Oddsmakers don’t think the Knicks have a shot against the Celtics in their Round 2 series.
THE NEWS
17 students taken to hospital after Chicago bus crash
How to watch Fatal Fury: Garcia vs. Romero live from Times Square
Garcia’s return to the ring will take place in one of the world’s most famous landmarks.
‘The Four Seasons’ Welcomes Back Alan Alda In A Special Guest Role
The legend is back!
Gingrich explains ways media turn out ‘dishonest’ polls to hurt Trump
Former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich said Thursday on “Hannity” that Republicans need to act “tougher and clearer” against Democrats’ opposition to President Donald Trump, calling out polls against the president.
Ahead of Trump’s first 100 days in office, polls from outlets like ABC News, CBS News and CNN showed a drop in confidence for how the president handles the job, significantly dipping from his high approval rating in February.
“I got a little preview about poll numbers that are coming out tomorrow and from both Robert Cahaly and Matt Towery, who I respect a lot, and, as I suspected, all of the polls that the media has been pushing on the American people about Donald Trump are false,” Hannity said.
“That’s what the early indications are and that all the pollsters that got the election in 24′ wrong and got every election about Donald Trump wrong. All of those people, the ones [that] say, ‘Oh he’s plummeting, but meanwhile they’re ignoring Chuck [Schumer] is at 17% and the Democrats are in the 20’s. I’m trying to understand that logic. Can you help me out?” Hannity asked.
In a CBS News poll released on Feb. 9, Trump reached his highest approval rating of both terms, with 53% of voters approving of his leadership at the time. In a poll conducted between April 23-25, however, the president’s overall approval rating sits at 45%.
An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, released Saturday, showed that 39% of the 2,464 respondents said they approve of Trump’s job performance, dropping six points from their February poll.
WATCH:
Gingrich accused the legacy media polls of “plain lying,” before saying that the attacks against Trump were “deliberate” and “willful.”
“They’re just plain lying, and I think we got to be tougher and clearer about how dishonest these people are. The fact is I talked to John McLaughlin, and I talked to Matt Towery about this. They [the media] have some polls there that are like 27% Republican when Trump got 50% of the vote, so if you add the 23 points they didn’t test then suddenly he’s in great shape,” Gingrich said.
“This is deliberate. It is willful,” Gingrich added. “Look, there are three great centers of resistance: the propaganda media that will lie all the time, the fake district judges, and the fake Congressional Budget Office. Those are the last three great centers of resistance, and they’re going to do anything they can to defeat Trump and the Republicans, including lying about virtually everything.”
In an interview with Fox News’ Laura Ingraham, pollster Matt Towery questioned the corporate media’s polls showing a significant drop in Trump’s approval rating, saying he doesn’t believe voters have lost their confidence in the president.
According to CBS’ April poll, 61% of respondents said Trump was fulfilling his campaign promises, with 64% agreeing that the president’s policies on the border have reduced illegal migrant crossings. Additionally, while 42% agree with his handling of the economy, 56% approved of Trump’s plan to deport illegal migrants from the U.S., the data said.
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125,000 New Yorkers Fled For Florida The Last 5 Years, Taking $14 Billion With Them
125,000 New Yorkers Fled For Florida The Last 5 Years, Taking $14 Billion With Them
More than 125,000 New Yorkers relocated to Florida over a recent five-year span, draining the Empire State of nearly $14 billion in income, according to a new report from the Citizens Budget Commission (CBC), a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog, reported on by the New York Post.
Roughly a third of those fleeing New York City—some 41,251 residents—resettled in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward counties between 2018 and 2022, resulting in a $10 billion loss in adjusted gross income (AGI) for the city. An additional $3.8 billion in income was lost to other Florida destinations.
“They are getting something more beneficial to them,” said CBC President Andrew Rein. “The key is with any place you need the benefits to outweigh the cost. The question right now for New York is what do we offer?”
The CBC attributes the exodus to a mix of affordability concerns, public safety, quality of life, and lingering pandemic effects. Only 30% of New Yorkers rated city life as “good or excellent” in 2023—down from 50% pre-pandemic.
