Broadcast Retirement Network’s Jeffrey Snyder discusses how family members and caregivers can connect with loved one’s with dementia with University of Alabama Birmingham’s Andrew Duxbury, MD.Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement NetworkJoining me now is Dr. Andrew Duxbury at the University of Alabama, Birmingham. Doctor, so great to see you. Thanks for joining us this morning.It’s a pleasure to be here. I am so excited because dementia is prominent in our society. And I want to take a step back and ask, in terms of relating to people with dementia, I would imagine it’s pretty difficult for caregivers, for family members to have that interaction with a loved one that’s kind of going in and out of their memories.Andrew Duxbury, MD, University of Alabama BirminghamWell, the thing that I always try to teach families in regards to communicating with someone with dementia is that their reality is different than ours because their brain works differently than ours and reality is strictly what our brain tells us it is. Therefore, our worlds intersect, but they do not overlap. And therefore, the important thing is to try to figure out how to stay as much as possible at the intersect together as you can, but that when they’re in their part of their world that you cannot visit or you’re in our reality that they cannot visit, that it’s okay.And it’s just a matter of trying to come around to where the intersect is present again.Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement NetworkSo it’s really important to have those expectations going in. I would imagine, doctor, this is really hard for families because they’re so used to seeing their loved ones as they were, not as they are.Andrew Duxbury, MD, University of Alabama BirminghamThat is absolutely correct, that people develop long-term relationships with someone over many decades and they construct who that person is and how they will react. And when that person no longer fits that construct, it can cause a lot of friction and a lot of trying to push people back into the construct with which they are comfortable and familiar, even though that individual no longer fits and is not capable of inhabiting it.Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement NetworkSo we’re essentially meeting the patient where they are. How do we do that? I mean, how do we reframe it for ourselves?But what kind of strategies should we undertake? There are probably numerous Americans out there, numerous family members who are dealing with this. What’s the first step?Andrew Duxbury, MD, University of Alabama BirminghamWell, the first step is to understand that life has always changed and that the biggest problems happen when we try to remain static, that we try to hold people in one place or we try to hold life in one pattern or we try to force people into a life pattern that they constructed for themselves in the past that they no longer fit. We’re really good at understanding these changes in younger people. A five-year-old, a 10-year-old, a 15-year-old and a 20-year-old are all very different beings, even though they’re only five years apart from each other.But we’re really terrible about understanding that these same kinds of changes and these same different or these very large differences can happen in the same kind of speed later in life. And so you have to always understand, you have to look forward, you have to understand that you have to move toward whatever way things are changing and not try to hold back in what is no longer appropriate.Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement NetworkAnd so, you know, in terms of tactics, I’ve been reading a lot up, reading up a lot on dementia, reading a lot on music to stimulate some of those memories. Does that help kind of get the ball rolling? If a loved one loved a certain theater production to go into one of your hobbies or they liked a certain sound of music, would that help kind of stimulate?Andrew Duxbury, MD, University of Alabama BirminghamIt absolutely can. We lay down our understanding of culture, particularly kind of pop culture, in a very specific band of our lives between roughly the ages of 12 and 25. Everything that we come to understand as being right about music, television, movies, is all created for us when we’re going through that particular maturation process.I read somewhere that the key year in regards to music is the year we are 14. Whatever we are listening to that year is what we define as being good music for the rest of our lives. So for people with dementia, because music is processed in a very different way in the brain than language.And this is why, for instance, like all of the great epics are written in poetry, because we can not transfer orally prose language in large chunks, person to person very well. But we can transfer lyric and song and poetry person to person in large chunks much more easily. We lay down those poems and those songs and that and we always remember them and we all know this phenomenon because we’ve all been in the car listening to the radio and some song comes on that we haven’t heard in decades and we’re singing along.Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement NetworkDoctor, in terms of the environment, thank you for that, in terms of the environment that we’re in when we’re communicating with our loved ones, should it be less stimulative, meaning quieter environment where you can look at the person one-on-one, there’s not these distractions, for example, you’re not in the mall, you’re not in…Andrew Duxbury, MD, University of Alabama BirminghamAbsolutely. Our brains have a finite capacity for processing information. And in a young healthy brain, that capacity is pretty large and a young person can be in a party and yelling and shrieking and music is blaring and you can hear someone say your name across the room and you can all of a sudden focus in on that conversation and drop out all of the other noise.But older brains just can’t do that. Older brains also have to deal with the fact that hearing decreases some as we age, it happens in everybody, and because we don’t hear as well, we start making up with that with other cues and we all start reading lips as we age in terms of understanding spoken language. So in order to really clearly understand someone, we have to see the face and we have to have not too much extraneous noise that the brain could pull into sound processing as somehow being part of the spoken information.At my age, in my mid-60s now, I realized that if the lawnmower or something’s going outside the window, all of a sudden the person talking to me from the other room is like they’re speaking Swahili because other noises are just getting into that stream of information and I don’t understand it as well.Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement NetworkWell, doctor, I’ve got about a minute left and I want to ask you, I want you to touch on the latest, the future of research, but also could you talk about integrating technology? There’s a lot of new technology out there. People that go to the Consumer Electronics Show know there’s a lot of technology that’s being demoed for people in our age demographic.Andrew Duxbury, MD, University of Alabama BirminghamWell, it’s because there’s so many people in our age demographic. We have roughly somewhere between 8 and 10,000 people a day having their 80th birthday for the next 20 years and that’s just the baby boom and what has happened with our society. I don’t know exactly how AI is going to build into all of this and how we age and how we process information.My guess is there will be devices that will come online that will allow us to better understand the streams of information we need to and that AI will be able to help us eliminate those which are distracting. How that’s going to work, I have no idea. That’s way over my head in terms of understanding technology.Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement NetworkYeah, well certainly, it’s iterative. We’re sure there are people in the field that you’re in or trying to take the data sets, trying to analyze them and try to get that research done more expeditiously. Dr. Duxbury, we’re going to have to leave it there. Thanks so much for joining us and look, we look forward to having you back on the program again very soon, sir.Andrew Duxbury, MD, University of Alabama BirminghamIt will be my pleasure.
BUSINESS
Dividend-paying restaurant stock stumbles as gas prices surge
Restaurant stocks have been a rough ride lately. Since tensions in the Middle East flared, the sector has quietly been losing ground, and Wall Street is starting to pay close attention.The reason is simple. When gas prices rise, people have less money left over for eating out. It’s one of the most direct and predictable patterns in consumer behavior.That’s the warning Deutsche Bank analyst Lauren Silberman issued recently, according to CNBC. The analyst also pointed out that when gas prices spiked in response to the Russia-Ukraine war, several restaurant chains saw a “near-immediate” drop in customer traffic. She thinks it could happen again.Darden Restaurants is one of the most notable casualties. The Orlando, Fla.-based company behind Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and more than a dozen other dining brands across the U.S. and Canada has seen its share price decline by 7.5% over the past month.However, the ongoing drawdown has raised the forward yield for Darden (DRI) to 3%, making the dividend stock attractive to income seekers. Darden Restaurants stock is a top buy for income investorsDarden is one of the few casual-dining names to which income investors pay attention. The stock pays shareholders a quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share, up from $0.40 per share in 2006.In the past two decades, DRI stock has returned 452% to shareholders. However, if adjusted for dividend reinvestments, the cumulative returns exceed 900%, according to Y-charts.com. Analysts tracking the dividend stock forecast that the restaurant giant will end fiscal 2026 with free cash flow of less than $1 billion. Comparatively, the annual dividend expense for Darden is around $700 million, indicating a high payout ratio of 70%. However, given consensus estimates, FCF is forecast to improve to $1.6 billion in fiscal 2029 (ending in May). Over the next three years, the annual dividend will be around $7.16 per share. Key dividend metrics for Darden stock:Dividend yield: Approx. 3%Quarterly dividend per share: $1.50Annual dividend per share: $6Dividend payout ratio: Roughly 70% of FCFDividend frequency: QuarterlyDarden has steadily increased its dividend each year following its post-pandemic recovery. For income investors, a payout ratio around 70% means the company earns more than it pays out, leaving room to sustain the dividend even if profits dip slightly.Macro headwinds could impact DardenDespite the stock’s recent slide, Darden delivered a solid second quarter for fiscal year 2026. Total sales came in at $3.1 billion, up 7% from the same period last year.Same-restaurant sales grew 4.3% across the portfolio. That beat the broader casual dining industry benchmark by 300 basis points year over year (YoY).
