Zerohedge

As House Republicans race to pass President Trump’s sweeping domestic policy package, serious internal divisions remain unresolved, casting doubt over whether the party can meet its own ambitious deadlines.

Speaker Mike Johnson has set a tight three-week window to pass a massive reconciliation bill intended to enact the core of Trump’s economic agenda. Yet as of May 1, lawmakers remain deadlocked on several of the package’s most contentious provisions, from tax policy to cuts in federal safety-net programs.

“We’re working through each of the final issues,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told Punchbowl News, acknowledging that the package is “coming down the wire” even as four committees have already advanced their legislative proposals. Behind the scenes, however, critical components of the legislation remain in flux.

Major Tax Questions Still Unanswered

Nowhere is the uncertainty more apparent than in the House Ways and Means Committee, where the $4.5 trillion tax section of the package remains in limbo. A formal markup has not been scheduled, though May 8 is being discussed as a target date, Punchbowl reports.

One of the most intractable issues is the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap. Several Republican lawmakers from high-tax states, especially New York, are pressing for the $10,000 cap to be lifted or substantially increased. Speaker Johnson met Wednesday with members of the SALT Caucus to gather “final feedback” before a new cap is finalized.

But lawmakers involved in the talks described them as far from conclusive. “We’re still far away from being done,” said Representative Nick LaLota, Republican of New York. Proposals to raise the cap to $25,000 have failed to unify the group, and disagreements persist over how to address the so-called marriage penalty, which currently imposes the same cap on joint filers as on single taxpayers.

For GOP reps like LaLota and Mike Lawler, also of New York, resolving the SALT issue is politically non-negotiable.

Medicaid Cuts Draw Moderate Resistance

Similar discord surrounds proposed Medicaid changes. Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee continue to deliberate over how to achieve $880 billion in savings, a task that has sparked pushback from centrist members concerned about the scale of potential cuts.

Representative Juan Ciscomani of Arizona said talks were “making progress” following a meeting with Committee Chair Brett Guthrie. Still, disagreements remain, particularly over proposals to impose per capita caps on Medicaid spending – a sticking point for members like Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, who supports no more than $500 billion in total reductions.

“For them to do any more,” Mr. Bacon said, “they’re going to have to prove it doesn’t hurt people’s health care or hospitals.”

Energy and Commerce is scheduled to hold a markup on May 7, with Republicans on the panel meeting again Thursday morning to try to bridge remaining divides.

Food Stamp Reform in Flux

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has also emerged as a flashpoint. The House Agriculture Committee is under pressure to find $230 billion in savings but has yet to finalize a plan.

Chair Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania is opposed to cutting benefits and instead favors a cost-sharing model that would shift more of the financial burden to states. However, that idea has drawn criticism from both the White House and within the Republican conference.

Mr. Bacon has suggested a simpler solution: scale back the required savings. “They need to lower the $230 [billion] to $100 [billion],” he said.

Mr. Thompson has signaled that he does not want to see changes to the Thrifty Food Plan, a government benchmark for SNAP benefit levels. But the path forward remains unclear as Republicans weigh political risks and the Trump administration awaits feedback on key proposals.

Clock’s ticking guys…

Trump administration officials have indicated they want Congress to complete the reconciliation process by July 4. Yet with major pieces of the package still unresolved, that deadline appears increasingly difficult to meet.

The current impasse reflects a broader challenge facing House Republicans: how to reconcile ideological differences within their own ranks while moving forward on a sprawling policy package. Each committee’s internal debate has created ripple effects, complicating the broader legislative effort.

The coming weeks will test whether the Republican leadership can align its members around the former president’s agenda – or whether the reconciliation effort will stall under the weight of unresolved conflicts.

Trump national security adviser Mike Walz and his deputy, Alex Wong, are out of a job in the White House following an incident in late march in which Waltz ‘inadvertently’ added The Atlantic‘s Jeffrey Goldberg to a Signal chat which included discussions with top national security officials – and VP JD Vance – about plans for a military strike on Houthi targets in Yemem, CBS News  and Politico report (so we’re just waiting for the denial).

According to ‘multiple sources familiar with their departure,’ following the Signal snafu, Waltz admitted behind closed doors to the authenticity of Goldberg’s reporting – however he never offered to resign, and President Trump did not ask him to step down.

Wong, meanwhile, served in the first Trump administration as deputy special representative for North Korea, as well as deputy assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the State Department.

The Signal fiasco set off a firestorm of calls for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to resign…

Goldberg is still trying to blame Hegseth for everything, when Michael Waltz is the one responsible for the entire snafu.

Now why would that be? Why would Goldberg repeatedly attack a victim of the breach instead of HIS FRIEND WHO SECRETLY INVITED HIM IN?

It’s a real mystery. https://t.co/vjq9hO35P6

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) March 25, 2025

Among some 18 individuals listed as members of a Signal group that Goldberg was ‘inadvertently’ invited to included Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Vice President Vance, national security adviser Michael Waltz, Secretary of State is Marco Antonio Rubio, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.

According to Politico, the White House has been discussing names for a replacement ‘for weeks,’ but ‘the plans to remove Waltz potentially as soon as this week gained steam in recent days.’

Were Waltz and Wong ‘Loomered‘?

When SignalGate exposed that Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg was added to a Trump admin group chat, I did some digging.

Alex Wong is Mike Waltz’s Deputy NatSec Advisor. He’s married to a DOJ attorney named Candace Chiu Wong who worked under Biden AND Obama.

You’re not hearing… pic.twitter.com/eTqOJElyV7

— Loomer Unleashed (@LoomerUnleashed) March 30, 2025

SCALP https://t.co/adHatO6Sgm

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) May 1, 2025

*  *   *

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

For years, the mainstream media has been criticized for open political bias, including repeating false narratives and claims. 

There is little evidence that that will change despite falling revenues and audiences. 

That was evident this week as leading journalists continued to raise a dubious claim about the Trump Administration deporting children, including cancer patients.

The media has been promulgating a false claim that children as young as four are being deported.

The Administration immediately stated that the decision rested with the mothers on whether they would take the children or leave them in the United States with family.

Many of the same figures accused of promulgating false stories quickly picked up the spin from the Washington Post.

On NBC’s Meet the Press, Kristen Welker pursued the narrative with Secretary of State Marco Rubio:

KRISTEN WELKER: Let’s talk now about some new reporting that came in overnight. I want just to go through it with you and for our audience. Three U.S. citizen children have been deported with their mothers. Now this is according to The Washington Post. The family’s lawyer says one of them is a 4-year-old with Stage 4 cancer, deported without medication or ability to contact doctors. The family’s lawyers are also saying their clients were denied communication with family and legal representatives before being deported, and it’s raising concerns about the issue of due process. That it’s being violated. So let me ask you, is everyone on U.S. soil, citizens and non-citizens, entitled to due process?

