Zerohedge

Russia on Monday made clear that it is sticking by initial demands raised by Moscow at the start of the war in February 2022, after President Putin last week issues statements which appeared open to compromise for the sake of peace talks.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has declared that Russia will never give up its hold over Crimea, as well as the annexed regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. He named as a condition for peace negotiations that Russia’s control and sovereignty over these territories is vital and essentially non-negotiable.

“The international recognition of Crimea, Sevastopol, the DPR, the LPR, the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions as part of Russia is another imperative,” he said. “All the commitments Kiev assumes must be legally binding, contain enforcement mechanisms and be permanent,” Lavrov added.

“Russia proceeds from the premise that Kiev’s non-accession to NATO, as well as reaffirming its neutral and non-aligned status as per the 1990 Declaration on Ukraine’s State Sovereignty – these factors form one of the two pillars for a final settlement to the Ukraine crisis that would meet Russia’s security interests,” he continue.

The top Russian diplomat also demanded that Ukraine enact legislation that restores and protects Russian language, culture, and churches and monasteries in Ukraine. Some one-third of the country has long spoken Russian as their first language, and many more know it as a second language.

Zelensky has been waging a state persecution campaign against the largest Orthodox Church in Ukraine, because it has not broken spiritual communion with the Moscow Patriarchate, at times outright seizing monasteries and churches, and arresting bishops and priests. Russian media broadcasts and media have also long been banned.

Lavrov detailed of Moscow’s demands, “The second pillar consists of overcoming the legacy of the neo-Nazi regime which took power in Kiev after the February 2014 putsch, including the initiative by its perpetrators to eradicate and cancel, in both physical and legislative terms, everything Russian, be it the Russian language, media, culture, traditions, or the canonical Orthodox faith,” as conveyed in TASS.

“Demilitarizing and de-Nazifying Ukraine is also on the agenda, along with lifting sanctions, withdrawing lawsuits and cancelling arrest warrants, as well as returning Russian assets subjected to the so-called freeze in the West,” he emphasized.

Of course, there’s also the ban on Ukraine ever becoming a member of NATO, which is a key compromise already being offered by the Trump administration.

Again, all of this is essentially identical to the demands articulated by Putin at the very beginning of the full-scale war. President Trump, coming off the brief Rome meeting with Zelensky, thinks he’s ready to give up Crimea:

US President Donald Trump has said he thinks Volodymyr Zelensky is ready to give up Crimea, despite his Ukrainian counterpart’s previous assertions on the Black Sea peninsula that was annexed by Russia in 2014.

Speaking to reporters at an airport in New Jersey on Sunday a day after meeting with Zelensky at the Vatican, Trump said “Oh, I think so,” in response to a question on whether he thought Zelensky was ready to “give up” the territory.

But is the Ukrainian leader really ready to do this and face attacks – possibly even assassination attempts – from within his own far-right paramilitaries and even army commanders? 

A Ukrainian Army brigade commander openly threatens Zelensky on a Ukrainain TV show.

He warns him not to negotiate with Russia, not to concede territory, or he will “Regret it”

Open threats to the commander in chief from his own troops, Ukraine is a lawless basket case. pic.twitter.com/McN1GjlkIM

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) April 28, 2025

While the common Ukrainian populace is likely more willing to find compromise for the sake of peace, there are still Azov militants and their associates running the show in many places – and their position remains that no compromise whatsoever should be made and the fight must continue, even as Ukrainian forces are being beaten back.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned in a media interview that if Washington imposes more sanctions on Russia, this basically assures more war for years to come. “The minute you start doing that kind of stuff, you’re walking away from it, you’ve now doomed yourself to another two years of war and we don’t want to see it happen,” he said.

He added: “There is no other country, there is no other institution or organization on the Earth that can bring these two sides together, no one else is talking to both sides but us and no one else in the world can make something like this happen but the president.”

* * *

More headlines via Newsquawk… Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Vatican for 15 minutes which Zelensky’s staff said was constructive, covered a lot of ground and they agreed to meet again, while the White House said the meeting was very productive.
• US President Trump said the meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky went well and we’ll see what happens in the next days, while Trump is very disappointed with Russia and wants Russian President Putin to stop shooting and reach a deal. Furthermore, Trump said the confines of a deal are there and that Zelensky is calmer now and wants to make a deal, while it was separately reported that President Trump said he thinks Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready to give up Crimea, according to Al Arabiya.
• US President Trump said there was no reason for Russian President Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns over the last few days which makes him think that Putin doesn’t want to stop the war and is just ‘tapping’ him along, while Trump added too many people are dying and this has to be dealt with differently through banking or secondary sanctions.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said Russia and Ukraine are generally closer to a peace deal than in the last three years and a peace deal needs to happen soon, while he added that the US has options to hold responsible those that don’t want a Ukraine peace deal, according to NBC.
• Russian President Putin confirmed Russia’s readiness to negotiate with Ukraine without preconditions during a meeting with US envoy Witkoff, according to IFAX.
• Russian President Putin said Kyiv’s adventure in the Kursk region completely failed and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov said Ukrainian saboteurs in Russia’s Belgorod region have been liquidated. Furthermore, Russia’s military commander told Russian President Putin that scattered remnants of Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region will be destroyed soon, according to RIA.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia will continue to target sites used by Ukraine’s military, foreign fighters and military instructors sent by Europe, while he added that Russia would be willing to store Iran’s enriched nuclear material if both the US and Iran believe that was useful.
• Ukrainian military said Moscow’s assertion it has ended Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region is not true and operations inside Kursk continue, while its forces are still on active operations in the Belgorod region.
• French President Macron said he had a very positive exchange with Ukrainian President Zelensky and that Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire, while the coalition of the willing will continue working on a ceasefire and lasting peace in Ukraine.
• German Defence Minister Pistorius said US demands for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia are going too far.
• North Korea confirmed troop deployment to Russia and said it will faithfully implement its agreement with Russia, according to Yonhap. Furthermore, South Korea said North Korea’s confirmation of Russia troop deployment is an admission of a criminal act and the US State Department noted it is concerned by North Korea’s direct involvement in Russia’s war in Ukraine, while it added that North Korea’s military deployment to Russia and any support provided by Russia to it in return must end.

Authored by Ciaran Lyons via CoinTelegraph.com,

SEC Commissioner and head of the crypto task force, Hester Peirce, says US financial firms are navigating crypto in a way that’s similar to playing the children’s game “the floor is lava,” but in the dark.

“It is time that we find a way to end this game. We need to turn on the lights and build some walkways over the lava pit,” Peirce said at the SEC “Know Your Custodian” roundtable event on April 25.

The lava is crypto, says Peirce

Peirce explained that SEC registrants are forced to approach crypto-related activities like “the floor is lava,” where the aim is to jump from one piece of furniture to the next without touching the ground, except here, touching crypto directly is the lava.

“A D.C. version of this game is our regulatory approach to crypto assets, and crypto asset custody in particular,” she said.

Peirce said that, much like in the game, firms wanting to engage with crypto must avoid directly holding it due to unclear regulatory rules. 

“To engage in crypto-related activities, SEC-registrants have had to hop from one poorly illuminated regulatory space to the next, all while ensuring that they never touch any crypto asset,” Peirce said.

Source: US Securities and Exchange Commission

Peirce said that investment advisers are often unsure which crypto assets qualify as securities, what entities count as qualified custodians, and whether “exercising staking or voting rights” could trigger custody violations.

“The twist in the regulatory version is that it is largely played in the dark: burning legal lava and no lamps to illuminate the way.”

Peirce also said that a broker or ATS that cannot custody or manage crypto assets will struggle to facilitate trading, making it unlikely for a “robust market” to develop.

Echoing a similar sentiment, SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda said at the event that as more SEC registrants work with crypto assets, it’s essential that they have access to custodial options that meet legal and regulatory requirements.

Uyeda said the agency should consider letting advisers use “state-chartered limited-purpose trust companies” with the authority to hold crypto assets as qualified custodians.

Meanwhile, the recently sworn-in chair of the SEC, Paul Atkins, said that he expected “huge benefits” from blockchain technology through efficiency, risk mitigation, transparency, and cutting costs.

He reiterated that among his goals at the SEC would be to facilitate “clear regulatory rules of the road” for digital assets, hinting that the agency under former chair Gary Gensler had contributed to market and regulatory uncertainty.

“I look forward to engaging with market participants and working with colleagues in President Trump’s administration and Congress to establish a rational fit-for-purpose framework for crypto assets,” said Atkins.

After three consecutive days of reports of mutual gunfire at army outposts along the Line of Control (LOC) disputed border area, Pakistan’s defense minister declared Monday that a military incursion by India is imminent.

“We have reinforced our forces because it is something which is imminent now. So in that situation some strategic decisions have to be taken, so those decisions have been taken,” Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif told Reuters from Islamabad. This confirms Pakistani Army build-up along the border.

A severe war of words has been on since last Tuesday’s deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir, which saw 26 Indian tourists get executed after the gunmen sought to identify Hindus among the group. The Indian government promptly accused Pakistan of harboring the Islamist terrorists which committed the atrocity, which Islamabad angrily rejected.

