Zerohedge

Duquesne Family Office Chairman Stanley Druckenmiller told CNBC last month that “animal spirits” have returned to the market, driven by “giddy” CEOs anticipating Trump’s return to the White House. His comments coincide with a new 13F filing revealing some big airline stock bets.

Last quarter, George Soros’ former money manager piled into airline stocks, including United Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines. 

Druckenmiller’s investment firm disclosed 21 new positions in stocks including United Airlines, American Airline and Delta Air in the final quarter of 2024. United Airlines was his largest new buy, consisting of 2.8% of his overall portfolio. The purchases come as the hedge fund reduced its stake in the technology sector by 5.3%. -Bloomberg

Druckenmiller’s bullish airline bets come as the global aviation sector is forecasted to expand this year, according to a new BloombergNEF report: 

The global aviation sector will continue to expand in the foreseeable future, thanks to rising population, higher income per capita across geographies and continuous economic development between regions. The growing appetite for air travel will drive up the sector’s fuel use. 

Implied jet fuel demand worldwide has remained above average in the last four years. 

Domestic flights are accelerating in the second half of February. 

According to figures released by the Transport Security Administration (TSA), airport checkpoint data remains above a four-year average for this time of year as spring flying season nears. 

While the S&P 500 continues to reach record highs, driven by AI and ‘Powering Up America’ themes, airline stocks remain major laggards—but not overlooked by Druckenmiller. If Trump can beat Biden-Harris regime’s inflation storm, stabilize geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and restore economic certainty, airlines might be ready for a smooth takeoff. 

The question remains: When will the prospect of supersonic travel reignite investor interest in airline stocks?

It’s coming. Theme to watch… 

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Even shrugging off three-plus weeks of shocking headlines, some in markets must surely wake up today “And just like that…” realize the world around them has changed dramatically. We no longer live in a market dream Manhattan with glamour, lunches, petty insults, and expensive shoes. Rather, we are in a reality with clamor, golf games, petty insults, and expensive jackboots.

President Trump has called President Zelenskyy a corrupt “dictator” who ‘started the Ukraine War,’ warning he must make a deal while he ‘still has a country left.’ That sounded like Kremlin terminology to many European ears. Yet the US walking away from Ukraine without them even being at the table is no shock historically: does one not recall the fate of the Afghan government? Or President Mubarak? Or the South Vietnamese?

pic.twitter.com/PMcrOwXejI

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 19, 2025

In response, Europe is assembling a crisis group of the EU, except Slovakia and Hungary, and everyone in NATO, except those two… and the US. This leads some to wonder if NATO can hold together. Yet without it, what can the others do? Even as the UK and France float air support for Ukraine, bringing them close to confrontation with Russia, that still requires US logistics: some ‘Great Power’ and ‘strategic autonomy’. Where next if the US defence umbrella which markets have been able to lunch and golf under since 1945/1991 folds?

That question is also aimed at the EU. As Professor of European Studies @stefanauer_hku warns:

“EUrope is finished. And it’s not just that France and Germany might no longer find it possible to work together (as @BecirovicMuamer points out). There will be conflicts between those countries who continue seeking security from the US (e.g., Poland) and those who won’t.”

Making his point, the Financial Times says European bond yields are rising and curves steepening on the prospect of that higher defence spending, i.e., Denmark just raised its arms spending by a massive 70%; as Ireland’s finance minister, the president of the group of Eurozone finance ministers, states the EU should stick to its spending rules rather than increasing defence investment – and who knows more about defence spending than… Ireland?

Beyond the fiscal side, unless one boosts industrial production in tandem, which involves “What is GDP *for*?” choices, then higher defence spending just sucks in imports – and of whose weapons, if Europe and the UK don’t make them, and the US is seen as unreliable?  