Olive Garden is the key driver of sales for Darden Restaurants.Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Olive Garden was a standout. It posted same-restaurant sales growth of 4.7%, helped by its popular Never Ending Pasta Bowl promotion and the launch of first-party delivery through Uber Direct. Delivery made up 4% of total Olive Garden sales during the quarter, and roughly half of that was brand-new, incremental revenue.LongHorn Steakhouse wasn’t far behind, posting same-restaurant sales growth of 5.9%.The bad news? Beef prices. They’ve been running near historically high levels, pushing commodity inflation to around 5.5% for the quarter. Related: Olive Garden makes big menu move as restaurant prices surgeThat squeezed margins across almost every segment. Darden chose to price its menu 1.3% below inflation, meaning it absorbed some of the cost rather than passing it all on to guests. That’s a deliberate strategy to protect long-term loyalty, but it did weigh on near-term earnings.Adjusted diluted earnings per share came in at $2.08, up just 2.5% from a year ago.What’s ahead for Darden stock Management updated its guidance for the full fiscal year. It now expects total sales growth of 8.5% to 9.3%, with same-restaurant sales growth of 3.5% to 4.3%. Full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance remains between $10.50 and $10.70.CFO Raj Vennam said the gap between pricing and inflation should narrow in the second half of the year, helping margins improve. More Dividend Stocks:156-year-old energy giant to pay $17 billion in dividends as oil spikes to $110114-year-old defense stock offers a $3 billion dividend payout in 2026This megacap AI stock pays over $12 billion in annual dividendsBeef costs are expected to ease as the year progresses, providing some relief.Still, with gas prices a wild card and consumers already showing signs of caution, particularly households earning less than $50,000, the near-term outlook for restaurant stocks like Darden carries real risk.Out of the 19 analysts covering Darden stock, 13 recommend “buy” and six recommend “hold.” The average DRI stock price target is $226, 11.6% above the current price. If we include dividends, cumulative returns could be closer to 14.5%.The silver lining for income investors: Darden’s 30-year track record as a public company includes an annualized total shareholder return of 10% or more in every 10 years. That kind of consistency doesn’t disappear overnight.But if gas prices stay elevated heading into summer, Silberman’s warning could prove timely. Investors holding DRI stock for the dividend may want to watch traffic trends closely in the next quarter.Related: Down 63 percent, Warren Buffett dividend stock signals opportunity
Rethinking AEO when software agents navigate the web on behalf of users
For more than two decades, digital businesses have relied on a simple assumption: When someone interacts with a website, that activity reflects a human making a conscious choice. Clicks are treated as signals of interest. Time on page is assumed to indicate engagement. Movement through a funnel is interpreted as intent. Entire growth strategies, marketing budgets, and product decisions have been built on this premise.Today, that assumption is quietly beginning to erode.As AI-powered tools increasingly interact with the web on behalf of users, many of the signals organizations depend on are becoming harder to interpret. The data itself is still accurate — pages are viewed, buttons are clicked, actions are recorded — but the meaning behind those actions is changing. This shift isn’t theoretical or limited to edge cases. It’s already influencing how leaders read dashboards, forecast demand, and evaluate performance.The challenge ahead isn’t stopping AI-driven interactions. It’s learning how to interpret digital behavior in a world where human and automated activity increasingly overlap.A changing assumption about web trafficFor decades, the foundation of the internet rested on a quiet, human-centric model. Behind every scroll, form submission, or purchase flow was a person acting out of curiosity, need, or intent. Analytics platforms evolved to capture these behaviors. Security systems focused on separating “legitimate users” from clearly scripted automation. Even digital advertising economics assumed that engagement equaled human attention.Over the last few years, that model has begun to shift. Advances in large language models (LLMs), browser automation, and AI-driven agents have made it possible for software systems to navigate the web in ways that feel fluid and context-aware. Pages are explored, options are compared, workflows are completed — often without obvious signs of automation.This doesn’t mean the web is becoming less human. Instead, it’s becoming more hybrid. AI systems are increasingly embedded in everyday workflows, acting as research assistants, comparison tools, or task completers on behalf of people. As a result, the line between a human interacting directly with a site and software acting for them is becoming less distinct.The challenge isn’t automation