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BUSINESS
Wells Fargo resets its S&P 500 target for rest of 2026
Wells Fargo has cut its year-end S&P 500 (SP500) price target to 7,300 from 7,800, pointing to risks it did not see coming when the year began.The revision came from equity analyst Ohsung Kwon, who cited the ongoing U.S.-Iran war and lower-than-expected tax returns as the main drivers. The new target still implies roughly 12% upside from current levels. The S&P 500 is trading around 6,343, down about 7.7% year-to-date.”We’re incorporating the emerging risk that wasn’t our base case heading into the year,” Kwon wrote in a note to clients. “Tax returns are also tracking lower than expected.”Why Wells Fargo moved its targetThe Iran conflict, which began Feb. 28 with the U.S.-Israeli operation codenamed “Epic Fury,” was not part of the bank’s original 2026 outlook. It has since introduced a risk variable that Kwon said demands a recalibration.Related: JPMorgan resets S&P 500 price target for rest of 2026Brent crude futures have risen 37% since the start of the war, and the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. topped $4 for the first time since 2022. The energy shock has complicated the inflation outlook and, with it, the Fed’s path on rates.Wells Fargo used an average of prices from Feb. 28 and March 30 to set its revised base, smoothing out the impact of recent selling.A macro setup Kwon calls “lose-lose”Kwon described the current environment as a “lose-lose” situation ahead of key economic data. Strong data could push the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. Weak data could stoke stagflation fears.More Wall StreetBillionaire Dalio sends 2-words on Fed pick WarshTop analyst bets these stocks will boost your portfolio in 2026Bank of America sends quiet warning to stock market investorsWells Fargo’s inventory-based model also flagged second-half inflation as a growing risk, suggesting upward price pressure is building relative to current levels.Key risks the bank is watching:The Iran conflict was not in Wells Fargo’s base case and has added an unpriced risk layer to equities.Tax returns are tracking below expectations, weighing on the consumer spending outlook.The bank’s inventory model points to building inflation pressure in the second half of 2026.For the first time, Wells Fargo’s war pricing model shows stocks pricing in more risk from the conflict than from oil itself.Markets pricing war more than oilOne of the more striking findings in Kwon’s note: Wells Fargo’s proprietary war pricing model showed that stocks are now pricing in a bigger risk from the conflict than from oil prices. That is a first, according to the bank.The Nasdaq 100’s forward P/E ratio has contracted 29% since its peak. Roughly one-third of S&P 500 stocks now trade at least one standard deviation below their five-year average forward P/E.Kwon sees that as a potential opportunity, noting the tech sector is more immune to oil supply shocks than other parts of the market and may offer an attractive entry point.
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Wells Fargo stays structurally bullishDespite cutting the target, Wells Fargo is not turning outright bearish. The firm’s PRSM model, which tracks Profits, Rates, Sentiment, and Macro, still points to a 14% return over the next 12 months.Earnings per share forecasts remain unchanged at $315 for 2026 and $365 for 2027. The bank says corporate earnings are expected to stay resilient even as the macro backdrop grows more complex.Five reasons Wells Fargo stays bullish long-term:The oil shock is more contained than prior historical episodes.A meaningful valuation reset has already occurred across equities.U.S. energy independence gives it an advantage over international peers.Free cash flow from major tech companies may be inflecting higher.A restocking cycle is gaining momentum amid lower tariffs and supply chain disruption.Equity inflows have held upOne data point that stood out to Kwon: equities have kept drawing inflows since the war started. That is a departure from past geopolitical shocks, which typically triggered outflows.”Equities have surprisingly seen consistent inflows since the war began, a stark contrast to previous episodes of volatility,” Kwon said, adding that investors appear to be hedging rather than fully exiting.In March, analyst price target upgrades also outnumbered downgrades across the broader market, signaling continued confidence in corporate earnings despite the conflict.”We believe a lot has been priced into stocks already,” Kwon wrote. “However, other than a firm resolution, we don’t see many upside catalysts.”Related: Barclays just made a surprising call on the S&P 500
Goldman Sachs sends surprise message to stock market investors
Goldman Sachs struck a rather surprisingly constructive tone on the stock market just before April begins. As per reporting from Seeking Alpha, the bank’s analysts feel the market’s recent sell-off, exasperated by the Iran War, may have, in fact, improved the near-term setup for investors. Following last week’s punishing pullback, positioning has eased, and expectations have effectively been reset, laying the groundwork for a more balanced foundation. That shift puts a lot more emphasis on the upcoming Q1 earnings season, which could prove a critical stretch for markets. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 closed at 6,528.52, according to Yahoo Finance, up 184.80 points, or 2.91%, in an incredible relief rally. However, even after that jump, the index was in the red by 329.95 points, or 4.8%, from 6,858.47 on Jan. 2, 2026. The comeback rally was driven by hopes for Iran de-escalation, easing oil prices, and a tremendous rebound in tech stocks. The bullishness builds on my recent coverage of Morgan Stanley’s Chief Equity Strategist, Mike Wilson, who highlighted that the S&P 500-to-gold ratio jumped to around 1.47, suggesting that capital has started to rotate back into stocks.Goldman’s latest call essentially builds on that, reinforcing a far more constructive setup heading into earnings season.