MARCO RUBIO: Yes, of course. But let me tell you, it looks- in immigration standing, the laws are very specific. If you are in the country unlawfully, you have no right to be here and you must be removed. That’s what the law says. Somehow over the last 20 years, we’ve completely lost this notion that somehow- or completely adopted this idea that yes, we have immigration laws but once you come into our country illegally it triggers all kinds of rights that can keep you here indefinitely. That’s why we were being flooded at the border, and we’ve ended that. And that’s why you don’t- you see a historically low number of people not just trying to cross our border, trying to cross the border into Panama, all the way down in the Darien Gap. I mean- i it’s been a huge help for those countries as well. On the headline- that’s a misleading headline. Okay? Three U.S. Citizens, ages 4, 7 and 2 were not deported. Their mothers who were illegally in this country were deported. The children went with their mothers. Those children are U.S. citizens- they can come back into the United States- there’s- their father or someone here who wants to assume them. But ultimately who was deported was the mother- their mothers who were here illegally. The children just went with their mothers. But it wasn’t like- you guys make it sound like ICA agents kicked down the door and grabbed the 2 year-old and threw them on an airplane. That’s misleading. That’s just not true.

That would ordinarily leave a journalist looking at their shoes in embarrassment, but Welker decided to double down and add the claim that children are being denied “due process”:

WELKER: Just to be clear, because I do want to get to the overhaul at the State Department. Is it the U.S. policy to deport children, even U.S. citizens, with their families- and I hear what you’re saying- without due process? Just to be very clear there.

RUBIO: Well- no, no, no. No, no. Again, if someone is in this country unlawfully, illegally, that person gets deported. If that person is with a 2-year-old child or has a 2-year-old child and says “I want to take my child with you- with me,” well then you have two choices. You can say yes, of course, you can take your child whether they’re a citizen or not because it’s your child or you can say yes, you can go, but your child must stay behind. And then your headlines would read, “U.S. holding hostage 2-year old, 4-year-old, 7-year-old, while mother deported.”

There is a great deal of litigation working through the courts on the level of due process required for deportations. The public overwhelmingly supports the deportation of unlawful immigrants and elected Trump based on his pledge to carry out such deportations. Unlawful immigrants often spend years in this country despite orders of deportation or removal. The level of review depends on their status. If they have previously entered unlawfully, they are subject to expedited removal.

The critical point, however, is that the children are not being deported. 

If they were born in this country, they are still treated as U.S. citizens (though the Administration is challenging birthright citizenship in the courts).

Having a child in the United States does not make parents immune from removal or afford them special legal status over other deportees.

Over at CBS, Margaret Brennan (who was criticized for her “fact checks” in the presidential debate) also jumped on the narrative in interviewing Border Czar Tom Homan on Face the Nation:

MARGARET BRENNAN: On Friday, there were three American citizen children, born here, who were deported along with their mothers from Louisiana down to Honduras. And according to advocates, one of them is a 4-year-old child with Stage Four cancer. A rare form of metastatic cancer who was sent back to Honduras without getting to talk to a doctor and without medication. I understand this child’s mother entered this country illegally. But isn’t there some basis for compassionate consideration here that should have allowed for more consultation or treatment?

TOM HOMAN: Well, it certainly is discretionary. I’m not aware of this specific case. But no U.S. citizen child was deported. Deported means you gotta be ordered — reported by the immigration judge. We don’t deport U.S. citizens.

BRENNAN: The mother was deported along with the children.

HOMAN: These children- Children aren’t deported. The mother chose to take the children with her. When you enter the country illegally and you know you are here illegally and you choose to have a U.S. citizen child, that’s on you. That’s not on this administration. If you choose to put your family in that position, that’s on them. But having a U.S. citizen child, after you enter this country illegally, is not a “get out of jail free” card. It doesn’t make you immune from our laws. If that’s the message we send to the entire world, women are going to keep putting themselves at risk and come to this country. We send a message: you can enter the country illegally, that’s okay, you can have due process at great taxpayer expense, get ordered to move, that’s OK. Don’t leave, but have a U.S. citizen child and you are immune from removal? That’s not the way it works.

BRENNAN: So you don’t think there should be compassionate consideration for a 4-year-old child undergoing treatment for cancer?

HOMAN: I didn’t say that. I said ICE officers do have discretion-

BRENNAN: That was the question.

HOMAN: ICE officers do have discretion. I’m not familiar with the specific case. I don’t know what facts surround this case. I was just made aware of this when you mentioned it this morning. I was not aware of that case.

Brennan correctly noted that a court recently found a lack of due process in a child’s case. However, Holman had a reasonable response in citing the mother’s election in this one case to leave with her child.

BRENNAN: On Friday, a federal judge who was appointed by President Trump said a 2-year-old American citizen child had been sent to Honduras with the mother. But the judge said, quote: “there was no meaningful process.” So again, this is another similar situation and dynamic. Shouldn’t there be special care when the deportation cases involve small American-born children?

HOMAN: First of all, I disagree with the judge. There was due process. That female had due process at great taxpayer expense and was ordered by an immigration judge after those hearings. So she had due process. Again, this is Parenting 101. And you can decide to take that child with you or you can decide to leave the child here with a relative or another spouse. Having a child doesn’t make you immune from our laws of the country. American families get separated every day by law enforcement- thousands of times a day. When a parent gets put in jail, the child can’t go with them. If you are an illegal alien and you come to this country and you decide to have a U.S. citizen child, that’s on you. You put yourself in that position.

BRENNAN: Well, when it came to this particular case, you just pointed out that they could have made arrangements. The father tried, actually, to make arrangements as we understand it through our reporting. But he and the mother who were separated, since she was in detention after showing up for her appointment, was only allowed a very brief phone call. The father tried to petition to get the child handed over to an American citizen relative. So the mother had to make this decision and took the child with her. It just seems like there could be some more time frame here around due process allowed. That’s what the judge is saying, is saying- there should have been more of a process here.

HOMAN: There was due process. The 2-year-old baby- the two year old baby was left with the mother because the mother signed a document requesting her 2-year-old baby go with her. That’s the parent’s decision. I don’t think the judge knows the specifics of this case. The 2-year-old went with the mom. The mom signed a paper saying, “I want my 2-year-old to go with me.” That’s a parent’s decision. It’s not a government decision, it’s a parent’s decision.

BRENNAN: The father wrote a note. Anyhow, we have to leave it there, Director. Thank you for your time today. We’ll be right back.

It is important to note that these are two very different cases that were blended into the coverage.

In the second case, the government insists that there was no prior arrangement for the child to be left with the family and that the mother made this decision.

ICE should endeavor to accommodate such requests and there should always be an inquiry into allegations that these women were prevented from making arrangements for their children to remain in the country. However, there will also be practical limits in addressing those issues in the midst of a removal.

If Homan is correct, the mother was in the system long before the actual removal. The father “sending a note” at the end of that process is worth looking into, but it is hardly surprising that the removal proceeded with the mother’s consent.

The same narrative was playing over at ABC as Martha Raddatz had this exchange with former DoJ spokesperson Sarah Isgur:

MARTHA RADDATZ: Sarah, I want to turn here to some information that has been in The Washington Post about deportations of very young children who are American citizens. A 2-year-old, a 4-year-old, a 7-year-old sent back to Honduras. Is that legal?

SARAH ISGUR: This is something our immigration system deals with nearly every day. U.S. citizen children have to make that decision with their parents of whether they’re going to stay. The parent has the decision. We do not allow illegal alien parents to stay just because they have custody over U.S. citizen children, and at least one of these cases with the 2-year-old, the mother was the one who made the decision to take her daughter with her. The father is the one saying he wanted the daughter to stay here. Often times, it’s going to look more like a custody dispute than an immigration question.