itself. It’s the ambiguity this overlap introduces into the signals businesses rely on.What do we mean by AI-generated traffic?When people hear “automated traffic,” they often think of the bots of the past — rigid scripts that followed predefined paths and broke the moment an interface changed. Those systems were repetitive, predictable, and relatively easy to identify.AI-generated traffic is different.Modern AI agents combine machine learning (ML) with automated browsing capabilities. They can interpret page layouts, adapt to interface changes, and complete multi-step tasks. In many cases, language models guide decision-making, allowing these systems to adjust behavior based on context rather than fixed rules. The result is interaction that appears far more natural than earlier automation.Importantly, this kind of traffic is not inherently problematic. Automation has long played a productive role on the web, from search indexing and accessibility tools to testing frameworks and integrations. Newer AI agents simply extend this evolution — helping users summarize content, compare products, or gather information across multiple sites.The issue is not intent, but interpretation. When AI agents interact with a site successfully on behalf of users, traditional engagement metrics may no longer reflect the same meaning they once did.Why AI-generated traffic is becoming harder to distinguishHistorically, detecting automated activity relied on spotting technical irregularities. Systems flagged behavior that moved too fast, followed perfectly consistent paths, or lacked standard browser features. Automation exposed “tells” that made classification straightforward.AI-driven systems change this dynamic. They operate through standard browsers. They pause, scroll, and navigate non-linearly. They vary timing and interaction sequences. Because these agents are designed to interact with the web as it was built — for humans — their behavior increasingly blends into normal usage patterns.As a result, the challenge shifts from identifying errors to interpreting behavior. The question becomes less about whether an interaction is automated and more about how it unfolds over time. Many of the signals that once separated humans from software are converging, making binary classification less effective.When engagement stops meaning what we thinkConsider a common e-commerce scenario.A retail team notices a sustained increase in product views and “add to cart” actions. Historically, this would be a clear signal of growing demand, prompting increased ad spend or inventory expansion.Now imagine that a portion of this activity is generated by AI agents performing price monitoring or product comparison on behalf of users. The interactions occurred. The metrics are accurate. But the underlying intent is different. The funnel no longer represents a straightforward path toward purchase.Nothing is “wrong” with the data — but the meaning has shifted.Similar patterns are appearing across industries:Digital publishers see spikes in article engagement without corresponding ad revenue.SaaS companies observe heavy feature exploration with limited conversion.Travel platforms record increased search activity that doesn’t translate into bookings.In each case, organizations risk optimizing for activity rather than value.Why this is a data and analytics problemAt its core, AI-generated traffic introduces ambiguity into the assumptions underlying analytics and modeling. Many systems assume that observed behavior maps cleanly to human intent. When automated interactions are mixed into datasets, that assumption weakens.Behavioral data may now include:Exploration without purchase intentResearch-driven navigationTask completion without conversionRepeated patterns driven by automation goalsFor analytics teams, this introduces noise into labels, weakens proxy metrics, and increases the risk of feedback loops. Models trained on mixed signals may learn to optimize for volume rather than outcomes that matter to the business.This doesn’t invalidate analytics. It raises the bar for interpretation.Data integrity in a machine-to-machine worldAs behavioral data increasingly feeds ML systems that shape user experience, the composition of that data matters. If a growing share of interactions comes from automated agents, platforms may begin to optimize for machine navigation rather than human experience.Over time, this can subtly reshape the web. Interfaces may become efficient for extraction and summarization while losing the irregularities that make them intuitive or engaging for people. Preserving a meaningful human signal requires moving beyond raw volume and focusing on interaction context.From exclusion to interpretationFor years, the default response to automation was exclusion. CAPTCHAs, rate limits, and static thresholds worked well when automated behavior was clearly distinct.That approach is becoming less effective. AI-driven agents often provide real value to users, and blanket blocking can degrade user experience without improving outcomes. As a result, many organizations are shifting from