Zerohedge

Probably just a coincidence…

Just days after Germany’s ‘Alternative fur Deutschland’ (AfD) party topped the polls…

Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has formally classified the party as a right-wing extremist movement, granting authorities enhanced powers to monitor the party as a potential threat to democracy, due to the “extremist character of the entire party.”

As Reuters reports, the BfV agency’s finding, based on a 1,100-page expert report, that the AfD is racist and anti-Muslim allows the authorities to increase surveillance of the party, including by recruiting confidential informants and intercepting communications.

“Key to our assessment is the AfD’s ethnic-based understanding of the people, which devalues ​​entire population groups in Germany and violates their human dignity,” they added.

“This is reflected in the party’s overall anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim stance.”

The AfD has “defamed and vilified” individuals and groups, stirring up “irrational fears and hostility toward them,” it added.

Here’s the image that Reuters chose to run alongside this story…

As Remix News reports, one of the key factors that the BfV is attempting to use to justify the designation is the AfD’s alleged position on “ethnic Germans.”

“The ethnic-descendant understanding of the people prevailing in the party is not compatible with the free democratic basic order,” reads the statement from the BfV. 

“The AfD, for example, does not consider German citizens with a migration history from predominantly Muslim countries to be equal members of the German people, as ethnically defined by the party.”

The BfV, which has been led by a Christian Democrat for years who was rabidly opposed to the AfD, a rival party, further writes: 

“The BfV reached this conclusion after an intensive and comprehensive expert review. Following its statutory mandate, the BfV was required to assess the party’s actions against the central fundamental principles of the constitution: human dignity, the principle of democracy, and the rule of law. In doing so, in addition to the federal party’s platform and statements, the statements and other behavior of its representatives, as well as their connections to right-wing extremist actors and groups, were examined in particular.”

The BfV is no longer led by Thomas Haldenwang (CDU), but here he is discussing the AfD during his tenure. Haldenwang gave up his position to run as an MP but he lost his seat.

🇩🇪❌Will Germany’s AfD party be banned?@Dieter_Stein, the editor-in-chief of @Junge_Freiheit, discusses how the German establishment’s strategy is designed to create a toxic atmosphere around the anti-immigration AfD party, with Stein describing it as a “war of attrition.” pic.twitter.com/KV54nHKl57

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) May 6, 2024

In the party’s first response to the report, the leader of a regional parliamentary group, Anton Baron, said:

“It is sad to see the state of democracy in our country when the established parties now resort to the most politically questionable means to act against the strongest opposition party.”

The outgoing Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has called the assessment “clear and unambiguous” and insisted that the agency operates independently, 

“There was no political influence whatsoever on the new report,” she added. 

“The new assessment will certainly be subject to judicial review as well. In a constitutional state, independent courts ultimately make the decisions.”

The AfD has denounced the move as a “severe blow to German democracy” and vowed that the party “will continue to defend itself legally against these defamatory statements.”

“The AfD, as an opposition party, is being publicly discredited and criminalized shortly before the change of government,” AfD co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla said in a joint statement.

“The associated, targeted interference in the democratic decision-making process is therefore clearly politically motivated.”

The classification could reignite attempts to get the AfD banned, but Germany’s outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose Social Democrats will be the junior partner in Merz’s new coalition, advised against rushing to outlaw the AfD.

“I am against a quick shot, we have to evaluate the classification carefully,” he said on Friday at a church convention in the northern city of Hanover.

Additionally, the intelligence decision comes days before conservative leader Friedrich Merz is due to be sworn in as Germany’s new chancellor and amid a heated debate within his party over how to deal with the AfD in the new parliament.

Previous attempts to ban the far-right NPD, which took some notably extremist stances, were unsuccessful, with the top court arguing that the party was not large enough to represent a serious threat to the democratic order. 

There were also questions about the excessive number of informants, making it difficult to ascertain how much of the extremism in the party was due to informants versus the party’s own members.

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Newly unearthed emails confirm what the Biden administration had repeatedly denied: It was heavily involved in the 2022 prosecution of Trump trade counselor Peter Navarro…

The emails, released Thursday and obtained by Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, showed that the DOJ approved then-U.S. Attorney Matt Graves’s decision to indict Navarro on two contempt of Congress charges, despite the left and legacy media’s claims of independence. 

Navarro, one of the top officials in the first Trump White House, had challenged the Jan. 6 Committee’s overreach by invoking executive privilege in refusing to comply with their subpoenas. 

It appears the Biden DOJ wanted to make an example of Navarro.

In one email dated May 19, 2022—just days before Navarro was indicted—FBI Special Agent Walter Giardina wrote to fellow agents about instructions from the U.S. attorney for D.C., after the latter’s consultation “with main Justice.” 

The email read, “I just spoke with DC USAO, after consultation with main Justice, they are not intending to prosecute Meadows or Scavino. This decision is based on their White House positions and prior DOJ opinions. .. We have been told to cease work on those case. [sic]” 

Signaling the government’s intent to go after Navarro, the email continued, “They would like to charge Navarro in the next two weeks however.” 

NEW: Emails obtained by Sen Grassley demonstrate the collusion between Biden DOJ, DC US Attorney Matt Graves, and Washington FBI to pursue an indictment and schedule the arrest of Peter Navarro in 2022.

“After consultation with main Justice.” And I believe ‘Molly” is Molly… pic.twitter.com/lWy9mvQMvy

— Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 (@julie_kelly2) May 1, 2025

Giardina then ordered agents to “locate” Navarro, obtain a subpoena return from Verizon, issue a preservation letter to Apple, prepare a search warrant for his phone and iCloud account, conduct a “knock and talk interview” and serve a phone search warrant after the interview. 

