Zerohedge

Update(1707ET): In an unusual moment, during a White House round-table on Antifa, Secretary of State Marco Rubio interrupted things to inform President Trump of something quite urgent. Whether a deal is really imminent or not, it still made for good theater, at the very least. Trump soon after this moment left the meeting, announcing “I have to go now to try to solve Middle East problems.”

🚨 BREAKING: Secretary of State Marco Rubio just handed President Trump a note regarding a MAJOR foreign policy development

“I’ve been given a note by the secretary of state saying we are VERY close to a deal in the Middle East! They will need me pretty quickly, so I can take a… pic.twitter.com/11VMx6fAIb

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 8, 2025

Not long before that interruption, he had speculated that if the Egypt-hosted negotiations achieved a deal, he would likely travel to the Middle East. He even named Gaza as a potential destination, but then said it would most likely be Egypt.

“Peace for the Middle East, that’s a beautiful phrase, and we hope it’s going to come true, but it’s very close, and they’re doing very well,” Trump told reporters.

Does this mean he’s getting ready for a major announcement? There have been ‘false starts’ on Gaza peace before (many times, actually)… so will this be the one to stick?

* * *

Axios last week reported that President Trump recently told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop being so “f*cking negative” and “take the win” after Hamas voiced its initial agreement to free the 48 remaining hostages (both dead and alive) as part of the US 20-point peace plan for Gaza.

However, in more recent remarks Trump has denied ever saying this, or clashing with the Israeli leader on the pending agreement. “No, it’s not true. He’s been very positive on the deal,” Trump said of Netanyahu.

Asked specifically whether he has any red lines for Hamas in new round of negotiations that kicked off Monday in Egypt, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he does: “If certain things aren’t met, we’re not going to do it,” he said.

Commenting on the potential for private vs. public friction further, Israeli media concludes the following:

Trump at times has avoided criticizing Netanyahu in public, even as reports have mounted about his private frustration with the Israeli premier, including during a tense phone call last week in which the Axios news site reported the US president responded angrily when Netanyahu said Hamas’s ambivalent response was “nothing to celebrate.”

US envoy Steve Witkoff is in Egypt joining the talks Wednesday, as is Trump’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner, and Erdogan too has sent Turkish officials, which may amount to too many cooks in the kitchen. The Turkish delegation is led by spy chief Ibrahim Kalin. 

Top Hamas leader Taher al-Nunu has offered a generally positive assessment of where thing stand so far. “The mediators are making great efforts to remove any obstacles to the implementation of the ceasefire, and a spirit of optimism prevails among all parties,” he said.

The two warring sides have exchanges lists of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners to be released in the major swap. But even if this is agreed to, the question of ending the war, and a future Gaza where Hamas is disarmed, remains a big open one.

The Egyptians and Qataris have signaled from the start that there isn’t enough in the plan for Hamas. People need to step back and recognize that on the core issues, the sides are as apart as they have ever been regardless of Pres Trump’s pressure. https://t.co/GkJgkYo9s0

— Steven A. Cook (@stevenacook) October 7, 2025

In Tuesday comments in the Oval Office, Trump said “So the primary guarantee is, once this deal happens, if it does happen — look, they’re in negotiations right now.”

“We are going to do everything possible. We have a lot of power, and we’re going to do everything possible to make sure everybody adheres to the deal,” he added. However, it’s notable that Trump stopped short of explicitly vowing that Israel would be barred from resuming military operations. For now, media reports say “progress” is being made in 

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Nearly 80 percent of Americans favor the deportation of immigrants who are in the United States illegally and have committed crimes, and a clear majority favor deporting all immigrants who are here illegally, according to a new poll.

President Trump’s policy of deporting criminal illegal aliens is his second most popular policy according to the Harvard Caps/Harris poll, just under lowering prescription drug prices for Medicare recipients and low income patients.

The survey was conducted online within the United States on October 1-2, amid loud and often violent left-wing protests outside of ICE facilities in cities like Portland and Chicago.

