Zerohedge

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Tuesday that Elon Musk is ‘insecure,’ and ‘not a happy person’ – after the two engaged in a social media spat following a Musk-led group’s offer to purchase the nonprofit that controls OpenAI, the makers of ChatGPT.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Altman reiterated that OpenAI is “not for sale” amid an attempted restructuring into a for-profit entity which is currently being challenged as part of a broad federal antitrust lawsuit against OpenAI, key investor Microsoft, and Altman himself, NY Post reports.

“Probably his whole life is from a position of insecurity,” Altman said of Musk, adding “I feel for the guy. I don’t think he’s a happy person.”

Musk and Altman co-founded OpenAI in 2015, but eventually had a falling out over the company’s eventual direction. Musk has since founded competitor xAI.

Altman suggested that Musk’s offer is “probably just trying to slow us down” using a tactic.

“He obviously is a competitor,” Altman continued. “I wish he would just compete by building a better product, but I think there’s been a lot of tactics, many, many lawsuits, all sorts of other crazy stuff, now this.”

“I wish he would just compete by building a better product,” Sam Altman says of @elonmusk in an interview with @TomMackenzieTV.

“Probably his whole life is from a position of insecurity, I feel for the guy… I don’t think he’s, like, a happy person.” pic.twitter.com/YhUmmW5iNe

— annmarie hordern (@annmarie) February 11, 2025

Musk responded to the interview by saying “Scam Altman has cray eyes…”

Scam Altman has crazy eyes

— Harry Bōlz (@elonmusk) February 11, 2025

On Monday, Musk’s attorney Marc Toberoff said he submitted the bid to OpenAI’s board of directors in an unsolicited offer that could upend OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s plans to convert it into a for-profit company, as well as plans to spend up to $500 billion on AI infrastructure through the so-called ‘Stargate’ joint venture, WSJ reported.

“It’s time for OpenAI to return to the open-source, safety-focused force for good it once was,” Musk said in a statement provided by Toberoff. “We will make sure that happens.”

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The latest figures published by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are staggering. $75 billion saved in two weeks. Some of the items they have slashed are astonishing, including payments to transgender musicals in Ireland, DEI in Serbia, or decolonization of curriculum vitae. This is a two-week result, so it should be applauded. However, there is a lot more that needs to be done.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the United States will have a $6.1 trillion deficit, despite record receipts of $17 trillion, a growing economy, and declining unemployment. Furthermore, they expect an annual deficit of $5.6 trillion in the 2026-2029 period.

As Scott Bessent has correctly stated, the United States does not have a revenue problem; it has a spending problem. The CBO expects annual outlays of $23 trillion in the 2026-29 period.

What do we know?

No revenue measure will eliminate the deficit. 

The United States’ governments have implemented numerous tax increases in the past decades and the national debt continues to reach record levels. Additionally, when revenues rise, governments spend even more than before.

The US spending problem comes from a completely unsustainable increase in mandatory spending, which is never audited and simply rises without control. 

Mandatory spending is expected to increase to $14 trillion per annum. 

Overspending and inefficiencies in these programs have never been properly tackled.

The measures announced by the Trump administration so far may bring an additional $300 billion in revenues. If the current pace of savings announced by DOGE is sustained, it could reach $1 trillion. However, as time passes, some of the savings are more difficult to find. Furthermore, the deep state machine is doing all it can to prevent any more cost savings, even using the judicial system.

The United States needs a chainsaw, like Milei implemented in Argentina. Considering that state and local departments will resist as much as they can and try to sabotage any spending cut, the government needs to implement a mandatory zero deficit in all administrations, effectively stopping the debt hemorrhage in the system.

The United States needs to do this because it is the only way to end the persistent inflation problem that plagues America, and it is essential to maintain the United States dollar as the world reserve currency. Furthermore, not implementing these drastic cuts will likely lead the United States to an economic decline like the French and UK ones. High taxes, elevated government spending, and constant deficits have made these once strong economies stagnate, lose competitiveness, and cripple investment.

Milei proved that drastic cuts can be implemented without hurting the economy. He has slashed inflation and reduced poverty, and the economy was already in a robust growth mode by the third quarter. The Argentina case was significantly more challenging than the United States one. It is time to bring the chainsaw and end the political spending spree.