The nuclear-armed neighbors have already fought two historic wars over the Kashmir region, and fears are rising that another one may soon be on the horizon – also after both sides have sent military reinforcements to the respective regions they administer. Amid a massive manhunt, India identified two detained suspected militants as Pakistani.

“Asif said India’s rhetoric was ramping up and that Pakistan’s military had briefed the government on the possibility of an Indian attack,” Reuters continues of the defense chief’s statements. “He did not go into further details on his reasons for thinking an incursion was imminent.”

And very alarmingly, the question of use of nuclear weapons was broached in the interview:

Asif said Pakistan was on high alert and that it would only use its arsenal of nuclear weapons if “there is a direct threat to our existence”.

The Indian army over the weekend announced there has been “unprovoked” firing “initiated by Pakistan” along the Line of Control (LOC) which divides Kashmir into two. Pakistan in the aftermath of the accusation neither confirmed nor denied.

The New York Times described Saturday that “Pakistani solders fired at an Indian position first and India responded in kind, according to local news reports, which said that “the exchange was brief and that there were no casualties.” Precise locations of these live fire incidents have not been disclosed.

Soon after the crisis land borders were been shut, visas and military exchange programs mutually canceled, and a landmark water treaty was suspended. Pakistan blasted India’s cancelation of the Indus Water Treaty as an “act of war” and warned it would respond accordingly if water flows are violated among the two rivals’ shared rivers.

Unverified videos like the below have been widely circulating online:

Non stop Pakistan military movement to India’s border. pic.twitter.com/tUDsmhhHnI

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 28, 2025

But if gunfire continues to be exchanged between the two militaries, also amid reports that Pakistani visa holders are being promptly booted from the country amid the diplomatic crisis – clashes could accelerate toward open war. 

India’s Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah has meanwhile said there must be a “decisive fight against terrorism and its origin.” Indian officials have continued to heap accusations that ultimately Islamabad either supports these groups or at least turns a blind eye.

Air Force and army activity along the border ramping up?

Pakistan has activated its Swat & Skardu airbases amid tensions with India. The Airforce were seen conducting sorties today. pic.twitter.com/U5GK17xLAd

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 27, 2025

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Here we are again.” 

Those words of Senior U.S. District Judge William H. Orrick may be the only uncontested line in his opinion this week, enjoining the Trump Administration from withholding federal funds to “sanctuary jurisdictions.”

In President Trump’s first term, efforts to implement sweeping changes on immigration and other issues were met by a slew of injunctions. 

In 2017, one of those orders was from Judge Orrick, an Obama appointee in San Francisco.

Trump has already faced a record number of national injunctions by district courts. 

His administration has objected to forum- and judge-shopping by political opponents by bringing the majority of such challenges in overwhelmingly Democratic states like California.

Such injunctions did not exist at the founding, and only relatively recently became the rage among district court judges. Under President George W. Bush, there were only six such injunctions, which increased to 12 under Obama.

Both Democratic and Republican presidents have complained about district judges tying down presidents like so many judicial Lilliputians. However, when Trump came to office, the taste for national injunctions became a full-fledged addiction. Trump faced 64 such orders in his first term.

When Biden and the Democrats returned to office, it fell back to 14. That was not due to more modest measures. Biden did precisely what Trump did in seeking to negate virtually all of his predecessors’ orders and then seek sweeping new legal reforms. He was repeatedly found to have violated the Constitution, but there was no torrent of preliminary injunctions at the start of his term.

Now, however, with less than 100 days in office, Trump 2.0 has already surpassed that number for the entirety of Biden’s term.

The Supreme Court bears some of the blame for this. Although a majority of justices, including liberal Justice Elena Kagan, have complained about district courts’ issuance of national injunctions, the high court has done little to rein in district court judges. On May 15, the justices are poised to consider the issue in a case involving birthright citizenship. Many hope that the justices will bring what they have consistently failed to supply to lower courts: clarity and finality.

Some judges have already seen their stays lifted by appellate courts. 

However, in just one day this week, three more major injunctions were issued on sanctuary cities, voter registration, and deportations.

Some of these orders appear premature and overbroad. 

Take Judge Orrick’s order. Again, Trump is targeting cities offering sanctuary to unlawful immigrants as imposing high costs on the country, including increasing burdens for federal programs and grants to these cities.

Orrick previously stopped that effort in the first Trump term, and he was affirmed by the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. However, the orders are not identical, and so far no action has been taken against these cities.

Under one of the orders, titled “Protecting the American People against Invasion,” Trump has ordered the attorney general and the secretary of Homeland Security to “evaluate and undertake any lawful actions to ensure that so-called “sanctuary” jurisdictions, which seek to interfere with the lawful exercise of Federal law enforcement operations, do not receive access to Federal funds.”

Orrick noted that the term “sanctuary jurisdiction” was not defined and dismissed the express reservation that such actions can only proceed to the extent that they are allowed under law.

The irony is that the opinion itself is overly broad and imprecise. There are indeed cases limiting the ability of the federal government to “commandeer” states and cities into carrying out federal functions. However, there are also cases upholding the right to withhold federal funds that contravene federal laws and policies.

The operative language in the order is the focus on sanctuary policies that “interfere” or prevent federal enforcement. There must be some accommodation for the federal government in refusing to pay for the rope that it will hang by.

Justice Robert Jackson famously wrote in Terminiello v. City of Chicago that the Constitution cannot be construed as a “suicide pact.” I have never been fond of that quote, which has often been used to justify the curtailment of individual rights. But these cases could bring a new meaning to the quote in immigration cases.

If one accepts the Trump administration’s data, then continued funding of these jurisdictions might be more akin to being forced to pay for your own hit man and then calling it suicide.

There is a reason courts generally wait for these conflicts to become “ripe.” The administration could easily engage in impermissible “commandeering,” but it could also “evaluate and undertake” more focused and defensible withholdings of federal funds. Judge Orrick decided not to wait to find out.

These are difficult questions, but the Supreme Court can reduce these cases by actually ruling with clarity. The court has often left these issues mired in ambiguity, kicking cases like cans down the road for any final resolution.

Consider the order out of the District of Columbia blocking an effort to change federal voting forms to require proof of citizenship. Trump campaigned on the issue, and, according to a Gallup poll, 84 percent of U.S. adults are in favor of requiring voters to show such identification.

Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly barred the federal government from changing the standardized national voter registration form and to have federal voter registration agencies “assess” the citizenship of individuals who receive public assistance before providing them a voter registration form.

Kollar-Kotelly raises good-faith limits on presidents’ ability to regulate elections, a power mainly left to the states. However, this is a policy that does not necessarily impose a new condition on states.

After all, non-citizens are barred from voting in federal elections in all states. Again, there must be some ability of the administration to act to address a national priority in the funding of election reforms and practices. 

The question is whether the court will recognize such a federal interest.

The problem with some of these orders is not that they are without foundation, but that courts appear on a hair-trigger to enjoin the Trump administration on any subject whatsoever. There is a need to deescalate in both branches as we expedite these appeals. We are indeed “here again,” but this is not a good place for anyone.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the J.B. and Maurice C. Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at the George Washington University Law School. He is the author of best-selling book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” 

This week will be the first for a while where data and earnings will compete with tariff headlines as it’s a bumper week on this front. According to DB”s Jim Reid, in terms of data the main highlights in the US are payrolls (Friday), core PCE inflation and US GDP (Wednesday), ISM manufacturing (Thursday) and the latest JOLTS and consumer confidence tomorrow.

In Europe flash CPI numbers get released from Spain tomorrow, Germany, France and Italy on Wednesday, with the Eurozone aggregate on Friday (our economists’ preview is here). On Wednesday, Q1 GDP reports are due for Germany, France, Italy and the Eurozone. In Asia, the focus will be on the BoJ meeting (Thursday – our preview here) and April PMIs in China (Wednesday).

Besides the macro, we get an avalanche of micro as we face the busiest week of Q1 earnings season with corporate reporting centering around results from Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. This will contribute to a whopping 40% of S&P 500 market cap reporting this week. 

It’s fair to say that Mag-7 earnings will go a long way to dictating the tone of the week, and perhaps quarter, now that the worst of tariffs appears to be behind us. As Jim Reid mentioned last week, remember that before Liberation Day the main theme bubbling in the background was the Mag-7 underperforming due to DeepSeek, worries about extreme levels of Capex needed to power AI forward, valuations and a disappointing Q4 reporting season around the end of January. Three months on we’ll see what earnings look like.

Elsewhere we see the federal election in Canada today. Remember the ruling Liberal Party were frequently 25% behind in the polls in early-mid January even after Trudeau had announced his resignation as leader. However after the “51st state” rhetoric and aggressive tariffs, the rally round the flag movement has propelled the Liberals into a 3-4pp lead in current poll of polls which if replicated today would likely give them a small majority. So a remarkable turnaround. 