The emails highlight the harrowing treatment of Navarro, who served as director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy from 2017 to 2021. 

He became the subject of a federal investigation under the Biden administration after he argued that his role in the battle for election integrity after the 2020 election was protected by executive privilege and was not subject to congressional subpoenas. 

A grand jury returned the indictment in 2022. He was convicted two years later and sentenced to four months in prison—a sentence he called a “death sentence” at age 75. 

Navarro is currently appealing his conviction in federal court. 

Trump appointed Navarro as his senior counselor for trade and manufacturing after the 2024 presidential election. 

 

While Apple’s Tim Cook was adamant on the call last night that he had seen no ‘pull forward’ of demand due to the tariffs, it seems every other firm in the US did as Durable Goods Orders soared in March (final print this morning at +9.2% MoM)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, Core Durable Goods (ex Transports) was unchanged MoM – suggesting considerable front-running of tariffs for planes and autos…

Source: Bloomberg

US Factory Orders rose 4.3% MoM (slightly less than the +4.5% expected) – a big jump

Source: Bloomberg

And like with Durable Goods, Core Factory orders (ex Transports) actually fell 0.2% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in orders was largely driven by a 139% MoM spike in non-defense aircraft and parts…

Source: Bloomberg

Which pushed total orders to a new all-time record-high…

Source: Bloomberg

The question is – what happens in April – post Liberation Day?

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Here’s The Beef (and more)

We’re kicking off our Rancher-Direct program with four independent ranches, along with a NYC-based beef tallow skincare company that sources directly from Redbanks Beef Farm in Virginia.

Ebersole Cattle Co. – Iowa

Located just outside of Kellerton, Iowa, the Ebersoles have been in business since 1998 and specialize in Regenerative Ranching. Their meat is 100% Grass-Fed and Grass Finished, uses no hormones, antibiotics, or mRNA vaccines.

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• Rancher’s Favorites Box – Beef, Pork & Seasonally available Lamb & Whole Chickens. Comes with 2-4 steaks, 3-5 lbs ground meat (beef, sausage or pork – rancher’s choice), and 1lb of thick-cut bacon.

Legacy Ranch – Illinois

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Check out their;

• Wagyu Cattleman’s Bundle (15-16 lbs): 1 Ribeye steak, 1 NY Strip steak, 1 Filet Mignon, 1lb of fajita meat, 2-3 lbs of Chuck Roast, 5lb of Ground Beef, 3 burger patties, 4 Brats, and 4 Wagyu Snack Sticks (original, teriyaki, sweet heat, BBQ)

• Wagyu Snack Sticks; Shelf stable and packed with protein!

Beck Ranch – Wyoming

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Check out their;

• Grassfed Ancestral Beef; 90% beef, 7% liver, 3% heart

• Steak Lover’s Bundle; 2 Filet Mignon steaks | 2 Ribeye or Rib Steaks Steaks | 2 Baseball or Ponderosa Steaks | 2 New York Strip Steaks | 2 Top Sirloin Steaks

Miller Bison – Nevada

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Check out their;

• Complete Bison Box; 2-4 steaks (Rancher’s choice of: Ribeye, Tenderloin, NY Strip, Top Sirloin, Flat Iron, Skirt and more), 2-3 lbs slow-cook cuts (roasts, short ribs, stew meat), and 4-6 lbs of Ground Bison. 

• Carnivore Bison Stick Pack; four flavors to choose from!

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Check out their;

• Cattleman’s Skincare Collection; Sandalwood Body Butter (4oz), Sandalwood Tallow Soap Bar (4.5oz), Sweet Almond Body Butter (2.5oz), Coconut Vanilla Lip Balm (.3oz)

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The woke liberal elites, perched high in their Harvard University ivory towers in Cambridge, Massachusetts, have been plotted at extreme levels on the “F*ck Around and Find Out” (FAFO) chart, which illustrates their relationship between taking risks (“f*ck around”) and facing consequences (“find out”) in response to President Trump’s simple request to dismantle the toxic framework of diversity, equity, and inclusion on campus. 

The standoff between President Trump and woke elites deepened on Friday morning after the president wrote on Truth Social: “We are going to be taking away Harvard’s Tax Exempt Status. It’s what they deserve!” 

On Wednesday, President Trump suggested to U.S. Education Secretary Linda McMahon that the federal government may stop giving the far-left university grants: “And it looks like we are not going to be giving them any more grants, right Linda?”

The president has launched a formal review into the $9 billion in federal funding for the university. He demanded the university end DEI and crack down on anti-Semitic protests fueled by pro-Palestinian groups. 

F*ck Around:

• “Will Not Surrender” – Harvard Snubs Trump Admin’s Demands Tied To $9 Billion Funding

Find Out:

• Trump Threatens Harvard’s Tax-Exempt Status Amid Federal Funding Freeze

Last week, the president asked the Internal Revenue Service to revoke Harvard University’s tax-exempt status. The Ivy League school’s failure to wind down woke and toxic liberal agendas that undermine the nation has left it at the end phase of FAFO. 

On Thursday night, Trump told students in his commencement address at the University of Alabama: “The next chapter of the American story will not be written by the Harvard Crimson. It will be written by you, the Crimson Tide.”

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

The headline data for NFP was much stronger than expected at 177k.

That doesn’t match well with JOLTS which has been indicating weaker conditions (and it is an extra month behind), and it doesn’t tie in with ADP which was a very weak 62k.