US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is on his way back from Moscow, presumably as part of behind-the-scenes diplomatic talks between Putin and the Trump administration on jump-starting peace talks related to the Ukraine war.

The White House has announced that Witkoff has secured the release of history teacher Marc Fogel of Pennsylvania, who has been in Russian prison since he was detained in August 2021 at a Russian airport for Marijuana.

Fogel and his family have from the start maintained it was for medically prescribed marijuana, and his case is somewhat parallel to the Brittney Griner saga – but Fogel’s legal team has long complained that his case was forgotten by the Biden administration who secured Griner’s release (in Dec. 2022) in exchange for arms trafficker Viktor Bout earlier in the war, a controversial trade to say the least.

“President Trump, Steve Witkoff and the president’s advisors negotiated an exchange that serves as a show of good faith from the Russians and a sign that we are moving in the right direction to end the brutal and terrible war in Ukraine,” White House National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said. 

Details of the exchange have yet to be revealed, but Walz confirmed that Fogel has left Russian airspace and will soon be reunited with his family after nearly half a decade.

NSA Walz’s statement mentions an ‘exchange’ but gives no details of who/what was exchanged with the Russians towards securing Marc Fogel’s release. https://t.co/G8gBEjY3dx

— Camilla Schick (@CamJourno) February 11, 2025

This is a huge development, merely weeks in to the new Trump administration, and strongly suggests that diplomacy between Trump and Putin is moving forward and is strong.

It looks promising as far as the potential for Ukraine peace, and this could be a ‘goodwill offering’ of sorts by Putin.

School teacher Marc Fogel has served over three years in Russian prison on the drug-related conviction; however, the Biden administration did not declared him wrongfully detained even as it secured the release of Griner as well as Marine Paul Whelan and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich (the latter two last year), which had outraged his family which now suedi the federal government over prior lack of action.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A Democratic Congressman froze up for almost a minute during a speech on the House floor in the middle of blasting Republicans over social security, prompting renewed calls for terms limits.

76-year-old Rep. John Larson (D-CT) experienced the bizarre episode while voicing opposition to Elon Musk and DOGE being granted access to Social Security data.

Larson was in the midst of accusing President Trump and Republicans of conspiring with billionaires to obscure accountability in Congress and the courts when he stopped speaking and had some sort of neurological episode.

“Now [Trump] is saying he’s not even accountable to the courts because he and the billionaire class have gotten together and said, ‘Don’t worry, no one on the Republican side in the House and Senate who control both the House and Senate is going to speak up,’” Larson said before freezing up.

Larson then attempted to carry on speaking but was clearly straining to get words out.

76-year-old Democrat Rep. John Larson freezes mid-speech on the House floor.

WE NEED TERM LIMITS! pic.twitter.com/dSrqqAoAZH

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) February 11, 2025

Larson’s office later claimed it was an adverse reaction to a new medication and that there was no further cause for concern.

It’s the exact same situation that Senator Mitch McConnell has experienced multiple times in recent years.

This doesn’t look right. pic.twitter.com/n4vxUnvZsJ

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) July 26, 2023

McConnell has also fallen over twice within the past month and was seen Monday being hoisted out of a wheelchair into an SUV.

NEW: Senator Mitch McConnell has to get physically hoisted into a waiting SUV after he took yet another fall last week.

McConnell is 82 years old.

Retire.pic.twitter.com/15k34PySeB

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) February 11, 2025

Nancy Pelosi is also hobbling around on crutches after falling over.

This was Nancy Pelosi last week. These people need to retire. pic.twitter.com/MFYKmy4AA6

— Gentry Gevers (@gentrywgevers) February 11, 2025

Where is his family?

Someone needs to give it to him straight and convince him to retire and take care of himself.

We need fully functioning people, not ones that keep rebooting.

— Old School Eddie (@Old_SchoolEddie) February 11, 2025

And the Rino’s as well

— elaine r scott (@elaine121193) February 11, 2025

Congress needs term limits now more than ever.

— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) February 11, 2025

What actually happened here? Is this a TIA (Transient Ischemic Attack) also called a mini stroke? I’ve heard people can freeze up?

