BUSINESS

The first of three meetings between Atlético Madrid and FC Barcelona in 11 days will take place on Saturday night with several injury and suspension concerns.

BigBear.ai (BBAI) stock is down about 46% year-to-date and down 24% in the past month alone.That decline has reset expectations just as the company cleared a major financing overhang and cleaned up its balance sheet. With that risk out of the way, attention shifts back to the business itself.Management is pointing to a return to growth in 2026. If revenue starts to recover and margins improve, the stock has room to meaningfully rebound from its current depressed levels.If not, the recent decline may reflect deeper issues with the business rather than just a temporary setback.BigBear valuation snapshotFor those unfamiliar with BigBear.ai, the company provides AI and data analytics software, primarily to government and defense customers. It helps agencies make better decisions using data, with applications in areas like national security, logistics, and intelligence.BigBear makes money through a mix of software and services contracts, with higher-margin revenue coming from its proprietary software products.Market cap: $1.5 billionEnterprise value: $1.3 billionShare price: $3.13Analysts’ avg target price: $5.33 (70% implied upside)2-Year expected annual revenue growth: 11.7%Forward EV/revenue ratio: 9.3xSource:TIKR.comFY2026 rebound is driving the thesisBigBear.ai reported $27.3 million in Q4 2025 revenue, down 38% year over year, and finished the full year at $128 million.After a sharp slowdown in 2025 due to weaker Army program volume and the absence of prior-year work, management is now guiding FY2026 revenue to $135 million to $165 million.The guidance range implies roughly 5% to 29% growth in FY2026, which is a wide spread for a company coming off a 38% decline.As CEO Kevin McAleenan said, “At the start of 2025, we set out to transform our financial foundations to establish a base from which to accelerate in 2026.”Management has pointed to three growth drivers:An Army demand recoveryConversion of bookings into revenueAnd product contributions from Ask Sage and CargoSeer.Army recovery depends on customer activity, bookings conversion depends on execution, and product revenue matters most because it’s the clearest path to improving the revenue mix and driving higher-quality growth.More Tech Stocks:Morgan Stanley sets jaw-dropping Micron price target after eventNvidia’s China chip problem isn’t what most investors thinkQuantum Computing makes $110 million move nobody saw comingIf quarterly revenue improves quickly and tracks toward the $150 million midpoint of guidance, investors might start to underwrite a real rebound for the business.Margin collapse exposed fragile earnings powerThe bigger issue in Q4 wasn’t just lower revenue. Profitability broke down. Gross margin fell from 37.4% to 20.3%, and adjusted EBITDA dropped to negative $10.3 million.That shows how sensitive BigBear.ai’s earnings are to its revenue mix, which is the type of work the company is doing. Some contracts, like software, carry higher margins.Q4 shifted toward lower-margin work. The company lost higher-margin contracts from the prior year, and as a result, earnings weakened even more than revenue.If software like Ask Sage becomes a larger part of revenue, margins should improve, and earnings can scale. If not, higher revenue alone won’t fix the model. Another weak-margin quarter may suggest that the business is still too reliant on lower-margin contract work.Federal AI spending is getting more selectiveThe broader government AI market remains active, but capital is flowing toward companies with proven platforms, deeper procurement ties, and more software-heavy models.Palantir has reinforced that demand exists for mission-focused AI in defense and government, while Leidos and Booz Allen Hamilton continue to benefit from scale and embedded agency relationships.Leidos’s CTO Ted Tanner expanded on the opportunity, saying, “Leidos and OpenAI are harnessing the transformative power of AI to help improve how federal agencies operate.” BigBear’s weak Q4 points to a company that is behind better-positioned peers on execution, procurement depth, or mix.That makes 2026 a referendum on whether BigBear.ai can close part of that gap through better Army demand, stronger bookings conversion, and rising software contribution.

