Zerohedge

Update(1348ET): Ukraine has tentatively agreed to Trump’s mineral rights access deal, Financial Times is reporting in breaking headline. The devil will of course be in the details, given as recently as Sunday Zelensky was openly resistant to the terms offered so far.

“Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term US security commitment,” FT reports early Tuesday afternoon.

“Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is now ready to sign the agreement on jointly developing its mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped demands for a right to $500bn in potential revenue from exploiting the resources,” the report continues.

But again nothing appears to be ultimately finalized, and there will yet be plenty of haggling over what exactly this will look like. Snippets of draft agreements have been leaked, but little in the way of the more controversial details.

“The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it’s part of a bigger picture,” Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and justice minister who has led the negotiations, told the same publication.

As we detailed below, Europe is actually offering its own rival version, which could be part of yet more efforts to stall and sabotage a Washington deal. President Putin himself is also touting discussions over “major” cooperation with US companies, including on access to Russia’s rare earth minerals.

The US has said ‘no’ to NATO membership for Ukraine, even as some European leaders continue to push this dubious future scenario. Zelensky has even talked stepping down if this could guaranteed future NATO membership, but also as Ukraine’s parliament has extended his mandate, with no new elections on the horizon.

* * *

In a wide-ranging new interview with Russia 1 TV, President Vladimir Putin touted that his country is in talks with the United States over cooperating on “major” joint economic projects.

The Monday remarks came two weeks following his first phone call with President Trump after the US leader took office for the second time. “Some Russian and American companies are in contact and discussing major projects,” Putin said.

This is being confirmed by the US side as well, given Trump in a Truth Social post also revealed that major “economic development transactions which will take place between the US and Russia” are in the works. He said that ongoing discussions are “proceeding very well” — coming off last week’s bilateral Riyadh talks led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia’s Sergey Lavrov.

Putin has also this week been taking steps to make Russia an inviting place for US companies to operate once again, after well over 1,000 of them have curtailed or closed up operations in the wake of the Ukraine war’s start.

“For many years, US trade policy has been tied to sanctions. We consider these sanctions illegal and harmful to global trade,” Putin described said in the interview.

As for which areas the US and Russia might cooperate on, Putin didn’t detail the talks down the that level, but did tease that Russia is ready to work with “foreign partners” including companies on mining minerals.

That’s when he claimed in the interview that we [Russia] “undoubtedly have, I want to emphasize, significantly more resources of this kind than Ukraine” and said: “We would be ready to offer this to our American partners… if they showed interest in working together.“

“As for the new territories, it’s the same. We are ready to attract foreign partners to the so-called new, to our historical territories, which have returned to the Russian Federation,” he added. This provocative statement appeared to reference the four annexed territories in Ukraine’s east: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.

Western media has described that this is an “eye-catching” move by the Russian leader:

He also suggested that Russia and the US could collaborate on aluminium production in Krasnoyarsk, in Siberia, where one Russian aluminium maker, Rusal, has its largest smelters.

The televised comments followed a cabinet meeting on Russia’s natural resources.

On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists the proposal opened up “quite broad prospects”, adding that the US needed rare earth minerals and Russia had “a lot of them”.

Offering the US access to minerals is an eye-catching move by Putin, given how much pride the Kremlin has taken in keeping Russia’s natural wealth in Russian hands. In 2023 Putin accused the West, particularly the US, of trying to “dismember” Russia to gain access to its natural resources.

We’ve certainly come a long way from the Biden administration goal of ‘weakening Russia’ – to use the words of former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

🇷🇺🇺🇸 Putin reveals that Russia and the U.S. could launch joint aluminum mining projects in Krasnoyarsk, requiring $15B in investment.

One of the past problems in Russia-U.S. relations? A lack of deep business ties—Moscow mostly traded with the EU. Now, the strategy seems clear:… pic.twitter.com/GeqMoFDFby

— Brian McDonald (@27khv) February 24, 2025

Meanwhile, as the White House aggressively pursues a final deal for access to Ukraine’s mineral deposits, including rare earths, Zelensky has appeared to resist.

Europe has at the same time offered its own alternative deal which Zelensky is likely to favor. Europe’s Commissioner for Industrial Strategy Stéphane Séjourné has said he’s pitching the rival plan to Kiev officials. “Twenty-one of the 30 critical materials Europe needs can be provided by Ukraine in a win-win partnership,” Séjourné said.

* * *

Below are more highlights from Putin’s Russia 1 interview, paraphrased and translated via Russian state media…

‘Rational’ Trump

Putin suggested that Trump sees Zelensky as an obstacle to stabilizing Ukraine and securing a peace deal: “Trump likely understands that Zelensky is a destabilizing factor. He wants to bring Ukrainians back together, consolidate its society, and create conditions for the survival of the Ukrainian state.”

Addressing claims that Trump’s position on Ukraine plays into Russia’s hands, Putin strongly disagreed: “In the current situation, strange as it may seem, we would be more interested in [Zelensky] sitting there and further corrupting the regime with which we are in an armed conflict. And from the point of view of strengthening Ukrainian statehood, it is necessary to act in a completely different direction – to bring to power those who will enjoy the trust of the people of Ukraine.”

The Russian president also commented on Trump’s political style, rejecting the notion that the US president acts based purely on emotion: “No, of course not. His actions are based on cold calculation and a rational approach to the situation.”

The role of Europe

Putin argued that European politicians are “shackled” by their past commitments and are unable to change their approach to Ukraine without losing credibility: “Unlike the newly elected US president, European leaders are tied to the current regime in Kiev. They are too invested and have made too many promises.”

