Zerohedge

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

During a State visit to the White House, British Prime Minister Kier Starmer encountered a fired up Vice President JD Vance who directly called out Starmer’s crackdown on free speech in the UK.

“There have been infringements on free speech that actually impact not just the British… but also impact American technology companies and by extension American citizens,” Vance told Starmer and the reporters in the room.

“So that is something that we’ll talk about today at lunch.”

Starmer, clearly irked by the comments responded, “We’ve had free speech for a very very long time in the United Kingdom and it will last for a very very long time,” adding that he is “proud” of his stance on free speech.

NEW: JD Vance calls out UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to his face for infringing on free speech, says he will talk to him about it at lunch.

“I said what I said…”

“There have been infringements on free speech that actually impact not just the British… but also impact… pic.twitter.com/IF88SA1sSX

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) February 27, 2025

Tell that to the millions of people he labelled as “far right” merely for expressing opinions he dislikes, or those that have been arrested and imprisoned for posting their opinions on Facebook or merely sharing memes.

Exactly

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 28, 2025

The head of UK police even threatened Americans, saying “we’ll come after you” should they decide to share their wrongthink opinions on UK events.

PM Starmer says UK values freedom of speech, tell that to the UK citizens that have been arrested in the UK for posts that goes against their governments Agenda pic.twitter.com/G0R09FuBik

— Lou (@XtremeLou) February 27, 2025

This came to a head last year when people took to the streets after the horrific murder of three little girls by a second generation Rwandan migrant.

Police began barging into people’s homes and arresting them for online posts.

People saying the ‘wrong’ thing were handed lengthy prison sentences.

The government even started releasing actual violent criminals to make space for thought criminals.

It wasn’t only Joe public, reporters were targeted for having non approved opinions.

Starmer’s leftist government in the UK also announced it will change the school curriculum in order to teach children what “extremist content and misinformation online” looks like, in order to “arm them against putrid conspiracy theories.”

They also went after people silently praying outside abortion clinics. 

You can’t think the wrong thing in your own head. 

Brits have complete free speech, unless they say something the government doesn’t want them to say.

— Scott Karren (@shkarren) February 27, 2025

In a later appearance on Fox News Thursday, Starmer continued to claim that he “champions” free speech.

🚨UK PM Keir Starmer responds to JD Vance’s torching over censorship in the UK by continuing to outright lie —

“We don’t believe in censoring speech…we champion free speech in the United Kingdom.” pic.twitter.com/UYOs3ERVjw

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) February 27, 2025

The gall of this guy.

That’s literally the most incorrect and untrue statement he could have possibly made! They’re arresting people for memes, and not only arresting them, but convicting them without a trial! Their entire justice system has been lifted from a Franz Kafka novel!

— Truth Volcano (@Truth_Volcano) February 27, 2025

What a joke, I have friends who are in the UK and they literally refuse to use anything other than signal or encrypted chats to communicate online because they are terrified of being arrested for posting.

There is NO free speech in the UK, and there hasn’t been in years.

— Walter Curt (@WCdispatch_) February 28, 2025

PM Starmer:
Can you explain why some of your people are sitting in jail for their speech? Because that’s not free speech.

— Ellie A (@EllieGAnders) February 28, 2025

Vance was spot on calling Starmer out, and he and Trump should relentlessly keep shaming any so called leaders who display such brazen contempt for freedom of expression.

Tyranny is tyranny, even if it comes from an ally.

Go JD!

— Jeff Storment (@Storment123) February 27, 2025

Starmer is here to bend the knee, he wasn’t going to go against Vance. It is easy for world leaders to talk tough about the U.S. and Trump, but at the end of their rants, they always comply.

— Gideon Rex (@GideonRexWrites) February 27, 2025

JD vance is just as savage as trump, albeit in a more measured way

I love that he’s standing up to tyrants. Incredible.

— Arthur MacWaters (@ArthurMacwaters) February 27, 2025

*  *  *

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After hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI (and various survey-based inflation expectations), today brings the Big Kahuna – The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, Core PCE – which is expected to show a dovish downturn (from +2.8% YoY to +2.6% YoY). And that is exactly what happened with headline PCE rising 0.3% MoM (as expected) and Core up 0.3% MoM (as expected). That pushed the YoY shifts lower on a sequential basis (Core PCE YoY at its lowest since June 2024)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM jump in headline PCE since April 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

The so-called SuperCore PCE (Services ex-shelter) rose 0.2% MoM, dragging the YoY print down to 3.09% – its lowest since Feb 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

On the other side of today’s data binge, Personal Spending tumbled 0.2% MoM in January (+0.2% MoM exp) even as incomes soared 0.9% MoM (+0.4% exp). That is the biggest drop in spending since Feb 2021

Source: Bloomberg

Sending the savings rate soaring as it appears Democrats refuse to spend in the new Trump 2.0 world (after all those revisions)…

Finally, we note that PCE was the only one of the ‘hard’ inflation indices to drop in January…

Source: Bloomberg

How long can The Fed rely on this gauge with liquidity rebounding?

US equity futures are higher, rebounding from an overnight rout driven by a plunge in Chinese and Japanese stocks, while the ongoing crash in bitcoin which sent the token briefly below $80K and down 25% from its all time high, is not helping the dismal sentiment. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.2% and well off the lows,signaling a rebound after the underlying index erased the last of its 2025 gains on Thursday and outperforming both Nasdaq and Russell. Mag 7 are higher led by META (+0.5%) and NVDA (+0.5%). Crypto-linked stocks are lower as Trump’s latest trade-tariff threats prompted a rush by some investors to safer assets, deepening the recent rout in Bitcoin. Bond yields are 1-2bp lower and the USD is higher as the yen finally cracks lower. Commodities are mostly lower: WTI -1.1%, copper -0.7%. Overall, we have seen equities trying to rebound modestly from yesterday’s selloff, but macro narrative has been pressured from trade/policies uncertainties (Trump is set to talk with Zelensky today) and stagflation concerns ; today we get the January PCE and income/spending report: core PCE is expected to print 2.6% YoY, vs. 2.8% prior.

In premarket trading, Meta is leading gains among the Mag 7, meanwhile, Tesla is on track to drop for a record-matching seventh consecutive session (Meta Platforms +0.6%, Alphabet +0.2%, Amazon ,Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia are little changed, while Tesla -0.2%). US-listed Chinese stocks decline in premarket trading, putting the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index on course for its first week of decline in seven. Traders are paring bets following Donald Trump’s additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slid as a rout in Bitcoin deepened on Friday, with investors rushing to safer assets in the wake of Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats. Here are some other notable movers:

