Clark Howard

Artificial intelligence is everywhere. Governments, corporations, and venture funds are pouring capital into AI infrastructure, models, compute capacity, and algorithms. The excitement is palpable; the technology feels transformative, and many investors believe that getting in early could lead to outsized gains.

But that logic has a big caveat: You don’t invest in “AI” itself — you invest in companies, and history suggests that, even when a technology revolution is obvious, picking the winners is extremely difficult.

Let’s dig into why investing in AI is tempting, how history warns us, and what “smarter” AI investing might look like.

The AI Story in 2025: Big Bets, Big Risks, Big Hype

Let’s ground this in what’s happening now:

• Tech companies are spending heavily. Microsoft has committed about $80 billion to AI and data-center expansion in 2025. Meta is also boosting capital expenditures to scale AI infrastructure.
• Nvidia is the current poster child. Its GPUs are central to training large AI models, and the company continues to see surging demand.
• AI spending is accelerating across the board. In 2025, the largest tech firms (Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon) plan to invest $300 billion+ in AI and related infrastructure.

So yes, there’s enormous capital flowing into AI, and some companies (like Nvidia) look like they’re already benefiting. But this is exactly where history tells us caution is needed.

Historical Case Studies: When Breakthrough Tech Doesn’t Mean Big Profits for All

Below are sharper, more specific examples to illustrate how technology revolutions often destroy value for many investors, even as they reshape entire industries.

The Early Automobile Boom

• In the first two decades of the 20th century, hundreds of automobile makers sprang up in the United States. By some counts, as many as 1,800 different car manufacturers were attempted at various times.
• Yet, by mid-century, nearly all of them vanished. Only a few — like Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler — survived long-term.
• Many entrepreneurs who saw the car as the future lost money because they underestimated scale, cost control, supply chains, distribution, and competition.

Warren Buffett has used this example to emphasize how easy it is to back “the wrong horse” in a transformative technology. The auto revolution succeeded — but most car companies didn’t.

Airlines: Transformative, but Treacherous for Investors

• Air travel redefined how people and goods move globally. But the airline industry has a long, brutal history of bankruptcies and shakeouts.
• Post-deregulation (circa 1978), over 160 U.S. airlines went bankrupt or shut down by the turn of the century.
• Even iconic names like Pan American World Airways (Pan Am) and TWA (Trans World Airlines) disappeared entirely.

As Buffett quipped, if you want to become a millionaire, you should start with a billion and buy an airline — because the risk is so high.

So, while airlines were historically game-changers, they were very unstable investments.

Railroads: The Infrastructure Bet That Burned Many

• In the mid-to-late 19th century, railroads were regarded as the backbone of modernization and expansion.
• Investors funneled capital into railroad companies, often speculating on which routes or lines would survive.
• But many railroad companies went bankrupt as competition, overbuilding, rate wars, and economic cycles hammered them. Nearly a third of U.S. railroads went under in the 1890s.
• Eventually, consolidation left a few surviving networks — but most initial speculators lost.

The lesson: Building the technology infrastructure (rails) was essential for growth, but few original investors captured steady profits.

The Dot-Com Bubble

• In the late 1990s, the internet was the clear next wave. Everyone wanted exposure to “internet stocks.”
• Dot-com names like Pets.com, Webvan, and eToys raised massive sums — then collapsed.
• The Nasdaq composite dropped by ~80% between 2000 and 2002.
• Even Amazon, which became one of the biggest success stories of all time, saw its stock fall over 90% from peak to trough during that crash. Many early investors didn’t survive or exited with big losses.

In short: The internet revolution succeeded, but most early bets failed — and the winners weren’t obvious in advance.