exclusion toward interpretation.Rather than asking how to keep automation out, teams are asking how to understand different types of traffic and respond appropriately — serving purpose-aligned experiences without assuming a single definition of legitimacy.Behavioral context as a complementary signalOne promising approach is focusing on behavioral context. Instead of centering analysis on identity, systems examine how interactions unfold over time.Human behavior is inconsistent and inefficient. People hesitate, backtrack, and explore unpredictably. Automated agents, even when adaptive, tend to exhibit a more structured internal logic. By observing navigation flow, timing variability, and interaction sequencing, teams can infer intent probabilistically rather than categorically.This allows organizations to remain open while gaining a more nuanced understanding of activity.Ethics, privacy, and responsible interpretationAs analysis becomes more sophisticated, ethical boundaries become more important. Understanding interaction patterns is not the same as tracking individuals.The most resilient approaches rely on aggregated, anonymized signals and transparent practices. The goal is to protect platform integrity while respecting user expectations. Trust remains a foundational requirement, not an afterthought.The future: A spectrum of agencyLooking ahead, web interactions increasingly fall along a spectrum. On one end humans are browsing directly, in the middle users are assisted by AI tools, on the other end agents are acting independently on a user’s behalf.This evolution reflects a maturing digital ecosystem. It also demands a shift in how success is measured. Simple counts of clicks or visits are no longer sufficient. Value must be assessed in context.What business leaders should focus on nowAI-generated traffic is not a problem to eliminate — it’s a reality to understand.Leaders who adapt successfully will:Reevaluate how engagement metrics are interpretedSeparate activity from intent in analytics reviewsInvest in contextual and probabilistic measurement approachesPreserve data quality as AI participation growsTreat trust and privacy as design principlesThe web has evolved before, and it will evolve again. The question is whether organizations are prepared to evolve how they read the signals it produces.Shashwat Jain is a senior software engineer at Amazon.
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Your day-ahead look for March 16, 2026
IRS staffing cuts could delay your tax refunds this year
You filed your taxes, triple-checked the numbers, and hit submit. Now you are watching your bank account like a hawk, waiting for that refund to land. But this year, the wait might test your patience more than usual.The IRS is heading into the heart of tax season with the smallest workforce it has had in years. The agency shed roughly 28,000 employees over the course of 2025, a staggering drop that has gutted customer service lines, slowed onboarding for seasonal hires, and created a backlog of unresolved returns from prior years that still has not been cleared.At the same time, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduced over 100 changes to the tax code, many of them retroactive, making this season one of the most complicated in recent memory. The combination of fewer workers and more complex returns has watchdogs, tax professionals, and taxpayers asking the same question.“Will your refund actually show up on time?”The IRS lost more than a quarter of its staff in a single year.The IRS began 2025 with approximately 102,000 employees. By December, the headcount had dropped to about 74,000, a 27% reduction, according to the National Taxpayer Advocate’s 2025 Annual Report to Congress. The cuts hit nearly every division of the agency, and many of the departing employees were experienced workers whose institutional knowledge cannot be easily replaced.The losses were especially severe in departments that directly serve you as a taxpayer. The Taxpayer Services division, which handles phone calls, correspondence, and in-person assistance, lost 21% of its workforce. The Small Business/Self-Employed division, responsible for helping small business owners and freelancers navigate their obligations, saw a reduction of more than 37%.The Information Technology department, which maintains the systems that actually process your return, was cut by 25%, and the departments that handle processing original and amended returns, catching errors, and resolving fraud cases lost 17% of their staff, according to the National Taxpayer Advocate’s Fiscal Year 2026 Objectives Report to Congress.Seasonal hiring fell far behind scheduleThe IRS typically brings on thousands of temporary workers each year to handle the crush of tax season. This year, that pipeline broke down. The late 2025 government shutdown and changes to federal hiring processes delayed onboarding across the board.As of December 2025, the division responsible for processing original and amended returns had onboarded just 2% of the seasonal employees it planned to hire, according to the Yahoo Personal