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Zerohedge

125,000 New Yorkers Fled For Florida The Last 5 Years, Taking $14 Billion With Them

May 2, 2025 Ogghy Filed Under: THE NEWS, Zerohedge

125,000 New Yorkers Fled For Florida The Last 5 Years, Taking $14 Billion With Them

More than 125,000 New Yorkers relocated to Florida over a recent five-year span, draining the Empire State of nearly $14 billion in income, according to a new report from the Citizens Budget Commission (CBC), a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog, reported on by the New York Post.

Roughly a third of those fleeing New York City—some 41,251 residents—resettled in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward counties between 2018 and 2022, resulting in a $10 billion loss in adjusted gross income (AGI) for the city. An additional $3.8 billion in income was lost to other Florida destinations.

“They are getting something more beneficial to them,” said CBC President Andrew Rein. “The key is with any place you need the benefits to outweigh the cost. The question right now for New York is what do we offer?”

The CBC attributes the exodus to a mix of affordability concerns, public safety, quality of life, and lingering pandemic effects. Only 30% of New Yorkers rated city life as “good or excellent” in 2023—down from 50% pre-pandemic.

The Post writes that high-income earners led the charge. Miami-Dade saw an influx of ex-New Yorkers with average incomes topping $266,000. Palm Beach newcomers earned around $189,000, while Fairfield County, Connecticut, drew residents with an average income of $141,000. Notably, New York’s top 1% of earners pay 40% of the state’s income taxes.

“One of the critical issues of our time is keeping our competitiveness for businesses and residents,” Rein said. “We need to focus on ensuring we don’t tax too much, that we are a safe place to live, and that people find quality of life to be high.”

Florida wasn’t the only winner. Nearby suburbs absorbed thousands of city dwellers:

  • Long Island gained 138,000 NYC expats, costing the city $11.1 billion in AGI.

  • Westchester County added nearly 60,000, for a $5 billion hit.

  • Fairfield County took in 31,000, costing $4.9 billion.

  • Bergen County, New Jersey, saw over 30,000 newcomers, with a $1.8 billion impact.

Altogether, relocations within the Northeast accounted for a $22.8 billion loss in AGI and a population decline of more than 230,000.

Despite a doubling of millionaires in New York from 2010 to 2022—from 36,000 to 70,000—the state’s share of U.S. millionaires dropped sharply, falling from 12.7% to 8.7%.

“Our competitiveness depends in part on quality of life and public safety,” said Rein. “Simply put, some people found the value proposition of other places to be higher than New York City.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 13:40

The Awards You Never Get When Investing

May 2, 2025 Ogghy Filed Under: THE NEWS, Zerohedge

The Awards You Never Get When Investing

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In investing, success is often judged by numbers – returns on investment, percentage gains, and the ability to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500. 

However, some investors frequently pursue a peculiar set of “awards” without realizing the pitfalls they embody. These unspoken goals, while tempting, rarely lead to sustainable investment success. If there were awards for some of these common but ill-advised behaviors, they would likely cause more harm than good. Here are some of the “investing awards” you’ll never receive, because chasing them isn’t worth the cost.

I Never Sold At A Loss Medal

Market volatility is an inherent aspect of investing. Striving to avoid all losses, or drawdowns, is unrealistic. Trying to sidestep volatility often leads to lower returns and missed growth opportunities. Overly conservative investments may not keep pace with inflation, steadily eroding purchasing power. Managing risk effectively instead of avoiding it is essential for long-term portfolio success.

Many investors pride themselves on never realizing a loss, believing that holding every position until it turns profitable is a badge of honor. However, this mindset often leads to holding onto poor performers indefinitely, tying up capital that could be better deployed elsewhere. This behavior is a classic example of behavioral mistakes investors make, specifically the “disposition effect,” where investors hold losing assets too long while selling winners too early. Focusing solely on avoiding losses often damages overall portfolio returns.

Like everything in life, there is a “season” and a “cycle.” When it comes to the markets, “seasons” are dictated by the “technical and economic constructs,” and the “cycles” are dictated by “valuations.” The seasons are shown in the chart below.

As such, successful investing requires disciplined pruning to maintain a healthy garden. Recognizing when an investment no longer aligns with your strategy and cutting losses early frees up capital for better opportunities. There is no award for stubbornly holding a stock that continues to drag down your portfolio.

I Took On As Much Risk As I Could Award

During bull markets, taking on excessive risk seems attractive. High-risk assets like speculative tech stocks or cryptocurrencies often deliver eye-catching gains. Some investors view risk-taking as bravery. But the reality is that high risk doesn’t guarantee higher returns; it is frequently quite the opposite. As Howard Marks previously discussed, risk and volatility aren’t the same thing. For years, many investors (and academics) have been taught that volatility, the ups and downs of stock prices, equals risk. However, volatility is just one part of the picture, but risk is the probability of losing money. Just because prices bounce around doesn’t mean you’re at risk of a loss.