— 𝕁𝔼𝔽𝔽𝔼ℝ𝕊𝕆ℕ𝕊 𝕍𝕀𝕆𝕃𝕀ℕ (@Rust_And_Decay) February 11, 2025

Term limits will remove the good ones, we need health and cognition screenings with prublic disclosures so voters can be informed plus a list of disqualifying conditions. Officials used to have enough self respect to step down but now we need rules to demand it of them.

— Peachykeen (@april_pappas) February 11, 2025

*  *  *

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After four consecutive poor, tailing 3Y auctions, moments ago the Treasury reported the results of today’s sale of $58BN in 3 year paper, and it was nothing short of stellar.

The high yield of 4.300% was down 3.2bps from last month’s 4.332% and stopped through the When Issued 4.313% by 1.3bps, the first non-tailing 3Y auction since September.

The bid to cover was 2.786, a jump from last month’s 2.626 and the highest since August 2023.

The internals were also stellar, with Indirects awarded 74.0%, the highest since last September. And with Directs taking 15.8%, Dealers were awarded just 10.2%, the lowest on record.

Overall, this was a stellar auction with impressive metrics up and down…

… even if the market barely budged in reaction with 10y yields trading just shy of the 4.54% session high.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

We all see what we want to see.

Last Friday’s Michigan consumer survey was bipolar: 5-year ahead inflation expectations for Democrats leaped to 4.2% from 2.6% under President Biden, while for Republicans they plunged to 1.5%, from 3.4%. Who is right?

On Superbowl Sunday, President Trump ended production of US pennies, which now cost 2.8 cents to make. Just like that, a monetary norm was up ended. Trump also hinted at irregularities with some US Treasuries, so “maybe we have less debt that we thought.” That was either a fumble or a play towards the possible repudiation of some Treasury holdings, which would up-end the norms of the entire global monetary system. Can you decisively say which?

Scientists are reporting a 2.2% chance of an asteroid striking Earth in 2032. Most people are dismissing this entirely or saying that’s a low probability event: those who understand probability, and what an asteroid smacking into the planet did to the dinosaurs, are far more concerned.

As Elon Musk bids for OpenAI, a new paper finds leaning on one can “result in the deterioration of cognitive faculties that ought to be preserved,” and “higher confidence in GenAI is associated with less critical thinking, while higher self-confidence is associated with more critical thinking.” I’m shocked, shocked! And if you think we have lazy, first-order market takes out there now, wait until we get to that Michigan 5-year ahead mark.

Meanwhile, we now have 25% US tariffs on steel and aluminium, which could rise, hitting Canada hard, with immediate disruption to global supply chains. The US will be producing more, at higher cost, and imports into it will be more expensive, filtering downstream. There will also be a lot of steel and aluminium looking for a new home: which lucky countries will lose their remaining industries just as the national security argument for both is the strongest for half a century? Logically, that would imply lots of counter-protectionism. And inflation.  

We also got the hint of a potential US tariff carve-out for Australia after Trump talked to Australian PM Albanese. It’s possible that’s because Trump got confused between aluminum and aluminium; or Albo was the last person to talk (nicely) to him; or because of the AUKUS defence partnership – in which case, the geopolitics is clear, and it’s good news for the UK, but bad news for Europe and NATO.  

We haven’t had universal U.S. reciprocal tariffs yet, but they may come today or tomorrow.

Within the US, IRS agents may now have to work as ICE agents, as big a signal of orders changing as one can expect. So is the new burst of judicial action against the Trump administration: it just stalled Venezuelan prisoners from being sent to Guantanamo; aimed to immediately restore any frozen federal funding and end any funding pauses; and barred even the Secretary of the Treasury(!) from accessing Treasury databases and allowing DOGE from seeing those contents and informing the President about them. The constitutional precedents implied here are seen by lawyers as every bit as remarkable as the revolution Trump is pushing through at record speed.   

Abroad, the US has just watered down a law stopping foreign bribery which, in an unpleasant way, levels the playing field for it somewhat abroad… and leaves squeaky-clean Europe in the changing room again.

