Zerohedge

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Dramatic footage shows agents with US Customs and Border Protection Air and Marine Operations halting an attempt by human traffickers to smuggle a boat full of illegals into the country earlier this week.

The video posted to X shows the moment the agents rammed into the boat in an incident off the coast of California.

Border Patrol Chief Michael Banks stated that the CBP was alerted by the Mexican Navy that the vessel had refused to stop for them and the U.S. Coast Guard in a previous encounter.

USBP and CBP Air & Marine Operations (AMO) stopped two suspected smugglers in the open waters of San Diego, CA, after receiving reports from the Mexican Navy about a vessel with two individuals that failed to stop for them and the U.S. Coast Guard a few days prior. Law… pic.twitter.com/tgLXqOh11a

— Chief Michael W. Banks (@USBPChief) April 28, 2025

Banks noted that AMO agents attempted to stop the boat near the San Diego coastline, but the driver refused to heave, forcing the escalated action.

The agents rammed the boat and disabled it, allowing them to detain two alleged human smugglers.

“Even in the open ocean, the border has a line- and we will defend it,” Banks urged.

Last week, Banks revealed that another vessel was intercepted carrying 19 illegal aliens, three of whom are thought to be traffickers.

U.S. Border Patrol and the U.S. Coastguard intercepted a human smuggling attempt just off the coast near Oceanside, CA. The leisure vessel was carrying 19 illegal aliens, 3 of which were smugglers. The smugglers now face felony charges for alien smuggling (8USC1324), while the… pic.twitter.com/E1seXLjEFi

— Chief Michael W. Banks (@USBPChief) April 25, 2025

Such incursions are increasing in frequency now the land borders have been completely locked down by the Trump administration.

New US Border Stats

– 99.99% decrease in so called getaways
– Illegal border encounters are now down 95%
– Trump administration has deported roughly 139,000 people
– Under Biden, border patrol officials dealt with up to 15,000 crossings per day
– Under Trump, Homan said that… pic.twitter.com/VYmeTNwXfL

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) April 30, 2025

JUST RELEASED: 99.9% at the Border. Best number ever recorded. 3 people got in, versus hundreds of thousands in last Administration. There has NEVER been such a difference before. Congratulations America!

From Donald Trump Truth Social 04/27/25 08:57 AM

— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) April 27, 2025

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The Kremlin has confirmed Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the “Victory Day” celebrations in Moscow on May 9, illustrating the close strategic partnership between the two countries, also at a moment that Ukraine is alleging the presence of Chinese fighters engaged in the conflict.

“We are waiting for the leader of China,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters this week. “There will be a separate visit by President Xi, to which we attach great importance and are preparing.”

This year’s commemoration of the end of WW2 and major national Russian holiday will mark the 80th anniversary, and President Putin last week declared a unilateral 3-day truce in Ukraine for May 8-11. 

Ukraine has called it an attempt at manipulation and questioned why Russia doesn’t just declare a thirty-day ceasefire starting immediately. It’s anything but clear whether Ukraine plans to reciprocate a 3-day ceasefire. 

While there’s as yet no evidence of official Chinese military involvement in Ukraine operations, the past week has seen Moscow and Pyongyang confirm the presence of North Korean troops in the conflict – specifically in action to liberate Kursk region.

However, there will be sizeable Chinese military representation at the traditional military parade through Red Square for Victory day. China has of course been a key BRICS economic lifeline for Moscow throughout the war, whether via Russian oil purchases or sending dual use military-industrial parts.

Chinese troops rehearsing May 9 parade in Moscow in 2025. It were American, British, French and Polish troops back in 2010. pic.twitter.com/ucGp27x2bl

— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) May 1, 2025

Earlier this week Ukraine’s President Zelensky actually hinted that Victory Day events, particularly in Moscow, could come under attack.

“We… are choosing exactly those painful points of Russia that will most of all push Moscow to diplomacy. They must take clear steps to end the war, and we insist that the first step should be an unconditional and complete cease-fire. Russia should do it,” Zelensky began in a Tuesday evening message. 

