MMN Editor

“Mission Accomplished”: BOJ Declares Victory Over Deflation, Then Speeds Up ETF Dump To A Breakneck 43 Years

Fourteen years, three governors, negative rates, yield curve control and the largest central bank equity hoard in history later, the Bank of Japan finally said the words.In its quarterly Outlook Report released overnight alongside a widely expected decision to keep the policy rate at 1.25% (by an 8-1 vote, with hawk Hajime Takata dissenting in favor of a hike to 1.50%), the BOJ quietly retired the phrase it has used for years, that it expects to achieve its 2% target “between the second half of fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027”, and replaced it with this:”underlying CPI inflation is at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2 percent.”In other words, the war on deflation that has defined the Japanese economy for three decades is, officially, over. Reuters called it the BOJ declaring “victory in a nearly 14-year battle to hit its price target”; the FT went with victory in a war “that had defined the Japanese economy for decades.” We’d go with something shorter: mission accomplished. Which, as anyone who remembers the original banner will tell you, tends to be the point where the real trouble starts.And in case anyone thought the BOJ was just going to sit back and enjoy the moment, the central bank also nearly tripled the pace of its ETF sales, a surprise that nobody had in their models, and which shortens the time it will take to unwind its massive equity pile from 112 years to… 43 years. Progress!A Hawkish Hold… With An AsteriskWe start with Goldman, whose Japan economist Tomohiro Ota summarized the decision in his post-meeting note “BOJ: Status Quo Maintained at October MPM, Underlying Inflation Assessed as Generally Consistent with Price Stability Target” (available to pro subs). The headline numbers barely moved: the growth forecast was “broadly unchanged” while the inflation forecasts were nudged lower for FY2026 and higher for FY2027 to reflect the jump in crude since the summer (with Brent at $116 this morning, probably not the last time we’ll hear that excuse):Regarding the price outlook, while the BOJ slightly lowered its inflation forecast for FY2026, it raised its core CPI (excludes fresh food) forecast for FY2027 from +2.4% to +2.6%, and its new core CPI (excludes fresh food and energy) from +2.6% to +2.7%, reflecting the effects of the higher crude oil since the summer (the BOJ’s inflation outlook figures do not incorporate the consumption tax reduction on food from FY2027).The full table is worth a second look, because the BOJ’s FY2026 core-core forecast was actually cut to 2.4% from 2.5%, and Goldman’s own forecasts sit below the BOJ’s across the board, with GS seeing core-core at 1.9% in FY2028. So the central bank declared victory on underlying inflation on the same morning its own near-term forecast drifted lower, and the same morning Tokyo core-core CPI decelerated to 2.6% from 2.9%, according to Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid. Maybe a coincidence. Maybe a central bank that has waited 14 years to say the words and wasn’t going to let a soft Tokyo print ruin the occasion.The rest of the statement was a copy-paste of September. Risks to growth remain “generally balanced,” risks to prices are still “skewed to the upside” (Middle East, AI, FX), and the BOJ kept the language, used since June, that it “will continue to raise the policy interest rate.” The one new line Goldman flagged was a cautionary note about foreign central banks:We highlight that the Outlook Report also added a cautionary note that many foreign central banks have shifted to a policy of raising rates since the summer, and how these would affect Japan’s economic activity and prices through global financial market channels should be closely watched. We think this implies the BOJ’s caution on risk of yen depreciation due to rate hikes by foreign central banks.Translation: with Warsh’s Fed and the ECB both eyeing hikes, the rate differential isn’t closing, and the yen knows it. More on that below.Ueda’s press conference delivered the hawkish part of the “hawkish hold.” The BOJ had entered a new “phase,” he said, one focused on the risk of inflation overshooting rather than undershooting, and the Board will debate a hike at every meeting, including December:”It’s important to anchor underlying inflation around our target. That doesn’t mean we will just sit and wait. We will adjust monetary policy as appropriate so that underlying inflation becomes anchored around 2%… We must therefore be vigilant to the risk of inflation overshooting our target.”Reuters notes that the BOJ raised rates in June and again in September, a much faster cadence than the roughly twice-a-year hikes of 2024 and 2025, and most economists it polled now expect a hike to 1.5% in December, with the terminal rate centered on 1.75% to 2%. Meiji Yasuda’s Kazutaka Maeda went a step further, saying the BOJ “may now be contemplating increases every three months.” Here is how the full journey from negative rates looks, with the market and Goldman’s end-2027 calls tacked on:Note the gap at the far right: per Goldman’s rates strategists, OIS is pricing the BOJ policy rate at about 2.04% by end-2027, versus Goldman’s 1.75% forecast. So the market is already more hawkish than the house, which matters for what happened next in FX.The Real Surprise: 43 Years (Down From 112)With the rate decision priced to perfection, the only genuine curveball was the ETF announcement, which we flagged in real time just minutes after the rate decision hit:BOJ CHANGE OF ETF SALES PACE TO START JAN. 2027BOJ: ANNUAL PACE OF ETF SALES ABOUT 860B YENBOJ EXPECTS ETF SALES TO BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 43 YEARS https://t.co/IKTWDvJrA9— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 30, 2026
The details, again courtesy of Goldman’s Ota: the ETF sales that began in January 2026 at an annual pace of ¥330bn (book value) will be increased to ¥860bn per year from January 2027 (a unanimous vote, in case anyone was wondering how controversial selling stocks at a 43-year pace is). “The change will shorten the time horizon required to complete the ETF selling, from 112 years to around 43 years.”Goldman’s FX desk, in its morning update (available to pro subs), called the acceleration “the only real surprise,” noting it shortens the unwind “to around just a mere 43 years.” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid was even drier: “Probably beyond the natural life of the EMR regardless of the pace!”Regular readers will recall that when the BOJ first unveiled the ETF unwind back in September 2025, we summed it up in “BOJ Shocks Market With Start Of ETF Selling As It Keeps Rates Unchanged” with one line: you won’t be alive to see the BOJ sell 20% of its ETF holdings, let alone all of it. Ueda himself admitted as much at the time: “We won’t be here in 100 years’ time. But our intention is to keep selling for more than 100 years.” Well, at 43 years the math has improved, but for most of the BOJ’s board (and most of ZH’s readers) our original call still stands, so we’ll allow ourselves a modest victory lap.Some napkin math: ¥860bn a year for 43 years implies a book value of roughly ¥37 trillion (the same figure you get from ¥330bn over 112 years). The market value is far higher: the stockpile was worth over ¥75 trillion when the unwind was announced, and the Nikkei has gone up another ~25% this year alone.”Overdone”… Says The Market That Fell 2% AnywaySo how did Japanese stocks take the news that their biggest shareholder is now selling almost three times faster? According to Bloomberg, with “confidence.” Aizawa Securities’ Yukihiro Kawanishi pointed out that the BOJ’s planned selling of roughly ¥2.4 trillion a year at market value compares with average daily Topix turnover of about ¥9 trillion. Put differently, the BOJ will dump about a quarter of one day’s trading volume… per year.The Nikkei did close down 2.1%, but that had everything to do with the AI and chip unwind after Intel and Amazon (Murata -11%, plus a 16% plunge in Fujitsu on an earnings miss) and very little to do with the BOJ, as Goldman’s regional desk noted; banks actually outperformed into the decision. It does cap what Goldman’s APAC desk calls the worst October for the Nikkei since 2018, a story we covered earlier this morning in “Futures Slide As AI Reckoning Claims Amazon, Intel; Oil Jumps On Hormuz Tanker Hits.” Even so, the index is still up about 25% YTD on top of last year’s 26%, so the BOJ is selling into one of the best two-year runs in decades. Timing, as they say, is everything.There was another, less advertised beneficiary. Bloomberg Economics’ Taro Kimura noted that most of the realized gains from the sales are likely to be remitted to government coffers, which helps fund PM Sanae Takaichi’s “ambitious fiscal plans.” So the BOJ’s equity unwind doubles as a modest revenue stream for one of the developed world’s most indebted governments. Monetary and fiscal policy have never been closer… or as Japan likes to call it, Tuesday.The Yen: Enough To Justify Pricing, Not Enough To Move ItAnd then there’s the yen, which is the only market that really matters here. The BOJ’s victory declaration was supposed to be the hawkish catalyst, yet the yen initially strengthened after the decision before paring gains as Ueda “offered few fresh clues on timing,” per Goldman’s regional wrap, and was trading around 157-158 per dollar. Deutsche’s Reid had it up just 0.22% at 157.38 heading into the presser.Goldman’s FX desk explains why:Given rates pricing going into the meeting, there was a high bar for a hawkish surprise, but GS FX Research feel like there was enough to justify current pricing but not push it further – consistent with the lack of market reaction. The event weight therefore significantly underperformed, similar to the Fed & ECB earlier in the week, contributing to the broader reprice lower in FX vols. GS Trading view this week’s JPY price action as very different to last week’s “risk-off equals JPY buying” dynamic, which raises the risk of grind higher in xJPY as positioning gets trimmed again.And the kicker: Goldman’s FX strategists “remain of the view that any further domestic policy shifts… will take time to occur, if at all, and therefore also see near-term headwinds for JPY given the punitive carry and BoJ under-delivery risks.” Goldman’s JPY positioning score has already swung back into positive territory, which leaves plenty of room for disappointment:This is the same story we’ve been telling since the summer. The BOJ hikes, the yen briefly cheers, the Fed (or now the ECB too) out-hawks it, and the carry trade reasserts itself. When the BOJ hiked to 1.25% on September 18, the yen promptly plunged until the BOJ conducted a “rate check,” which as we wrote in “Yen Jumps On Report Of BOJ “Rate Check” But It’s “Too Little Too Late”” (Sep 18), only slowed the bleeding. And that came after Japan’s record July-August intervention, which was funded by selling almost $90 billion in Treasuries.The GPIF WildcardWhich brings us to the one domestic shift that could actually move the needle. In a companion note “Q&A on a Potential GPIF Allocation Shift” (also available to pro subs), Goldman’s senior FX strategist Karen Fishman walks through what it would take for Japan’s giant pension whale to bring money home. The answer: not much. GPIF doesn’t even need to change its targets, since its current allocations sit at the midpoint of the allowable bands:Based on holdings at the end of June 2026, roughly $90bn of purchases of domestic bonds and roughly $125bn of purchases of domestic equities would bring the allocation shares to the top of the allowable bands on the domestic side, all else equal. Such flows in each asset would be roughly comparable in size to Japan’s JPY intervention in July-August, though spread out over more than a few days. In any case, we continue to believe that the signal in any shift by GPIF should matter more than the actual flow, especially as it should lead other investors to follow.The earliest realistic timeline is Spring 2027, at the fiscal-year-end “annual verification.” Until then, Fishman argues, short USDJPY is “a much more attractive portfolio hedge now than it has been in recent years, especially with the likelihood of greater AI-related volatility that could push both equities and yields lower together.” Readers will recall that Tokyo has been nudging pensions homeward since July (“”GPIF To The Rescue?” Yen Jumps After Japan Urges Pension Funds To Invest More At Home”), and the same repatriation logic is behind the relentless Treasury selling we flagged in “Focus Turns To Japan As Source Of Relentless Treasury Selling” (Sep 30) and the French bond rout in “Sayonara, OATs” (Oct 5). Every BOJ hike makes “home” a little more attractive for Japan’s trillions parked abroad, and that is the channel through which today’s decision reaches global bond markets.Victory Declared, Yen UnimpressedSo where does that leave us? The BOJ has declared victory over deflation, signaled December is live, and put its ETF unwind on a schedule that at least some of today’s traders might live to see. Ueda’s own framing is that the job now is to keep inflation anchored at 2%, which, with Brent at $116, the yen near 158 and a food consumption-tax cut set to muddy the data from FY2027, sounds a lot harder than getting there.Goldman’s Ota will be watching four things for the timing of the next move: i) Ueda’s view on the exchange rate and yen-driven inflation risk, ii) the impact of tighter financial conditions, iii) the risk of inflation overshooting 2%, and iv) the level of the neutral rate. Note that the first item on that list is the yen. That is the tell. The market is already pricing more hikes than Goldman expects, the yen is barely responding, and every major central bank is leaning hawkish at the same time. Which means the BOJ probably delivers in December… and the yen probably shrugs again, until either MoF picks up the phone or GPIF picks up the bond ticket. We’d bet on the phone call coming first.After all, it took the BOJ 14 years to hit 2% and it will take 43 more to sell the stocks it bought trying. Patience, in Japan, is a policy tool too.Much more in the full Goldman Japan Economics note “BOJ: Status Quo Maintained at October MPM” and the “Q&A on a Potential GPIF Allocation Shift” note, both available to pro subs.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/30/2026 – 09:42