The Financial Times talks about Russian, Chinese, and US imperialism, missing a few others’ out. In that new (old) world, Trump just talked to China’s Xi, but we have no details on the call; China is seen mirroring its actions in the South China Sea in the Yellow Sea disputed between it and South Korea; India’s PM Modi is in France talking AI; incoming US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee speaks of changes of “Biblical proportions” in the region; Gazans are told they won’t be allowed back once they depart; Hamas is breaking its hostage deal with Israel – something Israeli PM Netanyahu’s critics accuse him of also wishing to do; and Trump just told Israel to cancel the deal entirely if all the remaining hostages aren’t home by Saturday, at which point, “All Hell will break out.” And the Suez Canal will most likely be impassable for western ocean carriers again.

Like I said, we all see what we want to see.

The ECB’s Lagarde told the EU parliament that European disinflation is on track while warning of a “challenging” economic environment, as global trade frictions pose risks – right before US tariffs began, and Europe indicated it will retaliate in kind.

Question: why do all those who decry tariffs as a gun-to-own-head tax on consumers respond to others tariffing them with the same ‘illogic’? The only logical answer is tit-for-tat realpolitik… which is exactly the kind of thinking which those who reject tariffs ignore in all other key policy areas.

But back to inflation: what about Europe’s TTF gas benchmark at €58, the highest since late 2022, and the equivalent of $100 oil? And if “global trade frictions” pose risks, what about the return of global imperialism? Is that equivalent to 0.1ppt or 0.2ppts on CPI? Good luck trying to run econometric models on that from the datasets we have, but I can help with the big picture: those who do imperialism well tend to have low, if variable, inflation; those who do it badly, or are on the wrong end of it, have high, if variable, inflation. What does that imply for monetary policy, in all kinds of ways?

“Let’s not see it,” seems to be the answer, even if I repeat that if lines on maps can move, lines on screens can and will do so more than people think.

The BOE’s Mann, who has flipped from hawk to dove, said UK demand conditions are quite a bit weaker, and firms have lost some of their pricing power: now let’s see what happens if import costs are forced higher by a global trade war regardless. As emerging markets will tell any developed market mirroring them that is prepared to listen, domestic demand can be at rock bottom, and yet inflation can still be sky high.

Moreover, today it’s Fed Chair Powell in the hottest of hot seats as he gives his semi-annual testimony to Congress. So many questions: and, quite probably, so few answers.  

In markets, some see the dollar as the place to go as this all plays out; others are pivoting from CAD to JPY as side-plays. Some see gold as an even better bet than any fiat play; others, looking further ahead, see crypto as the go-to alternative. And, of course, some still see good old “rate cuts!” and “buy all the things” as the play.

Others see all the above views as sympathetic – just not in a way that those who only see “rate cuts!” and “buy all the things” would like when an AI explains it to them.

We shall see when the penny, Treasury, and asteroid finally drops for them.

Following an urgent security cabinet meeting, the Israeli government has declared that it backs President Trump’s latest threat warning Hamas that “all hell” will break loose if Hamas doesn’t release all hostages from Gaza by Saturday.

“All cabinet members expressed support for US President Donald Trump’s demand for the release of our hostages by noon on Shabbat, and for his revolutionary vision for the future of Gaza,” the Netanyahu cabinet statement said.

This unanimous declaration includes backing Trump’s vision for taking over Gaza and relocating all Palestinians to neighboring Arab countries, which the UN and a number of nations’ leaders have condemned as ethnic cleansing.

On Monday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to reinforce its positions in the Gaza Strip and along the borders in readiness for “all scenarios” in the event Hamas refuses to release the hostages Saturday.

Trump’s statement had demanded a full release by noon. However, Israel is unlikely to completely break the ceasefire if Hamas still frees the three captives originally scheduled for release. This would mark the sixth round of hostage release under the current 42-day first phase of the truce deal.

One regional Arab pundit, Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, has said all of this is a ‘win’ for Netanyahu, who has proven an effective manipulator of foreign leaders and public opinion:

“Netanyahu allowed the release of some hostages, and then went to Washington to talk to Trump himself, and he got Trump to agree to the terms. His war goals are the destruction of Gaza, the displacement of the population and the elimination of Hamas,” he said.

Hamas has meanwhile reiterated that the only way to get the hostages home is for Israel to respect the ceasefire it has signed. The group further shrugged off Trump’s unleashing hell comments as having “no value” – saying it won’t respond to such threats.