However, “High risk equals high reward” is not always true. Just because an investment has a higher degree of risk does not guarantee it will deliver superior returns. Given that risk is the probability of losing money, taking on excess risk does increase the potential for poor returns over time. In other words, increasing risk increases the potential for significant losses. As such, investors must be careful about chasing returns without fully understanding the risks. The goal should be to weigh the possible outcomes and ensure the potential reward is worth the risk taken.

A good example was in 2022, when retail investors chasing meme stocks, SPACs, and IPOs suffered significantly heavier losses than the index. At that time, the ARK Innovation Fund, managed by Cathy Wood, was an example of peak speculation in the market. However, since then, those investments failed to recover. In other words, speculative risk-taking did not lead to outsized returns.

Sustainable investing requires aligning investments with financial goals and risk tolerance to avoid exposing one’s future to unnecessary volatility. Diversification, not reckless risk-taking, remains the best tool for improving risk-adjusted returns. While speculative investments lack the excitement and thrill, prudent investors build strategies focused on taking calculated, strategic risks that contribute to long-term wealth.

“You don’t get rewarded for taking risk; you get rewarded for buying cheap assets. And if the assets you bought got pushed up in price simply because they were risky, then you are not going to be rewarded for taking a risk; you are going to be punished for it.” – Jeremy Grantham

Successful investors avoid “risk” at all costs, even if it means underperforming in the short term. The reason is that while the media and Wall Street have you focused on chasing market returns in the short term, ultimately, the excess “risk” built into your portfolio will lead to inferior long-term returns. Wile E. Coyote never received an award for chasing the Roadrunner over the cliff.

I’m a Long-Term Investor (Only When I’m Losing Money) Certificate

A common rationalization is to claim to be a long-term investor only when losses mount. When an investment underperforms, investors often tell themselves they are simply “staying the course,” using time to justify inaction. Research by Barberis and Thaler (2003) on behavioral biases shows that loss aversion—the tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains—strongly influences this behavior.

True long-term investing demands more than patience; it requires a disciplined, objective framework. This means purchasing quality assets with strong fundamentals, establishing clear investment theses, and periodically reassessing those theses. Successful investors, like Warren Buffett, have emphasized that staying invested in a poorly performing asset without reevaluating it is not long-term investing—it is emotional decision-making disguised as strategy.

A good example is Intel (INTC) versus Texas Instruments. Over the last five years, Intel has lost 62% of its value as it lost its chip-making dominance to companies like AMD, Nvidia, Broadcom, and others. For investors holding Intel, many are hoping that something will occur and they can recover that loss. However, at any point over the last 5 years, they could have sold Intel and bought virtually any other chip maker and increased their wealth. While there are many examples, this exemplifies the point of opportunity cost. Holding a losing asset for long periods eats away at the wealth-building process and consumes our most precious commodity: time.

Building a resilient portfolio is not about loyalty to individual positions. It is about effective asset allocation, risk management, and ongoing evaluation. Markets evolve, industries change, and even once-promising companies can lose their competitive edge. Recognizing when an investment no longer fits your portfolio’s long-term goals—and having the discipline to move on—is a hallmark of professional investing, not a weakness.

I Never Used Stop-Losses Or Managed Risk Ribbon

Some investors view risk management strategies like stop-losses, portfolio rebalancing, and diversification as unnecessary restraints on potential gains. Instead, they trust intuition, believing they can “ride out” volatility. Behavioral research (Shefrin, 2000) shows that overconfidence is one of individual investors’ most common mistakes, often leading to catastrophic losses when market conditions change suddenly.

Managing risk effectively isn’t about fear or pessimism. It is about protecting your capital from irreparable damage so that you can continue participating in future market growth. Stop-losses are designed not to predict downturns but to limit exposure to individual positions that deteriorate beyond acceptable thresholds. Similarly, rebalancing prevents portfolios from drifting into unintended risk concentrations over time.

An example of risk management can be very simplistic. For example, using a 40-week moving average as a “risk off” indicator can help avoid more protracted market drawdowns.

We can apply a “risk management” strategy to that moving average to reduce risk during corrective periods. For this example, when the S&P 500 breaks below the 40-week moving average, stock exposure is reduced by 50%, and it reverses to 100% when the index crosses above that moving average. The results are shown below.