This isn’t solely an EU issue: China just sailed a warship 150 nautical miles from Sydney, showing its new power projection. Australians may tell themselves that it was just scouting for beach-side property in the eastern suburbs, but that is not much comfort. The jobs numbers today Down Under (+44K vs. +20K consensus) may have been good enough to keep the RBA on hold after their recent cut, but it’s no longer the major focus in Canberra, one might think.

Indeed, the Washington Post reports Defence Secretary Hegseth has ordered 8% Pentagon budget cuts for each of the next FIVE years, which would almost halve current spending. Even addressing layers of fat and invoice-padding, it seems everywhere but the Indo-Pacific region is expendable. Of course, Congress may not agree, but if it does, many will be asking who has their back. One would assume the long end of curves will go back up to reflect that defence spending and uncertainty.

In what would otherwise be headline news, Elon Musk has floated sending $5,000 checks to each American from apparent DOGE savings, as Trump said he favoured sharing 20% of the total saved. Of course, this is all past (mis?)spending and that would just bring the US deficit back again.

Undeterred, Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated a White House goal is to remove the IRS, as Trump backs the House budget bill that includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts: note the 100% expensing for new US factories, the 15% for anything made in America, and lower taxes on oil producers in an attempt to drive energy prices down further.

And that’s as President Putin floats an energy summit between himself, the US, and Saudi Arabia, who together control 40% of the world’s oil, following on from the US and Russia already suggesting that they may develop Arctic oil together.

Failing to make any impact was a headline in The New York Times saying Trump wants a new, better trade deal with China. Don’t we all? That certainly runs entirely counter to the massive tariffs that are coming in around five weeks – unless markets think that the president who can do all of the above isn’t serious about tariffs “because markets”.

An early leak of Europe’s Clean New Industrial Deal is also a U-turn from neoliberalism. In short, it argues for “made-in-EU” quotas for both the public and private sectors and carbon product labels — economic statecraft non-tariff barrier local content rules– to make 40% of clean tech in Europe rather than buying it from China. Furthermore, to bring down energy costs the plan is to cut energy taxes and use the European Investment Bank to lend vast sums for new grid and LNG plants, etc. –economic statecraft subsidies and/or off-book quasi-fiscal spending– and an “EU critical raw material centre” to “jointly purchase raw materials” for groups of companies – economic statecraft market intervention. Naturally, this means more zero-sum global trade policy.

Summarising things, the Financial Times has an op-ed bewailing “Who will stabilize the global economy?” It points out a century ago the rising US giant, then still number two to the wounded post-WW1 British Empire, was a mercantilist rather than a stabilising force. We know how that ended in 1929, the 1930s, and the 1940s. Today, the US is going back down that path in response to a mercantilist China which never tried to go anywhere else – and so nobody is going to stabilise the global economy.

The latest Fed minutes discussed the possible effects of changes in US trade and immigration policy, as well as differentiating between the temporary and the persistent inflation impacts. Frankly, they haven’t got a clue about that, or any of the above news. Indeed, it’s unfair to expect them to –our contemporary central bankers are just not cut from that kind of intellectual cloth– and a few Fed members might even be looking at the treatment of Zelenskyy and feeling nervous.

For now, US rates are clearly on hold, following which the Fed will say “And just like that…” and…

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

The wailing sound you heard last Thursday was the chorus of the Beltway warmongers shrieking in despair at President Trump’s suggestion that there was no reason for the United States to be spending one trillion dollars on “defense.”

“…[O]ne of the first meetings I want to have is with President Xi of China and President Putin of Russia, and I want to say let’s cut our military budget in half. And we can do that, and I think we’ll be able to do that,” the President told reporters.

With this statement, President Trump blew up one of the biggest myths of our time, particularly among Republicans, that spending more on the military is essential to keeping us safe. There is a vast and well-funded network of political and industrial interests that depend on maintaining that myth, from the weapons manufacturers to the mainstream media to the think tanks and beyond. Why? Because most of what is called “defense spending” has little to do with defending this country and a lot to do with enriching the politically well-connected.