Why AI Might Be a Rerun — and Why Picking Winners Is So Hard

Putting the history and current AI landscape together, here are the big challenges:

• The infrastructure vs. application bet. Do you invest in chips, data centers, cloud platforms, software, vertical AI firms (healthcare, fintech, etc.)? History suggests that just owning “infrastructure” doesn’t guarantee long-term dominance.
• Rapid disruption. The pace of innovation is so fast that today’s leaders can become obsolete quickly.
• Margin pressures. AI operations involve heavy capital costs (hardware, cooling, power) that can compress margins.
• Competition and fragmentation. In many AI niches (e.g., agents, model serving, domain-specific AI), numerous small players will compete, with many ultimately failing.
• Crowded valuation risk. If the market expects too much, valuations can overshoot fundamentals — and reversals can be painful.

In short: The technology almost surely wins, but the companies that win are far from obvious.

Smarter Ways To Invest in AI

Here’s how to get exposure to AI’s upside — but in a way that avoids “bet the ranch” risk:

• Own the market. If you hold an S&P 500 index fund (or equivalent), you already own many of the potential AI winners — including Nvidia. In fact, Nvidia currently makes up over 7% of the S&P 500 — making it the single largest component by index weight. That means if Nvidia becomes the AI “hero,” your fund participates — without having to pick it.
• Diversify across sectors. Don’t over-concentrate in tech. AI will touch healthcare, manufacturing, logistics, finance, and even energy. A well-rounded portfolio helps you capture gains from multiple fronts.
• Avoid speculation. Resist the urge to chase small, hyped AI startups or “moonshot” stocks unless you’re comfortable with the risk of total loss. Many will fail.
• Stay patient and long-term minded. Big technological revolutions take decades to play out. Short-term volatility is guaranteed. The advantage goes to long-term holders.
• Tilt but don’t gamble. If you believe in AI, it’s reasonable to tilt your portfolio modestly toward companies with strong AI exposure. But avoid making it your entire bet.

Final Thought

Investing in AI seems like a compelling opportunity. There will almost certainly be major winners, and the economic shift may be massive. But knowing which companies will become those winners is tremendously difficult.

History is full of technological revolutions (automobiles, air travel, railroads, the internet) that changed everything — yet most of the companies that claimed “this is the future” failed. Even massively disruptive technologies don’t make every investor rich.

If you want exposure to AI’s upside without taking on extreme risk, you’re better off holding a broadly diversified portfolio (for example, via the S&P 500) — where you automatically own Nvidia, along with many other potential winners. Let the market decide which companies rise, while you stay anchored to sound investing principles.

The post Is Trying To Invest in AI a Good Idea? appeared first on Clark Howard.

The numbers are staggering. The S&P 500 has set 28 new closing highs in 2025 so far, and many investors are feeling that familiar itch. After watching their portfolios soar to record levels, a voice in their head whispers: “This can’t keep going. What goes up must come down. It’s time to get out.”

If you’ve felt this way recently, you’re experiencing what psychologists call “peak aversion” — the deeply human belief that extraordinary success must be followed by extraordinary failure. It feels prudent, even contrarian. You’ll look like a genius when the inevitable crash comes.

But here’s the problem: before you even click “sell,” you need to answer the most important question that most market timers never consider: At what point will you get back in?

The Decision That Dooms You Before You Start

If you’re thinking about selling at all-time highs without having a firm re-entry point, you’ve probably already lost. This isn’t about being smart enough to time the top — it’s about being smart enough twice: timing the exit AND the re-entry.

So let’s be honest: what’s your number? If you don’t have one, you’re not a market timer — you’re just someone fleeing to cash with no plan to return.

Are you waiting for a 5% dip? That happens multiple times most years. A 10% correction? Those occur on average every 1.2 years since 1980, and the S&P 500 has spent more than a third of the time since 1927 trading 10% or more below a recent high.

Most investors bailing out at highs aren’t thinking small. You’re probably looking for something that feels meaningful — 20%, 30%, or even the kind of dramatic declines we saw in 2008 or during the March 2020 crash.

But here’s where the psychology gets vicious: even if you’ve picked a number, the market will torture you with scenarios that make sticking to your plan nearly impossible.