He criticized Europe’s reaction to recent US-Russia diplomatic interactions, saying: “Their response was emotional and lacked practical meaning. Instead of addressing real issues, they focus on maintaining appearances.”

While dismissing demands by EU officials to have a say in Russia-US negotiations, Putin acknowledged that European involvement could be useful in broader discussions: “Their participation is welcome, of course. We never refused to engage with them.”

He also noted that Moscow values the efforts of non-European actors, such as BRICS nations, in promoting peace: “Not only Europeans but other countries as well have the right to participate, and we respect that.”

Military and trade relations with the US

Putin responded positively to Trump’s proposal to cut defense spending, indicating Moscow’s openness to negotiations: “We are not against it. The idea is good: the US cuts by 50%, we cut by 50%, and if China wants, they can join later.”

Commenting on US trade policies, Putin criticized American sanctions but acknowledged that each country sets its own trade priorities: “For many years, US trade policy has been tied to sanctions. We consider these sanctions illegal and harmful to global trade.”

Regarding Trump’s shift toward tariffs, Putin said he understood the reasoning behind the move: “Each country determines independently what is beneficial… I can understand the logic – to move production back home, create jobs, force taxes to be paid… But at some point, of course, these actions will encounter certain difficulties associated with inflationary pressure.”

Putin also confirmed that “some Russian and American companies are in contact and discussing major projects” but did not specify details.

* * *

As for Europe’s newly touted ‘rival’ rare earths deal being discussed with Ukrainian leadership, some observers might see this as yet another attempt of Washington’s European allies to sabotage Trump’s maneuvering toward peace. Critics have said Trump is essentially forcing Ukraine to give up its future economic sovereignty. But Trump has said the US must be paid back for the many billions in weapons sent throughout the war.

Under the Biden-Harris administration, farmers were forced to cull tens of millions of egg-laying hens to contain the bird flu outbreak. As a direct result, the nation’s total egg-laying flock has plunged to its lowest level in nearly a decade, driving wholesale egg prices to record highs.

Trump stated this week that Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins will take action on soaring egg prices, adding, “We inherited all the problems.”

Trump is correct in saying the egg-flation mess was “inherited,” as the latest Bloomberg data shows that the nation’s egg-laying hen population fell to its lowest level since 2016 last month. This decline was driven by farmers being forced to cull flocks under Biden’s first term to curb the bird flu outbreak. 

“It was important to me to see firsthand an egg-laying farm facility implementing strong biosecurity measures. We have a lot of work to do as we combat avian flu, help our poultry industry recover, and bring the price of eggs down for all Americans. More coming mid-week on this,” Rollins wrote on X on Monday. 

It was important to me to see firsthand an egg laying farm facility implementing strong biosecurity measures. We have a lot of work to do as we combat avian flu, help our poultry industry recover, and bring the price of eggs down for all Americans. More coming mid-week on this.… pic.twitter.com/rB699lGYoM

— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) February 24, 2025

Monday’s print of the Urner Barry Egg Index EBP shows wholesale prices jumped to $7.56, a new record high. Since late Decemeber, wholesale prices have jumped to new record highs by the week, with reports of egg shortages nationwide.  

We advised readers at the start of the month:

Time To Build Backyard Chicken Coop As Wholesale Egg Prices Hit New Record Highs https://t.co/nJiB1tYvNO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 4, 2025

According to the USDA’s bird flu dashboard, 19 million birds across the Lower 48 have been infected by avian influenza over the last 30 days.

It’s time to set up those chicken coops, folks.

Panic searching on Google.

And don’t forget honeybees and victory gardens—become self-sufficient and take back control of your own food supply chain instead of relying on mega-corporations that poison food with toxic seed oils and other chemicals in processed foods.

In a wide-ranging new interview with Russia 1 TV, President Vladimir Putin touted that his country is in talks with the United States over cooperating on “major” joint economic projects.

The Monday remarks came two weeks following his first phone call with President Trump after the US leader took office for the second time. “Some Russian and American companies are in contact and discussing major projects,” Putin said.

This is being confirmed by the US side as well, given Trump in a Truth Social post also revealed that major “economic development transactions which will take place between the US and Russia” are in the works. He said that ongoing discussions are “proceeding very well” — coming off last week’s bilateral Riyadh talks led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia’s Sergey Lavrov.

Putin has also this week been taking steps to make Russia an inviting place for US companies to operate once again, after well over 1,000 of them have curtailed or closed up operations in the wake of the Ukraine war’s start.

“For many years, US trade policy has been tied to sanctions. We consider these sanctions illegal and harmful to global trade,” Putin described said in the interview.

As for which areas the US and Russia might cooperate on, Putin didn’t detail the talks down the that level, but did tease that Russia is ready to work with “foreign partners” including companies on mining minerals.

That’s when he claimed in the interview that we [Russia] “undoubtedly have, I want to emphasize, significantly more resources of this kind than Ukraine” and said: “We would be ready to offer this to our American partners… if they showed interest in working together.“

“As for the new territories, it’s the same. We are ready to attract foreign partners to the so-called new, to our historical territories, which have returned to the Russian Federation,” he added. This provocative statement appeared to reference the four annexed territories in Ukraine’s east: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.

Western media has described that this is an “eye-catching” move by the Russian leader:

He also suggested that Russia and the US could collaborate on aluminium production in Krasnoyarsk, in Siberia, where one Russian aluminium maker, Rusal, has its largest smelters.

The televised comments followed a cabinet meeting on Russia’s natural resources.

On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists the proposal opened up “quite broad prospects”, adding that the US needed rare earth minerals and Russia had “a lot of them”.

