt.

Solana Shows Consolidation

Recent price action shows SOL navigating volatility as geopolitical factors create market uncertainty.

Solana (SOL) experiences significant price volatility, consolidating between $125-$132 after a 13.7% surge from $119.59 to $136.01.

Solana leads decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, outpacing Ethereum for three consecutive days with $2.43 billion in trading activity.

Recent trading shows SOL consolidating between $125-$132, with key support established at $125.25.

Volume analysis reveals diminishing buying interest after the initial rally, suggesting market indecision.

The 50-hour moving average at $129.80 now serves as a critical pivot point.

Fibonacci retracement levels indicate potential support at $127.40 (38.2%) if current levels fail to hold.

Cardano Sees 8% Bellyflop in Volatile Session

ADA experienced significant volatility, surging from $0.618 to a peak of $0.667 (8.0% range) before undergoing a substantial correction.

Recent trading shows ADA consolidating between $0.605-$0.615, with increased volume during downward movements suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Trading data reveals increasing volume during downward price movements, suggesting persistent selling pressure despite oversold conditions on 48-hour momentum indicators.

While some accumulation appears to be occurring at lower levels, potentially forming a base for recovery, ADA now faces significant overhead resistance from the 200-hour moving average.

The 200-hour moving average now acts as overhead resistance, reinforcing the bearish trend. 48-hour momentum indicators reveal oversold conditions, potentially offering short-term relief.

Volume increased significantly during downward movements, confirming selling pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) and other major tokens lost more than 3% as Tuesday’s rally was met with profit-taking during Asian morning hours Wednesday — in line with expectations.

Overall crypto market capitalization fell 3.3% in the past 24 hours, with BTC sliding to nearly $83,500 from a high above $84,200 a day earlier. Ether (ETH) and Cardano’s ADA fell as much as 5% to lead losses among majors.

XRP showed steady declines, with price action suggesting a plunge in the coming days. Fundamentals showed a positive bump, however, with exchange-traded fund (ETF) provider ProShares amending its spot XRP ETF (to be offered in the U.S.) filing on Tuesday — targeting a launch date of April 30.

Bitcoin selling by large investors has eased as they realize losses, on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant shared in a note to CoinDesk. Daily bitcoin selling from large investors has declined from a high of 800,000 BTC in late February to a daily rate of about 300,000 BTC.

“The slowdown in selling has come as these investors have been realizing losses since late February amid low prices,” analysts wrote. “However, accumulation by large investors remains weak. Their holdings declined by approximately 30K BTC over the past week, and their monthly accumulation rate dropped from 2.7% at the end of March to just 0.5%—its slowest pace since February 20.”

A slump in majors came as Chinese stocks in Hong Kong extended their losses to as much as 2.9% after Wednesday’s open despite the Chinese economy growing 5.4% in the first quarter.

The extent of tariff impact remains a concern among traders, whose risk-off moves eventually weigh down crypto markets.

“There can be no doubt that fears of a U.S. recession are intensifying, with major institutions revising their forecasts sharply upwards,” James Toledano, Chief Operating Officer at Unity Wallet, told CoinDesk in an email. “Economic growth is forecast to stall at anywhere between 0.1% and 1%, and many believe these risks are already priced into equities, but I am not so sure that we’ve even seen the bottom.”

“It does however feel that Bitcoin’s appeal as a decentralized asset grows, especially as traditional markets face volatility. While Trump’s policies have introduced significant macroeconomic uncertainty, they may paradoxically be fueling Bitcoin’s recent rise—though the risks remain elevated for all markets, crypto included,” Toledano added.

Payments-focused XRP’s immediate prospects look bleak, with its price chart flashing a “rising wedge” breakdown.

A rising wedge comprises two converging trendlines that connect higher lows and higher highs. This convergence suggests that upward momentum is weakening. When the price moves below the lower trendline, it signals a shift to a bearish trend.

XRP dived out of its rising wedge pattern during Wednesday’s early Asian hours, suggesting that the attempted recovery from the April 7 lows near $1.60 has likely lost momentum, allowing sellers to regain control.

According to technical analysis theory, analysts should identify the starting point of the rising wedge as the initial support level following the breakdown, which means XRP can now fall back to $1.60. The cryptocurrency has also fallen below the Ichimoku Cloud, a momentum indicator, on the hourly chart, reinforcing the bearish outlook indicated by the rising wedge breakdown.

