With Canada’s Atlantic polls now having closed in what will be a deeply consequential election, odds for conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre have begun spiking after conservative turnout was reportedly “larger than expected,” according to betting market Kalshi.

Earlier, Polymarket odds were as high as 48% for Poilievre – dropping to a 30% chance as of this writing – but nevertheless in sharp contrast to the 20% odds he’s been hovering around all week.

You can track the odds in realtime below:

Poilievre may be worth a punt at 20% pic.twitter.com/9DD6mPQWvF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 25, 2025

Stay tuned for updates…

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

After only a hundred days, the Trump counterrevolution has made quite miraculous progress on the border, illegal immigration, cost-cutting, curbing the DEI/woke revolution, and a historic Ukrainian War settlement.

The pushback to this multifront effort from the left has been formidable, if not hysterical. The greatest fury mostly centers around Trump’s efforts to force U.S. trading partners to adopt either reciprocal or no tariffs while obeying international trading norms—an effort aimed at vastly reducing the U.S. trade deficit.

If Trump could cut a proverbial deal in the next 100 days that, say, cut the annual $1.2 trillion trade deficit in half, coupled with multitrillion-dollar foreign investments, then stocks and bonds would settle down.

Wall Street would go back to its traditional platitudes that the trade deficit then would be no higher than the 3-percent-of-GDP red line.

Stocks would then soar in anticipation of the other news of a continuation of tax cuts, more budgetary reductions, robust energy development, and further deregulation.

The U.S. has run a half-century of trade deficits. And now the red ink has climbed to nearly $1.2 trillion, the largest in history. 

Yet for all practical purposes, only a few entities account for most of an astronomical sum. And they all have corollary concerns to the U.S. that make their surpluses part of larger problems.

The administration can accurately talk about “70 nations wanting to deal.” But, in truth, if Trump were to settle with just China, Mexico, Canada, the EU, and the ten-nation Southeast Asian trading bloc (ASEAN), then the so-called trade wars would be over.

Start with our North American partners Mexico ($171.9 trillion surplus) and Canada ($63 trillion surplus) that alone account for over 20 percent of the U.S. trade deficit.

Canada’s surplus is almost entirely attributable to its vast oil and gas sales to the U.S. Almost all its daily oil exports go to the U.S., some four million barrels—as well as half its natural gas shipments.

Canada claims that it sells oil and power at a discount to the northern U.S. It also boasts that its asymmetrical sky-high tariffs on American dairy products and poultry are rarely used if the American exports just stay below certain thresholds. But aren’t thresholds themselves a form of tariff?

Canadian oil deposits are landlocked and far from ports. Canadian crude is heavy, sulfurous, and difficult to refine for many nations’ refineries. In contrast, the huge U.S. market right across the border and the ability of American refineries to handle Canadian crude explain the “discount” better than simple Canadian magnanimity.

Moreover, Canada is one of the stingiest of NATO partners. It is underinvesting in military readiness at only 1.37 percent of its GDP on defense, stonewalling its 2 percent commitment for over a decade.

Should the Trump administration prompt Canada to invest 2 percent in defense—about $41 billion extra—and buy enough U.S. products to cut its surpluses, say, by $10-20 billion of its current $63 billion, a deal could and should be easily reached.

Mexico’s surplus is huge and growing at $171 billion. It is largely created by assembling cars, electronic goods, and appliances sent to it from other countries to enter the U.S. market with reduced taxes.

Trump could ask Mexico to cut that $171 billion in half, particularly given that Mexican cartels funnel an estimated $10 billion to $20 billion annually into the U.S. through drug smuggling. Their drug factories are designed for U.S. export and contribute to the deaths of 60,000 to 100,000 Americans through opioid overdoses.

Add in the $63 billion in untaxed remittances that Mexico’s expatriates send home. Most senders are illegally residing in the U.S. Additionally, many are subsidized by local, state, and federal American entitlements to free up their cash to be sent home.

In other words, like Canada, there are other issues with Mexico transcending trade alone. To even the playing field, Trump could either focus on the cartels, tax remittances, or urge Mexico to buy more U.S. goods in a tripartite effort to reduce the outflow by half.