Offering the US access to minerals is an eye-catching move by Putin, given how much pride the Kremlin has taken in keeping Russia’s natural wealth in Russian hands. In 2023 Putin accused the West, particularly the US, of trying to “dismember” Russia to gain access to its natural resources.

We’ve certainly come a long way from the Biden administration goal of ‘weakening Russia’ – to use the words of former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

🇷🇺🇺🇸 Putin reveals that Russia and the U.S. could launch joint aluminum mining projects in Krasnoyarsk, requiring $15B in investment.

One of the past problems in Russia-U.S. relations? A lack of deep business ties—Moscow mostly traded with the EU. Now, the strategy seems clear:… pic.twitter.com/GeqMoFDFby

— Brian McDonald (@27khv) February 24, 2025

Meanwhile, as the White House aggressively pursues a final deal for access to Ukraine’s mineral deposits, including rare earths, Zelensky has appeared to resist.

Europe has at the same time offered its own alternative deal which Zelensky is likely to favor. Europe’s Commissioner for Industrial Strategy Stéphane Séjourné has said he’s pitching the rival plan to Kiev officials. “Twenty-one of the 30 critical materials Europe needs can be provided by Ukraine in a win-win partnership,” Séjourné said.

* * *

Below are more highlights from Putin’s Russia 1 interview, paraphrased and translated via Russian state media…

‘Rational’ Trump

Putin suggested that Trump sees Zelensky as an obstacle to stabilizing Ukraine and securing a peace deal: “Trump likely understands that Zelensky is a destabilizing factor. He wants to bring Ukrainians back together, consolidate its society, and create conditions for the survival of the Ukrainian state.”

Addressing claims that Trump’s position on Ukraine plays into Russia’s hands, Putin strongly disagreed: “In the current situation, strange as it may seem, we would be more interested in [Zelensky] sitting there and further corrupting the regime with which we are in an armed conflict. And from the point of view of strengthening Ukrainian statehood, it is necessary to act in a completely different direction – to bring to power those who will enjoy the trust of the people of Ukraine.”

The Russian president also commented on Trump’s political style, rejecting the notion that the US president acts based purely on emotion: “No, of course not. His actions are based on cold calculation and a rational approach to the situation.”

The role of Europe

Putin argued that European politicians are “shackled” by their past commitments and are unable to change their approach to Ukraine without losing credibility: “Unlike the newly elected US president, European leaders are tied to the current regime in Kiev. They are too invested and have made too many promises.”

He criticized Europe’s reaction to recent US-Russia diplomatic interactions, saying: “Their response was emotional and lacked practical meaning. Instead of addressing real issues, they focus on maintaining appearances.”

While dismissing demands by EU officials to have a say in Russia-US negotiations, Putin acknowledged that European involvement could be useful in broader discussions: “Their participation is welcome, of course. We never refused to engage with them.”

He also noted that Moscow values the efforts of non-European actors, such as BRICS nations, in promoting peace: “Not only Europeans but other countries as well have the right to participate, and we respect that.”

Military and trade relations with the US

Putin responded positively to Trump’s proposal to cut defense spending, indicating Moscow’s openness to negotiations: “We are not against it. The idea is good: the US cuts by 50%, we cut by 50%, and if China wants, they can join later.”

Commenting on US trade policies, Putin criticized American sanctions but acknowledged that each country sets its own trade priorities: “For many years, US trade policy has been tied to sanctions. We consider these sanctions illegal and harmful to global trade.”

Regarding Trump’s shift toward tariffs, Putin said he understood the reasoning behind the move: “Each country determines independently what is beneficial… I can understand the logic – to move production back home, create jobs, force taxes to be paid… But at some point, of course, these actions will encounter certain difficulties associated with inflationary pressure.”

Putin also confirmed that “some Russian and American companies are in contact and discussing major projects” but did not specify details.

* * *

As for Europe’s newly touted ‘rival’ rare earths deal being discussed with Ukrainian leadership, some observers might see this as yet another attempt of Washington’s European allies to sabotage Trump’s maneuvering toward peace. Critics have said Trump is essentially forcing Ukraine to give up its future economic sovereignty. But Trump has said the US must be paid back for the many billions in weapons sent throughout the war.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. As noted last week, correlations between all asset classes, whether international or emerging markets, gold or bitcoin, have all gone to one. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations justify illogic when too much money is chasing too few assets.

Therefore, it should not be surprising to see analysts ramping up estimates to rationalize or justify overvaluations in the market. The chart below shows earnings’ long-term growth. Notably, analysts expect a record deviation above earnings’ long-term exponential growth trend of $195/share and above the 6% peak-to-peak historical growth rate.

The peak-to-peak growth trend is crucial because it is the historical growth rate of nominal GDP. Given that corporate revenue, from which earnings are derived, comes from economic activity, the correlation is logical. There are times when earnings can grow much faster than the economy, such as when the economy emerges from a recession. However, over time, earnings growth returns to the long-term relationship.

By viewing the data above on a log scale, we see the same deviation above the long-term growth trend of earnings. (A log scale mitigates the impact of large numbers.) Whenever earnings have exceeded the 6% peak-to-peak growth trend historically, such have been near peaks in economic growth rates. The 2026 earnings estimates for $289/share are far above the long-term exponential growth trend of $195/share.

While such a deviation may be sustainable short-term, historically, adverse economic impacts, be it a recession or an event-driven outcome, have reverted earnings toward their long-term trend. Again, this is because earnings can not indefinitely outgrow the economy, given the relationship of economic activity to revenue generation.

The chart below shows Wall Street estimates’ current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. As stated, the current deviation is the most significant on record.