Tuesday’s high of $2.18 is the level for bulls to beat to invalidate the bearish outlook.

Noble, a blockchain for issuing real-world assets (RWA) and stablecoins, announced Wednesday that it will expand its platform by introducing “AppLayer,” an Ethereum-compatible rollup that allows developers to create their own RWA applications and infrastructure.

Noble’s AppLayer aims to let developers build new financial tools optimized for real-world assets like stablecoins — digital assets whose value is pegged to another asset, like the U.S. dollar.

AppLayer will leverage Celestia, a data availability blockchain that aims to bring down storage costs for data-intensive blockchain networks. Celestia, like Noble, is plugged into the Cosmos blockchain ecosystem and is compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), meaning it can read smart contracts from other Ethereum-based chains.

The Noble team stated in a press release viewed by CoinDesk that it will launch its Ethereum-compatible AppLayer rollup in the third quarter of 2025.

“Noble plans to unlock its cross-ecosystem potential as EVM applications continue to seek reliable and seamless access to native stablecoin liquidity,” the team wrote. “Noble’s AppLayer will be seamlessly integrated with a number of blue chip DeFi projects born in the Ethereum ecosystem.”

Stablecoins have received considerable attention in recent weeks, with the U.S. Congress preparing significant stablecoin legislation later this year. Entities including President Trump’s World-Liberty Financial, banking giant Fidelity, and the U.S. state of Wyoming have also expressed plans to create their own stablecoins.

Noble launched in March 2023 as an application-specific blockchain, or “appchain,” purpose-built for stablecoin issuance within the Cosmos ecosystem. Initially, it aimed to expand liquidity Cosmos by enabling native asset issuance through the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol, which is the technology used by Cosmos-based blockchains to transfer assets and other data.

Over time, Noble has extended its reach beyond Cosmos, integrating with Ethereum and other ecosystems to facilitate quick stablecoin transfers. Additionally, in March, Noble introduced USDN, a yield-bearing stablecoin backed by U.S. Treasury bills.

“Building stablecoin issuance infrastructure over the past two years has given us a deep appreciation for the transformative potential of stablecoins to onboard the world to crypto,” said Jelena Djuric, co-founder and CEO at Noble, in the press release. “The Noble AppLayer, built with Celestia’s technology underneath, finally gives builders the freedom to build highly scalable and performant stablecoin-native applications.”

Read more: How a Ph.D. Student’s Research Paper Turned Celestia Into $345M Blockchain Project Overnight

Seychelles-based cryptocurrency exchange OKX is expanding to the U.S., establishing a new regional headquarters in San Jose, California and rolling out access to its platform and its native OKX Wallet to U.S.-based crypto traders.

In a Tuesday evening announcement, newly-appointed CEO Roshan Robert said the expansion was “a commitment to responsible growth.” Robert was most recently an executive at institutional crypto lending platform CLST, and was a founding team member of crypto prime broker Hidden Road, which was recently acquired by Ripple for $1.25 billion.

“As regulations evolve, OKX is working closely with US regulators and policymakers to ensure we operate transparently and compliantly,” Robert wrote. “We’ve built a comprehensive, risk-based global compliance program that includes enhanced due diligence, a robust KYC process, customer risk rating systems, advanced fraud detection, AML tools, geo-blocking, and market surveillance technologies. These are all part of our commitment to a secure, compliant trading environment.”

Two months ago, a subsidiary of OKX settled charges that it had operated in the U.S. without a money transmitting license, agreeing to pay the Department of Justice (DOJ) over $500 million in penalties and forfeited fees. The DOJ alleged that, despite having an official policy prohibiting U.S.-based users from accessing its platform, OKX “sought out customers in the United States, including in the Southern District of New York.”

Read more: After Binance’s $4.3B Lesson, Do Rival Exchanges Risk Running Afoul of U.S. Rules?

OKX is not the first crypto company to eye an expansion or a return to the U.S., which has grown considerably friendlier to the crypto industry under U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. Earlier this month, token launch platform CoinList announced a return to the U.S. after five years away, and bigger names — including Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange — are reportedly considering returning to the U.S.