Again, as Isgur correctly points out, this is the election of the parents who are being removed.

Critics have pushed back on these interviews, noting how the media seemed only marginally interested in thousands of children lost in the system under the Biden Administration as millions poured over the border.

The coverage suggested that children were being thrown on planes to be dumped in some foreign land.

The Washington Post, which is cited for the story, has been repeatedly accused of pushing misleading or false narratives. There was a recent riot in the newsroom when owner Jeff Bezos demanded that the newspaper return to more balanced coverage.

The most telling condemnation came from Post columnist Philip Bump, who wrote “what the actual f**k.” Bump has been repeatedly accused of false claims and previously had a meltdown in an interview when confronted about past false claims. After I wrote a column about the litany of such false claims, the Post surprised many of us by stating that it stood by all of Bump’s reporting, including false columns on the Lafayette Park protests, Hunter Biden’s laptop, and other stories. That was long after other media debunked the claims, but the Post stood by the false reporting.

We have previously discussed the sharp change in culture at the Post, which became an outlet that pushed anti-free speech views and embraced advocacy journalism. The result was that many moderates and conservatives stopped reading the newspaper.

In my book on free speech, I discuss at length how the Post and the mainstream media have joined an alliance with the government and corporations in favor of censorship and blacklisting. I once regularly wrote for the Post and personally witnessed the sharp change in editorial priorities as editors delayed or killed columns with conservative or moderate viewpoints.

Last year, that culture was vividly on display when the newspaper offered no objection or even qualification after its reporter, Cleve Wootson Jr., appeared to call upon the White House to censor the interview of Elon Musk with former President Donald Trump. Under the guise of a question, Wootson told White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre “I think that misinformation on Twitter is not just a campaign issue…it’s an America issue.”

The baby hoax shows that little has (or likely will) changed. In the meantime, the public is moving on. New media is rising as mainstream media audiences shrink. Journalists and columnists are increasingly writing for each other as polling shows trust in the media is at an all-time low.

Robert Lewis, a British media executive who joined the Post, reportedly got into a “heated exchange” with a staffer. Lewis explained that, while reporters were protesting measures to expand readership, the very survival of the paper was now at stake:

“We are going to turn this thing around, but let’s not sugarcoat it. It needs turning around,” Lewis said. “We are losing large amounts of money. Your audience has halved in recent years. People are not reading your stuff. Right. I can’t sugarcoat it anymore.”

It simply does not matter. The media continues to vigorously saw on the branch upon which it is sitting.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Following a slew of regional Fed surveys (and various other sentiment readings) sending ‘soft’ data dramatically lower (as ‘hard’ data continues to strengthen), this morning’s Manufacturing PMIs are expected to signal further weakness.

Source: Bloomberg

The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI did indeed disappoint, sliding from 50.7 flash print to 50.2 – exactly in line with March’s final print (but below the 50.5 expected).

ISM’s Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, printing 48.7 (down from the 49.0 in March but better than the 47.9 expectations) – lowest since Nov 2024.

So Hard data up, PMI flat, ISM down… take your pick

But none of the three factors point to a recession:

“The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the April reading (48.7 percent) corresponds to a change of +1.8 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says ISM’s Timothy Fiore.

Under the hood, all the main components beat expectations with New Orders and Employment improving and Prices Paid rising (but less than expected)…

Admittedly, respondents are fearful of the impact of tariffs to come:

• “Uncertainty over tariffs is providing a big challenge from both Tier-1 suppliers we will have to pay tariffs on directly and Tier-2 suppliers that will try to pass tariffs through to us in the form of price increases and tariff surcharges.” [Chemical Products]

• “Tariffs impacting operations — specifically, delayed border crossings and duties calculations that are complex and not completely understood. As a result, we are potentially overpaying duties. Unsure of potential drawbacks. Implementation of tariffs and their application is sudden and abrupt. The business is taking countermeasures.” [Transportation Equipment]

• “Business climate is apprehensive, and with tariff costs implemented, all inbound Chinese shipments are on hold. It is not feasible for our business or customers to sustain the pricing required to provide an acceptable margin.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

• “The most important topic is tariffs. Risks include margin erosion due to rising operational costs and freight delays disrupting delivery timelines. Supplier relationships are strained by pain-share negotiations, and competitors are gaining share by importing from lower-tariff regions.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

• “Tariff whiplash is causing us major issues with customers. The two issues we are seeing: (1) customers are holding back orders to understand what is happening with tariffs on their products or (2) they are forcing us to accept the tariffs, which causes us to ‘no quote’ the job as we cannot take on that type of risk for an order.” [Machinery]

• “There is a lot of concern about the inflationary impacts from tariffs in our industry. Domestic producers are charging more for everything because they can.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

• “Tariff trade wars are incredibly volatile, quickly changing, and disrupting a ton of our current work. We are 90 percent sourced out of China, and the cost models keep changing every week. We are flying to visit suppliers in a few weeks to negotiate current terms and pricing, as well as develop more long-term, strategic plans to reduce risk in the region.” [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]

• “Demand is slightly lower than plan, but it has been steady amid tariff concerns. Significant time has been spent quantifying the impact of changing tariff rates. Our costs will increase, and we are discussing how to share that impact across suppliers and customers.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

• “The recently imposed 145-percent tariff rate on Chinese imports is significantly affecting our 2025 profitability. Due to the complexity of our parts and the lack of alternate sources, we are unable to find any alternate suppliers — especially at a reasonable cost — to our current Chinese sources. Incoming orders have slowed due to market volatility and uncertainty.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“Manufacturing continued to flat-line in April amid worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising costs,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“Factory output fell for a second successive month as tariffs were widely blamed on a slump in export orders and curbed spending among customers more broadly amid rising uncertainty. 

But, even they were forced to admit a small silver lining in the report…

“Although the survey saw some producers report evidence of beneficial tariff-related switching of customer demand away from imports, any such sales increase was countered by worries over tariff-related disruptions to supply chains and lost export sales. 

This served to drive business confidence about prospects in the year ahead down sharply to the gloomiest for 10 months. 

And just like all the other surveys, PMI respondents sees Prices rising…

“Concerns have also spiked in terms of input costs, especially for imported materials and components, due to the triple whammy of tariff-related price hikes, supply shortages, and the weaker dollar. 

“Manufacturers are responding to these changing demand, supply and cost conditions by raising their selling prices and trimming headcounts to help protect their margins.”

So, take what you will from this – are these data points a reflection of reality or the incessant FUD being peddled by the mainstream media?

If you need a reminder, as we noted earlier, there is a massive gap between what CEOs are saying and what CEOs are doing…

Corporate CEOs are just like Long Onlies on Wall Street: everyone is “apocalyptic”, nobody is selling….
only here everyone is “apocalyptic”, and nobody is firing pic.twitter.com/Wtu0uNeRqt

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 1, 2025

Will CEOs suddenly announce massive waves of layoffs, or, with stocks now having erased all of the post-Liberation Day losses, will CEOs suddenly find a renewed optimism?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

What was the undeniable best photo of 2024?

The image of President Trump, fist raised in defiance, still alive after being shot with blood streaming down his face, Secret Service members rushing him to safety as he screamed “FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT.”

Yeah, that was objectively the photo of the year. Perhaps photo of the decade, perhaps of the century.