Scenario One: The Market Never Crashes — All-Time Highs Are Not Sell Signals

This is the scenario that breaks market timers before they even begin: You sell expecting a crash, and the market just keeps rising to more all-time highs.

Here’s what most investors don’t understand: All-time highs are not warning signals — they’re the market’s normal state. The market is designed to grow over time, which means it’s constantly on a path toward new records.

Consider this: The Dow Jones currently sits around 46,500. Twenty years ago, in 2005, it was hovering around 10,500. That’s more than a fourfold increase, representing thousands of “all-time highs” along the way. Each of those record-setting days looked exactly like today — scary to nervous investors, but perfectly normal for a growing economy.

The data is overwhelming: Since 1950, all-time highs occur about 7% of all trading days, or roughly one new high every 14 trading days. Put another way, since 1926, 31% of all months have included at least one all-time high.

Real Example — 2012-2014: During this three-year stretch, the market gained 16%, 32%, and 13% respectively, while setting 88 all-time highs across those years. Many investors expected a correction after such strong performance and multiple record highs. The crash never came. An investor who sold in 2012, expecting the market to “come back down to earth,” would have missed those consecutive years of strong gains. The market is up almost 300% since then.

The psychological torture is brutal: If you thought the market was “too high” when you sold, how can you possibly buy back in after it’s gone up another 25%? Your brain rebels against buying something that’s now even more “expensive” than when you thought it was overvalued.

But here’s the crucial insight: Returns are actually better when you invest at all-time highs. 12-month returns following an all-time high have been better than at other times, with a 10.4% lead over inflation, compared to 8.8% when the market wasn’t at a high.

Why? Because all-time highs often signal continued strength, not imminent doom. The market hitting new records is evidence of a healthy, growing economy doing exactly what it’s supposed to do.

Scenario Two: The 10% Tease That Never Becomes 20%

Let’s say you’ve decided that 20% is your re-entry point. This seems reasonable — it’s the traditional definition of a bear market, and surely any decline that large represents a real buying opportunity.

Here’s what actually happens: The market drops 12%. You’re feeling vindicated. Then 15%. You’re getting excited — you were right! But now you face your first psychological trap: Do you get back in at 15% down, or wait for your full 20%?

Real Example — 2018: The S&P 500 set multiple all-time highs throughout 2018. From its peak in September 2018 to its December 2018 low, the market fell about 19.8% — just missing that 20% bear market threshold by 0.2%. An investor waiting for a “real” 20% decline would have watched the market bottom at 19.8% and then surge 28% in 2019. They never got their 20% entry point, and they missed the entire recovery.

This is the most common way market timing fails: The correction you’re waiting for either never comes or stops just short of your target. Since looking out just one year from each all-time high in the S&P 500, market corrections greater than 10% have occurred only 9% of the time. Most market timers spend their time waiting for events that simply don’t happen.

Scenario Three: You Actually Timed The Big One, But Were Still Wrong

But let’s say lightning strikes and you actually get it right. You manage to time one of the rare, genuine market crashes. Surely that vindicates the strategy?

Not even close. Even perfect timing creates an impossible psychological trap.

Real Example — The 2008 Financial Crisis: You sold at the peak in October 2007. The market started falling, and by March 2008, it was down about 20%. Time to buy back in? Hardly. Banks were failing, Bear Stearns had collapsed, and everyone was talking about whether this was the next Great Depression. Would you really have been buying when it seemed like the entire financial system might collapse?

Even if you had superhuman courage and bought at 20% down, you would have watched your “smart” purchase lose another 37% as the market eventually fell 57% from peak to trough. Suddenly, your 20% re-entry target seems foolish. Maybe you should have waited for 30% down. Or 40%. Or 50%.

Real Example — The 2000 Dot-Com Crash: Same story, different year. You brilliantly sold at the March 2000 peak. By early 2001, the market was down 20%. But the headlines were screaming about the “New Economy” being a fraud, tech companies with no profits, and a recession looming. Would you have been buying?