Finance report citing the Taxpayer Advocate’s findings. Even when new hires do come through the door, onboarding takes up to 80 days, meaning many of those workers will not be fully trained before the April 15 filing deadline passes.Phone support is especially thinThe department that assists taxpayers by phone and in person was only able to bring on 66% of the staff it needed for this tax season. The employees who did get hired received modified training due to time constraints. Instead of resolving your issues directly, many of these new representatives are limited to screening calls, answering basic questions, and routing you to another department. If your return gets flagged or you have a question about the new tax law, getting a knowledgeable person on the line could take significantly longer than in past years.New tax law changes are making returns harder to processThe One Big Beautiful Bill Act made over 100 changes to the tax code, effective retroactively to January 1, 2025. While many of these provisions benefit taxpayers, including new above-the-line deductions for tips, overtime pay, and auto loan interest, as well as a $6,000 senior deduction for retirees, they also introduce layers of complexity that the IRS must navigate with fewer people.National Taxpayer Advocate Erin M. Collins put it directly in her 2025 Annual Report to Congress: the OBBBA’s deductions and benefits are subject to complex eligibility rules, income thresholds, and phase-outs that many taxpayers will struggle to understand, and the IRS will find difficult to administer accurately during filing season.What does that mean for you in practice?If you qualify for one of the new deductions but apply it incorrectly, your return could get flagged for review. That review process takes longer when there are fewer employees to handle it. If you call the IRS for guidance on whether you qualify for the tip or overtime deduction, the person who answers may not have the training to give you a clear answer. If you filed a Schedule 1-A to claim one of the OBBBA deductions, you are one of nearly 15 million filers who submitted that form, according to IRS filing season data, adding another layer of processing demand on a shrinking workforce.A 2-million-return backlog is still lingering from last yearEven before this tax season started, the IRS was already behind. A backlog of roughly 2 million returns from previous filing years remained unresolved heading into 2026. While the agency kept thousands of employees working through the October and November 2025 government shutdown, progress on that backlog was minimal.More Personal Finance:Why selling a home to your child for a dollar can backfireElon Musk says ‘universal high income’ is comingFTC, 21 states sue Uber over ‘shady’ subscription billingThat means the same reduced workforce now juggling 164 million new returns also has to clear old inventory. If your return from a prior year is stuck in that pile, you could be waiting even longer for a resolution. In 2025, about 3.6 million taxpayers received their refunds beyond the IRS’s normal processing window, with e-filers waiting an average of seven weeks and paper filers waiting 14 weeks, the Taxpayer Advocate’s report found.Paper returns face the steepest delaysThe IRS has been pushing to convert paper returns to electronic format, but the automated systems needed to make that conversion happen have not been fully completed due to workforce losses. If you file on paper, your return will take longer to enter the system and be processed. The IRS itself has said electronic filing with direct deposit is the fastest way to get your money, and in 2026, that gap between e-filers and paper filers is likely to be even wider.Early filing season numbers show a mixed pictureThe IRS expects approximately 164 million individual tax returns to be filed for the 2025 tax year, according to its 2026 filing season announcement. Early data paints an interesting, if uneven, picture of how the season is playing out so far.Key early-season statsAs of late February 2026, the IRS had received about 2.6% fewer returns than in the same period in 2025 and processed about 3.1% fewer returns, according to Tax Notes.The average refund as of late February was $3,742, up 10.6% from $3,382 at the same point last year, per the Tax Foundation.Visits to IRS.gov were running 42% higher than the same time in 2025, likely reflecting heightened taxpayer interest in the new OBBBA provisions.The IRS had issued 36.5 million refunds as of late February 2026, compared to 36.9 million at the same point last year.The refund numbers look strong on average, but the slight dip in processing volume is a signal worth watching. If that gap persists through March, it could indicate the staffing cuts are slowing the agency’s ability to keep pace with incoming filings.Five steps you should take to protect your refundYou cannot control how many employees the IRS has, but you can control how you file and what you do afterward. These steps will help you avoid the most common delays.Your refund protection checklistFile electronically and choose