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump raises his fist as he is rushed off stage after an assassination attempt during a campaign rally in Butler, Pa. @apnews pic.twitter.com/VoAYqRC4QV

— Evan Vucci (@evanvucci) July 14, 2024

However, because the legacy media is so riddled with leftist activists suffering from stage 5 Trump Derangement Syndrome, they decided it wasn’t photo of the year.

Instead, the White House Correspondents’ Association picked a black and white photograph of pudding brain Joe Biden dementia shuffling away from a podium, presumably lost as usual.

Left: photo of the year, according to the White House Correspondents’ Association.

Right: photo of the year , according to anyone with a functioning brain cell. pic.twitter.com/jjnp8vLnAi

— Legal Phil (@Legal_Fil) April 28, 2025

Yes, really.

It’s not even a good photograph.

It’s taken from too far away and on a smaller device you have to zoom in to see who the subject is. 

It also has no remarkable context. It’s just Biden doing an everyday activity that he did for years.

The description states:

The WHCA award for presidential news coverage by visual journalists, which recognizes a video or photo journalist for uniquely covering the presidency at the White House or in the field went to Doug Mills of The New York Times for an image taken of former President Joe Biden as he wrestled with historic challenges, including international crises, amid calls for him to end his reelection campaign.

“Wrestled”? “Historic”?

Come on.

The Trump photo wasn’t even given an honorable mention. That went to a photo of Elon Musk jumping in the air with a grin on his face at the second Butler Trump rally.

Again, presumably because they also hate him so much.

It is so utterly preposterous that it is a perfect distillation of everything wrong with our media.

Insular, driven by pique, willing to look like fools if it means not doing anything that might be to Trump’s benefit—but ultimately magnifying what they are trying to hide.

— Legal Phil (@Legal_Fil) April 28, 2025

That is probably the number 1 comment I’ve received, so it definitely is not you!

— Legal Phil (@Legal_Fil) April 29, 2025

You don’t have to like Trump to recognize that this photo is iconic.

Theirs is a very toddler view of the world.

— Jason Hamby (@IPAzRGR8) April 29, 2025

That is why the honorable mention was of a photo of Trump’s October rally in Butler.

I understand thinking is difficult, but no need to involve me in your struggles.

— Legal Phil (@Legal_Fil) April 29, 2025

If they wanted a Biden photo for photo of the year, this is the one they should have used: pic.twitter.com/7q24ZveHkg

— Louis Dunn (@LouADunn) April 29, 2025

First time seeing the Biden’s picture. That is how irrelevant it was.

— Jeremy Pacheco (@Jeremypacheco) April 29, 2025

The second photo, with a person raising their fist before an American flag, feels more emotionally authentic due to its vibrant, unscripted energy, evoking triumph and solidarity. The first photo, a formal White House scene, conveys historical significance but may seem staged,…

— Grok (@grok) April 30, 2025

Ridiculous – but appropriate they would select Biden, head down, walking away in shame!

Trumps photo by far is photo of the year!

— AuntLizR (@r_aunt2512) April 29, 2025

Should have been this one for Biden. pic.twitter.com/sUYcCbEpDi

— Carlton Hinds (@methuselaschild) April 29, 2025

The one on the left does capture Biden’s mental deficiencies as he walks into a fireplace.

— Mb78 (@Mb7877907854) April 29, 2025

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

The Kremlin has said that what the newly signed minerals deal between Ukraine and Washington does is effectively force Kiev to pay for all future military aid.

“Trump has broken the Kyiv regime to the point where they will have to pay for U.S. aid with mineral resources,” Medvedev, a former Russian president and current deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, stated on Telegram.

“Now they will have to pay for military supplies with the national wealth of a disappearing country,” he said of the Ukrainians.

As of yet, the full contents of the newly inked deal, finalized and signed late in the day Wednesday, have not been revealed, but it gives the United States preferential access to new Ukrainian minerals deals and its natural resources like oil and gas, and will fund investment in Ukraine’s reconstruction.

But the Zelensky government was able to get something crucial dropped at the last minute. As CNN details, “Compared to earlier drafts, the final agreement is reportedly less lopsided in favor of the US and is not as far-reaching. It stipulates that future American military assistance to Ukraine will count as part of the US investment into the fund, rather than calling for reimbursement for past assistance.”

President Trump’s initial reaction after the signing was seen in the following:

Speaking Wednesday in a call with NewsNation, Trump said he made the deal to “protect” Washington’s contribution to the Ukrainian war effort. “We made a deal today where we get, you know, much more in theory, than the $350 billion but I wanted to be protected,” Trump said.

“I didn’t want to be out there and look foolish,” he continued, voicing the administration’s longtime complaints that Zelensky only asks for “more and more” – and yet is still losing the war.

Meanwhile, the ceasefire process is still basically stalled, as neither side has backed off of their demands and conditions. President Zelensky has recently reiterated that he can’t even legally give up Crimea.

However, Trump presidential special envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg has told Fox News that Ukraine is ready to make territorial concessions, but wouldn’t see any ceded territory as a permanent situion. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the signing of the “minerals deal” shows there is “no daylight” between the US and Ukraine. So that’s a disappointment for anyone who might have wished for greater daylight between the US and Ukraine

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) May 1, 2025

“Not de jure forever, but de facto, because the Russians actually occupy that and they’ve agreed to that. They know that if they have a ceasefire in place, which means you sit on the ground that you currently hold, that’s what they’re willing to go to,” the envoy said. “You have your line set, and they’re willing to go there,” Kellogg emphasized. 

But it’s clear the Kremlin sees this as an issue of sovereignty and permanence, given President Putin has described the four annexed territories and Crimea as “ours forever”.

So far this year, employers have announced 602,493, the highest year-to-date total since 2020 when 1,017,812 job cuts were recorded, according to the latest data from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

It is up 87% from the 322,043 cuts announced during the same period in 2024.

The Government leads all sectors in job cuts this year with 282,227; 281,452 of which are attributed to DOGE-related cost-cutting. 

This is up 680% from the 36,195 job cuts announced in this sector through April 2024. In April, the number of job cuts announced in this industry was 2,782. DOGE actions were attributed to 2,731, while the rest were attributed to “Economic Conditions” and “Cost-Cutting.”

• “DOGE Actions” lead all job cut reasons in 2025 with 283,172; 2,919 of which occurred in April. Another 6,945 cuts were attributed to “DOGE Downstream Impact” through April, primarily at Non-Profits and Education organizations. These reasons combined (290,117) make up 48% of all job cuts announced so far in 2025. 

• Market/Economic Conditions were cited for 95,348 job cuts, as economic uncertainty, consumer spending, and trade difficulties impact US-companies. 

Tariffs were cited for 1,413 cuts so far this year, with 1,350 occurring in April. Restructuring accounted for 67,627, and 60,551 were due to store, unit, or location “Closing.”

This weak labor market data comes on the heels of yesterday’s dismal ADP Employment report.

This morning we see initial jobless claims jump notably too – to 241k (higher than the 223k expected). While not out of recent norms, this is a sizable jump…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, New York dominated the surge in initial claims…

Continuing jobless claims also surged last week, back above 1.9 million Americans – its highest since Nov 2021…

Continuing claims for the ‘Deep TriState’ rose significantly last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Still, in context, it seems CEOs are all willing to whine about the economy but their actions speak louder than their words…

“Though the Government cuts are front and center, we saw job cuts across sectors last month. Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology. Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending,” Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

…and none of this is a good sign for tomorrow’s all-important payrolls print.

