BUSINESS

The bitcoin price’s long-term moving averages are set to flash a bearish signal soon. That’s good news for the bulls.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh did not make a definitive policy statement on artificial intelligence during his June 17 press conference.He achieved something quieter and perhaps more crucial for Wall Street.Warsh said AI could be integrated into a bigger effort to revamp how the Fed gathers data, analyzes productivity and evaluates the economy in real time. That’s different from suggesting AI will influence interest-rate policy right away.The distinction is important because AI is already showing up in the economy in data centers, power usage, business spending and infrastructure investment. The tougher question is whether the technology will produce sufficient productivity growth to counter those challenges.For now, Warsh’s answer isn’t a rate move.It is a task force.The Fed chief created five task teams on communications, balance-sheet policy, data, productivity and jobs and inflation frameworks. One will examine the Fed’s use of data. Another will study productivity and jobs in an age of transformation, including AI.The question for investors is not whether the Fed has already reached a conclusion on AI.It hasn’t.The larger question is whether Warsh is positioning the Fed to employ AI and other new data tools to make sense of an economy that may be changing faster than old models can capture.“It will really depend on the outcome of the task force which will no doubt be stacked with AI experts and savants. Warsh has been a vocal proponent of introducing AI into Fed models and measures to update data collection systems. This is his soft launch into doing exactly that,” TheStreet’s resident Fed expert Mary Helen Gillespie said.Warsh’s Fed task force puts AI inside the modeling debateWarsh presented the new task forces as a product of a wider examination of the way the central bank carries out monetary policy.Inflation was substantially above the Fed’s 2% aim, said Warsh, but the Fed left the federal funds rate in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% during the June meeting. The most forward-looking signal, however, came following the rate decision when he spelled out the structure of the task force.The data task force could be particularly crucial.The panel would look at new sources of information and changes in methodology that would provide policymakers with more accurate, relevant, up-to-date and actionable information about the economy, Warsh said.That’s where AI transitions from market buzzword to potential Fed infrastructure.The Fed has traditionally looked to basic economic statistics like surveys, inflation data, labor market measures, and national accounts. These tools are still crucial to policy, but they often arrive late and with amendments.Warsh said the Fed needs to look carefully about whether previous data methods are sufficient for the economy policymakers are attempting to comprehend now.Related: Fed’s Warsh leaves markets guessing on rate hikesHe was careful not to overdo the exertions. Asked if he planned to fully revamp the system of national accounts, Warsh said, “In a word, no.”But he also said the Fed would look at government statistics, private-sector best practices and analytical tools enabled by AI to generate better real-time information for policymakers.More Fed:Warsh’s first Fed meeting resets interest rate-cut betsHot May CPI sticks a pin in Fed rate-cut betsGoldman Sachs sends strong message on next Fed rate cutThat’s the safer and stronger tack.Warsh is not arguing that monetary policy has already changed because of AI. He’s leveraging AI to update the Fed’s approach to data and modeling.AI demand is easy to count, but productivity is harder to proveThe big economic debate is whether AI is more about growing demand or supply.That question came up directly during the press conference when Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos asked whether the AI buildout, including capital expenditures, data centers and power demand, was adding more to demand than supply.Warsh’s answer explained the importance of the task force.He said central bankers spend much of their time counting demand because it is easier to see, count, check and revise. Supply, by contrast, often has to be inferred.That distinction is the crux of the Fed’s AI conundrum.On the demand side, we have measures already. Companies are spending on chips, servers, data centers, and electricity and related infrastructure. That investment can raise gross domestic product, bolster business earnings and propel the larger AI trade.Key takeaways from Warsh’s AI task forceJune 17: Warsh announces five task forces, including groups focused on data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks.AI focus: The productivity-and-jobs task force will study new general-purpose technologies, including AI.Near-term issue: AI demand is already visible through data centers, power needs and infrastructure spending.Harder question: The productivity payoff is less certain and may take longer to measure.Investor relevance: Better Fed measurement could eventually affect inflation forecasts, rate expectations and market valuations.There is less confidence on the supply side.If AI makes labor more productive, corporations could produce more without raising prices as much. That might allow the economy to grow faster, without creating quite so much inflationary pressure.But the trick is time.Warsh said AI data centers and related infrastructure are showing up in GDP numbers, but the timing and size of the supply-side lift are less clear. He called it a “race between supply and demand” and said the task committee will investigate exactly the policy consequences.