The vast majority of respondents—78 percent—said they favored “deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have committed crimes.”

Even among Democrats, 69 percent said they favored the policy, while 77 percent of independents and  87 percent of Republicans do.

“Deporting all immigrants who are here illegally” garnered 56 percent support among all respondents.

The majority of Republicans and Independents favor the policy by 76 percent and 54 percent respectively, while only 36 percent of Democrats do.

“President Trump’s efforts to Make America Safe Again are very popular!” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt commented on X, Tuesday, in response to the poll.

The surprising results come as Democrat politicians in blue cities and states continue to resist the president’s deportation efforts, with far-left Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson on Monday signing an executive order designating “ICE-Free Zones,” and governors JB Pritsker  and Gavin Newsom ) suing the Trump administration to block National Guard deployments in Illinois and California.

A new study has tried to assess the total amount the United States has spent on military aid to Israel since the Oct.7, 2023 Hamas terror attack.

The US has provided Israel with $21.7 billion since the start of the Gaza War, policy analyst and senior Quincy Institute research fellow William D. Hartung wrote in a paper for the Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University.

“This figure does not include the tens of billions of dollars in arms sales agreements that have been committed for weapons and services that will be paid for and delivered in the years to come,” the paper, which is part of the “Cost of War” project, reads. 

And adding significantly in US costs was defending the Red Sea against attacks out of Yemen, which were more significant during the first year of conflict, Washington has further spent between $9.65 and $12.07 billion. This figure includes operations in “the wider region sparked by or in support of Israeli military operations” since Oct.7.

The conflict with Iran in June was a big one as well, where hundreds of US anti-air and defensive missiles were rapidly expended as inbound Iranian drones and ballistic missiles pummeled Tel Aviv and other locations in retaliation for the ‘surprise’ Israeli attack which started it all.

Adding all of these figures, the total stands at between $31.35 and $33.77 billion in “two years of post-10/7 wars” – the fresh analysis concludes.

The bulk of the cost has involved the US providing Israel with tens of thousands of bombs and other weaponry. While this trend is nothing “new” – it does underscore that Israel might quickly find itself in big trouble without its defense being propped up by Washington.

This trend was highlighted in an awkward portion of a Tucker Carlson interview with Matt Walsh:

Daily Wire host Matt Walsh stated that any country reliant on US taxpayers shouldn’t be a country.

Tucker Carlson pointed out that Walsh was suggesting Israel shouldn’t exist, to which Walsh declined to respond.

Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/JMpgp5v4za

— AF Post (@AFpost) April 30, 2025

Among the latest in Trump-approved arms deals, last month $6 billion arms for Israel was announced which will be paid for with US military aid.

This includes, as the WSJ reported at the time, $3.8 billion for 30 AH-64 Apache helicopters and $1.9 billion deal for 3,250 infantry assault vehicles.

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

I am so glad that I am not a young adult looking for a job in this very difficult economic environment.  

Every month, federal bureaucrats tell us that the unemployment rate in this country is low, but at this point everyone knows that the numbers that they give us are fake.  The reality of the matter is that it is now “the toughest time in years” to find a good job in the United States, and that is particularly true for our young people.

According to Mark Mitchell, a Rasmussen Reports survey that will soon be released will show that only 48 percent of U.S. adults under the age of 30 currently have a full-time job…

As the results of the last presidential election demonstrated, Rasmussen is typically very accurate.

So this is an extremely alarming development.

Vast numbers of our young adults are working low-paying part-time jobs right now because that is all they can get.

But as the employment market gets even tighter, there will even be intense competition for those jobs.

Day after day, large companies are slashing more high-paying positions.  For example, Exxon Mobil just announced that it will be eliminating 2,000 jobs…

Oil giant Exxon Mobil is preparing to cut thousands of jobs worldwide in a corporate reshuffling.

A spokesperson for Exxon confirmed to Barron’s on Tuesday that the company plans to cut 2,000 jobs, representing 3% to 4% of the energy company’s global workforce.