Questioning the accuracy of these estimates is prudent for investors, given the relationship between changes in earnings growth and market outcomes.

Manufacturing Estimates

As noted above, analysts are very optimistic about earnings growth into 2026. The current estimates are well above long-term trends, suggesting we will see earnings closer to $220/share vs $290.

Again, this is because earnings are a function of economic activity. Therefore, for earnings to match current estimates, expectations for economic growth must improve sharply. However, such seems unlikely given the impact of tariffs and reductions in government spending and employment. Therefore, it is far more likely that we will eventually see a sharp decrease in forward estimates.

The risk to investors is overpaying for assets today, assuming that forward estimates will prove correct, thereby reducing that overvaluation. However, earnings have failed to achieve previous estimates, pushing valuations sharply higher. Given the relationship between earnings and economic growth, the overvaluation investors are paying today has created a sharp deviation that will likely not correct itself via more substantial economic growth.

We see the same deviation between the annual rate of change of the S&P 500 versus actual reported earnings. As shown below, there was a sharp expansion in the market’s price without an equally substantial increase in underlying earnings per share. Such resulted in a dramatic rise in multiple expansions over the last two years. Analysts must increase their “manufactured” estimates to justify those elevated valuations and catch up with the market’s price. However, it is more likely that the growth rate of equity prices will slow substantially to allow earnings to catch up with valuations.

Of course, one factor that has been essential in sustaining market prices despite consistent earnings underperformance to meet analysts’ estimates is buybacks.

Buybacks When You Need Them The Least

I have previously written much on corporate buybacks and why they are not a return of capital to shareholders but rather a benefit primarily obtained by insiders.

• 40% Of The Bull Market Is Due Solely To Buybacks

• Buffett On Buybacks

• Corporate Buybacks: A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing

Nonetheless, there is no denying the “heavy hand” they play in boosting asset prices and supporting reported earnings by lowering the denominator of the EPS (earnings divided by shares outstanding) calculation. As noted in our previous articles:

“The impact of buybacks extends beyond individual companies. Since 2000, net corporate buybacks have accounted for 100% of the equity market’s net asset purchases—a reflection of the diminished participation from pensions, mutual funds, and individual investors:”

• Pensions & Mutual Funds: –$2.7 trillion

• Households & Foreign Investors: +$2.4 trillion

• Corporations (Buybacks): +$5.5 trillion

• Net Flow: +$5.2 trillion

In other words, if you strip out share buybacks, asset prices would be roughly 40% lower than where they currently sit. Crucially, share buybacks and stock market returns have an extraordinarily high correlation.

This is essential as many believe corporations repurchase shares when the market undervalues them. However, the reality is quite the opposite. Corporations tend to be net buyers when asset prices rise and vacate that practice when shares fall. In other words, when the markets rise sharply, corporations execute buybacks when they are the least accretive. Such is because they use buybacks not to benefit shareholders but to:

• Prioritize short-term stock price gains over long-term investments.

• Signal a lack of business reinvestment opportunities—or a deliberate choice not to pursue them.

• Concentrate benefits among insiders and executives, tying compensation to stock performance.

As noted, companies repurchase shares at generally non-accretive prices, destroying capital from future productive investments.

Nonetheless, buybacks are expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2025 and likely increase by 2026. This is, of course, barring any event that dramatically slows economic growth or causes market repricing. If those buybacks are completed, they should continue providing a “bid” under stock prices, which could offset the forthcoming negative revisions to analysts’ overly optimistic earnings expectations.

Conclusion

Wall Street analysts’ overly optimistic assumptions are almost always likely to overshoot reality. As discussed, earnings tend to grow very close to their long-term trend, with overshoots and undershoots caused by macro-driven events like monetary and fiscal interventions or recessionary outcomes. This time is unlikely to be any different.

Given the current market exuberance, historical overvaluation concerns, and the reliance on buybacks to sustain prices, investors should consider hedging strategies to protect their portfolios.

1. Don’t forget fixed income to lower market-related volatility.

2. Don’t be afraid to increase cash levels when uncertain where to invest.

3. Focus on fundamentally strong companies with strong dividend histories.

4. Monitor corporate buybacks and economic indicators.

Since buybacks have played a crucial role in market stability, investors should monitor corporate buyback trends. Market volatility could increase if buybacks decline due to economic weakness or policy changes. Likewise, tracking macroeconomic indicators such as employment data, inflation trends, and GDP growth can provide early warning signals of a market shift.

By taking small actions within portfolios currently, investors can better navigate the risks associated with an unexpected rise in market volatility.

Or, you can shut your eyes and hope for the best.

*  *  *

For more in-depth analysis and actionable investment strategies, visit RealInvestmentAdvice.com. Stay ahead of the markets with expert insights tailored to help you achieve your financial goals.

Update (1210ET): In response to the report on secret ‘kink’ chat rooms within the US intelligence community, former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Gen. Mike Flynn (Ret.) warned: “There are massive amounts of sickening chat rooms and groups the USIC maintains and many on government unclassified and classified systems.“

What’s more – these groups, which as you can see below, were full of mentally ill trannies, and “people communicating with each other in their own little code words who are in opposition to the @realDonaldTrump administration,” Flynn continued, suggesting that they represent “a massive CI (counterintelligence) problem and they need to be immediately shut down.”

Flynn suggests that “decent CI people” investigate them “to determine if subversive behavior is occurring, and if so, prosecute those conducting it AND then expose them.”

