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The Dow was up about 1,000 points, or 2.2%, early Monday after President Trump gave markets a reason to hope for a de-escalation of the Iran conflict.

Gold’s steep pullback of late looks like a warning sign, but the broader picture hasn’t changed much.In fact, according to Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, a massive long-term tailwind is hiding in plain sight, linked to the ballooning U.S. national debt.Of late, we’ve seen the shiny yellow metal under pressure from rising Treasury yields, which are impacting rate-cut expectations. That ongoing pressure intensified after the Fed left rates unchanged on March 18, 2026, reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate-market view. Consequently, as per The Wall Street Journal, gold logged its largest one-week dollar decline since 1975. As per Reuters reporting, spot gold traded at $4,860.21 on March 18, 2026, and has now slid to $4,406.78 at the time of writing, dropping nearly 9.3% in less than a week.On top of that, the growing tensions with Iran sent energy markets into a frenzy, fueling fresh inflationary concerns, further weighing down gold’s ascent.Speaking of the U.S. debt pile, it’s now at a mind-boggling $39 trillion, as per the Treasury’s latest “Debt to the Penny” data.Additionally, it now costs roughly $520 billion to maintain that lofty debt load, which is equal to nearly 17% of federal spending so far this year. As we look ahead, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts a whopping $1.9 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, with public debt skyrocketing to nearly 101% of GDP this yearConsequently, Hansen feels the long-term setup still favors gold. U.S. deficits continue to widen from critical levels, and debt sustainability risks are at record highs, compelling investors to turn to gold after the recent bout of profit-taking.

A sharp move in gold is raising questions about what comes next for pricesPhoto by FRAME STUDIO on Getty Images