Maintaining that global military empire has bankrupted the United States while making us less safe and less free. President Trump seems to understand this. But the military-industrial complex and its cheerleaders have for decades pushed the idea that we could not survive without continuously increasing their budgets.

Thanks to the work of the “Department of Government Efficiency” we are learning that much of what has been sold as “essential spending” is nothing of the sort. Take USAID, for example. We were led to believe that this agency was feeding the poor while promoting the best kind of American values overseas. Thanks to DOGE, we learned that the money was going to absurdities like funding transgender puppet shows in Peru.

We are also learning that a great deal of USAID money was going to actually overthrow democratic governments overseas – as well as manipulate foreign media and promote censorship of “dissident” voices at home and abroad. Not only was USAID not helping countries overseas – it was actually harming them!

Just as with USAID, when we are able to see just where that one trillion military budget is going Americans are going to fully realize that they have been lied to for decades. That is why we need a full audit of the Pentagon and full transparency of the results.

We also need a change in policy. Americans are beginning to understand the economic costs of maintaining a global military empire. US taxpayers are forced to cover more than half of the entire NATO budget while European countries rattle sabers at Russia and threaten war. If Europe feels so threatened by Russia, why don’t they cover the costs of their own defense? Why do poor Americans have to pay for the defense of rich Europeans? Haven’t we had enough of this?

I very much hope that President Trump follows through with his plan to drastically reduce our bloated military budget. We can start by closing the hundreds of military bases overseas, bringing back our troops from foreign countries, and eliminating our massive commitments to NATO and other international organizations.

We will be richer, safer, and happier.

Oil extended a string of small gains as uncertainty over global supplies lingered, offsetting API’s report of another increase in US crude stockpiles.

Crude has risen this week on the prospect that supplies may tighten as oil flows through a key Kazakh pipeline were reduced and as OPEC+ considers whether to push back a planned production increase.

“Prices will likely remain rangebound, continuing to move with headlines,” Royal Bank of Canada analysts including Brian Leisen wrote in a note, adding that “as more time passes without the market realizing a substantial catalyst,” traders will tend to position themselves closer to average prices.

So all eyes are on the official data this morning for confirmation of the inventory rise.

API

• Crude +3.34mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline +2.8mm

• Distillates -2.7mm

DOE

• Crude +4.63mm (+2.16mm exp)

• Cushing +1.47mm

• Gasoline -151k

• Distillates -2.05mm

Crude stocks rose more than expected last week – the fourth straight weekly build – as Distillates inventories drew down again but the official Gasoline stocks shift was de minimus…

Source: Bloomberg

For the first time since Nov 2023, there was no addition to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve…

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production inched higher…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering up near the high of the day around $73 ahead of the print and is holding the gains for now…

Trading has calmed after a tumultuous start to the year, with prices locked in a narrow range this month as the market becomes increasingly numb to the array of changes that US President Donald Trump is seeking to implement.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Wednesday that President Trump’s goal is to abolish the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

“Think about it, Donald Trump announces the External Revenue Service, and his goal is very simple (…) his goal is to abolish the Internal Revenue Service and let all the outsiders pay,” Lutnick told Fox News host Jesse Watters.

Lutnick: Donald Trump announced the external revenue service, and his goal is simple: to abolish the internal revenue service and let all the outsiders pay. pic.twitter.com/k8KIUS8evR

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 20, 2025

Trump has said that the External Revenue Service will force foreign trade partners to “finally pay their fair share,” and has previously floated the idea of abolishing federal income taxes as part of his plans for “tariffing and taxing foreign nations to enrich our citizens.”

Lutnick also said that Elon Musk and DOGE were “going to cut” $1 trillion, “and then we’re going to get rid of all these tax scams that hammer against America, and we’re going to raise a trillion dollars of revenue.“

The IRS is responsible for collecting the federal taxes from individuals and corporations – taking in some $823 billion in individual taxes in 2024, roughly 52% of total revenue, according to the Treasury Department.

