Coindesk

The U.S. stock-market slide prompted by President Donald Trump’s global tariff announcement on Wednesday sent the Nasdaq Composite Index into one of its biggest funks since the start of the century.

The tech-heavy index lost 5.5% on Thursday, just outside the top 20 worst single-day drawdowns since 2000, according to Investing.com. Most of the largest drawdowns occurred during the dot-com crash of 2000-2001 and the 2008 global financial crisis. Other equity measures also suffered, with the S&P 500 index falling almost 5%.

In contrast, the bitcoin (BTC) price, which is typically correlated with U.S. equities over short timeframes, bucked the trend. The largest cryptocurrency, which tumbled immediately after the announcement while stock markets were closed, rose 0.7% the following day, with momentum carrying into Friday, according to Glassnode data.

Bitcoin is now trading above $84,000 compared with about $87,000 before Trump started speaking. Nasdaq futures, meanwhile, are lower ahead of the U.S. jobs report due later in the day.

Bitcoin made its 2025 low in mid-March at around $76,000, whereas the Nasdaq hit a low on Thursday. Year-to-date, bitcoin is outperforming the Nasdaq, losing 10% against the index’s 11%.

Analyst Caleb Franzen highlighted bitcoin’s relative strength compared with the S&P 500 in this risk-off environment, noting its resilience around the 200-day moving average.

“It’s pretty remarkable to see that bitcoin is up +3.4% today relative to the S&P 500, particularly in a risk-off environment. As I’ve recently pointed out, BTC/SPY continues to hold above its 200-day moving average cloud,” Franzen said in a post on X.

As the pivotal U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for March approaches, bitcoin (BTC) bulls find themselves in a situation reminiscent of the character Two-Face (Harvey Dent) from the movie “The Dark Knight,” who flips coins to make decisions, confident of controlling the fate irrespective of the outcome.

It’s a classic case of “heads I win, tails you lose,” which means that bitcoin bulls will likely come out on top after the impending jobs report, regardless of whether the data reveals labor market strength or weakness.

This situation arises from President Donald Trump’s Wednesday announcement of sweeping tariffs affecting 180 nations, prompting forward-looking markets to price in recession risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Consequently, stronger-than-expected jobs data, which typically strengthens the dollar and pressures risk assets like BTC, may be dismissed as outdated, overlooking the recent developments resulting from Trump’s policies. Therefore, any dip in BTC following a potentially hot NFP report could be swiftly reversed, leading to gains.

On the other hand, weak data would only add to recession fears and bolster Fed rate cut bets, stoking renewed risk-taking in financial markets.

At press time, bitcoin changed hands at $84,190, having hit lows below $82,000 Thursday, per CoinDesk data. The fact that prices have stayed well above the $77,000 March low despite peak tariff uncertainty indicates seller fatigue and potential for a price rise.

Volmex’s bitcoin one-day implied volatility index stood at an annualized 65%, indicating an expected price swing of 3.4% in the next 24 hours.

The jobs data is due at 12:30 UTC. According to FactSet, the median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment in March is 130,000, down from February’s 151,000 tally. The jobless rate is forecast to have risen to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Ahead of the data release, rates traders are pricing 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, with the first move expected to happen in June, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

Solana’s SOL token is poised for a potential price swing of almost 6% after some large investors, or whales, dumped their holdings ahead of the U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) report due later Friday.

This estimate comes from Volmex’s one-day implied volatility index (IV) for SOL. At press time, the index showed a one-day reading annualized at 109.70%, indicating an expected 24-hour price volatility of 5.74%. (The daily figure is derived by dividing the annualized volatility by the square root of 365, the number of trading days in a year.)

A movement that size represents moderate volatility, especially considering that the cryptocurrency has experienced several days of 6% or higher volatility since early March, according to data from CoinDesk.

In other words, the market is likely to be volatile, but nothing out of the ordinary.

Whale selling

Data tracked by blockchain sleuth Lookonchain shows several whales unstaked and dumped SOL worth $46.3 million into the market.

Large offloading of coins by whales often leads to bearish price action. However, the amount sold early today equates to 0.97% of the cryptocurrency’s 24-hour trading volume of $4.7 billion.

So, it’s no surprise that SOL is trading little changed at around $116, having printed a low of $112 on Thursday. Broadly speaking, the cryptocurrency has been in a downtrend since reaching a high of $295 on Jan. 19.

Focus on payrolls

The U.S. jobs data, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, is forecast to reveal that the economy added 130,000 jobs in March, slowdown from February’s 151,000 and well below the 12-month average of 162,300, according to FactSet.

The median estimate for the jobless rate for March is is 4.2%, the highest since November and up from February’s 4.1% reading. Average hourly earnings are forecast to have risen 0.3% month-on-month, matching February’s pace.