“Now they are worried that their parade is in question, and they are rightly worried. But they should be concerned that this war is still going on. They must end the war,” Zelensky said.

This year’s celebrations could be somewhat on edge, given drones out of Ukraine has been traveling further and further, doing damage to oil and gas facilities, military bases, and at times city neighborhoods.

The Kremlin has largely shrugged this off, and the threat was somewhat indirect, but has highlighted that Zelensky is making terroristic threats to potentially attack a civic event in the heart of the capital. Lately there’s been assassination bombings targeting top Russian generals, as well as long-range drone attacks which have reached the outskirts of Moscow. 

Likely the Russian defense and security services will bulk up anti-air systems in an around Moscow for Victory Day events. Officials from various countries and especially Russia-friendly nations are expected to be present.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Amazon will invest $4 billion by 2026 to expand its network in rural America for delivering packages faster in densely populated areas, the company said in an April 30 statement.

“This investment will also grow our rural delivery network’s footprint to over 200 delivery stations, and we estimate it will create over 100,000 new jobs and driving opportunities through a wide range of full-time, part-time, and flexible positions in our buildings and on the roads,” the company said.

“Once this expansion is complete, our network will be able to deliver over a billion more packages each year to customers living in over 13,000 zip codes spanning 1,200,000 square miles—an area the size of Alaska, California, and Texas combined.”

The effort focuses on small towns in the United States. Amazon plans on expanding at a time when many logistics providers “have backed away from investing in rural customers and communities.”

Amazon estimates that by the end of next year, its rural delivery network will triple in size, with average delivery times being cut in half.

For each new facility opened as part of expansion, an estimated 170 new jobs on average shall be created at the delivery station level, Amazon said, adding that other job opportunities would be extra, such as those created via the Delivery Service Partner (DSP) and Amazon Flex programs.

DSP is a program in which small businesses set up delivery services to transport Amazon goods. Flex is aimed at individuals who want to make some extra money delivering Amazon packages using their own vehicles.

The flex program has been caught up in legal conflicts involving driver contracts.

In June last year, lawyers representing thousands of Amazon Flex drivers announced they filed legal claims alleging the company wrongly classified the drivers as independent contractors rather than employees, which led to them being deprived of various financial benefits and worker protections.

“As Amazon exerts considerable control over the Flex drivers in their deliveries and the deliveries are part of Amazon’s usual business, the drivers qualify as Amazon employees, not independent contractors, and should be paid accordingly,” Joseph Sellers, partner at Cohen Milstein Sellers & Toll PLLC and attorney for the drivers, said at the time.

In an emailed statement to The Epoch Times, an Amazon spokesperson said the Flex program enables individuals to make “competitive pay” while setting their own schedules and being their own boss.

“We hear from most of the Amazon Flex delivery partners that they love the flexibility of the program, and we’re proud of the work they do on behalf of customers every day,” the spokesperson said.

In its April 30 statement, Amazon said it is the leading job creator in the United States, having created more than 500,000 jobs over the past five years.

The company cited a study by Amazon economists, the University of Pennsylvania, and The Wharton School, which found that “when Amazon opens a facility, median household incomes in the county increase by $1,225 per year and poverty rates fall by as much as 3.3 percent on average,” the statement said.

UPS Delivery Cut, Tariff Rumor

Amazon’s decision to expand rural delivery comes as the United Parcel Service (UPS) recently said it was aiming to cut half of its Amazon business by the second half of the year.

During a Jan. 30 earnings call, UPS CEO Carol Tome said the company was concerned about the volume and revenue concentration that was tied up with its Amazon delivery operations.

“Our contract with Amazon came up this year, and so we said it’s time to step back for a moment and reassess our relationship because if we take no action, it will likely result in diminishing returns,” she said.

In an April 29 conference call with Wall Street analysts, Tome said she was pleased with the ongoing efforts to reduce the company’s reliance on Amazon’s business.