Tech, AI, & Semis Aren’t The Only Problem…

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe FinanceWhile the Nasdaq is getting its teeth kicked in Friday morning on disappointing earnings from Amazon and Intel, I’m keeping a close eye on another corner of the market that I believe could play an outsized role in the next major selloff: cryptocurrency.I’ve argued before that crypto could either catalyze or exacerbate the next market crash. In my opinion, it remains the most liquid tip of the speculative risk spear, and three developments over the last several days have only reinforced my concerns.And in my piece, Is Bitcoin Too Deep in the Fabric of the U.S. Financial System?, I laid out that I think bitcoin is inside the walls of the financial system. And once you start weaving something this volatile into pensions, ETFs, corporate treasuries, and now retirement plans, unwinding it without collateral damage becomes nearly impossible.So today, let’s just put aside Intel, Google and Amazon. I think at this point everyone knows how the AI trade could wind up coming undone. Let’s look at three developments in crypto…all occurring yesterday…that have my focus on that sector specifically today.First, the obvious: the staggering $6.3 billion Binance hack.According to CNBC, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange estimates that $6.3 billion in digital assets were affected by a security breach that could rank as the largest crypto hack in history, more than four times the approximately $1.5 billion stolen from Bybit in 2025.Binance’s preliminary investigation suggests attackers may have compromised an employee’s laptop, gained access to internal systems and initiated unauthorized withdrawals. The company has since clarified that the intrusion was more complex than the misuse of a single employee’s permissions and that there is no evidence of compromised wallet private keys.Approximately $3 billion in affected assets have reportedly been frozen, with Circle, Tether and Ripple helping prevent stolen funds from moving. Binance has pledged to reimburse customers using its Secure Asset Fund for Users and company resources, while temporarily suspending withdrawals and overhauling security protocols.Bitcoin, meanwhile, dropped more than 4% Friday morning, briefly falling below $78,000.It’s reassuring that Binance says customers will be made whole. But a multibillion-dollar security breach at one of the industry’s most important institutions hardly inspires confidence in the infrastructure underpinning the entire speculative ecosystem.Second, a less obvious development in crypto but one worth noting nonetheless. Strategy (MSTR) just disclosed the abrupt departure of its CFO.Andrew Kang will step down November 5, although he’ll remain in an advisory capacity through December, it was disclosed yesterday. The company says his departure is for personal reasons and was not the result of any disagreement concerning its operations or financial practices.There’s no evidence suggesting otherwise. But the succession arrangement is worth noting. Reza Virasteh, currently Strategy’s EVP of Operations, will assume the CFO role, while CEO Phong Le is expected to become principal financial officer in January. Le will retain responsibility for managing the company’s Bitcoin financial strategy, with the two serving as co-principal financial officers.I’m not suggesting Kang’s departure indicates wrongdoing or financial distress. But when the CFO of a company built around some type of financial engineering abruptly leaves during a period of market turbulence, I think it’s worth paying attention.Third, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has established a plan to potentially sell more than $1 billion in company stock.According to an October 29 SEC disclosure, Armstrong adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan allowing him to sell up to 8.17 million shares through October 2027, worth approximately $1.31 billion at Thursday’s closing price.He’s not alone. Coinbase co-founder Fred Ehrsam has adopted a plan covering approximately 3.87 million shares, worth $621 million, while President and COO Emilie Choi has established one covering approximately 1.56 million shares, potentially worth another $251 million.That’s nearly $2.2 billion in potential stock sales across three of Coinbase’s most prominent insiders. To be clear, these aren’t completed transactions. The plans were adopted in August and September, are subject to predetermined price thresholds and may not result in the sale of every share. Armstrong’s plan also involves exercising vested options, so the headline value doesn’t represent his eventual net proceeds.There’s no evidence these executives possess some secret knowledge about an impending collapse. Executives diversify their wealth all the time. Still, I find the magnitude noteworthy, especially with crypto markets already showing signs of stress.It’s not any kind of smoking gun. It’s just another development worth filing away.85% OFF FOREVER IF YOU SUBSCRIBE TODAY: I am again offering an 85% discount to anyone that wants to become a Fringe Finance annual subscriber today. It’s a discount you can keep and stays applied for as long as you wish to remain a subscriber: Get 85% off foreverHere’s why I think all three matter.I’ve repeatedly argued that crypto could play a meaningful role in the next major market crash, not necessarily because Bitcoin itself must implode, but because of how speculative leverage and liquidity interact when investors begin scrambling for cash.Crypto trades around the clock, attracts enormous speculative activity and is increasingly connected to traditional financial markets through ETFs, public companies, institutional ownership and financing arrangements.When investors need liquidity, crypto is among the first assets they can sell. And when leveraged positions begin getting liquidated, selling can feed on itself regardless of what anybody thinks the underlying assets are worth.Losses in one market can force selling in another. Falling collateral values produce margin calls, which produce more selling. Eventually, seemingly unrelated markets can begin moving together as investors scramble to reduce risk.We saw how quickly that dynamic could unfold during the 2022 crypto collapse, when Terra, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius and FTX exposed the industry’s interconnected leverage and counterparty risks.Crypto didn’t cause the broader equity bear market that year, but it demonstrated how quickly liquidity and confidence can evaporate. Today, crypto’s connections to conventional financial markets are arguably even