US equity futures are sharply higher, erasing all of April’s losses on blowout earnings from MSFT and META, and relief over signs the Trump administration is stepping back from its harshest tariff threats. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 1.2% to 5655, the highest level since before Trump’s Liberation Day announcement and pointing to an eighth consecutive session of gains for the cash index; Nasdaq futures gained 1.7%, as META and MSFT added +6.3% and +7.8%, respectively; most Mag 7 names, NVDA (3.7%) and semis are higher given META’s CapEx increase and MSFT’s reiteration on CapEx guidance. The dollar is higher after the BOJ finally flipped dovish and slashed its growth target pushing USDJPY to 144.5 this morning. It’s light on overnight news as most of Europe is closed today ex-UK along with China; US/Ukraine signed an agreement over the country’s natural resources, UK Manf PMI printed better but remained in contraction, and Trump reiterated that there is a “very good chance” of a deal with China on NewsNation last night. Commodities are mostly lower: WTI -1.2%; Gold -1.7%. The US economic calendar includes weekly jobless claims (8:30am), April manufacturing PMI (9:45am), ISM manufacturing and March construction spending (10am). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting. Apple and Amazon results are due after the market close.

In premarket trading, the Magnificent Seven are mostly higher: Microsoft (MSFT) gains 8% after the company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly sales and profit growth. Meta (META) jumps 6% after the company’s advertising sales quelled Wall Street concerns about the impact of the Trump administration’s trade war. Apple was the only tech giant in the red, falling 1.4% after a federal judge said in a ruling that it violated a court order requiring it to open up the App Store to third-party payment options (other Mag7s are up Nvidia +4.6%, Amazon +3.7%, Alphabet +1%, Tesla +0.7%).
McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) declines 1.4% as sales fell in the first quarter, reflecting a deterioration in consumer sentiment that’s making it harder for restaurants to lure in diners. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) drops 5% after the company cut its earnings outlook. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Align Technology rises 10% after the Invisalign company reported quarterly shipments that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Confluent Inc. falls 10% after the provider of a streaming platform gave an outlook for second-quarter subscription revenue that fell shy of expectations. First quarter results showed a slowdown in additions of customers with $100,000 in annual recurring revenue.
• CVS Health rises 8% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings per-share-guidance for the full year and reported better-than-expected results for the first quarter
• E2open shares are up 34% after WiseTech Global, in response to media reports about its being in discussions to acquire E2open, said it was participating in a strategic review process.
• KKR & Co. rises 2% after the investment firm reported assets under management that beat the average analyst estimate. Fee-related earnings also came in above analysts’ expectations.
• Qualcomm falls 5% as the biggest maker of chips that run smartphones gave a tepid revenue prediction for the current quarter, underscoring concerns that tariffs will hurt demand for its products.
• Robinhood gains 4% after the trading platform’s earnings largely beat expectations, with analysts highlighting positive trends in April amid market volatility and a boost from a lower tax rate.
• Shake Shack falls 3% after posting first-quarter results.
• Wayfair gains 5% after posting adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

Tech giants added to investor optimism that deals between the US and its partners would limit the damage from Trump’s trade war. Wall Street ended a tumultuous month on a day in which the S&P 500 erased an intraday drop of more than 2% to close 0.2% higher. Traders sought reassurance in bets on Federal Reserve easing after the US economy contracted for the first time since 2022. 

“So far we’re seeing big tech companies deliver on earnings, which is reassuring, and it’s this reassurance which is supporting equity market futures,” said Georgios Leontaris, chief investment officer for EMEA at HSBC Global Private Banking. “The other element of the story beyond earnings is obviously the ongoing debate as to whether we’ve seen peak tariff noise or not.”

Apple results are due after the market close. Analysts will be listening closely for any further detail on how the company, whose supply chain is reliant on China, Vietnam, and India, views the impact of tariffs

The White House said it was nearing an announcement of a first tranche of trade deals with partners that would reduce planned tariffs. Sentiment was also helped by a report that the US has been proactively reaching out to China through various channels. At the same time, Trump said he would not rush deals to appease nervous investors.

The US and Ukraine reached a deal over access to the country’s natural resources, offering a measure of assurance to officials in Kyiv who had feared Trump would pull back his support in peace talks with Russia.

Elsewhere, most markets in Europe and many in Asia are shut for holidays. The UK’s FTSE 100 index was steady, following 13 days of gains, the longest winning streak since 2017. Gains in material and industrial names are offset by losses in energy and health care. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.3%. the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.9% against the greenback after the Bank of Japan pushed back the timing for when it expects to reach its inflation target and slashed its growth forecasts. The pound and euro are little changed.

In rates, treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year yields down 2 bp to 4.14%. Treasury spreads remain within a basis point of Wednesday’s close, as gains remain broad-based across the curve. Gilts are steady, with UK 10-year borrowing costs flat at 4.44%. Treasury futures edge higher into the early US session, on the day’s highs with yields lower by 1bp to 2bp across the curve. US session focus includes weekly jobless claims along with both ISM and PMI manufacturing reports.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 2.3% to below $57 a barrel; the drop followed the biggest monthly drop since 2021, as signs that the Saudi-led OPEC+ alliance may be entering a prolonged period of higher output added to concerns the trade war will hurt demand.  Spot gold is down $65 at $3,223/oz, falling for a third day on signs of potential trade-talk progress between the US and several other nations, quelling demand for havens even as signs of slowdowns have emerged in the largest economies. Bitcoin rises 1% and above $95,000. 

Looking at today’s calendar, we get the April Challenger job cuts (7:30am), weekly jobless claims (8:30am), April manufacturing PMI (9:45am), ISM manufacturing and March construction spending (10am). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +1.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.6%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.3%
• CAC 40 +0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.15%
• VIX -0.9 points at 23.85
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1226.38
• euro little changed at $1.1324
• WTI crude -2% at $57.02/barrel