direct deposit: The IRS has phased out paper refund checks under Executive Order 14247. If you do not provide bank account or direct deposit details, your refund could be frozen or significantly delayed. E-filing with direct deposit remains the fastest way to receive your refund, with most refunds arriving within 21 days.Double-check your eligibility for new OBBBA deductions: If you earned tips, worked overtime, financed an American-made car, or turned 65 in 2025, you may qualify for new above-the-line deductions on Schedule 1-A. These deductions have specific eligibility rules and income phaseouts. Claiming one you do not qualify for could trigger a review and push your refund back by weeks.Track your refund using IRS tools: The Where’s My Refund? tool updates 24 hours after the IRS receives an e-filed return and four weeks after receiving a paper return. You can also check through the IRS2Go mobile app or your IRS Individual Online Account.Use online IRS resources instead of calling: With phone support stretched thin, the IRS’s self-service tools are your best bet: The Interactive Tax Assistant can answer questions about filing requirements, deductions, and credits without a hold time.Update your W-4 now for 2026: If you are getting a significantly larger refund this year, it likely means you were over-withholding throughout 2025. Use the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator to adjust your W-4 so you keep more money in each paycheck going forward, rather than lending it to the government interest-free.Some taxpayers face a higher risk of delays than othersNot every filer will experience problems. If you file electronically, claim the standard deduction, and provide direct deposit information, the IRS says your return should move through the system quickly. The people most at risk for delays are those whose returns require additional human review.Filers most likely to see extended wait timesPaper filers: Automated systems to convert paper returns to digital have not been fully implemented. Paper returns take significantly longer to process, and that gap is widening this year.Filers with errors or missing information: Returns that get flagged for errors, incomplete data, or potential fraud require manual review. With fewer agents available, those reviews will take longer.OBBBA deduction claimants: If your return includes a Schedule 1-A for the new tip, overtime, or auto loan deductions, there is a higher chance of processing scrutiny, especially in the early months of implementation.Identity theft victims: Resolution times for identity theft cases averaged more than 21 months during 2025. The Taxpayer Advocate has called these delays “unconscionable,” and staffing reductions are unlikely to improve them.Amended return filers: If you already filed without claiming an eligible OBBBA deduction and need to submit a Form 1040-X, expect your amended return to join a backlog that was already 2 million returns deep before this season started.Bigger refunds do not necessarily mean better newsThe average refund this season has climbed to approximately $3,742, up more than 10% from last year, according to IRS data compiled by the Tax Foundation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called 2026 potentially the largest refund season on record. That sounds like a win, but there is context you should understand.A larger refund does not mean you paid less in taxes. It means you overpaid throughout the year, and the government is returning the excess. The OBBBA deductions boosting refunds this year were retroactive, but employers did not adjust withholding tables immediately after the law passed in mid-2025. So, in the second half of 2025, many workers had too much taken from every paycheck under the old rules.Related: The IRS Says Tax Refunds are Up 10%The real financial benefit for most people will not come from this year’s refund. It will come from updated withholding in 2026 that puts more money in your paycheck each period, instead of making you wait until next spring to get it back. Review your W-4 after you receive your refund so you are not giving the government another interest-free loan for 12 months.The Taxpayer Advocate’s warning you need to hearErin M. Collins, the National Taxpayer Advocate, has been direct about the risks facing taxpayers this season. In her 2025 Annual Report to Congress, she noted that the 2025 filing season went well in part because the IRS had its largest workforce in many years and faced no major tax law changes. Entering 2026, she wrote, the landscape is markedly different.Collins acknowledged that most taxpayers who file electronically with direct deposit and whose returns are not stopped by processing filters will have a smooth experience. But the true test of the filing season, she wrote, will be defined by how well the IRS assists the millions of taxpayers who encounter problems.If your return is straightforward, you are likely fine. If something goes wrong, you need a question answered, or your return gets flagged, this is the year where patience and preparation matter more than ever.