Elsewhere in politics, Wednesday will mark President Trump’s first 100 days in office. So expect lots of reflections on this landmark. The UK holds local elections on Thursday with the main point of interest being how well the populist Reform Party does given they have recently edged ahead of the ruling Labour Party in national polls.

So its fair to say it will be a busy week. 

Let’s go into more detail on some of the main data points. Firstly, in terms of payrolls, DB economists forecast that headline (+125k forecast vs. +228k previously) and private (+125k vs. +209k) payrolls will mean revert after a strong March, particularly within the leisure/hospitality and retail sectors. The bank’s econ team point out that March and April can get whipped around due to the timing of Easter and school spring breaks. Unemployment should remain steady at 4.2% though.

Wednesday’s advance Q1 GDP will be interesting as the consensus suggests only +0.4% annualized growth in the quarter (+1.1% expected at DB vs. +2.4% in Q4) so that will raise some concerns if it materializes. At the same time DB sees March personal income (+0.5% DB vs. +0.4% last month) and spending (+0.6% DB vs. +0.4%) data. This will also contain the latest reading on the core PCE deflator (+0.1% vs. +0.4%) which is expected to be on the softer side this month. This will be welcome but remember this is all largely pre-tariffs.

The day by day week ahead is at the end as usual, including the highlights from a busy week for earnings on both sides of the Atlantic. One final thing to note is the US Treasury’s updated borrowing estimates (today) and the subsequent refunding announcement (Wednesday). This normally gets released without too much fuss but remember that in Summer 2023 (end July/early August) this quarterly announcement helped cause brief but great stress in markets due to higher than expected borrowing and more long-dated issuance. Since then the Treasury has managed the process with a view to minimising market fears but in an era of large borrowings these events are always worth keeping an eye out for.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday April 28

• Data: US April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, France Q1 total jobseekers
• Central banks: ECB’s Rehn and Guindos speak
• Earnings: Hitachi, Welltower, Waste Management, Cadence Design Systems, Deutsche Boerse, NXP Semiconductors, Domino’s Pizza
• Auctions: US Treasury updated borrowing estimates
• Other: Canadian federal election

Tuesday April 29

• Data: US April Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed services activity, March JOLTS report, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, February FHFA house price index, Germany May GfK consumer confidence, Italy April consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, March hourly wages, February industrial sales, Eurozone March M3, April economic, industrial, services confidence, Sweden Q1 GDP indicator
• Central banks: ECB’s March consumer expectations survey, Holzmann and Cipollone speak, BoE’s Ramsden speaks
• Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, China Construction Bank, AstraZeneca, HSBC, Booking, S&P Global, Pfizer, Honeywell, Spotify, American Tower, Altria, Starbucks, Mondelez, Sherwin-Williams, UPS, BBVA, BP, Atlas Copco, Ecolab, Regeneron, PayPal, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Wal-Mart de Mexico, Universal Music Group, Hilton, Fair Isaac, adidas, GM, Corning, Kraft Heinz, CoStar, Ares

Wednesday April 30

• Data: US Q1 GDP, employment cost index, April ADP report, MNI Chicago PMI, March core PCE, personal income and spending, pending home sales, China April official PMIs, Caixin manufacturing PMI, UK April Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan March retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany April CPI, retail sales, import price index, unemployment claims rate, Q1 GDP, France April CPI, March PPI, consumer spending, Q1 GDP, Italy April CPI, March PPI, Q1 GDP, Eurozone Q1 GDP, Canada February GDP, Australia Q1 CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Muller speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli speaks
• Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Samsung, Qualcomm, Caterpillar, TotalEnergies, Airbus, Iberdrola, Santander, UBS, KLA, Equinix, GSK, Tokyo Electron, MediaTek, Equinor, Mercedes-Benz Group, Credit Agricole, Barclays, Volkswagen, CaixaBank, Deutsche Post, Haleon, Robinhood, Societe Generale, Humana, eBay, GE HealthCare, ArcelorMittal, Evolution AB, Repsol, Norwegian Cruise Line, Albemarle, Wingstop, Etsy
• Auctions: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

Thursday May 1

• Data: US April ISM index, total vehicle sales, March construction spending, initial jobless claims, UK March net consumer credit, M4, Japan April consumer confidence index, Canada April manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: BoJ’s decision
• Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Linde, Amgen, Stryker, KKR, MicroStrategy, CVS Health, Airbnb, Parker-Hannifin, Lloyds Banking Group, Howmet Aerospace, Dominion Energy, Roblox, Targa Resources, Block, Hershey, Live Nation Entertainment, Kellanova, Blue Owl Capital, Estee Lauder, Reddit, Cameco, Duolingo, Twilio, Juniper Networks, Maplebear, Moderna, United States Steel, Roku, Wayfair, Harley-Davidson
• Other: UK local elections

Friday May 2

• Data: US April jobs report, March factory orders, Japan April monetary base, March jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, France March budget balance, Italy April manufacturing PMI, budget balance, new car registrations, March unemployment rate, Eurozone April CPI, March unemployment rate
• Central banks: ECB’s economic bulletin
• Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, Eaton, Cigna Group, Mitsubishi, Apollo, ING, NatWest, BASF, Standard Chartered, DuPont de Nemours

* * *

FInally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the Q1 advance GDP report and core PCE inflation on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the May FOMC meeting.

Monday, April 28

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Tuesday, April 29

• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, March (GS -$146.0bn, consensus -$143.0bn, last -$147.8bn);  We forecast that the advance goods trade deficit narrowed by $1.8bn to $146.0bn in the March advance report, reflecting a $10bn decline in gold imports that was offset by a $10bn increase in imports from major Asian trading partners.
• 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, March preliminary (consensus +0.7%, last +0.3%)
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, February (consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%)
• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, March (GS 7,400k, consensus 7,500k, last 7,568k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings edged down to 7.4mn in March based on the signal from online job postings.
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, April (GS 90.0, consensus 87.0, last 92.9)

Wednesday, April 30

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, April (GS +110k, consensus +124k, last +155k)
• 08:30 AM GDP, Q1 advance (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.4%, last +2.4%); Personal consumption, Q1 advance (GS +0.9%, consensus +1.2%, last +4.0%); Core PCE inflation, Q1 advance (GS +3.32%, consensus +3.0%, last +2.6%): We estimate that GDP fell 0.2% annualized in the advance reading for Q1, following +2.4% annualized growth in Q4. Our forecast reflects a slowdown in consumption growth (+0.9%, quarter-over-quarter annualized), a sharp increase in imports growth (+24.0% vs. -1.9% in Q4), and a decline in residential investment (-8.2% vs. +5.5% in Q4), but a pickup in business fixed investment growth (+7.3% vs. -3.0% in Q4), stronger exports growth (+6.8% vs. -0.2% in Q4), and a rebound in inventory accumulation. We estimate that the core PCE price index increased 3.32% annualized (or 2.77% year-over-year) in Q1.
• 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q1 (GS +0.95%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.9%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.95% in Q1 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted), which would lower the year-on-year rate by two tenths to 3.6% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted). Our forecast reflects a sequential acceleration in wage and salary growth—reflecting the signal from the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker—and slightly firmer ECI benefit growth—reflecting resets to start the year.
• 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, April (consensus 46.0, last 47.6)
• 10:00 AM Personal income, March (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.8%); Personal spending, March (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index, March (GS +0.08%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index (YoY), March (GS +2.67%, consensus +2.6%, last +2.8%); PCE price index, March (GS flat, consensus flat, last +0.3%); PCE price index (YoY), March (GS +2.32%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.5%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, in March. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose by 0.08% in March, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.67%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index remained unchanged from the prior month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.32%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.15% increase in our trimmed core PCE measure (vs. 0.26% in February).
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, March (GS +7.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +2.0%)

Thursday, May 1

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 26 (GS 225k, consensus 225k, last 222k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 19 (consensus 1,860k, last 1,841k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, April final (consensus 50.7, last 50.7)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, April (GS 47.5, consensus 48.0, last 49.0): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index declined by 1.5pt to 47.5 in April, reflecting softer manufacturing surveys so far for April (GS manufacturing survey tracker: -3.1pt to 47.4) and a slight headwind from residual seasonality.
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.7%)
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, April (GS 17.2mn, consensus 17.1mn, last 17.8mn)

Friday, May 2

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, April (GS +140k, consensus +130k, last +228k); Private payroll employment, April (GS +140k, consensus +120k, last +209k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), April (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, April (GS 4.2%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.2%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 140k in April. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a slower but still moderate pace of job creation. On the negative side, we expect unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 15k decline in federal government payrolls that offsets a 15k increase in state and local government payrolls. We see mixed implications from potential seasonal distortions: while April nonfarm payroll growth has typically picked up when the Easter holiday falls in late April, uncertainty is likely to disproportionately weigh on employment growth in months where gross hiring is particularly elevated, such as April. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2% on a rounded basis. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.25% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting negative calendar effects.
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, March (GS +5.0%, consensus +4.5%, last +0.6%)

Source: DB, Goldman

 

Huawei Technologies is preparing to test its most powerful artificial intelligence chip, the Ascend 910D, which is designed to replace advanced Nvidia chips in the Chinese market. This comes after six years of U.S. efforts to blacklist Huawei and restrict its access to advanced semiconductors amid a deepening AI race and trade war between the two economic superpowers. 