Downward revisions of 58k take some of the umph out of the report.

The Household part of the survey (which drives the Unemployment rate) added 305k Full-time jobs and 56k in Part-time jobs (which helped the underemployment rate drop to 7.8% from 7.9%). The unemployment rate of 4.2%, while unchanged, is impressive as the labor force increased by 0.1% to 62.6%.

It was also encouraging that hourly earnings came in a 0.2% for the month (healthy but not inflationary) and hours worked, often a precursor for more hiring, was 34.3 hours this month and was revised up to that figure for last month as well.

The Birth/Death model accounted for 393,000 jobs!

Apparently, in the face of economic uncertainty, a lot of new businesses were started?  

That was the biggest number since 2023! The prior 5 months had averaged -10k.

It is a bit “disturbing” (to me) that a number that is derived from estimations plays such an outsized role in the report.

126,000 professional/business services jobs were created? I guess a lot of people set up businesses to help with taxes?

What are the odds that a lot of people signed up EIN’s (Employer Identification Number) so they could do something in the gig economy?

I am highly suspicious of the accuracy of this number, but, unfortunately, policy makers seem to take it at face value, only to ignore it, when it is eventually reduced significantly, during annual or quarterly reviews.

Any Risks?

Weirdly, I see some risks from this report.

• Policy will be made based on the strength of the report, which, after revisions and expressing any doubt whatsoever about the birth/death model additions, wasn’t so great.

• The Fed has been given ammunition to remain hawkish next week. Had we been under 100k, there would have been reason to expect a very dovish Fed, and maybe even a rate cut.

• The biggest risk, as I see it, is this encourages the administration to be more aggressive on their tariff strategy, as this could be taken as an indication that their tariff strategy is working and is creating jobs (though 1k was lost in manufacturing). Given how the market responded overnight to news that China would be open to talks, any double down on tariffs (rather than deal making and backtracking) would not be great.

Bottom Line

Not good for bonds, pushes the Fed put further away… [ZH: June rate-cut expectations plunged]

Should be decent for risk, but risk will remain primarily driven by tariffs, trade deals and the big spending bill…

…all of which will determine the direction of the economy for months or even years.

China has quietly started to exempt some US goods from tariffs that likely cover around $40 billion worth of imports (or around 24% of Chinese imports from the US in 2024), in what looks like an effort to soften the blow of the trade war on its own economy. 

“China is likely trying to mitigate damage to its economy by avoiding a collapse in key imports,” DiPippo said. 

“The exemptions shouldn’t be interpreted as a signal to the US, as China has been quiet about its exemptions, working through business channels and avoiding public statements.”

While this move mirrors the shift by the Trump administration – exempting smartphones and other electronics from its own “reciprocal” tariffs, including the 145% levies on China (those US exemptions apply to about $102 billion, or roughly 22% of US imports from China last year) – we suspect there is more behind this decision.

As we highlighted just a week ago, China’s already fragile economy faced a serious crisis from the tariff-driven cuts to supply of US ethane and the potential for that to force mass plastics factory closures.

“The situation is dire for China’s ethane crackers as they have no alternative to US supply,” said Manish Sejwal, an analyst at Rystad Energy AS, using an industry term for such facilities.

 “Unless they are granted tariff exemptions, they may have to stop production or close shop.”

Well guess what just happened… buried deep among the 131 items is, you guessed it – industrial chemicals (which likely includes US Ethane supplies).

Bloomberg reports that it’s unclear where the list came from and it hasn’t been officially confirmed, but at least half a dozen companies in China have been able to bring in goods from the list without paying tariffs, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information.

No matter the reason – forced by factory closure crisis or simply goodwill – there are tentative signs the US-China trade standoff could be shifting. 

The Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Friday it’s assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US, giving a lift to equity markets.

“The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry said in a statement released during a mainland holiday. 

“China is currently evaluating this.”

The timing of the tit-for-tat escalation and de-escalation is very similar to last time (though this time the pain was far greater to prompt the walkbacks on both sides)…

The list of exemptions is said to be dynamic and will be continuously adjusted depending on China’s needs, according to people familiar with the matter.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Recently unsealed court documents have revealed that Ryan Routh, the guy who tried to assassinate President Trump at his own golf course, was trying to smuggle Afghans into the US over the southern border.

The documents contain texts sent by Routh to a human smuggler known as “Ramiro” in Mexico, with the Department of Justice alleging that the communications reveal Routh’s involvement in efforts to transport an Afghan family from Amecameca, a city south of Mexico City, to Eagle Pass, Texas. 

In the WhatsApp messages, Routh wrote “This is a humanitarian mission dude, I can pay 500 or 1000 to drive them to Eagle Pass; this family needs help.”

As reported by Headline USA’s Ken Silva, the trafficker demanded more money to facilitate the crime, reasoning that the family’s complete lack of legal documents would make it much more difficult.

The smuggler also suggested that police bribes would be necessary and quoted a fee of $1,800 per person. 

Routh replied, “That is way too expensive just to take them to the border. It is like a one day drive.”

🚨NEW: Last night, the DOJ released texts between Ryan Routh and the Mexican human smuggler about smuggling Afghans into the U.S.
These texts show that the smuggler was going to drop the Afghans off at the border and have them apply for asylum. They even discussed the possibility… https://t.co/NsTcf8uzWJ pic.twitter.com/eoqsquchgs

— Ken Silva (@JD_Cashless) April 29, 2025

Perhaps even more disturbing and telling is the fact that “Ramiro” then suggested the family could enter the U.S. by posing as asylum seekers at the border. 