“This volume is not a healthy fit for our network. The Amazon volume we plan to keep is profitable and is a healthy volume,” she said, adding that Amazon currently makes up 11.7 percent of UPS revenue.

Meanwhile, Amazon recently responded to a report that it was planning to display the cost of U.S. tariffs next to the price of products on its website.

The report had triggered comments from the White House, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying on April 29 that such a move would amount to a “hostile and political act.”

“Why didn’t Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?” she said.

Amazon denied that it would be carrying out the plan, saying it never considered displaying tariff information on its website.

“The team that runs our ultra-low cost Amazon Haul store considered the idea of listing import charges on certain products. This was never approved and is not going to happen,” Amazon spokesperson Tim Doyle said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.

Via VigilantFox.com,

RFK Jr. is perhaps the most impactful HHS Secretary we’ve ever seen – but if you read the mainstream news, you’d think his first 100 days were a disaster.

While chronic disease drains trillions from Americans every year, the press can’t stop obsessing over measles.

Just look at these headlines:

Many Windows Users Didn’t Know That They Can Now Block Ads

“As measles cases rise, some parents become vaccine enthusiasts.”

“US measles cases near 900, outbreaks reported in 10 states.”

It makes you think measles is a really big problem, but in reality, it’s not.

RFK Jr. expertly flipped this media narrative on its head in real time during his Wednesday night appearance on NewsNation—and it was so brilliant the audience gave him a round of applause.

NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo asked Kennedy:

“You weren’t saying that [get vaccinated] during COVID. That’s why people aren’t getting vaccinated. And now it’s a problem. How do you deal with that issue, and what responsibility do you have in terms of how people feel about getting vaccinated?”

NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo asked Kennedy:

“You weren’t saying that [get vaccinated] during COVID. That’s why people aren’t getting vaccinated. And now it’s a problem. How do you deal with that issue, and what responsibility do you have in terms of how people feel about getting… pic.twitter.com/UtIw0uiIml

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 1, 2025

Kennedy delivered a sharp, measured response. First, he pointed out that measles is a far smaller problem in the U.S. than it is globally.

He explained, “Right now we have about 842 cases, Chris. And Canada, they have about the same number. They have one-eighth of our population. Europe has ten times that number. Our numbers have plateaued.”

He noted that for years, the CDC has insisted the only way to manage measles is through universal vaccination. But Kennedy challenged that approach.

He argued that people who have concerns about the MMR vaccine—whether it’s due to aborted fetal debris or DNA particles—deserve access to treatment options.

“And that’s what we’re developing at CDC right now,” Kennedy said, “protocols for treating measles.”

Kennedy delivered a sharp, measured response. First, he pointed out that measles is a far smaller problem in the U.S. than it is globally.

He explained, “Right now we have about 842 cases, Chris. And Canada, they have about the same number. They have one-eighth of our… pic.twitter.com/UTIOUbPX5E

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 1, 2025

Kennedy then delivered a devastating jab at the dominant measles narrative, putting everything into perspective and leaving the panel silent.

“I want to say this,” Kennedy began.

“We’ve had four measles deaths in this country in 20 years. We have 100,000 autism cases a year. We have 38% of our kids now are diabetic or pre-diabetic. That should be in the headlines,” he said.

*Applause erupted*

“When I was a kid, there were 2 million measles cases a year and none of them got headlines. And we had 400 deaths. We had deaths between 1 in 1,200 and 1 in 10,000. We have so many kids now who are afflicted by chronic disease. And the media never covers them. They only want to cover measles,” he added.

“And what I’ve been saying to people is, let’s pay attention to other illnesses as well—illnesses that are really, really damaging our country, that are existential for our country. We now spend almost a trillion dollars a year on diabetes and metabolic disorder,” Kennedy explained.

Then he drove the point home, contrasting the media’s obsession with measles to its silence on autism.