more extensive.And I’ve also pointed out one big crypto risk that could come to fruition in the next week specifically as we head into midterms:b The Crypto Risk No One Is DiscussingNow, back up and again consider the bigger picture.Over just the last month or two, we’ve witnessed an increasingly concerning collection of developments:Oracle invoking force majeure over power-supply delays at a major data center project, highlighting infrastructure constraints.A deteriorating housing market, with affordability stretched and transactions under pressure.Scorching-hot PPI, complicating the prospect of additional Federal Reserve easing.CoreWeave shares collapsing, as investors question the economics and financing of AI infrastructure.Investors questioning potential selective disclosure in Anthropic’s IPO, particularly the absence of more recent financial results.Google disappointing investors, with enormous AI spending raising questions about future returns.Intel disappointing investors, adding pressure to semiconductor sentiment.Amazon disappointing investors, with massive capital expenditures and weak free cash flow unsettling Wall Street.And next week, earnings from Apple, AMD, Arm and others will give investors even more to digest.The AI trade is beginning to confront questions about cash flow and financing. Housing is struggling. Inflation remains a problem. And now crypto, one of the most speculative and liquid corners of the financial system, is showing its own signs of strain.My concern is that crypto could help turn an ordinary correction into something considerably uglier if falling prices, forced liquidations and deteriorating confidence begin feeding on one another.While everybody is staring at the Nasdaq and semis, I still wouldn’t take my eyes off crypto. Sometimes the first domino isn’t the one everybody is watching.–QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/30/2026 – 09:35

DALLAS — Democrats see a rare opening in Texas, and James Talarico is giving them their clearest shot in years at turning one of the state’s two Senate seats blue. If he pulls off the upset, the former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian could knock the first brick loose in Texas’ red wall.The polling and fundraising figures help explain why Democrats see that possibility.To put it in perspective, Talarico’s polling leads are wider than those recorded against Ted Cruz in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke came closer than any Democrat in decades to winning a Texas Senate race. And the enthusiasm on the ground from those who spoke with Fox News Digital backs up the numbers.DEEP IN TRUMP COUNTRY, A NEW GENERATION REVEALS THE DIVIDE BEHIND TEXAS’ TIGHT SENATE RACEWhat’s more, Talarico’s campaign raised $64 million from July through September, more than three times Trump-backed candidate Ken Paxton’s $18 million haul over the same period. Since launching his campaign, Talarico has raised more than $146 million.But Paxton, currently the state’s attorney general, has enjoyed Republican outside groups pouring more than $200 million into Texas to support him, nearly all of it bankrolled by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man. Additionally, MAGA Inc., President Donald Trump’s principal super PAC, has spent another $33.7 million on ads backing Paxton, according to AdImpact.At his Dallas rally on Thursday, Talarico underscored that divide by casting the race as a David and Goliath fight, telling supporters they were his weapon against powerful interests.”David wasn’t as big or as strong as Goliath. He didn’t have as many weapons, but he had hope. He had faith, and he had a slingshot,” he said. “Dallas, you are my slingshot. The people of Texas are my slingshot.”Talarico’s momentum has also shown up on the campaign trail.Earlier this week, Talarico hopscotched across Texas, stopping in El Paso before holding events in Midland and Amarillo and drawing a larger-than-expected crowd in deep-red Lubbock on Tuesday.Meanwhile, Trump campaigned with Paxton about four miles away that same night, shifting his rally time so it overlapped with Talarico’s event.The dueling rallies put the race’s divide on display. Talarico’s campaign said more than 4,000 people signed up for his Lubbock rally, prompting a move to a larger venue.”I know that we’re not the only show in town tonight, and I appreciate all 4,000 of you that showed up here this evening,” Talarico said at the Fiesta Center in Lubbock on Oct. 27. “That’s a lot of Talafreakos in one room.”The Democratic candidate and his supporters have embraced the moniker “Talafreako,” a nickname first given to him as a derogatory dig by Republicans and President Trump.Voters at Talarico’s rallies in Lubbock told Fox News Digital that Trump’s repeated Texas visits signaled Republican anxiety, while Paxton backers remained confident the state would stay red after a costly and contentious primary that saw Republicans divided over Paxton and sitting Sen. John Cornyn, who was ultimately ousted in the May runoff.”Trump’s in Lubbock? Trump’s in Lubbock, Texas? He’s scared, he is scared,” one supporter told Fox News Digital.Natalie, from Friona, called Trump’s same-day rally a sign Republicans were “nervous.””I think it’s performative, like to come the exact same day as he is here,” she said.Jenny, from Brownsville, told Fox News Digital outside Trump and Paxton’s rally that the race was “not close” and she predicted that “Paxton will wipe the floor” with Talarico.DUELING RALLIES THRUST DEEP-RED LONE STAR TOWN INTO THE CENTER OF THE POLITICAL UNIVERSEBeyond the rally crowds, some Talarico supporters in Dallas and Lubbock said Paxton’s past legal controversies and impeachment by the Texas House shaped their views of the Republican nominee.”We’re here in support of honesty, decency and integrity,” Lori, a Dallas voter who has voted Republican in the past, told Fox News Digital. “That’s what we like to see in a candidate, and we think Talarico is all that in one.”George, a lifelong Texan at the Dallas rally, said years of watching Texas politics had become “heartbreaking” and called Talarico “a breath of fresh air.”In Lubbock, Georgia cited several of Talarico’s policies and called him “authentic.” She also said his lack of an indictment was a plus, contrasting him with Paxton.MEET THE VOTERS WHO COULD BREAK THE GOP’S DECADES-LONG GRIP ON A REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLDElias, a nurse from Lubbock, said Paxton’s past controversies and impeachment by the Texas House reflected poorly on the Republican nominee.”I think it shows that Paxton is a weak leader,” Elias told Fox News Digital. “He had a chance to kind of redeem himself despite his ugly past, but he’s not a man, he can’t stand up for himself. He needs daddy Trump to come and support him.”With Election Day on Nov. 3, the question is whether Talarico can turn rally crowds and a polling lead into a historic win. A victory would crack the GOP’s decades-long grip on Texas. A loss would leave Democrats still searching for a path to turn the state blue.

