Zerohedge

Pakistan’s military has announced the successful test-firing of a ballistic missile as tensions with fellow nuclear-armed neighbor India grow following the terror attack on Indian-administered Kashmir last month, which resulted in 26 civilians massacred.

Pakistan’s government unveiled that it was Abdali Weapon System, a surface-to-surface missile with a range of 450km (280 miles), which can deliver either conventional or nuclear warheads.

The statement underscored that the launch was “aimed at ensuring the operational readiness of troops and validating key technical parameters, including the missile’s advanced navigation system and enhanced maneuverability features.”

The timing of the launch significantly raises the temperature in the region, and will be taken as an ultra-provocative ‘warning’ from India’s perspective. Starting last week Pakistan said it fears a military incursion by the Indian Army could be ‘imminent’.

Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar had said days ago Islamabad had “credible intelligence” that India has planning a military strikes “within 24 to 36 hours” – but apart from sporadic small arms border fire exchanged between each side, this scenario hasn’t materialized.

A video of the new launch featured military personnel chanting in Urdu “Allah is the greatest. Long live Pakistan” – which again, is clearly a message aimed at Pakistan’s Hindu-majority rival India.

Pakistan’s Joint Chiefs of Staff “expressed complete confidence in the operational preparedness and technical proficiency of Pakistan’s Strategic Forces to ensure credible minimum deterrence and safeguard national security against any aggression,” according to a national broadcaster.

State-produced footage of Saturday’s ballistic missile launch overseen by the military:

ISPR
Rawalpindi, 3 May 2025:
Pakistan today conducted a successful training launch of the Abdali Weapon System— a surface-to-surface missile with a range of 450 kilometers as part of Ex INDUS. The launch was aimed at ensuring the operational readiness of troops and validating key… pic.twitter.com/cKaJ0mo6RQ

— PTV News (@PTVNewsOfficial) May 3, 2025

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has meanwhile said he is holding dialogue within past days with officials from both sides. “We are reaching out to both parties, and telling, of course, them to not escalate the situation,” a statement from the State Dept said.

The only significant military action so far is that Pakistan’s military said last Tuesday it shot down an Indian spy drone over Kashmir, alleging that the UAV breached Pakistani-administered territory.

This could be the most dangerous moment in many years, given the two south Asian powerhouses have fought no less than three historic wars. Is another on the horizon? Regional diplomats and UN officials are scrambling to ensure de-escalation.

Via The Cradle

US President Donald Trump is facing growing scrutiny for withholding information about US military casualties resulting from the ongoing illegal military campaign in Yemen.

According to a report by The Intercept published Saturday, US Central Command (CENTCOM), the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the White House have refused to disclose how many US service members have been killed or wounded since the launch of Operation Rough Rider in March 2025.

The operation has involved over 1,000 US airstrikes against the Ansarallah-led Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) and killed hundreds of Yemenis, including many civilians.

Representative Ro Khanna of California criticized the White House, calling for full disclosure. “The administration should be transparent about the number of US casualties from the attacks on the Houthis,” he said, referring to Ansarallah. His colleague, Representative Pramila Jayapal of Washington, echoed the sentiment, warning that US forces should never have been put in harm’s way through unconstitutional military action lacking Congressional approval.

One recent incident underscored the risks: an F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet fell off the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier earlier this week after the ship reportedly made a sharp turn to avoid a Yemeni missile. One sailor was injured, and the $60 million jet was lost.

When The Intercept asked the Pentagon for casualty figures, officials deflected and directed the inquiry to CENTCOM. After this CENTCOM referred the request to the White House, which has remained silent.

Under the previous administration of Joe Biden, detailed casualty and attack data from across West Asia were regularly released, The Intercept noted.

The contrast has alarmed advocacy groups. Erik Sperling of Just Foreign Policy stated, “Withholding basic information from the public makes it harder for the media to shine light on how these officials are violating one of Trump’s most broadly popular campaign promises.”

The Intercept report follows an order issued by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday for the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier to remain in West Asia for another week, marking the second time its deployment has been extended amid ongoing military operations against Yemen.

The U.S. government is keeping American casualty numbers for the undeclared war on Yemen secret. This is not normal. https://t.co/ExZGVllJyq

— The Intercept (@theintercept) May 2, 2025

Meanwhile, Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael Waltz, was dismissed this week in part for including a journalist in sensitive discussions about Yemen strikes. Waltz had also pushed for greater military action against Iran and reportedly coordinated closely with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — actions that clashed with Trump’s more cautious approach, according to administration sources.