China’s surplus with the U.S. is the largest at $300 billion. And it is the most difficult to address, given that Chinese global tentacles have compromised dozens of nations. Still, we retain far greater leverage on Beijing than Beijing has on us. But to use such levers—stopping visas to 300,000 students, delisting Chinese out-of-compliance companies from our stock exchanges, curbing all technological transfers that have military applications and key spare parts for their imported goods—we would then enter a veritable Cold War.

Instead, China should use its over $1 trillion trade surplus to raise the standard of living for its own 1.4 billion consumers. But redirecting its export economy would cut back on its geostatic initiatives of massively rearming, the Belt and Road imperialist adventure, and spreading billions of dollars around in the Western world to influence universities and buying up strategic property.

Unless Trump wishes an all-out trade war, he, for now, should aim at reducing the Chinese surplus by $300-500 billion and seek some trade reforms, given Chinese violations of every international commercial canon.

The EU runs up a $235 billion surplus with America—mostly from the surpluses incurred by Germany, Ireland, Switzerland, France, and Italy, which export massive amounts of pharmaceuticals, chemicals, cars, and machinery.

The EU’s socialist and highly regulated member economies grant direct subsidies to industry and agriculture and rely on contorted uses of the VAT tax and asymmetrical tariffs to gain an advantage over U.S. goods. As a rule, the EU ministers despise Trump, are closely allied with the kindred American left, and would likely do nothing to help Trump unless pressured.

In somewhat ironic fashion, the EU suffers a $315 trade deficit with China but then turns around to run up a $235 surplus with the U.S. That circular strategy helps to ensure the EU can still rely on an aggregate $171 billion surplus with the world, again largely due to the U.S.

In the EU’s case, its $235 billion surplus with the U.S. is an inseparable issue from its assumption that the United States’s strategic arsenal and oversized NATO presence have always ensured European continental security.

The U.S. spends the most of the NATO membership on defense and is largely responsible for prodding 24 of the 32 NATO members finally to meet their 2-percent obligations, and timely so given the subsequent Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Unlike the ASEAN countries that are trying to reach Western standards of prosperity by piling up trade surpluses, the EU is struggling to maintain its own wobbling prosperity. Its disastrous energy policies, wide-open borders, massive Islamic immigration, and political paranoia about the rise of populist conservative parties have impoverished Europe materially and culturally.

What can we conclude from this global labyrinth of trade?

Most nations see the U.S. market and its reserve currency as critical to their export industries. They believe America is wedded to libertarian economics and would never impose tariffs similar to their own.

They understand, as do Americans, that a $37 trillion national debt, a $1.2 trillion trade deficit, and a $2 trillion budget deficit are force multipliers of each other and not sustainable. But until those numbers hit critical mass, most nations will remain as eager to keep running up surpluses as Americans have been to borrow and spend.

So, what is the logic behind Trump’s loud art-of-the-deal trade gambits?

He wants our “friends” and “allies” to seek reciprocity defined either as symmetrical or no tariffs, some reductions in their trade surpluses, and greater investment in the U.S.—in preference, of course, to a trade war.

For belligerents like China, Trump seeks to coerce it to follow global rules of commerce that it flaunts with impunity to run a global mercantile system based on technology theft, asymmetrical tariffs, espionage, and its loan-sharking Belt and Road initiatives designed to pry away nations from the Western orbit.

Will the Trump trade and tariff strategy work?

It can if it follows some simple dos and don’ts.

1.  Trump knows that other nations privately concede they are taking advantage of the U.S. and are willing to renegotiate – if Trump shows them some deference, cools somewhat the “rip-off” language, and settles for gradualism. He has the moral high ground. 

To win his current tariff standoffs, he needs not achieve instant trade parity, but perhaps instead only prod nations to cut their particular deficits with the U.S. in half, with a schedule of more parity and further surplus reductions to come.

2.  The U.S. economy is not in recession. Job growth, stable prices, increased energy production and low prices, and corporate profits were all encouraging in March and April. News of an impending budget bill that extends tax cuts and deregulates, along with trillions of dollars in new foreign investments and budget discipline, will all fuel stock markets.

And what a funny stock market cohort—the 10 percent who own 93 percent of the nation’s stock market capitalization! From May through August of last year, investors boasted that they had hit 40,000 in the Dow Jones.