• Acadia Health shares sink 19% in premarket trading after the psychiatric hospital chain gave revenue and adjusted Ebitda forecast for the year that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. The firm also reported fourth-quarter results that missed the average analyst estimate. S
• Bath & Body Works Inc. shares are up 1.5% in premarket trading, after Citi upgraded the retailer of personal care products to buy from neutral.
• Bloom Energy rises 8.0% after the electrical power equipment company reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Cava Group shares gain 1.9% in premarket trading after Piper Sandler raised the Mediterranean chain to overweight from neutral, saying it’s one of the best ways to invest in the growth of the fast-casual restaurant industry.
• DLocal shares slump as much as 23% in US premarket trading, after the payment platform operator’s earnings and guidance undershot expectations. Analysts saw this as a sign commissions are coming under pressure and Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal-weight.
• Investors in shares of JD.com Inc. face a gut check in next week’s earnings report from the online retailer as it girds for battle in the food-delivery space currently dominated by Meituan.
• Iovance Biotherapeutics shares tumble 19% in premarket trading as analysts cut their price targets on the drugmaker, citing weaker-than-expected sales for its advanced melanoma drug, Amtagvi, in the fourth quarter. Analysts see risk to the firm’s 2025 guidance.
• Monster Beverage shares gain 2.1% in premarket trading Friday after the energy-drink maker’s fourth-quarter gross margin topped the average analyst estimate. Net sales were also roughly in line with Wall Street expectations.
• PubMatic shares are down 14% in premarket trading, after the advertising technology company gave a first-quarter outlook that missed expectations. The company said the outlook “includes the continued headwind from one of our top DSP buyers that revised its auction approach in late May 2024.”
• Redfin shares are down 11% in premarket trading, after the online real estate company reported fourth-quarter results that were weaker than expected on key metrics and gave an outlook that is seen as disappointing.
• Rocket Lab shares drop as much as 13% in US premarket trading after the space company delayed the launch of its Neutron rocket to the second half of the year and issued a revenue forecast for the first quarter which fell short of estimates. This prompted analysts to either lower or place their price targets under review.
• Vital Farms shares gain 2.3% in premarket trading after Stifel raised the egg producer to buy from hold, touting the outlook for near-term growth.
• Walgreens Boots Alliance drops 3.7% in premarket trading as Deutsche Bank downgrades to sell from hold and says reports of a potential take-private deal from Sycamore Partners could be very tough to complete

The S&P 500 has slipped almost 3% this month, in part on worries that Trump’s proposed tariffs would fuel a global trade war. It’s now just about 1% from its closing level of 5,783 points on Nov. 5, the day of the Presidential election. About half of S&P 500 members are now down since election day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. On the outlook for stocks, BofA’s Michael Hartnett said a reversal of the post-election rally would spark investor expectations for intervention by the US president to support the market.  The Nov. 5 closing level is the “first strike price of a Trump put, below which investors currently long risk would very much expect and need some verbal support for markets from policymakers,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.

Attention turns later to the core personal consumption expenditures price index — which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs. The index probably rose 2.6% in the year through January, after an increase of 2.8% in December, according to Bloomberg economists. It likely ticked up to 0.27% monthly compared with 0.16% in December. A hotter-than-expected reading would prompt concern among investors, said Kevin Thozet, a portfolio advisor at Carmignac. “It would be another hint that there hasn’t been much progress on US inflation since June 2024,” he said. The inflation reading is in sharper focus after Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be enforced from March 4, while Chinese imports would face a further 10% levy. Economists say tariffs may hurt US growth, worsen inflation and possibly spark recessions in Mexico and Canada.

Bitcoin plunged, extending declines from its January peak to over 25%, in a striking pullback for one of the most popular Trump trades. The dollar edged up and Treasuries advanced, with US 10-year yields touching levels not seen since December.

“This is not an environment for de-risking,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen, on Bloomberg Television. “Perhaps it is just the case of finding hedges to protect the downside, because that 4th of March deadline is looming.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell 0.3%, although has recovered off its worst levels, with mining and technology shares faring worst  as broader risk sentiment starts to stabilize having been rocked by US President Trump’s latest pronouncements on tariffs. The benchmark was off its Friday lows after French and Italian inflation data boosted the case for European Central Bank interest-rate cuts. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Nexi shares rise as much as 7.2% as the payments firm said it’s going to distribute its first-ever €300 million in dividends, on top of a share repurchase program
• Fugro shares jump as much as 11%, their biggest gain in more than two years, after the geological data company beat earnings estimates, aided by a strong margin performance
• Amadeus shares rise as much as 7.1% to the highest in five years, after the travel IT services provider announced a €1.3b buyback program, equivalent to about 4% of market value
• Proximus gains as much as 5.4% after the Brussels-listed communications firm reported broad-based beats to fourth-quarter estimates, and reassured analysts with its outlook for 2025
• Dino Polska gains as much as 6.2%, touching a record after the food supermarket chain reported same-store sales stronger than estimates and gave upbeat guidance for 2025
• Holcim shares rise as much as 2.7% in early trading as the cement maker reported a beat in margins, particularly in North America. Analysts also noted strong cash generation
• Weir Group shares rise as much as 3.2% after the mining engineering company’s earnings beat expectations, with analysts especially positive on its margins and 2025 outlook
• Valeo shares drop as much as 11% on Friday, denting the stock’s strong start to the year, as analysts note a continued tough environment for auto suppliers
• Teleperformance shares slump as much as 16%, the most in almost a year, after the digital business services firm issued weak margin guidance for 2025
• Logitech International shares drop as much as 9% as BofA Global Research cuts its rating on the electronics maker to underperform from neutral due to its valuation and earnings outlook
• Puig shares fall as much as 5.5%, with analysts pointing to its sales guidance for 2025 which Jefferies says is “conservative” and reflects a slowdown in growth in some end markets
• Clariant shares slide as much as 12%, the most in three years and hitting the lowest since July 2012, after the chemicals maker released full-year results

Asian equities slumped, on track to snap their longest weekly winning streak in nearly a year, as US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats and underwhelming Nvidia results damped investor sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 2.5%, set to cap its worst day since Feb. 3, with Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan among the biggest drags. Shares in Hong Kong led the declines, after Trump said he would impose an additional 10% levy on imports from the Asian nation. The move aggravates growth concerns for the world’s No. 2 economy and threatens to derail a rally induced by optimism over artificial intelligence. South Korea was also among the worst performers, with the Kospi down more than 3%, as tech stocks including Samsung and SK Hynix tracked Nvidia lower after its “good-but-not-great” quarterly raised doubts on the sector’s outlook. Japanese stocks were also hit by trade and chip sector worries. Southeast Asian stocks tumbled as currency weakness and tariffs weighed on sentiment, with Thailand’s SET Index on track to enter a bear market.

The additional tariffs “deliver a negative signal to the market that the trade conflict between the two nations still exists,” said Jason Chan, a senior investment strategist at Bank of East Asia in Hong Kong. “The market in general expects trade talks will be held before a new round of tariff hikes occurs, but Trump’s latest announcement may be a surprise.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% advancing for a third session, and hitting its highest since Feb. 13, after President Donald Trump said the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would come into force from March 4, while Chinese imports would face a further 10% levy. The kiwi is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.6% against the greenback. The pound erased losses after Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said policymakers will have to take “great care” when cutting interest rates given signs of persistent inflation Earlier, the pound slipped to its lowest in more than a week against the dollar. USD/JPY rose 0.4% to 150.4, its highest level in a week.