Wall Street gauges shifting sentiment as geopolitical tensions and earnings season reshape the stock market outlookPhoto by Bloomberg on Getty Images
SPY — State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF trust returns (proxy for the S&P 500)1W: -2.18%.1M: -6.55%.6M: -3.77%.YTD: -5.99%.1Y: 15.37%.3Y: 58.80%.5Y: 62.41%.
Source: Seeking Alpha.
What Goldman Sachs sees for stocks in AprilGoldman Sachs’ take is that the recent disruptions may have actually set things up well for the stock market, with a far more balanced distribution of outcomes heading into April.More Wall StreetBillionaire Dalio sends 2-words on Fed pick WarshTop analyst bets these stocks will boost your portfolio in 2026Bank of America sends quiet warning to stock market investorsThat matters because investor expectations aren’t as high as they once were, with fewer investors expecting AI bellwethers to deliver another eye-popping guidance.Now the focus is squarely on the Q1 earnings season, and Goldman is looking for For investors, that shifts the focus squarely onto the first-quarter earnings season. Goldman is looking for 12% S&P 500 earnings growth this year.That assumes the Middle East conflict is winding down soon rather than continuing for a prolonged disruption.Related: Nvidia’s $2 billion bet reveals its next big targetAt the same time, Goldman warns that instead of chasing headline beats, investors will focus more on what companies say next.It’s important to note that elevated energy prices and supply chain disruptions will continue to pressure margins, especially outside tech. In that environment, guidance becomes the real test. If we see company CEOs sound much more confident despite the economic headwinds, we could see the recent pullback as the start of a deeper break.That should give investors a lot more confidence to scoop up quality names on weakness, especially those that are still delivering steady demand, strong margins, and upbeat forecasts.Wall Street raises S&P 500 earnings outlookBarclays: The bank bumped its 2026 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $321 from $305, slapping a higher year-end index target.FactSet / John Butters: for Q1 2026, the S&P 500 earnings growth estimate was revamped to 13% from 12.8% at Dec. 31; FactSet’s CY 2026 growth is forecasted at 17.1%.Related: Nvidia stock sends valuation signal for first time in 13 yearsUBS Global Wealth Management:UBS lifted the S&P 500 2026 EPS forecast to $280 from $275 in May 2025, then to $290 from $285 in August 2025.Wells Fargo Investment Institute: raised its 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $265 in July 2025 as earnings impressed.Oppenheimer / Stoltzfus: restored its S&P 500 earnings estimate to $275 from $265 in July 2025.The April earnings reports that could set the tone for stocksAll eyes are on April’s earnings calendar, which is likely to matter a lot more than usual amidst a shakier macro backdrop. That said, here are five key reports that stand out for their coverage of credit, consumer spending, AI demand, chip sector momentum, and healthcare costs.JPMorganChase (April 14): Arguably the tone-setter of the season. Naturally, investors will be all ears over what the management says about credit quality, loan demand, trading activity, and the overall health of the U.S. economy.Bank of America (April 15): The report should help confirm whether the banking read-through is broadening. Investors will be looking intently at the data on card spending, net interest income, and commentary on equity markets.TSMC (April 16): For tech investors, this report is perhaps the biggest to drop in April. Like always, the report will offer a clear read-through on AI-led chip demand, broader electronics recovery, and semiconductor capex trends.Netflix (April 16): Netflix’s earnings report will offer clarity on consumer demand and ad-supported monetization.UnitedHealth Group (April 21): The report is essentially a non-tech check on cost pressures and earnings durability. If we see guidance hold up here, it would support the case for a broadening trade.S&P 500 earnings growth over the past five yearsGiven Goldman Sachs’ sharp take, it’s important to examine how S&P 500 earnings growth has trended over recent years.The figures for 2020 through 2024 reflect actual results, while 2025 is essentially the latest full-year estimate based on FactSet data.2020: S&P 500 earnings fell 10.2% year-over-year.2021: S&P 500 earnings grew 47.9% year-over-year.2022: S&P 500 earnings grew 4.1% year-over-year.2023: S&P 500 earnings grew 1.1% year-over-year.2024: S&P 500 earnings grew 11.0% year-over-year; FactSet said actual bottom-up EPS was $243.02.2025: FactSet’s CY 2025 estimate was 12.1% year-over-year, and a later FactSet-based report showed full-year EPS at $272.91 as of Jan. 30, 2026, which implies nearly 12.3% year-over-year versus 2024.