Update: Due to the huge response, one farm is already sold out of Wagyu. We’ve added another – Five Oaks Farm out of Griswold, Iowa – where you can grab an Ultra Combo Wagyu Bundle,10 lbs of Premium Ground Wagyu, or a ‘Just the Steaks‘ bundle. Read more about them below.

Since launching our online store in December, the response has been overwhelming. Not only is your support of our mission greatly appreciated, it’s allowed us to expand.

Thanks to RFK Jr.’s “Make America Healthy Movement,” people are paying close attention to what they’re putting in their bodies like never before – and want to know exactly where their food is coming from.

To that end, ZeroHedge Store is proud to introduce ranch-direct, clean, grass-fed beef and other meats, raised on vetted, independent farms across America, packed on dry ice, and shipped quickly and directly to your door as part of our new partnership with Texas Slim and The Beef Initiative – a key ally in the MAHA movement whose mission is to connect consumers directly to their food. We’re proud to join this movement, and we hope you will too.

You’ll know exactly what you’re putting into your body, where it came from, and you’ll be supporting a network of independent farmers with high standards who have been crushed under the monopoly on US beef held by four transnational corporations.

Each regeneratively-ranched farm is thoroughly vetted by The Beef Initiative, while community-based microprocessing centers are employed to ensure that your beef – and other meats, are quickly and cleanly butchered, packaged, flash frozen, and ready to ship directly to your door for free.

Pricing: By eliminating links in the chain, we can offer high quality, clean beef and other meats at very reasonable prices, directly from the ranch families that grew it.

*** By purchasing rancher-direct, your support goes straight to family-run ranches.

*** 5% discount for all Beef Initiative subscriptions

Here’s The Beef (and more)

We’re kicking off our Rancher-Direct program with four independent ranches, along with a NYC-based beef tallow skincare company that sources directly from Redbanks Beef Farm in Virginia.

Ebersole Cattle Co. – Iowa

Located just outside of Kellerton, Iowa, the Ebersoles have been in business since 1998 and specialize in Regenerative Ranching. Their meat is 100% Grass-Fed and Grass Finished, uses no hormones, antibiotics, or mRNA vaccines.

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• Rancher’s Favorites Box – Beef, Pork & Seasonally available Lamb & Whole Chickens. Comes with 2-4 steaks, 3-5 lbs ground meat (beef, sausage or pork – rancher’s choice), and 1lb of thick-cut bacon.

Five Oaks Farm – Iowa

Five Oaks Farm raises Wagyu in Griswold, Iowa with integrity, purpose, and zero shortcuts. This is premium, farm-fresh beef—crafted by our family and delivered to yours with bold, honest flavor you can trust.

Wagyu beef contains a higher proportion of monounsaturated fats, compared to commercial beef. Monounsaturated fats are known to be heart-healthy, helping to reduce bad cholesterol levels and lower the risk of heart disease.

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• Ultra Combo Wagyu Bundle: 3 Wagyu Steaks (Strip or Filet), Sirloin, Chuck Eye, 3lb Premium Ground Wagyu Beef, 4 Wagyu Patties (1/3 lb), 5 Wagyu Snack Sticks, 1 Pack Jerky, 1 Jar Wagyu Tallow (14oz), 1 Wagyu Cooking Guide

• 10lb Premium Ground Wagyu Shelf stable and packed with protein!

Beck Ranch – Wyoming

Family-owned in Lonetree, WY, Beck Ranch offers grass-fed, grain-free beef with no added hormones or antibiotics.

Check out their;

• Grassfed Ancestral Beef; 90% beef, 7% liver, 3% heart

• Steak Lover’s Bundle; 2 Filet Mignon steaks | 2 Ribeye or Rib Steaks Steaks | 2 Baseball or Ponderosa Steaks | 2 New York Strip Steaks | 2 Top Sirloin Steaks

Miller Bison – Nevada

Located in Eureka, Nevada, Anthony and Benita Miller have over 130 bison on their 320-acre farm which uses regenerative agriculture practices.

