BUSINESS

HP Inc. (HPQ) is up almost 38% this year, and shareholders have every reason to feel good about that run.

Then Morgan Stanley showed up with a number that stopped the celebration cold.

The firm looked at HP’s latest quarter, acknowledged the earnings beat, and still told clients the stock could lose roughly a third of its value from here.

HP is not the only stock seeing this split. Bank of America made a similar call before HP even reported.

For anyone holding HP or thinking about buying the dip after a strong year, the reasoning behind that call matters. 

HP’s revenue is growing, but Morgan Stanley doesn’t think the profit will keep up. That gap is what the call is about.

Why Morgan Stanley kept HP stock at Underweight after the earnings beat

Morgan Stanley reiterated an Underweight rating on HP and lifted its price target to $19 from $17, in a Morgan Stanley research note shared with me.

Underweight is the firm’s way of saying it expects the stock to trail its industry group over the next 12 to 18 months. It is the closest thing Morgan Stanley has to a “sell.”

HP closed at $30.52 on Aug. 28, so a $19 target points to a more than 30% slide.

More PC and Memory Stocks:

Bank of America sends warning on HP stock before earnings

Bank of America doubles down on Micron stock price for 2026

5-star analyst sets jaw-dropping Micron stock price target for 2026

The call comes from Erik Woodring, head of U.S. Technology Hardware Equity Research at Morgan Stanley, who has covered the hardware sector for years. 

TipRanks data shows his ratings turn a profit around 59% of the time, so this is a calculated stance, not an impulsive call.

His argument is simple. HP’s fiscal third-quarter revenue rose 12.5% to $15.7 billion, and the company beat earnings expectations.

However, the growth came from higher prices, not more units sold.

That distinction is the whole case, and it runs through every part of the note.

HP shares are up sharply in 2026, but Morgan Stanley says the profit picture is weaker than the sales figures suggest.Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

HP’s PC business is selling fewer machines at higher prices

HP shipped 16% fewer PCs year over year in the July quarter, according to Morgan Stanley, and still grew that segment’s revenue by charging more per machine.

Higher prices didn’t just offset the drop in units. They pushed segment revenue higher. 

It also helped lift HP’s total company revenue, which includes Print alongside PCs, by 12.5% for the quarter.

That works until buyers push back. 

Morgan Stanley expects double-digit unit declines to continue into fiscal 2027 as memory-driven price increases weigh on demand.

Here is the risk the firm flags for next year:

Unit sales keep falling as higher prices scare off buyers.

HP responds with promotions to win those buyers back.

Those discounts, plus rising component costs, squeeze profit margins.

HP’s management expects PC margins to bottom out soon and recover through 2027. Morgan Stanley disagrees, and is openly positioning against that recovery.

The firm believes unit declines will get severe enough that HP is forced to cut prices again, right as component costs keep climbing.

Why AI PCs are not the rescue investors hoped for

HP has leaned hard on AI PCs, machines built to run artificial intelligence tasks on the device itself, and now says they are approaching half of its shipments.

Morgan Stanley is not convinced AI PCs change the demand picture.

The firm sees AI PCs as replacements for regular commercial PCs rather than a reason for companies to buy sooner or buy more.

In plain terms, a business that was going to buy a laptop anyway just buys an AI version instead. The total number of machines sold does not rise.

Related: Citi renews Nvidia stock forecast ahead of earnings

That view matters because a genuine upgrade wave would be the fastest way to break Morgan Stanley’s bearish case. The firm is telling investors it does not see that wave yet.

Bank of America reached a similar conclusion before earnings, warning that HP’s improving PC sales might not reach the bottom line. 

Analyst Wamsi Mohan kept an Underperform rating and an $18 target in an earlier note.

The printing business adds a second margin problem

HP’s other major segment is Imaging and Printing, and it faces its own pressure.

Morgan Stanley expects low-single-digit revenue declines there as demand for both hardware and supplies keeps shrinking.

Competition is the bigger issue. Japanese rivals, helped by a weak yen that makes their products cheaper abroad, are pushing prices down across the market.

That is expected to drag Print operating margins toward the low end of HP’s 16% to 19% long-term target.

So HP now has margin pressure building in both of its main businesses at the same time. 

That is the core of why the firm expects profit to fall next year, even as revenue holds up.