“By 2035, we’re going to be spending a million dollars a year on autism. Autism in 1970 was 1 in 10,000 Americans. Today, it’s 1 in 31. In California, it’s 1 in every 20 kids—1 in every 12.5 boys,” he said.

“This is what the media ought to be focusing on, and it’s not. And because of that, we don’t have the solutions and we don’t have the cures.”

Kennedy then delivered a devastating jab at the dominant measles narrative, putting everything into perspective and leaving the panel silent.

“I want to say this,” Kennedy began.

“We’ve had four measles deaths in this country in 20 years. We have 100,000 autism cases a year. We… pic.twitter.com/c2PuNv6l2n

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 1, 2025

During that 90-second stretch, the NewsNation panel sat there stunned in silence.

No pushback, no rebuttal.

That’s because they knew Kennedy was dropping undeniable truths.

Cuomo and friends understand the media’s job isn’t to inform parents or educate the public on real health solutions.

They’re only there to smear people like Kennedy and make mountains out of molehills. Because they know if they leave him unresisted, the public might get a little too close to the truth.

Watch the full video below:

Microsoft is raising prices on its Xbox consoles, games, and accessories, marking a potential turning point after decades of deflation in the gaming industry—even as development costs have continued to rise. The move underscores mounting pressure on developers and publishers to restore margins, while new optimism for the industry builds ahead of this fall’s release of the guaranteed mega-hit Grand Theft Auto 6.

The technology news website Engadget reports that Xbox consoles and games will see price hikes this year. This means Xbox Series S will start at $380, up from the previous price of $300. The Series X console will be priced at $550, a $100 increase. 

For Xbox video games, the average price for AAA-rated games is expected to rise to $80. 

Here are more details about the price increases:

Microsoft is dramatically increasing the price of the Xbox Series X and Series S, as well as new games and accessories. As of today, the Series S will start at $380, up from $300, while the Series X will begin at $550, a $100 increase from its previous price. As for the 1TB Series S, it now costs $430, up from $350. Meanwhile, if you want the Series X with disc drive, it will now set you back $600. Lastly, the 2TB Galaxy Black Special Edition now costs an eye-watering $730.

Additionally, Microsoft says beginning this holiday season “some” new first-party games will release at $80. At the same time, the company is increasing the price of nearly all of its first-party and peripherals. Most notably, a core controller will now set you back $65.

In an emailed response, Microsoft told Engadget about the challenges in the video game space and new pricing was made after “careful consideration given market conditions and the rising cost of development,” adding, “Looking ahead, we continue to focus on offering more ways to play more games across any screen and ensuring value for Xbox players.”

Let’s revisit our earlier note titled “Grand Theft Auto VI Priced at $100?” This Gaming Analyst Believes So.” 

We cited Epyllion CEO Matthew Ball, who said Rockstar Games’ guaranteed mega-hit Grand Theft Auto 6 release this fall “could re-establish packed video game prices after decades of deflation despite rampant cost growth.” 

Epyllion’s Ball predicted that GTA 6 could help reverse the deflationary downturn in the video game industry, stating: “Some game makers hope GTA 6 will be priced at $80-100, breaking the $70 barrier and helping $50 titles move up to $60, $60 to $70, $70 to $80.” 

In the early 2000s, video games were priced around $50. By the mid-2000s, the price had increased to $60, and in 2020, the industry raised the price of AAA-rated games to $70. 

“Packaged game prices have never been lower in real terms than they are today — even though budgets are at all-time highs and player growth is stalled,” Ball continued, adding, “GTA 6 could re-establish packed video game prices after decades of deflation despite rampant cost growth.”

Since GTA 5 was released in 2013, gamers have been waiting over a decade for the next installment—and it’s safe to assume that, after such a long wait, many will be more than willing to pay $70 to $100 for GTA 6 (after all, consumers can use BNPL apps for payment).

More tailwinds for the gaming industry materialized last week when the Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order frenzy swept across the world. 

Whether GTA 6 can single-handedly save the video game industry from a deflationary death spiral remains a big question. We’ll find out in the second half.