If you did buy at 20% down, you would have endured another 29% decline as the market ultimately fell 49% from peak to trough over 2.5 years.

Here’s the cruel irony: Even when market timers are completely right about a crash, they still usually get it wrong. When you’re in the middle of a financial crisis, 20% down doesn’t feel like a buying opportunity — it feels like the beginning of the end. Your brain, already trained to fear disaster (which is why you sold in the first place), will convince you to wait for an even bigger decline.

And even if you’re disciplined enough to stick to your 20% target, watching your “smart” purchase lose another 30-40% will make you question whether your re-entry point should have been much lower. This is the psychological trap that destroys even successful market timers: There’s always a reason to wait for a bigger decline.

What To Do Instead of Selling Everything at Market Highs

Here are three smarter ways to ease your mind and lower risk without abandoning growth.

1. Use a Partial Hedge

You don’t need to make an “all or nothing” call. Shifting a small slice of your portfolio (say, 10–20%) into safer assets can provide psychological comfort and real downside protection. That could mean short-term Treasuries, high-yield savings, or even a bond ETF. This lets you lock in some gains and give yourself a cash cushion, without derailing long-term compounding.

2. Reallocate Toward Undervalued Areas

Markets don’t move in sync. When the S&P 500 is setting records, other sectors or regions may be lagging.

• U.S. sectors: If large-cap growth has soared, check whether small-cap, value, or international stocks are trading at better relative prices.
• Global exposure: Developed international markets and emerging markets often move on different cycles than the U.S.

Why it works: You’re still invested, but shifting from “expensive” areas to cheaper ones can smooth returns and reduce concentration risk.

3. Check If You’re Overweight in Stocks

A run-up in equities often leaves investors unintentionally more aggressive than they planned. If your goal was a 60/40 stock-bond mix and you’re now at 75/25, it’s time to rebalance.

The Bottom Line

The next time the market hits all-time highs and that voice whispers “get out,” remember: You’re not deciding whether to sell. You’re deciding whether to start an agonizing guessing game with no good answers.

The market reaches all-time highs because that’s what markets do. They climb a wall of worry, year after year, hitting new peaks along the way. Selling at those peaks isn’t contrarian wisdom—it’s fighting a long-term upward trend that has worked for over a century.

Stay the course. Stick to your plan. And let the market timers torture themselves with their re-entry decisions while you keep building wealth.

The post Why Selling at All Time Highs Is Usually a Bad Idea appeared first on Clark Howard.

Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days arrive on October 7th and 8th this year, marking an early start to holiday shopping. While these exclusive deals are only available to Amazon Prime members, you may be able to swing a free membership while also lowering your cell phone bill with Metro by T-Mobile. 

In this article, I’ll take a close look at Metro by T-Mobile’s top-tier plan, which includes a free Amazon Prime membership.

Unlimited Data + Prime From $35/Month With Metro by T-Mobile

Earlier this year, Metro by T-Mobile upgraded its plan lineup with lower prices and added perks. Most notably, Metro by T-Mobile’s best plan now includes an Amazon Prime membership.

At regular rates, the plan costs $60/month for one line with autopay. The same plan is available for $47.50/line with two lines or $43.33/line with three lines. With four lines, you can get this plan for $35 per month per line. Taxes and fees are included in the plan price. Plus, all Metro by T-Mobile plans come with a 5-year price guarantee.

Here’s what you’ll get with Metro by T-Mobile’s top-tier unlimited plan:

• Unlimited talk, text and 5G data (70GB high-speed)
• 25GB mobile hotspot data
• Unlimited international texting to 210+ countries/destinations
• Amazon Prime
• 100GB Google One membership
• HD video streaming
• T-Mobile Tuesdays
• Scam Shield

If you do decide to switch to Metro by T-Mobile, I recommend bringing your own phone to save the most money. First, check to see if your phone is unlocked. If it is, check its compatibility with Metro by T-Mobile’s network online.

