Coindesk

Analysis of on-chain data curated by DefiLlama shows that nearly $100 million in ether (ETH) positions are at risk if the price slides by 15%.

Traders in Asia faced a sea of red during the Monday business day as the ripple effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy were felt around the world.

ETH is down nearly 16% Monday, according to CoinDesk data, now trading above $1490, while the CoinDesk 20 index is down 13%, and market participants fear that the U.S. open could bring more pain.

Should the U.S. open bring another 15% drop in ETH’s price, sending it below $1,274, more than $100 million in leveraged positions could face imminent liquidation.

On-chain liquidations are potentially more impactful than those related to derivatives as it involves spot assets being sold onto the market. In MakerDAO’s case, a liquidated position is auctioned off at a cheaper rate to traders who can then sell at a relative premium, flooding the market with supply and creating more sell pressure.

One wallet which would get liquidated at $1418 had a number of close calls Monday but trimmed its holdings of ETH and paid back repaid some of the DAI it owed.

DeFiLlama data also shows that should the price of ETH sink by 20%, another $36 million is at risk.

The largest single ETH position, with $147 million in collateral locked, has a strike price of $1,132.

Lending protocols were some of the hardest hit tokens during the Monday Asia trading day, with CoinGecko data showing that the category is down 17% on-day as concern grows about the health of levarage around some positions.

Financial markets are in a meltdown and every leg lower is strengthening expectations in the credit market that the Fed will soon offer support.

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market value, traded 8% lower at $75,800 and the U.S. stocks were on track for their worst three-day performance, with S&P 500 futures down roughly 5% on Monday alone and losses approaching 15% overall.

The Fed has a history of intervening during financial meltdowns with rate cuts and other stimulus measures. So, traders, having become accustomed to liquidity support, are betting that the Fed will act similarly this time.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the federal funds futures market is now pricing in as many as five rate cuts in 2025. For the upcoming May 7 meeting, there’s a 61% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which would lower the target range to 4.25–4.50%. By year-end, the market sees the fed funds rate falling as low as 3.00–3.25%.

The risk-off, coupled with the growth scare and Fed rate cut bets, is giving Trump administration what it wants – plunging Treasury yields. The all-important 10-year yield — the benchmark for the U.S. economy — has dropped to 3.923%.

The popular narrative is that lower yields would make it easier for the Treasury to refinance trillions of dollars in debt in the coming 12 months, which is why the Trump administration may be more tolerant of the asset market swoon.

This refinancing urgency stems from a policy shift under former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who moved from longer-dated coupon issuance to short-term Treasury bills. Since 2023, about two-thirds of the deficit had been financed through bill issuance — short-term debt with rates hovering around 5%. While this may have temporarily supported liquidity, it created a ticking time bomb of expensive short-term debt that now needs to be rolled over.

Disclosure: The author of this story owns shares in Strategy (MSTR).

As the crypto market’s correction kicks off, days after traditional financial markets started reacting to President Donald Trump’s tariffs, bitcoin (BTC) slumped to its lowest level in five months, dropping to as low as $74,500 and marking a full one-third drop from the record high it hit Jan. 20.

This slide has left Strategy (MSTR) marginally in the green on its bitcoin acquisition strategy. At a total cost of $35.6 billion, the company currently holds an unrealized profit of about 10%, or roughly $3.9 billion on its BTC investment.

Strategy owns 528,185 BTC, now valued at $39.5 billion, giving it an average cost basis of $67,458 per bitcoin. The company’s mNAV multiple — market cap divided by the value of the holdings — sits just under 2, indicating the stock still trades at a premium.
According to CoinDesk research, MSTR faces no liquidation risk even if bitcoin falls below its cost basis.

As of April 2, Metaplanet (3350) disclosed bitcoin holdings of 4,206 BTC purchased at an average price of 12,925,027 yen ($88,800) per coin. That puts the Japanese company about 15% underwater on its bitcoin strategy. The stock dropped 20% on Monday alone, reflecting mounting pressure from the downturn.

Semler Scientific (SMLR) has also seen losses on its bitcoin holdings, with an average acquisition cost of $87,854 per BTC, according to the most recent filing in February.

With bitcoin down 20% this year, Semler has lost 38%, Metaplanet 15% and Strategy 2%.

A crypto market sell-off went from bad to brutal in European morning hours Monday as bitcoin pierced the $75,000 level — extending losses on major tokens to nearly 20%.

Tokens XRP, solana (SOL), and dogecoin (DOGE) plunged over 5% in the hours ahead of the European open, erasing tens of billions in market capitalization, driven by a cascade of macroeconomic uncertainty and aggressive liquidations that neared $1 billion.

The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, which tracks the largest tokens, slumped 12%, signaling a widespread risk-off sentiment gripping the sector.

XRP and SOL led the decline, each nosediving more than 20% in the past 24 hours and breaking under critical support levels. XRP, trading at $1.70, has slipped below its critical 200-day moving average — a key technical support level — raising fears of further downside toward $1.75.