Check out their;

• Complete Bison Box; 2-4 steaks (Rancher’s choice of: Ribeye, Tenderloin, NY Strip, Top Sirloin, Flat Iron, Skirt and more), 2-3 lbs slow-cook cuts (roasts, short ribs, stew meat), and 4-6 lbs of Ground Bison. 

• Carnivore Bison Stick Pack; four flavors to choose from!

Born To Be Free – New York, Tallow sourced from Virginia

Nadja and John Scavone have produced a collection of non-toxic, chemical-free skincare products using the finest, regeneratively-sourced ingredients using grass-fed tallow.

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• Cattleman’s Skincare Collection; Sandalwood Body Butter (4oz), Sandalwood Tallow Soap Bar (4.5oz), Sweet Almond Body Butter (2.5oz), Coconut Vanilla Lip Balm (.3oz)

• Tallow Mayhem Collection

From Texas Slim, founder of The Beef Initiative: “This partnership with ZeroHedge isn’t just a media alignment—it’s the signal fire. American ranchers are reconnecting with the people they feed, not through policy or permission, but through proof of work. We’re laying the foundation for a sovereign food system—local, durable, and built on trust. Every box you buy keeps a rancher on the land and a way of life from disappearing.“

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Elvis Chan, the FBI’s Assistant Special Agent in Charge in San Francisco, has reportedly been placed on “terminal leave” and has not accessed agency systems for over a month, according to independent journalist Breanna Morello.

Chan has faced scrutiny for his alleged role in coordinating with social media platforms, including X (formerly Twitter), to censor conservatives during the 2020 presidential election, which saw President Joe Biden defeat President Donald Trump. In September 2023, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) issued a subpoena compelling Chan to testify about the FBI’s interactions with tech companies, which Jordan described as potential “coercion and collusion” to censor speech, according to the New York Post.

Chan, who served as a liaison to companies like Facebook and Twitter through the FBI’s Foreign Influence Task Force, did not attend a scheduled interview with the committee, prompting the subpoena, Jordan said, per the Post.

During a 2023 deposition with attorneys general from Louisiana and Missouri, Chan denied having “internal knowledge” of efforts to suppress a 2020 New York Post story about Hunter Biden’s laptop.

Morello notes:

The controversy surrounding Chan coincides with a 2023 ruling by the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, which found that the FBI, White House, U.S. Surgeon General, CDC, and CISA likely violated First Amendment rights by “coercing or significantly encouraging” social media platforms to censor content.

…

Chan, who identifies with “he/him” pronouns on his LinkedIn profile, still lists himself as the Assistant Special Agent in Charge at the FBI’s San Francisco Bay office, where he has served for over 19 years.

The FBI has not commented on Morello’s report.

The allegations against Chan come amid broader efforts by the Trump administration to protect free speech. In January, President Donald Trump signed an executive order prohibiting federal agencies from labeling citizen speech as “misinformation” or “disinformation.” Addressing the World Economic Forum, Trump said the order aimed to “safeguard free speech” and halt practices that “stifle the exchange of ideas.”

Last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the closure of the Global Engagement Center, a State Department entity criticized for its role in monitoring online speech. In an op-ed published in The Federalist, Rubio cited a 2020 GEC report that flagged speculation about COVID-19’s origins, including theories about a Wuhan lab, as part of a “Russian disinformation” campaign.
“Finally, as we recommit this country to its core constitutional free speech principles at home, we will remain vigilant abroad — not just against threats from adversaries such as Communist China but also from less expected countries where authoritarian censorship is gradually strangling true freedom of speech,” Rubio added. “We are not afraid. At her birth, America was a lone beacon of freedom to the world. If necessary, we will happily be that lone beacon once again.“

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

The European Union is set to impose sweeping Anti-Money Laundering (AML) rules that will ban privacy-preserving tokens and anonymous cryptocurrency accounts from 2027.

Under the new Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR), credit institutions, financial institutions and crypto asset service providers (CASPs) will be prohibited from maintaining anonymous accounts or handling privacy-preserving cryptocurrencies, such as Monero and Zcash.

“Article 79 of the AMLR establishes strict prohibitions on anonymous accounts […]. Credit institutions, financial institutions, and crypto-asset service providers are prohibited from maintaining anonymous accounts,” according to the AML Handbook, published by European Crypto Initiative (EUCI).