Now, less than a year later, their portfolios are back at 40,000. And yet still they moan that they lost trillions of dollars in March. These strange people apparently believe that the highest stock market peak is encased in amber as their God-given permanent profit. (They should try farming where commodity prices remain volatile and can wipe out a grower in a season if prices collapse and often do—and sometimes do not return to previous highs for years on end.)

3.  The world may fear China, but it hates it even more, given its commercial bullying, trade mercantilism, autocracy, and military buildup. 

For all their double-dealing, the Europeans and our Asian partners will come to appreciate that someone is finally risking it all to bridle China into following global rules while deterring its expanding military.

4.  Trump might wish to pivot to a “tragic” style of discourse. He can remind the world he inherited a $3-billion-a-day interest tab on a growing $37-trillion national debt, fueled by $2-trillion budget deficits, which are all force multipliers of the effects of an annual $1-trillion trade deficit.

In other words, he did not want to lay off employees at home, slash programs, or badger and provoke our friends abroad. But at least in the past quarter-century, no president has made any progress on any deficit and debt front. So, Trump can admit he had no choice given the magnitude and variety of the red ink and America’s impending rendezvous with financial Armageddon.

5.  There may be one important taboo.

Trump might curb talk of “revenue,” as if we can return to the pre-income tax age, prior to 1913, when federal revenue came largely from tariffs.

Today’s tariffs prior to 2025 account for only $77 billion of the total annual revenue of $5.27 trillion. Even the most optimistic estimates suggest $1-3 trillion in new Trump tariff income over the next decade, with the new proposed trade policies. That might mean some $100-300 billion more per year—a fraction of our current aggregate annual income.

But far more importantly, the American people will stick with Trump if they believe we are victimized by predatory nations whose asymmetrical tariffs deliberately run up surpluses with the U.S.

They want to see the Trump trade war as an effort to obtain either similar or no tariffs with trade partners and reduce trade deficits. But if the U.S. preempts and raises higher tariffs on those with whom we now run surpluses (like the U.K. and Australia) or brags that we can become rich from tariffs (at other nations’ expense), then the administration will lose the moral high ground, and the people will not support his cause.

In sum, Trump will win this tariff spat if he sticks to “parity” and “fairness” and downplays talking about gargantuan “profits.”

A $60 million fighter jet has been “lost” at sea at a moment American naval assets under US Central Command have been conducting bombing campaigns against Yemen’s Houthis since March 15.

But as far as what’s being reported from the Pentagon, the jet wasn’t shot out of the sky during operations – it apparently rolled off an aircraft carrier. 

The US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet “fell overboard from the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier while it was being towed on board, the Navy said in a statement on Monday,” CNN reports.

Initial reports strongly suggest the mishap was caused due to the Truman carrier having to take sudden evasive action to avoid inbound Houthi fire:

A US official said that initial reports from the scene indicated that the Truman made a hard turn to evade Houthi fire, which contributed to the fighter jet falling overboard. The Houthi rebel group claimed on Monday to have launched a drone and missile attack on the aircraft carrier, which is in the Red Sea as part of the US military’s major anti-Houthi operation.

A naval crew member had been able to jump off the jet at the last minute when the accident occurred as it was being towed out of the hanger bay. One sailor reportedly sustained minor injury.

The Houthis said Monday they launched a fresh attack targeting the Truman carrier, following many other such claimed attacks. This appears to be the first time the US Navy has linked damage aboard a warship with an inbound Houthi assault (albeit somewhat indirectly). A prior incident involving ‘friendly fire’ against a US jet also resulted in the aircraft’s loss (see below).

“The F/A-18E was actively under tow in the hangar bay when the move crew lost control of the aircraft. The aircraft and tow tractor were lost overboard,” a US military statement said. “Sailors towing the aircraft took immediate action to move clear of the aircraft before it fell overboard. An investigation is underway.”

Suggests Truman carrier group is under Houthi fire more frequently (and with a greater impact) than is being publicly acknowledged. https://t.co/Vs2MZYRzJt

— Gregory Brew (@gbrew24) April 28, 2025

The aircraft has sunk in the Red Sea, at a loss of at least $60 million. The US Navy sought to emphasize Monday that the strike group and its air wing “remain fully mission capable.”