While there are times when investors were triggered to reduce and then increase exposures quickly, the 2000 and 2008 financial crises underscored the consequences of unmanaged portfolios. Many investors holding full exposures to equities without risk controls suffered permanent losses (Brunnermeier, 2009). Risk management is the bridge between surviving market turbulence and thriving in long-term wealth creation. No one ever received an award for riding markets substantially lower. Such is not a testament to resilience—it is an avoidable failure.

I Beat the S&P 500 Medallion

Outperforming the S&P 500 is often portrayed as the ultimate measure of investing success. However, data from the SPIVA U.S. Scorecard shows that approximately 85% of actively managed U.S. equity funds underperform their benchmarks over ten years. While not every manager underperforms yearly, and periods of outperformance exist, the persistent challenge highlights the difficulty of consistently beating the S&P 500.

Pursuing benchmark-beating returns can lead investors into dangerous territory. Studies in behavioral finance (Statman, 2000) show that investors chasing outperformance often engage in high-turnover strategies, excessive trading, and speculative bets. These behaviors introduce additional risks and higher transaction costs that erode potential gains. The result is that investors, while trying to “beat the index, ” consistently underperform over time. As noted in the 2024 Dalbar Research report:

As noted above, even the most simplistic of risk management strategies can improve returns over time while maintaining a focus on investment goals. Instead of fixating on beating the benchmark, focus on building a portfolio that aligns with your financial goals and personal risk tolerance. Ultimately, true investing success isn’t measured against a broad index. No one will ever give you an award for beating an index from one year to the next. However, they will measure your success by what matters most: whether you achieved your objectives, like securing a comfortable retirement or funding important goals.

Conclusion: Building a Smarter Path to Investing Success

To avoid the costly mistakes outlined above, investors must adopt a disciplined, process-driven approach to managing their portfolios. Sustainable investment success comes from understanding, not reacting to, market behavior. Here are the critical steps you should take:

  • First, embrace losses as part of the investment journey. Prune weak investments when they no longer fit your strategy, reallocating capital to stronger opportunities rather than waiting for recoveries that may never come.

  • Second, respect risk. Avoid equating bravery with excessive risk-taking. Build portfolios aligned with your personal financial goals and loss tolerance, focusing on diversification and asset valuation rather than speculative bets.

  • Third, redefine long-term investing. Remaining loyal to a poor investment out of hope wastes time and wealth. Maintain objectivity by reassessing whether each holding still meets your original investment thesis.

  • Fourth, implement active risk management. Use stop-loss strategies, periodic rebalancing, and technical indicators like the 40-week moving average to protect against significant drawdowns. Managing risk is about ensuring survival, not limiting success.

  • Finally, stop chasing the S&P 500. Focus instead on achieving your financial objectives with consistent, risk-adjusted returns. Outperformance is meaningless if you fail to meet real-world needs, like securing retirement income or building generational wealth.

Successful investing is not about winning arbitrary “awards.” It is about managing risk, preserving capital, and steadily compounding returns toward your goals. Ignore the noise, stay disciplined, and remember: no one hands out awards for reckless investing—only consequences.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 13:20

Netanyahu Stirs Fresh Controversy: Victory In Gaza Is Top Priority, Not Hostages

May 2, 2025 Ogghy Filed Under: THE NEWS, Zerohedge

Netanyahu Stirs Fresh Controversy: Victory In Gaza Is Top Priority, Not Hostages

According to fresh reporting in Haaretz, Israel is preparing tens of thousands of orders calling more reserve soldiers to active duty, amid an expected expansion of ground operations in the Gaza Strip.

But more reservists are increasingly needed as Israel’s military once again becomes more engaged in places like Syria, Lebanon, the Golan Heights, and security crackdowns in the West Bank.

Via Reuters

The Haaretz report suggests that a surge of additional soldiers will free up more forces to focus efforts on defeating Hamas in Gaza.

One of the areas of expected new operations is the town of Muwasi on the Gaza coast. Israel is claiming that it has become a safe haven for Hamas, and that militants are hiding in what has become a sprawling tent city of the internally displaced, and so has to be cleared of all Palestinians.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has meanwhile unleashed fresh controversy related to these expanded operations. He essentially admitted that the remaining hostages are not the country’s top priority, but the ultimate defeat of Hamas is.

“We have many objectives, many goals in this war. We want to bring back all of our hostages,” Netanyahu said. “That is a very important goal. In war, there is a supreme objective. And that supreme objective is victory over our enemies. And that is what we will achieve,” he added. He had issued the words at an Independence Day event in Jerusalem on Thursday.

This was enough to outrage families of the victims, who have been begging Israeli leaders to restart negotiations with Hamas, in hopes of brokering the freedom of the remaining captives.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum issued a response to these words of Netanyahu. “Prime minister, the return of the hostages is not ‘less’ important – it is the supreme goal that should guide the government of Israel,” a statement said. “The families of the hostages are concerned.”