SOL, meanwhile, dropped under $100, breaching its 50-day moving average and marking a 64% retreat from its all-time high. DOGE, the meme coin darling, wasn’t spared, tumbling 20% to $0.13, as a CoinDesk analysis noted earlier Monday.

President Donald Trump’s recent 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, coupled with a doubled 20% levy on China, have sparked retaliatory threats.

China is mulling front-loaded stimulus to counter these measures, adding to market jitters, as reported. Investors are fleeing risk assets for safe havens like gold, the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar.

Meanwhile, traders expect the market decline to continue through the Asian day ahead of the U.S. open

“Historically, crypto markets tend to front-run stock markets over the weekend, and this morning’s Asia market declines seem to have reinforced this belief,” Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “We expect crypto markets to dip once US markets open.”

“As to whether or not they’ll recover depends on which large countries are able to secure short-term tariff delays or deals this week. Thus far, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Taiwan have already pledged to lower their own tariffs and/or increase US investment in exchange for relief, but we would need a larger trading partner like Japan or China to do so to restore confidence and certainty in the markets,” Mei added.

Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, said current price action was displaying bear market behaviour.

“All the signs suggest that macro markets are now in ‘bear market’ mode, rallies are to be sold, and investors will be forced to accept this new reality against the long-term wagers being made,” Fan said in a Telegram message. “The market will likely continue to frustrate and shake investor confidence for quite a while longer.”

“Over the longer term, charts might argue that BTC has broken out against global equities and is overdue to catch up with spot gold, but catalysts appear to be fleeting at this time and risk management (ie. lower prices) will likely dominate until global stops melting down,” Fan ended.

Roughly 10 weeks ago, CoinDesk discussed a double top bearish reversal pattern in bitcoin (BTC), warning of a sell-off to $75,000 in a move typical of a bull-market pull back.

On Monday, the price dropped below that level as escalating trade tensions cratered financial markets, sending Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lower by a whooping 900 points. According to technical analysis theory, the BTC sell-off could run out of steam between $70K and $75K, as discussed in January.

Besides, the Australian dollar (AUD), a commodity currency particularly vulnerable to Trump-led global trade tensions, is offering hope to crypto bulls. The AUD/USD pair has recovered to 0.6011 after dropping as low as 0.5930 earlier Monday, according to data source TradingView. The pair was the worst hit on Friday, falling over 4%, a big move for a national currency.

When trade tensions escalate, currencies of nations involved in the tussle typically react quickly due to expected changes in trade balances, economic conditions and interest-rate expectations. The AUD is one such currency. As the home currency of commodity exporter Australia, it’s seen as a proxy for China, one of the country’s biggest customers. So, the sharp recovery in the AUD could be a sign of tariffs-led sell-off reaching climax.

That said, bottom fishing in a falling market is akin to catching a falling knife, a risky strategy.

Crypto majors are reeling from a wave of volatility, with XRP, Cardano (ADA), and Dogecoin (DOGE) plunging below key technical support levels early on Monday.

Macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from a global tariff war — dubbed an “economic nuclear war” by hedge fund manager Bill Ackman — is reeling markets from crypto to global equities, with bitcoin under $79,000 and major tokens down 14%.

XRP Price Analysis

XRP, which powers the XRP Ledger, slipped to $1.90 with a 14%. On the daily chart, XRP has breached its critical support at $2.00 — a level that previously held firm as psychological and technical bedrock. This breakdown completes a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, a signal of potential further downside.

Technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook. The 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) sits at $2.20, acting as a resistance after XRP failed to reclaim it in past weeks. The relative strength index (RSI) has dipped into negative territory, hovering near 30, suggesting selling pressure outweighs buying interest.

ADA Price Analysis

Cardano’s ADA token trades at 55 cents, down 12% in the past 24 hours, below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), a critical support that had propped up the price since mid-March. This breach on the daily chart aligns with a broader descending triangle pattern, hinting at continued bearish control.

The RSI for ADA sits at 38, teetering on the edge of oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bearish crossover, with the signal line dipping below the MACD line.

The next support lies at nearly 35 cents, a level tested in late 2024, but a break below could drag ADA toward $0.40, a 30% drop from current levels.

Bulls would need to reclaim 60 cents and flip it into support to negate the bearish thesis, though macroeconomic headwinds — fueled by tariff threats and a 20% crypto market cap loss this year — make that a tall order.

DOGE Price Analysis

Memecoin darling dogecoin (DOGE) has tumbled to $0.16, down nearly 15% in the last 24 hours. It sliced through support at 18 cents, a level that marked the base of a consolidation range since early March.

On the 4-hour chart, a death cross has emerged, with the 50-period SMA crossing below the 200-period SMA, signaling a potential trend reversal to the downside.

The RSI for DOGE is deep in oversold territory at 28, hinting at possible short-term relief, but the 20-day EMA at $0.21 looms as a stiff resistance. If bears maintain control, DOGE could sink to $0.14, aligning with its December 2024 lows.

Beijing is said to be discussing front-loading monetary stimulus to counter the destabilizing impact President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the Chinese economy, according to data source Trade The News.