In rates, treasuries are little changed as US session gets under way after erasing gains that sent yields to fresh YTD lows. US 10-year yield at 4.25% is back within 1bp of Thursday’s closing level after declining as much as 4bp to 4.22%, last seen in Dec. 11; earlier gains in Treasury futures were backed by a rally in JGBs after domestic inflation slowed more than expected. Core European rates outperformed after French inflation fell to its lowest level in four years and prices in Italy unexpectedly held steady — bolstered expectations for ECB rate cuts. bunds and gilts in the sector outperform by 2bp and 2.5bp; bunds gapped higher at the open, tracking the overnight rally in Treasuries and later showed little reaction to German state inflation data. French and Italian EU harmonized CPI rose less than forecast. German 10-year yields fall 3 bps to 2.38%. Gilts also gain, with UK 10-year borrowing costs dropping 3 bps to 4.48%. Bank of England interest-rate cut bets are steady after Deputy Governor Ramsden said policymakers will have to take great care when lowering rates. Focal point of US day is January personal income and spending data that include PCE price indexes, with core gauge expected to show first deceleration since September.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1% to $69.60 a barrel. Spot gold falls $15 to around $2,862/oz. Bitcoin briefly tumbles below $80000, plunging 25% from its all time high a little over a month ago.

US economic data calendar includes January personal income/spending and advance goods trade balance (8:30am), February MNI Chicago PMI and February Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee at 10:15pm.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 5,894.25
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 554.88
• MXAP down 2.4% to 183.53
• MXAPJ down 2.4% to 577.29
• Nikkei down 2.9% to 37,155.50
• Topix down 2.0% to 2,682.09
• Hang Seng Index down 3.3% to 22,941.32
• Shanghai Composite down 2.0% to 3,320.90
• Sensex down 1.8% to 73,280.16
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 8,172.35
• Kospi down 3.4% to 2,532.78
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.39%
• Euro little changed at $1.0400
• Brent Futures down 0.9% to $73.40/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.5% to $2,862.59
• US Dollar Index little changed at 107.34

Top overnight news

• Trump has said he is working on a trade deal with the UK and suggested Britain could escape tariffs if the country secured one, but the allies failed to agree on US security guarantees for Ukraine. FT
• Trump said on Truth that they are working very hard with the House and Senate to pass a clean, temporary government funding bill. Trump also announced he nominated Paul Dabbar to be the US Deputy Secretary of Commerce.
• Economists added a big disclaimer — Trump — to their view that the ECB will lower rates three more times. After an almost-certain quarter-point move next week, there’s scope for forecasts to shift abruptly. BBG
• The Treasury’s cash balance plummeted to $569 billion, the lowest since September 2023, as it navigates the debt-ceiling impasse by reducing bill auctions. Meanwhile, overnight repo rates climbed. BBG
• Mexico will extradite drug criminals to the US in a bid to avoid Trump’s tariffs. WSJ
• Donald Trump’s additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods again brought geopolitical risks to the forefront of investors’ mind, prompting the biggest selloff in Chinese stocks in months: BBG
• President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrives at the White House on Friday with a personal appeal to persuade Donald Trump not to sell out his country in the rush to make a peace deal with Russia: BBG
• French inflation retreated to its lowest level in four years, bolstering the case for further interest-rate cuts by the European Central Bank, whose next move is likely to arrive next week: BBG
• China’s Ministry of Commerce said Friday that it “firmly opposes” Trump’s latest threat to ramp up tariffs on Chinese goods (Trump announced plans for an additional 10% tariff on Chiina yesterday) and vowed retaliation, if necessary. CNBC
• Japan’s Tokyo CPI comes in below the Street at +2.9% headline (down from +3.4% in Jan and under the consensus estimate of +3.2%) and +1.9% core (flat vs. Jan and below the Street’s +2% forecast). BBG
• India’s economic growth probably accelerated to 6.2% year on year in the fourth quarter, from 5.4% in the prior period. BBG
• France’s CPI for Feb cools below expectations, coming in at +0.9% Y/Y on an EU harmonized basis, down from +1.8% in Jan and lower than the consensus forecast of +1.1%. WSJ

Tariffs

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he’s open to the idea that other countries’ tariffs could come down or go away, while it was separately reported that South Korea’s Acting President Choi and US Treasury Secretary Bessent discussed tariffs, investment, and forex policy in a video call, according to South Korea’s finance ministry.
• China’s MOFCOM said China opposes US President Trump’s latest tariffs on Chinese goods and hopes the US will avoid making the same mistake again and return to the right track of properly resolving differences through dialogue as soon as possible. Furthermore, it stated if the US insists on its own path, China will take all necessary countermeasures to defend its legitimate rights and interests.
• China’s Foreign Minister, on the remarks from US President Trump around an additional 10% tariff, says the US is once again using fentanyl as a pretext for threatening China. China opposes the tariff move. Will take all necessary measures to safeguard their legitimate interests. Rubio’s speech was filled with “cold war mentality”, adds the US coercion will backfire. China is willing to cooperate.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined with heavy pressure seen at month-end following the sell-off on Wall St with global risk sentiment hit by tariff threats and following a slump in NVIDIA shares post-earnings. ASX 200 was pressured with nearly all sectors in the red and the declines led by underperformance in miners and tech. Nikkei 225 slumped from the open and briefly dipped below the 37,000 level with the index down by more than a thousand points amid tech-related selling, while there were  mixed data releases from Japan including softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI, a miss on Retail Sales and a slightly narrower-than-feared contraction in Industrial Production. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad downbeat mood amid trade-related frictions after US President Trump announced that an additional 10% of tariffs on China is set to take effect on March 4th which is on top of the 10% tariffs the US had previously imposed earlier this month. Nonetheless, the losses in the mainland were somewhat cushioned ahead of next week’s annual ”Two Sessions” in Beijing, where markets will be hoping for fiscal stimulus.

Top Asian News

• China’s Politburo said it will implement a more proactive macro policy, expand domestic demand and will stabilise the housing market and stock market. Furthermore, it will also prevent and resolve risks and external shocks in key areas, as well as promote the sustained recovery of the economy.
• China’s state planner issued measures on promoting high-quality inclusive elderly care services and will leverage central budget investment to boost the construction of affordable elderly care facilities.
• BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said there is no change to the stance on short-term policy rate or JGB taper despite recent yield moves, and JGB yields fluctuate depending on market views on the economy, prices, and overseas developments. Uchida added the BoJ guides monetary policy towards achieving price stability not to monetise government debt.
• Japan is to crack down on the booming market for JGB-backed loans, according to Bloomberg.
• Chinese banks are reducing US dollar deposit rates following guidance from the PBoC, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• PBoC did not conduct purchase or sale of Chinese sovereign bonds from primary dealers in Feb.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) began the session entirely in the red, continuing the down-beat and risk-off mood seen in US and APAC hours. As the morning progressed, there has been an upward bias, attempting to pare back some of the early morning pressure; indices still generally reside in the red. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, given the risk-off sentiment. Construction & Materials tops the pile, lifted by post-earning strength in Holcim (+3.5%). Basic Resources is the underperformer today, given the risk-tone which has weighed on underlying metals prices. It is also no surprise that Tech is amongst the laggards, following the significant losses in NVIDIA (-8.5%) in the prior session; ASML (-2.5%)

Top European News

• BoE’s Ramsden says his conclusion from the “current elevated degree of uncertainty is that it increases the range of plausible states that the UK economy might end up in in the medium term”. “I no longer think that risks to hitting the 2% inflation target sustainably in the medium term are to the downside. Instead, I think they are two sided, reflecting the potential for more inflationary as well as disinflationary scenarios.” & On descending the Table Mountain “There may be circumstances when a slower than expected descent is justified but there will also be times when conditions require that the pace has to quicken.”