Source: FactSet Insights.
Related: JPMorgan delivers blunt message on interest rate cuts
Nike expects more falling sales, as stock sinks amid worries turnaround is not working
Nike reported quarterly results that were a bit better than Wall Street’s expectations, but investors still didn’t appear convinced of the sneaker giant’s turnaround efforts.
Powell sends message on U.S. economy and AI-related job loss fear
The economy looks steady on the surface. Inflation expectations seem steady, and the Federal Reserve sees no urgent need to shift policy.In March, the FOMC decided to leave the interest rate unchanged. In a recent talk at Harvard University, Fed chair Jerome Powell said the rates are in a “good place.”“We feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out,” Powell said on March 30. He added that raising rates now could have negative effects on the economy later. But Powell pointed to something more important. He said the U.S. is experiencing weak job creation despite a low unemployment rate, as artificial intelligence is reshaping how companies hire and operate. Powell says the U.S. economy remains “dynamic and productive”Powell said he is well aware of the current situation for students who are graduating but struggle to find jobs. He said it’s a time of very low job creation, with AI in play and changes in immigration policy, even as the unemployment rate remains low.”You’re coming out in the business cycle at a time when getting hired is a little bit challenging,” Powell told students, “There’s also probably something more longer-term, more secular, that’s happening and around technology and AI.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in mid-May.
Still, Powell noted the U.S. economy “is just incredibly dynamic and productive” compared with other countries. He said that since World War II, U.S. productivity has grown at roughly twice the pace of Europe, and that higher productivity is key to long-term growth in compensation and earnings.”Technology always comes from the United States… I’m very optimistic about the medium and longer term,” Powell said. Major tech companies won’t stop cutting jobs that can be automatedIn February, a fictional report from Citrini Research stirred concerns about AI. It imagined a 2028 scenario where an AI boom leads to sharp losses in white-collar jobs and eventually triggers a stock market crash.But the fact is, the report isn’t just imaginary. For example, megacap tech firm Meta Platforms (META) has been cutting jobs while ramping up AI spending. Related: Morgan Stanley sends clear message on semiconductor stocks after selloffThe company recently laid off hundreds of employees across teams, including Reality Labs and recruiting, as part of cost-cutting tied to AI investments, Reuters reported March 25.In the long term, Meta is reportedly considering cutting up to 20% of its workforce, potentially affecting around 15,000 to 16,000 jobs, as it pours billions into AI infrastructure and looks to boost efficiency, according to the Reuters report.Speaking on concerns that AI could lead to job losses, Powell urged people to embrace the productivity gains from large language models.”I think you’re in a situation where you need to invest the time to really master the use of these new technologies… but there’s no denying it’s a challenging time to enter the labor market. It may take some patience, but in the longer term, this economy is going to give you great opportunities,” he said.Powell also believes the next few years will likely see AI begin to affect certain roles, particularly in middle management and back-office functions.”It shouldn’t have those kinds of effects on people who can use AI well,” he said, adding that the impact will start to become more visible soon.”Major US companies are all looking at what they can do, and the truth is they can take out a lot of jobs that can be automated by a very smart large language model. They just can and they will, because their competitors are doing it and they can’t afford to have higher costs than their competitors,” Powell said.Tech firms, from startups to tech giants, are now “enforcing” their employees to use AI in their work.Related: Cathie Wood sells $36 million of megacap tech stockThose companies are increasingly measuring AI use as part of productivity, the Wall Street Journal reported. In some cases, it’s even showing up in performance reviews, and for certain roles, candidates aren’t considered unless they can prove they know how to use AI.”What’s that going to mean for you? It may not mean that much. It depends on what you wind up doing. You may stay in school a little bit, and you may do something that is going to create new jobs over time,” Powell told Harvard students.”If you look back through history, this has been going on for a couple of hundred years… since the loom was invented, all the people who were doing weaving are out of business. But in all cases, it has raised productivity and living standards.” Related: Costco sees shift in member behavior
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Aldi shoppers get very good news
For the last two years, Aldi has been the fastest grocery store in the United States. In 2025, the retailer opened 105 new locations, according to real estate company JLL’s Grocery Report 2025. While the grocery chain is privately held, and therefore doesn’t release annual earnings, it did reveal that those 105 new locations brought in upwards of 17 million new customers.“One in three U.S. households shopped at ALDI this past year,” Aldi CEO Atty McGrath said in a statement. “And in 2026 we’re focused on making it even easier for customers to shop our aisles first.” In March, Aldi finally unveiled one of the ways it plans to make those aisles easier to shop — a brand new website and mobile app.Aldi unveils a new mobile appAt the end of March, Aldi announced that it had partnered with Instacart to fully redesign its mobile app and website. The new ecommerce platforms will provide a more seamless customer experience, better ways for shoppers to find and curate their favorite items, and meal-planning solutions by way of shoppable recipes. The app and website will also be powered by Instacart’s Storefront Pro platform and fulfillment services.”Shoppers define value in more ways than one — often by saving both time and money,” Aldi U.S. COO Dave Rinaldo said in a statement.”As customers look for more flexibility, our partnership with Instacart enhances the Aldi online experience, giving the 1-in-3 U.S. households that shop our aisles another convenient way to get their groceries when and how they want,” he continued.Aldi and Instacart’s partnership began in 2017. Today, Aldi customers can receive their grocery orders in as little as one hour thanks to the digital marketplace.