But that is nothing compared to what has been going on in the tech industry.

Through September 15th, big tech companies had laid off 166,000 employees so far this year.

Sadly, I expect to see the pace of layoffs accelerate in the months ahead because so many industries are deeply troubled at this moment.

In recent days, we have been getting some extremely alarming warning signs from the auto industry…

The warning signs are stacking up. First Brands, a manufacturer of filters, brakes, wipers, and lighting systems, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Sunday night.

Its collapse comes just two weeks after subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings went bankrupt and shut down, and follows June’s Chapter 11 filing by Marelli, a supplier for Nissan and Chrysler.

Experts told the Daily Mail that these bankruptcies are another part of an auto industry flashing danger signals that could spill into the broader economy.

I have said this before, but I will say it again.

If you have a job that you highly value, hold on to it as tightly as you can, because finding a new job would not be easy.

Concerns about our rapidly deteriorating employment market caused U.S. consumer confidence to fall “sharply” this month…

Consumer confidence fell sharply in September on growing worries about the labor market.

The consumer-confidence index dropped to 94.2 in September from a revised 97.8 in the prior month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. This is the lowest level since April.

Nobody can deny which way things are going.

And now on top of everything else we could have an extended government shutdown on our hands…

The federal government will likely shut down Oct. 1 after President Donald Trump and congressional leaders failed to reach a funding compromise on Sept. 30. The partial shutdown will likely start at midnight on Oct. 1.

The federal government will run out of money at the end of the fiscal year, unless members of Congress overcome partisan differences and agree to pass a funding bill, USA TODAY reported.

The federal government has closed down 21 times, with a total of 161 days since 1976. The pending shutdown primarily concerns health care spending.

This is not going to be good for the economy at all.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, it is being projected that approximately three-quarters of a million federal employees will temporarily be “furloughed” for the duration of the shutdown…

The Congressional Budget Office estimated on Tuesday that about 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed under a government shutdown, and the total daily cost of their compensation would be around $400 million. Furloughed employees receive back pay at the end of shutdowns.

The analysis came in a letter to Sen. Joni Ernst, an Iowa Republican who requested the figures. CBO noted that the number of furloughed employees could “vary by the day” due to some agencies opting to furlough more employees if a shutdown drags on, while others could bring back employees who were initially furloughed.

Of course any federal employees that are furloughed will return to their jobs once the shutdown ends.

But the same thing will not be true for approximately 100,000 federal workers that will be quitting their jobs this week as part of the Trump administration’s “deferred resignation program”…

The Trump administration is set to oversee the largest mass resignation in US history on Tuesday, with more than 100,000 federal workers set to formally quit as part of the latest wave of its deferred resignation program.

With Congress facing a deadline of Tuesday to authorize more funding or spark a government shutdown, the White House has also ordered federal agencies to draw up plans for large-scale firings of workers if the partisan fight fails to yield a deal.

So now the millions of Americans that are already searching for work will have a lot more competition for a steadily dwindling number of high-paying job opportunities.

As I have discussed in previous articles, there are some people that have applied for hundreds of jobs in recent months without any success at all.

In fact, one 64-year-old man that has decades of experience in accounting has been getting up at 3 AM in the morning to work on his job search, but after many months he hasn’t had any luck.

If you visit YouTube or TikTok right now, you can find thousands of videos of people complaining about the economy.

As I have carefully documented, the U.S. economy has been moving in the wrong direction for many, many years, and now our economic slide threatens to become an economic avalanche.

Of course our economic problems are accelerating at a time when our world is facing one unprecedented crisis after another.

I am extremely concerned about the months directly ahead of us.

Yes, conditions are not good now, but the truth is that what we are currently experiencing is not even worth comparing to what is eventually coming.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Update (1540ET):

Ford shares fell slightly in late trading after Reuters reported that Ford Motor will pause production next week at its Dearborn, Michigan, auto plant, which builds the F-150 Lightning electric pickup. The shutdown is linked to a September 16 fire at Novelis’s aluminum plant in Oswego, New York, a major supplier of sheet aluminum used to make the truck’s body.