As for the remaining captives, Netanyahu addressed this is the same remarks, saying “We want to bring all our hostages home. We’ve so far brought back 147 alive, and 196 total,” but that “There are another up to 24 alive, 59 total, and we want to return the living and the dead.”

Netanyahu’s description of goals in Gaza and what he prioritizes were echoed in prior remarks last week by hardline Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich in a CNN interview.

The war which has been on since the terror attacks of Oct.7, 2023 – has become deeply divisive among Israeli society:

Hundreds of Israelis walking in Tel Aviv tonight with photos of children killed in Gaza demanding to stop the attacks now. pic.twitter.com/XjDA9o6EIe

— Breaking the Silence (@BtSIsrael) April 26, 2025

“We need to tell the truth — bringing back the hostages is not the most important goal. It is, of course, a very, very, very, very important goal,” he began his comments. And there was a but…

“But anyone who wants to destroy Hamas and eliminate the possibility of another Oct. 7 must understand that in Gaza, there can’t be a situation where Hamas remains present and intact,” he emphasized.

It’s unknown how many hostages might still be alive. Family members worry that with each passing day and week, the chances of survival grow slim, also given the steady bombings and that it’s an active war zone, also with little food and medicines.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 13:00

US Files False-Claim Complaint Against Health Insurance Companies, Brokers

May 2, 2025 Ogghy Filed Under: THE NEWS, Zerohedge

US Files False-Claim Complaint Against Health Insurance Companies, Brokers

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice filed a complaint under the False Claims Act on May 1 against three health insurance companies and three large insurance brokerage organizations, alleging that hundreds of millions of dollars in kickbacks were paid by the insurance companies to the brokers in exchange for enrollments into their Medicare Advantage plans.

The insurer defendants are Aetna Inc., and its affiliates, Humana Inc., and Elevance Health Inc. (formerly known as Anthem). The broker defendants are eHealth Inc. and one of its affiliates, GoHealth Inc., and SelectQuote Inc. According to the complaint, the kickbacks were allegedly paid out from 2016 through at least 2021.

DOJ explained in a press release that the Medicare Advantage Program beneficiaries may choose to enroll in plans offered by private insurance companies, and many of those beneficiaries rely on brokers to help them choose the best plan to meet their needs.

“Rather than acting as unbiased stewards, the defendant brokers allegedly directed Medicare beneficiaries to the plans offered by insurers that paid brokers the most in kickbacks, regardless of the suitability of the MA plans for the beneficiaries,” the DOJ stated in its press release.

“According to the complaint, the broker organizations incentivized their employees and agents to sell plans based on the insurers’ kickbacks, set up teams of insurance agents who could sell only those plans, and at times refused to sell MA plans of insurers who did not pay sufficient kickbacks.”

DOJ also alleged that Humana and Aetna conspired with the brokers to discriminate against beneficiaries with disabilities deemed to be less profitable by allegedly threatening to withhold the kickbacks to the brokers.

“Health care companies that attempt to profit from kickbacks will be held accountable,” said Deputy Assistant Attorney General Michael Granston of the Justice Department’s Civil Division. 

“We are committed to rooting out illegal practices by Medicare Advantage insurers and insurance brokers that undermine the interests of federal health care programs and the patients they serve.”

The lawsuit was originally filed under whistleblower provisions under the False Claims Act, which permits the United States to intervene and take over the action.

“The alleged efforts to drive beneficiaries away specifically because their disabilities might make them less profitable to health insurance companies are even more unconscionable,” said U.S. Attorney Leah B. Foley for the District of Massachusetts.

“Profit and greed over beneficiary interest is something we will continue to investigate and prosecute aggressively. This office will continue to take decisive action to protect the rights of Medicare beneficiaries and vulnerable Americans.”

According to the complaint, violations of the False Claims Act carry mandatory civil penalties per claim, and three times the amount of the government’s damages sustained due to the defendant’s actions.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 12:40

S&P Erases All ‘Liberation Day’ Losses As Beijing Bends Knee, Mulls Fentanyl Offer To Trump

May 2, 2025 Ogghy Filed Under: THE NEWS, Zerohedge

S&P Erases All ‘Liberation Day’ Losses As Beijing Bends Knee, Mulls Fentanyl Offer To Trump

Update (1200ET): US equity markets extended gains this morning following a report from The Wall Street Journal that Beijing is considering ways to address the Trump administration’s gripes over China’s role in the fentanyl trade, potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start.

So, despite all the legacy media’s claims that ‘no’ talks were under way, WSJ reports that Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s security czar, Wang Xiaohong, in recent days has been inquiring about what the Trump team wants China to do when it comes to fentanyl.