But the ceasefire is certainly on the brink of crumbling at this point, and Trump’s repeat statements about a Gaza ‘takeover’ by the US, in order to turn it into the “Riviera of the Mediterranean” – is certainly complicating matters, to say the least. He also rejected a Palestinian ‘right of return’.

Meanwhile, the United Nations has estimated it will require more than $53 billion to rebuild Gaza and end the “humanitarian catastrophe” there. At least $20 billion would be needed in the first three years of rebuilding, the UN statement said. Videos have shown the IDF continuing to destroy sectors of the Gaza Strip, despite the ceasefire:

Fresh footage shows Israeli road-ripping bulldozers causing absolute DESTRUCTION to Jenin Refugee Camp infrastructure

Did somebody whisper ceasefire? https://t.co/grxpQ6jMeM pic.twitter.com/BRoFHpBgnI

— RT (@RT_com) February 11, 2025

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a new statement assessing damage costs, “While it has not been possible in the current environment to fully assess the totality of needs that will be required in Gaza, the interim assessment offers an early indication of the enormous scale of recovery and reconstruction needs in the Gaza Strip.”

President Donald Trump said in a Monday interview with Fox News that Iran is terrified after losing almost all its air defenses amid last year’s Israeli aerial attack and is now seeking to make a deal with the Untied States.

“Iran is very concerned. Iran is very frightened, to be honest with you, because their defense is pretty much gone,” Trump said of the October Israeli airstrikes. US intelligence has described that several Russian-supplied S-300 anti-air defense systems were destroyed.

“Maybe they are trying to get new defense as we speak but their defense is largely gone… Iran is very nervous. I think they’re scared. I think Iran would love to make a deal and I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them,” Trump added.

The remarks came days after Trump restored “maximum pressure” and fresh sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, which reflects the policy of his first term, when he pulled the US out of the JCPOA nuclear deal with Tehran.

“Everybody thinks Israel with our help or our approval will go in and bomb the hell out of them,” Trump said while noting that Israeli would need approval from Washington in that scenario.

“I would prefer that not happen. I’d much rather see a deal with Iran where we can do a deal, supervise, check it, inspect it,” the president continued.

That’s when Trump made one of the more interesting and provocative comments of the interview…

There’s two ways to stopping them: With bombs or a written piece of paper.

Trump:

Iran can’t have nukes. There’s two ways to stopping them: With bombs or a written piece of paper.

I think Iran is very concerned, scared & would love to make a deal. Their defence is largely gone.

I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them. pic.twitter.com/SOQOhFYPxy

— Clash Report (@clashreport) February 11, 2025

He stressed there are essentially two paths forward: with bombs or striking a new deal. “I would love to make a deal without bombing them,” Trump said.

But earlier the same day Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian charged that the US is not “sincere” about negotiations with Iran following last week’s new sanctions.

“If the US were sincere about negotiations, why did they sanction us?” Pezeshkian posed in a speech in Tehran commemorating the 46th anniversary of Iran’s Islamic revolution.

On February 5th Trump had revealed his thinking further in a post on X: “I want Iran to be a great and successful Country, but one that cannot have a Nuclear Weapon. Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens,” ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED,” he wrote.

The US is now increasingly worried that given last year’s tit-for-tat exchange of major strikes with Israel, Tehran leaders are more incentivized than ever to secretly develop a nuke.

However, the CIA has long assessed, even recently, that Iran’s leadership has not yet ordered the pursuit of a bomb. The Ayatollahs throughout the decades have also condemned atomic weapons as ‘unIslamic’.

Via Middle East Eye

Egypt has announced an emergency Arab summit to be held on February 27 in response to US President Donald Trump’s recent call to expel Palestinians from Gaza. Trump said he plans to take over the Gaza Strip, transfer its Palestinian population to other countries, and rebuild the territory into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. 

The US leader further questioned why Palestinians would ever want to return there when asked whether they would be allowed to return. Speaking at a White House press conference last Tuesday, with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu looking on, Trump said that Egypt and Jordan would “give us the kind of land that we need to get this done”.

On Sunday, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry said that it has communicated with several Arab countries in light of the “escalating developments in the Palestinian issue“.