Top Overnight news

• The US and Ukraine signed an agreement over access to the country’s natural resources. The deal will see the US will get first claim on profits transferred into a jointly managed investment fund that’s intended in part to reimburse the US for future military assistance. BBG
• House Republicans are seriously considering proposals to further limit tax deductions that companies can take for their highest-paid workers’ compensation, expanding restrictions that now apply only to a handful of current or former executives making more than $1 million, according to people familiar with the discussions. WSJ
• US President Trump said we are going to have ‘Made in the USA’ like never before and he stated give us a little time to get moving regarding the economy. Furthermore, Trump said interest rates should go down and reiterated that “he (Powell) should reduce interest rates, I understand them better than him”, as well as noted it would be nice for people wanting to buy homes and things.
• There was some chatter that the House Ways and Means Committee is going to mark up their tax package on May 8th: Punchbowl.
• Elon Musk said he’s considering sending DOGE to the Fed, citing a costly renovation of its headquarters as an example of potential government waste. BBG
• The yen dropped as much as 1.2% after the BOJ pushed back the timing for when it expects to reach its inflation target and Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke of uncertainties due to tariffs. For now, policymakers kept rates at 0.5%. BBG
• China feels the white house is “too divided” on trade policy and will hold off on entering serious trade talks with the US while it waits to see which of Trump’s advisors will have his ear and how other countries respond to the 90 day pause on tariffs. SCMP
• Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices, five sources with knowledge of the talks said. This possible shift in Saudi policy could suggest a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, a major change after five years spent balancing the market through deep output as a leader of the OPEC+ group of oil producers. RTRS
• The EU is planning to share a paper with the US next week that will set out a package of proposals to kick-start trade negotiations with the Trump administration. The paper will propose lowering trade and non-tariff barriers, boosting European investments in the US, cooperating on global challenges such as tackling China’s steel overcapacity and purchasing US goods like liquefied natural gas and technologies. BBG
• Janet Yellen has warned that Trump’s tariffs will have a “tremendously adverse” impact on the US economy as they “hobble” companies that rely on critical mineral supplies from China. She added: “I’m not yet ready to say that I’m forecasting a recession, but certainly the odds have gone way up. FT
• Microsoft beat estimates and showed strong growth in its key Azure cloud business, while Meta also topped estimates and raised its full-year capex forecast as it continues to invest in AI. With first-quarter earnings in full swing the scorecard so far has shown resilience amid Trump’s trade war. The next big test comes after the close, when Apple and Amazon report. BBG

Tariffs/Trade

• US President Trump reiterated there is a very good chance that they will make a deal with China and any deal has to be on their terms, while he added that they are negotiating with India, South Korea and Japan.
• US President Trump said after a certain amount of time, there will be a tariff wall for pharmaceutical companies.
• USTR Greer said it is a matter of weeks not months to have initial trade deals announced and he is meeting with Japan, Guyana and Saudi Arabia on Thursday and with the Philippines on Friday. Greer added he wouldn’t say they are ‘finish-line’ close on an India trade deal but noted he has a standing call with India’s Trade Minister and said they are working closely with the UK and moving quickly with countries ready to move forward on trade. Furthermore, Greer said Canadian PM Carney is a serious person and that President Trump wants a healthy relationship in North America, while he added there are no official talks with China yet and that harmful foreign trade practices, including those in China, need to be addressed.
• China is to hold off on entering serious trade discussions with the US while it waits to see which of US President Trump’s advisers will have his ear and how other countries will respond to the 90-day pause on tariffs, according to a source cited by SCMP
• US Senate narrowly rejected a bipartisan measure to block Trump tariffs with the vote count at 49-49.

Notable Earnings

• eBay Inc (EBAY): Shares +0.5% pre-market. Q1 profit beat estimates, and revenue also increased. The company announced that Peggy Alford was appointed CFO, replacing Steve Priest, as the company adjusts its leadership. It reported Q1 adj. EPS of 1.38 (exp. 1.34), Q1 revenue of USD 2.6bln (exp. 2.55bln). Q1 gross merchandise volume USD 18.75bln (exp. 18.52bln); International GMV USD 9.69bln (exp. 9.58bln); US GMV USD 9.07bln (exp. 8.92bln). In Q1, it had 134mln active buyers (exp. 134.17mln). Sees Q2 revenue between USD 2.59-2.66bln (exp. 2.60bln), and sees Q2 adj. EPS between 1.24-1.31 (exp. 1.29). (Newswires)
• Meta Platforms (META) – Shares +6.5% pre-market following a Q1 beat, while Q2 guidance was in line with expectations. Q1 revenue rose +16% to USD 42.31bln (exp. USD 41.4bln), with EPS of USD 6.43 (exp. USD 5.28); Q1 advertising sales were USD 41.39bln (exp. 40.55bln). Exec said daily users reached 3.43bln, while Threads has now has more than 350mln monthly active users. FY25 CapEx guidance was increased to USD 64–72bn for 2025 (prev. saw 60-65bln), and exec said that increased CapEx will bring data centre capacity online quicker. On AI, exec said its Meta AI app is focused on scaling and engagement this year, with business integration planned for next year; nearly 1bln monthly active users now use Meta AI across its apps. Exec also said that the EC’s ruling may hit its EU business, where it will need to make modifications to ads model which could have significant impact to European business and revenue as early as Q3, while Asia ad spend fell amid regulatory uncertainty. Sees Q2 revenue between USD 42.5bln-45.5bln (exp. 44.41bln), lowered its FY25 total expenses view to USD 113bln-118bln (prev. saw 114-119bln). (Newswires)
• Microsoft (MSFT) – Shares +8.1% pre-market following a beat on Q3 sales and profits, driven by 20% cloud growth amid strong AI demand. The tech giant reported Q3 adj. EPS of 3.46 (exp. 3.21), Q3 revenue USD 70.1bln (exp. 68.41bln); Q3 CapEx USD 16.75bln (exp. 16.28bln). Azure and other cloud services revenue (Ex-FX) surged +33% (exp. +31%), with Azure growth attributable to AI 16pts (exp. 15.6ppts); the majority of Azure outperformance in Q3 was in its non-AI business. Q3 Cloud sales USD 42.4bln (exp. 42.22bln), Q3 Intelligent Cloud sales USD 26.8bln (exp. 25.99bln). Exec said H2 total CapEx view remains unchanged vs January guidance. Sees Q4 revenue between 73.3bln-73.4bln (exp. 72.0bln), Q4 CapEx expected to increase on a sequential basis, Q4 cloud gross margin expected to be 67% (down Y/Y), Q4 Intelligent Cloud revenue seen between USD 28.75bln-29.05bln (exp. 28.52bln), while Q4 Azure and other cloud services revenue growth is expected to be 34-35% in constant currency. Exec said that FY26 CapEx is expected to grow at a lower rate than FY25. (Newswires)
• Qualcomm (QCOM) – Shares +5.7% pre-market after it topped Q2 top- and bottom-line estimates, but Q3 guidance was light, and it sees a sales hit from US tariffs ahead. It reported Q2 adj. EPS 2.85 (exp. 2.80), Q2 revenue USD 10.84bln (exp. 10.60bln); Q2 QCT revenue USD 9.47bln (exp. 9.23bln), Q2 QTL revenue USD 1.32bln (exp. 1.35bln); Q2 Internet of Things revenue USD 1.58bln (exp. 1.45bln), Handsets revenue USD 6.93bln (exp. 6.84bln), Automotive revenue USD 959mln (exp. 909.8mln). Sees Q3 adj. EPS 2.60-2.80 (exp. 2.66), Q3 revenue between USD 9.9-10.7bln (exp. 10.33bln), sees Q3 QCT revenue between USD 8.7-9.3bln (exp. 8.98bln), and sees Q3 QTL revenue between 1.15-1.35bln (exp. 1.3bln). (Newswires)

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

APAC stocks traded higher but with gains capped in severely thinned conditions owing to mass holiday closures across the region and in Europe for Labour Day. ASX 200 eked mild gains as the outperformance in tech, real estate and consumer staples was offset by losses across the commodity-related sectors, while trade data was mixed as Australian monthly exports returned to growth but imports contracted. Nikkei 225 advanced at the open after having reclaimed the 36,000 level and with further upside seen after the BoJ policy announcement where the central bank kept rates unchanged at 0.50% and provided some dovish rhetoric despite maintaining its rate hike signal.