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

The father of prominent Jeffrey Epstein sexual abuse victim Virginia Giuffre doesn’t believe the narrative that she took her own life last week, and is demanding an independent investigation.

As we highlighted, Giuffre previously stated that she was not suicidal, and her lawyer is adamant there is no evidence to suggest she was. 

She was also involved in a bizarre incident just weeks prior to her death wherein an Instagram post from her account claimed she had been hit by a bus in Australia and had just days to live.

Giuffre’s family issued a statement last week confirming her suicide, but now her own father, Sky Roberts, has spoken out saying he does not buy that narrative.

In an interview with TMZ, he explicitly stated that he doesn’t believe his daughter killed herself.

“My daughter was a fighter,” Roberts said, adding “She was speaking out against some of the most powerful people in the world, and now we’re supposed to believe she just gave up?”

“I don’t buy it. The police need to dig deeper—much deeper,” Roberts added.

[ZH:] Roberts also appeared on Piers Morgan Uncensored, where he said “Somebody got to her…“

‘There’s no way that she committed suicide… somebody got to her.’

EXCLUSIVE: Virginia Giuffre’s father Sky Roberts speaks to Piers Morgan about her death on Uncensored.

Dropping on YouTube at 5pm (12pm ET) 👇

SUBSCRIBE: https://t.co/QR11ywsANx@piersmorgan pic.twitter.com/5OdrxRBnLy

— Piers Morgan Uncensored (@PiersUncensored) May 1, 2025

Giiffre’s attorney Karrie Louden told The Sun earlier this week that she spoke to her just days before she was found dead, and that she expressed optimism for the future.

“She [Virginia] wanted to renovate this house and all sorts of things like that. There were plans that she had for the future,” Louden urged, adding “things were positive.”

“Until the evidence is in, we’re just, you know, drawing conclusions,” Louden further noted, adding that “Officially, the police told me nothing. They didn’t even confirm that she was dead. That’s how little information the police have provided to me.”

“This has been a complete shock to all of us. If any of us had thought she’s going to commit suicide, of course we would have taken more steps, put her into a clinic or got her some more help,” the attorney emphasised.

Virginia Giuffre’s lawyer has broken her silence, insisting there was absolutely no indication that Giuffre intended to take her own life.

She is distancing herself from Giuffre’s family, who have publicly stated they believe it was a suicide.

Attorney Karrie Louden says she… pic.twitter.com/8Fm9zTMtEV

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) April 28, 2025

As we also highlighted, another Epstein victim, Juliette Rose Bryant, does not believe Giuffre committed suicide, and has communicated that she is in fear for her own life.

Bryant’s reposted a video in which she states “I am not suicidal, and I never, ever will be. I also do not do any drugs,” before noting that other Epstein victims have been found dead in suspicious circumstances and urging “We all know about the Clinton body count.”

Amid frustration over the delays in releasing the remaining Epstein films evidence, which is believed to include client lists, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, chairwoman of the Task Force on the Declassification of Federal Secrets, os increasing pressure on Attorney General Pam Bondi to get on with it.

2 Epstein victims are now dead.

Every day the DOJ delays releasing the Epstein client list, public trust erodes & more lives are put at risk.

I am calling on the DOJ and @AGPamBondi to act immediately — release the files. The American people deserve the truth.

— Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (@RepLuna) April 28, 2025

It has become clear that the DOJ is stonewalling the release of the documents, with Bondi claiming they are ‘on her desk’ and waiting to be dealt with.

On Feb 11 & Feb 19, house oversight sent a letter to the DOJ asking for status on releasing the Epstein files as well as JFK etc.

The DOJ has not responded.

Reaching out on X because we can’t seem to get a response from the AG.@AGPamBondi what is the status of the…

— Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (@RepLuna) February 25, 2025

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Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Until values, priorities and incentives change, “the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock and on back order, with no estimate of a future delivery date.”