Gold and Silver Returns by Time PeriodToday: Gold -231.18 (-5.06%) vs. Silver -4.34 (-6.24%).30 days: Gold -633.91 (-12.18%) vs. Silver -17.31 (-19.94%).6 months: Gold +837.30 (+22.4%) vs. Silver +25.56 (+58.17%).1 year: Gold +1,563.06 (+51.95%) vs. Silver +36.53 (+110.85%).5 years: Gold +2,845.06 (+164.74%) vs. Silver +44.44 (+177.40%).20 years: Gold +4,015.97 (+722.21%) vs. Silver +58.78 (+548.52%).
Source: Goldprice.org 
Who is Ole Hansen?For context, Hansen isn’t your run-of-the-mill precious metals analyst.Related: Silver price today: This warning is bigger than most thinkHe joined Saxo Bank in 2008 and became head of commodity strategy a couple of years later, having spent 20 years in London markets before joining the firm. He has established his position as a veteran commodities watcher, known for covering gold, oil, and macro trends, and making prescient calls that media outlets frequently citeAlso, it’s worth noting that Saxo is a regulated Danish bank with over 1.5 million clients and handles over EUR 115 billion in client assets globally.Why is gold falling anyway?Gold should be a much stronger safe-haven trade at this point, but instead we’re seeing markets treat it as more of an inflation-and-rates story first, putting near-term pressure on bullion. That said, here are three of the main factors behind gold’s decline.The Iran war is lifting energy prices: Reuters reported that Brent traded at $111.90 (up 55% for the month) and U.S. crude at $98.35 on March 23, stoking inflationary fears.Inflation remains sticky: Speaking about inflation, the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge jumped 2.8% year-over-year in January, while core PCE and monthly core PCE rose  3.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Also, February PPI came in hot at 0.7% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year.Higher inflation usually means higher-for-longer rates: As per Reuters, U.S. Treasury yields jumped to eight-month highs, while the dollar index shot up to 99.53, with markets pricing in fewer Fed cuts. That hurts non-yielding gold as the dollar starts to win the safe-haven trade.What’s the link between U.S. debt and gold prices?The relationship between the shiny yellow metal and U.S. finances essentially boils down to trust and stability. Put simply, a fiscal deficit is the amount the government overspends in a particular year, while the national debt is the total of those deficits over time.More Gold:Gold just saw its biggest decline since 1983: what’s nextGold and silver bugs face grim reality checkGold’s price is falling fast: Here’s what comes nextTaking the analogy of a credit card, a deficit is what we add to the bill each year, while the debt is the total balance owed.So when deficits remain elevated, debt continues to rise, which makes investors very uneasy about long-term economic stability. That’s exactly where gold comes in.Gold is often deemed a safe-haven metal, and once we see confidence break down in the U.S. government’s finances, investors tend to shift their assets away from a country’s balance sheet. Hence, when debt levels climb and deficits widen, demand for gold tends to rise, supporting prices over the long term.Top Gold ETF Returns vs. the S&P 500Year to date: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +4.31% vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) -4.63%.2025: GLD +63.68% vs. SPY +17.72%.2024: GLD +26.66% vs. SPY +24.89%.2023: GLD +12.69% vs. SPY +26.18%.2022: GLD -0.77% vs. SPY -18.18%.2021: GLD -4.15% vs. SPY +28.73%.2020: GLD +24.81% vs. SPY +18.33%.
Source: Total Real Returns (data for GLD and SPY, with dividends reinvested; YTD figures are through March 20, 2026). 
Why Hansen sees gold’s long-term case still intactHansen argues that investors should block out short-term noise and focus on the bigger forces driving gold. Related: Elon Musk’s Terafab bet: what it means for Tesla investorsRising yields and shifting rate expectations have weighed down gold in recent weeks.However, he argues that these are temporary headwinds linked with inflation shocks and central bank uncertainty. Perhaps the deeper story is the U.S. fiscal picture, which continues to worsen as the Iran war drags on.Hansen argues that this worrying macro picture then compels investors to seek protection against the massive “debt sustainability risks” as we continue to see deterioration in the U.S.’s balance sheet.The macroeconomic backdrop has become even more complex.Sluggish growth, persistent inflation, and ballooning government debt are beginning to resemble a stagflationary setup. That setup usually favors gold historically.Hence, despite the market’s fixation on yields and rate cuts, Hansen believes gold’s real driver hasn’t been priced in yet. Wall Street’s gold targets for 2026Wall Street remains broadly bullish on gold heading into the year-end.The latest targets on the king metal sit well above the $4,406.78spot price at the time of writing, with multiple firms still pointing to $6,000 or more for the year.JP Morgan: $6,300, implying about 43.0% upside versus $4,406.78.UBS: $6,200, implying about 40.7% upside versus $4,406.78.Wells Fargo: $6,100-$6,300, implying about 38.4%-43% upside versus $4,406.78.Deutsche Bank: $6,000, implying about 36.2% upside versus $4,406.78.Goldman Sachs: $5,400, implying about 22.5% upside versus $4,406.78.BNP Paribas: $5,620 average for 2026, implying about 27.5% upside versus $4,406.78.
Sources: Reuters, Investing.
Investor takeaway on goldClearly, Gold needs some things to go for it before it can move higher.First up, Treasury yields need to ease, as that makes non-yielding assets such as gold less attractive. Moreover, buyers need to push the shiny metal back over recent trend levels, especially its 21-day average near $5,080 and the 50-day average around $4,980. Once those critical levels are achieved, the recent selloff is losing control.On top of that, the current technical picture is still pointing to a ton of weakness. The RSI is at 35.66, which underscores heavy selling pressure, though it’s not at an extreme washout level.On the downside, the next critical levels may be the 100-day average near $4,555 and the 200-day average near $4,042. If gold drops through $4,555, that points to the correction deepening and potentially opening the door to $4,042.Of course, billionaire Ray Dalio’s case for gold being portfolio insurance still matters. Reuters reported him saying that,Related: JPMorgan resets S&P 500 price target for rest of 2026

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When one of the world’s greatest investors puts nearly $45 billion into a single stock, people pay attention.Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathawayowns 151.6 million shares of American Express,  a 22.1% stake that makes it the third-largest holding in the entire Berkshire portfolio at 14.7%. Only Apple at 18.5% is a larger bet.Valued at a market cap of $203 billion, American Express (AXP) stock is also part of the Dow Jones 30 index. Down 23% from its 52-week high, AXP stock currently offers you a dividend yield of 1.1%. Is Buffett’s favorite financial stock now trading at a bargain?What American Express does American Express isn’t a typical bank. It runs what’s called a “closed-loop” network, meaning it serves as the card issuer, merchant acquirer, and payment processor all at once. That’s a very different model than Visa or Mastercard, which rely on banks to issue their cards.