Top Asian News

• BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected, with the decision made by unanimous vote, while it said it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast and will conduct monetary policy appropriately from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target. BoJ said Japan’s economic growth is likely to moderate and underlying consumer inflation is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027, as well as noted that uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economy and prices remains high with risks to the economic outlook and inflation outlook are skewed to the downside. Furthermore, it lowered its evaluation of the economic outlook and warned that a prolonged period of high uncertainties regarding trade and other policies could lead firms to focus more on cost-cutting, and as a result, moves to reflect price rises in wages could also weaken. In terms of the Outlook Report projections, the Real GDP median forecast for Fiscal 2025 was cut to 0.5% from 1.1% and the Fiscal 2026 estimate was cut to 0.7% from 1.0%, while the Core CPI median forecast for Fiscal 2025 was cut to 2.2% from 2.4% and the Fiscal 2026 forecast was cut to 1.7% from 2.0%.
• BoJ’s Ueda Press Conference: Uncertainty from trade policy has heightened sharply. Expect to keep raising rates if the economy and prices move as projected. Timing to attain the underlying 2% inflation target will be delayed. Price goal timing delay doesn’t mean delay in hikes; timing of trend inflation does not necessarily correlate with the timing of a hike.

Due to Labour Day across Europe, cash and derivatives markets are closed across Euronext services and those run by other European exchanges such as Deutsche Boerse, SIX and Nasdaq (Scandinavia closed ex-Copenhagen). The UK’s FTSE 100 is one of the few indices in Europe which is open today; currently flat.

Top European news

• EU is to present trade proposals to the US next week, according to Bloomberg citing officials.

FX

• DXY is up for a third consecutive session with the USD firmer vs. all major peers. On the trade front, the White House administration continues to talk up the possibilities of imminent trade deals. Reports suggest that the US reached out to China recently for tariff talks. However, Chinese press notes that China is to hold off on entering serious trade discussions with the US while it waits to see which of US President Trump’s advisers will have his ear and how other countries will respond to the 90-day pause on tariffs. Ahead, Challenger layoffs, weekly claims and ISM manufacturing PMI are all due. DXY ventured as high as 100.08, but has recently waned off that high to a current 99.75 level.
• EUR is essentially flat vs. the USD with most of Europe away from the market on account of Labour Day. In terms of macro updates for the region, Bloomberg reported that the EU is to present trade proposals to the US next week. EUR/USD hit a trough overnight at 1.1288 before returning to the 1.13 handle.
• JPY is the clear laggard across the majors after the BoJ opted to stand pat on rates (as expected) whilst cutting its Real GDP and Core CPI estimates in its quarterly outlook report; the FY 2025 GDP estimate saw a sizable downgrade to 0.5% from 1.1%. At the follow-up press conference by Governor Ueda, USD/JPY continued its ascent to a peak at 144.75 with Ueda noting that the timing to attain the underlying 2% inflation target will be delayed. However, upside was trimmed after he stated that a delay in the timing of the price goal doesn’t mean a delay in hikes.
• GBP is flat vs. the USD with incremental macro drivers remaining light. On the trade front, USTR Greer said the US is working closely with the UK and moving quickly with countries ready to move forward on trade. Local elections are taking place in the UK today with a focus on the extent of Conservative losses, the performance of Labour and how much ground the Reform Party can make; not expected to be a market mover. Cable has delved as low as 1.3275 but has since reclaimed the 1.33 mark and now sits around 1.3320. UK Manufacturing PMI was subject to an upward revision, but ultimately had little impact on the GBP.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the broadly firmer USD and tracking losses in global peers. AUD saw little follow-through from mixed trade data as Australian monthly exports returned to growth but imports contracted.

Fixed Income

• The BoJ left rates unchanged as expected. JGBs were bid though as the accompanying forecasts were lowered for both Real GDP and Core CPI, pushing back the timing for when underlying inflation is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target. In totality, this lifted JGBs from 141.05 to 141.34 though the upside did dissipate almost entirely in the gap between the announcement and Governor Ueda. Ueda for the most part stuck to the script of the statement and made it very clear that the BoJ is facing significant uncertainty in its forecasts. Ueda’s reiteration that there will be a delay to attaining the underlying 2% inflation target sparked another bout of dovishness, lifting JGBs to a fresh 141.42 peak.
• A very slow start to the session for USTs given the absence of European participants for Labour Day (China also away). USTs are firmer and at a 112-12 peak, but one that is shy of the 112-16 high from Wednesday. As was the case on Wednesday, any concerted move higher enters a patch of clean air before resistance at 114-03+ and 114-10 from early-April.
• Gilts opened higher by around 30 ticks before extending a handful more to a 93.86 peak, influenced by the upside seen in JGBs post-BoJ/Ueda. On the data front, April’s Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher (but still in contractionary territory) and a significant jump in Mortgage Lending during March; the latter comes alongside a 3bps drop in the effective rate on new and outstanding mortgages to 4.5% and 3.84% respectively during the period and ahead of Stamp Duty alterations which kicked in alongside the new FY in April.

Commodities

• Crude is on the backfoot and trading lower by around USD 1.00/bbl, in a continuation of the prior day’s downside. As a reminder, oil prices slumped on Wednesday following reports that Saudi officials briefed allies and industry experts that the kingdom can sustain a prolonged period of low oil prices.
• Gold is pressured given the positive risk tone in the US and as the Dollar makes modest gains. Yellow metal has been as low as USD 3.2k/oz, over USD 100/oz from the week’s opening levels despite the series of soft data for the US as the inflationary part of the stagflationary narrative and modest yield curve steepening weighs on XAU.
• Base metals were contained trade overnight given the mass holiday closures and absence of the metals largest buyer, China, for a long weekend (May 1st-5th). This morning, 3M LME Copper has picked up tracking the broader macro tone with US futures strong after earnings, 3M LME Copper back above the USD 9.2k mark.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US Secretary of Defence Hegseth said Iran will pay the consequence for supporting Houthis.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US and Ukraine signed an agreement on access to natural resources and to establish a US-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund. It was also reported that the US Treasury said the Treasury Department and US International Development Finance Corporation will work with Ukraine to finalise programme governance and advance the partnership, while it added that the agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centred on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term. Furthermore, Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US–Ukraine economic partnership agreement allows the United States to invest alongside Ukraine to “unlock Ukraine’s growth assets”.
• US Senator Graham, who is a close ally of President Trump, is forging ahead on a plan to impose new sanctions on Russia and steep tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, gas and uranium, while the bill also would impose a 500% tariff on imported goods from any country that purchases Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products, according to WSJ.

US Event Calendar

• 7:30 am: Apr Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 204.8%, revised 204.78%
• 8:30 am: Apr 26 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 223k, prior 222k
• 8:30 am: Apr 19 Continuing Claims, est. 1864.5k, prior 1841k
• 9:45 am: Apr F S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 50.5, prior 50.7
• 10:00 am: Apr ISM Manufacturing, est. 47.9, prior 49
• 10:00 am: Apr ISM Prices Paid, est. 73, prior 69.4
• 10:00 am: Mar Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.7%

Authored by Frank Fong via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Chinese regime is increasingly sending groups that pose as nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to the United Nations in an effort to suppress criticism of its human rights record, according to a report published by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) on April 28.