There are massive amounts of sickening chat rooms and groups the USIC maintains and many on government unclassified and classified systems. In them are people communicating with each other in their own little code words who are in opposition to the @realDonaldTrump…

— General Mike Flynn (@GenFlynn) February 25, 2025

If @GenFlynn says shutting down these chat networks will eliminate a key element of organized counter-resistance, then I believe him! @elonmusk

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) February 25, 2025

*  *  *

Try Peak Focus + Mushroom 10x to boost clarity & focus, while reducing oxidative stress and inflammation.

New ZH Store Deal! Free bottle of Mushroom 10x with each bottle of Peak Focus purchased until 2/28/2025

*  *  *

While the left clutched pearls over one of Elon Musk’s DOGE employees who went by the name ‘Big Balls’ online a few years ago, they’ve been dead silent over a bombshell report from Chris Rufo revealing secret NSA “sex chats” that involved at least one CIA employee that go back two years – featuring discussions involving “sex, kink, polyamory, and castration.” And butthole zapping.

Both current and former NSA employees “provided chat logs from the NSA’s Intelink messaging program,” revealing all sorts of insane shit.

One popular chat topic was male-to-female transgender surgery, which involves surgically removing the penis and turning it into an artificial vagina. “[M]ine is everything,” said one male who claimed to have had gender reconstruction surgery. “[I]’ve found that i like being penetrated (never liked it before GRS), but all the rest is just as important as well.” Another intelligence official boasted that genital surgery allowed him “to wear leggings or bikinis without having to wear a gaff under it.”

These employees discussed hair removal, estrogen injections, and the experience of sexual pleasure post-castration. “[G]etting my butthole zapped by a laser was . . . shocking,” said one transgender-identifying intel employee who spent thousands on hair removal. “Look, I just enjoy helping other people experience boobs,” said another about estrogen treatments. “[O]ne of the weirdest things that gives me euphoria is when i pee, i don’t have to push anything down to make sure it aims right,” a Defense Intelligence Agency employee added. –City Journal

Yeah…

Oh my…

These trans employees discuss hair removal, estrogen treatments, and breast implants. “Getting my butthole zapped by a laser was . . . shocking,” said one trans-identifying DIA official. “Medical science is gonna give me tits one way or another,” said a Navy intel employee. pic.twitter.com/qXLtq0nk45

— Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️ (@realchrisrufo) February 24, 2025

Both the CIA and NSA have confirmed the authenticity of the report…

BREAKING: The CIA has released a statement on the trans sex chats, claiming it “will be taking immediate action on this matter.” pic.twitter.com/iK33aLidai

— Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️ (@realchrisrufo) February 25, 2025

BREAKING: An NSA spokesman has confirmed the authenticity of the secret sex chats and claims that the agency is taking administrative action against employees who “abused this system.”

This story is ongoing. More revelations coming tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/q822rMWjx6

— Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️ (@realchrisrufo) February 24, 2025

Reminder that the Biden CIA was actively recruiting people with mental illnesses https://t.co/YnIGjef2ay pic.twitter.com/nFkoeIT0T9

— Lomez (@L0m3z) February 25, 2025

What in the cinnamon toast fuck?

Well … at least we know what they did last week 🤣🤣 https://t.co/C6vZeUTGSg

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 25, 2025

Update:

Nobody:

NSA chat logs: https://t.co/pET6gaSO9m pic.twitter.com/tAzkpzmZO5

— Dixon Uranus (@RealDixonUranus) February 25, 2025

*  *  *

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

A leftist nutcase who posted a video on TikTok calling for Elon Musk to be assassinated, as well as for some reason admitting that she hasn’t filed her taxes for close to a decade, got a quick reply from acting US Attorney Ed Martin.

“I promised myself I would avoid the news,” the woman, who goes by the since deleted account username “sarahcroberts” blathered.

She added, “But obviously, I haven’t. Here’s my one thought – I have many thoughts – Elon Musk,” before doing the ‘cut throat’ gesture.

The clearly mentally disturbed woman continued, “Like when you do X him, and by X, I mean formally mean assassination and it’s a warning from the FBI is going to fucking show up, I don’t… arrest me.”

“You don’t have enough people to even investigate me at this point,” she then bizarrely stated, adding “I haven’t filed my taxes in like… eight years and yet no one’s come for me, so I’m going to fucking say it. Let’s assassinate some motherfuckers.”

Musk commented on the video shared by Libs Of TikTok on X, tagging the US Attorney.

Death threat and admission of multiple counts of tax fraud @EagleEdMartin

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 24, 2025

Martin immediately responded.

Duly noted. Thx for letting us know. We’ll put you in the system. Talk soon, M’am. #NoOneIsAboveTheLaw https://t.co/zCMohyeHML

— U.S. Attorney Ed Martin (@USAEdMartin) February 24, 2025

And that’s how you get yourself in deep deep do do in under a minute leftists.

How it started How it’s going pic.twitter.com/Ltw3zomBvj

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) February 24, 2025

👀

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) February 24, 2025

It’s the very definition of FAFO.

Good tip. Thank you, Senator

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) February 25, 2025

She’s really asking to be arrested. Okay then.

— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) February 24, 2025

Whatever comes next, she asked for it.

— Seth Dillon (@SethDillon) February 24, 2025

Translation: pic.twitter.com/Ty08GnYZYH

— Liberacrat™️ (@Liberacrat) February 24, 2025

These people have been so completely broken by shit-libery culture and years of leftist media propaganda.

Those eyes pic.twitter.com/HwAjyLJwnN

— Dunkie (@DunkieX) February 24, 2025

Don’t commit crime on tape is the first thing a criminal defense attorney will tell you.

These people are extra stupid.