Aldi has partnered with Instacart to refresh its mobile app and website, making it easier for shoppers to stock up.Image source: Shutterstock
Aldi’s budget-friendly focusShopping at Aldi isn’t just convenient, it’s also incredibly budget friendly. The chain consistently ranks as one of the most affordable grocery stores in the country, and, by its own estimates, saves U.S. shoppers a collective $8.3 billion a year.“Our stores are, quite literally, designed to save you money,” Aldi CEO Jason Hart said in the company’s 2025 Leadership Report. “By operating smaller locations, placing an emphasis on private labels and maintaining our famous quarter cart system, we offer award-winning quality at lower prices than the competition every day, even during economically challenging times. “We know Aldi can save shoppers up to 36% on an average household’s shopping list,” Hart continued. “For a family of four, that’s nearly $4,000 a year.”More retail:87-year-old retail grocery giant lays off 100s in store closingsCostco shares key news on inflation beyond gas pricesDollar General makes big change that might upset customersSome 49% of Americans find it “somewhat difficult” to afford food right now, a March report from Lending Tree found. In order to offset rising grocery costs, 90% of Americans surveyed said that they have changed how they shop for groceries, with paying closer attention to grocery prices and choosing store brands over national brands among the most preferred tactics.For the cost-conscious, Aldi is the perfect solution. More than three-quarters of Aldi shoppers agree that Aldi’s private label brands are just as good as national brands, the Leadership Report says. Additionally, 88% of shoppers say that buying groceries at Aldi helps them stay within (tight) budgets.Aldi is expanding in 2026These data points make Aldi’s planned expansion even more exciting.The grocery retailer says it plans to add 180 new stores in 2026, including expansion into Maine and Colorado, two states it currently has no presence in. The store openings are a part of Aldi’s larger plan to have 3,200 U.S. locations by 2030.In order to support these new locations, Aldi will also be opening three new distribution centers, and expanding an existing center.“The next wave of ALDI growth is powered by its customers,” the store’s announcement said. “The loyalty built in the first 50 years in the U.S. has helped transform ALDI into more than just a grocery store and instead into a movement. Customers line up hours before grand openings, fans proudly wear head-to-toe ALDI gear, and loyal shoppers share product recommendations in dedicated Facebook groups, some with more than 3.8 million members.”New Aldi locationsThere are currently plans for 180 new Aldi stores in 2026. While not all locations have been announced, shoppers can expect to see stores in: Portland, MaineDenver, ColoradoColorado Springs, ColoradoPhoenix, ArizonaLas Vegas, NevadaThe Southeast: 80 existing Southeastern Grocery stores will be converted into Aldi locations
Source: Aldi
Related: Walmart launches genius new way for customers to shop
Today’s Wordle #1747 Hints And Answer For Wednesday, April 1
Looking for help with today’s New York Times Wordle? Here are some expert hints, clues and commentary to help you solve today’s Wordle and sharpen your guessing game.
Investors brace for more stock-market volatility, as wild first quarter ends with biggest rally in a year
Last-day gains didn’t stop the S&P 500 from tallying its worst first quarter since 2022 as the Iran conflict, private-credit worries and the AI ‘scare trade’ weighed on stocks in March.
Bitcoin enters the public bond market as Moody’s gives a first-of-its-kind crypto deal a rating
A New Hampshire state authority is set to issue a first-of-its-kind bitcoin-backed bond with a Ba2 rating, marking an early test of how crypto can function as collateral inside traditional public finance markets.