The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Ascend 910D’s technical feasibility will be conducted over the next several weeks. People familiar with the new chip said that these processors will be much more powerful than Nvidia’s H100 chips, which are used for training AI models.

However… 

The company’s new chip uses packaging technologies to integrate more silicon dies together to boost performance, said people familiar with the matter. The 910D is power hungry and is less power-efficient than Nvidia’s H100, the people said.-WSJ 

Huawei has shown resilience in the face of Washington’s chip restrictions over the last six years. In 2023, it launched the Mate 60 smartphone powered by a advanced domestically produced chip. By late 2024, Huawei launched the Mate 70, which stunned Washington. 

Here’s more color on Ascend 910D’s development via WSJ’s source:

The development is still at an early stage, and a series of tests will be needed to assess the chip’s performance and get it ready for customers, the people said.

Huawei hopes that the latest iteration of its Ascend AI processors will be more powerful than Nvidia’s H100, a popular chip used for AI training that was released in 2022, said one of the people. Previous versions are called 910B and 910C.

After the Trump administration banned H20 chips in China, Nvidia’s rivals, such as Huawei and Cambricon Technologies, have gained momentum. Huawei plans to deliver over 800,000 Ascend 910B and 910C chips this year to state-owned telecommunications carriers and AI companies, such as TikTok parent ByteDance, according to the sources.

Huawei’s development of advanced chips to rival the Nvidia H20 chip appears to be a win, but the company has encountered production woes by being cut off from the world’s largest chip foundry, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC).

Instead of TSMC, Huawei turned to Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), a domestic chipmaker that also faces restrictions on acquiring the most advanced chip-making equipment.

Research firm SemiAnalysis commented on the new chip: “Having five times as many Ascends more than offsets each GPU being only one-third the performance of an Nvidia Blackwell … the deficiencies in power are relevant but not a limiting factor in China.”

Meanwhile… 

🚨🇨🇳🇺🇸The Release of Deepseek-R2 is imminent. The US tried to kill off Huawei by launching a huge sanctions package against them in 2019 under Trump’s first term, but it failed. Huawei are about to start trials of their Ascend 910D, and mass production of 910C.

DeepSeek R2: Unit… https://t.co/nog4EzKTV8

— Barrett (@BarrettYouTube) April 28, 2025

. . .  

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,

A Houthi-controlled ministry said on Monday that a U.S. airstrike killed at least 68 Africans at a migrant detention center in northern Yemen.

The Yemen News Agency (Saba) said it received a statement from the civil defense department of the Ministry of Interior, reporting that the strike in Saada governorate, a Houthi stronghold, killed at least 68 and wounded 47 African migrants.

The Epoch Times reached out to the U.S. Department of Defense for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Migrants from Eritrea, Ethiopia, and other African countries often cross the Bab el-Mandab Strait to Yemen en route to oil-rich Saudi Arabia, seeking work.

Graphic footage broadcast by the Houthi-controlled Al-Masirah satellite news channel showed what appeared to be dead bodies.

The Epoch Times was unable to verify the claims or the footage.

On March 15, President Donald Trump ordered airstrikes on Houthi-held areas in Yemen, vowing to use “overwhelming lethal force” until the Iran-backed terrorists end their attacks on a critical sea lane.

U.S. aircraft have been consistently hitting targets across Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen over the last six weeks in what is known as Operation Rough Rider.

“Since March 15, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) forces have conducted an intense and sustained campaign targeting the Houthi terrorist organization in Yemen to restore freedom of navigation and American deterrence,” U.S. Central Command said in an April 27 statement.

“These operations have been executed using detailed and comprehensive intelligence ensuring lethal effects against the Houthis while minimizing risk to civilians.”

‘Minimizing Risk to Civilians’

“To preserve operational security, we have intentionally limited disclosing details of our ongoing or future operations. We are very deliberate in our operational approach, but will not reveal specifics about what we’ve done or what we will do.”

The statement said Central Command has struck over 800 targets since the start of Operation Rough Rider. These strikes have killed hundreds of Houthi fighters and numerous Houthi leaders, including senior Houthi missile and UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] officials, according to Central Command.

Iran has supplied drones and drone technology to its allies in the so-called Axis of Resistance, which includes the Houthis in Yemen and the terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Both have used drones against Israel, although the Houthis have tended to target shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandab Strait.

In Oct. 2024, Central Command sent B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to target underground bunkers in Yemen which it said were used by the Houthis to store missiles and drones.

The Houthi terrorist group draws members from northern Yemen’s Shiite Muslim Zaydi community.

Officially known as Ansar Allah, they have controlled the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, and a swath of territory in north and west Yemen since 2014.

On March 4, Ansar Allah was formally designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. Department of State.

In a statement announcing the designation, the State Department said, “Since 2023, the Houthis have launched hundreds of attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as U.S. service members defending freedom of navigation and our regional partners. Most recently, the Houthis spared Chinese-flagged ships while targeting American and allied vessels.”

On April 18, a U.S. strike on the port of Ras Isa killed at least 74 people and wounded 171 others.

In its latest statement, Central Command said, “U.S. strikes destroyed the ability of Ras Isa Port to accept fuel which will begin to impact Houthi ability to not only conduct operations, but also to generate millions of dollars in revenue for their terror activities.”

Last year, the State Department published a status report on human trafficking in Yemen, part of which country is controlled by the Saudi-backed Republic of Yemen Government (ROYG). The ROYG fought a long war against the Houthis, paused in 2022 after the United Nations brokered a cease-fire.

The report said, “The sustained insurgency by the Houthis continued to be a significant obstacle to the ROYG’s ability to combat all forms of human trafficking, including the recruitment or use of child soldiers.”

Via Remix News,

Vienna’s regional parliament election saw the Austria Freedom Party (FPÖ) achieve a historic success, achieving a second-place result in the traditional left-wing city. The party almost tripled its support to over 20 percent compared to the previous election. The result could further destabilize the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), which shunned the FPÖ to form a national government with left-wing parties.

Despite a drop in support, the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) remained in first place to continue leading the Austrian capital. 

Sámuel Ágoston Mráz, director of the Nézőpont Institute, told Magyar Nemzet that the strengthening of the FPÖ could have a serious impact on the rest of the country, as well as internationally. Coalition negotiations have now begun, and the party leaders have also assessed the results.

🇦🇹 BREAKING: Austria’s right-wing FPÖ party has TRIPLED its support in Vienna.

It is now the 2nd-strong party after city-wide elections, but the left still dominates.

SPÖ: 39.4%
FPÖ: 20.4%
Greens: 14.6%
ÖVP: 9.7%
NEOS: 9.7%
Left Party: 4.1% pic.twitter.com/DV3PoqyrF5

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) April 27, 2025

In particular, the ÖVP saw its support in Vienna crater. The chancellor’s party plummeted to 9.6 percent—a drop of 10.8 percentage points compared to 2020. There is already speculation in Viennese party circles about a possible resignation of the 70-year-old city party chairman, Karl Mahrer. Despite the defeat, the People’s Party is determined to govern alongside the SPÖ.

Michael Ludwig, the socialist mayor of Vienna, made it clear in a statement on Sunday evening that the SPÖ remained the strongest party in the elections and that negotiations will begin with several parties about possible cooperation.

🇦🇹 This is now Vienna on a warm day. The Austrian city is often labeled the “most livable” city in the world.

Yet, the Viennese vote overwhelmingly for more mass immigration, even as the city becomes more packed every year.

45.4% of its residents are now of foreign origin. pic.twitter.com/7M7EsfTMTT

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) April 27, 2025

“We want to form a stable city and provincial government before the summer,” Ludwig said while ruling out the possibility of a coalition with the FPÖ.

A continuation of the red-green coalition seems likely, but cooperation with NEOS is not ruled out.

On behalf of NEOS, Bettina Emmerling indicated that they would be happy to continue the “progress coalition” with the SPÖ, especially building on cooperation on education policy. The party’s secretary general, Douglas Hoyos, also welcomed the result, highlighting that NEOS achieved almost 10 percent, a historic high for the party in Vienna. 

Judith Pühringer, leader of the Greens, said the party’s themes were in line with the SPÖ’s goals. Werner Kogler, the party’s national chairman, also confirmed that the Greens were ready to actively participate in shaping Vienna’s future.

Although the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) suffered heavy losses, party leader Karl Mahrer stated that if the mayor wanted to pursue a policy committed to the political center, economic stability, and social cohesion, the ÖVP was open to negotiations.

The Vienna leader of the Austrian Freedom Party, Dominik Nepp, told broadcaster ORF:

“The huge vote of confidence from the voters has been clearly demonstrated. We have tripled our support. This is a clear sign that people want change. From our perspective, a red-blue coalition would be what many people want. Mayor Ludwig must finally abandon his exclusionary policies. We will consistently monitor the functioning of Vienna!”