The AML Handbook. Source: EUCI

The regulation is part of a broader AML framework that includes bank and payment accounts, passbooks and safe-deposit boxes, “crypto-asset accounts allowing anonymisation of transactions,” and “accounts using anonymity-enhancing coins.”

“The regulations (the AMLR, AMLD and AMLAR) are final, and what remains is the ‘fine print’ — aka the interpretation of some of the requirements through the so-called implementing and delegated acts,” according to Vyara Savova, senior policy lead at the EUCI.

She added that much of the implementation will come through so-called implementing and delegated acts, which are mostly handled by the European Banking Authority:

“This means that the EUCI is still actively working on these level two acts by providing feedback to the public consultations, as some of the implementation details are yet to be finalized.”

“However, the broader framework is final, so centralized crypto projects (CASPs under MiCA) need to keep it in mind when determining their internal processes and policies,” Savova said.

EU to increase oversight of crypto service providers

Under the new regulatory framework, CASPs operating in at least six member states will be under direct AML supervision.

In the initial stage, AMLA plans to select 40 entities, with at least one entity per member state, according to EUCI’s AML Handbook. The selection process is set to start on July 1, 2027.

AMLA will use “materiality thresholds” to ensure that only firms with “substantial operations presence in multiple jurisdictions are considered for direct supervision.”

The thresholds include a “minimum of 20,000 customers residing in the host member state,” or a total transaction volume of over 50 million euros ($56 million).

Other notable measures include mandatory customer due diligence on transactions above 1,000 euros ($1,100).

These updates come as the EU ramps up its regulatory oversight of the crypto industry, building on previous measures such as the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).

Global food prices surged to a two-year high in April, driven by U.S. tariff policy uncertainty that has injected turmoil across markets. The latest spike brings prices dangerously close to levels that helped fuel the Arab Spring uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa between 2010 and 2012.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported on Friday that its Food Price Index—which tracks monthly changes in international prices of globally traded food commodities—averaged 128.3 points in April, up 1% from March and 7.6% from the same month last year.

The Food Price Index (FFPI) subcomponents, including cereals, meat, and dairy, mainly were up, while vegetable oils and sugar were down. 

Here’s a breakdown of how FFPI’s subcomponents performed in April:

• Cereals: Up 1.2% from March; wheat rose on tighter Russian exports, rice up on demand for fragrant varieties, maize higher due to low U.S. stocks.

• Meat: Up 3.2%; pig meat led gains, bovine prices firmed in Australia and Brazil on strong demand and limited supply.

• Dairy: Up 2.4%; butter hit an all-time high due to declining inventories in Europe, dairy index now 22.9% higher year-over-year.

• Vegetable Oils: Down 2.3%; palm oil fell with rising Southeast Asian output, soy and rapeseed oil up on strong demand, sunflower oil steady.

• Sugar: Down 3.5%; decline driven by fears of weakened demand from beverage and food sectors amid uncertain global economic outlook.

At 128.3, the FAO said FFPI moved to a two-year high on “currency fluctuations influencing price movements in world markets, while tariff policy adjustments raised market uncertainty.” 

Those prices are nearing 2010-12 Arab Spring levels…

Bloomberg quoted Monika Tothova, an economist at the FAO, as saying that short-term demand for some ag products has been visible amid the tariff war between President Trump and China.

The lingering question is whether the FFPI will continue rising amid tariff uncertainty—or if potential signaling around new trade talks between the U.S. and China suggests this price surge may be temporary. Still concerning is the level at which prices linger and how higher food prices can trigger social destabilization in weak countries.

Authored by Vincent Geloso via the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER),

Last month, a video was trending on social media showing a Canadian woman explaining that she had a 13-month wait for a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) test to check for a brain tumor.

Canada healthcare is horrifying

“Today on how f*cked is Canadian healthcare: I need an MRI to see if I have a f*cking brain tumor. Go ahead guess when it is? Go ahead, guess. It’s in 2026”

“My MRI to see if I have a brain tumor is in 2026. It’s March 2025 right now”

“If you… pic.twitter.com/fX1S0MD9EP

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) March 23, 2025

On X, formerly known as Twitter, community notes popped up to say that the video was misleading. “Priority is decided by physicians, not the province,” wrote one commenter. Another noted that wait times did vary by province.

None of this, however, detracts from the core truths:

• Canadian health care is not free and it has two prices: 

  • the taxes Canadians pay for it

  • and the wait times that make Canadians pay in the form of service rationing.