FX

• USD remains underpinned by the Trump administration’s trade policies. As a reminder, Trump clarified that there will be a “10+10” tariff on China for a total of 20% additional tariffs and that the proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to go into effect on March 4th. On the data slate, the obvious highlight is monthly PCE data for January with core M/M expected to tick higher to 0.3% from 0.2%, and the Y/Y metric forecast at 2.6% vs. prev. 2.8%.
• EUR is flat vs. the USD and pivoting around the 1.04 mark. On the data front, CPI releases thus far today have seen a softer-than-expected outturn for French inflation, whilst German state CPIs have been broadly in-line with expectations of the national release at 13:00GMT; firmer on a M/M basis and steady Y/Y. Elsewhere on the inflation front, the ECB’s survey of consumer expectations saw the 12-month forecast slip to 2.6% from 2.8% and the 3yr remain at 2.4%. Tariffs also remain on the mind of investors with the EU still in the firing line of the Trump admin, after President Trump reaffirmed his criticism of EU VAT taxes. EUR/USD briefly slipped below its 50DMA at 1.0387 before just about returning to a 1.04 handle.
• Overnight, USD/JPY saw mild downside amid haven flows into the Japanese currency but saw two-way price action with a brief surge triggered by softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data. USD/JPY has gained a firmer footing on a 150 handle with a current session peak at 150.68 vs. the YTD low printed on 25th February at 148.55.
• GBP is flat vs. the USD after briefly slipping onto a 1.25 handle. GBP has been more resilient vs. the USD compared to other peers with the UK seen to have less exposure to US tariffs than peers. Furthermore, US President Trump said the US is going to have a deal done on trade with the UK “rather quickly” and that UK PM Starmer tried to convince him not to impose tariffs on the UK during their meeting. Elsewhere, BoE’s Ramsden presented an even-handed speech in which he noted inflation risks “are two-sided. Cable, the earlier session low sits at 1.2574; if breached, last week’s low kicks in at 1.2562.
• Antipodeans are softer alongside the risk-off tone triggered by the latest Trump tariff tirade and tech losses on Wall Street.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1738 vs exp. 7.2873 (prev. 7.1740).

Fixed Income

• USTs are bid, benefitting from the marked equity sell-off seen in the second half of Thursday’s US session which reverberated into APAC trade and the European open; driven by losses in Tech and Trump confirming that the 10% measure on China is in addition to the 10% tariff he had already announced. Action that took USTs to a 111-03+ peak in APAC trade which is a YTD high for the June contract and takes us back to the 111-08 and 111-20+ peaks from November and December respectively. Focus today is on US PCE.
• Bunds are trading in tandem with USTs for the first part of the session but has since experienced a marginal pullback from highs and while still comfortably in the green, the benchmark finds itself in the lower-half of a 132.94-133.46 band. A pullback which has occurred despite the cooler-than-expected French preliminary inflation measures and the broadly in-line, when compared to expectations for the nationwide figure, German State CPIs; though, while expected, the M/M German figures did see a marked move higher which may be weighing on EGBs. The ECB SCE saw 12-month inflation expectations ease a touch whilst 3yr remained steady.
• Gilts are following the above. UK specifics include Nationwide House Price figures which lifted from the prior and showed the sixth consecutive monthly gain. Alongside that, an extensive text release from BoE’s Ramsden in which he noted that uncertainty has increased and as such a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach is warranted. Firmer but at the lower-end of 93.24 to 93.48 parameters. A further pullback brings into view the figure and then the 92.22 base from earlier in the week. While a pickup would first encounter resistance at 93.49 from mid-February and then the current WTD peak of 93.51.
• BoJ plans to buy bonds in March at same pace as February, according to a release.

Commodities

• Crude futures are lower on Friday, giving back some of the upside seen in the prior session. Some of the pressure today could be attributed to month-end profit-taking, and with traders mindful of US PCE later. Brent May sits in a USD 72.76-73.37/bbl range.
• Subdued trade across precious metals as European players reacted to the surge in the Dollar yesterday amid US President Trump’s tariff rhetoric, with nothing new to add during European hours. Spot gold resides in a USD 2,851.11-2,885.24/oz range.
• Base metals are lower across the board amid the risk-off sentiment amid Trump’s tariff rhetoric which seeks to impose an additional 10% tariff on China on top of the February 4th 10% levy. 3M LME copper fell further below USD 9,500/t and resides in a USD 9,331.90-9,405.65/t range at the time of writing.
• Oman crude OSP USD 77.63/bbl in April vs. March USD 80.26/bbl, according to GME data cited by Reuters.
• Iraq Oil Ministry says it will announce a resumption of oil exports in the next few hours; initial oil flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region through Turkey will be at 185k barrels, and will increase gradually.
• A group of eight oil firms operating in Iraqi Kurdistan and Apikur say there will be no resumption of oil exports through Iraq-Turkey pipeline on Friday, has not been any formal outreach to member companies with regards to resumption of oil exports yet

Geopolitics

• Israeli army storms the West Bank city of Nablus, via Sky news Arabia citing Palestinian News Agency

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Jan. Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • Jan. Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.8%
  • Jan. PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • Jan. PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.6%
  • Jan. Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
  • Jan. Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.7%
  • Jan. Real Personal Spending, est. -0.1%, prior 0.4%
• 08:30: Jan. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$116.6b, prior -$122.1b, revised -$122b
• 08:30: Jan. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.3%
  • Jan. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.5%
• 09:45: Feb. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 40.8, prior 39.5
• 11:00: Feb. Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior -4

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Friday. It’s been a busy week of travel and dinners, and on getting home last night our kitchen cupboards had finished being repainted. I couldn’t tell any difference. When I told my wife that, she said (and I’m paraphrasing to get through compliance), “How on earth can you not tell? They were getting disgusting and now they look new”. I didn’t think they needed doing but I can’t tell if that’s me lacking standards or whether my wife has too high ones. Now we’re 7-8 years on since we gutted our house and starting again I fear this is the first of many redecoration altercations!

Markets were in a stressed mood of their own yesterday, with renewed tariff threats from President Trump in addition to a sharp tech sell-off that saw the Magnificent 7 (-3.03%) post its worst day of 2025 so far as Nvidia slumped -8.48% after its earnings the previous evening. This marked a sixth consecutive decline for the Mag-7, the first time that’s happened since April last year, and it now leaves the index -13.56% beneath its December peak. In turn, the S&P 500 fell -1.59%, moving back into the red YTD and on course for its worst week since September, while the VIX closed above 20 for the first time this year (+2.03pts to 21.13).

Risk assets had already come under some pressure after President Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico were still scheduled for this Tuesday, March 4. In a post on Truth Social, President Trump said that “Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada”, and that “until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled.” On top of that, he said that China would face an additional 10% tariff, and then on April 2, the reciprocal tariffs would also go into force.

Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that at the start of February, the proposed tariffs were extended by a month with just hours to spare. And President Trump’s post did leave some room for another extension or deal, as he used the phrase “until it stops, or is seriously limited”, suggesting there was a way of avoiding them. However, if they do come into place for a prolonged period, then the same framework from before would apply, with Canada and Mexico likely to go into an imminent recession. Moreover, it would raise US inflation, and make it more likely that the Fed doesn’t cut this year at all. Our US economists have previously suggested that the 25% tariffs on their two neighbours would reduce US growth by between 0.4 to 0.7% in 2025 and raise core PCE by between 0.3% to 0.7% if sustained. See their analysis here.

In terms of whether a deal could be reached, officials in Canada and Mexico were both still talking as though that was possible. Indeed, Mexican President Sheinbaum said yesterday that “I hope we can reach an agreement and that on March 4 we can announce something else”. Meanwhile, Canada’s public safety minister David McGuinty said in Washington yesterday that “We are quite convinced that the efforts we’ve made thus far should satisfy the US administration”. And given the last extension was made in the final 24 hours, it’s not implausible that markets won’t start to price the full impact of tariffs until after they actually come into force. However, in the case of China, it’s worth bearing in mind that they didn’t reach a deal, and the 10% tariff did come into force earlier this month, so this would be an extra 10% on top of that.  

Although investors are still anticipating a potential last-minute deal again, the most tariff-sensitive assets saw an immediate reaction to Trump’s post. For instance, the Canadian dollar weakened by -0.69% against the US Dollar, while the euro fell to back below 1.04 against the dollar posting its worst day in eight weeks (-0.83%). Elsewhere in Europe, the STOXX Automobiles and Parts index was already having a bad day given President Trump’s announcements of 25% auto tariffs on the EU, but it extended its losses to close -3.73% lower. More broadly, there was underperformance for the DAX in Germany (-1.07%) and the FTSE MIB in Italy (-1.53%), two countries relatively more exposed to trade with the US, while the STOXX 600 fell -0.46%.

On top of the tariffs, we got some more inflationary news from the latest Q4 GDP data, as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure of PCE was revised up on the second estimate. It showed that headline PCE was now running at +2.4% in Q4, an upward revision of a tenth, whilst core PCE was revised up two-tenths to +2.7%. So it’s in a zone where it’s still lingering above target, and that’s before the imposition of any Trump tariffs. With WTI crude oil prices also moving +2.52% higher yesterday to $70.35/bbl, investors moved to price in higher inflation, with the 1yr inflation swap bouncing +5.7bps higher on the day to 2.925%. Looking forward, that inflation focus will continue today, as we’ve got the PCE numbers for January coming out, and our US economists are expecting a core PCE reading of +0.27%.

For rates, the combination of a risk-off tone and a more inflationary backdrop drove a curve steepening. Despite the rise in near-term inflation pricing, the front-end saw a modest rally as investors moved to price in 61bps on Fed cuts by December (+1.4bps on the day). This saw 2yr Treasury yields (-2.0bps) fall to a new 4-month low of 4.05%, while the 2yr real yield fell to 0.87%, its lowest since August 2022. By contrast, 10 year yields ended a run of 6 consecutive declines (+0.4bps to 4.26%). However, overnight in Asia they’ve rallied a sizeable -4bps for this time of day, trading at 4.22% as I type.

Over in Europe, sovereign bonds had seen a modest rally, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.0bps) and OATs (-0.9bps) moving slightly lower. That came as the Spanish CPI release for February was in line with expectations, with the EU-harmonised measure at +2.9%, so the lack of an upside surprise helped reassure investors ahead of the numbers from other countries, including France, Italy and Germany today.

President Trump’s comments again drew attention later in the day with Keir Starmer’s visit to Washington. On trade, President Trump said he envisaged “a real trade deal” with the UK, which could mean that tariffs were “not necessary”. On Ukraine, the UK Prime Minister said that the UK would be ready to puts “boots on the ground” to support a peace deal. While saying he supported NATO’s Article 5, President Trump refrained from promising any US backstop for European involvement in Ukraine, stating “I don’t like to talk about peacekeeping until we have a deal”. Ukraine will remain in the headlines today with President Zelenskiy due to visit Trump in Washington, as the two are expected to sign a deal on Ukrainian minerals. The ongoing focus on European defence saw Germany’s Rheinmetall (+3.20%) continue to outperform yesterday, taking its YTD gains to +62.87%.

Asian equity markets are tumbling this morning with the KOSPI (-3.28) and the Nikkei (-3.10%) the largest underperformers with the latter plunging to its lowest level since mid-September 2024 while the Hang Seng (-2.78%) is also trading sharply lower as local tech shares are slumping following the Nvidia sell-off on Wall Street overnight. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.18%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.29%) are also trading lower. US equity futures have stabilised and are up around a tenth of a percent.

Early morning data showed that headline inflation for Tokyo came in at +2.9% y/y in February (v/s +3.2% expected) down from +3.4% in January. At the same time, Tokyo’s core consumer prices rose by +2.2% y/y in February, a deceleration from January’s 2.5% increase, an 11-month high, and a tenth lower than expectations. The same miss as core/core inflation. Separately, other data showed that Japan’s industrial production in January decreased by -1.1% m/m, aligning with market expectations and compared to a -0.2% contraction in December. Concurrently, retail sales experienced a +3.9% y/y gain in January, in line with projections as against a +3.5% gain in the prior month.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the French, German and Italian CPI prints for February, along with US PCE inflation for January. Otherwise, we’ll get Canada’s Q4 GDP, and German unemployment for February. Elsewhere, central bank speakers include the BoE’s Ramsden.

The US Justice Department revealed Thursday evening that Mexico has begun extraditing dozens of high-level cartel leaders to the US, as President Trump reiterated that 25% tariffs on Mexican goods will take effect next Tuesday.

“The defendants taken into US custody today include leaders and managers of drug cartels recently designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists,” the DoJ wrote in a statement, adding these terrorists are facing charges including racketeering, drug-trafficking, murder, illegal use of firearms, money laundering, and other crimes.

Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office and Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection released this statement: “This morning, 29 people who were deprived of their liberty in different penitentiary centers in the country were transferred to the United States of America, which were required due to their links with criminal organizations for drug trafficking, among other crimes.” 

The Mexican government released these photos of 29 cartel leaders… 

The Associated Press reported that the extradition of high-level cartel leaders, including Rafael Caro Quintero, a former leader of the Guadalajara cartel involved in the kidnapping and murder of a DEA agent, came after Mexican Foreign Minister Juan Ramón de la Fuente and other Mexican officials met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in recent days. 

“As President Trump has made clear, cartels are terrorist groups, and this Department of Justice is devoted to destroying cartels and transnational gangs,” Attorney General Pamela Bondi said in a statement.

Ahead of the extradition, Trump wrote on Truth Social: 

Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at  very high and unacceptable levels. A large percentage of these Drugs, much of them in the form of Fentanyl, are made in, and supplied by, China. More than 100,000 people died last year due to the distribution of these dangerous and highly addictive POISONS. Millions of people have died over the last two decades. The families of the victims are devastated and, in many instances, virtually destroyed. We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled. China will likewise be charged an additional 10% Tariff on that date. The April Second Reciprocal Tariff date will remain in full force and effect.