The reports come a day after Trump said he won’t make a trade deal with China unless the trade deficit is solved. Financial markets have crashed with bitcoin falling under $80K since Trump announced gigantic reciprocal tariffs Thursday, boosting trade tensions.

Goldman Sachs now expects a total of 130 basis points in Fed rate cuts for 2025, up from 105 basis points late last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to deliver four rate cuts.

CME’s bitcoin futures, considered a proxy for institutional activity, gapped lower Monday in a sign of bearish sentiment after President Donald Trump ruled out a trade deal with China.

The futures contract due to expire on the last Friday of April began trading at $79,590, down 5.6% from Friday’s close of $84,250 and quickly descended to $76,800, CoinDesk data show.

The losses came as Dow futures fell 900 points, Chinese stocks crashed, and the Japanese equity market slipped into lower circuit breakers as JPMorgan, S&P Global, and Goldman Sachs increased the probability of the U.S. falling into recession this year.

On Sunday, Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he wanted to solve the trade deficit with China “and unless we solve that problem, I’m not going to make a deal.”

Trump added that world leaders are dying to make a deal. Last week, the President announced sweeping tariffs on 180 nations, boosting the total levy on China to 54%. Since then, financial markets have wilted, which the President thinks is the necessary medicine to solve the problem.

“I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,” Trump said.

Open interest slides on CME

Open interest in the CME futures peaked in December at 281.57 BTC and has since declined to 140.5K, the lowest since August 2024, according to data source Coinglass.

It’s a sign of money leaving the digital assets space, perhaps in anticipation of a deeper price swoon.

Meanwhile, global futures and perpetual futures open interest, excluding CME, has increased from roughly 400K BTC to 520 BTC in the past four weeks.

An increase in open interest alongside a price drop is said to confirm the bearish trend, indicating that traders are building short positions in a falling market.

Futures tied to major tokens saw over $840 million in long liquidations in the past 24 hours as a bitcoin (BTC) plunge led to losses among major tokens, with some falling nearly 14%.

CoinGlass data shows that bitcoin traders betting on higher prices lost over $322 million, while bets on ether (ETH) lost nearly $290 million. Smaller alternative tokens (altcoins) recorded nearly $400 million in liquidations — with futures tracking xrp (XRP) and Solana’s SOL seeing an unusually high $80 million in cumulative liquidations.

BTC slid to under $77,000 in its worst start to a historically bullish month late Tuesday, with ether (ETH) down 15% to $1,500.

SOL, XRP and dogecoin (DOGE) slid as much as 15%, before slightly recovering in Asian morning hours, with BNB Chain’s bnb holding relatively stronger with a 6% slide. The nosedive in majors was reflected across midcaps and smaller tokens — all showing drops of over 10-20% as per CoinGecko.

Data shows that nearly 86% of all futures bets were bullish. Traders were positioning for higher prices in the weeks ahead on expectations that current ongoings were likely priced in and that markets could see near-term relief.

A liquidation occurs when an exchange forcefully closes a trader’s leveraged position due to the trader’s inability to meet the margin requirements.

Large-scale liquidations can indicate market extremes, like panic selling or buying. A cascade of liquidations might suggest a market turning point, where a price reversal could be imminent due to an overreaction in market sentiment.

Global equities and risk assets such as bitcoin took a hit Monday as investors continue to remain fearful of the fallout from the Trump tariffs, sending U.S. stock index futures lower by about 5% as trading resumed after the weekend.

Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman urged the president not to go through with economic “nuclear war” and instead call a “time out” on Monday.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded above $79,000 Monday morning Asia time as markets around East Asia opened to chaos and carnage as the global sell-off continued.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a measure of the performance of the largest digital assets, is down 8%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is down over 8% during mid-morning trading, while Shanghai’s SSE Composite Index is down 7%, and the Taipei’s TAIEX is down 9%.

Major tech stocks across the region were some of the hardest hit. Alibaba shares in Hong Kong were down 12% while Tencent was down 9%. In Taipei, TSMC stocks dipped 10% in the first few minutes of trading, triggering the exchange’s price variation limit which halts trading in either direction.

TSMC’s correction comes as the White House says that semiconductors from Taiwan are exempt from tariffs, but the future of the CHIPS Act – which bankrolled the construction of semiconductor factories in the U.S. – is in question.

TSMC’s major correction on market open is likely foreshadowing of Nvidia’s open in the U.S. Some analysts say NVDA has become more volatile than BTC or ETH.

Elsewhere in crypto, Ethereum (ETH) is down 11% on-day, XRP is down 9%, and Solana’s SOL is down 10%.

Lending protocols Maker (MKR) and Aave (AAVE) were some of the worst performers on the market, down around 14% each.

Liquidation data from CoinGlass shows that in the last 12 hours around $675 million in long positions have been liquidated, compared to $123 million in shorts.

TRUMP, the Presidential meme coin, is down 13% according on CoinDesk data, putting it behind lending protocol majors as one of the market laggards.