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This is a good time to take risk off the table — and these stock-market charts prove it.

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Kharg Island is home to about 90% of Iran’s oil exports, with President Donald Trump saying its targets were ‘totally obliterated.’

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Consumers tend to have a favorite when it comes to their choice of coffee shop, but loyalty is not absolute.”More than 50% of Starbucks’ customers often purchase at its competitors, including Dunkin and McDonald’s, who are also known as ‘roamers’. Dunkin and McDonald’s were also found to maintain a relatively high percentage of roamers of 53% and 38% respectively,” according to a report in the International Journal of Hospitality Management.That means that new players have an opportunity to make headway in the space, something we’ve seen with the growth of emerging players, including 7 Brew and Dutch Bros. Loyalty programs, like Starbucks Rewards; however, these programs do tie consumers to one brand over others, and some customers just like the coffee at one chain over another.This makes a change in branding more than just new signage and a change in loyalty apps. That’s a risk Dutch Bros. has been willing to take in buying the 20-location Clutch Coffee Bar, closing all its stores, and reopening under the Dutch Bros. name.Dutch Bros. closing Clutch Coffee Dutch Bros is accelerating its expansion by converting the 20-location Clutch Coffee Bar into Dutch Bros stores.”We now expect to open at least 181 new system shops, which include the recently completed acquisition of 20 Clutch Coffee Bar locations across North and South Carolina. This conversion opportunity accelerates our presence in the Carolinas and allows us to introduce Dutch love to these communities beginning later this year,” Dutch Bros. CEO Christine Barone shared during the chain’s fourth-quarter earnings call.There’s a risk in changing the chain’s branding, but the two companies share a lot of the same DNA. Clutch Coffee founder Darren Spicer worked at Dutch Bros. and based his chain on its drive-through model.”The general premise for Spicer was straightforward: replicate the drive-thru coffee density he witnessed on the West Coast on the other side. It took five years to open seven locations, and Spicer grinded in the years to come, creating a brand that mirrored many of the culture-first principles Dutch Bros is known for,” according to QSR Magazine.A quick look at Clutch Coffee Bar2018: Clutch Coffee Bar founded in Mooresville, North Carolina by CEO Darren Spicer, a former Dutch Bros manager, according to QSR Magazine.The company focused on a drive-thru coffee model emphasizing speed, energy drinks, and strong community engagement, added QSR.Clutch expanded rapidly across the Carolinas, reaching about 20 locations in North Carolina and South Carolina, according to Nation’s Restaurant News.After the acquisition, Clutch locations are being remodeled and reopened as Dutch Bros coffee shops, reported The New Irmo News.Dutch Bros. Senior Vice President Hyun Jin Cho sees the acquisition as a way to grow faster.”In terms of Clutch, you know, the way we are looking at this, we certainly, to your point on the economics of this, view this as a very productive way of using our capital, deploying capital in acquiring those sites and then converting them, being that they are existing coffee stands. Relatively, you know, lower investment to be able to convert these to Dutch Bros Inc.,” they said.More Retail:Costco sees major shift in member behaviorRetail chain shuts all locations as legal changes hit industryLululemon struggles to reverse concerning customer behaviorBarone shared that her company has been quietly converting smaller operators into Dutch Bros. locations.”So last year, a number of the shops we opened were conversions of other different types of concepts. So this is something that has been in our portfolio for a while, being able to take attractive real estate and turn it into a Dutch Bros Inc. So we will just continue to look for the best real estate opportunities,” she added.

Dutch Bros. uses a drive-through model.Shutterstock

Brand changes come with riskChanging the branding on the Clutch Coffee Bar stores to Dutch Bros. does create some risk, as it could be seen by customers as an invitation to try other chains. It’s also an opportunity to build a stronger connection with customers.“If you can flip that switch in a customer’s head and become the brand that they define their choice of coffee around, their loyalty can be incredibly powerful,” Dale Harris, 2017 World Barista Champion with 13 years of experience with Hasbean and Ozone Coffee, told Coffee Intelligence.In the coffee space, loyalty matters.“Due to the intense competition among international coffee players, brand loyalty has become a strategically critical factor in order for each and every coffee organization to sustainably thrive in today’s marketplace,” according to a study from the International Journal of Hospitality Management.Key findings included:A 5% increase in customer retention subsequently results in 25-75% profit enhancement.Keeping a customer loyal costs a company five times less than attracting new potential ones.Related: Beloved rum, bourbon, vodka brand files Chapter 7 bankruptcy

Exchanges are racing toward blockchain-based equities and 24/7 trading. Institutions, however, fear liquidity and funding risks.

The Toronto Blue Jays veteran is suddenly facing a big role in the tournament after a Los Angeles Dodgers superstar bowed out.

The stock market may be just one bad day away from forcing Washington and Wall Street to act. That is the message Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett sent to clients on Friday, and investors listened.In his weekly Flow Show note to subscribers, Hartnett warned that a drop in the S&P 500 below 6,600, only about 1% below Thursday’s close, would be enough to trigger what he called a “war/oil/Fed/tariff policy response to short-circuit Main St risks.” In plain terms, policymakers would likely be forced to step in.The S&P 500 has shed about 2.8% so far in 2026 and is roughly 5% off its peak. But the combination of soaring oil prices and a deepening Iran conflict has the market sitting on a knife-edge.What BoA investment strategist Hartnett is actually watchingHartnett identified four specific market levels that, if breached, would force some kind of intervention. Think of them as “trip wires.”The four market thresholds to watchS&P 500 below 6,600: A drop here would signal broad market stress and likely prompt a White House or Fed response.Oil above $100 per barrel: Brent crude was already trading just over $100 on Friday, March 13, Investing.com reported. Hartnett recommends fading oil at this level.Dollar index above 100: The DXY traded around 100.3 Friday, its highest since November, squeezing global liquidity.30-year Treasury yield above 5%: The long bond was yielding 4.9% Friday. Hartnett recommends buying Treasuries if yields breach that level.Three of those four trip wires are already at or within inches of their thresholds. The only one not yet triggered is the S&P 500 itself.What a government policy response to flagging markets could actually look likeHartnett outlined what intervention might look like if markets continue to deteriorate. The options are not abstract. Each one has a clear mechanism and a clear beneficiary.Potential policy interventions to lift marketsTariff relief: The White House rolling back or pausing some of its trade levies would immediately ease inflation pressure and lift risk assets.Iran war de-escalation: A ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough would send oil prices sharply lower and restore confidence in global supply chains.Fed rate cuts or bond purchases: The Fed slashing rates or restarting asset purchases would inject liquidity and provide a direct floor under markets. Hartnett noted that June rate cut odds have already collapsed from 100% probability to just 25% as oil tightens financial conditions.