In a visible shift in tone Friday, China’s Commerce Ministry said it was weighing starting talks with the U.S. to halt a trade war while expressing Beijing’s wish for the Trump administration to “show sincerity” to talk. Previously, the ministry had demanded that Washington slash its steep tariffs on China first as a condition for negotiations.

Stocks surged further on the report…

.

With the S&P 500 now having erased all losses post-Liberation Day…

* * *

China has quietly started to exempt some US goods from tariffs that likely cover around $40 billion worth of imports (or around 24% of Chinese imports from the US in 2024), in what looks like an effort to soften the blow of the trade war on its own economy. 

“China is likely trying to mitigate damage to its economy by avoiding a collapse in key imports,” DiPippo said. 

“The exemptions shouldn’t be interpreted as a signal to the US, as China has been quiet about its exemptions, working through business channels and avoiding public statements.”

While this move mirrors the shift by the Trump administration – exempting smartphones and other electronics from its own “reciprocal” tariffs, including the 145% levies on China (those US exemptions apply to about $102 billion, or roughly 22% of US imports from China last year) – we suspect there is more behind this decision.

As we highlighted just a week ago, China’s already fragile economy faced a serious crisis from the tariff-driven cuts to supply of US ethane and the potential for that to force mass plastics factory closures.

“The situation is dire for China’s ethane crackers as they have no alternative to US supply,” said Manish Sejwal, an analyst at Rystad Energy AS, using an industry term for such facilities.

 “Unless they are granted tariff exemptions, they may have to stop production or close shop.”

Well guess what just happened… buried deep among the 131 items is, you guessed it – industrial chemicals (which likely includes US Ethane supplies).

Bloomberg reports that it’s unclear where the list came from and it hasn’t been officially confirmed, but at least half a dozen companies in China have been able to bring in goods from the list without paying tariffs, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information.

No matter the reason – forced by factory closure crisis or simply goodwill – there are tentative signs the US-China trade standoff could be shifting. 

The Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Friday it’s assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US, giving a lift to equity markets.

“The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry said in a statement released during a mainland holiday. 

“China is currently evaluating this.”

The timing of the tit-for-tat escalation and de-escalation is very similar to last time (though this time the pain was far greater to prompt the walkbacks on both sides)…

The list of exemptions is said to be dynamic and will be continuously adjusted depending on China’s needs, according to people familiar with the matter.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 12:10

‘No Participation Trophies’: Trump Revamps Performance Reviews For Top Bureaucrats

May 2, 2025 Ogghy Filed Under: THE NEWS, Zerohedge

‘No Participation Trophies’: Trump Revamps Performance Reviews For Top Bureaucrats

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics,

Performance reviews are about to become much more difficult for the upper echelon of federal government employees.

The Trump administration will soon introduce rules to end what the Office of Personnel Management describes as an “everyone gets a trophy” culture permeating the federal workforce, RealClearPolitics is first to report.

The ranks of the Senior Executive Service, top bureaucrats serving throughout the government and across administrations, swelled to around 8,000 under President Biden. Most live in Washington, D.C. They typically earn an annual salary between $183,000 and $250,000. An overwhelming majority, 96%, according to an OPM memo, receive above-average performance ratings even as public trust in government continues to crater.

But standards will soon tighten. It is called “forced distribution.”

The new OPM rule limits the number of bureaucrats who can earn top ratings, a metric tied to promotions and end-of-the-year bonuses. It also eliminates Biden-era requirements that evaluated executives based on their promotion of diversity, equity, and inclusion.

The stated goal is instead an evaluation of job performance, not political ideology. Now only top performers, acting OPM director Chuck Ezell told RCP, will earn top performance rankings. 

“The American people deserve a federal government led by executives who are held to the highest standards,” Ezell said. “This proposed rule restores accountability, rewards true excellence, and ensures senior leaders deliver real results. OPM is proud to take this important step to strengthen performance among the highest levels of the federal workforce.”

The elite of career civil servants, these senior employees are normally little noticed and non-controversial. Permanent bureaucracy has come under attack during the Trump administration, however, and the White House sees the top ranks of federal employees as the face of the so-called “deep state.”

“There are no participation trophies,” a White House official said of the new standards, telling RCP that from now on, trophies, in this case top-tier performance rankings, “are for winners.”

The new standards come as Trump continues his long march through the administrative state. His administration has already implemented rules to gut civil service protections for government employees perceived as undermining the White House agenda. Thousands of federal workers have been fired. Entire government agencies, in some cases, shuttered.

Critics accuse the White House of trying to politicize the federal workforce and of trying to remake the executive agencies in Trump’s image. The Senior Executives Association, a trade group for federal employees with an office in downtown D.C., previously balked at proposed reforms. The head of that organization, Marcus Hill, insisted that top bureaucrats had earned their jobs through merit “based on demonstrated competence, character and capability in their fields of expertise.”