How the $19 target breaks down for HP shareholders

Morgan Stanley’s $19 target rests on a 7x price-to-earnings multiple applied to projected fiscal 2027 earnings of $2.75 per share.

The price-to-earnings multiple is simply how many dollars investors will pay for each dollar of a company’s annual profit. 

A lower multiple means the market is paying less for the same earnings, usually because it expects those earnings to shrink.

That $2.75 estimate sits 9% below the Wall Street consensus of $3.02, which tells you how far Morgan Stanley is from the crowd.

The firm’s base case assumes:

Revenue falls about 1% year over year in fiscal 2027.

Earnings per share drops roughly 16% year over year.

Rising memory and component costs do the damage.

Memory prices are the pressure point that connects HP to the wider market. 

The same shortage hurting HP has been a windfall for memory makers like Micron (MU), which sells the chips HP has to buy. 

What lifts one side of the trade squeezes the other.

What HP investors should watch before making a move

None of this guarantees HP falls to $19. 

Morgan Stanley names its own risks, and they are worth tracking. A stronger-than-expected PC recovery, deeper corporate cost cuts, or aggressive stock buybacks could all support the shares and undermine the bearish case.

Practical steps for shareholders:

Watch the margins, not the revenue. Rising sales mean little if profit keeps reducing. Personal Systems and Print operating margins are the numbers that decide this call.

Track memory costs. A longer memory shortage would deepen HP’s margin problem and validate Morgan Stanley’s darkest scenario.

Weigh the yield against the risk. HP still pays a dividend near 4%, which cushions the wait but does not erase the downside Morgan Stanley sees.

This is not investment advice, and one bearish note is not a verdict. HP has beaten low expectations before.

HP’s sales are holding up, but Morgan Stanley believes the profit behind those sales is heading lower.

That is why the firm is willing to sit at a $19 target while the rest of Wall Street waits for proof either way.

HP shareholders have earned real gains this year. Morgan Stanley is betting the next stretch looks nothing like the last one.

Related: Broadcom stands to gain from new cloud deal

Dismissed as “not a product guy,” the outgoing CEO proved that supply-chain mastery could take Apple to new heights.

Mark Cuban has spent years picking fights with the companies that control how Americans pay for prescription drugs. He’s built an entire business around the idea that middlemen, not doctors or manufacturers, are the reason medicine costs so much.

Now he is bringing that fight into one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.

The billionaire entrepreneur is teaming up with Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico on a plan to break up what they call “Big Medicine monopolies,” giving Cuban’s long-running healthcare crusade a direct line into electoral politics just months before voters head to the polls in one of the tightest statewide contests of the cycle.

Mark Cuban and Talarico healthcare reform plan

Talarico, a member of the Texas House of Representatives running against state Attorney General Ken Paxton, unveiled the proposal in a plan first shared with CNBC. The two will appear together for a live event and podcast recording in Fort Worth on Aug. 29 to discuss the plan.

“Mark and I agree it’s time to break up the Big Medicine monopolies that control our broken healthcare system,” Talarico said, according to CNBC.

“Healthcare corporations are ripping us off, jacking up premiums and profiting off our pain. This plan will break up monopolies, lower medical debt, bring down the cost of prescription drugs, and ensure doctors decide what medication their patients need, not insurance companies.”

Related: Mark Cuban predicts radical change for American workers

Talarico cited data showing that 90% of all U.S. hospital beds are controlled by large hospital systems, and that three pharmacy benefit managers, CVS Caremark, Express Scripts, and Optum Rx, process 80% of all prescriptions nationwide, according to Fox26.

A central piece of the proposal is stronger antitrust enforcement aimed at vertically integrated healthcare companies — the insurers, pharmacy benefit managers, and hospital systems that increasingly own multiple links in the same supply chain.

Cuban’s statement backing the plan struck a deliberately bipartisan note. “I’ve spent a long time working to reduce the cost of healthcare for everybody,” Cuban said, as CNBC reported.

“Politicians in Washington have not. Whether you’re a Republican, Democrat, or an independent, you want more affordable, better quality healthcare. The plan James has put together will accomplish exactly that, which is why I am supporting it.”