Herbert Kickl, national chairman of the FPÖ, also spoke: 

“The strong result of Dominik Nepp and the FPÖ shows that people in Vienna also want change, and change that puts the people back at the center of politics. The people are sovereign, and this sovereign has given a clear signal in Vienna today.”

Read more here…

US equity futures are little changed, reversing earlier losses as much as 0.5%, as global markets are broadly in the green amid a burst of positive sentiment, which even pushed JPM’s recently bearish trading desk to turn tactically bullish this morning (more in a subsequent post). As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1%, but well off session lows. Nvidia shares fell 1% in premarket after the Wall Street Journal reported China’s Huawei Technologies is getting ready to test a new and powerful artificial intelligence processor that the company hopes can replace some products made by Nvidia; other Mag7 names are mixed with Cyclicals/Semis under pressure and Defensives catching a bid. Europe’s Estoxx advanced 0.5% over early London session with gains led by info tech and consumer staples; Asian stocks were also broadly higher with Japan erasing all post-Liberation day losses.  US equities are focused this week on the tech sector, with Microsoft, Apple, Meta and Amazon all reporting earnings. The week also includes the April US jobs report, due Friday. Bond yields are higher as the curve bear steepens and the USD starts the session stronger. This is a data-heavy week but today’s focus is on regional Fed activity but the key’s this week are NFP, JOLTS, ISM-Mfg, and 25Q1 metrics.

In premarket trading, Nvidia shares slip after the WSJ reported that Huawei is getting ready to test an artificial intelligence processor that the Chinese tech giant hopes can replace some Nvidia products; others Mag7 stocks are Alphabet 0.06%, Meta Platforms +1%, Amazon +0.1%, Tesla +0.8%, Nvidia -1.5%, Microsoft -0.2%, Apple 0.6%. Boeing rises 1.5% as Airbus SE agreed to take over some assets and sites from Spirit AeroSystems, clearing the way for Spirit to be acquired by Boeing. Also, Bernstein upgraded Boeing to outperform, noting that the aircraft maker is now “making the progress it needed for the growth trajectory.” Eli Lilly slips 1.6% after HSBC double downgraded the stock to reduce — a sell-equivalent rating — from buy, saying the drugmaker’s risk-reward “is not attractive.” Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• CG Oncology (CGON) soars 40% after presenting data on cretostimogene grenadenorepvec monotherapy data at the American Urological Association annual meeting.
• Jack in the Box (JACK) rises 4% after Stifel upgrades to buy, saying new CEO Lance Tucker “has created a viable plan to strengthen the balance sheet.”
• Peloton Interactive (PTON) gains 6% after Truist Securities upgraded the fitness company to buy, saying the stock is finally nearing a point where the company’s improving fundamentals should support a recovery in shares.
• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) climbs 5% after presenting initial data from a Zoldonrasib study in patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

US futures posted modest moves as investors awaited reports from American companies worth $20 trillion, including four mega tech names AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and META, and watched for progress in US trade talks with Asian partners. Wild gyrations sparked by Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements have eased somewhat, but investors will be scrutinizing this week’s key company reports for the earnings impact of US trade policies. Fresh readings on the state of the American economy may support hopes of earlier-than-expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. 

Four of the Mag 7, Microsoft, Apple, Meta and Amazon,  are due to report earnings this week. Analysts expect the group to deliver an average of 15% profit growth in 2025, a forecast that’s barely budged since the start of March despite the flareup in trade tensions. In terms of market capitalization, it’s the busiest week of the year for earnings, with S&P 500-listed companies worth $20 trillion reporting.

Investors are also watching for any signs of progress in US trade negotiations after Trump suggested another delay to his higher tariffs was unlikely. Asian economies, facing some of the highest US “reciprocal” tariffs, are leading the way over their western counterparts in talks with the administration.

“Ultimately, it seems that we’re moving towards a place where these policies start to make a little more sense,” Themistoklis Fiotakis, global head of FX strategy at Barclays Plc, told Bloomberg TV. “If this starts shaping up in a place where markets can understand it, can quantify it, then I think that things are going to normalize.”

To help manage the next steps, the Trump team has drafted a framework to handle negotiations with about 18 countries, including a template that lays out common areas of concern to guide the discussions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is working on bilateral trade deals with 17 key partners, not including China. Bessent reiterated the administration’s argument that Beijing will be forced to the negotiating table because China can’t sustain Trump’s latest tariff level of 145% on Chinese goods. Its standoff with China will likewise limit the potential benefits the US can reap from deals with Asian trading partners, according to Phoenix Kalen, global head of emerging markets research at Societe Generale SA.

“Already there has been a lot of investor sentiment and positioning for some deals to be done, especially with Japan, especially with South Korea,” Kalen told Bloomberg TV. “But the scope is going to be relatively limited and hampered. The concern especially for Asian trade partners around how China will respond to the terms will limit the extent to which they can agree to certain terms with the Trump administration.”

Meanwhile, Friday’s US non-farm payrolls figures will also turn attention to the health of the American economy. “In general I think this week’s data won’t be too bad for the economy because it really precedes the announcement of tariffs,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., told Bloomberg TV. “The inflation numbers shouldn’t be too bad. But I’ll really be watching the ISM numbers at the end of the week and of course, the jobs data where we could see some softness.”

The S&P 500’s recovery month-to-date from a 14% drop to -1.5% as of Friday’s close is one of the best rebounds since 1950. Still, the bounce has been too narrow to instill much confidence in a sustainable longer-term rally. Traders may stay cautious as gains have been largely headline and short-covering driven. Volatility is abating but remains elevated. It’s also coming up to the 100-day mark for Trump’s presidency.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is set to extend its winning streak to a fifth session as it climbs 0.7%, boosted by M&A news out of Italy as Mediobanca made a €6.3 billion ($7.1 billion) offer for the wealth management arm of Italian insurer Assicurazioni Generali SpA.  Food & beverage, travel & leisure and bank stocks are leading gains while real estate and industrials lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Deliveroo stock soars as much as 18% to 173p after the food-delivery firm said that DoorDash has made a cash takeover proposal at 180p a share, and it would be “minded to recommend such an offer” to shareholders.
• Traton shares rise as much as 5.5% after the German truckmaker posted first-quarter results, with analysts welcoming a strong order intake.
• Interpump shares rise as much as 4.1% in Milan trading after BNP Paribas Exane analysts upgraded the Italian hydraulics and pumps manufacturer, saying it is “an overlooked M&A story with positive risk/reward.”
• ITV shares drop as much as 3.8% after a report that France’s Banijay Group is working on plans for a takeover offer for the entire broadcaster or its studio arm. Analysts note reports of interested bidders are building, but a deal isn’t a certainty.
• Fraport drops as much as 4.5% after Jefferies downgrades the airport services provider to underperform from hold, saying it’s overexposed to slowing transatlantic and business traffic.
• Nagarro shares fall as much as 16%, to a record low, after the German IT services firm postponed the publication of its full-year results.
• BoneSupport falls as much as much as 6.6% after the company announced its CEO Emil Billback is stepping down after more than seven years in the role.
• Valneva shares drop as much as 20% after French regulators decided to suspend the use of its chikungunya vaccine Ixchiq for people aged 65 years and older.

Earlier in the session, Asian shares also rose as focus shifted to a slew of major earnings from the region, while signs that trade tensions may have peaked, at least for now, helped sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, adding to last week’s 2.2% gain. Japanese benchmarks outperformed following a report on Toyota Motor Corp. chairman’s proposal to buy out Toyota Industries. Indian shares resumed their climb amid foreign inflows, while Chinese stocks were range-bound as officials reiterated their plan to strengthen support for employment and the economy. The flood of tariff-related headlines has slowed somewhat, and investors are turning their attention to earnings to gauge how Asian firms are prepared to tackle higher levies. The region is facing its busiest earnings week this season, with China’s biggest banks including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd. set to release results. 

“Broadly, we’re seeing some relief positioning as there is some refocusing on fundamentals, which I would say is tariff fatigue,” said Billy Leung, senior investment strategist at Global X ETFs in Australia. On China’s earnings, markets want to see more commentary from corporates on domestic confidence, he added.

In rates, treasuries were cheaper across the curve, with futures extending a drop into the early US session as investors digest news around US trade talks with Asian partners.  US yields were cheaper by 2bp to 5bp across the curve, with intermediates underperforming slightly, flattening 5s30s spread by 2bp on the day. US 10-year yields traded around 4.27%, down 4 bps from Friday’s close; European bonds also decline with bunds lagging by 1bp and gilts outperforming 1bp. Next Treasury coupon auction is scheduled for May 5.  

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat; New Zealand dollar lags G-10 peers and the pound leads gains, rising 0.3% against the greenback.

In commodities, spot gold falls $42 to around $3,278/oz. Oil prices are steady with WTI just below $63 a barrel. 

In crypto, bitcoin rose 1.1% to $95,344.86; ether rose 0.9% to $1,819.53.