But the administration argues that change is needed because a sclerotic establishment is undermining self-government. This is the mission of Elon Musk and his team at the Department of Government Efficiency.

“If the bureaucracy is in charge, then what meaning does democracy actually have?” Musk asked earlier this year while fielding questions from reporters in the Oval Office.

“If the people cannot vote and have their will be decided by their elected representatives,” he said while standing behind the Resolute Desk next to the seated president, “then we don’t live in a democracy.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 12:00

European Union Continues Sabotaging Trump’s Ukraine Peace Efforts

May 2, 2025 Ogghy Filed Under: THE NEWS, Zerohedge

European Union Continues Sabotaging Trump’s Ukraine Peace Efforts

The European Union at this point seems much more open about its willingness to sabotage Trump efforts toward achieving peace in Ukraine. 

The EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas has told the Financial Times in a fresh interview this week that the bloc will not recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea under any circumstances. Really, this should be the most obvious and ‘easiest’ concession to make, but alas Brussels is saying no!

Kaja Kallas, via European Parliament 

The White House is seeking to pressure the Zelensky government to get to the negotiating table fast, and the quickest and easiest concession would be expected to center on letting go of Crimea, which Moscow declared part of the Russian Federation after a 2014 popular referendum.

“I can’t see that we are accepting these kind of things. But we can’t speak for America, of course, and what they will do,” Kallas said. “On the European side, we have said this over and over again… Crimea is Ukraine.”

“There are tools in the Americans’ hands that they can use to put the pressure on Russia to really stop this war,” Kallas continued. “President Trump has said that he wants the killing to stop. He should put the pressure on the one who is doing the killing.”

This has basically been the Ukrainian government’s position all along as well. For this reason, she said Brussels and other European capitals are still focused on “working with the Americans and trying to convince them why the outcome of this war is also in their interest, that Russia doesn’t really get everything that it wants.” But again, Crimea should be the easiest issue.

On the question of the scenario where Washington successfully resets relations with Moscow and eventually withdraws arms and intelligence support for Kiev, she said:

“It is clear that these types of discussions are going on in certain member states and maybe hopes that we don’t really have to support [Ukraine] any more,” said Kallas, the former Estonian prime minister. “But it’s also a false hope, because if you look at Russia, that is investing more than 9 per cent of its GDP on the military, they will want to use it again.”

Currently the US is reportedly seeking to convince Kiev and Europe of a de jure recognition of Russia’s control over Crimea and de facto recognition of Russian areas of control in eastern Ukraine, based on a ‘freeze’ of battle lines.

Trump presidential special envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg told Fox News this week that Ukraine is ready to make territorial concessions, but wouldn’t consider any ceded territory as a permanent situation. 

“Not de jure forever, but de facto, because the Russians actually occupy that and they’ve agreed to that. They know that if they have a ceasefire in place, which means you sit on the ground that you currently hold, that’s what they’re willing to go to,” Kellog said. “You have your line set, and they’re willing to go there,” Kellogg emphasized. 

But it’s clear the Kremlin sees this as an issue of sovereignty and permanence, given President Putin has described the four annexed territories and Crimea as “ours forever”.

Zelensky has lately reiterated to reporters on the question of giving up Crimea, “There is nothing to talk about. This violates our Constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine.”

This was after late last month Vice President JD Vance made clear, “We’ve issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians, and it’s time for them to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process.”

Kaja Kallas, the grossly inept “Diplomatic Chief” of the EU lies through her teeth in Munich

She suggests Russian civilians haven’t died in Donbass, Crimea, Belgorod, and Kursk. Thousands have.

The fact that EU and NATO cash / weapons have done the killing demands she lies pic.twitter.com/apwFAkKvpC

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) February 16, 2025

“The only way to really stop the killing is for the armies to both put down their weapons, to freeze this thing and to get on with the business of actually building a better Russia and a better Ukraine,” he said in April while traveling overseas to Asia.

It goes without saying that freezing the war now would certainly give Russian forces a huge advantage, given the immense territory in the East they now hold – and this seem precisely what Kiev and Europe are unwilling to accept.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 11:40

Two Americans Charged In Operating International Child Exploitation Ring

May 2, 2025 Ogghy Filed Under: THE NEWS, Zerohedge

Two Americans Charged In Operating International Child Exploitation Ring

Authored by Rachel Acenas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Two leaders of a child exploitation network known as 764 have been arrested, federal officials announced on Wednesday.