This is the second known F-18 jet lost at sea related to the US patrolling regional waters in the wake of the Gaza War:

The Truman has repeatedly been targeted in attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. It made headlines in February when it collided with a merchant ship near Egypt; no injuries were reported. Another F/A-18 from the Truman was also “mistakenly fired” upon and shot down by the USS Gettysburg in the Red Sea in December ; both pilots ejected safely.

All of this brings up the possibility that US warships have suffered direct hits in the past, but the Pentagon has kept it quiet…

Amid news that an F/A-18E fighter jet made a hard turn to evade Houthi fire and fell overboard, worth noting: the Houthis have claimed direct hits on the USS Truman aircraft carrier, and Hezbollah’s Al-Manar aired footage it claims shows parts of the ship damaged and draped over. https://t.co/sbTUQLpoAp pic.twitter.com/OIOKpbYseS

— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) April 28, 2025

Given these ‘close-calls’ and mishaps due to the chaos of the fight with the Houthis – which it should be noted is military action still not approved by Congress – it is perhaps only a matter of time until a bigger, more direct clash and incident. Thankfully, no US aviators or sailors have been killed or seriously wounded so far.

In our preview of today’s Treasury borrowing estimate release, we said that we expect the Treasury to announce $507bn in Q2 borrowing, a “figure much higher than Treasury’s estimate of $123bn in February” and entirely due to a lower starting cash balance, which as regular readers know, has collapsed due to the debt ceiling impasse that has forced the Treasury to draw down on its TGA (cash) balance as well as use various extraordinary measures.

We were off by a tiny $7 billion, $507BN vs $514BN as per the table below:

At 3pm ET, ahead of Wednesday’s Refunding statement, the Treasury published its debt borrowing estimates for calendar Q2 and Q3 and it was just as expected:

• During the April – June 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $514 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $850 billion. The borrowing estimate is $391 billion higher than announced in February 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows, partially offset by lower QT (i.e. debt redemptions) to the tune of $60 billion. 

The above was completely expected, which means it is completely distorted due to the ongoing debt ceiling standoff. This is what we said earlier:

Treasury issuance in Q2 will most likely end up short of the estimate if the debt ceiling remains unresolved this quarter. Similarly, Q3 estimate will assume a normal beginning-of-quarter cash balance, but actual issuance could end up materially higher once the debt ceiling constraint is lifted during the quarter and Treasury begins to rebuild its cash balance (and if it isn’t, and the US begins to default, there will be much bigger problems at hand than termed-out debt issuance).

Translation: the Treasury drew down its cash by $444BN from $850BN to $406BN, also as we said in our preview.

What we didn’t say, because we didn’t know it (and neither did anyone else), is what the Treasury reported as an endnote to its borrowing needs paragraph, namely that “the current quarter borrowing estimate is $53 billion lower than announced in February” which indicates that DOGE is indeed working and the US funding needs are actually declining. 

To be sure, this also should not be a huge surprise, because as we also reported just before the Treasury press release, “fiscal flows year-to-date are coming in better than expected (thank you DOGE). Gross receipts are tracking slightly above prior-year levels (adjusted for CBO forecasts for 2025), while outlays are closer to the bottom of the historical range, although sadly nowhere near enough to make a notable impression over the long-term.”

And while fiscal flows could deteriorate in the coming quarters – especially if there is a sharp recession – that risk is largely viewed as relatively low, for now. Meanwhile, DB economists estimate the deficit impact from TCJA extension and other Trump proposals could be largely offset by higher tariff revenues this year, before the deficit widens out more substantially relative to the CBO baseline next year and onward.

Looking ahead to calendar Q3, or the July – September 2025 quarter, the Treasury now expects to borrow $554 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion. It remains unclear if the Treasury will be able to restore cash to its “runrate” balance of $850BN, as that will depend entirely on when the debt ceiling deal will be concluded. As a reminder, earlier we highlighted the thoughts of DB’s Steven Zeng who moved
his x-date estimate from late July to mid-August, indicating that there is a modest buffer, but not enough to push the debt ceiling date into Q4 without major damage.