Former Rep. Mary Peltola said in August 2026 that “it should be a criminal offense to lie or mislead the electorate.” (@NRSC / X screenshot)
The legal battle over Alaska’s controversial U.S. Senate election intensified Thursday after Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) filed a new motion asking a federal judge to throw out the Trump Justice Department’s lawsuit.
In a Motion to Dismiss the Amended Complaint filed October 29 in United States v. State of Alaska, attorneys for Alaskans for Mary and the DSCC, including lawyers from the Elias Law Group, insist that the NYT’s detailed account of a “ballot composition project” to recruit a namesake spoiler carries “no legal significance.”
They label the entire set of allegations a “distraction” from what they call the DOJ’s “meritless claims.” When the DOJ pointed to the campaign’s earlier court statements as misleading, the motion dismissed the charge with one word: “Nonsense.”
The Gateway Pundit has extensively documented the scheme for months. In June, TGP reported how Democrat operatives worked to place a same-name challenger on the ballot as a Republican primary spoiler specifically to confuse voters and siphon support from incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, the President’s endorsee.
After the Alaska Division of Elections initially barred him as a non-good-faith candidate, state courts ordered his inclusion; he advanced with roughly 2.5% of the primary vote.
The New York Times report, based on interviews with about a dozen people involved or informed of the effort, text messages, and documents, described an internal “ballot composition project” in which Peltola campaign staff were directed in summer 2025 to search voter records for Alaskans named Dan Sullivan. A Midwestern operative reportedly traveled the state under a fake name, pitching candidates over beers, including to retired Petersburg teacher Daniel J. Sullivan.
The goal, according to the reporting: dilute the incumbent’s support on Alaska’s ranked-choice, top-four ballot so Peltola could win. Former Peltola aide Elisa Rios was among the sources; the campaign and DSCC have denied recruiting candidates.
In the court filing, the intervenors concede the amended complaint adds “additional allegations, based on recent press reports, about how Daniel J. Sullivan came to run for office and why,” but claim they “change nothing.”
They argue the NVRA (which the DOJ cites) regulates only voter registration, not ballot design or candidate qualifications; that statements of purpose create no enforceable duties; and that the DOJ lacks constitutional authority to interfere in state elections absent a clear statute.
They further contend there is no plausible evidence of voter confusion given the ballot’s distinctions, different middle initials, “Incumbent” next to Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (Registered Republican), and no party designation for the other Sullivan, and that any post-election investigation into voter motives would be impossible because of secret ballots and unlawful under the Constitution.
The motion urges dismissal with prejudice before Election Day and notes agreement with the League of Women Voters that sanctions should be considered.
The campaign’s tone is dismissive even as the legal and investigative pressure mounts. President Trump has publicly called for Peltola and those involved to be prosecuted, stating they “got caught” and that false statements under oath could constitute perjury.
Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered a state Department of Public Safety investigation after the NYT report, citing an organized effort to confuse voters. The decoy candidate reportedly refused to answer questions under oath and has conducted no campaign events. The DOJ has issued a flurry of subpoenas.

The post Peltola Campaign and DSCC Call NYT ‘Decoy Dan’ Bombshell a Mere ‘Distraction’ and Brand DOJ’s Court Accusations ‘Nonsense’ in Desperate Motion to Dismiss appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

Photo courtesy of Gavin Newsom on Facebook.
A new House Judiciary Committee report states that authorities in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego ignored a combined 8,901 ICE detainers, allowing criminal aliens with records that included homicide, sexual assault, kidnapping, burglary, weapons offenses, and child abuse to be released back into communities.
The 22-page interim staff report, led by Chairman Jim Jordan and Rep. Tom McClintock, was released on Thursday.
According to the report, the Los Angeles Police Department honored just four of the 4,177 ICE detainers it received between January 2020 and June 2026, a compliance rate below 0.1 percent.
The San Francisco Sheriff’s Office rejected all 2,201 detainers it received between January 2020 and August 2026.
The San Diego County Sheriff’s Office declined 2,527 detainers between January 2023 and June 2026, including 894 in the last year.
The report details:
The effects of Los Angeles’s longstanding pro-criminal alien policies have been devastating. Herbert Nixon Flores, an illegal alien from El Salvador, “had been ordered removed and physically deported from the United States 10 times” since 1990. His criminal history “included carrying a concealed weapon, trespassing, burglary, disturbing the peace, possession and transportation of a controlled substance, impersonation, driving under the influence, driving without a license, driving with a suspended license, resisting arrest, vandalism, criminal threats and illegal entry.” On September 7, 2020, he was arrested “for a domestic violence with injury charge by [LAPD].” The next day, ICE lodged a detainer with LAPD, but local law enforcement released Nixon Flores onto California streets. Four months later, Nixon Flores murdered his ex-girlfriend in front of their young child. In other cases, LAPD’s compliance with sanctuary laws meant declining detainers for criminal aliens who were later arrested for committing serious crimes, including murder.
Other examples used included David Mora Rojas, a Mexican national who overstayed a visa and was arrested five days before the February 2022 Sacramento church shooting in which he killed his three daughters and another man before killing himself.
ICE had requested notification of his release, but he was freed on bail.
The report also pointed to Anatoly Varfolomeev, who testified before Congress that his 19-year-old daughter Anya and her friend were killed in a November 2021 crash by Oscar Eduardo Ortega-Anguiana, a previously deported Mexican national driving nearly 100 mph, and blamed California’s policies for enabling the deaths.
Bill Essayli, first assistant U.S. attorney for the Central District of California, told the New York Post that the “blanket disregard of all immigration detainers is one of the largest public safety threats to our country.”
“States like California are actively shielding criminal illegal immigrants from deportation to score political points. They would rather release these criminals back into the community than allow ICE to do its congressionally mandated job.”
Essayli concluded, “Sanctuary state policies are not only wrong, they’re deeply un-American.”
