BUSINESS

Worries come despite International Energy Agency members agreeing to release the largest ever amount of oil from emergency supplies.

The world’s richest sports team owners include billionaires from the NFL, the NBA and European soccer. See the top 25 ranking, with a combined net worth of $903 billion.

Tesla’s robotaxi and humanoid-robot promises remain unproven businesses. Its energy division isn’t. And therein lies the company’s next bright idea.

The Russian envoy claimed Washington now understood the “systemic role of Russian oil and gas in ensuring the stability of the global economy.”

The S&P 500 is synonymous with the US stock market. It represents the US large-cap stock universe and captures roughly 80% of total US market capitalization. The trillions tied to the S&P 500 make it the most tracked index in the world. Its market-cap weighting scheme is a simple, cost-efficient approach where the size of a company dictates the size of the portfolio’s position. Because positions adjust automatically as prices change, turnover and trading costs stay low. Combined with typically lower fees, this has historically given S&P 500 index funds a durable performance edge over most active peers.With dozens of S&P 500 trackers that all hold the same stocks, investors often assume they are interchangeable. However, small structural differences can meaningfully affect long-term returns. Fees, Fees, FeesBecause the portfolios are identical, the cheapest fund is almost always the best-performing fund. The chart below shows the clear relationship between a fund’s expense ratio and its performance. State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF SPYM charges one of the lowest fees, and through February 2026, it had the best 10-year annualized performance. ETF vs. Mutual FundThe two main wrappers for these funds are exchange-traded funds and mutual funds. ETFs trade on an exchange throughout the day like a stock; mutual funds price once daily after the market closes. There’s virtually no difference between the two vehicles for investors in nontaxable accounts, like health savings accounts, IRAs, or 401(k)s, assuming all distributions are reinvested. On top of that, investors often don’t have a choice between multiple S&P 500 funds to choose from in their retirement plans. Luckily, many institutional share classes that are available in employers’ 401(k) plans have razor-thin fees. Fidelity 500 Index FXAIX is a mutual fund available to any investor, and it charges only 0.015%. The vehicle matters more for investors in taxable accounts. ETFs use an in-kind creation and redemption mechanism that generally avoids triggering capital gains distributions, giving them a tax efficiency edge. In fact, none of the four S&P 500 ETFs have paid out capital gains in the past 10 years. Mutual fund capital gains distributions tend to be small, but not zero. Investors in taxable accounts will need to pay Uncle Sam on those distributions, even if they didn’t sell a single share. That’s a small but measurable drag on performance. Mutual funds offer a unique operational advantage to advisors seeking the best execution for their clients. Since mutual fund orders execute at the end of the day, unlike the real-time trading of ETFs, all orders transact at the same price. Advisors trading across multiple accounts, without the infrastructure to do block trades, can trade for their clients without the headache of execution price differences across accounts. SPY: A Trading ToolMost investors are familiar with State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY, the first ETF offered on a US exchange circa 1993. It was set up as a unit investment trust, contrary to most modern-day ETFs, which are set up as open-end funds. Unit investment trusts were the approved structure for the earliest ETFs. However, the structure comes with disadvantages: SPY can’t lend securities, can’t use derivatives to equitize cash, and must hold dividends in a non-interest-bearing account until the next quarterly distribution, creating a small but persistent cash drag. In addition, SPY’s 0.09% fee makes it more expensive than other ETF counterparts. The other three S&P 500 ETFs, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF VOO, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF IVV, and State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF, charge lower fees and don’t have SPY’s shortcomings. They’re a better alternative for long-term investors.SPY remains a dominant trading vehicle for the S&P 500, but it’s rarely the best option for long‑term investors. Its first-mover advantage made it the choice for institutional traders and market makers, and that early adoption built a self-reinforcing popularity among traders that persists today. SPY’s trading volume in dollar terms was more than 8 times that of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF over the three months through February, despite it being smaller than the Vanguard fund. The Best S&P 500 Trackers for Long-Term InvestorsPicking a fund with the lowest fee is the best option for most long-term investors. Taxable investors should lean toward ETFs because of their tax advantage. Below are great S&P 500 trackers available to all investors, and further below are great choices if offered by an employer through a 401(k) plan. Below are great S&P 500 funds commonly available in employer-sponsored retirement plans.