The Post writes that high-income earners led the charge. Miami-Dade saw an influx of ex-New Yorkers with average incomes topping $266,000. Palm Beach newcomers earned around $189,000, while Fairfield County, Connecticut, drew residents with an average income of $141,000. Notably, New York’s top 1% of earners pay 40% of the state’s income taxes.
“One of the critical issues of our time is keeping our competitiveness for businesses and residents,” Rein said. “We need to focus on ensuring we don’t tax too much, that we are a safe place to live, and that people find quality of life to be high.”
Florida wasn’t the only winner. Nearby suburbs absorbed thousands of city dwellers:
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Long Island gained 138,000 NYC expats, costing the city $11.1 billion in AGI.
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Westchester County added nearly 60,000, for a $5 billion hit.
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Fairfield County took in 31,000, costing $4.9 billion.
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Bergen County, New Jersey, saw over 30,000 newcomers, with a $1.8 billion impact.
Altogether, relocations within the Northeast accounted for a $22.8 billion loss in AGI and a population decline of more than 230,000.
Despite a doubling of millionaires in New York from 2010 to 2022—from 36,000 to 70,000—the state’s share of U.S. millionaires dropped sharply, falling from 12.7% to 8.7%.
“Our competitiveness depends in part on quality of life and public safety,” said Rein. “Simply put, some people found the value proposition of other places to be higher than New York City.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 13:40
‘Too broke to break up’: More Americans than ever are staying in relationships — because they can’t afford to be single
What’s love got to do with it? A new survey reveals 1 in 4 Americans remain in relationships for financial reasons — with break-up costs topping $3,800 for Gen Z.
NJ teacher allegedly paid a teen for nudes — and offered $100 for sex
Jack Wilder, a 26-year-old history teacher at a charter school in Plainfield, was charged with multiple child-sex offenses.
Alleged Tesla arsonist freed from jail to continue ‘gender-affirming care’
A Massachusetts college student charged with setting Tesla vehicles and chargers on fire in Missouri has been freed from custody in part to proceed with sex change procedures she began on the month of the alleged attacks.
A federal judge ordered 19-year-old Owen McIntire into home detention at her parents’ house, which she can leave for reasons including medical and “mental health treatment,” after her attorney filed a motion arguing why she should be freed from jail. The document reveals that McIntire is another of several transgender-identifying people charged with anti-Tesla attacks since Tesla CEO Elon Musk joined the Trump administration.
“Medically, Owen faces serious and ongoing needs,” McIntire’s attorney wrote to a Massachusetts court on April 23. “He takes daily medications for depression and ADHD and has consistently demonstrated insight into his diagnoses and compliance with his treatment. He also receives gender-affirming medical care, which began in March of this year and is likely to be interrupted or terminated entirely if he remains in pretrial detention.”
The Awards You Never Get When Investing
The Awards You Never Get When Investing
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
In investing, success is often judged by numbers – returns on investment, percentage gains, and the ability to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500.
However, some investors frequently pursue a peculiar set of “awards” without realizing the pitfalls they embody. These unspoken goals, while tempting, rarely lead to sustainable investment success. If there were awards for some of these common but ill-advised behaviors, they would likely cause more harm than good. Here are some of the “investing awards” you’ll never receive, because chasing them isn’t worth the cost.
I Never Sold At A Loss Medal
Market volatility is an inherent aspect of investing. Striving to avoid all losses, or drawdowns, is unrealistic. Trying to sidestep volatility often leads to lower returns and missed growth opportunities. Overly conservative investments may not keep pace with inflation, steadily eroding purchasing power. Managing risk effectively instead of avoiding it is essential for long-term portfolio success.
Many investors pride themselves on never realizing a loss, believing that holding every position until it turns profitable is a badge of honor. However, this mindset often leads to holding onto poor performers indefinitely, tying up capital that could be better deployed elsewhere. This behavior is a classic example of behavioral mistakes investors make, specifically the “disposition effect,” where investors hold losing assets too long while selling winners too early. Focusing solely on avoiding losses often damages overall portfolio returns.
Like everything in life, there is a “season” and a “cycle.” When it comes to the markets, “seasons” are dictated by the “technical and economic constructs,” and the “cycles” are dictated by “valuations.” The seasons are shown in the chart below.