— Matt Van Swol (@matt_vanswol) February 25, 2025

She’s going to find out for 5 years in federal prison for this. That’s a lock. pic.twitter.com/QnelSJYT8k

— W.R. Schock, QBD (@iontecs_pemf) February 25, 2025

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Bloomberg reported that Elon Musk’s SpaceX subsidiary, Starlink, is preparing to deploy terminals nationwide to upgrade the Federal Aviation Administration’s national airspace system. Musk responded to the report on X, indicating that the current ground-based internet, managed by Verizon, “is not working and so is putting air travelers at serious risk.” 

The Verizon system is not working and so is putting air travelers at serious risk

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 25, 2025

Here’s more from the report:

Musk approved a shipment of 4,000 Starlink terminals to the FAA last week for the initiative, said one of the people. One terminal has already been installed at the FAA’s air-traffic control technology lab in Atlantic City, New Jersey, for testing, the person said.

The person familiar with the matter said the program will be called TDM X. The goal is to have the entire program fully functional within 12 to 18 months.

An FAA spokesperson confirmed Bloomberg’s report, stating that the agency is testing one terminal in Atlantic City and two in Alaska. The military has used Starlink terminals at remote bases for the past few years.

Calls to upgrade the nation’s air traffic control system come weeks after Elon Musk, a special government employee in charge of DOGE, said his team will support the urgent need to make “rapid safety upgrades to the air traffic control system.” 

Trump has urged Congress to modernize the nation’s aging air traffic control system following last month’s midair collision between a Black Hawk helicopter and a regional jet near Ronald Reagan National Airport, which killed 67. 

Where was the Biden-Harris administration’s urgent push to upgrade the national airspace system?

We know why this wasn’t a priority—because DEI took center stage over the nation. 

Under the Biden-Harris regime, Starlink was banished from the rural federal program to connect America, primarily because of the Biden admin’s dislike of Musk. Now, Starlink has rolled out across Ukraine for cellular service, while T-Mobile in the US has the same service. 

Recall legacy telecoms AT&T and Verizon have used lawfare to slow down Starlink’s constellation building in low-Earth orbit. 

Last week, Goldman turned bullish on part suppliers for Starlink satellites…

Goldman Turns Bullish On Starlink Satellite Parts Supplier As Space Race Accelerates https://t.co/GyooFrcg0x

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 18, 2025

Starlink will continue to soar as the roadblocks the Biden admin put up have vanished. We suspect a Starlink IPO will occur during Trump’s second term.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

A negotiated settlement, land for peace is what I said in 2022. Terms now include mineral rights.

Lost in a Hobbesian World

Eurointelligence notes the EU is Lost in a Hobbesian World

For a European, being isolated is probably the worst thing that can ever happen to you. Not getting invited to the Munich Security Conference would be an unrecoverable career setback. When Emmanuel Macron invited a few selected leaders to a summit a couple of weeks ago, the big debating point amongst EU folk was, who was invited and who was not. It was not about what the meeting should accomplish. Sitting at a table is really important to Europeans.

This is all fine for as you are dealing with relatively unimportant things, like financial regulation. But this is not the mindset with which you want to fight a war. We have yet to meet a European with a worked-out strategy to defeat Vladimir Putin. We are red-liners. We argue from first principles. We claim that we will support Ukraine for however long it takes. This idea worked spectacularly well for the ECB in the fight against speculators. But it does not translate to wars. 

Ukraine has lost the war. We have no strategy to change this. Of all the nonsense Trump said and tweeted last week – and most of it was nonsense – he was correct on the essential issue – that the war is not winnable. He told us during his campaign that he wants to cut a deal.

The Europeans are in their unfortunate situation on the cats’ table of international diplomacy because they outsourced strategic thinking. The US acts, we react. Trump speaks. We are outraged. When Trump threatens tariffs, we threaten retaliation. Strategic thinking means making sacrifices, thinking ahead, factoring in what your opponent will do in response to your actions, have a strategy for second-best outcomes, and one for retreat and defeat.

In a world in which strategic thinking counts, the EU is hopelessly lost.

Delusions of Nonsense

CNN reports Zelensky says ready to quit if it brings peace, pushes back on US demand for Ukrainian minerals

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he was “ready” to resign as leader if it meant it would bring peace to his country, suggesting he could swap it for NATO membership – while also pushing back against US demands for Ukraine’s critical minerals and other natural resources as part of negotiations to end the war.

Asked at a press conference Sunday if he was ready to quit if it ensures peace for Ukraine, Zelensky said: “If (it guarantees) peace for Ukraine, if you really need me to resign, I am ready. I can exchange it for NATO.”

Earlier this month, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that Kyiv joining NATO was unrealistic, upending the alliance’s stated policy that Ukraine was on an “irreversible path” to membership.

The Ukrainian president’s remarks come amid an ongoing spat with US President Donald Trump, who has called Zelensky a “dictator” for not holding elections while Ukraine remains at war.

Zelensky on Sunday also pushed back against Trump’s demand for a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s deposits of rare earths and other minerals as part of a draft “deal” Trump said would reflect the amount of aid the US has provided to Ukraine during its war with Russia.

“I am not going to recognize $500 (billion),” Zelensky said during a press conference at a forum marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The US was one of Ukraine’s closest allies under the Biden administration, providing the country with tens of billions worth of military aid. But Trump has made it clear that he thinks the US should no longer send aid to Ukraine without getting anything in return.