These reckless California policies stem from the 2013 Trust Act and the 2017 California Values Act, which generally barred state and local resources from being used to assist federal immigration enforcement, with some exceptions for certain serious crimes.
The report notes that California authorities released 4,561 immigrants sought by federal agents between January 20, 2025, and early February 2026, and that ICE had 33,179 active detainers for criminal illegal aliens in the state as of February 2026.
Governor Newsom’s office has previously claimed that California “blocks” cooperation with ICE are false and that the state has transferred more than 12,000 people from state prisons into ICE custody since 2019, while accusing federal officials of failing to pick up roughly one in eight state prisoners with outstanding detainers.
The governor’s office did not respond to the Post’s request for comment on the new report.
Republicans are advancing the Shut Down Sanctuary Policies Act, which would prohibit state and local measures restricting cooperation with federal immigration authorities.
The Judiciary Committee advanced the bill in March.
In the conclusion of their report, the committee wrote:
Democrats’ open-borders policies and sanctuary jurisdictions have had devastating consequences for U.S. citizens. Even after the American people resoundingly rejected Democrats’ pro-illegal alien policies in November 2024, Democrats across the country reinforced sanctuary policies to ensure that the millions of illegal aliens who entered the U.S. are never removed from the country. California is just one example of Democrats’ efforts to erase national borders and undermine immigration enforcement. Meanwhile, President Trump and House and Senate Republicans continue to work on commonsense solutions to secure the border, enforce federal immigration law, and protect American communities.
On March 5, 2026, the Committee favorably reported H.R. 7640, the Shut Down Sanctuary Policies Act. The Shut Down Sanctuary Policies Act protects American communities by prohibiting state and local laws and policies that restrict cooperation with federal immigration officials. The bill also would defend cooperative jurisdictions from frivolous lawsuits from sanctuary officials, allow jurisdictions to receive federal funding if they do not thwart federal law, and give much-needed relief to victims of sanctuary policies. The Committee will continue its oversight into sanctuary jurisdictions that prioritize the comfort of illegal alien criminals over the safety of U.S. citizens.

The post California Sanctuary Cities Ignored 8,901 ICE Detainers and Released Violent Criminals, House Judiciary Report Finds appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

The Department of Justice issued grand jury subpoenas to election workers in Los Angeles to prove that noncitizens are on California’s voter rolls.

Senator Rips Trump’s ‘Insane’ Plan For Iran Escalation, As Pentagon Transport Planes Land In Israel

There are continuing signs that President Trump may be ready to pull the trigger on ordering another major attack against Iran, though the American public might be wondering what the endgame or ‘mission accomplished’ moment might be – which has remained undefined and elusive after seven full months.First, Israel’s national KAN News reported late Thursday that ten US Air Force transport planes arrived at airbases in southern Israel, part of a surge in Pentagon equipment transfers across the region. KAN said this is preparation for a “short, focused war with Iran” – with the aircraft likely stocked with air defense systems.Confirmation of the airlifts arriving in Israel came a day after The Wall Street Journal reported that “The U.S. military is sending an additional Patriot system to Israel from Texas to beef up its missile defenses in the country, according to flight-tracking data and two officials with knowledge of the movement.””U.S. forces in the region have been restocking their munitions, and bomber aircraft and jet fighters are preparing for strikes, some of the officials said,” the report indicated. “An additional aircraft-carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary unit are also poised to join an armada of roughly 20 other warships operating in the Middle East next month, although some ships could rotate out.”All of this build-up looks to be doing practically nothing to deter the Iranians from what are now daily attacks on internatonal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. There have been at least a half-dozen tanker attacks, mine hits, or incidents resulting in serious damage in the strait this week alone. And another Friday:IRAN CLAIMS OIL SUPERTANKER HIT MINE FRIDAY IN HOMRUZ: FARSNext, the US has reportedly been warning Gulf allies of a new round of strikes on Iran to come. They must brace themselves for the inevitable Iranian retaliation, which it seems the Pentagon is powerless to stop.Also, on Thursday top US admirals briefed the Commander-in-Chief on ‘options’ for a renewed war. This saw CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper at the White House, along with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine.Will US regional allies cooperate and sign on to whatever next escalation phase might come?Now would be a good time for Ankara and Riyadh to make clear that their airspace is not open for any US attack on Tehran. https://t.co/CV5OFauM1g— Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) October 29, 2026
But the meeting is said to have heavily focused on the status of the US Navy mission in the Strait of Hormuz, where record levels of wartime oil transit is making its way out. The admin might be content to keep this uneasy status quo sitution going, which has relied heavily on ‘dark’ transits and smaller ship-to-ship transfers under the ‘protection’ of the US Navy. The meeting also included the presence of Vice President JD Vance, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles – as reported in Axios.At a moment the Iranians have not backed off their conditions for ending the war, one influential diplomat says that there needs to be a longer ‘time out’ and that some kind of deal could be ‘very close’ (though we’ve heard all of this many times before). Per Axios:U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack told CNN on Thursday that the U.S. and Iran are “very close” to a deal to deescalate tensions.”I think we’re very close to finally getting to a place where we can say, ‘Let’s just have a timeout,'” he said. “We’re not going to have an overall solution immediately, but we can allow the region to find its own pace.”There’s of late been independent and local reporting of limited US attacks against the southern Iranian coast, reportedly against rocket launch and other Iranian ‘defensive’ sites – but little can be proven or conformed amid the fog of war and competing claims.The U.S. carried out a small wave of airstrikes against southern Iran last night, striking the naval base in Bandar-e-Jask and an anti-ship cruise missile launcher on Qeshm Island. Axios’ Barak Ravid reported that these were “self defence strikes”, but since deleted his post.… pic.twitter.com/hQDvJlG0oi— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) October 30, 2026