Finally, looking at the historical data, during calendar Q1 which ended March 31, 2025 quarter, the treasury borrowed $369 billion in privately-held  net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $406 billion. In February 2025, Treasury estimated borrowing of $815 billion and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion. The $446 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing resulted primarily from the lower end-of-quarter cash balance. However, excluding the lower than assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $2 billion lower than announced in February.

In other words, DOGE is working: in Q1, US debt funding needs were $2BN less than the Treasury forecast in February, and in Q2 the Treasury is expected to need $53 billion less than it forecast 3 months ago.

This unexpected drop in pro forma debt issuance (because one way or another, the debt ceiling constraint will go away), may be the reason why yields have been sliding all day, and at 4.21% are at session lows.

Source: US Treasury

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

China has not imported any liquefied natural gas from the United States since early February, data from Kpler cited by Nikkei has shown. 

The last LNG cargo that left the Gulf bound for China set off on February 6, the data showed.

The Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods, including energy products, and the broader trade war between the world’s two biggest economies could have long-term consequences on the ability of new U.S. LNG export projects to attract anchor offtake commitments, analysts have warned.

The United States was never a major supplier of LNG to Chinese buyers, but after Beijing slapped retaliatory tariffs on U.S. energy imports, the flow ended completely.

Following the tariff exchange, Chinese LNG buyers with long-term supply contracts with U.S. producers started reselling the cargos to Europe, Bloomberg reported in March, citing sources from the trading world. What’s more, Chinese traders have grown cold towards new long-term commitments for future supply from the United States, instead seeking long-term deals with gas producers in the Middle East and the Asia Pacific.

The latest news in that space was for a 15-year supply deal for liquefied natural gas from Emirati Adnoc, at a rate of 1 million metric tons annually. 

This made the contract the largest LNG supply deal for a Chinese company, ENN Natural Gas. ENN said the agreement will boost energy supply security and diversify its sourcing.

The outlook for Chinese LNG imports in general appears to be bearish, with BloombergNEF forecasting last month that high levels of gas inventories will push demand lower for the year, leading to the first annual decline in LNG imports since 2022.

The tariff push is now affecting the U.S. LNG industry in another way as well. 

President Trump has slapped tariffs on Chinese-built ships calling at U.S. ports, aiming to stir U.S. energy companies towards using U.S.-built vessels, of which there are none yet.

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker — a far-left billionaire born into wealth as an heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune — has called for “mass protest and mobilization for disruption” against the Republican Party.

“Never before in my life have I called for mass protests, for mobilization, for disruption. But I am now,” Pritzker told the audience at the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s annual McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner on Sunday evening. 

Pritzker continued: “These Republicans cannot know a moment of peace. They must understand that we will fight their cruelty with every megaphone and microphone that we have. We must castigate them on the soap box and then punish them at the ballot box.”

Pritzker calls for mass protests and disruption – “Republicans cannot know a moment of peace,” he says, swaying their portraits will one day be put in museums “reserved for tyrants and traitors” pic.twitter.com/BBBuL1Uz9O

— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) April 28, 2025

Pritzker’s fiery speech last night at the 100 Club Dinner in New Hampshire strongly suggests he is considering a presidential run and testing the waters: 

• New Hampshire is a critical early primary state, and the McIntyre-Shaheen Dinner is one of the biggest Democratic Party events in the state.

• Presidential hopefuls typically use speeches there to build national visibility, court party insiders, and gauge grassroots support. 

The billionaire Democratic governor is testing the waters after socialists Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders toured the country in private jets to campaign against “oligarchy” — a nationwide touring effort largely seen as a dud.

Pritzker, who is an heir to the Hyatt Hotels fortune, has criticized the Trump administration’s deportation efforts of illegal alien criminals, as well as Elon Musk’s DOGE efforts to eliminate fraud and waste from the bloated federal government. 

Publicly available data shows the wealthy Pritzker family and their connection with Hyatt.

Pritzker might also be jumping into action after President Trump issued a presidential memorandum last week to target Democratic online donation platform, ActBlue, specifically cracking down on foreign contributions in American elections.

The rudderless Democratic Party can’t win with common sense, so they are doubling and tripling down on more protests funded by NGOs. As the saying goes, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.

Authored by Mark LaBrosse via FreightWaves.com,

We’ve all heard how emerging AI technologies will optimize the freight industry in ways we can only dream about. But the scary truth is that AI is already fueling our nightmares—by supercharging freight theft.