A weaker-than-expected figure will likely validate renewed pricing for four 25-basis-point interest-rate cuts this year, potentially sending risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, higher.

Filecoin’s FIL token spiked by 30% after South Korean exchange Upbit started listing FIL trading pairs.

The token rose to as high as $3.49 from $2.71 on Coinbase and was recently trading around $3.00. Daily trading volume increased by 68% to $303 million, according to CoinMarketCap.

Upbit said in a tweet that the FIL/KRW trading pair went live at 07:30 UTC.

Tokens listed on South Korean exchanges often trade at a premium because strict financial controls in Korea means that it is difficult for capital to flow in and out of the country, leading to a lack of arbitrage opportunities.

U.S. crypto giant Coinbase Institutional said on Friday it had submitted a filing to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to roll out futures contracts tied to Ripple’s closely related XRP token.

“We’re excited to announce that Coinbase Derivatives has filed with the CFTC to self-certify $XRP futures – bringing a regulated, capital-efficient way to gain exposure to one of the most liquid digital assets,” it said in an X post. “We anticipate the contract going live on April 21, 2025.”

According to the filing, the XRP futures will operate as a monthly, cash-settled, margined contract, trading under the ticker XRL. Each contract mirrors XRP’s price, settled in USD, and represents 10,000 XRP — roughly $20,000 at the current $2 per token valuation.

Traders will have flexibility, with contracts available for the current month plus the following two, though a safeguard halts trading if XRP’s spot price swings over 10% within an hour.

When launched, the product will be the second after Chicago-based Bitnomial’s CFTC-regulated XRP futures that went live in March. XRP prices are down 2% in the past 24 hours, in line with a broader market drop.

An oversold market and reactions to U.S. tariffs may be a thing of the past with traders now eying new economic data and rate cuts in the coming months — with expectations of a bitcoin bounce in the near term.

Crypto markets saw high volatility on Wednesday and Thursday in the run-up to the tariff announcement, where President Donald Trump levied a minimum 10% fee on all imports to the country.

Major tokens bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), Solana’s SOL, xrp (XRP), and others, zoomed ahead of the speech and slumped as global markets fell, reversing all gains from the start of the week.

Markets have since shown an uptick in prices on Friday morning, with BTC steady above $83,100, ETH retaking $1,800 and XRP, SOL and ADA rising over 2%.

Ahead of Trump’s speech, investors transferred larger volumes of Bitcoin, ETH, and XRP into exchanges, suggesting a growing intent to sell, per a CryptoQuant note shared with CoinDesk on Thursday. Bitcoin transactions surged to as much as 2,500 BTC in a single block just hours after Trump began speaking.

In the U.S., Coinbase also saw a rise in bitcoin deposits, particularly from large holders.

Similarly, ETH inflows into exchanges spiked to an hourly peak of approximately 80,000 ETH. XRP transfers into Binance jumped to 130 million in one hour, up from under 10 million XRP per hour throughout most of the previous day.

These rising exchange inflows reflected investor willingness to exit positions amid growing economic uncertainty, CryptoQuant said, with demand for Bitcoin and ETH declining in the perpetual futures market as traders closed their long positions to take profits.

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But with headwinds behind and a new economic data set to be released later Friday could provide the impetus for a short-term relief in markets.

Attention is on the non-farm payroll report scheduled for a Friday release. The monthly U.S. economic indicator released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the change in employment, reflecting job creation, unemployment trends, and wage growth, offering insight into economic health.

Markets react strongly to NFP data: a higher-than-expected report can boost stocks and the dollar, signaling growth, while a weak report may spark sell-offs and lower yields, hinting at slowdown or recession risks. Traders use it to gauge Federal Reserve policy moves, amplifying its impact.

“Investors are bracing for signs of softness in the U.S. labour market,” Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast earlier Friday. “ A weaker-than-expected print would bolster the case for further Fed rate cuts this year, as policymakers attempt to cushion a decelerating economy.”

Data shows markets are pricing in four rate cuts in 2025 — 0.25 bps each in June, July, September and December. Rate cuts occur when a central bank, like the Federal Reserve, lowers interest rates to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper.

Bitcoin, and the broader market, tend to react positively to rate cuts, as lower rates reduce the appeal of traditional investments like bonds, driving investors toward alternatives like BTC. Additionally, a weaker dollar can enhance BTC’s value as a hedge against inflation or currency devaluation.

QCP Capital said it continues to observe elevated volatility in the short term, with more buyers of downside protection.

“That said, with positioning now light and risk assets largely oversold, the stage may be set for a near-term bounce,” the fund said.