764 leader Prasan Nepal in a booking photo. Courtesy of Guilford County Sheriff’s Office

Prasan Nepal, 20, of High Point, North Carolina, was arrested on April 22 in North Carolina. Leonidas Varagiannis, 21, was arrested on April 29 in Greece on an international warrant.

Both defendants face charges of operating an international child exploitation enterprise, marking a major takedown of an operation that targets innocent children, according to FBI Director Kash Patel.

“This is a significant case in our renewed mission to crack down on child sexual exploitation and abuse—heinous crimes that no child or parent should ever be faced with,” Patel said on Wednesday in a statement on social media platform X.

The defendants allegedly recruited others to exploit children and coordinated the operation through encrypted messaging apps.

Varagiannis has denied the allegations. He appeared in court on Wednesday before an appellate prosecutor and opposed extradition, according to Greek judicial authorities and his lawyer.

“Throughout the period during which the alleged offenses took place, he was residing in Greece. Therefore, Greek law and courts have jurisdiction over the case, and his extradition is explicitly prohibited,” his lawyer Xanthippi Moysidou said.

Nepal is currently in the Guilford County, North Carolina, jail on a federal hold and has a public defender.

Federal prosecutors allege the two men targeted children as young as 13 years old from late 2020 through early 2025 across multiple jurisdictions through the 764 criminal enterprise.

764 is a network of online groups that “methodically target and exploit minors and other vulnerable individuals,” according to a public service announcement posted by the FBI on March 6.

“These networks use threats, blackmail, and manipulation to coerce or extort victims into producing, sharing, or live-streaming acts of self-harm, animal cruelty, sexually explicit acts, and/or suicide,” the FBI said.

The material is used as leverage to force victims to perform acts of violence and even self-harm. The network also engages in swatting and harassment to silence its victims.

A criminal complaint unsealed on Wednesday in the District of Columbia shows examples of online manuals used by the defendants to instruct others on how to groom and extort minors. The guides taught others specifically how to target vulnerable children online, according to the affidavit, and ultimately coerced and threatened them into creating degrading content.

‘The allegations in this case are not only disturbing, they are also every parent’s nightmare,’ U.S. Attorney Edward R. Martin Jr. said in a Department of Justice statement on April 29.

The case was brought as part of Project Safe Childhood, a nationwide initiative to combat the epidemic of child sexual exploitation and abuse. The DOJ launched the initiative in May 2006.

The initiative utilizes federal, state, and local resources to locate, arrest, and prosecute those who exploit children through the internet. It also aims to identify and rescue victims.

Attorney General Pam Bondi on Wednesday called for swift justice in the case.

“These defendants are accused of orchestrating one of the most heinous online child exploitation enterprises we have ever encountered—a network built on terror, abuse, and the deliberate targeting of children,” Bondi said in a statement. “We will find those who exploit and abuse children, prosecute them, and dismantle every part of their operation.”

Varagiannis will remain in custody until a court of appeals rules on the U.S. extradition request.

If convicted, both defendants face a maximum penalty of life in prison.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

From NTD News

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 11:20

Native-Born Workers Surge By Over 1 Million, Back To All-Time High, As Govt Employees Tumble

May 2, 2025 Ogghy Filed Under: THE NEWS, Zerohedge

Native-Born Workers Surge By Over 1 Million, Back To All-Time High, As Govt Employees Tumble

For much of the past 4 years we dutifully reported, month after month, how the US labor market under the Biden administration “grew” almost entirely on the back of “foreign-born” workers, who – as we also first revealed and eventually was widely accepted – were primarily illegal aliens:

  • Great Replacement Job Shock: 1.3 Million Native-Born Americans Just Lost Their Jobs, Replaced By 635,000 Immigrants: Sept 2024
  • Wall Street Admits The Biggest Economic Shocker: All Jobs In The Past Year Have Gone To Illegal Aliens: June, 2024
  • Stunning statistic: there has been ZERO INCREASE  in jobs for native-born workers in over five years, since July 2018!: Jan 2024

More importantly, as we predicted at the start of 2024…

How is this not the biggest political talking point right now: since October 2019, native-born US workers have lost 1.4 million jobs; over the same period foreign-born workers have gained 3 million jobs. pic.twitter.com/Z5HVWmQ24C

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 15, 2024

… the composition of the labor market would become one of the biggest political talking points, one which was hammered constantly by Trump in his political rallies and during his debate with Biden.

We bring this up because deep inside today’s jobs report we got the best news yet: after literally flatlining in late 2019, having plunged during covid and barely recovering to its pre-covid levels, the number of native born workers is now back to its all time high, 132.228 million.

That’s because in April, the number of native-born workers surged by just over 1 million, from 131.186 million to 132.228 million. Meanwhile, the number of foreign-born workers – who as we explained previously were mostly undocumented, or illegal, aliens – dropped by 410K from a record 32.225 million.