Lutnick’s remarks come as the IRS is reportedly looking to lay off thousands of workers. According to the Associated Press, the agency will start by letting go roughly 7,000 probationary workers in Washington and around the country. Those with roughly one year or less of service at the agency – largely in compliance departments – will be affected, according to the report.

The layoffs are part of the Trump administration’s intensified efforts to shrink the size of the federal workforce through the Department of Government Efficiency by ordering agencies to lay off nearly all probationary employees who have not yet gained civil service protection. They come despite IRS employees involved in the 2025 tax season being told earlier this month that they would not be allowed to accept a buyout offer from the Trump administration until mid-May, after the taxpayer filing deadline.

It’s unclear how the layoffs may affect tax collection services this year. As the nation’s revenue collector, the IRS was tasked during the Biden administration with targeting high-wealth tax evaders for an additional stream of income to the U.S., which is $36 trillion in debt. By the end of 2024, the IRS collected over $1.3 billion in back taxes from rich tax dodgers. -AP

On Wednesday, the NY Times reported that the IRS would begin laying off roughly 6,000 employees on Thursday, and will target ‘relatively recent hires which the Biden administration had attempted to revitalize with a surge of funding and new staff.’ According to that report, IRS managers on Wednesday began asking their employees to bring their government-issued equipment to the office.

“Under an executive order, I.R.S. has been directed to terminate probationary employees who were not deemed critical to filing season,” one email reads. “We don’t have many details that we are permitted to share, but this is all tied to compliance with the executive order.”

According to former IRS official Dave Kautter, “There’s a flood of résumés from people at the I.R.S. looking for jobs throughout the tax community,” adding “Law firms are getting a fair number of résumés, accounting firms are getting a fair number of résumés.”

The IRS employs roughly 90,000 people across the country.

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

It is more than just a hockey game.

On Feb. 20, the National Hockey League’s best American players will face off against its best Canadian players once again in the championship bout of the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. It is round two of a rivalry match nearly a decade overdue, colliding national politics with sport on a level that has American fans reminiscing about their 1980 Miracle on Ice victory against the Soviet Union.

The Canadians, meanwhile, whose national identity is directly tied to hockey, appeared to indicate the feelings around this series are mutual by booing the U.S. national anthem during their first match of the tournament on Feb. 15 in Montreal.

Now, anthem booing started before the 4 Nations tournament, occurring as far back as the weekend of Feb. 1 at the start of NHL games in Ottawa, Calgary, and Vancouver. The U.S. anthem was also booed at the start of NBA games, with the Toronto Raptors hosting the Los Angeles Clippers and then the New York Knicks.

However, this booing ensued despite Bell Centre requesting that all fans show respect to both anthems, and it was followed by Team USA starting three fights in the first nine seconds of play.

While it was widely reported and assumed that the fights were directly related to the disrespect, brothers Brady and Matthew Tkachuk, and JT Miller revealed that they were already planning to start the game off with fights in a group chat.

However, Team USA’s general manager, Bill Guerin, didn’t rule out the current political climate as inspiration for the physicality when he appeared on Fox’s “America’s Newsroom” on Feb. 17.

“I think a little bit of everything. Canada-U.S. is a huge rivalry in hockey,” he said. “I think there was a little bit of a political flare to it. It’s just the time that we’re in. I think our guys used that as inspiration. If you let it get the better of you, then you’re in trouble. But I really do think the players used it as inspiration.”

The rivalry has lacked intensity of late, since the last time NHL players had international best-on-best games was the 2016 World Cup of Hockey in Toronto. Team USA played Canada in the 2022 and 2018 Winter Olympics, but NHL players didn’t participate.

Why are Canadians disrespecting the U.S. anthem? It is most likely due to President Donald Trump, who, in the early days of his second presidency, threatened Canada with tariffs and expressed his desire to make Canada the 51st state.