The ultimate winners and losers in reshoring supply chains to North America have yet to be determined, and may change depending on the time frame. In the short-term, there are ample reasons to reckon consumers will be the losers as shortages and price-gouging (“it’s the tariffs” will be the excuse given for profiteering) take their toll.

Matt Stoller has posted two comprehensive essays on these topics:

How Monopolies Could Exploit the Tariff Shock

How to Prepare for the Coming Supply Chain Shock

In the longer term, however, consumers could be winners as reshored supply chains will be more stable and predictable than globalized supply chains. Stability has a value that isn’t recognized until it’s absent–as do durability and quality.

One set of potential winners might be large retail corporations that choose to switch from “horizontal” global supply chains to vertically integrated domestic production, in which raw materials are turned into finished products in one production facility.

Ford Motor Company was an early adopter of this model, constructing the immense Ford River Rouge complex from 1917 to 1928 that turned iron ore into finished automobiles in one integrated production process.

“With its own docks in the dredged Rouge River, 100 miles (160 km) of interior railroad track, its own electricity plant, and integrated steel mill, the titanic Rouge was able to turn raw materials into running vehicles within this single complex, a prime example of vertical-integration production.”

While it can be argued that vertical integration is less efficient in terms of cost, once again the value of complete control, stability and predictability is not included in spreadsheets, though it becomes readily apparent when long single-source global supply chains break down or are crippled by bottlenecks, artificial scarcities triggered by geopolitical blackmail or a host of other causal factors.

Establishing domestic sources for materials, tooling, robotics, etc. would remove many of the uncertainties that are inherent in a global supply chain breaking down along geopolitical, regional and national lines.

Were unions to regain wide public support, industrial unions might be winners should the public support unionizing new production facilities. The sustained erosion of labor’s share of the nation’s income over the past five decades might finally gain recognition as a core driver of wealth-income inequality and unionized labor might be understood as a necessary rebalancing of an economy that has favored finance and capital over labor for nearly three generations.

Were the public to begin valuing local production and jobs over “lower prices” and equally low quality, local supply chains might become winners. Note that I’ve mentioned the public’s values and priorities as key drivers changing economic incentives and policies. In the current zeitgeist, the public is assumed to be “rational economic robots” who respond solely to price.

Once the full banquet of consequences of rampant hyper-financialization and hyper-globalization has played out, the public might begin to grasp the importance of valuing something other than low prices (and the low quality that comes with low prices). As a general rule, the public leads the private sector and government, not the other way round.

For example, the public might start valuing national security, which is ultimately dependent on stable, predictable domestic production supply chains owned and controlled by domestic companies.

Until values, priorities and incentives change, the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock and on back order, with no estimate of a future delivery date.

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Now former Kohl’s CEO Ashley Buchanan was abruptly fired after an internal investigation revealed he steered the company into a multimillion-dollar deal involving a vendor tied to a former romantic partner, according to the Wall Street Journal, who first broke the story.

Buchanan was hired in November 2024 and became CEO effective January 15, 2025. 

Michael J. Bender, Kohl’s Board Chair, said at the time: “We know he will be a great leader for Kohl’s and will bring a new perspective in our next chapter.” That chapter barely lasted 4 months. 

He “had instructed the retailer to enter into a ‘highly unusual’ business deal involving a woman with whom he has had a romantic relationship,” the Journal wrote.

The company’s board found Buchanan failed to disclose the relationship and violated the company’s code of conduct, according to a regulatory filing.

The vendor, unnamed in filings, was part of a consulting team awarded a lucrative contract. Sources identified her as Chandra Holt, a former Walmart and Bed Bath & Beyond executive whom Buchanan met years earlier while both worked at Walmart. Holt now runs Incredibrew, a vitamin-infused coffee startup.

The two have a history:

The two retail veterans have known each other for years. Buchanan was the Sam’s Club chief merchandising officer and Holt held several positions at the Walmart chain, including general merchandise manager of grocery and the chief operating officer of its website.