Looking at the US economic calendar, it’s quiet – we only have the April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30am. Fed officials are quiet due to blackout period. This week also includes JOLTS, consumer confidence, PCE, GDP, ISM manufacturing and April payrolls. Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May FOMC meeting started Saturday.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
• DAX +0.7%
• CAC 40 +0.8%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.26%
• VIX +0.7 points at 25.51
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1226.26
• Euro -0.2% at $1.1347
• WTI crude -0.2% at $62.92/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump posted on Truth that “When Tariffs cut in, many people’s Income Taxes will be substantially reduced, maybe even completely eliminated. Focus will be on people making less than $200,000 a year. Also, massive numbers of jobs are already being created, with new plants and factories currently being built or planned. It will be a BONANZA FOR AMERICA!!! THE EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE IS HAPPENING!!!”. Trump also posted that “…this is a crucial week to work on “THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,” which will contain Massive Tax Cuts, Strong Border Security Measures, Major Military Advancements, Dramatic Deregulation, Powerful Spending Reforms, and more!”
• Trump will meet with House Speaker Johnson at 2pm ET and will be signing executive orders focused on restoring law and order and securing the homeland at 5pm ET on Monday.
• Mark Carney is seeking a fourth Liberal win in Canada in today’s election. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives chipped away at his lead in the final days of the campaign, but surveys still point to a probable Liberal victory. BBG
• Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he’s hopeful for a lasting peace after talking with Trump, who questioned whether Vladimir Putin genuinely wants to end the war, and floated further sanctions. BBG
• Huawei is developing an AI processor that it hopes may replace some Nvidia products, the WSJ reported. BBG
• Trump’s trade war with Beijing is starting to affect the wider US economy as container port operators and air freight managers report sharp declines in goods transported from China. FT
• The drastic reduction in goods from China hasn’t been felt by many Americans yet, but that’s about to change. By the middle of May, thousands of companies — big and small — will be needing to replenish inventories. Giant retailers such as Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. told Trump in a meeting last week that shoppers are likely to see empty shelves and higher prices. BBG
• China’s top economic officials said the country could do without American farm and energy imports as they vowed to achieve a 5% GDP growth target for the year despite the trade war with the US. FT
• China has rejected US President Donald Trump’s claims that he received a phone call from Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The Trump administration has repeatedly asserted over the past week that the US president had spoken by phone with Xi and trade talks took place. SCMP
• A senior South Korean government official ruled out on Monday that Seoul would agree to a trade package with Washington by the time the country holds a presidential election on June 3, and flagged challenges to reaching a deal even before early July. RTRS

Tariffs/Trade

• Chinese President Xi and US President Trump have not had a call recently, according to China’s Foreign Ministry; says the US and China have not conducted negotiations and consultations on tariffs.
• USTR’s office was reported on Friday to have prepared a framework for staggered reciprocal trade negotiations aimed at streamlining talks with 18 partners on a rolling basis over the next 2 months until the US’s July 8th deadline, according to WSJ.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he had interaction with his Chinese counterpart in Washington last week and thinks the Chinese will see the tariff level as unsustainable and he also thinks there is a path to an agreement with China on tariffs, according to ABC News. It was separately reported that Bessent had met with Japanese Finance Minister Kato on Thursday and held productive discussions across a broad range of bilateral issues including reciprocal trade, while he was said to be encouraged by discussions with South Korean officials that focused on an ‘expanded equilibrium’ which encourages rather than restricts trade.
• US Agriculture Secretary said the US is holding daily conversations with China over tariffs.
• China has reportedly quietly exempted some US-made products from tariffs with Beijing said to have been canvassing companies and waiving duties on US goods in sectors where there is a lack of alternatives, according to WSJ.
• Shein is said to have raised US prices on some items by as much as 377% ahead of tariff increases, according to Bloomberg.
• Fox’s Gasparino posted on X that the Trump Administration would like to roll out trade deals this week, at least the outlines that have been agreed upon, citing sources close to the matter.” However, he also noted there are a lot of moving targets that could delay matters, while the deals on deck include India, Japan and maybe South Korea and Australia, although the White House spokesperson didn’t respond to a request for comment.
• Pershing Square CEO Ackman posted on X that the US could choose to unilaterally pause China tariffs to better facilitate US companies transitioning supply chains out of China, while he believes the US and China are incentivised to take tariffs down to more reasonable levels of 10%-20% as quickly as possible.
• South Korean’s Vice Industry Minister says no chance of reaching an agreement on a trade package with the US before the June 3rd snap elections.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed amid a lack of major catalysts from over the weekend and with a very quiet calendar to start a busy week of earnings results and key data releases including the latest US NFP report. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in tech, healthcare and energy, while miners lagged after mixed production updates. Nikkei 225 advanced at the open as participants digested earnings releases and M&A news in which Toyota Motor’s  chairman and founding family made a takeover proposal for Toyota Industries. However, the index has since pulled back from today’s peak after failing to sustain a brief return above the 36,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged amid some disappointment from Beijing’s press conference on policies and measures for stabilising employment, ensuring stable growth and promoting high-quality development which was conducted by the deputy heads of government agencies and the PBoC and lacked any major concrete policy measures. Japan’s TOPIX Index erases all losses since the April 2nd US tariff announcement.

Top Asian News

• China held a press conference about policies and measures on stabilising employment, ensuring stable growth and promoting high-quality development which was attended by deputy heads of Chinese government departments and the PBoC.
• PBoC Deputy Governor said China will cut RRR and interest rates at an appropriate time, as well as guide financial institutions to guarantee financing demand for foreign trade firms. Furthermore, the PBoC is studying plans to enrich policy kits and will roll out new policies when needed, while it will boost financing support for private firms, allowing private firms to issue more debts.
• MOFCOM Vice Minister Sheng said China will further improve the second-hand car markets and will smooth consumption of used car market this year, while China will push the expansion of healthcare and childcare services and actively expand imports.
• China NDRC vice chief said will closely monitor domestic and external changes and improve policy toolkits, while they will unveil new policies based on changes in the economic situation and some new policies will be rolled out in Q2.
• China’s Finance Minister said China will adopt more proactive macroeconomic policies to promote the realisation of the growth target and that China is willing to further open up its super large markets to the world to achieve mutual benefits.
• China’s Cabinet passed the draft law of China’s medical security and will submit it to the NPC Standing Committee for deliberation, while it also approved the Sanmen nuclear power plant in Zhejiang province.
• China issued a notice on further improving tax refund policies for foreign tourists to boost inbound consumption and will promote the expansion of tax refund stores at shopping centres, scenic spots, airports and hotels.
• Chinese President Xi said China will use various policies to support development, while he urged for the healthy and orderly development of AI.
• China’s top market regulator said regarding a media report of separating the Panama Port from the CK Hutchison (1 HK) deal, that they are paying close attention to the transaction and will review it in accordance with the law. Furthermore, the regulator said parties to the transaction must not use any means to avoid a review.
• TikTok owner ByteDance plans to enter online shopping in Japan as it seeks to expand outside of the US.
• Huawei approached some Chinese tech companies about testing the technical feasibility of the new chip called Ascend 910D, according to WSJ.
• Rumours were circulating in social media that DeepSeek’s R2 AI model is nearing release which is set to feature double the parameters of R1.
• Following the Politburo statement on Friday, which flagged further interest rate cuts, a Reuters source close to the PBoC said it was in no rush to trim rates as the impact of tariffs is still unclear.
• BoJ Quarterly Schedule of Outright Purchases of JGBs: pace maintained for May.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened modestly firmer across the board, and have traded rangebound throughout the morning thus far given limited fresh macro drivers. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, but with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Food Beverage & Tobacco takes the top spot, joined closely by Autos. Real Estate sits at the foot of the pile, given the relatively higher yield environment today.

Top European News

• BoE Governor Bailey and US Treasury Secretary Bessent held discussions on financial markets and the regulatory environment.
• ECB’s Centeno said uncertainty is dominating economic analysis which was largely being caused by US trade policy.
• ECB’s Kazaks urged cautious steps and said the ECB should only lower interest rates into accommodative territory if the growth outlook continues to deteriorate much further, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Knot said the ECB June meeting is going to be really complicated, according to European press cited by Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Simkus said the ECB may have to cut rates a couple of more times as US tariffs weigh on economic growth and as inflation continues to slow, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Villeroy says he “does note see any extra inflation for Europe; says we still have margin for rate cuts in Europe”.
• ECB policymakers reportedly are becoming increasingly confident about a rate cut in June although there is little to no appetite for a big move, according to six sources cited by Reuters. It was also reported that the central bank established a task force to simplify banking regulation.
• SNB adjusts the remuneration of sight deposits; lowers the threshold factor to 18 (prev. 20), effective June 1st.