Cuban’s Cost Plus Drugs track record

Cuban did not arrive at this endorsement casually. He co-founded the Mark Cuban Cost Plus Drug Company in 2022 to sell generic medications at the manufacturer’s cost plus a flat 15% markup, with pharmacy and shipping fees, while bypassing traditional middlemen such as pharmacy benefit managers, according to TheStreet.

That company has become the backbone of Cuban’s broader argument that the healthcare system is rigged by middlemen rather than doctors or patients. Cost Plus Drugs built its model specifically to sidestep the pricing structure used by traditional pharmacy benefit managers and has grown to challenge established rivals such as Walgreens, CVS, and Amazon, CNBC reported.

He has also backed the Break Up Big Medicine Act, introduced in Congress in February 2026, which would force large insurers to separate their PBM divisions, provider networks, and drug distribution arms from their core insurance business, according to CNBC.

His endorsement of Talarico builds on public comments he made weeks earlier. In an Aug. 21 appearance on the “Pivot” podcast with Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway, Cuban called Talarico “honest” and said he would “do the right thing instead of the politically expedient thing,” a preview of the alliance now playing out in the Senate race, according to CNBC.

Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban is teaming up with Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico on a plan to break up what they call “Big Medicine monopolies.”Adamkaz/Getty Images

Why CVS UnitedHealth and big healthcare are watching

The proposal lands directly on the business model that has made CVS Health one of the most vertically integrated companies in American healthcare. Its structure combines Aetna insurance, CVS Caremark pharmacy benefit management, and thousands of retail pharmacies, according to GuruFocus.

CVS is not the only company exposed. UnitedHealth, Cigna, and Elevance Health could all face greater scrutiny if lawmakers moved to separate insurance, PBM, and provider businesses that have become increasingly intertwined over the past decade, GuruFocus noted.

Talarico and Cuban are not alone in pushing this argument. Sen. Elizabeth Warren has separately called for breaking up the same vertical integration at UnitedHealth, CVS, and Cigna, pointing to entities like Optum that link insurance, pharmacy, and provider services under one roof, according to CNBC.

What Cuban’s endorsement means for the Texas race

Cuban’s involvement gives Talarico’s campaign a business voice on an issue that consistently ranks among voters’ top concerns.

Healthcare affordability has become a defining theme of the race against Paxton. Polling shows the contest remains extremely tight, with Talarico holding a slim lead over Paxton in some surveys while trailing by a point in others, The Hill confirmed.

That tight margin makes an endorsement from a business figure like Cuban, who has spent years positioning himself as a critic of healthcare costs rather than a partisan actor, a potentially useful tool for a campaign trying to appeal across party lines in a traditionally Republican state.

Whether the plan itself ever becomes law is a separate question from whether it helps Talarico politically in a state Democrats have not won statewide in more than three decades, Fox26 reported.

For now, the proposal remains just that, a proposal. Still, the event scheduled for Aug. 29 in Fort Worth will be the clearest test yet of how much weight Cuban’s healthcare credibility can add to a campaign trying to flip one of the most closely contested Senate seats in the country.

Related: Mark Cuban just sent a strong message to America’s workers

In the wake of the “GTA 6 Extended Look,” some fans claim that “GTA 5” looks better. A “GTA 5” actor is now shooting that down.

‘Camp Rock 3’ debuts at No. 9 on Billboard’s Soundtracks chart, giving the franchise another top 10 hit but with a clear step down from its predecessors.

Guns and ammunition retailers have faced financial distress, leading to store closings and bankruptcy filings as sales have fallen significantly over the last two years.

Industry experts believe some of the decline in sales might have resulted from buyers delaying purchases to take advantage of the reduction in the National Firearms Act tax from $200 to $0 beginning Jan. 1, 2026, the National Rifle Association’s American Rifleman reported. The decline of sales, however, has continued in 2026.

Financial issues had led firearms and ammunition retailer White Oak Armory LLC to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize its business, owing a disputed tax debt to the Tennessee Department of Revenue.

White Oak Armory has filed for bankruptcy protection facing a substantial tax debt.Shutterstock

White Oak Armory files for bankruptcy

White Oak Armory filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Tennessee on Aug. 24, listing $500,000 to $1 million in assets and liabilities. The petition did not reveal whether the company’s sales had declined, and the debtor did not give a specific reason for filing for bankruptcy in its petition.

The retailer was not immediately available for comment. The firearms dealer’s website and telephone were still operating on Aug. 30.