Routh said he understood the people could likely illegally cross at Eagle Pass and still be granted a future court date, and allowed to stay in the US.

The pair then even ruminated on the possibility of flying the migrants into the country if they were accepted into an asylum program.

Routh’s defense attorneys are fighting to keep the communications out of his trial after he pleaded not guilty of attempted assassination of a presidential candidate, arguing that the texts are unrelated and may unfairly prejudice the jury.

Routh is facing life in prison or the death penalty.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

US equity futures gained ahead of the April Payolls report, but were well of their highs, after China said it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US, the first sign that negotiations could begin between the two sides since Donald Trump hiked tariffs last month. As of 8:10am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4% while Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.2%, limited by weakness in the tech sector as Apple and Amazon.com shares fall in premarket after their respective updates appeared to underwhelm investors. If the S&P 500 closes in the green on Friday, it would mark a ninth day of gains, the longest winning streak for the US benchmark since November 2004. Asian markets were also broadly higher and Europe’s Estoxx 50 advances 1.5% in early London session, with risk sentiment stoked after China hinted at the possibility of trade talks. Bond yields are unchanged, reversing an earlier drop, oil and USD are both lower, while gold rebounds +0.7% from recent losses. Today, all eyes on NFP at 8.30am ET to assess market sentiment; Consensus expects a 138k print vs. 228k prior and the Unemployment Rate to hold at 4.2% (more in the full preview here).

In premarket trading, Apple falls 3% after the iPhone maker reported China sales that were disappointing, and warned about the impact of tariffs. Amazon.com slips 0.5% after the e-commerce and cloud-computing company gave a weaker-than-expected outlook for operating income as tariff uncertainties weigh. Here are the other Mag7s: Alphabet +0.8%, Meta +1%, Nvidia +1.1%, Microsoft +0.3%, Tesla +0.4%. US-listed Chinese stocks rise as Beijing says its assessing the possibility of trade talks with America (Alibaba (BABA) +3%, Baidu (BIDU) +2%, NetEase (NTES) +1.3%). Airbnb (ABNB) fell 5% after issuing a weak outlook for the second quarter, citing economic uncertainties for softer travel demand in the US. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Ardelyx (ARDX) drops 17% after the biotech firm’s first-quarter revenue missed estimates,
• Atlassian (TEAM) sinks 17% after the software company gave an outlook that analysts are cautious about, although Barclays questioned the scale of the stock’s drop.
• Block (XYZ) sinks 21% after the financial services and digital payments company cut its adjusted operating income guidance for the full year.
• Chevron Corp. (CVX) slips 2% as the company will reduce share buybacks this quarter after oil prices tumbled.
• Cytokinetics (CYTK) falls 11% after the drug developer said US regulators need more time to review a safety plan for the company’s experimental heart drug aficamten.
• Duolingo (DUOL) gains 8% after raising its full-year sales and profit outlook as artificial intelligence offerings drive users to its higher-priced subscriptions.
• Exact Sciences (EXAS) gains 11% after the maker of the Cologuard cancer test boosted its revenue and adjusted Ebitda forecasts for the full year following a largely better-than-expected first quarter.
• Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) climbs about 1% after the company met earnings estimates due to higher production from low-cost projects, allowing it to maintain its share buybacks despite the recent drop in crude prices.
• Ingersoll Rand (IR), a company that makes equipment designed to control the flow of energy such as air and gas compressors, falls 4% after the reducing its full year adjusted Ebitda forecast.
• LendingTree (TREE) declines 13% after the online loan marketplace cut its revenue guidance for the full year. The company also trimmed the upper end of its forecast range for year adjusted Ebitda.
• Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) declines 15% after announcing a delay in the release date of Grand Theft Auto VI.
• Twilio (TWLO) rises 8% after the communications software firm boosted some fiscal year forecasts.
• Reddit (RDDT) rises 8% after the social-networking company gave a second-quarter forecast that beat expectations.

Optimism is steadily fueling an equity comeback. If the S&P 500 closes in the green on Friday, it would mark the longest winning streak for the US benchmark since November 2004. Indeed, investors are now betting on a more market-friendly stance from President Donald Trump in the coming months, and fears about a US recession could diminish further if Friday’s key jobs report shows resilience, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett. 

“It seems we may have reached peak policy uncertainty,” said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac in Paris. “There are talks ongoing, and Trump seems to have watered down some of his policies. If you add in that the earnings season has been fairly positive, the overall backdrop isn’t that bad.”

Even so, bets are rising the Federal Reserve will be forced to accelerate interest rate cuts to head off an economic slowdown.  Money markets are pricing in almost four quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, one more than was anticipated before Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2.

Meanwhile, economists expect the jobs report to show only 138,000 new positions added in April after the data blew away expectations in March. The surveys behind the report were conducted the second week of April, when Trump put some levies on hold and sharply raised those on China goods (full preview here).