The 10-month investigation, a partnership between the ICIJ and 42 media organizations, examined China’s transnational repression under Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Part of the report focused on the communist regime’s subversion campaign against the U.N. Human Rights Council through “a growing army of Chinese NGOs.”

“Since Xi’s reelection as Communist Party general secretary in 2017 and president the following year, China has sought greater influence within the U.N. human rights system and become more aggressive in silencing dissent,” the report reads.

ICIJ found that the number of Chinese NGOs holding consultative status with the U.N. has nearly doubled since 2018.

NGOs can participate in U.N. meetings, make oral statements, and submit written statements before U.N. sessions after obtaining consultative status, which is granted by the U.N. Economic and Social Council.

An ICIJ analysis of 106 NGOs from China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan found that 59 are not independent but are “closely connected” to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The ICIJ referred to these Beijing-backed NGOs as “GONGOs” or “government-organized nongovernmental organizations.”

Ten of these GONGOs receive more than 50 percent of their funding from Beijing, the ICIJ noted.

In at least 46 of these groups, directors, secretaries, vice presidents, or other high-ranking staff also hold positions in the Chinese regime’s departments or within the CCP.

Additionally, 53 of these NGOs pledge loyalty to the CCP on their websites or in other official documents. Among them, 12 agree to defer their decision-making to the Party, such as leadership appointments.

“In 2024, 33 Chinese NGOs showed up about 300 times on the lists of speakers at Human Rights Council sessions. There were only three of them in 2018. None criticized China,” the report reads.

Rana Siu Inboden, senior fellow at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas at Austin, was quoted in the report as saying that Beijing “is clearly using NGOs as a tool.”

“They are encouraging them, helping them, guiding them, coaching them through how to get this [consultative] status,” Inboden said. “And then once they’re [at the U.N.], you can see how their statements, whether it’s in the Human Rights Council or elsewhere, serve the government.”

China’s Tactics

Delegates from the Beijing-backed groups seek to “disrupt and drown out” criticism of China, heap praise on the CCP, and monitor and intimidate those who come to Geneva to testify against China.

“It’s corrosive. It’s dishonest. It’s subversive,” Michèle Taylor, who served as the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Human Rights Council from February 2022 to January this year, was quoted as saying in the ICIJ’s findings.

Beijing-backed groups “are masquerading as NGOs” as part of a broader effort by the CCP “to obfuscate their own human rights violations and reshape the narrative around China’s actions and culpabilities,” Taylor said.

The ICIJ and its media partners spoke to 15 activists and lawyers dedicated to China’s human rights who “described being surveilled or harassed by people suspected to be proxies for the Chinese government,” according to the report. These incidents happened both inside the United Nations and in Geneva at large.

Some activists said that their relatives, whom they believed were pressured by Chinese authorities, had urged them to cease their public activism or cautioned them about the risks of their actions, according to the ICIJ.

The report cites an incident in March 2024, when some rights activists refused to set foot inside the U.N. buildings, out of fear that Beijing’s presence could result in retribution against their families in China.

“Instead, they gathered for a secret meeting on the top floor of a nondescript office building nearby. They were there to discuss human rights abuses in China and Hong Kong with the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, Volker Türk,” the ICIJ said.

In January last year, China was among several countries that underwent a peer review process called the “Universal Periodic Review” before the U.N. Human Rights Council.

Rushan Abbas, cofounder of the U.S.-based Campaign for Uyghurs, told ICIJ that after she and other NGO delegates entered the U.N. building where China’s review was being held, “those Chinese GONGOs were taking pictures of us.”

“I did not report [this] to the U.N. authorities because I lost faith in them, as China was acting … like the U.N. was its playground,” Abbas was quoted as saying in the report.

The ICIJ said that independent organizations now have a greater responsibility to speak out about atrocities due to the rise of autocracy around the world.

“If China’s power continues to go unchecked by U.N. authorities, it threatens the credibility of the institution in its efforts to monitor and document violations and abuses not just in China, but all over the world,” the group said.

Tesla Chairwoman Robyn Denholm denied a Wall Street Journal report claiming the board had begun searching for Elon Musk’s successor, calling the story “absolutely false.” Musk echoed the rebuke, slamming the story as an “EXTREMELY BAD BREACH OF ETHICS” by the legacy media outlet. 

“Earlier today, there was a media report erroneously claiming that the Tesla Board had contacted recruitment firms to initiate a CEO search at the company,” Denholm wrote in a statement published on X via Tesla. 

She emphasized, “This is absolutely false (and this was communicated to the media before the report was published),” adding, “The CEO of Tesla is Elon Musk and the Board is highly confident in his ability to continue executing on the exciting growth plan ahead.”

Musk chimed in, calling the WSJ story by Emily Glazer, Becky Peterson, and Dana Mattioli “an EXTREMELY BAD BREACH OF ETHICS that the WSJ would publish a DELIBERATELY FALSE ARTICLE and fail to include an unequivocal denial beforehand by the Tesla board of directors.”

It is an EXTREMELY BAD BREACH OF ETHICS that the @WSJ would publish a DELIBERATELY FALSE ARTICLE and fail to include an unequivocal denial beforehand by the Tesla board of directors! https://t.co/9xdypLGg3c

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 1, 2025

WSJ’s Glazer and others cited anonymous sources to indicate that slumping vehicle sales and DOGE-related backlash had damaged the brand, prompting the board to search for a new CEO.

Here’s an excerpt: 

Board members reached out to several executive search firms to work on a formal process for finding Tesla’s next chief executive, according to people familiar with the discussions. 

… 

The board narrowed its focus to a major search firm, according to the people familiar with the discussions. The current status of the succession planning couldn’t be determined. It is also unclear if Musk, himself a Tesla board member, was aware of the effort, or if his pledge to spend more time at Tesla has affected succession planning. Musk didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Why WSJ’s Glazer and her co-authors chose to publish the story—despite receiving a denial from Tesla’s board before publication—underscores how legacy media spreads misinformation and disinformation.

This is the landscape Musk—and top officials in the Trump administration—are navigating: a hostile leftist corporate media environment that pushes endless streams of misinformation and disinformation.

In case you wonder what we — and President Trump — are up against.

100% NEGATIVE coverage from so-call “mainstream” press in the first 100 days. PERFECT SCORE.

(Come on @RobertKennedyJr & @elonmusk , you guys can do better!) pic.twitter.com/uYi2ebI0RG

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) April 30, 2025

Folks on X are saying…

Same old story, legacy media writing BS stories about Tesla, then the amateur armchair speculators come in to spread fud, wild.

— Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann) May 1, 2025

YOU CANNOT HATE THE MEDIA ENOUGH!!!!!!

— Matt Van Swol (@matt_vanswol) May 1, 2025

Many car companies, but protests are only against Tesla.

Many billionaires, but protests are only against Elon Musk.

Many departments, but protests are only against DOGE.

Many social networks, but the media is only against 𝕏

Why is that?

— Crazy Vibes (@CrazyVibes_1) May 1, 2025

There is no more journalistic integrity. It’s high time Tesla sues WSJ and all the fake media fwiw. They’re free to say ‘sources familiar with the matter’ to hedge their lies but these things hit Bloomberg terminals and leading to deliberate market manipulation by algos

— Baymax (@blorrior) May 1, 2025

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