The combination of soaring oil prices and a deepening Iran conflict has the market wobbling.Gray/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Which assets are overbought and which are oversoldOne of the more useful parts of Hartnett’s note is his breakdown of where the crowding is, and where the value might lie once the dust settles.On the overbought side, he flagged gold, semiconductors, metals, European stocks, and bank stocks as assets that have already moved too far too fast and are now selling off. These are the areas where investors piled in as a hedge against instability, and the trade has become crowded.More Tech Stocks:Morgan Stanley sets jaw-dropping Micron price target after eventNvidia’s China chip problem isn’t what most investors thinkQuantum Computing makes $110 million move nobody saw comingOn the oversold side, Hartnett pointed to software, bank loans, and bitcoin as sectors that have already absorbed most of their damage. His view is that these areas could stabilize quickly once policymakers respond.The Magnificent 7 tech stocks and private credit, however, have not yet troughed in his view. That is a notable caveat for investors still holding concentrated positions in megacap tech.The 2008 shadow hanging over marketsHartnett did not stop at the near-term setup. In a separate observation, he drew a striking parallel to the period just before the 2008 financial crisis. He wrote that asset performance in 2026 is “more ominously close” to the price action seen between mid-2007 and mid-2008, a period when oil doubled from $70 to $140 a barrel while subprime tremors were quietly building beneath the surface.The Iran war that began Feb. 28 has already pushed oil prices more than 60% higher this year. Hartnett believes the bigger risk to stocks from rising oil is not inflation itself, but the earnings damage that follows when energy costs bite into corporate margins.His bottom line: Corrections driven by exogenous shocks during periods of excess bullishness end when oversold assets find a floor. That process may already be starting. But if policymakers do not respond in time, Hartnett cautioned, the policy panic levels he outlined may not hold.Related: Bank of America drops blunt message on the economy

Global tensions are increasingly becoming a concern for retailers. Even before the recent Iran conflict erupted, tensions overseas have been fueling economic uncertainty here in the U.S. And no retailer is really immune.The problem is that when geopolitical disputes occur, they can escalate into trade wars, leading to tariffs and supply chain disruptions. This inevitably makes goods more expensive for retailers, who then have to pass the cost along to consumers.That’s something Costco has always gone out of its way to avoid.Roughly one year ago, during Costco’s second quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Ron Vachris said, “It is difficult to predict the impact of tariffs, but our team remains agile and our goal will be to minimize the impact of related cost increases to our members.”Vachris also confirmed that about one-third of U.S. products sold are imported from other countries, and so the company would “continue to rise to this challenge by leveraging our global buying power, strong supplier relationships and innovation.”Middle East tensions could raise costsThe current conflict in the Middle East is already driving oil prices up. And the fear is that the cost of consumer goods will increase broadly due to a rise in energy, transportation, and production costs.Costco admitted during its most recent earnings call that the situation in the Middle East could eventually affect operating costs if disruptions intensify.Related: Costco cuts prices on eggs, butter, other staplesCFO Gary Millerchip said, “The situation in the Middle East could impact fuel costs and shipping schedules if there is instability in the region for a sustained period of time.”So far, however, Costco says the conflict has not significantly disrupted its supply chain. Costco is also well positioned to avoid such disruptions due to the strength of its Kirkland  brand. Plus, the company said it’s willing to source more products domestically as needed to keep prices as low as possible.As Vachris said during the company’s second quarter 2026 earnings call, “At Costco, we always want to be the first to lower prices and the last to raise them.”

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Costco has a big advantage over its rivalsCostco is sometimes criticized for having a limited selection of goods. But in a situation like this, that strategy can actually work to Costco’s advantage.Costco typically limits its inventory to about 4,000 SKU (stock keeping units), whereas a typical supermarket might carry anywhere from 15,000 to 60,000. But this streamlined approach gives the company flexibility to adjust suppliers or product mix when costs change.Another advantage is Costco’s scale. As the company confirmed on its most recent earnings call, it operates 924 warehouse club stores on a global level and has plans to keep expanding. That gives Costco a huge amount of buying and negotiating power. Plus, unlike traditional retailers, Costco can use the membership fee revenue it collects as a cushion, allowing it to avoid massive price hikes when other companies might have to implement them.More Retail:Costco sees major shift in member behaviorRetail chain shuts all locations as legal changes hit industryCostco makes major investment in online shopping for membersLululemon struggles to reverse concerning customer behaviorT-Mobile launches free offer for customers after major lossEven though the situation overseas is volatile, Costco is in a strong position to protect its members from rising costs. And it’s that very ability that could allow Costco to come out a winner at a time when other retailers risk losing customers.Maurie Backman owns shares of Costco.Related: Dollar Tree CEO signals tough times ahead for bargain hunters