They both further rose through the ranks at Walmart before leaving around the same time for other positions at Texas-based retailers. Buchanan left in early 2020 to become CEO of Michaels. Holt left in 2021 to become CEO of Conn’s HomePlus and later Bed Bath and Beyond.

The Journal wrote that Buchanan, who became Kohl’s CEO in November 2024 after leading Michaels, will forfeit equity awards and repay a prorated portion of a $2.5 million signing bonus.

Neither he nor Holt responded to requests for comment. Kohl’s appointed Chairman Michael Bender as interim CEO—the chain’s fourth chief in three years—as it grapples with a 4% sales drop and a likely quarterly loss.

Eli Lilly & Co. shares fell in premarket trading in New York after the company slashed its full-year profit outlook, citing increased research and development expenses, despite posting first-quarter revenue and earnings that beat analysts’ expectations, driven by strong demand for its anti-obesity drug, Mounjaro.

Goldman analysts, including Asad Haider, provided clients with a first take on Lilly’s first-quarter earnings, indicating that 1Q25 results “slightly exceeded expectations.” 

LLY’s 1Q25 earnings slightly exceeded expectations, where, encouragingly, the tirzepatide franchise (Zepbound + Mounjaro) came in at $6.15bn ahead of GS/Visible Alpha Consensus Data ($6bn), reflecting continued strong demand, partially offset by lower realized prices. We note that recent IQVIA data shows Zepbound momentum continuing into April. Performance was a bit uneven amongst other portfolio items, with Jardiance (which included a one time benefit of $370mn) and Ebglyss outperforming, while Jaypirca, Omvoh and Emgality fell short of expectations.

Exhibits 1 and 2 provide more color on earnings results:

Actual vs. GS/Consensus- Income Statement and Margins

Actual vs. GS/Consensus- Income Statement and Margins

Overshadowing the first-quarter print was Lilly’s move to slash its full-year earnings guidance due to charges related to a recent cancer treatment deal. 

Lilly noted in an earnings release that the existing tariff and trade environment was factored into updated guidance. However, it said the new guidance does not reflect any policy shifts, including pharmaceutical sector tariffs, that could impact business.

More color on the updated guidance via Goldman’s Haider: 

The 2025 EPS guidance cut (from $22.50- $24.00 to $20.78- $22.28) was entirely driven by the 1Q25 IPR&D charge of $1.57bn which translates to $1.72 on EPS

Haider maintained a “Buy” rating on Lilly with a 12-month price target of $888. 

Shares fell 6% in premarket trading as the guidance cut took center stage, overshadowing an otherwise solid first quarter. Despite the decline, the stock remains just below Goldman’s 12-month price target and not far off from record highs. 

Adding to the pressure, CVS Health announced a deal to expand access to rival Novo Nordisk’s anti-obesity drug, which may have further weighed on Lilly’s stock sentiment ahead of the cash market. 

Earlier, Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks provided CNBC with an update about tariffs: “I think that actually the threat of tariffs is already bringing back critical supply chains into important industries, chips and pharma,” adding, “So do we need to enact [tariffs?] I’m not so sure.”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

This is no time for traditional economic and market methods of poring over old data. Q1 US GDP, -0.3% q-o-q annualized, tells us nothing about what will happen given its all-over-the-place components driven by preparations for a trade war now underway. Nowcasts for Q2 GDP are already showing it back to around 2.4%, but that’s again with two months of the quarter to go and US retail inventories sitting at around 5-7 weeks, after which nobody knows what will happen as the upcoming Port of LA cargo totals are set to drop by around a third year on year.

GDP was negative because of only two components:

– Trade/Imports subtracted 4.83% on tariff frontrunning
– Government subtracted 0.25%, first negative govt “contribution” since 2022 pic.twitter.com/6Ng0qyQCZ5

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 30, 2025

The only way to make any kind of forecast is to try to project what will happen in the bigger scheme of things. Or, to laugh at President Trump posting, ‘This isn’t my stock market’, because it’s going down, three months after claiming, ‘This is my stock market’, because it was going up, and presume there is no pattern to anything that’s going on.  Rather than indulge in the latter, which is easy, let’s try the former, which is hard.