Federal AI budgets are still growing, but capital is concentrating around scale, software, and procurement strength.DNY59 via Getty Images

With federal AI demand still advancing and the debt overhang reduced, BigBear.ai has a cleaner setup to prove its products can translate into revenue growth and better margins. It also has fewer excuses if that does not happen.What could drive BigBear.ai higherStronger federal contract wins improve revenue visibility and validate demandHigher software mix lifts margins and reduces reliance on lower-margin servicesFaster backlog conversion turns bookings into revenue and improves cash flowExpanded defense and intelligence use cases deepen relationships with key agenciesImproved execution narrows the gap with better-positioned peersRising demand for mission-focused AI supports long-term growthWhat could pressure the stockFederal AI spending concentrates with larger, better-established playersContract delays slow revenue growth while costs remain elevatedServices-heavy mix keeps margins under pressureExecution issues limit backlog conversion and weaken investor confidenceCompetition from firms like Palantir, Leidos, and Booz Allen intensifiesNew AI projects fail to scale into meaningful revenue driversKey takeaways for BigBearBigBear.ai starts 2026 with one major problem removed and another now exposed.Growth needs to return, margins need to improve, and software needs to make up a larger share of the business.If that happens, the stock can recover from depressed levels. If not, the reset may reflect deeper issues with the model rather than just a temporary setback.Related: Jim Cramer resets Nio stock outlook after earnings

The Cardano founder says post-FTX politics, flawed design and a narrow U.S.-only approach risk stifling new crypto projects while benefiting established players

President Trump is urging other nations to launch their own missions to control the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would benefit one area of the world the most.

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.Why we love this dealFlorals go hand-in-hand with spring. Whether you’re growing them in your garden or wearing them on a new seasonal outfit, there’s no escaping them. So when Coach Outlet had its latest spring drop, we were excited to not see just one, but multiple new floral designs. In addition to its floral embroidery collection, Coach Outlet debuted a new floral print pattern that’s an almost abstract-like take on the classic spring design. And the best part? It comes in two dreamy pastel colorways. The new floral print pattern isn’t your typical design. Rather bold and obvious, the flowers look very soft and minimal — as if it’s a watercolor painting or an artistic botanical sun print — with the pattern digitally printed onto the leather. It’s available in Wash Yellow with silver hardware and Pale Green with gold hardware, both pastel hues that are perfect for spring and summer. There are various pieces with the new floral print, from the bestselling Nolita 19 shoulder bag to the small bag essential Snap Wallet.Nolita 19 With Floral Print And Bow, $109 (was $195) at Coach Outlet

Courtesy of Coach Outlet

Shop at Coach OutletThere’s a reason why this customer-favorite shoulder bag is available in nearly 20 colors and patterns, and continues to sport Coach Outlet’s latest designs. Compact and made for carrying the essentials, it looks even more adorable in the new spring floral design. One shopper said it’s “perfect for any occasion,” whether it’s a formal event or a casual day out.Mini Klare Crossbody Bag With Floral Print, $149 (was $275) at Coach Outlet

Courtesy of Coach Outlet

Shop at Coach OutletWho doesn’t love a mini bag? Mini crossbody bags, in particular, are that much better, as they give you a hands-free way to carry just the right amount of items. The Mini Klare Crossbody bag does just that, and has a bit of room to spare for other small items. A reviewer called it “a must-have bag,” and since it’s available in both pastel colorways, we’d have to agree.Corner Zip Wristlet With Floral Print, $39 (was $95) at Coach Outlet

Courtesy of Coach Outlet

Shop at Coach OutletJust like the Nolita 19, if there’s a new Coach Outlet color or pattern, you’re likely going to see it on the Corner Zip Wristlet. It’s available in both Pale Green and Washed Yellow, in addition to over 20 other colorways. It’s a great addition to any accessories collection that you can carry on its own or throw in a larger bag. A shopper called it “the perfect wristlet,” saying it’s both luxurious and convenient. Snap Wallet With Floral Print, $69 (was $198) at Coach Outlet

Courtesy of Coach Outlet

Shop at Coach OutletWhen you need a compact wallet to hold your cash, cards, and ID, Coach Outlet’s Snap Wallet is a great choice that combines both practicality and style. It has an outside zip coin pocket, three credit card slots, room for full-length bills, and an ID window. A customer said it’s “small but surprisingly holds a lot,” and they love the “C” charm on the zipper.Coach Outlet’s new floral print pattern is one of our favorites in the latest drop, offering a soft and minimal approach to a tried-and-true spring design.Shop more Coach OutletSunglasses Case With Floral Print, $39 (was $98) at Coach OutletMedium Corner Zip Wallet With Floral Print, $89 (was $218) at Coach OutletLong Zip Around Wallet With Floral Print, $99 (was $318) at Coach Outlet

The company reportedly cited its “current business needs” in its decision.

Analysts think ServiceNow can improve performance later this year as early AI adopters stock up on more credits and as some pandemic-era contracts come up for renewal.

Trump is considering a widely unpopular ground operation in Iran.

In an interview with CoinDesk, the CEO of a the 12-member consortium why Europe is racing to put the euro onchain and compete with dollar dominance in crypto markets.