Why aren’t more people talking about the dark side of AI? For one, most of the worries are centered on job loss and plagiarism. But perhaps it’s largely because it’s so good that it’s hard to detect. Regardless, it’s clear some strategies are already in play.

What’s critical to know: Even those highly attuned to scams can fall victim as generative AI more closely mimics real business experiences and enables crime syndicates to operate at scale.

This is an arms race. It will take good-guy tech fighting bad-guy tech and a coordinated human response to protect cargo from these modern cyber pirates.

Discerning real from fake is getting increasingly difficult

Crime syndicates can already evade detection and prosecution by operating outside the United States and creating new fraudulent documentation whenever they’re discovered. 

With AI in play, these bad actors are orders of magnitude more effective.

“Generative AI makes fraud an infinitely scalable and near-automatic process,” warns BAYNCORE senior consultant Dr. Richard Paul, who earned his PhD in computer simulation and artificial intelligence.

“Anyone can now set up an AI bot to scan the internet for key fragments of information,” Paul explains. “When assembled, these simple AI tools can automatically create documents, emails, and text messages that appear legitimate.”

Monitoring a freight industry awash in phishing scams, Brittany Graft, COO of fraud prevention platform Highway, shares Paul’s concern.

“If we take phishing schemes, for example, we historically have been able to detect and avoid them because the English is broken, the grammar is poor, or a logo is misplaced. AI is going to help the bad guys create an experience that so closely replicates what brokers and carriers are used to,” says Graft, “that the discerning eye will have a harder time picking up that it’s a scam.”

“Already, we’re seeing phishing attempts work because the imitations are so good,” Graft continues. “If we click some of these links, they look exactly like the legitimate site.”

And once brokers and carriers enter their credentials into illegitimate login pages and websites, their accounts—even email inboxes—are immediately compromised. From there, it’s quick work for AI agents and those using the tools to insert themselves at every level, logging into load boards, capturing freight, and creating havoc.

Complicating matters further, bad actors can use generative AI to beat the numbers game by creating tens or even hundreds of fraudulent carriers or brokers—complete with cloned sites, identical documents, and perfectly written emails. 

One, two, even fifty fraudulent carriers could be caught, and it would barely be a dent in the coming cyber threat onslaught.

“At the same time, freight brokers are being held to ever-higher standards of accountability in the court of law,” according to FreightWaves Group President, Kaylee Nix. “The situation has reached a crisis, and it’s time for the industry to come together to address this critical problem and share best practices on how to mitigate it.”

In response, the logistics industry’s largest media platform is hosting a FreightWaves Fraud Symposium on May 14 to help brokers better protect their businesses and customers.

FBI raising the alarm on deepfakes

In December 2024, the FBI issued an alert, drawing attention to how criminals are using generative AI to scam the general public. These same tactics are also being deployed against freight industry businesses and their customers.

In addition to creating fraudulent credentials, the FBI specifically cites how vocal cloning, audio bots, and generative video can falsely confirm the identity of the person you’re speaking to.

Now classic verification methods, like a simple phone call to confirm identity, can be thwarted.

“They can convince you they are from someone you know,” Paul says. “Complete with intimate details about you, in a familiar tone, even convincingly cloning a voice you know well.”

Paul adds, “The content and messaging these custom AIs generate is near-perfect, even better than legitimate actors frequently create—and thus is very hard to detect.”

Graft shares these concerns.

“We go really deep on verifying the identities of motor truck carriers and the individuals who represent them,” she says. “We collect their driver’s license, ask them to take a live photo, and verify that their digital identity matches their physical identity.”

“We’re aware of the potential for generative AI to replicate that live photo step and potentially try to brute force the system by creating multiple attempts to see which one will work,” Graft continues. “We’re bringing machine learning into that process to detect the visual signals on AI-generated photos and monitor the number of attempts.”

It’s clear—we’ll need tech solutions like this to get ahead of AI-enabled fraud.

Building trust face-to-face: The freight industry’s human response

If you’re worried about strategic cargo theft, you’re not alone. A Freight Caviar poll found that double brokering was the leading fraud concern among brokers, topping outright theft and hijacking. 