American Express continues to expand its membership base in 2025Shutterstock-RYO Alexandre

Founded in 1850 and headquartered in New York, American Express operates across four segments: U.S. Consumer Services, Commercial Services, International Card Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. It serves consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations worldwide.The real engine of its business model is its premium customer base. These aren’t people who are stretching to pay their bills. American Express CFO Christophe Le Caillec recently told attendees at a UBS Financial Services Conference that the company’s delinquency rate has averaged just 1.37% over the past eight quarters. In this period, the delinquency rate also dipped to 1.2%. Put simply, Amex customers spend more, pay their bills, and tend to keep their cards.A growing dividend for AXP stockAccording to data from Fiscal.ai, American Express has raised its annual dividend to $3.28 per share in 2026, up from $0.30 per share in 1996. Over the last 30 years, its annual dividend has grown at an 8.2% rate, which is exceptional for a company in the cyclical lending sector. More Dividend Stocks:One of Warren Buffett’s dividend stocks is key to reopening Strait of HormuzHSBC drops blunt verdict on 150-year-old dividend stockDividend-paying restaurant stock stumbles as gas prices surgeNotably, while several large banks were forced to cut or suspend dividends during the Great Financial Crisis, AXP maintained an annual payout of $0.72 per share. Key dividend metrics for AXP stock Dividend yield: ~1.1% (at ~$295 share price)Annual dividend per share: ~$3.285-year dividend growth rate: ~14% annuallyConsecutive years of dividends paid: 30+Return on equity: 36%American Express retains the vast majority of its earnings. That gives it the flexibility to keep growing the dividend, buy back stock, or make an acquisition: all of which it is actively doing.Buffett is bullish on AXP stockBerkshire’s AXP stake is valued at $45 billion, which indicates it is not a passive bet but a conviction call. And the fundamentals back it up.Card fee revenue has grown at a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since 2018. The company just refreshed its Platinum Card, its largest and most premium product. Within the first few months after launch, Platinum demand was strong enough to shift the entire mix of new card acquisitions toward higher-fee accounts. The average fee paid per new account jumped noticeably in the fourth quarter of 2025.Travel bookings through the Amex app were up 30% year-over-year in Q4. Spending at Resy restaurants, the dining reservation platform Amex owns, rose 20%. Those are engagement numbers, not just acquisition numbers. They suggest card members aren’t just signing up; they’re using the product deeply.Related: Warren Buffett makes a stunning move with his Berkshire stakeInternational growth is another tailwind. In markets outside the U.S., Gen Z and millennial card member enrollment grew 20% in the fourth quarter. Amex currently holds only about 6% market share across major international markets and isn’t yet at coverage parity with the U.S. That’s a long runway.Is AXP stock undervalued after the pullback?Analysts tracking the blue-chip dividend stock forecast that adjusted earnings per share will expand from $15.38 in 2025 to $24.30 in 2029. If AXP stock is priced at 16.4x forward earnings, which is similar to its 10-year average, it should gain 40% within the next three years, after adjusting for dividend reinvestments. Given consensus price targets, the Warren Buffett dividend stock trades at a 28% discount to consensus estimates. Le Caillec acknowledged the stock’s valuation at the UBS conference but made a simple case: He expectsearnings per share growth in the 9% to 10% range for the coming year, with an eye on continuing to buy back shares.AXP is not cheap, but it’s also not priced like a company with a 36% return on equity, mid-teens earnings growth, and near-zero credit losses.The Platinum refresh tailwind hasn’t fully hit the income statement yet. The company began repricing its existing Platinum cardholder base in January 2026, and that repricing takes 12 months to work through. The full financial impact lands in the fourth quarter of 2026.For long-term dividend investors, a 23% pullback in a business with this kind of earnings quality, along with Buffett’s $44.8 billion endorsement, is at least worth a very close look.Related: Delta Air Lines made $8.2 billion from your credit card last year

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