Trump’s 25% tariff threat on Mexico has led to Mexican officials beefing up US-Mexico border security to dismantle human trafficking networks, cartels, and fentanyl production. This all comes as Trump’s mandate from the American people is to fix the border crisis and stop the drug overdose crisis, which claims the lives of 100,000 Americans annually.

Last week, US Border Czar Tom Homan told Fox News’ Jesse Watters that Trump intends to dismantle the command and control centers of Mexican drug cartels, vowing to “put them out of business” and “wipe them off the face of the Earth.” 

Readers should understand that the disrupt-and-dismantle strategy is broad, targeting not only Mexican cartels but also transnational criminal organizations spanning from Canada to China.

We must caution that the fight against cartels could get messy, considering the Biden-Harris regime intentionally flooded the nation with thousands of Tren de Aragua terrorists.  

Next, the US will likely prepare sanctions on financial institutions to bust cartel funding networks. 

This is what ‘America First’ looks like.

Via SchiffGold.com,

A recent piece in the New York Times encouraged readers to buy gold, noting its record-breaking run since 2020. However, what the article gets wrong is associating the phenomenon with presidential policies instead of central bank monetary policy. Treasury policies can contribute to money supply growth by issuing debt, and presidential policies can add fuel to economic fires. 

But money printing and sustained artificially-low interest rates are why inflation keeps resurging no matter which political party is in power.

As Peter Schiff recently said on X:

Trump has given the Fed a gift, as FOMC members will blame the coming surge in inflation on tariffs. But tariffs won’t be the cause. Resurgent inflation will result from the Fed’s monetary policy mistakes. They held interest rates too low for too long and printed too much money.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 20, 2025

The Fed is permanent, and can’t be reformed. 

No matter who joins the Board of Governors or who becomes Fed Chairman, the only tools that central banks really know how to use are inflationary. Money printing and artificially-low interest rates are the only methods the Fed has in their effort to manage the economy.

Inflation is an expansion of the money supply, not the rise in prices. Prices go up as a result of inflation, not the other way around. But while the NYT piece attributes this 12% increase in 2025—following a 27% rise in 2024—to President Donald Trump’s second-term policies, such as tariffs and deportation plans, the fundamental driver is that central bank monetary policy has inflated the money supply and eroded confidence in fiat currency, propelling gold’s ascent. 

Analysts like those quoted in the NYT article suggest that Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, could stoke inflation by raising import costs. Economists quoted in the piece note that such measures, combined with labor market pressures from deportation policies, are pushing investors toward gold. This makes sense on the surface — disruptions to trade and labor can indeed lift prices, and higher costs for imports will just be passed onto consumers. But money supply growth is what inflation is; price increases are just one of its downstream effects. Gold’sgain suggests a deeper unease tied to the Federal Reserve’s actions rather than any single administration.

The money supply (M2) has ballooned from $15.4 trillion in early 2020 to over $21 trillion today, according to Fed data. Meanwhile, interest rates remain below historical norms. Low rates discourage saving and devalue fiat currency, making gold—a finite asset immune to printing presses—an attractive hedge. The Times focuses on Trump’s tariff threats, but central banks set the stage long ago.

M2, 1981 to Present

Source

The World Gold Council reports that central banks bought 1,037 tons of gold in 2024, up 6% from 2023, signaling a shift away from dollar dominance. Physical demand is also straining markets, with the article noting New York futures traders awaiting bars from London vaults.

The Times mentions Trump’s quip about auditing Fort Knox “to make sure the gold is there,” a comment Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed. Official figures peg U.S. reserves at 8,133 metric tons, but the last full audit of Fort Knox was in 1953. While the article treats this as a sidebar, it underscores a valid point: opaque, dictatorial monetary systems fuel skepticism. Central banks control the levers but, unlike politicians, their “errors” are academic and esoteric enough to evade mainstream scrutiny. 

The Times captures a symptom—gold at $2,900—and correctly tells its readers to buy, wisely realizing that this bull run isn’t over. But it misses the root cause of the gold spike, and assumes that inflation and higher prices are the same thing. Central banks, with their printing presses and interest rate policies, are the architects of inflation. Lots of things can increase prices, and money supply inflation is one powerful force among many as it erodes the purchasing power of the dollar and continues sending gold to record highs.

After years of companies embracing remote work and hybrid models, a major shift back to in-office work could be underway.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist’s Govind Bhutana, highlights the surge in return-to-office by industry, using data from McKinsey & Company’s survey of 8,426 employees from various industries in the United States.

Which Industries Are Returning to the Office?

Across all industries, the share of employees reporting to work in person doubled to 68% in 2024, from 34% in 2023.

However, some sectors are seeing much higher levels of in-office work than others. The table below breaks down the return-to-office trend by industry:

The consumer and retail industry saw the highest growth in return to the office, with 87% of the employees reporting to work in person.

Public sector jobs also saw a sharp rise, with two-thirds of workers now in the office most days. Recently, President Trump also announced that all federal employees must agree to return to in-person work by the first week of February or be terminated.

Additionally, 84% of employees in the Education sector worked mostly in office in 2024, despite the prevalence of EdTech tools over the last few years.

The End of Remote Work?

Remote work declined sharply between 2023 and 2024. McKinsey’s survey found that the share of remote workers across all industries fell to 17% in 2024, less than half of the 44% in 2023.

Over the past year, major Fortune 500 companies—including JP Morgan, Amazon, and Nike—have implemented return-to-office mandates, requiring employees to report to the office at least four days a week. Other organizations, along with the U.S. federal workforce, are following the trend.

However, employee sentiment remains mixed. Many still prefer the flexibility of remote and hybrid work models, while others appreciate the structure and teamwork of being in the office.

Despite the rise of in-person work, many high-paying remote jobs still exist out there. Check out Remote Jobs with the Highest Demand on the Voronoi app to learn more.

Authored by Ronald Beaty via RealClearEnergy,

By February 21, 2025, the trumpet has sounded: Donald Trump’s second term has begun, and with it, the swift reversal of Biden’s LNG export pause. This isn’t mere policy tinkering—it’s a seismic recalibration of America’s role in the global energy chessboard. 

For conservatives, it’s a clarion call to reclaim energy dominance, secure jobs, and outmaneuver rivals. Yet, as the United States barrels toward an LNG export renaissance, a fresh realism must guide us—one that marries unapologetic ambition with a clear-eyed reckoning of trade-offs. RealClearEnergy readers—policymakers, industry titans, and patriots—deserve a vision that celebrates this moment while charting its complexities.

The Triumph of American Shale

Let’s start with the stakes. Biden’s 2024 LNG export freeze was a sop to climate ideologues, stalling terminals like CP2 and choking billions in Gulf Coast investment. Trump’s Day One reversal—likely formalized by now—unleashes a torrent: the U.S., already the world’s top LNG exporter at 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), could double capacity by 2035, hitting 30 Bcf/d with 12 new projects. This isn’t just gas—it’s leverage. Europe, unshackled from Russia’s grip since Ukraine’s transit deal died January 1, 2025, will guzzle 20 Bcf/d by decade’s end. Asia, led by China’s 100 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) appetite, follows suit. The American Petroleum Institute pegs this at 1.5 million jobs—welders in Louisiana, traders in Houston, families thriving.