Zelensky Pushes Back Against U.S. Mineral Deal and Announces European Summit

The New York Times reports Zelensky Pushes Back Against U.S. Mineral Deal and Announces European Summit

President Volodymyr Zelensky pushed back on Sunday against demands from the Trump administration for billions in Ukrainian natural resources and for holding peace talks that exclude Ukraine, while announcing plans for a major summit of European leaders on Monday.

Mr. Zelensky suggested that in assailing Ukraine, Mr. Trump had chosen the wrong adversary.

“If peace for Ukraine requires me to step down, I’m ready,” Mr. Zelensky said on the eve of the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. “Another scenario: I could trade my position for NATO membership, if that’s what it takes,” he added.

Mr. Zelensky has said he will not accept any agreement negotiated between the United States and Russia without Ukraine’s participation.

“This is how we see this negotiation table: Ukraine as part of Europe, Europe, the United States and Russia. That’s approximately how we envision it,” he said.

Mr. Zelensky has been advised by European allies to tone down his confrontation with the American president. But on Sunday, he did not back away from his earlier comments and repeated his assertion that Mr. Trump is living in a disinformation bubble.

Mr. Zelensky’s pushback on Sunday could further anger Mr. Trump, who is pressing for a minerals deal and a peace agreement on terms he wants to dictate.

“I am not signing something that 10 generations of Ukrainians will have to repay,” Mr. Zelensky said, noting that negotiations would continue. Drawing on Ukraine’s revenue from natural resources, he said, it might take 250 years to pay $500 billion, which he called an unrealistic sum.

On Friday, the United States proposed a new draft agreement, obtained by The New York Times, which still lacked security guarantees for Ukraine and included even tougher financial terms. The new draft reiterated a U.S. demand that Ukraine relinquish half of its revenues from natural resource extraction, including minerals, gas and oil, as well as earnings from ports and other infrastructure.

Under the proposed terms, those revenues would be directed to a fund in which the United States would hold 100 percent financial interest, and Ukraine should contribute to the fund until it reaches $500 billion. That sum is more than twice the value of Ukraine’s economic output in 2021, before the war.

The agreement does not commit the United States to security guarantees for Ukraine, or promise further military support for Kyiv. The word “security” was even deleted from a formulation contained in a previous version of the deal, dated Feb. 14 and reviewed by The Times, which stated that both countries aimed to achieve “lasting peace and security in Ukraine.”

No, Yes, No, then Nonsense

Zelensky said no to a deal for minerals, then reportedly yes, then no again, and now nonsense about stepping down if the US will let Ukraine in NATO.

Heck, not even the EU wants Ukraine in NATO or the EU now because of the dollar commitment it would take.

And where is the EU going to get troops or weapons.

The EU announces a conference, fails to invite Trump, but Trump likely would not have gone anyway.

No Position to Make Demands

Neither the EU nor Zelensky is in a position to make demands. If Ukraine won’t give Trump mineral rights, perhaps Putin would.

The US will not let Ukraine in NATO, nor will Russia, and despite EU talk, the EU is not ready for that either.

Zelensky is driving for a bargain that neither the US nor Russia would accept.

When Zelensky pushed back, the terms offered by Trump got worse.

Questions of the Day

Q: Will the EU send troops?
A: No

Q: Will the EU give Ukraine enough weapons if the US drops support?
A: No

Q: Will the EU help rebuild Ukraine?
A: Perhaps a pittance

Q: Is there any point to a summit without Trump?
A: No

The EU wants to be at the table. Trump will make fun of table the EU set.

Negotiated Settlement

September 7, 2022: Q&A on Putin and Energy Price Caps, Does Anyone Have a Better Idea?

Two Good Ideas

• End the sanctions. 
• Prepare for a negotiated settlement whether Ukraine likes it or not.

Instead, we are doing the opposite, compete with people suggesting there are no batter things to do than something that is downright asinine.

November 7, 2023: If the US Has a Goal in Ukraine or Israel, What the Hell Is It?

The US has already given Ukraine $75 billion. Biden wants another $100 billion for Ukraine and Israel. What exactly is the mission?

November 20, 2023: Is a NATO Backing a Negotiated Deal Between Ukraine and Russia?

What’s Guaranteed to Happen?

I have written about this many times before. There is going to be a negotiated settlement that is not going to fully please anyone.

When? It will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.

February 16, 2025: Why is Trump Leading the Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Without the EU?

Because 1) no one else has a plan, 2) Trump’s plan is likely to work, 3) the EU would screw it up.

The Goal and a Mission

Like it or not, we now have a goal and a mission. They are one and the same, end the war.

The war will end as I repeatedly stated since 2022, a negotiated settlement.

You can agree or disagree with Trump’s approach or the appeasement of Putin. But you cannot change the facts.

The longer Zelensky holds out the more territory Ukraine will lose.

On the heels of UMich sentiment survey slump, The Conference Board consumer confidence survey saw a big drop in attitudes with the headline tumbling from 105.3 (revised higher) to 98.3 (below the 102.5 exp) – the lowest since June 2024, hovering at the low end of its range since 2022.

A measure of expectations for the next six months also fell by the most in three-and-a-half years, while a gauge of present conditions declined more modestly.

Source: Bloomberg

“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

“This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current labor market conditions weakened. 

Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.”

Labor market conditions worsened for the second straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

And also echoing the UMich data, The Conference Board saw inflation expectations skyrocket…

Source: Bloomberg

Guichard added:

“Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs. References to inflation and prices in general continue to rank high in write-in responses, but the focus shifted towards other topics. There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019. Most notably, comments on the current Administration and its policies dominated the responses.”