European stocks followed their Asian counterparts higher The Stoxx 600 is up 0.8%, led by gains in mining, technology and construction names. Utilities underperform.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• ING shares rise as much as 5.7% as analysts welcome the Dutch bank’s ‘solid’ first-quarter results and net profit beat, while warning the increase to CET1 guidance by year end may disappoint investors.
• Shell shares rise as much as 4.4% in London after the oil major’s first-quarter profit beat expectations, and it announced a $3.5 billion buyback.
• Commodity stocks are outperforming in Europe on Friday as oil and metal prices got a boost after China said it was evaluating having trade talks with the US, raising optimism that negotiations could reduce tariffs between the two largest economies.
• NatWest shares rose as much as 4.5%, hitting their highest level since 2011, after the UK bank delivered a profit beat to mark a “strong start” to 2025, according to RBC Capital Markets.
• Danske Bank shares rise as much as 3.9% after reporting pretax profits that beat estimates, driven by better-than-expected net interest income and fee income.
• SSP Group shares rise as much as 7.4% after a Financial Times report issued after the close on Thursday said activist investor Irenic Capital Management is building a stake in the catering and food concession company and plans to push management to boost profitability.
• Atalaya Mining shares jump as much as 6.6%, hitting their highest level since early October, after it was confirmed the copper-focused firm will join the FTSE 250.
• Colruyt shares fall as much as 19%, the steepest drop since September 2022, after the Belgian retailer cut its full-year guidance, citing stronger competition in the domestic market and lower-than-anticipated food inflation.
• Landis + Gyr shares fall as much as 8.2% after the Swiss energy management firm reported 2024 results that Vontobel analysts say were below expectations and cut its dividend.
• BASF shares fall as much as 3.3% after the German chemicals firm said uncertainty caused by US trade tactics means it can’t make reliable predictions for its business this year.

Earlier, Asian stocks surged to their highest level more than five weeks in broader regional rally after China said it was mulling trade talks with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.8% to the highest since March 25, with TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest boosts. The key regional gauge is on track for a third-straight week of gains in the rebound from Donald Trump’s tariff offensive. Taiwan’s benchmark advanced more than 2% Friday, leading gains around the region as many markets reopened after holidays. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed more than 1% after China’s Commerce Ministry said it was assessing the possibility of trade talks with the Washington, the first sign since Trump hiked tariffs last month that negotiations could begin. Mainland markets remain shut. Australia and Singapore are gearing up for federal elections to be held on Saturday, with cost-of-living issues top of mind for voters in both nations. Australian stocks rose for a seventh straight day ahead of the vote, while shares were higher in Singapore on Friday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.4%. The Aussie dollar and Swedish krona are leading gains against the greenback. EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.1329; GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3229

In rates, treasuries are flat ahead of the US jobs report, as 10-year yields reverse a 2 bpsdrop to trade flat at 4.22%. Gilts outperform, with UK 10-year yields falling 7 bps to 4.41%. Bunds fall, with little reaction shown to euro-area CPI which rose slightly more than expected in April.

In commodities, oil prices decline as traders weigh the possibility of US-China trade talks and a fresh sanctions threat against Iranian flows against a potential supply hike from OPEC+. WTI falls 0.8% to $58.80 a barrel.  Spot gold rises $22 to around $3,260/oz. Bitcoin edges up 0.3% toward $97,000.

Looking at today’s calendar, the highlight is April jobs report (8:30am), and March factory orders and durable goods orders (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.9%
• DAX +1.5%
• CAC 40 +1.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.2%
• VIX -0.5 points at 24.08
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.4% at 1224.77
• euro +0.3% at $1.1328
• WTI crude -0.8% at $58.74/barrel

Top Overnight News

• China said Friday it was weighing starting talks with the U.S. to halt a trade war, but only if Washington shows sincerity through concrete measures such as by canceling tariffs against Beijing. WSJ
• China has started to exempt some goods from tariffs that may cover about $40 billion, or a quarter of its imports from the US, to soften the blow of the trade war on its own economy. BBG
• Japan’s chief negotiator expressed hopes of reaching a trade agreement with the US in June, even as a media report indicated the two sides remained at odds on the key issue of its car exports. BBG
• The US is working to ensure tensions between India and Pakistan don’t escalate, JD Vance said. He also told Fox News India will be among the first trade deals done. BBG
• US President Trump is planning to release his FY 2026 budget on Friday, according to Axios. It was separately reported that President Trump is to propose slashing USD 163bln in government programs in budget blueprint: WSJ.
• US Envoy told NATO allies that US President Trump may skip the NATO summit; Trump may not attend if there is no 5% spending target agreement: Spiegel
• Eurozone CPI for Apr runs hot on headline (+2.2% vs. the Street +2.1%) and esp. on core (+2.7% vs. the Street +2.5%, and up from +2.4% in Mar) BBG.
• US bank reserves dropped by $209 billion to $3 trillion in the week through April 30. That’s the lowest since Jan. 1 and the biggest weekly decline this year. BBG
• Apple added to fears about levies, warning its costs will jump by $900 million this quarter. Amazon cut its operating profit projections, saying it expects to be “materially affected” by tariffs, FX fluctuations and recession worries. AAPL -3.15% premkt, AMZN -85bps. BBG
• America’s money managers are more bearish today than they have been in nearly 30 years. Barron’s latest Big Money poll of professional investors finds 32% of respondents bearish on the outlook for stocks over the next 12 months—the highest percentage since at least 1997. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US Department of Commerce launched the Section 232 steel and aluminium inclusions process which allows US manufacturers and trade associations to request the inclusion of new derivative articles under Section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
• De minimis exception for products from China and Hong Kong imported to the US is now voided, as scheduled.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the Chinese want to meet and talk, while he added those talks will come up soon and there’s a broader question about how much we should buy from China going forward.
• China is said to be conducting an assessment on US trade negotiations and urged the US to demonstrate sincerity for trade talks, while it urged the US to correct mistakes regarding tariffs and noted it is currently evaluating possible US trade talks.
• China’s MOFCOM said the tariff and trade war was unilaterally initiated by the US and the US should show its sincerity in talks, while it added the US has repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate with China on the tariff issue and has recently taken the initiative to convey information to the Chinese side through relevant parties on several occasions, hoping to talk with the Chinese side. MOFCOM added that China’s position has always been the same: ‘talk, the door is open,’ as well as noted the US should show sincerity if it wants to talk and that in any possible dialogue or meeting if the US does not correct its unilateral tariff measures, it has no sincerity at all. Furthermore, it stated the US should be prepared to take action in correcting erroneous practices and cancelling unilateral tariffs.
• Japanese PM Ishiba said there is no change at all to Japan’s stance of requesting the US to cancel tariffs, while he added they are not in a situation where common ground has been found yet but he received a report from Economic Minister Akazawa that talks were forward-looking. Furthermore, Ishiba commented that reaching a deal in haste is not necessarily in the best interest.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said Japan’s huge US Treasury holdings are among the tools it can wield in trade negotiations with the US but added that whether Japan wields that card is a different question.
• Japan’s Economic Minister Akazawa said that US tariff negotiations lasted for 130 minutes and they were able to have a thorough discussion in which repeated its request for a review of tariffs on Japan, while they talked about how Japan can expand trade, non-tariff measures and economic security with the US. Akazawa said they told the US that tariff measures are regrettable and they want to hold the next meeting after mid-May, while they asked the US to review tariff measures on auto parts and the negotiation was handled as a package. Furthermore, they did not talk about China during the talks and he understands that the US wants to reach some kind of agreement within the 90-day window with various countries.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly higher as many regional participants returned from the Labor Day holiday and with some hopes for US-China trade talks. ASX 200 gained with the advances led by outperformance in the energy sector following the upside in oil prices and with a continuation of the status quo seen as the outcome in tomorrow’s federal election with Australian PM Albanese highly favoured to win a second term. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but is off intraday highs after stalling near the 37,000 level and following a surprise increase in Japan’s unemployment rate. Hang Seng outperformed on return from the holiday closure and despite the continued absence of mainland participants, while there were reports that China is currently evaluating possible US trade talks and noted that the US has repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate with China on the tariff issue, although it urged the US to demonstrate sincerity for trade talks and correct its unilateral tariff measures.