The Benefits of Amazon Prime

In addition to the connectivity benefits you’ll get with Metro by T-Mobile’s top-tier unlimited plan, Amazon Prime adds a lot of extra value. On its own, a Prime membership costs $14.99/month or $139/year. With Metro by T-Mobile, you’ll get all the benefits of Amazon Prime without the extra payment. 

Even after the savings on the membership itself, you’ll be eligible for additional exclusive savings thanks to your Prime membership. Here are a few of the best benefits of Amazon Prime: 

• Free Delivery: Avoid shipping fees altogether on millions of items, including same-day, one-day and two-day delivery in eligible areas. 
• Prime Day/Big Deal Days: Get exclusive access to Prime-only discounts during events in July and October, as well as everyday deals on thousands of items. 
• Grubhub+: Avoid food delivery fees, access exclusive savings and more with a free Grubhub+ membership. 
• Prime Video: Stream movies, shows, documentaries and live sports with exclusive behind-the-scenes X-Ray access. 
• Amazon Music: Stream music and top podcasts ad-free with Amazon Music. Prime members are also eligible for a discount on Amazon Music Unlimited.
• Prime Gaming: Play free games and get a free monthly Twitch subscription.
• Amazon Photos: Store unlimited full-resolution photos and up to 5GB of videos free.

You can check out our full list of Prime benefits and determine whether it could help you save in our detailed analysis, Is Amazon Prime Worth It?

If any of these benefits could help you save money, you can access them without paying for an Amazon Prime membership by switching to Metro by T-Mobile. Choose the top-tier unlimited plan for $60/month (or as low as $35/line with four lines) to get unlimited data and Amazon Prime. 

To learn more before you decide to make the switch, read our Metro by T-Mobile review here. If you decide to make the switch, check out this guide that Team Clark put together to take you step-by-step through the process of changing carriers. 

Are you thinking about switching to Metro by T-Mobile to get a free Amazon Prime membership? Let us know in our Clark.com Community!

The post Get a Free Amazon Prime Membership With Metro by T-Mobile appeared first on Clark Howard.

US Mobile is offering a limited-time new-customer promotion with up to $540 in savings. The promotion includes two free annual plans with the purchase of an annual Unlimited Starter or Unlimited Premium plan. That’s three lines for the price of one the first year!

In this article, I’ll take a closer look at US Mobile’s latest new customer offer. I’ll include what you’ll get for the price, and how the plans compare to other annual unlimited options. 

Get Three Unlimited US Mobile Lines From $22.50/Month

Now through October 14, US Mobile (Team Clark’s Review) is offering a “buy one, get two free” deal on annual unlimited plans. To get this deal, you’ll have to port in all three lines on the Dark Star network.

Here’s how it works: Purchase an annual unlimited plan, get two additional lines on the next-best annual unlimited plan free. Use the promo code B1G2 to get this deal.

• Buy Annual Unlimited Premium, Get Two Annual Unlimited Starter Plans Free: With this option, you can buy the annual Unlimited Premium plan at its full rate ($32.50/month; $390 upfront). Then, you can activate two additional lines on the annual Unlimited Starter plan for free. At regular rates, the annual Unlimited Starter plan costs $22.50/month ($270 upfront), which means you’ll save $540 with this deal!
• Buy Annual Unlimited Starter, Get Two Annual Unlimited Flex Plans Free: Alternatively, you can buy the annual Unlimited starter plan at its full rate ($22.50/month; $270 upfront). Then you can activate two additional lines on the annual Unlimited Flex plan for free. At regular rates, the annual Unlimited Flex plan costs $17.50/month ($210 upfront), which means you’ll save $420 with this option!

To get this deal, join US Mobile by October 14. Again, each must be a port-in (keep your existing number), and each line must be activated on the Dark Star network. 

In the table below, you can see a more detailed breakdown of what you’ll get with an unlimited annual plan on US Mobile’s Dark Star network. 