The Cleveland, Tenn.-based debtor’s largest creditor is the Tennessee Department of Revenue, owed $600,000 in disputed debt. The firearms and ammunition dealer also listed Cleveland Utilities and Spectrum as creditors but did not include the amounts of debt owed to each creditor.

No inventory listed on website

White Oak Armory’s website did not have any handgun, rifle or shotgun inventory available for sale on Aug. 30. The website also did not have any ammunition, optics or gear for sale. Some parts and accessories were available, however.

Firearms sales declined 4.1% to about 14.6 million in 2025, compared to over 15.2 million in 2024, according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, the National Rifle Association’s American Rifleman reported.

New firearm unit sales declined by 7.6% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, and revenue declined by 2.6%, while average selling price increased by 5.4%, according to Tactical Wire.

Gun sales declined in 2026

Total firearms unit sales subsequently declined by 3.8% year over year in the second quarter of 2026 and dealers also cut inventory by 9.2%, with rifles down 12.3%, shotguns declining 9.4%, and handguns falling 7.7%, according to Gearfire’s RetailBI Q2 2026 Shooting Sports report on sales and inventory.

New rifle sales grew by 8.1%, while new handgun sales declined 5.6% and shotgun sales plummeted 17%.

While overall sales declined, revenue increased by 4.5% as the average firearm sold for 8.7% more than in the previous year. The report noted that consumers were focused on buying high-end rifles and handguns instead of entry-level models.

Other retailers file for bankruptcy

Several firearms retailers that filed for bankruptcy this year, including Hutco Corporation, the owner of the Delta Hawk Sportsman Gun & Pawn chain of stores, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on July 10 to reorganize its businesses, facing multiple civil claims.

Other the firearms companies filing for bankruptcy in 2026 include Attica, N.Y.-based Sagebrush Armory, which filed for bankruptcy on March 24, 2026, and firearms maker and dealer Custombilt Firearms Manufacturing LLC, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Feb. 8, 2026, after battling the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives over its license in 2023 and 2024.

Related: Mattress chain files Chapter 11 bankruptcy after 24 years

The door appears even more open now for an American man to win a major title for the first time since Andy Roddick 23 years ago.

Suffice it to say, the lightly-raced underdog Leading Change brought a game-changing, spectacular run to snatch the Travers from Golden Tempo. Here’s why it matters.

Oil prices jumped on Monday after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in a month.

I’ve been tracking SpaceX (SPCX) since before it went public, and I’ve written about nearly every bearish signal that’s emerged.

Doug Kass‘s short thesis, Jim Cramer‘s urge for patience before the lockup expiration, the former Nasdaq CEO‘s lockup warning, and Peter Andersen actively shorting and dismissing the Tesla merger thesis.My colleagues have also covered Michael Burry walking away from the trade entirely, and prominent veteran investor and former Fidelity manager George Noble labeling SpaceX “one of the best shorts in the market.”

Those are just a few of the signals. Now the chart is telling me the same story the fundamentals have been revealing for weeks. And when technicals and fundamentals align this cleanly, it’s time to pay close attention.

SPCX is trading around $141.50 as of the week ending Aug. 28. That’s 37% below its all-time high of $225.64, hit just four days after the June 12 IPO. 

The price crashed from that peak to $104.85 on Aug. 3, the day before SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings as a public company. Yes, the earnings beat triggered a recovery. But here’s the problem: That recovery retraced straight into a wall.

Also Read: SpaceX Latest News and Stories

What the SpaceX chart is showing right now

Let me walk you through exactly what I’m seeing technically, because the setup is cleaner than most.

After bottoming near $104.84, price retraced upward and tested a key point of interest (POI) — a resistance zone that has been tested multiple times without being convincingly broken.

At that level, I’m seeing a liquidity sweep followed by a confirmed shift in market structure. The bullish retracement leg has now broken down, signaling that the recovery move is likely complete and the broader downtrend is ready to resume.

Also, a descending trendline already tested twice with clear rejections acts as confluence with the existing bearish thesis.

My current setup is a short entry around the current market price, with a stop-loss at $151 and a target at the $104 sell-side liquidity.

That’s almost a 1:4 risk-reward setup. It is approximately a 25% decline from current levels, bringing total drawdown from the all-time high to roughly 52%.