A quiet Warsh move could remake the Fed’s economic models.China News Service / Getty Images

Wall Street gets a new Fed variableThe message to markets right now is that the Fed has not reached a conclusion on AI.That is the point.The bottom line is that Warsh appears to view AI as critical enough to shift the Fed’s internal conversation about data, productivity, jobs and inflation.It might matter for rate expectations, bond yields, Big Tech valuations and the larger AI trade.If the Fed finally becomes more convinced that AI is boosting supply-side capacity, policymakers may have greater space to tolerate faster growth without presuming inflation will be accelerating.That would be a big deal for investors who have spent years discussing whether the economy can grow faster without pushing the Fed to keep policy tighter longer.But if demand for AI continues to grow faster than productivity gains, the situation may change.More data centers, semiconductors, power infrastructure and labor demand can be a boon to growth, but they can also cause bottlenecks in sections of the economy where supply is constrained.Warsh said he’s still recruiting and finalizing the task groups, with work scheduled to begin in the coming weeks and early framing possibly in the fall.So the names are going to matter on the task force.If the committee is populated with AI experts, economists and data specialists, it could be the first serious indication of how aggressively Warsh wants to integrate AI into the Fed’s measurement process.For the present, Warsh is retaining a cautious official policy stance.But he’s giving AI a seat at the table.That may be the bigger story for Wall Street, not a quick Fed pivot, but the beginning of a fresh attempt to upgrade the tools the central bank employs to evaluate inflation, productivity and growth.Related: Former Fed insiders raise new rate-hike concerns

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.Why we love this dealPerhaps no watch brand has as many loyal customers in every corner of the world as Seiko. The Japanese watchmaking giant has spent over a century building its reputation as a bastion of accuracy and design excellence. The brand was my first foray into the world of luxury watch collecting, and it could be yours too. Thanks to a great deal at Amazon, you could start your watch collection for less than $200, and have a few bucks leftover to buy a new watch case.Originally $177, the Seiko 5 Black PVD Automatic Watch is available at Amazon for just $168. As a seasoned watch collector myself, I can say that this is the kind of watch that gets you plenty of compliments on top of being a stellar deal. It’s sure to get even more once people find out how little you paid for it. Seiko 5 Black PVD Automatic Watch, $168 (was $177) at Amazon

Courtesy of Amazon

Shop at AmazonWhy do shoppers love it?You’re unlikely to find another high-end watch that offers so much upside at such a low price. For starters, this model is part of Seiko’s famed Seiko 5 line. It’s a model family that goes back to 1963, and it’s based on five features that every watch in the line shares, including this one. That includes a day/date feature, automatic movement, a minimum level of water resistance, a recessed crown, and a highly durable case and bracelet. In this specific case, it’s a black PVD-coated case and bracelet over 316 low-carbon (L) stainless steel.The case and bracelet are rustproof and corrosion resistant. What’s more, the aforementioned black PVD coating offers both a stark and impressive look and additional scratch protection. The 50 meters of water resistance allows you to take the watch in the pool or ocean without fearing for internal damage. Speaking of the watch’s internals, it’s powered by an accurate and dependable Japanese automatic movement. Automatic movements are special because they’re designed to run off the movement of your arm. They have an internal rotor that spins every time you move your wrist. This winds a mainspring, collecting energy throughout the day. The mainspring then releases that energy in a controlled manner in the form of a sweeping seconds hand that keeps highly accurate time. It’s a technology that’s been around for decades, and one that allows you to have a watch that never requires a battery. Related: Walmart is selling a smartwatch and fitness tracker that can help get you in shape for 83% offDetails to knowCase diameter: 36 millimeters.Water resistance: 50 millimeters.Material: Black PVD-coated 316L stainless steel.Features: Day/date function window.Amazon shoppers were thrilled with this watch. One called it a “great daily watch,” adding “this works great and looks great…it is a perfect size.”Shop more deals Citizen Promaster Sea Eco-Drive Dive Watch, $290 (was $475) at AmazonBulova Marine Star Series B Watch, $329 (was $575) at AmazonThe Seiko 5 Black PVD Automatic Watch is a great buy for anyone who wants a watch to wear every day that makes them feel special. At just $168, it’s a special deal as well, so it’s best to get yours early, before everyone else gets the memo.

This is the 2nd part of my analysis on Anthropic Claude and its system-wide prompt, focusing on the mental health directives. An AI Insider analysis and scoop.

After nearly two years of declines, alts have run out of sellers and steadied, while bitcoin has dropped hard, sliding back toward $63,600.

Weak volume and fading momentum kept XRP pinned near the bottom of its recent range, with the $1.05-$1.10 area emerging as the market’s key line in the sand.