	Unlimited Flex	Unlimited Starter	Unlimited Premium
Annual Price	$210 ($17.50/month)	$270 ($22.50/month)	$390 ($32.50/month)
Premium Data	10GB	Unlimited	Unlimited
Hotspot Data	5GB	20GB	100GB high-speed 100GB at 8 Mbps unlimited at 600 Kbps
International	Calling & Texting Included	Calling & Texting Included Up to 1GB Roaming Data	Calling & Texting Included Up to 20GB Roaming Data

To learn more about US Mobile’s latest deal, visit the company’s website here. 

More Ways to Save on US Mobile Plans

In addition to the annual unlimited plan discount, US Mobile also offers other ways for new customers to save. If you’re thinking about switching to US Mobile, choose the new customer offer that makes the most sense for you: 

• Monthly Unlimited Premium for $35: If you don’t want to prepay for a year of service, you can grab the monthly Unlimited Premium plan for $35/month for the first 12 months with promo code FULLSPEED. A $9 discount will apply each month as long as your line remains active on the Dark Star network.
• 30-Day Free Trial: New customers are eligible for a 30-day free trial on US Mobile’s Unlimited Starter plan. You can activate the free trial on the Dark Star or Warp network. To learn more, you can read about my recent experience with US Mobile’s 30-day free trial here.

US Mobile: An Affordable Cell Phone Service Provider on Any Network

If you aren’t familiar with US Mobile, it’s an MVNO (mobile virtual network operator) that partners with all three major networks to provide service to its customers. You can learn more about US Mobile’s different networks here.

US Mobile offers one of the cheapest overall phone plans at $96/year ($8/month) for unlimited talk, text and 2GB of high-speed data. Annual plans begin at $17.50/month ($210 upfront) when you prepay for a year of service. However, with the current new customer offer, you can buy one annual plan and get two additional lines free for the first year on the Dark Star network. This is a great deal for three lines compared to other cheap unlimited plans.

To see how US Mobile’s annual unlimited plans compare, I looked at annual unlimited plans from some of our other favorite affordable providers:

• Visible (Team Clark’s Review): Annual unlimited plans begin at $275 ($23/month) with download speeds up to 143 Mbps. Visible+ and Visible+ Pro offer download speeds up to 634 Mbps on Verizon’s 5G Ultra Wideband network. These plans cost $375 ($31.25/month) and $450 ($37.50/month), respectively. However, for a limited time, new customers can get six months of Visible+ Pro for 50% off. Customers on the Visible+ and Visible+ Pro plans are also eligible for a $5/month discount when part of an Inner Circle.
• Mint Mobile (Team Clark’s Review): The annual unlimited plan costs $360 ($30/month). This plan provides download speeds up to 357 Mbps on T-Mobile’s network. It also includes 10GB of mobile hotspot.
• Ultra Mobile (Team Clark’s Review): Ultra Unlimited is available annually for $408 ($34/month). This plan doesn’t have a high-speed data cap, and it includes 10GB of high-speed mobile hotspot. Like Mint Mobile, Ultra Mobile’s plans also provide download speeds up to 357 Mbps on T-Mobile’s network.

As you can see, you’ll get excellent value with US Mobile’s annual unlimited plans. This is especially true if you take advantage of the free second and third line offer available now.

If you’re thinking about switching to US Mobile, bring your own unlocked phone to save the most money. You can also check your coverage on all three networks to see which one will provide the best service. However, the current promotions are only available if each line ports in on the Dark Star network.

To learn more about US Mobile before deciding to make the switch, be sure to read our full US Mobile review. 

For more options, check out all of our top picks for the best cell phone plans and deals available now. If you do decide to switch to a new cell phone service provider, check out this guide that Team Clark put together. It will take you step-by-step through the process of changing carriers.

Are you thinking about switching to US Mobile? Let us know in our Clark.com Community!

The post US Mobile Deal: Buy One Annual Unlimited Plan, Get Two Free appeared first on Clark Howard.