“You will turn a loyal friend into a resentful neighbor, forced to match tariff with tariff and to seek friends everywhere else,” Canadian Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre warned the U.S. during a Canada-First rally on Feb. 15, promising his audience, “Let me be clear: We will never be the 51st state.”

In response to the tariff threat, Canadians have also recently threatened to boycott American products, as well as visiting states like Florida.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dismissed the threats on Feb. 19, saying on X, “We frequently hear about different threats to boycott Florida, and yet our tourism numbers continue to grow year after year. …  I doubt this time will be any different.”

Canada scored the first goal of the game on Feb. 15, but the United States went on to win 3-1, with crushing hits to national heroes like Sydney Crosby and Connor McDavid in the process. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in attendance.

The game ended Canada’s 17-game win streak in best-on-best play against the United States as well as its 26-game win streak with Crosby on the roster.

“We needed to send a message,” Matthew Tkachuk said of the fights and win to the Associated Press. “The message we wanted to send is ‘It’s our time.’”

His brother Brady mentioned before the game that he was excited to play the villain role, and his teammates echoed that sentiment.

“We’re kind of the bad guys, it’s a fun role to play,” defenseman Noah Hanifin said. “I know the environment tomorrow is going to be probably the most intense I’ve ever been a part of. So it’s these moments you dream of and it’s exciting to be a part of it. It’s stuff that you’ll take with you the rest of your life.”

This was set up to be an exhibition all-star tournament midway through the season. It is not recognized by the International Ice Hockey Federation, the International Olympic Committee, or any international sporting authority.

Yet, the privilege to represent one’s country has these guys driving full speed, a stark contrast to traditional all-star events.

“It’s kind of like a Game 7,” McDavid said. “A lot of guys in this room have been in that situation before. Got to get a win.”

The NHL confirmed that more than 10 million people across North America tuned in to watch the game on Feb. 15, and more are expected to tune in on Feb. 20 as the action highlights spread.

One of those viewers could be Trump, as Guerin told Fox News that the president was welcomed.

“We would love it if President Trump was in attendance. We have a room full of proud American players and coaches and staff,” he said. “And listen, we’re just trying to represent our country the best way we can.”

Come Friday, the regular season will resume. Many American players will return to Canadian teams, including Austin Matthews, Team USA’s captain, who will resume his role as captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Likewise, Canadian players will return to the United States, including Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and head coach Jon Cooper, who will all go back to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

But until then, sports fans have one more night of nation-first hockey.

Retired US Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, is in Kiev where on Thursday he had an (apparently) brief meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

A scheduled post-meeting news conference has been unexpectedly canceled, though no reason was immediately forthcoming, according to a Ukrainian official, presidential spokesman Serhii Nikiforov. The US side made no comment upon the presser’s cancelation.

The Associated Press observes, “When the meeting began, photographers and video journalists were allowed into a room where the two men shook hands before sitting across from each other at a table at the presidential office in Kyiv.”

What’s the latest in the growing feud that let up to this?

President Trump on Wednesday night continued bashing Ukraine’s Zelensky, this time describing that his officials treated Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent “rudely” during his visit to Kiev last week.

Trump further said that Zelensky chose to sleep instead of meeting with the high-ranking American official to discuss the White House proposed mineral rights deal. “Zelensky was sleeping and unavailable to meet him,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.

The Treasury Secretary had “traveled many hours on the train, which is a dangerous trip,” Trump added, characterizing the whole visit as futile given the Ukrainians “told him ‘no'” on the deal for America to acquire 50% of the country’s rare earth minerals.

Trump’s anti-Zelensky rhetoric, which included him calling him a “dictator” yesterday, has grown to the point that many pundits see that the Ukrainian president’s exit is nigh. Trump is pressuring Kiev for new elections, which would require parliament to change the constitution.

Vice President J.D. Vance also warned Wednesday that Zelensky will only bring harm on himself should be continue ‘badmouthing’ President Trump. This was in reference to Zelensky asserting that Trump is living in a Russian “disinformation space” 

Vance’s warnings were conveyed in an interview published in the Daily Mail:

“The idea that Zelensky is going to change the president’s mind by badmouthing him in public media, everyone who knows the president will tell you that is an atrocious way to deal with this administration,” Vance said. 