In the trade war, the US Senate narrowly rejected an attempt to overturn Trump’s tariffs: we are stuck with them until he decides we aren’t. On which, Trump said he expects a great relationship with PM Carney, which may not bode well for Canada, as Alberta’s Premier laid down the law to the PM and flirted with the idea of independence. 

Moreover, the USTR says several trade deals are “close”, again: again, it’s Japan, South Korea, and India being name-dropped. If/when a first deal is signed, markets will have a clearer idea of what lies ahead: yet Trump just said he’s in no rush, and as we’ve laid out, what lies ahead likely involves a new bloc vs China that would resolve many uncertainties while creating vast new ones.

Anyone thinking better US-China trade ties are on the cards too, which apparently includes the US President in his latest comments, isn’t paying much attention (including to the headline writers not noting that he said this deal would be “on our terms” and “fair”). Rather, at the very least, escalation to deescalate is underway. 

Congress just reintroduced a bipartisan SHIPS bill to increase US shipbuilding, targeting 250 commercial vessels over the next decade, which includes the dropped USTR port fee for non-Chinese firms ordering China-built ships; subsidies for US shipbuilders; preferential treatment for US cargo; and requiring a rising % of US imports from China be transported on US-built ships. All this will have a disruptive effect on global trade we’ve already spelled out; yet the emergence of such legislation was predictable to those who read maritime history rather than just Bloomberg.

Moreover, China, whose PMI data yesterday showed trade war impact, was also reported to be months away from running out of copper: it’s not just the West that is reliant on key imports: and the US knows what they are and where they get them from.

As such, on the geopolitical front –which is joined at the hip to trade– things are also moving. 

The US and Ukraine signed the 50/50 minerals investment deal. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated: “This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centred on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.” Kyiv hopes the US may also increase defence aid, which would be useful given Europe and the UK just admitted they can’t find enough troops for the peacekeeping contribution they’ll have to make.

Many decrying Trump trying a statecraft Noxin (reverse Nixon) will cheer a US hard line vs Russia. However, the alternative means economic statecraft against Moscow: Senator Graham is pushing legislation to impose 500% secondary tariffs on anyone who buys Russian energy, which would have a destabilising impact on energy markets. Would those decriers call for actual war but not economic warfare, “because markets”? Would Russia buckle and strike peace and Noxin deals?

The troika of Charlie Kirk, Tucker Carlson, and Donald Trump, Jr. make clear they don’t want war with Iran even if the terms of a deal –no more uranium enrichment– seem unreachable, and Israel remains implacable in its opposition to a can-kicking exercise that sees it carry the realpolitik can if Iran then builds a nuke. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, trying to please the US, said that it will keep pumping oil even as prices decline. 

On two related fronts we have either a sustained bear market in oil or a rapid geopolitical move higher. Interestingly, and relatedly, the US Koch brothers just exited energy trading in what is being described as a “retreat from speculation.” NB that’s exactly what economic statecraft wants to see, as commodities, not “because markets”, are going to be a key focus of it ahead.

Moreover, things are moving in the financial system too, and not just in terms of bond yields grinding lower in DM but moving higher in EM like Argentina and Brazil. Yesterday, the US Treasury released a report on dollar stablecoin usage with huge implications for the structure of markets, and which benefits the US over others. They talk of higher deposit rates, a huge inflow into US T-bills, and much more – and most of it benefitting the US at the expense of others. Does that make it more or less likely to happen ahead? I’m asking for a friend who usually focuses on GDP.

In short, we have sharply binary geopolitical outcomes ahead and either: sustained trade chaos, with one set of implications for the world economy; or a US retreat, with another set of implications (and second, third, nth order effects the people who want to see it happen don’t grasp at all); or a clear global bifurcation between the US and China across still-variable geography and asset classes. 

Please put that all into your GDP model and tell me what it says.