Finally, the proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months increased to a nine-month high. Consumers’ bullishness about the stock market also retreated: only 46.8% of consumers expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead—the smallest share since April 2024, and down from 54.2% in January.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

We need a geopolitical AND data calendar

A kind request to Bloomberg and other global assemblers of the weekly data calendars around which so many in markets still pivot: can we please get a geopolitical addition rather than just the numbers and the option of the warbling of endless central bankers? Right now, what political leaders say, especially when they meet, matters far more for markets than a run of the mill number or “jazz hands, yada yada yada” from an expert on monetary policy.

Yesterday, on its third anniversary, the US voted against a resolution at the UN blaming Russia for starting the Ukraine War. Obviously, that’s a slap in the face for Ukraine and Europe, who in the latest White House foreign policy pivot have been left clinging to the fuselage of a departing Airforce One like Afghanis on the runway at Bagram Airbase.

🇺🇸 In another sign of US President Donald #Trump‘s shift away from Ukraine and its European allies, the US pushed through its own #SecurityCouncil resolution not framing #Russia 🇷🇺 as the aggressor in its invasion of #Ukraine 🇺🇦

More here 🔗➡️ https://t.co/tmn564r7Lu pic.twitter.com/hghSopM4Jq

— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) February 25, 2025

President Macron visited President Trump, where we heard that a push for a peace deal with Russia is on; and Trump said he’d like it in the economic sphere too. Russia then floated that it might mean rare earths and aluminium. Trump added President Putin has agreed to allow European peacekeepers into Ukraine, which Macron said he would send – if not to the front line.

Turkey backed Ukraine’s NATO membership. That’s a very powerful lever behind that cause, but Europe keeps failing to find the second-largest military power in NATO on a map or in any of its discussions.

Moreover, the US is reportedly close to an economic deal with Ukraine which will guarantee it as “free, sovereign, and secure.” This can be seen as predatory from the US side. It’s also the inverse of the ‘invade, then throw hundreds of billions at a country while failing to generate any profit from its resources, then get kicked out’ strategy employed in Afghanistan. It at least appears to cement US economic interests in keeping Ukraine viable despite apparent Russian appetites.

Next German Chancellor Merz, who stated, “Europe may need its own military alliance instead of NATO,” is discussing using the outgoing Bundestag to change the constitution to lift the country’s debt brake, unleashing €200bn in extra defence spending – which would cover a year of two of what would be needed. All Germany, and Europe, would then need to do would be to find the resources to match, including up to 300,000 young men and women prepared to serve at a time when there are fewer and fewer of them, and opinion polls show even fewer patriotic ones.

The US is reportedly considering merging its Pentagon Africa Command into Europe, effectively showing it no longer has the same global focus. For those who haven’t noticed, Africa is right next to Europe, not the Americas. That said, some areas far from it remain key.

US sanctions are back on vs. Iran’s shadow fleet, and this time they mean to enforce them vigorously: thus, the need for more Russian oil(?)

In geoeconomics, there was more will-he-won’t-he news on US Canada and Mexico tariffs: Trump said they are proceeding at 25% from 4 March as a US official said talks are ongoing, and Mexico said it’s studying new China tariffs. Reciprocal US tariffs begin early April regardless, for Canada, Mexico, Europe, and everyone, it seems.

The Trump admin is reported to want to tighten Biden-era chip controls on China and have held meetings with the key Japanese and Dutch firms involved, underlining that there is also going to be greater pressure to align with the US on this issue.

Senior Atlantic Council fellow @andrewmichta opines: “I’ve been thinking about what the return to the basics of state power means today. We are re-learning the basics about what military power is about… Perhaps we also misread what constitutes a working economy… In a world of state-on-state competition and war you need to be able to “make things” – manufacture. Every place I look I see signs of our civilisational decline that has been brought about by our elites’ post-Cold War arrogance about the “end of history” and “unipolar moment” – that bred ignorance about the fundamentals about geopolitics and geoeconomics.”

I summarized this back in November with one question: “What is GDP *for*?” And if you still aren’t asking that, then you aren’t going to be accurate in forecasting what GDP is going to *be*.

Put this together and we are still in our 2025 global outlook title of ‘The Year of Living Dangerously’: we have a stackable series of binary geopolitical scenarios with starkly different economic and market implications.

• Do we get a Ukraine peace deal or not? On whose terms – the West or Russia’s?
• Does the US de facto walk away from NATO or not?
• Does Europe rearm or not (even if the US does)?
• Do we get US tariffs vs everyone, so America Alone, or vs. some not others?
• Do we get a Monroe Doctrine US grand strategy base, or a break-up of the USMCA?
• Does Europe work with the US vs China, or look to Beijing and end up outside the US sphere?
• If the US and Europe rearm and jointly tariff China, then the key binaries are: if this stays in the economic realm or becomes geopolitical; if the economics involves a much weaker CNY or not; and/or if it involves the supply chains which the US and Europe still rely on for now.

One can see the room for massive volatility ahead – and how little most central bankers have to do with it except in their reaction function. (We certainly aren’t going to get any prediction from them. Indeed, the Fed’s Goolsbee just downplayed the leap to a 30-year high in US long-term inflation expectations, saying this doesn’t count unless it’s repeated for another few months, a time-period which will capture one of the binary tariff outcomes above. Visionary stuff well worth the big bucks.)

Meanwhile, Bloomberg says ‘China’s Repo Market Hit Hard as Yuan Defense Sparks Cash Squeeze.’ So, the PBOC trying to keep its currency stable vs the dollar as tariff fears rise is now draining local liquidity, hitting the economy. And that’s just with the Fed on hold, or grimly holding on, rather than talking hikes, and not (yet) looking at a how-to guides on geopolitics or geoeconomics. If/when it were to…