For years, the crypto market has thrived on speculation, where excitement, hype and fleeting trends attract value instead of fundamentals. Investors have continually poured money into tokens fueled by viral moments, chasing rapid gains. Time and again, a select few of these investments soar to incredible heights, only to come crashing down. With over 33 million tokens in circulation, the competition to attract attention gets harder and harder and investor attention is ever more fleeting. But DePIN can change this. With compelling businesses attracting real customers and revenue built on well designed token economics, DePIN can set a new standard of fundamentals in crypto.

As our DePIN Token Economics Report outlines, Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) offer a number of compelling businesses with fundamental value. Unlike typical crypto projects driven by speculation, DePIN offers a different approach. It uses blockchain technology to support real-world infrastructure, creating tangible value and generating real revenue. Instead of relying on hype, it builds a financial system based on actual demand, making it a more sustainable and practical model.

Rather than resembling major crypto networks like Bitcoin or Ethereum, DePIN operates more like capital-light marketplaces such as Uber and Airbnb, but with key distinctions. While both models connect providers with customers without funding infrastructure, DePIN providers are compensated in tokens that can appreciate in value, akin to Uber drivers or Airbnb hosts receiving equity. Additionally, most DePINs sell to businesses which eliminates the need for massive marketing expenses required in building a consumer brand.

DePIN offers a compelling business model and, unlike memes that come and go, it is the beginning of crypto’s transformation into a mature, revenue-generating industry.

From Hype to Revenue-Driven Models

At its core, DePIN represents a paradigm shift. Traditionally, blockchain-based businesses have relied on hype to attract buyers. In the absence of traditional fundamentals, the industry cycled through endless metrics such as TPS, TVL, Telegram channel size, followers on X and many others. Many projects have attempted to build decentralized ecosystems. But, without real customers paying for services, they have largely functioned as economies fueled by speculation rather than external demand.

DePIN changes this by integrating blockchain technology with physical and digital infrastructure, creating compelling services that generate revenue. Whether it is decentralized cloud computing, wireless networks, mapping or storage solutions, DePIN projects offer services like traditional businesses and with customers who pay for usage. When combined with the correct token economics, it creates a sustainable financial model.

As DePIN generates growing revenue, it is likely to draw institutional investors who have long been skeptical of crypto’s reliance on hype and speculation. The projects that successfully correlate the token demand to actual business growth will not only survive the current market but also set the standard for the next generation of blockchain companies

The report also highlights one of the most compelling aspects of DePIN, the use of buy-and-burn, which removes the need to have an expanding pool of new buyers. Instead, these projects use a portion of their revenue to repurchase and burn tokens, permanently reducing supply and potentially driving long-term price appreciation similar to stock buybacks.

This approach is in stark contrast to most of crypto which relies on new buyers to sustain and grow their value.The buy-and-burn model ensures that as DePIN businesses grow and generate more revenue, their token ecosystems become more resilient to market fluctuations. Some DePIN tokens are already demonstrating this by decoupling from broader crypto market trends, proving that real-world adoption can lead to price stability and long-term investor confidence.

Aligning Incentives for Sustainable Growth

While DePIN offers significant potential, it also comes with challenges. One major concern is transparency, as most projects lack traditional financial reports, audits, or clear revenue statements. However, blockchain itself provides a solution — on-chain verification through buy-and-burn mechanisms allows for real-time financial tracking, giving investors a clearer picture of a project’s health.

Another challenge is customer adoption. Many businesses and consumers remain concerned due to crypto’s volatility. To address this, DePIN projects are introducing fiat payment options and stablecoin rewards, making it easier for everyday users to interact with these decentralized services without needing prior crypto or Web3 experience.

For DePIN to succeed, its incentive structures must be designed to keep all stakeholders — providers, users, and investors aligned. One way to achieve alignment is through staking mechanisms, especially in cloud-based networks where service providers lock up tokens as collateral to guarantee reliability. Projects like Filecoin and Fluence already use this approach, ensuring accountability while strengthening network security. Others, such as Render and Livepeer, take a different route by distributing a share of network revenue to token stakers, creating a system similar to dividends that rewards long-term commitment.

Governance will also be critical as DePIN projects decentralize. To prevent large token holders from short-term profiteering for quick gains, new governance models like quadratic voting and weighted staking are emerging. These frameworks help keep decision-making balanced, ensuring that projects remain sustainable and fair as they evolve.

DePIN isn’t just another blockchain investment vehicle, it is laying the foundation for real, decentralized infrastructure. While meme coins have shown that crypto can generate hype, they rarely create lasting value. In contrast, DePIN is developing businesses that can compete with centralized companies by focusing on real-world utility.

With token models backed by revenue, deflationary supply mechanics, and increasing interest from institutional investors, DePIN is redefining how blockchain networks should function. The projects that successfully address capital efficiency, align incentives, and navigate regulatory challenges will be the ones that lead this next phase of decentralized technology.