“Over the past few days, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty made a series of phone calls with several Arab counterparts to mass regional efforts in a bid to thwart the US proposal of displacing the Palestinian people,” the ministry said.

Trump’s announcement last week sparked confused and angry reactions across the globe, with Hamas rejecting his surprise plans on Gaza, saying it was aimed at eliminating the Palestinian cause.

Egypt and Jordan have rejected the plan outright, with their leaders, foreign ministers, and several senior officials expressing their opposition. Arab diplomats stressed to Haaretz the gravity of the US president’s remarks on Cairo and Amman, noting that they are taking them “very seriously“.

Middle East Eye learned in early February that Jordan is ready to declare war on Israel in the event that Netanyahu attempts to forcibly expel Palestinians into its territory.

Well-placed sources in Amman and Jerusalem told MEE that the last thing Jordan wants is war and it is eager for a peaceful solution. But they are adamant that the Jordanians will close the border if refugees begin to cross into the country. 

One source told MEE that Trump’s proposal was an “existential issue” both for Jordan and the Hashemite dynasty, pointing out that the country is the third-poorest in terms of water in the world.

Meanwhile, MEE has also revealed that Trump’s explosive comments earlier this month had sent shockwaves across Egyptian diplomatic and intelligence circles, Two diplomatic sources – one Egyptian and one Arab – revealed that Arab countries, led by Egypt, are scrambling to offer alternatives to Trump’s displacement plan. 

Among the proposals discussed is a major reconstruction initiative involving US companies in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, Sudan and Gaza – without displacing its residents. This plan would be funded through lucrative Arab contracts to entice Trump and divert his attention from forced relocation.

‘This is not possible’

Former Egyptian ambassador to the UN, Mootaz Ahmadein, said Trump’s words “should be taken very seriously”.

“Cairo must respond with a simple yet powerful phrase that could unsettle him: ‘No, this is not possible,’” Ahmadein told MEE. Ahmadein further suggested that Egypt should coordinate with other nations that have been affected by Trump’s controversial policies – such as Canada, Panama, Greenland (Denmark), Colombia, Brazil, Mexico and the European Union – and seek their support in opposing him. 

Jordan’s King Abdullah II faces a tense meeting with Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday as he leads opposition from Arab nations to the US president’s controversial Gaza takeover plan ➡️ https://t.co/lU1uDGouNe pic.twitter.com/EglzrNNXdM

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 11, 2025

A senior Palestinian official speaking to Haaretz said that while a unified stance against the forcible expulsion of Palestinians is crucial, there needs to be a clear outline on who will “manage and reconstruct” the beseiged enclave. 

“Will Hamas control Gaza, and if not, will the Palestinian Authority? How can this be implemented, how to move forward in the reconstruction process and also in the political process, if at all? These questions still have no answer,” the diplomat expressed.

The Geneva Conventions, which both the US and Israel have ratified, prohibit the forcible relocation of populations. Netanyahu is already wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague for war crimes and crimes against humanity. More than 47,000 Palestinians have been killed in the 15 months since he declared war on Gaza.

According to the UN agency, OCHA, almost all of the homes in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed. Despite these losses, Palestinians in Gaza have strongly rejected any resettlement plan, stating their determination not to allow Israel to successfully execute another Nakba.

Having surged (by the most on record) to its highest level since 2018 after Trump’s election victory, Small Business Optimism faded in January as ‘uncertainty’ soared higher (by the most on record, data back to 1986)…

Source: Bloomberg

The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index fell 2.3 points to 102.8 last month. 

Seven of the 10 index components decreased, led by the steepest monthly decline in capital spending plans since 1995.

Source: Bloomberg

The ‘DeepSeek’ effect? Not for Small businesses… With uncertainty at its third-highest level on record, the survey suggests companies are growing cautious about investment as the Fed puts rate-cuts on hold Trump begins moving forward with tariffs.

Sales expectations eased only slightly from the highest level since the start of 2020, while a smaller share of firms said now is a good time to expand operations.

Additionally, the share of firms planning to raise prices has been stuck in the same 10-point range for more than a year, underscoring concerns that progress toward taming inflation is stalling.

Source: Bloomberg

Despite this, small-business owners remain largely upbeat about the economy’s prospects, with a net 47% expecting the economy to improve in coming months.