Another sign that things could soon rapidly escalate – likely after the midterm elections (at least according to Trump’s latest words) – is that Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy has late this week revealed he’s been briefed on the Trump administration’s plans to resume military operations after the November 3 vote in the US.Notably, he warned that the plan is “insane” as it “will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.” Murphy highlighted recent reports potential US strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure, in an effort to sow societal breakdown and collapse in the country, but did not elaborate with details.”The plan that they have developed will lead, in my view, to a prolonged escalation of this war that will be devastating for our security interests,” he added in his remarks, and further warned of American service members being put at risk.Trump is reportedly planning to restart war with Iran after the election.Some of us have been briefed on the war plan. And while I cannot disclose any details, I can say this: the plan is insane. It will not achieve objectives and will set off a new cycle of escalation. pic.twitter.com/adWJfHVIok— Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT) October 29, 2026
The Senator further hit out at the White House for lack of Congressional authorization for the war. “Every first year law student could tell you that this war is illegal” in the domestic sense, Murphy asserted. “But it is also clearly in contravention of international law and commitments that we have made to the rule of law to deliberately target civilians and to use the harm or potential harm of civilians as leverage in war.”This “cycle of escalation” – as he called it, has already been on display throughout the summer, given each new US military action has served to lead to each new round of escalation, also as America’s Gulf allies get pummeled with Iranian missiles and drones each time.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/30/2026 – 09:25

Welcome to Screencaps, “America’s Best Daily Column,” as named by the readers. Screencaps, which publishes seven-days-a-week, is a mix of sports, pop culture, and emails from sane readers from around the world. This column isn’t for the coastal elites. Give us a week to steal your heart. Our track record is pretty good. Let’s have some fun.It’s like shooting fish in a barrel right now for this column. I was telling Mrs. Screencaps this week that there are days of the year I don’t like to take off work because the content is just so good. Those days include the holidays and Halloween.Why wouldn’t I take off the holidays? 1. It’s my column. I don’t feel like it’s fair to SeanJo to tell him to work the holidays when I started this column. 2. The content is always great. July 4? Are you kidding me? The content is off the charts. Christmas? Instagram models dump out all sorts of content. New Years? Having to work in the morning tends to prevent me from going to nuts the night before. Thanksgiving morning is one of the easiest editions of Screencaps to produce. People are in a good mood. They want to show me what they’re cooking.CARMEN ELECTRA OFFICIALLY KICKS OFF HALLOWEEN SEASON AT A GAS STATION, POSTGAME POLICE CHASE & BALL-SACAnd they’re dialed into the content because they’re not at work.As for Halloween, I literally get paid to report on Halloween costumes. After being told this week by some idiot emailer that I should retire, my resolve is stronger than ever. No, I won’t retire. I built this column into the greatest job on the Internet. You’d have to yank it out of my cold dead hands.Thank you to retired tennis star Genie Bouchard for kicking off the weekend with a Brit Brit tribute. Well done.📩 Email: joe.kinsey@outkick.comSend photos, stories, tips, rants—whatever you’ve got.📰 Screencaps Page:👉 Read the latest Screencaps– Jayson asks: A buddy of mine writes a mailbag column for a website. He said that occasionally, he will get emails from “psychos” who flip on him for not reading their questions. Have you ever received that kind of junk since starting Screencaps? If you do, do you answer them back, or simply ignore them?Kinsey: I’ve never had emailers turn heel because I wouldn’t publish their emails, but I’ve had guys who claimed to be fans and loyal readers who turned out to be total scumbags, especially after I left Busted Coverage and joined Clay Travis here at OutKick. There have been guys who felt like I should’ve given them freebies that brands used to send to me.As for a–hole emailers, I like when people write and snap on me. It’s great content. Typically, when I reply to their emails, the people disappear.WARREN SAPP GETS INTO CONFRONTATION WITH FLORIDA STATE FAN DURING TAILGATE, TIM MCGRAW’S BRONZER & DALE ARTA quick Google search reveals that Elizabethtown College was having revenue trouble in 2024 when the school cut 13 faculty members. You know what they didn’t cut? Women’s golf where members of the team are really killing it out on the links.• Legacy reader Jess in Alabama, who has been emailing longer than pretty much any other OutKick reader, says it’s just convenient: The guy who wrote in that only the elderly or disabled should get delivery groceries is forgetting the time in his life with babies. I can get off my lazy ass, but y’all don’t want to see that diaper blowout spill on the aisle next to your shoe or hear the tantrum that happens 1 out of 4 trips. I’ll let the grocery guy pick out a bag of potatoes or mustard or random stuff I grab off the shelf. Then I’ll find time to stock my own meat and fruit when I get a chance. And I am not complaining about my life. I’m very grateful. And very grateful not to ruin your pleasant experience at the grocery store.SUPERMARKET VOTED BEST GROCERY STORE IN AMERICA AS CUSTOMERS PRAISE MEAL KITS, VARIETY OF OFFERINGS• Louie in Savannah pushes back on Chris A.’s email: I have been following along with the grocery pick up debate the last few days and have to weigh in, especially after the comment about those that do it are lazy and park in the fire lane.We use it every week. We are quite able bodied, just busy as hell.BABY BOOMERS HATE 10 THINGS ABOUT TODAY’S GROCERY STORESMy wife is the “Food and Beverage Coordinator” in our home and we have been using the Kroger “Click list” just about every week since it became an option years ago. I imagine every store in different parts of the country have varying experiences but there are so many benefits for us to ordering online and picking it up. My wife just submitted ours and I’m picking it up on the way home from work tomorrow. I’ll be in the parking lot for no more that 15 minutes total. It’s very convenient and actually saves money. There is no impulse buying when you pick it up, only what you ordered. We also aren’t bringing our teen and pre-teen sons into the store who are suddenly starving (as always) and now want to throw everything they see into the cart and grab a sushi roll to devour while walking around. As an added bonus, once every two months or so, the store accidentally loads someone else’s partial order into the car and there is no way to tell until you get home. It is like a bonus mystery box. We always call to let them know but they always say to keep the items.Sure, there are issues with produce or other things sometimes but the customer service personnel are always nice and they will throw a $20 coupon into the next order for the inconvenience. Also, beer and wine purchases are allowed as well so that is one fewer stop while running errands.With as busy as we are in my house with jobs, school and sports, grocery pick up saves a ton of time!Everywhere is different I am sure but it’s a huge benefit for our house.