Or, as so many people have already said, this is what a majority of Americans voted for.

Actually, they voted for something else too: after hitting a record high in December, the last month of Biden’s admin, the number of Federal government employees has declined for 4 consecutive months to the lowest level in over a year. Thank you DOGE.

So while there has been pain, and there will be a lot more pain, America is finally returning to some semblance of a long-term viable trendline.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 11:00

German Spy Agency Formally Classifies AfD Party As “Right-Wing Extremist”, Same Week As They Top Polls

May 2, 2025 Ogghy Filed Under: THE NEWS, Zerohedge

German Spy Agency Formally Classifies AfD Party As “Right-Wing Extremist”, Same Week As They Top Polls

Probably just a coincidence…

Just days after Germany’s ‘Alternative fur Deutschland’ (AfD) party topped the polls…

Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has formally classified the party as a right-wing extremist movement, granting authorities enhanced powers to monitor the party as a potential threat to democracy, due to the “extremist character of the entire party.”

As Reuters reports, the BfV agency’s finding, based on a 1,100-page expert report, that the AfD is racist and anti-Muslim allows the authorities to increase surveillance of the party, including by recruiting confidential informants and intercepting communications.

“Key to our assessment is the AfD’s ethnic-based understanding of the people, which devalues ​​entire population groups in Germany and violates their human dignity,” they added.

“This is reflected in the party’s overall anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim stance.”

The AfD has “defamed and vilified” individuals and groups, stirring up “irrational fears and hostility toward them,” it added.

Here’s the image that Reuters chose to run alongside this story…

As Remix News reports, one of the key factors that the BfV is attempting to use to justify the designation is the AfD’s alleged position on “ethnic Germans.”

“The ethnic-descendant understanding of the people prevailing in the party is not compatible with the free democratic basic order,” reads the statement from the BfV. 

“The AfD, for example, does not consider German citizens with a migration history from predominantly Muslim countries to be equal members of the German people, as ethnically defined by the party.”

The BfV, which has been led by a Christian Democrat for years who was rabidly opposed to the AfD, a rival party, further writes: 

“The BfV reached this conclusion after an intensive and comprehensive expert review. Following its statutory mandate, the BfV was required to assess the party’s actions against the central fundamental principles of the constitution: human dignity, the principle of democracy, and the rule of law. In doing so, in addition to the federal party’s platform and statements, the statements and other behavior of its representatives, as well as their connections to right-wing extremist actors and groups, were examined in particular.”

The BfV is no longer led by Thomas Haldenwang (CDU), but here he is discussing the AfD during his tenure. Haldenwang gave up his position to run as an MP but he lost his seat.

🇩🇪❌Will Germany’s AfD party be banned?@Dieter_Stein, the editor-in-chief of @Junge_Freiheit, discusses how the German establishment’s strategy is designed to create a toxic atmosphere around the anti-immigration AfD party, with Stein describing it as a “war of attrition.” pic.twitter.com/KV54nHKl57

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) May 6, 2024

In the party’s first response to the report, the leader of a regional parliamentary group, Anton Baron, said:

“It is sad to see the state of democracy in our country when the established parties now resort to the most politically questionable means to act against the strongest opposition party.”

The outgoing Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has called the assessment “clear and unambiguous” and insisted that the agency operates independently, 

“There was no political influence whatsoever on the new report,” she added. 

“The new assessment will certainly be subject to judicial review as well. In a constitutional state, independent courts ultimately make the decisions.”

The AfD has denounced the move as a “severe blow to German democracy” and vowed that the party “will continue to defend itself legally against these defamatory statements.”

“The AfD, as an opposition party, is being publicly discredited and criminalized shortly before the change of government,” AfD co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla said in a joint statement.

“The associated, targeted interference in the democratic decision-making process is therefore clearly politically motivated.”

The classification could reignite attempts to get the AfD banned, but Germany’s outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose Social Democrats will be the junior partner in Merz’s new coalition, advised against rushing to outlaw the AfD.

“I am against a quick shot, we have to evaluate the classification carefully,” he said on Friday at a church convention in the northern city of Hanover.

Additionally, the intelligence decision comes days before conservative leader Friedrich Merz is due to be sworn in as Germany’s new chancellor and amid a heated debate within his party over how to deal with the AfD in the new parliament.

Previous attempts to ban the far-right NPD, which took some notably extremist stances, were unsuccessful, with the top court arguing that the party was not large enough to represent a serious threat to the democratic order. 

There were also questions about the excessive number of informants, making it difficult to ascertain how much of the extremism in the party was due to informants versus the party’s own members.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/02/2025 – 10:40

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