As detailed in our previous report below, the blaze severely damaged Novelis’s hot mill, disrupting sheet aluminum production that won’t come back online until early 2026. 

Reuters said details about Ford’s planned shutdown of the EV truck plant came from union official Nick Kottalis, who heads the Dearborn Truck and REVC operations. He confirmed the stoppage planned for next week. 

Earlier, Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally wrote in a note to clients, “We believe this is largely a Ford issue, at this time being, although we are continuing to check knock-on effects for [Stellantis] and Toyota as well,” adding, the disruption at the Dearborn plant will generate a $500 million to $1 billion hit to Frod’s EBIT. 

Shares of Ford have slumped more than 8% since Bloomberg reported on Tuesday how Novelis’s aluminum plant disruption will likely affect Ford.

*  *  * 

A devastating fire at a major aluminum plant in New York in mid-September is set to roil the U.S. auto industry and could even disrupt production of Ford Motor’s F-150 pickup trucks, according to a new Wall Street Journal report. 

The Novelis aluminum mill in Oswego, New York, suffered a fire on September 16 that destroyed the building housing the hot mill, rendering the plant inoperable until at least early 2026. This part of the facility is where sheet aluminum used by the auto industry is produced. 

The plant supplies about 40% of all aluminum sheet used by U.S. automakers, making it a very critical production node for America’s auto industry. WSJ noted that Ford is the mill’s largest customer and primarily uses the lightweight industrial metal for its top-selling and most profitable model, the F-150 pickup.

Shares of Ford in New York were hammered on the news by midday, down 7%, marking the worst intraday decline in eight months. 

WSJ cited industry analysts who warned the impacts of the mill’s closure are widespread: 

Novelis produces more than 350,000 metric tons of sheet aluminum annually for the automotive industry, according to industry analysts. Around a dozen automakers get aluminum from Novelis, including Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Volkswagen and Jeep maker Stellantis, according to a regulatory filing.

Kaustubh Chandorkar, an aluminum-industry analyst, said this incident “represents a serious question for the production of F-150 because that’s the aluminum that comes out of Oswego.” He pointed out that the automaker switched the F-150’s exterior skin from steel to aluminum about a decade ago. 

“Since the fire nearly three weeks ago, Ford has been working closely with Novelis, and a full team is dedicated to addressing the situation and exploring all possible alternatives to minimize any potential disruptions,” a Ford spokesperson stated.

Novelis, owned by India’s Hindalco Industries, is preparing to mitigate production losses in the U.S. by sourcing the metal from overseas plants in Europe, Brazil, and South Korea. However, a 50% tariff on imported aluminum complicates things.

This incident could trigger one of the most severe supply shocks for North American automakers in years. All eyes are on Ford’s upcoming earnings call for more details on the situation, as well as on its Dearborn Truck Plant and Kansas City Assembly Plant, for any signs of slowing production that would only signal snarled supply chains. 

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It’s odd to consider, but a recession could flip our bullish outlook on bonds to bearish. It’s unusual because typically, inflation drops during a recession, leading to lower yields and higher bond prices. While we believe that if an economic downturn or recession occurs soon, the immediate effect on bonds will be favorable. However, the bigger question in our mind is how steep a decline in yields we might see.

While many factors will ultimately influence the answer, the primary constraint on a decline in yield may be the government’s response to a recession. In 2020 and again in 2021, the government issued checks to the public to stimulate economic growth. These checks, along with other large-scale fiscal spending and supply chain shutdowns, led to the highest inflation rates since the early 1980s. Although it’s unlikely that the next recession will face supply constraints like those during the pandemic, we worry that another round of fiscal stimulus, including direct payments to the public, could drive inflation higher. Moreover, grossly negligent fiscal deficits could further spur the bond vigilantes to pressure yields higher.