FX

• A choppy session for the Dollar, but ultimately flat on spot month end in what has been the quiet before the storm in terms of news flow thus far, with the rest of the week packed with risk events including the first look at Q1 USD GDP and the US labour market report. There was minimal major and new tariff news, but US consumers may soon feel the impact (e.g. Shein raising prices by up to 377%, logistics slowdown in air freight and imports). DXY currently resides in a relatively tight 99.46-99.84 range.
• EUR is subdued, albeit marginally, against the backdrop of a string of relatively dovish ECB rhetoric, whereby policymakers are becoming increasingly confident about a rate cut in June. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1330-80 range.
• Flat trade for the JPY amidst a lack of major updates over the weekend. US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Japanese Finance Minister Kato on Thursday and held productive discussions across a broad range of bilateral issues including reciprocal trade. USD/JPY resides in a 143.29-143.90 range.
• GBP is slightly firmer in a quiet session thus far to start the week. In terms of UK trade headlines, UK Chancellor Reeves said she met with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, says the goal is reaching an agreement that is in both their national interests. GBP/USD trades in a 1.3280-1.3346 range.
• Antipodeans are lower intraday amid the cautious risk tone alongside ongoing tariff uncertainty between the world’s two largest economies, whilst domestic updates have been light. AUD/USD dipped under Friday’s trough in a 0.6369-0.6406 intraday range.

Fixed Income

• USTs are contained, but do hold a downward bias. Newsflow on the tariff/trade front included indications of a potential path to a US-China agreement, however, specifics have been light with major catalysts ex-geopols a touch light. Amidst this, USTs find themselves in a thin 111-14+ to 111-22+ band. Ahead, the docket is focussed on the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index before the Treasury Financing Estimates ahead of Wednesday’s Quarterly Refunding.
• Bunds are in-fitting with USTs and as such are also in a relatively modest 131.32 to 131.76 band. Developments for the bloc, ex-earnings, have been light. The slight underperformance seen in EGBs vs USTs/Gilts is likely a function of some concession into upcoming EZ supply where over EUR 5bln is expected to be sold across three lines. On the ECB front, Reuters reported that officials are increasingly confident on a June move, though there is little/no appetite for a big move.
• Gilts are essentially unchanged in a very narrow 93.10 to 93.33 band. As above, updates light as we await further details on the meeting between US Treasury Secretary Bessent and BoE Governor Bailey, a discussion on regulation and financial markets which was reported as being “good”.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have been trading very choppy on either side of the unchanged mark, as traders digest the latest US-Iran talks and Ukraine peace talks. On the former, talks are reportedly progressing, but there is still a lot of work to do. WTI and Brent trade at USD and 63.50 and 65.70/bbl respectively.
• Gold is softer, and underperforms within the metals space in a continuation of the sell-off from record highs, printed Tuesday at USD 3500/oz, currently, the yellow metal is trading either side of the USD 3,280/oz mark, with eyes on the USD 3300/oz mark, a level which it retreated from overnight.
• Base metals are mixed, given the flimsy risk tone and after China’s press briefing on policy underwhelmed. 3M LME Copper sits in a busy USD 9,316.15-9,402.85/t range.
• China is stockpiling oil amid Trump tariff shocks impacting crude prices as imports of crude to China surged in March and continued to accelerate in April with imports at nearly 11mln BPD vs 8.9mln BPD in January, according to FT citing Kpler data.
• China Q1 gold consumption fell around 6% Y/Y to 290.5 metric tons and gold production rose 1.5% Y/Y to 87.2 metric tons, according to the China Gold Association.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel’s Defence Minister said Israel conducted an attack on a site in Lebanon’s capital of Beirut which stored precision missiles.
• Qatar’s PM said he saw some progress in Thursday’s Gaza talks.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said the next round of nuclear talks with the US could occur next Saturday with the venue to be decided by Oman, while he added that both sides are showing seriousness and determination. Furthermore, a senior US official said the third round of nuclear talks with Iran were positive and productive with progress made on getting a deal but noted there is still much to do.
• Oman’s Foreign Minister said US-Iran talks will continue with a further high-level meeting provisionally scheduled for May 3rd and core principles, objectives and technical concerns were all addressed in US-Iran talks on Saturday.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu called for the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, insisting that any deal with Tehran must also address its ballistic missile capabilities, according to AFP News Agency.
• A huge explosion at a key Iranian port killed at least 40 and injured around 800 others. It was separately reported that an Iranian Defence Ministry spokesperson said there was no military material in the port affected by the blast, while – Russia will send several planes to Iran to help extinguish the fire at Iran’s port.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Vatican for 15 minutes which Zelensky’s staff said was constructive, covered a lot of ground and they agreed to meet again, while the White House said the meeting was very productive.
• US President Trump said the meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky went well and we’ll see what happens in the next days, while Trump is very disappointed with Russia and wants Russian President Putin to stop shooting and reach a deal. Furthermore, Trump said the confines of a deal are there and that Zelensky is calmer now and wants to make a deal, while it was separately reported that President Trump said he thinks Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready to give up Crimea, according to Al Arabiya.
• US President Trump said there was no reason for Russian President Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns over the last few days which makes him think that Putin doesn’t want to stop the war and is just ‘tapping’ him along, while Trump added too many people are dying and this has to be dealt with differently through banking or secondary sanctions.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said Russia and Ukraine are generally closer to a peace deal than in the last three years and a peace deal needs to happen soon, while he added that the US has options to hold responsible those that don’t want a Ukraine peace deal, according to NBC.
• Russian President Putin confirmed Russia’s readiness to negotiate with Ukraine without preconditions during a meeting with US envoy Witkoff, according to IFAX.
• Russian President Putin said Kyiv’s adventure in the Kursk region completely failed and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov said Ukrainian saboteurs in Russia’s Belgorod region have been liquidated. Furthermore, Russia’s military commander told Russian President Putin that scattered remnants of Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region will be destroyed soon, according to RIA.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia will continue to target sites used by Ukraine’s military, foreign fighters and military instructors sent by Europe, while he added that Russia would be willing to store Iran’s enriched nuclear material if both the US and Iran believe that was useful.
• Ukrainian military said Moscow’s assertion it has ended Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region is not true and operations inside Kursk continue, while its forces are still on active operations in the Belgorod region.
• French President Macron said he had a very positive exchange with Ukrainian President Zelensky and that Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire, while the coalition of the willing will continue working on a ceasefire and lasting peace in Ukraine.
• German Defence Minister Pistorius said US demands for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia are going too far.
• North Korea confirmed troop deployment to Russia and said it will faithfully implement its agreement with Russia, according to Yonhap. Furthermore, South Korea said North Korea’s confirmation of Russia troop deployment is an admission of a criminal act and the US State Department noted it is concerned by North Korea’s direct involvement in Russia’s war in Ukraine, while it added that North Korea’s military deployment to Russia and any support provided by Russia to it in return must end.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump said American military and commercial ships should be allowed to travel free of charge through the Panama and Suez Canals, while he asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to immediately take care of and memorialise this situation.
• India test-fired missiles on Sunday as tensions rise with Pakistan following the Kashmir attack.
• China’s move to claim sovereignty over a disputed reef in the Spratly Islands by planting a flag triggered a stand-off with the Philippines in which the latter sent navy, coastguard and maritime police officers to Sandy Cay and two neighbouring sandbanks to uphold its sovereignty, rights and jurisdiction and displayed the national flag there, according to FT.

US Event Calendar

 

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It was a joyous but painful weekend as Liverpool won the Premier League for only the second time in my adult life but I broke a toe cooking the kids’ dinner! Given you’re no doubt wondering how, I basically caught my right little toe on the kitchen island as I was walking round it. It was extremely painful and ballooned up to nearly the size of a golf ball.
While trying to take my mind off the pain, this week will be the first for a while where data and earnings will compete with tariff headlines as it’s a bumper week on this front. In terms of data the main highlights in the US are payrolls (Friday), core PCE inflation and US GDP (Wednesday), ISM manufacturing (Thursday) and the latest JOLTS and consumer confidence tomorrow. In Europe flash CPI numbers get released from Spain tomorrow, Germany, France and Italy on Wednesday, with the Eurozone aggregate on Friday (our economists’ preview is here). On Wednesday, Q1 GDP reports are due for Germany, France, Italy and the Eurozone. In Asia, the focus will be on the BoJ meeting (Thursday – our preview here) and April PMIs in China (Wednesday).

An avalanche of corporate earnings will centre around results from Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. This will contribute to a whopping 40% of S&P 500 market cap reporting this week. It’s fair to say that these Mag-7 earnings will go a long way to dictating the tone of the week. As I mentioned last week remember that before Liberation Day the main theme bubbling in the background was the Mag-7 underperforming due to DeepSeek, worries about extreme levels of Capex needed to power AI forward, valuations and a disappointing Q4 reporting season around the end of January. Three months on we’ll see what earnings look like.

Elsewhere we see the federal election in Canada today. Remember the ruling Liberal Party were frequently 25pp behind in the polls in early-mid January even after Trudeau had announced his resignation as leader. However after the “51st state” rhetoric and aggressive tariffs, the rally round the flag movement has propelled the Liberals into a 3-4pp lead in current poll of polls which if replicated today would likely give them a small majority. So a remarkable turnaround. Elsewhere in politics, Wednesday will mark President Trump’s first 100 days in office. So expect lots of reflections on this landmark. The UK holds local elections on Thursday with the main point of interest being how well the populist Reform Party does given they have recently edged ahead of the ruling Labour Party in national polls.