A strange and potentially dangerous signal is screaming across markets right now. Oil prices are surging. Interest rates remain elevated. And according to Jim Cramer, that combination doesn’t add up.Jim Cramer is a former hedge fund manager who now runs the CNBC Investing Club and is the host of CNBC’s “Mad Money”. Cramer, who is also a co-anchor of CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” and the co-founder of TheStreet, warns of elevated oil prices and positive interest rates.Over the years, Cramer has helped investors invest smarter and build long-term wealth in the stock market. In a tweet on 30th March, 2026, Cramer said.“What matters is the price of oil and WTI is at $101… Interest rates only positive.” His short conclusion? “Oil or rates, one of the other, is wrong.” That’s not just a casual observation. It’s a warning about how markets may be misreading the economic picture.Why rising oil and rates send conflicting signalsAt first glance, both moves might seem logical. But together, they create tension.We have surging oil prices. As per Trading Economics, WTI crude is now above $104 as of March 30th data. In fact, that’s a record monthly surge of more than 50% in March. Brent is also pushing hard. Past $112. This typically signals inflation pressure and supply disruptions, especially amid escalating Middle East tensions.At the same time, higher interest rates are meant to cool demand and slow the economy. Those two forces don’t usually coexist for long.And that’s where the problem begins. When both rise together, it creates a setup economists often associate with stagflation. Why? It’s a mix of slowing growth and persistent inflation.Cramer has repeatedly pointed out that higher rates increase borrowing costs and economic growth comes under pressure. So if both signals persist, something has to give.

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Markets face growing pressureThe backdrop makes this conflict even more important. Oil prices have surged sharply in March, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict. WTI crude has climbed above $104, marking one of its strongest monthly moves in years.That surge is actually already feeding into inflation concerns.Recent data shows that import and export prices are rising sharply. U.S. import costs surged in February, marking the largest monthly increase in nearly four years. MoreEconomy:Goldman Sachs resets oil-price bets as war rages onHow Fed meeting impacts mortgage rates, housing marketIMF drops blunt warning on US economyAs per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Import prices rose 1.3% in February, following gains of 0.6% in January and 0.1% in December. This marked the largest monthly increase since March 2022, when prices jumped 2.9%.On a yearly basis, import prices climbed 1.3% from February 2025 to February 2026, representing the biggest annual rise since February 2025, when the index increased 1.7%.At the same time, recession probabilities are increasing across Wall Street. And now, markets are battling a difficult question: Will central banks tighten policy further or hold back to protect growth?That’s where the Federal Reserve comes in.Powell pushes back on rate hike fears despite oil spikeWhile markets had started pricing in the possibility of higher rates, Jerome Powell recently delivered a different message. Speaking live to an economics class at Harvard on March 30th, Powell said the Fed is not rushing to hike rates despite rising energy prices.Instead, he emphasized that inflation expectations remain well anchored and that reacting too quickly to an oil shock could backfire. In fact, Powell made a key point. Raising rates now could slow the economy after the oil shock has already passed.Related: Fed Chair Powell sends frustrating message on future interest-rate cutsThat’s why the Fed is choosing to look through short-term energy volatility rather than respond aggressively.“Inflation expectations do appear to be well anchored beyond the short term, but nonetheless, it’s something we will eventually maybe face the question of what to do here,” Powell said as per CNBC. He later continued to say, “We’re not really facing it yet, because we don’t know what the economic effects will be, but we’ll certainly be mindful of that broader context when we make that decision.”Markets reacted quickly as well. Expectations for a rate hike dropped sharply following Powell’s comments, with traders now largely expecting the Fed to hold steady. Also, Powell believes that the current interest rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% is appropriate.What this means for stocks and investorsSo, who’s “wrong”? Oil or interest rates? That’s still playing out.Cramer argues that markets can’t sustain this divergence forever. Historically, oil has often acted as a leading signal. Meaning equities and broader markets may eventually adjust if energy prices stay elevated.In practical terms, that creates a tough environment for investors.If oil remains high:Inflation could stay elevatedConsumer spending could weakenStocks could face renewed pressureBut if rates stay steady or fall:Financial conditions could easeRisk assets could stabilizeThe current tension could resolve without major damageAll of that leaves the market undecided. At least for now. And Cramer’s warning isn’t about predicting which side is right. It’s actually about recognizing that this imbalance won’t last.Related: Jim Cramer drops unexpected take on Microsoft stock