Existing customers of OKCoin, the U.S.-accessible sister company of OKX, will be “seamlessly migrated” to the OKX platform, which will offer customers “deeper liquidity, lower fees and advanced trading tools,” according to the company’s launch announcement.

The mood in the equity and crypto market turned sour late Wednesday as Nvidia shares crashed in after-hours trading following a $5.5 billion charge tied to the Trump administration’s decision to ban the company’s H20 chip sales to China.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, fell to $83,600, extending the retreat from the two-week high of $86,440 reached earlier in the day, CoinDesk data showed. Payments-focused XRP followed a similar trajectory, falling over 2% to $2.08, while Cardano’s ADA token slipped 4% to $0.61. The CoinDesk 20 Index, a broader market gauge, weakened over 2%.

Meanwhile, coins supposedly associated with artificial intelligence (AI) continued to fare worse as shares in NVDA tanked 8% to $89.10 after the company disclosed in a regulatory filing that it expects to write down $5.5 billion in the fiscal first quarter due to the new restrictions on exports of its H20 chip to China.

The news came a day after unusual activity in NVDA put options pointing to an impending market swoon.

The futures tied to the Nasdaq index fell over 1% as well, offering negative cues to risk assets in general.

The next catalyst awaiting release Wednesday morning Eastern time is the U.S. retail sales report for March. Per economists polled by Dow Jones, the data is expected to show a 1.2% increase in consumer spending on the month, up from a 0.2% climb in February.

A better-than-expected report will likely help assuage recession fears triggered by President Donald Trump’s trade war with China and other trading partners. However, there is a risk that markets will dismiss it as backward-looking, failing to account for the major escalation in trade tensions seen this month.

Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak on Wednesday at the Economic Club of Chicago on his outlook for the U.S. economy.

“All eyes are on Powell. Markets are holding their breath for Powell on Wednesday. Between the trade war and rising recession chatter, traders are watching for any hint the Fed might be forced to cut sooner than expected,” Secure Digital Markets said in Tuesday’s research note.

The forward-looking market-based measures like the inflation breakevens have dropped amid trade tensions, pointing to the disinflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs. That could provide the Fed with a leeway to cut rates.

Early this week, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the bank would be forced to quickly make a series of “bad news” rate cuts if the U.S. president reimposes the levies unveiled on April 2. Trump announced sweeping tariffs on 180 nations on April 2 but quickly suspended the same for most nations, excluding China, for 90 days.

Read more: Bitcoin Hovers at $85K as Fed’s Waller Suggests ‘Bad News’ Rate Cuts if Tariffs Resume

Healthcare technology firm Semler Scientific has reached a tentative settlement agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), disclosing in a Tuesday filing that it was prepared to pay a $29.75 million fine in order to settle all claims tied to potential violations of a federal anti-fraud law related to its marketing of QuantaFlo, its flagship product.

Last month, Semler Scientific disclosed that it had received a civil investigative demand, or CID — essentially, a subpoena from a federal agency that typically precedes a lawsuit — from the DOJ back in 2017. In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Semler Scientific said it had complied with several subsequent subpoenas over the following years and began initial settlement discussions with the DOJ in February.

The investigation into Semler Scientific’s marketing of QuantaFlo is unrelated to its bitcoin holdings.

In its Tuesday 8-K filing with the SEC, Semler Scientific — a large corporate holder of bitcoin — said that it had inked an agreement with crypto exchange Coinbase allowing it to borrow both cash and digital assets, using its bitcoin holdings as collateral. If the company’s settlement agreement with the DOJ is approved, it said in the filing, Semler Scientific “intends to borrow under the Coinbase master loan agreement and use such proceeds (along with its cash on hand) to pay the proposed settlement with DOJ.”

Semler Scientific’s settlement agreement with the DOJ is in principle, meaning that it is not yet set in stone. In its Tuesday filing, the company warned investors that if the parties are unable to come to a final agreement, there is still a risk that the DOJ could file charges against the company “seeking damages in excess of such agreed settlement amount.”

“Should the parties not be able to reach settlement and DOJ file a complaint, Semler Sci intends to vigorously defend itself in any such action,” the firm said in its filing.

Semler Scientific currently holds 3,192 bitcoins, a stockpile worth approximately $267 million at today’s price.