“We obviously love the Ukrainian people,” but “we obviously think that this war needs to come to a rapid close,” he added. 

And Vance followed with a reminder: “That is the policy of the president of the United States. It is not based on Russian disinformation.”

Elon Musk has defended the Trump admin’s fierce critique of Zelensky. For example, Musk had tweeted out the following list by prominent pro-Trump account @DC_Draino: 

Want to know why Trump called Zelensky a Dictator? Here are the FACTS:

• He’s in year 6 of his 5 year term
• Declared martial law Feb 2022 and has banned elections since then
• Banned 11 political parties
• Passed law in 2022 to censor journalists and combined all news into one gov’t station
• Journalists investigating his corruption get conscripted and thrown on the front lines to die

The list ended with the observation that “Even Saddam Hussein held elections!” We should add to this list the ongoing persecution of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church by the Zelensky government, merely because it maintains spiritual communion with the Moscow Patriarchate.

Must watch. The truth about the Ukraine persecution of the canonical Church. https://t.co/4xpUyxSfKL

— Fr. Michael Lillie (@FrLillie) February 20, 2025

At this point, many pundits believe it’s only a matter of time before there’s a change in Ukraine’s government. European leaders are of course rallying around Zelensky, but the pressure and power of Washington is a different matter, and in essence Trump is warning that if the Zelensky doesn’t achieve peace, there will be drastic changes in Kiev.

Mercedes shares declined in Germany on Thursday after the struggling automaker reported a nearly one-third drop in 2024 profits, pressured by softening demand in China and sluggish electric vehicle sales. Analysts at Bernstein characterized the 2025 outlook for passenger cars as “predictably weak.” 

Here’s a snapshot of the 2024 fiscal year financial results. The focus is on deteriorating EBIT margin (courtesy of Bloomberg):  

• Ebit EU13.60 billion, -31% y/y

• Dividend per share EU4.30 vs. EU5.30 y/y, estimate EU4.32

• Profit EU10.41 billion, -28% y/y, estimate EU9.87 billion

• Sales EU145.59 billion, -4.5% y/y, estimate EU145.85 billion

• Industrial free cash flow EU9.15 billion, estimate EU8.49 billion

• Vans adjusted return on sales 14.6% vs. 15.1% y/y, estimate 14.8%

• Vans adjusted Ebit EU2.83 billion, estimate EU2.87 billion

Mercedes announced plans to slash 10% of production costs through 2027 and provided a dismal outlook for this year. It expects lower sales and guided profit margins lower than Wall Street’s expectations…

2025 Forecast:

• Sees Cars adjusted return on sales 6% to 8%, estimate 7.91% (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees Vans adjusted return on sales 10% to 12%, estimate 12.8%

“To ensure the company’s future competitiveness in an increasingly uncertain world, we are taking steps to make the company leaner, faster and stronger,” CEO Ola Kallenius wrote in a statement.

With CEO Kallenius at the helm, Mercedes has prioritized producing higher-end vehicles while shifting away from entry-level models. There was a time—many years ago—when the automaker focused on building cars for executives. However, weak demand for Maybachs and G-Wagons in China and other markets has pressured this strategy.

Kallenius expects margins margins upwards of 10% by 2027. Like many others in Europe, automakers have been pressured by weakening global demand, a dismal economic environment in Germany, and Chinese competitors such as BYD. At the same time, trade tensions with the US are another headwind for EU automakers. 

On Thursday, Mercedes shares in Germany fell as much as 3.8% in trading. Shares have been locked in a four-year lateral between 50 euros as the base and 75 euros as the ceiling. 