• Voiceover Mike writes: To be honest, my wife will put in a weekly Target order, something of a holdover from Covid days, and I’m usually the one on pick-up duty. Do I feel a little emasculated, sitting next to soccer moms in their SUVs and Teslas waiting for their orders? Maybe a little. Will I let the Target order picker select produce for me? Nope. I hit the grocery store for that.If it were my choice, I’d wander the aisles, list in hand, and pick everything myself, but I’ve been relegated to pick-up duty. Keep up the great work, and never underestimate the importance of what you do for us.• Tom T. is fired up: Nice fall weather hare in VA. It’s a good day to shake my old man fist at the clouds.Chris A. really nailed it! Get off your lazy butt and go get your own damn groceries! Also, if you are under 40 and would like to one day own a home, get off your lazy butt and go get your own damn groceries, and then COOK your own damn food. I just do not get the allure of Door Dash, unless you have been drinking beer all day, because nobody should be drinking and driving in this day and age. Also, make your own damn coffee in the morning.I also LOVE the entitled losers who park in the fire lane while their spouse “runs” into the grocery store “for one thing”. I always give ‘em the hairy eyeball as I walk into the grocery store.• Bob in Cincy says: Our strategy for groceries is to leverage the Kroger pickup for staples such as canned good, frozen items and the like.  No veggies or fruits.  For those we go to Dorthy Lane or Fresh Thyme which are more expensive in general.  The online shopping is convenient I’ll admit, and less expensive than DL or FT.  It works well for us.• Joe in E. Tennessee checks in: What am I going to do with the twenty or so chip clips that are currently keeping my cereal fresh!?!? I’ll run out of room on my refrigerator!!!Kinsey: The Big Chip Clip lobbyists will not stand for these resealable bags. Just wait. Congress will intervene.ZERO BS. JUST DAKICH. TAKE THE DON’T @ ME PODCAST ON THE ROAD. DOWNLOAD NOW!• Darren in NE ATL shares: Had almost forgotten a fall golf memory. Late fall in the 90’s, with my dad, north of Dover, DE. Probably low 40’s. Pushed a drive near a lake into clumped grass. Got there and a slow moving, big ass snake was right at my ball. Seeing as my one true phobia is snakes, I took a stroke penalty for a lost ball, and ran the he’ll away.################SIGN UP FOR THE DAILY OUTKICK NEWSLETTERThat is it this morning. What a morning it has been. Mrs. Screencaps, whose birthday is Sunday, has been sick on and off all week and she’s dealing with a sore back. It takes a village around here, that’s for sure. But, we made it through another week of life.Let’s go have a great Halloween, if you celebrate. I have one more morning to go. Tomorrow morning will be 13 straight editions of Screencaps before I get to turn off the alarm Sunday morning. Let’s finish strong.

A Trump-appointed judge was ordered to undergo a psychiatric examination as part of an ongoing judicial misconduct investigation after she called a Latino attorney a “white savior” who was intimidated by “Black excellence” due to his “White mediocrity” during a hearing.U.S. District Judge Ada Brown of the Northern District of Texas, who is Black and Native American, was temporarily removed from her docket by the Fifth Circuit Judicial Council earlier this month, following a May judicial-conduct complaint filed by attorney Ezra Young, whose permission to practice before Brown had previously been revoked.The complaint centered on Brown’s rhetoric toward Young during his appearance for a show-case hearing, in which he was facing sanctions over allegations from Brown that he shared sealed court filings online. Young represented a Black law professor who sued Southern Methodist University, alleging she was denied tenure because of discrimination. He joined the case in 2022 and appeared before Brown before the judge barred him from practicing in her courtroom.OBAMA-APPOINTED JUDGE TORCHES TRUMP ADMIN IN LATEST COURTROOM SHOWDOWN, REFERS ATTORNEY FOR BAR REVIEWDuring the April hearing, Brown railed against Young, accusing him of “bullying” the black attorneys on the case.”You’re the White savior, come to save all the stupid Black lawyers in Texas who need your help, from New York,” Brown later said, according to the transcript obtained by Bloomberg.Brown repeatedly brought attention to Young’s skin color, calling him “white presenting” and “fair skinned” after Brown told her that he was a Latino.”I think what’s happening here, quite candidly, is you are very intimidated for some reason, Mr. Young, with Black excellence, in light of your White mediocrity. Yeah. Right?,” Brown said. “You should write that down. I mean, you — I’m — you look like a White man, right?”She also called Young a “Chad” which she said is the male version of “Karen.””It’s someone who calls the manager when they don’t get their way. They stomp their foot when the rules are supposed to apply to them, right?” Brown said.OBAMA-APPOINTED JUDGE WITH TIES TO ANTI-TRUMP CONSPIRACY THEORY HIT WITH MISCONDUCT COMPLAINTBrown also accused Young of sensationalizing the case after reading a news article that quoted his brief and referenced another law professor’s comparison of the Black professor’s treatment in the tenure dispute to a “lynching.””And so when I read a headline — a sensationalized, very racialized headline that says, ‘it’s like I’ve been lynched,’ and it’s literally got no connection to this case, I have to ask you, Mr. Social Media, Main Character Chad, White Hero, Savior, Loves to Help Black People Be An Ally, where the lynching in this case came from?” Brown said.The release of the April court hearing transcripts come as Brown shared with lawyers, judges and several media outlets via email of Young’s complaint and her response.Meanwhile, in a July 28 filing responding to Young’s complaint, Brown stood by her conduct.”I do not believe my demeanor was inappropriate at any time, especially during the candid conversations about race,” Brown wrote.”I take to heart the lessons I have learned from this experience and I ask the Chief Judge to weigh this candor, as well as my commitment to being mentored by senior judges with more experience in such situations when determining an appropriate disposition,” Brown wrote. “I realize the importance of public confidence in the judiciary and take to heart my role in fostering the public’s faith in it.”President Donald Trump appointed Brown to the federal court in Texas in March 2019. She is the first Black woman to serve in that court.