Conservatives see the gospel here: free markets, not green dogma, deliver prosperity. LNG exports, projected to rival oil’s $200 billion annual haul, turbocharge GDP while slashing allies’ reliance on despots. Russia’s Gazprom, bled dry at 5% of global LNG share, can’t compete with Sabine Pass’s bounty. Qatar scrambles as U.S. shale undercuts its Hormuz Strait chokehold. This is Reagan’s “peace through strength” reborn—energy as a weapon of liberty, not coercion.

A New Realism: Beyond Blind Boosterism

Yet, triumphalism alone won’t suffice. LNG’s ascent demands a conservatism that’s muscular but mature—call it “shale realism.” First, the price paradox: flooding markets with 100 MTPA could drop global LNG from $15/MMBtu to $8 by 2032, a boon for buyers but a squeeze on producers. Henry Hub, at $2.50/MMBtu today, might climb to $4 as exports drain stocks, testing Trump’s “cheap energy” pledge. Conservatives mustn’t flinch—higher domestic prices are the cost of global primacy, a trade-off worth every penny if it bankrupts Putin’s war chest.

Second, the tariff tightrope. Trump’s 10% EU levy threat—60% for China—could backfire. Europe might stomach it, grateful for gas over Russian blackmail, but China’s retaliation could cap U.S. LNG at 15 MTPA, rerouting flows to Japan or India. Here’s a novel fix: tie LNG deals to trade pacts—discounts for tariff waivers. Imagine Beijing swapping solar panel exports for $10/MMBtu gas, a détente that cools trade wars while greening China’s grid. It’s pragmatic, not pandering—a conservative win through cunning.

The Climate Conundrum: LNG as Bridge, Not Bogeyman

Enter the green chorus: LNG’s methane leaks—1% of output, per the Environmental Defense Fund—could add 100 million tons of CO2-equivalent annually at scale. Trump’s likely methane rule rollback stokes their ire, and they’re not wrong to flag emissions. But here’s where shale realism shines: LNG isn’t the enemy of climate goals—it’s the midwife. Displacing Europe’s coal (30% cleaner) and China’s (55% of its mix), U.S. gas could cut global emissions by 500 million tons yearly, dwarfing leaks. By 2040, this bridge could halve coal’s share, buying time for fusion or next-gen solar.

Critics cry “fossil fuel lock-in,” but that’s a strawman. LNG’s flexibility—unlike rigid pipelines—lets renewables scale without blackouts. Picture Germany: its coal plants fade as U.S. gas fills gaps, wind turbines humming by 2035. Conservatives should own this narrative: LNG isn’t denialism—it’s discipline, a transition fuel that starves tyrants while science catches up.

Geopolitical Judo: Flipping the Board

Now, the grand play. Trump’s LNG surge isn’t just supply—it’s strategy. Europe, at 40% of exports by 2030, becomes a U.S. vassal in energy, not ideology—NATO’s glue thickens without a bullet fired. China, hooked on 20% of our LNG, trades coal smog for American molecules, a dependency Trump can tweak with tariffs or diplomacy. Russia, limping at 20 billion cubic meters to Europe, pivots to a discounted Siberia 2—China pays $8/MMBtu, not $12, bleeding Moscow dry.

Here’s an original twist: LNG as soft power. Trump could launch an “Energy Freedom Initiative”—subsidized exports to Africa’s microgrids, outpacing China’s $50 billion oil grab. Kenya’s 100 MW solar pairs with U.S. gas backups, electrifying villages without Beijing’s strings. By 2040, America owns the developing world’s energy soul—capitalism’s quiet coup.

The Balanced Ledger: Risks and Remedies

Shale realism demands candor. Oversupply risks stranding $50 billion in terminals if Europe goes 60% renewable by 2035—Cheniere’s bet could sour. Methane’s shadow looms; a voluntary industry standard—say, 0.5% leakage caps—could blunt critics without EPA meddling. Trade wars might shrink exports to 20 Bcf/d, but a “LNG bloc” with Japan and India hedges that bet.

Conservatives mustn’t dodge these. Champion LNG, yes, but innovate: tax credits for methane capture, not just drilling. Pair exports with fusion R&D—$1 trillion by 2040, privately led. This isn’t capitulation—it’s command of the future.

The Verdict: A Legacy Worth Forging

Trump’s LNG reversal is a conservative dream: jobs, power, liberty. By 2035, 35 Bcf/d could flow—40% to Asia, 30% to Europe—redefining energy’s map. Prices might settle at $10/MMBtu, coal withers, and Russia fades. Yet, shale realism elevates this beyond bravado. It’s a chance to wield LNG as a scalpel—cutting rivals, bridging climate gaps, and electrifying allies—all while fueling America’s heartland.

RealClearEnergy’s readers know the drill: energy isn’t sentiment—it’s strategy. Trump 2.0 can etch a legacy not just of dominance, but of dexterity. Let’s seize it, eyes wide open, and shape a world where American gas lights the way.

Ronald Beaty is a former Barnstable County Commissioner, and a lifelong resident of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Something sinister is lurking in the heart of Africa, and no one knows what it is. A mysterious illness has swept through two remote villages in northwestern Congo, killing 53 people in just five weeks – some within hours of falling sick.

Health officials are scrambling to figure out what’s behind the deadly outbreaks in Equateur Province, but answers remain elusive. With 419 reported cases and the death toll rising, fear and speculation are gripping the region.

A Tale of Two Villages

The outbreaks began on January 21 in two villages separated by more than 120 miles. In the tiny village of Boloko, the first victims were children who had eaten a bat (oh?). Within 48 hours, they were dead, according to the Associated Press. Weeks later, hundreds more cases surfaced in Bomate, where at least some patients also tested positive for malaria. Are the two outbreaks connected? Health officials still don’t know.

Dr. Serge Ngalebato, medical director of Bikoro Hospital, says this is an ‘unusual situation.’

“The first one with a lot of deaths, that we continue to investigate because it’s an unusual situation, (and) in the second episode that we’re dealing with, we see a lot of the cases of malaria.” 

Congo’s Ministry of Health reports that about 80% of patients share symptoms including fever, chills, body aches, and diarrhea. These symptoms are common in many tropical infections, but what has scientists on edge is the rapid death of many victims.

Initially, fears of Ebola ran high, as the virus has struck Congo multiple times before. But lab tests in Kinshasa ruled out Ebola and its deadly cousin, Marburg. Now, health officials are considering everything from viral hemorrhagic fever to food poisoning, typhoid, and even meningitis.

“The speed at which people are dying in Boloko is alarming,” the WHO Africa office said in a statement. “We need to accelerate laboratory investigations, improve case management, and strengthen surveillance before it spreads further.”

Congo’s Deadly Pattern

This isn’t the first time an unknown illness has swept through Congo. Just last December, a similar outbreak claimed dozens of lives. The country’s weak healthcare system and remote geography make it difficult to track and contain diseases before they spiral out of control.