Bitcoin traded around $69,800 as open interest rose to $102 billion, suggesting defensive, bearish bets while altcoins outperformed in a risk-off macro backdrop.

Investors are becoming increasingly nervous about problems mounting in the $3 trillion private credit market where some creditworthiness is deteriorating in some sectors and truthful valuations are hard to ascertain.

For the past five days or so, President Trump has pronounced the war in Iran at or near an end.Behind his thinking  — and much of Congress, Wall Street and others  — is that Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iranian air defenses, air fields, naval vessels and the like have destroyed Iran’s ability to fight back.And Iran will seek a cease fire soon enough. So, the thinking goes.If that occurs, the stock market will soar to who-knows-what level.Adding to the argument: The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that its 32-member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves to try to lower global oil prices.Trump also said he would order a drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which now stores about 416 million barrels in five sites.But the president might not release the oil unhappily. In the past, he has criticized using the SPR to bring prices down.Related: A record release of oil reserves is no match for a scared energy market — oil prices are already back above where they wereAre the Iranians serious?Maybe the Iranians are engaged in fantastical bravado, but the Iranian government so far has declined to cry uncle. Most of the nations around the Persian Gulf are still getting hit with drone and missile attacks.Airlines have canceled flights into the region at least until the end of the month. British Airways has stopped flights from London Heathrow to Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates “until later this year,”theStreet’s Veronika Bondarenko reported.Abu Dhabi is about 200 miles across the Persian Gulf from Iran.On March 11, the Iranian government promised to block ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz either from the Persian Gulf or entering the Gulf. And it suggested a blockage that lasts, say, several weeks could push crude oil prices to $200 a barrel. That would more than double crude oil prices and wreak serious global economic havoc.Both Brent oil, the global crude benchmark, and Light Sweeet crude, the U.S. benchmark, seemed to jump higher on the news of the Iranian threat.Brent finished Oct. 11 at $91.98 a barrel, up 4.8% but down 23% from its 52-week high of $119.50, reached on March 9.Light sweet crude was at $87.25, up 4.6% on the day but off 27% from its $119.48 peak, also on March 9.U.S. retail gasoline prices moved up, too, to an average $3.578 a gallon, up 26% since Dec. 31, according to AAA. GasBuddy.com put the price slightly higher at $3.595.And stocks moved lower as well. Except for energy stocks. The Energy Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund was up 2.5% to $56.98. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Halliburton and SLB, formerly Schlumberger, were among the winners.The Energy led the Standard & Poor’s 11 sectors, up 2.5% on the day. Tech was a distant second, up just 0.35%More Oil and Gas:Oil, War, and Wild Swings: Why Today’s Market Mirrors a Forgotten EraEnergy giant sends blunt $20 billion message on dividend growth147-year-old oil giant just raised dividend 4% in 2026Here we must note that crude oil and gasoline prices in the last few weeks have been whipsawed by headlines far more than presidential pronouncements or IEA announcements. But the reality of the situation, wrote Michael Brown, a London-based analyst with investment house Pepperstone: “There is still a distinct lack of progress in terms of actual de-escalation, or in terms of transit through the Strait of Hormuz resuming in any meaningful manner.”