Canada’s publicly provided health care system actually requires rationing in order to contain costs. Because services are offered at no monetary price, demand exceeds the available supply of doctors, equipment, and facilities. If the different provinces (which operate most health care services) wanted to meet the full demand, each would have to raise taxes significantly to fund services. To keep expenditures down (managing the imbalance from public provision) and thus taxes as well, the system relies on rationing through wait times rather than prices.

The rationing keeps many patients away from care facilities or encourages them to avoid dealing with minor but nevertheless problematic ailments. These costs are not visible in taxes paid for health care, but they are true costs that matter to people.

All this may sound like an economist forcing everything into the “econ box,” but the point has also been acknowledged by key architects of public health care systems themselves. Claude Castonguay, who served as Quebec’s Minister of Health during the expansion of publicly provided care, conceded as much in his self-laudatory autobiography. The reality, he explains, is that eliminating rationing would imply significantly higher costs—costs that politicians are generally unwilling to justify through the necessary tax increases. Multiple government reports also take this as an inseparable feature of public provision—even though they do not say it as candidly as I am saying it here.

To illustrate the magnitude of rationing (and the trend), one can examine the evolution of the median number of weeks between referral by a general practitioner and receipt of treatment from 1993 to 2024. In most provinces (except one), the median wait time in 1993 was less than 12 weeks. Today, all provinces are close or exceed 30 weeks. In two provinces, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, the median wait times exceed 69 weeks. For some procedures, such as neurosurgery, the wait time (for all provinces) exceeds 46 weeks.

Estimating the full cost of health care rationing is far from straightforward. The central challenge lies in balancing data reliability with the breadth of conditions considered. While some procedures and ailments are well documented, they represent only a subset of those subject to rationing. For many other conditions, data quality is limited or inconsistent, making comprehensive analysis difficult. As a result, most empirical studies focus narrowly on areas where measurement is more robust, leaving much of the total cost unaccounted for.

In 2008, the Canadian Medical Association (CMA) released a study estimating the economic cost of wait times for four major procedures: total joint replacement, cataract surgery, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and MRI scans. For the year 2007, the CMA estimated that the cost of waiting amounted to $14.8 billion (CAD). Relative to the size of the Canadian economy at the time, this represented approximately 1.3 percent of GDP. That study did not include, as one former president of the CMA noted, $4.4 billion in foregone government revenues resulting from reduced economic activity. It also does not include the cost of waiting times for new medications.

These procedures do not capture the full scope of delays in the system and only a few procedures—and the analysis focused only on an arbitrary definition of “excessive” wait times. In 2013, the Conference Board of Canada found that adding an extra two additional ailments boosted the cost from $14.8 billion to $20.1 billion.

Another study used a similar method, but considered the cost in terms of lost wages and leisure. It arrived at a figure, for 2023, of $10.6 billion or $8,730 per patient waiting.

One study attempted to estimate the cost of rationing in terms of lives lost. 

This may seem callous, but lives lost means lost productivity—a way to approximate the cost of wait times. One study found that one extra week of delay in the period between meeting with a GP and a surgical procedure increased death rates for female patients by 3 per 100,000 population. Given that the loss of a life is estimated at $6.5 million (CAD), this is not a negligible social cost in terms of mortality.

And all of this for what? One could argue that these wait times come with good care once obtained. That is not true either. 

Adjusting for the age of population, Canada ranks (out of 30):

• #28 in doctors

• #24 in care beds

• #25 in MRI units

• #26 in CT scanners

In one comparative study examining care outcomes—such as cancer treatment, patient safety, and procedural success—“Canada performed well on five indicators of clinical quality, but its results on the remaining six were rated as either average or poor.” This is despite, after again adjusting for population age structure, Canada ranking as the highest spender among a group of 30 comparable countries. The reality is that, whatever nuances one wishes to introduce—whether in good faith, pedantically, or simply to troll—the core message of the viral video remains accurate: Canadian health care works well for those who can afford to wait. To which I might add: wait very long.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has issued a dire warning to about Europe’s financial system, predicting that “many” of the continent’s banks are at risk of catastrophic collapse.

In an interview with the Less Noise More Signal podcast, Ardoino highlighted how stringent regulations and risky banking practices could precipitate a wave of failures, drawing parallels to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023.