Many of these deadly outbreaks stem from the region’s deep forests, where viruses jump from animals to humans. Scientists warn that as long as people continue eating bushmeat—including bats, a known carrier of deadly pathogens—Congo will remain a hotbed for mysterious diseases.

“All these viruses have reservoirs in the forest,” said Gabriel Nsakala, a professor of public health at Congo’s National Pedagogical University. “As long as these forests exist, we will always have outbreaks.”

The Congolese government has sent teams of experts to the affected villages, but the remote locations are making containment efforts difficult. Patients are receiving treatments targeting their symptoms, but without a known cause, there’s no cure in sight.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization is calling for urgent international assistance. The U.S. has historically been the largest donor to Congo’s health sector, but with foreign aid currently under review, it’s unclear whether resources will arrive in time.

As the mystery illness continues its deadly march, one thing is clear: Congo is once again at the mercy of an invisible killer. And until scientists can crack the case, fear and uncertainty will reign supreme.

Authored by Mark Oaks via RealClearPolicy,

For years, unelected regulators and global financial firms have colluded and used other people’s money to force businesses to address climate change and social issues. Under the guise of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG), proponents diverted capital away from the energy sector, prioritizing political activism over prudent financial stewardship. The resulting misallocation of capital is most acutely felt in Europe, where energy prices are four times higher than in the U.S.

Sadly, the EU continues to push ESG through regulation with the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directives (CSRD). The CSRD imposes sweeping ESG mandates on companies with operations in the EU, even if they are headquartered in the U.S. “CSRD is the EU’s new regulation requiring companies to disclose their environmental and social impact…and hold businesses accountable for their sustainability efforts.”

That is why I, along with 25 of my fellow state financial officers, sent a letter to President Trump asking him to direct the United States Trade Representative to open an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 into the European Union’s CSRD. This provision allows the President to take action against foreign regulations that unfairly burden U.S. businesses.

The CSRD is costly, prioritizes political agendas over investor returns, and undermines U.S. sovereignty. Given the sweeping scope of the EU’s ESG requirements, a Section 301 investigation is fully justified.

The directives mandate companies to report on ESG impacts and performance, including initiatives to reduce their environmental impact. And, even though President Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement, it requires companies, including U.S. businesses, to develop and implement a Paris-compliant transition plan for climate change mitigation.

Beyond their own operations, businesses must disclose the potential ESG impacts of companies within their supply chain, including Scope 3 emissions. In 2024, even the SEC shied away from such onerous disclosures due to high compliance costs, inconsistent and unreliable Scope 3 data, and the legal uncertainties surrounding the rule itself. The CSRD also introduces a radical concept of “double materiality.” This means not only reporting on financially material risks, but also on speculative societal impacts. This goes far beyond the long-established U.S. legal definition of materiality, creating a legal minefield for American businesses.

The directives also invite frivolous lawsuits from activist groups and trial lawyers seeking to weaponize ESG disclosures. They are built on assumptions about climate change that will force companies to incriminate themselves. Traditional energy has no reliable, abundant, affordable alternatives, so, of course, companies are dependent on it for their underlying activities.

Since CSRD requirements extend European regulators’ authority to U.S. companies, these bureaucrats will dictate in-scope issues that American companies must address, including within their domestic operations. This regulatory overreach undermines U.S. sovereignty.

U.S. companies are unwinding from the coercive ESG scheme. Many of our largest financial institutions, including banks, insurance companies, and asset managers, have pulled out of the collusive global net-zero alliances. The EU, in contrast, seems determined to carry on the deleterious ESG cabal despite the demonstrably detrimental impacts that have resulted.

The recent American Airlines retirement plan litigation highlights the risks of prioritizing non-pecuniary interests in investment decisions. Judge Reed O’Connor noted that ESG investments often underperform traditional ones by about 10% and stated that it is irrational for shareholders or investment managers to push companies like Exxon to act in ways that undermine their own profits.

The EU’s ESG policies have already crippled European economies, driving energy shortages and economic stagnation. The directives will exacerbate capital misallocation and weaken the economies of both Europe and the United States. This not only harms the financial interests of states but also drains financial resources from shareholders.

Even within Europe, the directives are controversial. President Macron of France has asked the EU to postpone their implementation indefinitely. As Brussels re-examines the directives, the U.S. has an opening to assert its opposition.

President Trump’s administration has taken critical steps to free American markets from the grip of ESG mandates. We must extend that fight to the international stage. By taking a firm stance now, the U.S. can protect American businesses, restore market principles, and encourage Europe to rethink its self-destructive policies.

We must act swiftly to ensure that Europe’s regulatory failures do not become America’s burdens.

Marlo Oaks is the State Treasurer of Utah.

BP’s CEO is setting an ambitious goal to more than double the company’s market value to $200bn within five years, restoring it to pre-Deepwater Horizon levels, according to the Financial Times.

Murray Auchincloss told the Financial Times that BP plans to take advantage of “tremendous” demand for oil and gas after abandoning its push into green energy. “At the end of the decade, it would be nice to be back to where we were before Macondo,” he said, referring to the disastrous oil spill that cost BP $62.5bn in clean-up efforts.

His comments followed BP’s decision to cut annual spending on renewables by 70% and shift its focus back to fossil fuels. The company’s current market value stands at just under £70bn ($89bn).

BP’s latest strategy shift acknowledges that the energy transition is progressing more slowly than anticipated, though the market response has been anything but euphoric.

“Oil and gas demand is going to be around for a long time,” said CEO Murray Auchincloss when asked about BP’s future beyond 2050. He pointed to the rising electricity needs of data centers, making gas a crucial fuel source. “The challenge is how do we decarbonize this stuff as much as you can,” he added, noting BP’s active efforts in carbon capture.

The Financial Times report notes that despite dropping all renewable targets and planning to move its wind and solar businesses off the balance sheet, Auchincloss insists they will remain “very big” parts of BP. He defended the company’s measured approach, stating, “You don’t announce a strategy change until you change it,” arguing that premature announcements would have lacked credibility.

BP has faced criticism for slow execution, particularly after activist investor Elliott took a nearly 5% stake and pushed for more aggressive changes. A source familiar with Elliott’s position said BP’s plans fell short, advocating for major divestments and further cuts to renewables spending. Bloomberg first reported the hedge fund’s dissatisfaction.

Auchincloss declined to comment on any engagement with Elliott but expressed no regrets about his first year as CEO. “Nothing comes top of mind,” he said.

Auchincloss acknowledged that the company will face short-term financial challenges as it rebuilds its oil and gas portfolio after years of downsizing. However, he emphasized that future growth will largely come from the U.S. and the Middle East.

“We’re more American than an awful lot of the American companies are,” he said, highlighting his focus on attracting U.S. investors. Over the coming weeks, BP’s management team plans to engage with more than a third of its shareholders through roadshows. Despite this push, Auchincloss clarified that relocating BP’s listing to the U.S. is “not on the agenda.”

Addressing concerns that BP lags behind rivals like ExxonMobil and Chevron in market value, he defended the company’s assets. “Our size is smaller, but the quality of our assets is exceptionally high,” he said, describing BP’s upstream operations as “world class” and a major competitive advantage. He also pointed out BP’s strong trading operations, something he claimed American companies lack.