Motorist filling up in Brooklyn, N.Y.Mostafa Bassim/Ge

The odds of $200 oilBut if military might is strangling Iran’s defense capabilities, is the Iranian threat of $200-oil possible?Deutsche Bank analysts think it’s possible. That assumes: Iran is able to enforce a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz for at least three weeks and probably longer.The U.S. Navy is unable to dislodge the material and manpower Iran uses to create the blockade.RealClearEnergy estimated a full closure would take 20 million barrels a day of oil off the global market, and prices would hit $120-to-$150 a barrel just about immediately and push crude to $180 to $200.The problem for all concerned is this: Crude oil in the Middle East is pumped first into storage tanks and then, via huge tanker ships, on to refineries around the world, especially China, to be turned into gasoline, diesel, lubricants and other products.Storage capacity in the Persian Gulf region is only good for 25 days. If oil isn’t shipped, the tanks will fill up, and production will stop. Oil production in North and South America couldn’t make up the difference.Related: Shocks happen, markets move: Lessons from historyCount Goldman Sachs skepticalThe effect of a closure of the Strait can be weathered if strategic reserves and alternative pipelines are used effectively, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote last week.Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that can move crude oil, which is mostly produced from giant fields on the east side of the country, to a port on the Red Sea. Oman can pipe oil to a port on the Gulf of Oman, outside the strait.But the pipelines can’t replace all of the 60-to-70 tankers that had been taking oil out of the Gulf every day.And what do traders in the oil markets think?They understand.U.S. crude oil futures were up more than 6.6% to about $93 in overnight markets. Brent crude was up about 2% to $93.60.Related: Qatar energy minister sends strong message on $150 crude