The newly public company shed close to half of bitcoin’s entire market value in three sessions after announcing its first bond sale. Bitcoin, absorbing the same backdrop, fell less than 1%.

Micron Technology (MU), the largest U.S, memory chipmaker, announced a strategic agreement with Anthropic on Monday that bundles three things together: a technical collaboration on AI memory design, a new multiyear supply contract, and a stake Micron already holds in Anthropic’s funding round.The investment itself is not a recent development. What changed Monday is that Micron put it back in the spotlight, few days before an earnings report.Share of Micron climbed roughly 5% on Monday to a fresh all time high, according to a Seeking Alpha report. The stock is now valued at more than $1.2 trillion, according to Investing.com.Investors appear to be betting that closer ties to one of the largest buyers of AI memory gives Micron steadier demand in a market that has historically swung between shortage and oversupply.Micron’s equity stake predates Monday’s headlineAnthropic closed its Series H funding round on May 28, raising $65 billion at a $965 billion post money valuation, according to Anthropic’s official announcement.Micron joined that round as one of three strategic infrastructure partners, alongside Samsung and SK Hynix, the only companies that manufacture memory at the scale AI training requires.Amazon also contributed $5 billion to the round as part of previously committed hyperscaler capital, according to the same announcement.At the time, Micron’s involvement was one line in a much larger story about Anthropic’s valuation.Monday’s announcement reframes it as the foundation of a broader partnership that now includes shared technical research and a dedicated supply contract.For Micron, owning a piece of Anthropic means its upside is no longer limited to selling chips at a fixed price.That stake also cuts both ways. If Anthropic’s growth slows, Micron is exposed not just through smaller chip orders but through a paper loss on equity in a company that has not yet gone public.Reuters described Anthropic, in its report on the new agreement, as a company preparing for a future public listing, which would eventually give Micron a way to convert that stake into something liquid.

Micron took an equity stake in Anthropic’s $65 billion Series H round in May, then unveiled a supply and research agreement few days before Micron’s Q3 earnings.Bloomberg / Getty Images

The new agreement adds research and supply on top of that stakeBeyond the equity position, Micron and Anthropic agreed to study how memory and storage subsystems perform across AI training and inference workloads, according to Micron’s press release.The work centers on Micron’s high bandwidth memory, DRAM and solid state drives, the three product categories that determine how efficiently a data center can train and run large language models.The companies also signed a separate multiyear supply agreement covering Micron’s data center portfolio, though neither side disclosed pricing or volume terms.Micron has also been using Anthropic’s Claude models internally, deploying them for coding and other automated tasks across its engineering and manufacturing teams, according to the same release.That detail matters less for the stock than the supply contract does, but it shows the relationship runs in both directions.Related: JPMorgan drops blunt verdict on stock market rallyMemory is scarce enough that the timing favors MicronMicron’s high bandwidth memory capacity is sold out through the rest of 2026, according to an analysis by TradingKey.Chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra has told investors on recent earnings calls that AI servers and conventional servers are now competing for the same limited supply of DRAM and NAND chips, a shortage he expects to continue beyond this year.Research firm IDC has gone further, describing the current market not as a cyclical shortage but as what it called a “potentially permanent, strategic reallocation” of global silicon wafer capacity.That backdrop helps explain why analysts kept raising price targets into earnings. Bernstein SocGen Group and Wedbush both lifted their targets to $1,300 this month, while Rosenblatt raised its target to $1,200, according to Investing.com, citing firmer than expected memory pricing and tight supply through 2027.More Micron:Micron stock draws aggressive target reset from 5-star analystMicron gets aggressive stock price target from veteran analystMorgan Stanley makes bold new call on Micron stockMicron reports fiscal third quarter results on Wednesday, with Wall Street expecting $19.72 in earnings per share on roughly $34.4 billion in revenue, according to estimates by Wall St.Chip suppliers are starting to invest in the AI labs they sell toMicron is not the only memory maker that chose to become a stakeholder rather than just a vendor.Samsung and SK Hynix took the same path into Anthropic’s funding round, even though both compete directly with Micron for the same HBM customers, according to Anthropic’s announcement.That overlap shows how much memory suppliers now want exposure to AI lab growth itself, not just the orders that growth generates.For Micron, the bet is that Anthropic’s spending keeps growing faster than the cost of building the capacity to serve it.That is the same bet underlying the stock’s climb past $1.2 trillion in market value.Wednesday’s earnings will test that bet in the near term, but the larger shift, chip suppliers buying into the AI labs that buy from them, is likely to outlast any single earnings report.Related: White House latest verdict flips script on Anthropic

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