Ardoino’s concerns center on the European Union’s regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, which he argues exacerbates systemic risks rather than mitigating them. “The regulation was pushing us to keep 60% of our reserves in uninsured cash deposits in Europe,” the Tether CEO told host Pascal Hügli, describing a scenario where stablecoin issuers are forced to park billions in vulnerable bank accounts. “Imagine that you have 10 billion euros in market cap of your stablecoin in Europe. Then 60% needs to be kept in uninsured cash deposits in a bank. Uninsured cash deposit means that the bank insurance in Europe is only 100,000 euros. If you have 10 billion, 100,000 euros is like a spitting on a fire.”

Tether CEO @paoloardoino to @pahueg: “Many” European banks will “blow up” in the “next few years.” pic.twitter.com/HimWWYrbcU

— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) May 1, 2025

The math, as Ardoino laid out, is grim. With 60% of a stablecoin’s reserves—equivalent to 6 billion euros in his example—held in uninsured deposits, banks’ fractional reserve practices amplify the risk. “They can lend out 90% of it to people that want to buy a house, that want to start a business, and all that,” he explained. “So 5.4 billion euros will be lent out by the bank and 600 million euros will be cut.” In the event of a 20% redemption demand, or 2 billion euros, Ardoino warned that banks would fall short of cash. “You go to the bank and you tell the bank, well, I want 2 billion euros. And the bank says, well, I only have 600 million euros.”

Ardoino predicts that the fallout would be catastrophic for stablecoin issuers. “As a stablecoin issuer, you go bankrupt. Not because of you, because of the bank,” the Tether CEO said. “So the bank goes bankrupt and you go—like, so is—I mean, and—and, oh, sure, the government will say, ah, told you so, stable coins are very dangerous.”

Ardoino’s critique extends to the broader European banking ecosystem, which he believes is ill-equipped to handle stablecoin operations. Major institutions like UBS, which he described as “systemic risk banks,” refuse to work with stablecoin issuers, forcing companies like Tether to rely on smaller, less stable financial institutions. “They need to use very small banks,” he said, warning that these institutions are particularly vulnerable. “Mark my words, as happened with Silicon Valley Bank that, by the way, almost killed them in 2033, they will face the same issues.”

“Four banks blew up last—in the last two years in the US,” he added. “Many banks will blow up in Europe in the many years—in the next few years.”

Ardoino’s comments come as Tether plans to launch a stablecoin product in the U.S. as soon as this year.

“We are just exporters of what we believe to be the best product the United States ever created — that is, the US dollar,” the Tether CEO said in an interview with CNBC.

As of April 25, Tether’s USDt solidifies its position as the leading stablecoin, securing a commanding 66% of the market, according to Cointelegraph. With a market capitalization hovering around $150 billion, per CoinGecko, USDt underscores its pivotal role in the crypto ecosystem. The Department of the Treasury’s Q1 2025 report projects a robust future for USD-pegged stablecoins, anticipating their combined market cap to soar to $2 trillion by 2028, signaling a transformative shift in digital finance, per the crypto-focus news outlet. 

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

That would greatly complicate Russia’s goal of demilitarizing Ukraine and thus imperil the peace talks…

The US and Ukraine finally signed their minerals deal after amending the draft agreement to remove a proposal for Ukraine to pay back past US military aid. A clause was added though whereby future US military aid, including technology and training, is considered part of the US’ contribution to their joint fund. More weapons packages will likely be in the cards since the US now has economic stakes in Ukraine and the value of the aid that it sends to defend them can be counted toward their joint fund.

Such an arrangement imbues the US with more policymaking flexibility than if it had conceded to Ukraine’s demand for concrete security guarantees. Authorizing another weapons package at this diplomatically delicate moment in the peace process could spook Russia and thus lead to the talks’ collapse. At the same time, however, this deal will likely lead to such packages being authorized after a ceasefire on the pretext of defending US investments and contributing to their joint fund.

What this means in practice is that Russia shouldn’t expect the US to fully dump Ukraine in any realistic scenario from here on out. Trump just rewarded Zelensky for this agreement by “inform[ing] Congress of [his] intention to green-light the export of defense-related products to Ukraine through direct commercial sales (DCS) of $50 million or more” according to the Kyiv Post citing unnamed diplomatic sources. This signals his newfound interest in resuming DCS in lieu of large-scale weapons packages.