Artificial intelligence is quickly creeping into many parts of our jobs and lives. The technology promises to immensely improve the way we live, and companies are throwing money at it, trying to capitalize on its rapid development.The investment opportunities are also enticing. New technologies come with lofty expectations and often produce big returns for the stocks and exchange-traded funds near them. But the real long-term benefits often don’t come from the technologies themselves. Instead, it’s their ability to move the entire economy forward.That story has played out many times in the past. New technologies come along that displace less efficient ways to produce and deliver goods and services. They make life easier and improve the profitability of businesses that can effectively capture their benefits.In that regard, AI isn’t that different from many past technologies.Planes, Trains, and AutomobilesThe ability to move people and products was severely limited in the early 1800s when horses and wagons were the main form of transportation. Speeds were slow and range short as traveling long distances could be dangerous, if not deadly.Trains improved those circumstances starting in the 1820s. They moved people and products from one location to another faster, safer, and cheaper than horses and wagons. The real economic impact didn’t come from their novelty or incremental gains in tourism. Businesses that were once stuck selling to locals could ship their goods to other markets more affordably. That exposed a lot of businesses to new customers and allowed them to grow bigger and more profitable.Decades later, the internal combustion engine led to the creation of the first automobiles, which further reduced the cost and increased the speed of transportation. Like trains, they could move goods long distances faster and safer, and they didn’t require rails. Airplanes would emerge in the early 1900s as another way to efficiently move people and goods across even great distances at faster speeds.All three were game-changing technologies for the economy. Not only did they produce new things that people wanted to buy, but those things had the ability to grow businesses outside of their own industry. Each innovation unlocked massive economic growth that we still enjoy today.Get Rich?New technologies like cars, planes, and trains are exciting not only as novel products but also for their investment potential. That’s especially true early on when expectations and returns are high. Investing early and directly in new technologies can produce life-changing wealth, but it’s a high-risk/high-reward endeavor. Very few early investors get rich and stay rich. It’s always been that way.Henry Ford of Ford Motor Company and William C. Durant, founder of General Motors, were among the earliest automotive pioneers in the early 1900s. Getting in at the ground level allowed them to take advantage of easy improvements to build successful businesses. Ford developed the first assembly line, and Durant formed a conglomerate of vehicle brands and parts manufacturers.The rest is history. Ford and GM have become two of the most successful automotive manufacturers in the world. Their long-term success suggests they were great investments, but that potential was hard to spot in the early 1900s.Ford’s first two attempts at building an automotive manufacturing company ended in bankruptcy, and Durant was ousted from GM more than once for making bad decisions. Durant lost his fortune twice during the stock market crashes of 1920 and 1929 before dying penniless in 1947. If that wasn’t bad enough, hundreds of automotive competitors went bankrupt, shut down, or were acquired by others. Wealth did not come easy to either man or their investors.A similar pattern is starting to play out with stocks and ETFs tied to AI. AI models like ChatGPT, Copilot, and Gemini are just starting to make their way into the world and have already spawned numerous copycats. They’re still in the early stages of development, and expectations are high.Those expectations have translated into heady returns for AI-oriented ETFs over the past few years. Despite a lot of hype around AI stocks, only 10 “AI and Big Data” ETFs were available at the beginning of 2023. All of them easily beat the market over the ensuing three years by betting big on stocks like Nvidia NVDA, Microsoft MSFT, Meta Platforms META, and Broadcom AVGO, among others. A typical AI ETF beat the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF VTI by almost 12 percentage points annualized since 2023.Those outsize returns didn’t come easy, and not all the risks baked into AI ETFs have been rewarded. All 10 were markedly more volatile than VTI, causing four to lag VTI after accounting for their greater risk. High volatility severely trimmed the risk-adjusted edge for others, too.AI ETFs possess other risks beyond volatility. Many of them concentrate their portfolios around some of the largest AI-related stocks. A typical AI ETF allocates around half its assets to just 10 stocks, and none of them looks like bargains. The average price/earnings multiple was 30% higher than the broader stock market at the end of December 2025.Don’t forget about the condition of the stock market. Many investors have voiced concern about the market’s overall health. Its average P/E multiple is at an all-time high, and it has never been more dependent on the largest stocks. The chart below illustrates that VTI’s stake in its 10 largest holdings has grown steadily over the past decade, representing about 35% of its portfolio at the end of 2025. Many of its biggest constituents overlap with the largest holdings in many AI-related ETFs.The broader market’s performance is already heavily dependent on the success or failure of stocks tied to AI. Holding an AI ETF just amplifies the bet on the largest and priciest stocks in the market.ProgressHistory shows that there’s a much better long-term bet to make than focusing on the hottest names. The real economic benefits of cars, trains, and planes weren’t in picking the right stocks; it was the massive economic growth that they unlocked across industries. Arguably, logistics companies like UPS and FedEx and their customers benefited more from the advent of planes and trains than the manufacturers of the planes and trains themselves.Telephones, radio, television, and the internet all followed a similar economic progression, and AI appears to be starting an ascent along a similar trajectory. It’s still an open question for what companies and industries will benefit most from this promising new technology.Once in a while, new technologies come along that offer immense potential, but they aren’t fully developed. Companies know that a lot of tinkering and investment are required to fully realize their capabilities; that’s why AI-related spending is already massive and growing. It requires trial and error, but new technologies eventually become useful, and the best become ubiquitous. Businesses adopt them because they can do more with less, grow their revenues, and expand their profits. The best technologies eventually become necessities after much of their commercial value has been unlocked. Could you do your job without an internet connection?The secondary effects are easily forgotten. Other businesses and industries can thrive by supporting the growth and development of new technologies. A lot of steel manufacturers and oil refiners benefited from the success of Ford and GM. In a similar way, energy and utility companies have enjoyed increased demand to power the warehouses of computers necessary to fine-tune AI models.Said another way, many industries prosper when a truly transformative technology comes along, not just the companies directly tied to it. The entire economy benefits. Some of the biggest winners are not necessarily the stocks most closely linked to a technology. Google didn’t invent the internet or internet search, but it found a more effective way to deliver the technology to consumers.Furthermore, not all the companies involved in AI development today will exist or be as important 10 years from now. For every Ford and GM, there were dozens of Cartercars, Deusenbergs, and Stanley Steamers that failed to survive, let alone thrive.AI is just the latest development in a long lineage of technological advancements over the past century or more. It’s still young and requires a lot of investment and tinkering, but it appears to have the same transformative potential as past technologies. It could very easily push the economy forward and improve our lives, but it remains to be seen which companies will benefit most once the dust has settled and AI is fully embedded in our lives and work. Your best bet is to diversify broadly to capture the long-term economic benefits, no matter how they show up.

The good news is that low-income workers taking out hardship withdrawals are still saving, thanks to auto-enrollment.