So its fair to say its a busy week. Let’s go into more detail on some of the main data points. Firstly, in terms of payrolls, our economists forecast that headline (+125k forecast vs. +228k previously) and private (+125k vs. +209k) payrolls will mean revert after a strong March, particularly within the leisure/hospitality and retail sectors. Our econ team point out that March and April can get whipped around due to the timing of Easter and school spring breaks. Unemployment should remain steady at 4.2% though.

Wednesday’s advance Q1 GDP will be interesting as the consensus suggests only +0.4% annualised growth in the quarter (+1.1% expected at DB vs. +2.4% in Q4) so that will raise some concerns if it materialises. At the same time we see March personal income (+0.5% DB vs. +0.4% last month) and spending (+0.6% DB vs. +0.4%) data. This will also contain the latest reading on the core PCE deflator (+0.1% vs. +0.4%) which is expected to be on the softer side this month. This will be welcome but remember this is all largely pre-tariffs.

The day by day week ahead is at the end as usual, including the highlights from a busy week for earnings on both sides of the Atlantic. One final thing to note is the US Treasury’s updated borrowing estimates (today) and the subsequent refunding announcement (Wednesday). This normally gets released without too much fuss but remember that in Summer 2023 (end July/early August) this quarterly announcement helped cause brief but great stress in markets due to higher than expected borrowing and more long-dated issuance. Since then the Treasury has managed the process with a view to minimising market fears but in an era of large borrowings these events are always worth keeping an eye out for. Our strategists’ preview and forecasts are here.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with local markets mostly higher but US futures notably lower. As I check my screens, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.81%), the Nikkei (+0.51%) are comfortably higher with the KOSPI (+0.15%) seeing more minor gains. Chinese equities are mostly trading around the flatline but S&P 500 (-0.52%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.60%) futures are lower.

Recapping last week now and markets put in a strong performance thanks to several factors. First, Trump signalled that he wanted to make a deal with China, and he said that tariffs on China could fall “substantially” from the 145% level at present. Second, Trump rowed back on his previous criticisms of Fed Chair Powell, saying that he had “no intention” of firing him, which reassured investors concerned about central bank independence. And third, there were increasing signs that the US economy was still holding up relatively well in the circumstances, as data like the weekly jobless claims and the April flash PMIs weren’t signalling a recession.

Against that backdrop, the S&P 500 recovered +4.59% over the week (+0.74% Friday) to close at its highest level since Liberation Day. In fact, the latest moves now leave the index just -2.57% beneath its level on April 2. That move was supported by a very strong performance for the Magnificent 7, which surged +9.17% (+2.86% Friday). And that strength wasn’t just confined to the US, as last week also saw gains for the STOXX 600 (+2.77%), the Nikkei (+2.81%) and the MSCI EM index (+2.67%).

That easing in market stress was evident from several other indicators last week. For instance, US HY credit spreads tightened for a third consecutive week, falling -38bps (-8bps Friday) to 360bps. US real yields also fell back, with the 10yr real yield down -12.3bps (-4.8bps Friday) to 1.97%, closing beneath 2% for the first time in over two weeks. In addition, the VIX index of volatility was down for a third consecutive week, ultimately falling -4.81pts (-1.98pts Friday) to 26.33pts, marking its lowest closing level since Liberation Day.

With the more positive headlines on tariffs and the economy, US assets more broadly began to stabilise, including the US Dollar itself. That saw the dollar index finally post a modest weekly gain after 4 consecutive declines, up +0.24% (+0.09% Friday). Similarly, US Treasury yields moved lower, particularly at the long-end of the curve, and the 10yr yield fell -8.9bps over the week (-8.0bps Friday) to 4.24%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline.

Justin Trudeau’s far-left regime in Canada has finally come to an end as the politician exits leadership in disgrace.  His legacy includes authoritarian governance during the pandemic, whereby he threw Christian church goers and pastors in prison for refusing to stop congregations.  He called for mass forced vaccinations, and he locked the bank accounts of protesters speaking out against the covid mandates.  His admin compared people donating to the cause to “terrorists”. 

His socialist economic policies helped to exacerbate Canada’s inflation crisis and his open immigration policies greatly expanded the the flood of third-world foreigners, driving up housing prices, crushing the labor market and straining social services.  By most accounts, the majority of Canadians were ecstatic to see Trudeau exit the stage. 

But what if they still haven’t learned their lesson?  How is that even possible?

According to recent polls for the 2025 election set for April 28th, it is likely that Canadians have very short memories or they’re gluttons for punishment.  Why?  Because Mark Carney and the Liberal Party are projected to make considerable gains.  Carney has rebranded himself as a “centrist” in order to win public favor, but nothing could be further from the truth.  Mark Carney is, in fact, worse than Trudeau on every level.

What should Canadians expect under a Carney regime?  More mass immigration, not less.  Higher inflation and a suffocating housing market.  Increasing political and economic tensions with the US, which Canada is dependent on for 75% of its export market (and there is no replacement).  Policies pressuring Canadians into a cashless system.  The detrimental institution of carbon controls and climate change rules for industry and energy.  And, even less national sovereignty as Canada is made more beholden to the EU.

Lets start with immigration…

While Carney claims he wants caps on immigration, his advisor choices suggest Canadians will get more of the same.  The central banker has tapped Mark Wiseman, co-founder of the Century Initiative lobby group as part of his policy council.  The Century Initiative under the former BlackRock executive publicly endorsed the Trudeau government’s moves to take in 500,000 new immigrants per year by 2025. 

It should be noted that as Canada increased immigration their economy suffered exponential decline. Between 2015 and 2024, Canada’s ranking in the Human Development Index plummeted from 9th to 18th, while the country fell behind Italy in the average growth of real GDP per capita.  Canada’s housing market and social services are essentially broken.

And how about individual freedom?

It’s no secret that the Liberal Party widely supported the lockdowns and mandatory vaccinations.  However, where did Carney stand on the issue?  

Carney acted as an “informal adviser” to Trudeau throughout the covid event and supported the mandates wholeheartedly.  In an opinion article for The Globe And Mail titled ‘It’s Time To End The Sedition In Ottawa By Enforcing The Law And Following The Money’,  Carney wrote in reference to the Trucker Protests against the mandates:

“No one should have any doubt…This is sedition. That’s a word I never thought I’d use in Canada. It means incitement of resistance to or insurrection against lawful authority.” 

“The constant blaring of horns at all hours, the harassment of people, the culture of fear have been making residents’ lives hell, will bankrupt our businesses and if left unchecked would help achieve the Convoy’s goal of undermining our democracy…Anyone sending money to the Convoy should be in no doubt: you are funding sedition. Foreign funders of an insurrection interfered in our domestic affairs.”  

These are the words of an authoritarian, using “democracy” as a cover to institute a sweeping crackdown on public freedoms. 

Where does Carney stand on the economy?

Mark Carney is a long time Davo elitist, and as such he is an adherent of Klaus Schwab’s “4th Industrial Revolution” theory and the concept of the “Great Reset”.  Specifically, Carney is an avid champion of the WEF’s climate change agenda and their efforts to make “climate consciousness” inseparable from business culture.  Meaning, Carney will undoubtedly bury Canada in climate controls and carbon taxes, snuffing out their industry and energy base just as the globalists have been doing in Europe.   

Furthermore, Carney is deeply involved in the push for national and global Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).  In his 2021 book ‘Values”, Carney calls for revolutionary centralization of the global monetary system and the launch of CBDCs as the new standard.  He has actively campaigned against cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and any form of decentralized money, claiming instead that the future requires a global digital currency to replace the dollar system (NOTE: Carney did not come up with this idea, this has been a ongoing plan within the BIS and IMF for decades).

“If properly designed, a CBDC could serve all the functions to which private cryptocurrencies and stablecoins aspire while addressing the fundamental legal and governance issues that will, in time, undermine those alternatives…”

At bottom, Carney is calling for a cashless society controlled by the banking oligarchy.  Without cash or an independent form of trade, all personal economic freedom dies.  Carney licks his chops over this prospect when he states (in reference to the covid crisis):

“With fear on the march, people were willing to surrender to Hobbes’ ‘Leviathan’ such basic rights as the freedom to leave their homes. And so it is with money. People will support the delegation to independent central banks of the tough decisions that are necessary to maintain the value of money provided the authorities deliver monetary and financial stability…”

This is not the man Canadians should be voting for if they have any interest in changing the current Orwellian path their country is on.  Critics claim that it’s Donald Trump’s tariffs that are to blame for the shift in the polls in Carney’s favor. Yet, if Carney is elected he would be the most disastrous choice in negotiating a settlement with the US.  The situation will only become more ugly for Canada in every way.

This is not a “new boss, same as the old boss” scenario.  Carney is far higher up on the totem pole of degradation than Trudeau and much more devious.