As DePIN matures, its token models will continue to evolve. Optimizing capital efficiency through transparent buy-and-burn rates will ensure liquidity while maintaining long-term value. Governance structures will adapt to prevent short-term actors from derailing network growth. By 2026, DePIN will be recognized as the benchmark for sustainable blockchain economies, proving that crypto can function as more than a speculative asset class.

The crypto industry stands at a crossroads. Investors, developers, and institutions must choose between supporting unsustainable token models or supporting projects that create real value. For the space to mature, it needs to move beyond pure speculation, and DePIN is at the forefront of that transformation.

Market Recovery Amid Institutional Confidence

The cryptocurrency market remains in turbulent territory as Toncoin (TON) demonstrates both significant volatility and remarkable resilience.

After forming a head-and-shoulders pattern with strong resistance at $4.15, TON has recovered from its recent lows. It is now trading at $4.13 with a 12.5% weekly gain.

This recovery comes amid news that leading venture capital firms, including Sequoia, Ribbit Capital, and Benchmark, collectively hold over $400 million in TON, signaling institutional confidence in the blockchain’s future.

TON Technical Analysis Highlights

Price action formed a head-and-shoulders pattern with resistance at $4.15 and support at $3.60.

The support level at $3.60 was breached during the April 3rd selloff.

Volume analysis shows distribution phases coinciding with price peaks, suggesting institutional profit-taking.

Fibonacci retracement indicates potential stabilization around the 0.618 level at $3.58.

Cup-and-handle formation appeared during recovery with initial resistance at $3.58.

Strong buying pressure was observed during the 15:32-15:34 and 15:58 periods.

Price reclaimed the Fibonacci 0.382 level at $3.59, suggesting potential continuation toward $3.65.

Disclaimer: This article was generated with AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy. This article may include information from external sources, which are listed below when applicable.

TheNewsCrypto, “Toncoin (TON) Eyes $4 as Bullish Momentum Builds,” accessed April 3, 2025

CryptoNews, “Is This the Next Solana? Toncoin’s $400 Million VC Investment Surge Signals Explosive Upside,” accessed April 3, 2025

CryptoDaily, “AI Predicts 12,500% Gains for Remittix (RTX), 232% for Chainlink (LINK) — But to Sell Toncoin (TON), Shiba Inu (SHIB) Fast,” accessed April 3, 2025

TheNewsCrypto, “Toncoin (TON) Price Prediction,” accessed April 3, 2025

Bitcoin Sistemi, “Top Crypto Platforms: Binance Coin, BlockDAG, Tron, Toncoin Poised for Major Growth in 2025,” accessed April 3, 2025

Hidden Road, a prime broker that focuses on both crypto and traditional assets, has received an inbound takeover approach, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

Takeover talks are ongoing with a crypto native company that wants to acquire Hidden Road, the people said, but there is no certainty that any deal will be done.

Hidden Road declined to comment.

The company has raised about $50 million in the last 12 months, from investors including crypto venture capital firm Dragonfly Capital, one of the people said.

One of the investors, a crypto native firm, has since made an approach to buy Hidden Road, the person added.

Dragonfly Capital didn’t respond to a request for comment by publication time.

Prime brokers are an essential part of the plumbing of financial markets. They provide trading, financing and custody services to large institutions.

Hidden Road raised $50 million in a Series A funding round in July 2022. The round was led by Castle Island Ventures, with participation from Citadel Securities, FTX Ventures, Uncorrelated Ventures, Greycroft, XBTO Humla Ventures, Wintermute, SLN Capital, Profluent Trading, Coinbase Ventures and Corner Capital.

The company was said to be weighing options including a potential sale or capital raise that could value the firm at more than $1 billion, according to a Bloomberg report last month.

Illinois will soon drop its staking lawsuit against Coinbase, joining three other U.S. states that have recently backed down from litigation against the exchange.

A spokesperson for Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias told CoinDesk on Thursday that the office “intends to drop the Coinbase lawsuit.” The spokesperson did not reply when asked when the case may be dropped.

Illinois was one of 10 U.S. states that brought charges against Coinbase in 2023 for allegedly violating state securities laws through its staking program. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also charged Coinbase with violating federal securities laws for its staking product, but dropped that suit in February. Since the SEC’s retreat, state securities regulators in Kentucky, Vermont and South Carolina have also abandoned their own cases against the exchange.

The remaining states with staking-related suits against Coinbase include Alabama, California, Maryland, New Jersey, Washington and Wisconsin. Spokespeople for California, Maryland, and Wisconsin declined to comment on pending litigation.

A representative for the New Jersey Bureau of Securities told CoinDesk the “Coinbase matter remains open,” and Bill Beatty, securities administrator for the Washington Department of Financial Institutions said the state’s “case with Coinbase remains ongoing at this time.”

The Alabama Securities Commission did not return CoinDesk’s request for comment.