As such, successful investing requires disciplined pruning to maintain a healthy garden. Recognizing when an investment no longer aligns with your strategy and cutting losses early frees up capital for better opportunities. There is no award for stubbornly holding a stock that continues to drag down your portfolio.
I Took On As Much Risk As I Could Award
During bull markets, taking on excessive risk seems attractive. High-risk assets like speculative tech stocks or cryptocurrencies often deliver eye-catching gains. Some investors view risk-taking as bravery. But the reality is that high risk doesn’t guarantee higher returns; it is frequently quite the opposite. As Howard Marks previously discussed, risk and volatility aren’t the same thing. For years, many investors (and academics) have been taught that volatility, the ups and downs of stock prices, equals risk. However, volatility is just one part of the picture, but risk is the probability of losing money. Just because prices bounce around doesn’t mean you’re at risk of a loss.
However, “High risk equals high reward” is not always true. Just because an investment has a higher degree of risk does not guarantee it will deliver superior returns. Given that risk is the probability of losing money, taking on excess risk does increase the potential for poor returns over time. In other words, increasing risk increases the potential for significant losses. As such, investors must be careful about chasing returns without fully understanding the risks. The goal should be to weigh the possible outcomes and ensure the potential reward is worth the risk taken.
A good example was in 2022, when retail investors chasing meme stocks, SPACs, and IPOs suffered significantly heavier losses than the index. At that time, the ARK Innovation Fund, managed by Cathy Wood, was an example of peak speculation in the market. However, since then, those investments failed to recover. In other words, speculative risk-taking did not lead to outsized returns.
Sustainable investing requires aligning investments with financial goals and risk tolerance to avoid exposing one’s future to unnecessary volatility. Diversification, not reckless risk-taking, remains the best tool for improving risk-adjusted returns. While speculative investments lack the excitement and thrill, prudent investors build strategies focused on taking calculated, strategic risks that contribute to long-term wealth.
“You don’t get rewarded for taking risk; you get rewarded for buying cheap assets. And if the assets you bought got pushed up in price simply because they were risky, then you are not going to be rewarded for taking a risk; you are going to be punished for it.” – Jeremy Grantham
Successful investors avoid “risk” at all costs, even if it means underperforming in the short term. The reason is that while the media and Wall Street have you focused on chasing market returns in the short term, ultimately, the excess “risk” built into your portfolio will lead to inferior long-term returns. Wile E. Coyote never received an award for chasing the Roadrunner over the cliff.
I’m a Long-Term Investor (Only When I’m Losing Money) Certificate
A common rationalization is to claim to be a long-term investor only when losses mount. When an investment underperforms, investors often tell themselves they are simply “staying the course,” using time to justify inaction. Research by Barberis and Thaler (2003) on behavioral biases shows that loss aversion—the tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains—strongly influences this behavior.
True long-term investing demands more than patience; it requires a disciplined, objective framework. This means purchasing quality assets with strong fundamentals, establishing clear investment theses, and periodically reassessing those theses. Successful investors, like Warren Buffett, have emphasized that staying invested in a poorly performing asset without reevaluating it is not long-term investing—it is emotional decision-making disguised as strategy.
A good example is Intel (INTC) versus Texas Instruments. Over the last five years, Intel has lost 62% of its value as it lost its chip-making dominance to companies like AMD, Nvidia, Broadcom, and others. For investors holding Intel, many are hoping that something will occur and they can recover that loss. However, at any point over the last 5 years, they could have sold Intel and bought virtually any other chip maker and increased their wealth. While there are many examples, this exemplifies the point of opportunity cost. Holding a losing asset for long periods eats away at the wealth-building process and consumes our most precious commodity: time.
Building a resilient portfolio is not about loyalty to individual positions. It is about effective asset allocation, risk management, and ongoing evaluation. Markets evolve, industries change, and even once-promising companies can lose their competitive edge. Recognizing when an investment no longer fits your portfolio’s long-term goals—and having the discipline to move on—is a hallmark of professional investing, not a weakness.