Although this sum is insignificant compared to the over $1.6 billion in DCS authorized between 2015-2023 that the Kyiv Post reminded their audience about, and nowhere near what the US Government directly provided since 2022, it still importantly hints at his calculations. If Trump comes to believe that Zelensky is responsible for the peace talks’ collapse, then he might continue to withhold weapons packages as punishment, but he could still green-light more DCS deals.

Likewise, if he comes to believe that Putin is responsible for this, then he might authorize large-scale weapons packages as punishment. Either way, US arms will likely continue flowing into Ukraine due to their amended minerals deal, with the only variables being the quality, scale, pace, and terms of these weapons shipments. This greatly complicates Russia’s goal of demilitarizing Ukraine, especially seeing as how the US will struggle to stop Europe from arming Ukraine no matter how hard the US might try.

Accordingly, Russia might calculate that it’s better to concede to Ukraine’s partial demilitarization given the difficulty of achieving its full demilitarization, but the threat that this poses could be managed by demanding a demilitarized “Trans-Dnieper” region controlled by non-Western peacekeepers. Even if that proposal isn’t agreed to, Russia might still push for geographic limits on Ukraine’s deployment of certain weapons, which would require a UNSC-approved monitoring and enforcement mechanism to work.

So long as Trump is sincere about reaching a deal with Putin, then he should agree to this compromise or a variation thereof to keep the peace process alive, otherwise Putin might find it politically impossible to approve of any agreement that entails abandoning his goal to demilitarize Ukraine. That’s essentially what’s at stake now given that the amended terms of the US’ minerals deal with Ukraine greatly complicate Russia’s attainment of this objective that’s among the reasons for its special operation.

Via The Cradle

The Iranian Foreign Ministry affirmed on Friday that Tehran is committed to continuing the diplomatic process and negotiations regarding its nuclear program but that it “will not accept pressure and threats that violate international law and target the rights of the Iranian people.”

In a statement, the ministry condemned the continued illegal sanctions on Iran and the “pressure on its economic partners,” viewing them as “further evidence that the United States is not serious about adopting a diplomatic approach toward Iran.”

It also stressed that the continuation of these policies “will not change Iran’s firm positions in defending its legitimate rights,” and that “testing failed methods will only lead to a repetition of past failures.”

The Foreign Ministry went on to say that the Iranian negotiating delegation, during the first three rounds, attempted to “reach a fair agreement that guarantees the rights of the Iranian people, within the specified frameworks that allow Tehran to use peaceful nuclear energy.”

Tehran entered indirect negotiations with Washington following US President Donald Trump’s letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to “resolve a fabricated crisis through diplomacy, based on good faith,” the statement added.

The Ministry’s statement came after Trump announced on Thursday that all purchases of Iranian oil or petrochemical products must stop, warning that any country or individual continuing such trade would face immediate secondary sanctions and be barred from doing business with the US.

“They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form,” he wrote on Truth Social on Thursday. Secondary sanctions are a powerful tool for the US because of the size of its economy.

Trump’s comments follow the postponement of the latest US talks with Iran over its nuclear program. The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced on Thursday that the fourth round of talks, which were due to take place in Rome on Saturday, had been rescheduled at the suggestion of the Sultanate of Oman for “logistical reasons.”

Sources speaking with Al Mayadeen explained that the postponement came “against the backdrop of the conflicting positions taken by the US administration regarding the talks, and Washington’s efforts to change the general framework for negotiations that had been previously agreed upon.”

In a related development, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted on Thursday that Iran must “walk away” from both uranium enrichment and the development of long-range missiles. 

“They have to walk away from sponsoring terrorists, they have to walk away from helping the Houthis (in Yemen), they have to walk away from building long-range missiles that have no purpose to exist other than having nuclear weapons, and they have to walk away from enrichment,” Rubio said in an interview with Fox News. 

Iran has always been five years away from a nuclear weapon, and we’ve always been at war with Eastasia https://t.co/ZSt8KzQ1iC

— Liam McCollum (@MLiamMcCollum) April 21, 2025

His comments came as the fourth round of nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington, set to take place in Rome on Saturday, were postponed. 

An Iranian official cited by Reuters said a new date for the talks would be set “depending on the US approach.” Tehran has repeatedly affirmed that both its uranium enrichment and its defense capabilities are non-negotiable in the talks with the US.