Analyst commentary from Goldman’s George Galliers and others noted that 4Q24 “beat” but profit margin forecasts for this year are problematic:

• Waiting for 2027 – Mercedes’ initial release provided limited disclosure with respect to today’s CMD content. MB confirmed that the next generation of products starts this year with the new CLA, to be followed by an upgrade of the S-Class in 2026 and BEV versions of the GLC and C-Class. The company expects sales to gain traction in 2027 on the back of the new products. In addition, MB plans to reduce production costs by 10% by 2027 and also take measures to tackle material costs and fixed costs over the same period.

• Shareholder returns solid but no clarity yet on Trucks – Mercedes plans to buy back up to €5bn of shares within 24 months, subject to approval at the company’s AGM in May. MB stated that the buyback is in line with the existing policy, to return 100% of future ind. FCF above the dividend, and confirmed a continuation of a c.40% payout ratio. We wait to see if the CMD provides clarity on what MB plans for its Daimler Truck stake.

• 4Q24 group EBIT beat as Cars sees cost tailwinds – Mercedes reported 4Q24 group adj. EBIT of €3.53bn, 9.6% ahead of company-compiled consensus (€3.22bn, GSe €3.42bn). The beat was driven by Cars with adj. EBIT at €2.38bn (cons €2.21bn, GSe €2.34bn) leading to an 8.1% margin (cons 7.8%, GSe 8.1%). Looking at the Cars bridge, weaker Volume/Structure/Pricing -€780mn was offset by a better than expected performance on ind. costs €206mn (GSe €29mn). R&D also provided a tailwind at €273mn (GSe -€265mn). 4Q ind. FCF was strong at €2.90bn (cons €2.12bn, GSe €2.11bn) despite a limited contribution from WC. Mercedes declared a dividend of €4.30 for FY24 (GSe €4.50).

• FY25 guide suggests negative revisions to estimates – Mercedes guided for group EBIT significantly below 2024, implying

More analyst commentary (courtesy of Bloomberg):

RBC (outperform)

• Analyst Tom Narayan writes that the buyside’s expectations were heightened into today’s investor event and some may have expected more on capital return, for example relating to the Daimler Truck stake
• Notes the miss in the van margin guidance for 2025
• Still, says the 4Q Ebit came in ahead of consensus and the company is calling for 2025 cars Ebit margins to be 7%, at the midpoint where consensus is

Bernstein (market-perform)

• Analysts led by Stephen Reitman say 2025 passenger cars guidance is “predictably weak” and in-line with their expectations, while vans guidance is a miss
• Say it’s a slight beat on the full-year results and the guidance, and notes the new buyback details

Citi (neutral)

• Analysts Harald Hendrikse and Soumava Banerjee say Mercedes is “at least fighting” its deteriorating Ebit margin trend and the share buyback program should shore up the firm’s earnings per share until 2027, when new products are meant to boost profitability

Separately, Europe’s largest automaker, Volkswagen, has also come under pressure, moving forward with cost-cutting measures to reduce 35,000 jobs in Germany by the end of the decade. Europe is a mess. 

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

MSNBC hack Chris Matthews received widespread condemnation Tuesday for asking during a live broadcast “who is going to take a shot” at President Trump.

The leftist propaganda machine is back to spreading incendiary rhetoric where Trump is concerned.

In fact, it never stopped.

During a ‘Morning Joe,’ appearance former Matthews called on Democrats to fight back against the “Big Boss,” Trump.

“He’s the big boss at home and the big boss overseas and nobody stands in his way. And I watch the Democrats and the media too. It’s very hard to take on a firing squad,” Matthew’s blathered.

He continued, “A lot of bullets coming your way, all aiming at you, and you’ve got to shoot back in all directions at the same time.”

Okaaaay.

“Why can’t a Democratic leader stand up and say, what I just said,” Matthews said referring to taking on Trump, adding “This guy’s taking down the Congress. He’s taking down the rights of the American people. He’s the Big Boss overseas and back here. The Big Boss. Listen to him. Do what he says. Nobody’s saying that.”