Top Asian news

• China-linked group was accused of meddling in Australia’s election with the Chinese Communist Party-linked Australia Hubei Association said to have mobilised volunteers to support an independent candidate ahead of Saturday’s federal election in Australia, according to Nikkei.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +1%) are entirely in the green as the region returns from holiday; sentiment today has been boosted following a strong session on Wall Street in the prior session, and mostly positive APAC trade overnight. Price action has been relatively rangebound and near recent highs, with traders ultimately cautious ahead of the day’s key US NFP report. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Tech tops the pile, followed closely by Industrials (lifted by post-earning strength in Airbus) whilst Utilities is found at the foot of the pile. A number of banks reported today; Standard Chartered (+1%, strong Q1 results), ING (+4.5%, reported record deposit growth and launched EUR 2bln share buyback), Danske Bank (+4%, strong results across the board and guidance range topped expectations), NatWest (+1.9%, Q1 headline figures beat expectations and suggested 2025 income to be at top-end of guidance range).

Top European news

• UK by-election: Reform wins Runcorn and Helsby by a margin of six votes with 38.7% of the total vote.

FX

• USD is currently softer vs. all major peers with DXY snapping a run of 3 consecutive sessions of gains which have in part been driven by the recent recovery in US risk assets. This in part has been driven by the performance of corporate America in Q1 earnings season and hopes of a US-China trade deal. On the former, reports suggest that China is conducting an assessment on US trade negotiations and evaluating possible US trade talks. DXY currently sits within Thursday’s 99.61-100.37 range.
• EUR firmer vs. the USD and one of the better performers across the majors. From a fundamental perspective, attention has been on comments from EU negotiator Sefcovic who said Europe is ready to make US President Trump an offer, in which Brussels wants to increase purchases of US goods by EUR 50bln to address the “problem” in the trade relationship. On the data front, EZ HICP Flash metrics incrementally topped expectations, but ultimately had little impact on the Single-Currency.
• USD/JPY initially extended on the prior day’s BoJ-spurred upward momentum but then pulled back from resistance just shy of the 146.00 level. There was little reaction seen following reports of US-Japan tariff talks or comments from Japanese Finance Minister Kato who said Japan’s huge US Treasury holdings are among tools it can wield in trade negotiations with the US but added whether Japan wields that card is a different question. More recently, a report in the Nikkei suggested that US trade negotiators presented a framework for an agreement with Japan, however, Japan strongly opposed the proposal. In recent trade USD/JPY has dipped below the 145.00 mark.
• GBP is firmer vs. the USD but modestly so and below the opening levels of the week despite the notable rally on Monday. Price action for Cable has largely been at the whim of the Greenback with incremental macro drivers for the UK exceptionally light aside from some upbeat commentary on the prospects of a UK-US trade deal.
• Antipodeans are both firmer and supported by the current risk-environment which has been underpinned by hopes of a potential US-China trade deal (China is both nation’s largest trading partner). AUD has overlooked disappointing Australian Retail Sales data and is looking ahead to Saturday’s federal election with PM Albanese seen as likely to secure a second term.