In this threat landscape, it’s highly likely that every broker and carrier in the country has already been targeted—or will be in short order. It’s the worst-kept secret in the industry. Unfortunately, victimized brokers and carriers have experienced a shocking lack of action when they’ve turned to the FMCSA. This rapidly rising fraud simply hasn’t been an agency priority.

While the federal government has yet to take meaningful action, freight brokers and carriers aren’t standing idle. They are taking their own actions, adopting new tools, and opening up dialogue.

Partly in response to this chaos, they’ve banded together and launched the Broker-Carrier Summit to deliver critical education, build relationships, and open up the lines of communication necessary to strengthen the industry and help fend off scammers.

Fighting fire with fire: The freight industry’s tech response

While emerging technologies have enabled a whole new level of criminality, brokers and carriers also leverage cutting-edge tech to protect against AI-powered scammers. In fact, tech-enabled fraud prevention tools have done more to combat this increasingly sophisticated threat than anything else out there.

Graft agrees.

“We’ll have to increasingly rely on technology to help us ascertain identities because AI is going to get better at impersonating reality,” she says.

What tools do we have at our disposal?

Digital identity wallets, like the well-established ID.me, are now taking direct aim at deepfakes, leveraging biometrics for facial verification and liveness detection. (Privacy concerns aside.)

Carrier vetting platforms, including FreightValidate and Carrier411, surface an operator’s entire history—or, in the case of many bad actors, the lack of a legitimate history.

Some carrier identity SaaS systems and plugins, like Highway, feature machine learning (ML) to monitor inbound phone calls and email inboxes, looking for various fraud signals, like spoofed phone numbers and email addresses.

As this digital war rages on, some fraud detection tools are getting into a more proactive position, now executing real-time behavioral and intent monitoring—detecting increasingly subtle patterns.

It’s a lot to take in, I realize. The growing scale of strategic freight theft—up 1,500% since 2021, according to the American Trucking Association—is enough to leave you breathless.

We’ll need every human and tech-enabled arrow in our quiver to protect our supply chain.

In an unexpected development on Monday Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine on the occasion of Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, coming next week.

This year’s observance will mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The Kremlin published a statement calling for the ceasefire to being at midnight on May 8, lasting until midnight on May 11. The Kremlin intends for all Russian military operations to be suspended.

This full three-day ceasefire would mark the longest such pause in fighting of the war, following on the heels of this month’s 30-hour Easter truce, which largely held but saw accusations of repeat violations hurled between both sides in some locales.

The ceasefire is “out of humanitarian considerations,” the statement indicated. “Russia believes that the Ukrainian side should follow this example,” the Kremlin added.

“In the event of ceasefire violations by Ukraine, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will respond appropriately and effectively.”

Moscow further said it “reaffirms its readiness for peace negotiations without preconditions, aimed at addressing the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis and engaging constructively with international partners.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, was the first to respond on behalf of Kiev, and asked why there can’t be an immediate ceasefire, if Moscow is willing to declare one for May 8.

“Why wait until May 8th? If the fire can be ceased now and since any date for 30 days — so it is real, not just for a parade,” Sybiha wrote on X. “Ukraine is ready to support a lasting, durable and full ceasefire. And this is what we are constantly proposing, for at least 30 days.”

One Russian source has been quoted as pointing out this is largely about signaling the Trump administration:

“We are sending a signal to the outside world: we are peace-loving, and they [in Ukraine] are terrorists — referring, for example, to the recent killing of General Moskalik,” said the official, who was granted anonymity to talk candidly about the situation.

“Another intended recipient of this signal is the U.S. president himself: ‘Look, Mr. Trump, we are trying,’” the official added.

Trump has been increasing the pressure not only on Zelensky but on Russia too, warning both sides that US patience will run out, and urging the forging of a ceasefire within days.

But in reality neither side has budged, given also just on Monday FM Lavrov set forth maximalist demands to end the war: full recognition of Russian control over the four territories, ‘deNazification’, and a pledge for Ukraine to never joint NATO, along with protection of the Russian language in Ukraine.