Then came the kicker.

“I keep waiting,” Matthews asserted, adding “Who’s going to stand up? Who’s going to take a shot back at this guy?”

🚨NEW: MSNBC’s Chris Matthews fires up the incendiary Trump rhetoric:

“Who is going to stand up? Who is going to take a shot back at this guy?”

Here legacy media goes again:

“Trump came in this time, the second time with a machine gun and he fired so many shots. He said, first… pic.twitter.com/XA5ndEI9UM

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) February 18, 2025

Not exactly smart, using this kind of language when your audience is made up of Trump hating extremists. 

Or maybe that’s the intention.

He chose his words carefully in hopes they inspire someone. I’ve never heard a more disturbing rant by someone in the media and I’ve heard a lot

— Gingerine (@Gingerine5) February 19, 2025

I mean, you already had the guy in PA take several shots, Chris.

— matt dooley (@mdooley) February 18, 2025

It’s ok when they do it!

Zero doubt about this.

This rhetoric would be a weeklong outrage cycle demanding the person be fired and prosecuted.

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) February 18, 2025

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Having started the ‘Audit Fort Knox’ discussion last week…

Surely it’s reviewed at least every year?

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 15, 2025

With our suggestion immediately going viral on X, with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) indicating he’s on board – replying to Musk with “Let’s do it.”

Nope. Let’s do it. https://t.co/4sgVpaCwwz

— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) February 16, 2025

…we were pleased to see that during comments to the press aboard Air Force One, President Trump announced that he and Elon Musk’s DOGE are going to open up Fort Knox and make sure all the gold that is supposed to be there is present.

“We’re going to go to Fort Knox make sure the gold is there,” Trump said, adding “if the gold isn’t there we are going to be very upset.”

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump announces there WILL be an audit of the gold reserve at Fort Knox

Elon Musk has proposed a DEEP dive & LIVESTREAM into the Treasury & our gold reserves

“We’re going to go to Fort Knox make sure the gold is there,” Trump said
pic.twitter.com/Yrxes7dffk

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) February 20, 2025

Musk has suggested doing a live stream from the facility where over 4500 tons of gold belonging to the American people is supposed to be stored. 

As a reminder, Fort Knox has not been audited since the 1970s and not comprehensively since 1953.

However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was a little more pragmatic during an interview on BloombergTV, downplaying the Fort Knox ‘missing’ gold narrative and the rumor of a potential revaluation of the precious metal pile.

When discussing plans for a sovereign wealth fund, Bessent said revaluing US gold reserves is “not what I had in mind.” 

That appeared to play down the idea of revaluing reserves from the $42-an-ounce price set in 1973 to current market prices, which would deliver a one-time windfall of around $750 billion for the government and thereby reduce the need to issue bonds. 

The Treasury Secretary also said he had no plans to visit Fort Knox –  where much of the US gold reserve is kept – adding that “all the gold is there” and any senator is welcome to visit to see it. 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says, “all the gold is there,” as he has no plans to visit Fort Knox or to revalue gold reserves in a sovereign wealth fund https://t.co/jjpfgt8acn pic.twitter.com/cmgYtVoPr6

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) February 20, 2025

Any Senator that is except Mike Lee?

As a U.S. senator I’ve tried repeatedly to get into Fort Knox

Fort Knox: “You can’t come to Fort Knox.”

Me: “Why?”

Fort Knox: “It’s a military installation.”

Me: “I’m a senator; I go to military bases all the time.”

Fort Knox: “You still can’t come. Because, you can’t.” https://t.co/3V2jlU4SNX

— Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee) February 17, 2025

The combination of Trump and Bessent’s comments sent the precious metal initially to a new record high price of $2954, before fading back to  $2925…

The barbarous relic has hit successive records this year, after climbing 27% in 2024; and as we detailed here this week, Goldman raised its year-end target to $3,100 an ounce, saying that stronger-than-expected central-bank buying would be a key driver for prices.