TradingView

The bearish pressure is building, not dissipating. Every bounce into that support-turned-resistance zone has been met with a rejection. 

Until price closes convincingly above $151 on strong volume, the path of least resistance remains lower.

SpaceX fundamental case that backs up the chart

Technical analysis is not the only metric looking strong. The SPCX fundamental picture remains deeply uncomfortable for bulls at current prices.

SpaceX’s Q2 2026 earnings showed $7.8 billion in revenue, up 92% year over year. Sure, that’s a genuine beat versus the Street’s $6.93 billion estimate, according to TheStreet’s reporting. That helped the bullish retracement leg. 

More SpaceX:

Elon Musk’s startling claim to SpaceX investors

Citi sends powerful sign to SpaceX investors

Beaten-down stock lets you buy SpaceX below market price

But capital expenditure hit $18.4 billion for the quarter, with $15.8 billion directed toward AI infrastructure buildout, according to SpaceX’s Q2 2026 earnings report. Net loss was $541 million. Free cash flow stayed negative. 

The stock fell 13.6% the day after the report, according to TheStreet‘s reporting.

That reaction tells you something important about how sensitive SPCX is to cash burn. Revenue growth isn’t the problem. The spending pace is. 

And until investors see a credible path to free cash flow generation beyond Starlink — which generated approximately $1.66 billion in operating profit in Q2 and remains the only profitable segment — the multiple is difficult to justify.

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens has a fair value estimate of $62 on SPCX, which he reaffirmed after Q2 earnings, noting shares were trading at roughly twice his valuation. Former Fidelity Overseas Fund manager George Noble, who worked under Peter Lynch, told Business Insider he sees fair value for SpaceX around $30 per share. 

George flagged passive index fund flows as a structural concern, noting that retirement savings are being channeled into the stock, regardless of valuation.

Starlink has roughly 12 million subscribers and is SpaceX’s only profitable division, generating approximately $1.66 billion in operating profit in Q2 fiscal 2026.Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images

What IPO history says happens next

My chart setup and the fundamental thesis have more confluence. Historical data on large IPOs points in the same bearish direction, too.

Among the 10 largest U.S. IPOs by market value since 2006, the average stock fell 34% from its IPO price at some point during the first year, according to The Motley Fool analysis of data compiled by University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter.

Applied to SpaceX’s $135 IPO price, that historical pattern implies a drop to approximately $89 per share before June 2027.

The same dataset shows the average large IPO stock trading 12% below its IPO price after the first full year on the market, implying $119 per share for SPCX by June 2027, according to the same Motley Fool analysis.

I covered this dynamic extensively in my earlier SpaceX coverage. The median Year 1 maximum drawdown across major tech IPOs of the last decade was 54%. Facebook fell 54%. Uber dropped 68%. Snowflake lost 52%. SpaceX is already down 37% from its peak. History says there’s more room to go.

Related: Veteran hedge fund manager makes a brazen SpaceX bet

The lockup dynamic continues to add supply pressure. Roughly 911.5 million shares became eligible to trade on Aug. 6, more than doubling the public float from about 639 million to 1.55 billion shares, according to Reuters. 

Additional unlock tranches are spread across multiple dates into late 2026. More supply, same demand pool. That math doesn’t favor bulls.

SpaceX long-term case exists, but price matters

I want to be clear about something. I’m not bearish on what SpaceX is building. Starlink has roughly 12 million subscribers and is the only division generating consistent operating profit. 

The AI compute rental business, signing agreements with Anthropic, Google, and, as Bloomberg reported, Reflection AI, represents a genuinely interesting long-term revenue stream.

But there’s a massive difference between a great company and a great stock at every price. Peter Andersen, who remains actively short, put it this way when I covered him earlier: At 50 times revenue, and even if everything goes right, “You’re paying a pretty hefty price.”

Morningstar’s $62 fair value. Noble’s $30 target. My own near-term technical analysis points toward $104. These are very different methodologies converging on the same conclusion. The current price doesn’t reflect a reasonable margin of safety for the risks involved.

SPCX closed around $141.50 for the week ending Aug. 28, according to Yahoo Finance. My short setup targets $104.

None of that is a guarantee. But when the chart, the fundamentals, and the historical data all point in the same direction, I think investors deserve to hear it clearly.

Related: JPMorgan doubles down on SpaceX verdict on key update