New on MoA:
Russia Rejects Trump’s Freeze Of The War In Ukrainehttps://t.co/Adz8e0loFS pic.twitter.com/Gxk7JTtvZ5

— Moon of Alabama (@MoonofA) April 28, 2025

However, Trump has lately suggested he thinks Zelensky is ready to give up Crimea, but there’s been no official confirmation of this as of yet. The Ukrainian leader would face immense pushback from many of his own military commanders if he formally relinquishes territory.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

President Trump has called for the person who was operating the autopen that signed many documents, and pardons, while Joe Biden was in office to be jailed.

In a Truth Social post Sunday, Trump wrote “Hopefully ACTBLUE, the Democrats ILLEGAL SCAM used to raise money, including from not allowed “foreign contributions,” is being looked at by authorities. The Dems only know how to win by CHEATING, something which they do better than any group or party in history.”

He added that “now, with their terrible policies and candidates, and with people like Crooked Adam Schiff, who demanded a full Pardon from Sleepy Joe, leading the way, it is almost impossible to reach their money goals. The USA is wise to these scoundrels and crooks.”

Executive Orders were signed that Biden himself had no recollection of signing.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has talked about this at length.
It doesn’t seem like Biden was actually in control of the Executive Branch … which is concerning, to say the least.

— The Conservative Alternative (@OldeWorldOrder) April 27, 2025

“Also, why did the Auto Pen give Schiff a Pardon?” Trump continued, adding “Biden knew nothing about it. Who operated the Auto Pen? That is the biggest question being asked in D.C. They almost destroyed our Country. They should all be in jail!!!”

The autopen scandal is a big deal. You can’t have someone basically forging the President’s signature on important documents.

— Red Moon (@LSDSurvivor) April 27, 2025

They weren’t elected the President of the United States, and these people committed crimes that abused the elderly dementia victim Joe Biden’s name plate.

— AC Cibock (@CibockAc67066) April 27, 2025

Last month, Trump declared that all of the pardons issued by ‘Joe Biden’ in the final days of his fake Presidency are void because he didn’t sign any of them.

He added that anyone who receive a pardon should not rest assured that they are immune from investigation, adding “In other words, Joe Biden did not sign them but, more importantly, he did not know anything about them! The necessary Pardoning Documents were not explained to, or approved by, Biden.”

“He knew nothing about them, and the people that did may have committed a crime,” Trump further urged.

The autopen issue was revealed in findings from The Oversight Project.

The organisation released further analysis finding that Biden’s pardons for family members, Anthony Fauci, General Milley, J6 Committee members, and Gerald Lundergan were all autopenned.

The Oversight Project also found that two different autopens were used, pointing out that Neera Tanden was the White House Staff Secretary when Biden autopenned pardons from a golf course in the US Virgin Islands.

You were White House Staff Secretary when Biden autopenned pardons from the golf course in USVI.

This you? https://t.co/26z9C6cE7m pic.twitter.com/7btD2RTX0N

— Oversight Project (@ItsYourGov) March 17, 2025

*  *  *

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Actor Jon Voight and his manager, Steven Paul, are preparing to present President Donald Trump with proposals to boost U.S. film and TV production as soon as this week, according to Bloomberg.

Beyond traditional state tax credits, their plan could include incentives for infrastructure, job training, and tax code changes.

“It’s important that we compete with what’s going on around the world so there needs to be some sort of federal tax incentives,” Paul said. He added that their goal is to curb the current state-by-state competition for productions and bring business back from overseas.

Bloomberg writes that film and TV production has declined in California and across the U.S. as studios cut back and other countries like the UK, Australia, Hungary, and Spain lure projects with tax incentives.

“It’s been very, very difficult here,” Paul said. “We’re feeling the cries of people in town.”

A California bill aiming to more than double state film incentives to $750 million annually is moving through the legislature. Voight, alongside actors Mel Gibson and Sylvester Stallone, was named by President Trump in January as a special ambassador to Hollywood. Scott Karol, president of SP Media Group, said Voight’s team has consulted studio executives, union leaders, and state officials for input.

One proposal could involve extending and expanding Section 181 of the U.S. tax code, which currently allows $15 million in accelerated deductions for productions but is set to expire this year.

Another idea is to incentivize long-term investments like sound stage construction, similar to Netflix’s 10-year deal in New Jersey. Paul, who produced Man With No Past with Voight, said he plans to shift three upcoming films to California and invest in a Los Angeles studio.