Fixed Income

• USTs are contained into NFP. The headline is expected to show a marked cooling in the pace of Payrolls to 130k (prev. 228k), with a range of 25-195k. The report will be scoured for signs of Trump’s tariffs and associated reciprocal measures impacting the US labour market. USTs holding around 112-00 in 111-23+ to 112-01+ confines, a tick below Thursday’s base but some way clear of that session’s 112-20 peak; the high occurred in the early US morning, before the ISM release. On the trade front, US trade relations with constructive reports in the FT around EU concessions to address the trade deficit with the US in addition to reports that the US has reached out to China to seek talks alongside constructive MOFCOM language.
• Elsewhere, the Japanese Finance Minister stated that Japan’s holdings of USTs could be “among such cards” used in trade negotiations, though Kato added “whether we actually use that card, however, is a different question”. Little move was seen in USTs at the time.
• Bunds opened near enough unchanged at 131.75 after the Labour Day holiday. Just after the resumption of trade they lifted to a 131.81 peak for the session before slipping as low as 131.34 in the early European morning as participants reacted to the US-China updates overnight. Thereafter, lifted around 25 ticks from that low but remained in the red and held around that mark into data. EZ HICP came in hotter across the board and the ex-Food & Energy measures eclipsed the forecast range alongside Services jumping to 3.9% (prev. rev. 3.5%); Bunds knee jerked lower but remained well within earlier confines and have since pared the entire move and are back to holding off lows but remain in the red by around 10 ticks.
• Gilts opened lower by around 20 ticks, catching up to the slight bearish bias in APAC hours on the points outlined in USTs. Thereafter, the benchmark began to inch its way higher and is currently modestly outperforming at the top-end of a 93.30-91 band, just eclipsing Thursday’s 93.88 high. In terms of the slight outperformance, there isn’t a clear or overt headline driver behind it and instead it may be a function of Gilts not being capped/weighed on in the way that USTs and EGBs are by progress on trade talks.

Commodities

• The crude complex opened with a positive bias, continuing the upside seen in the prior session, which stemmed from the broader risk-on sentiment and after Trump’s latest Iran threats. As the session progressed, the complex has been gradually cooling off those highs, to currently trade lower by around USD 0.40/bbl. Brent July’2025 currently trades in a USD 61.72-62.72/bbl range.
• Precious metals are broadly in the green, benefiting from the softer Dollar. XAU/USD is firmer today, attempting to make back some of its recent losses; currently higher by around USD 21/oz, in a USD 3,227.67-3,263.36/oz range.
• Base metals hold a strong positive bias, benefitting from the positive risk tone and the softer Dollar. Sentiment has also been boosted as both US and China suggested a willingness by the other side for talks. 3M LME Copper currently +1.8%, and trading within a USD 9,241.95-9,411.15/t range.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• “Israel understood from Washington that if it decides to strike Iran, it will most likely do so alone as long as the nuclear negotiations continue”, according to Sky News Arabia citing AP quoting an Israeli official
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel attacked a target last night near the Syrian presidential palace in Damascus.
• Israeli Home Front said Northern Israel is under rocket attack from Yemen, according to Al Jazeera.
• Houthi-affiliated media reported US warplanes targeted the Yemeni capital Sana’a, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said this is the best opportunity for Iran and that Iran should not be afraid of inspectors including Americans, according to a Fox News interview.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian PM says two of the three documents on US minerals deal will not need ratification, according to a member of parliament.
• Ukraine’s Parliament plans ratification vote on US minerals deal on May 8th, according to a lawmaker cited by Reuters.
• US VP Vance said Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going to end anytime soon. It was separately reported that US Secretary of State Rubio said Ukraine and Russia’s positions are still a little far apart, while he added it’s going to take a breakthrough soon on Ukraine to make this possible or else the President will have to decide how much time to dedicate to this.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Apr Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 137.5k, prior 228k
• 8:30 am: Apr Change in Private Payrolls, est. 124.5k, prior 209k
• 8:30 am: Apr Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -5k, prior 1k
• 8:30 am: Apr Unemployment Rate, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%
• 8:30 am: Apr Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Apr Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.9%, prior 3.8%
• 10:00 am: Mar Factory Orders, est. 4.45%, prior 0.6%
• 10:00 am: Mar F Durable Goods Orders, est. 9.2%, prior 9.2%
• 10:00 am: Mar F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0%, prior 0%
• 10:00 am: Mar F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
• 10:00 am: Mar F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I briefly went back inside my old school (Hampton) last night for the first time in 33 years to help record a fund raising video. So I’m feeling a little nostalgic and old this morning. However, it could also be the incredible heatwave we’re having for the time of year playing tricks on me.

In markets as most of Europe was enjoying the one of the hotter May Day holidays on record, the S&P 500 (+0.63%) closed within 1.18% of its April 2nd close, just minutes before the Liberation Day press conference after the bell that day. This now also brings its gains over the last 8 sessions to a huge +8.65%. Indeed, that marks the fastest 8-session gain since November 2020, back when markets were surging after the announcement of the Pfizer vaccine that offered a path out of the pandemic. Meanwhile, other tariff-related moves also unwound, with the dollar index (+0.78%) hitting a 3-week high (albeit -3.43% below April 2nd close), whilst US HY spreads tightened -16bps. There continued to be mounting optimism around the trade war, following on from US trade representative Greer’s comments that deals were moving closer.

This optimism has continued overnight after China’s Ministry of Commerce said that it’s evaluating trade talks with the US. The ministry said this comes as “the US has recently sent messages to China through revenant parties” and urged Washington to shows “sincerity” towards China. Against that background Asian equities are higher on the news (more below), with S&P 500 (+0.77%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.50%) futures also moving higher even after unwhelming results from Apple and Amazon last night.