I Never Used Stop-Losses Or Managed Risk Ribbon
Some investors view risk management strategies like stop-losses, portfolio rebalancing, and diversification as unnecessary restraints on potential gains. Instead, they trust intuition, believing they can “ride out” volatility. Behavioral research (Shefrin, 2000) shows that overconfidence is one of individual investors’ most common mistakes, often leading to catastrophic losses when market conditions change suddenly.
Managing risk effectively isn’t about fear or pessimism. It is about protecting your capital from irreparable damage so that you can continue participating in future market growth. Stop-losses are designed not to predict downturns but to limit exposure to individual positions that deteriorate beyond acceptable thresholds. Similarly, rebalancing prevents portfolios from drifting into unintended risk concentrations over time.
An example of risk management can be very simplistic. For example, using a 40-week moving average as a “risk off” indicator can help avoid more protracted market drawdowns.
We can apply a “risk management” strategy to that moving average to reduce risk during corrective periods. For this example, when the S&P 500 breaks below the 40-week moving average, stock exposure is reduced by 50%, and it reverses to 100% when the index crosses above that moving average. The results are shown below.
While there are times when investors were triggered to reduce and then increase exposures quickly, the 2000 and 2008 financial crises underscored the consequences of unmanaged portfolios. Many investors holding full exposures to equities without risk controls suffered permanent losses (Brunnermeier, 2009). Risk management is the bridge between surviving market turbulence and thriving in long-term wealth creation. No one ever received an award for riding markets substantially lower. Such is not a testament to resilience—it is an avoidable failure.
I Beat the S&P 500 Medallion
Outperforming the S&P 500 is often portrayed as the ultimate measure of investing success. However, data from the SPIVA U.S. Scorecard shows that approximately 85% of actively managed U.S. equity funds underperform their benchmarks over ten years. While not every manager underperforms yearly, and periods of outperformance exist, the persistent challenge highlights the difficulty of consistently beating the S&P 500.
Pursuing benchmark-beating returns can lead investors into dangerous territory. Studies in behavioral finance (Statman, 2000) show that investors chasing outperformance often engage in high-turnover strategies, excessive trading, and speculative bets. These behaviors introduce additional risks and higher transaction costs that erode potential gains. The result is that investors, while trying to “beat the index, ” consistently underperform over time. As noted in the 2024 Dalbar Research report:
As noted above, even the most simplistic of risk management strategies can improve returns over time while maintaining a focus on investment goals. Instead of fixating on beating the benchmark, focus on building a portfolio that aligns with your financial goals and personal risk tolerance. Ultimately, true investing success isn’t measured against a broad index. No one will ever give you an award for beating an index from one year to the next. However, they will measure your success by what matters most: whether you achieved your objectives, like securing a comfortable retirement or funding important goals.
Conclusion: Building a Smarter Path to Investing Success
To avoid the costly mistakes outlined above, investors must adopt a disciplined, process-driven approach to managing their portfolios. Sustainable investment success comes from understanding, not reacting to, market behavior. Here are the critical steps you should take:
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First, embrace losses as part of the investment journey. Prune weak investments when they no longer fit your strategy, reallocating capital to stronger opportunities rather than waiting for recoveries that may never come.
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Second, respect risk. Avoid equating bravery with excessive risk-taking. Build portfolios aligned with your personal financial goals and loss tolerance, focusing on diversification and asset valuation rather than speculative bets.
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Third, redefine long-term investing. Remaining loyal to a poor investment out of hope wastes time and wealth. Maintain objectivity by reassessing whether each holding still meets your original investment thesis.
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Fourth, implement active risk management. Use stop-loss strategies, periodic rebalancing, and technical indicators like the 40-week moving average to protect against significant drawdowns. Managing risk is about ensuring survival, not limiting success.
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Finally, stop chasing the S&P 500. Focus instead on achieving your financial objectives with consistent, risk-adjusted returns. Outperformance is meaningless if you fail to meet real-world needs, like securing retirement income or building generational wealth.
Successful investing is not about winning arbitrary “awards.” It is about managing risk, preserving capital, and steadily compounding returns toward your goals. Ignore the noise, stay disciplined, and remember: no one hands out awards for reckless investing—only consequences.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 13:20