Amazon’s Q1 performance was actually a touch above expectations, but the company gave weaker-than-expected guidance for the current quarter on the back of tariffs, projecting an operating profit of $13bn to $17.5bn (vs. $17.8bn expected). Amazon’s shares fell -3.2% in extended trading, mostly reversing a +3.13% gain during yesterday’s regular session. Apple delivered a modest headline beat across revenue ($95.4bn vs $94.6bn expected) and earnings, but weaker revenue in China ($16bn vs $16.83bn) was seen as a concerning sign of the potential trade war challenges. Apple stock slid by -3.8% after-hours (+0.39% yesterday). Both companies may be helped by the renewed trade optimism overnight. For more on tech’s recent performance, see our team’s April tech performance review here.

Looking back at yesterday, the tech earnings the night before played a big role in the market rally, with the Magnificent 7 surging +2.79%, alongside a +1.52% move for the NASDAQ. Microsoft gained +7.63% and Meta +4.23% after their results. Nvidia posted a +2.47% advance, also helped by a Bloomberg report that the US is considering easing restrictions on Nvidia chip sales to the UAE.

Earlier yesterday the risk-on tone had received additional support from the latest batch of US data, which wasn’t as bad as feared. In particular, the ISM manufacturing print only fell to 48.7 (vs. 47.9 expected), which wasn’t too much of a dip from the 49.0 reading in March, and still above its levels from May-November last year. Admittedly, the weekly initial jobless claims did tick up to 241k (vs. 223k expected), but that could be explained by a surge in New York, which probably reflected difficulties in the seasonal adjustment around the Easter holidays, so it wasn’t seen as a sign of a rapidly deteriorating labour market.

Staying on the data, the next watchpoint will be the US April jobs report out today, which is the first to cover the period since Liberation Day, and one of the first hard data points we’ll have. As a reminder, our US economists expect headline nonfarm payrolls to grow by +125K (vs +228K previously), with private payrolls at +125k (vs. +209k previously). So they see a reversion after a strong March, particularly within the leisure/hospitality and retail sectors but note the late Easter has the potential to distort the data and seasonal adjustments. They also expect unemployment to remain unchanged at +4.2%. You can see their full preview and register for their post-release webinar here.

Yesterday’s data also triggered a notable rise in Treasury yields, which unwound their initial decline after the ISM manufacturing release. With the release better than expected alongside the wider risk-on tone, investors dialled back their expectations for Fed rate cuts, and the 2yr Treasury yield moved up +9.6bps on the day to 3.70%, whilst the 10yr yield was up +4.86bps to 4.22%.

In Europe, markets were fairly quiet given Germany, France and Italy were closed for a public holiday. However, the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.02%) advanced for a 14th consecutive day, which is a joint record since the index was formed back in 1984. And with most of Europe not trading, the STOXX 600 also saw a muted gain of +0.02%. Otherwise, gilt yields moved higher in line with US Treasuries, with the 10yr yield up +4.1bps on the day to 4.48%. They are both up around another +1.5bps overnight.

Coming back to Asia, equity markets are largely rising this morning boosted by the positive overnight performance on Wall Street amid China’s openness to trade negotiations. This is outweighing concerns about the effect of tariffs, which were initially triggered by disappointing earnings from Apple and Amazon. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng Tech Index (+3.37%) is surging with the Hang Seng (+1.63%) also trading sharply higher. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.91%) and the Nikkei (+0.53%) are also trading higher with the KOSPI (+0.19%) seeing minor gains. Meanwhile, China markets are closed for the Labour Day public holiday.

Early morning data showed that Australian retail sales experienced a third consecutive month of expansion in March. The +0.3% m/m increase, while marginally below the projected +0.4%, followed a +0.2% gain in the preceding month. This is a small support to the house view that the RBA should cut 25bps this month.

To the day ahead now, as mentioned earlier we will see US data releases on April Jobs, as well as March’s factory orders. Other notable data includes France March budget balance, Italy April manufacturing PMI, budget balance, March unemployment rate, Eurozone April CPI, March unemployment rate. Earnings include Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, Apollo and Natwest.

Frustrated by repeated delays in Boeing’s new Air Force One production timeline, President Trump has reportedly commissioned defense contractor L3Harris Technologies to retrofit a Boeing 747 previously used by the Qatari government as an interim presidential aircraft. 

The Wall Street Journal reported that L3Harris has been tasked with retrofitting the Qatari 747 with communications systems and other equipment to transform the luxury aircraft into Air Force One. 

According to the people familiar with the matter, President Trump requested that L3Harris complete the needed retrofitting of the jumbo jet by as early as fall.

In February, FOX Business’ Edward Lawrence confirmed that Boeing had suffered global supply chain snarls that changed project timings and delayed the completion date to 2029. 

White House communications director Steven Cheung told FOX Business at the time: “It is ridiculous that the delivery of a new Air Force One airplane has been delayed for such a long time,” adding, “The president working on identifying ways to speed up the delivery of a new plane, which has been needed for a while.”

Months later, WSJ’s L3Harris report may suggest that there were very limited options to speed up the Boeing delivery. 

Here’s more from the report:

Before Trump’s inauguration, White House Military Office and senior Air Force officials considered canceling Boeing’s contract for the new planes, according to people familiar with the matter. White House officials under Trump have also discussed whether they can sue the plane manufacturer, some of the people said.

Trump initially tapped the bloated defense contractor to build the next-generation presidential aircraft during his first term, aiming to replace the aging fleet. Boeing’s failure to deliver on time has become emblematic of the broader military-industrial complex: bloated, sluggish, and unaccountable.

The military-industrial complex’s failures must urgently be corrected. For now, L3Harris is stepping in, aiming to deliver a retrofitted Qatari 747 as an interim Air Force One jet by this fall.

America’s defense space needs more domestic competition if it wants to compete in the 2030s.