Some of our readers, upon hearing this concern, have asked us how Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) can protect them in such a situation. To answer their question, we review recent history and compare an actual TIPS to a non-inflation-adjusted Treasury bond (nominal bond) before, during, and after the 2022 inflation surge. Additionally, we provide an overview of TIPS to help you better understand their mechanics and when they might offer better returns than nominal bonds.

TIPS vs Nominal Bonds 2020-2025

In our opinion, a great way to help readers become better acquainted with TIPS is to illustrate how TIPS have performed over the last five years in comparison to a typical fixed-coupon non-TIP US Treasury bond (nominal bond).

To accomplish this, we selected a TIPS and a nominal bond with nearly identical maturities and issuance dates. Both bonds, detailed below, mature in October 2025, providing a complete performance picture.

TIP 

• Cusip: 91282CAQ4

• Coupon: 0.125%

• Issuance Yield:  -1.32%

• Issue Date:  10/15/2020

• Maturity Date:  10/15/2025

Nominal Bond

• Cusip: 91282CAT8

• Coupon: 0.250%

• Issuance Yield:  0.33%

• Issue Date:  11/2/2020

• Maturity Date:  10/31/2025

At issuance, the TIPS yield was -1.32% while the nominal bond yield was +0.33%. Therefore, at that time, the implied inflation rate, otherwise known as the breakeven inflation rate, for the next five years was 1.65%. Had the actual inflation rate over the next five years been 1.65%, the total return on the TIP would have been identical to that of the nominal bond at +0.33%. This calculation is based on the yield to maturity of -1.32% plus the inflation benefit of +1.65%.

It turns out inflation was almost 3% more than what the market expected. CPI, the index used for TIPS calculations, has averaged 4.43% since the bonds were issued. Thus, the yield on our TIP bond was not the -1.32% yield to maturity at issuance, nor the expected 0.33%, but 3.11% (-1.32% + 4.43%).  Investors who bet that actual inflation would exceed inflation expectations were rewarded for choosing TIPS over nominal bonds.

The graph and table below show the total returns of both bonds. Total return includes the coupon payments, the inflation factor, and the price changes from issuance to maturity.

TIPS Mechanics

TIPS are debt securities issued by the U.S. government. Like most U.S. Treasury securities, TIPS have a specified maturity date and coupon rate. However, unlike other Treasury bonds, the principal value of TIPS changes in response to inflation. The so-called TIPS inflation factor is multiplied by the par value to determine the principal value. But, even if inflation is negative, the principal will never drop below the bond’s original par value (100).

The dollar amount of the coupon payment is not constant, unlike nominal bonds. For TIPS, it is the coupon rate times the inflation-adjusted principal value. However, unlike other Treasury bonds, the principal value of TIPS varies with changes in the inflation rate. In our example above, the factor increased from 1.00 at issuance to 1.246 at maturity. As a result, the final coupon payment was 24.6% larger than the initial coupon payment.

Breakeven Inflation, Not Yield To Maturity

When comparing TIPS to other bonds, investors should focus less on the yield to maturity. Instead, the breakeven inflation rate is far more important.

For example, as we mentioned earlier, even though the initial yield to maturity was -1.32%, the yield at maturity for the TIPS ended up being +3.11%, not the -1.32% it was at issuance. The yield to maturity at issuance and at maturity for nominal bonds is always the same.

The breakeven rate is simply the yield difference between TIPS and nominal bonds with the same maturity date. If realized inflation over the life of a TIPS is less than the breakeven rate, the investor earns a lower return than if they had bought a nominal bond with the same maturity. Conversely, as we showed earlier, in our example, if inflation exceeds the breakeven rate, the TIPS investor earns a higher return than a nominal Treasury bond.

Current Environment

Currently, the yield on a five-year TIPS and a nominal Treasury bond is 1.15% and 3.65% respectively. Thus, the breakeven inflation rate is currently 2.50%.

For some market context, consider the following estimates of inflation for the next five years:

• University of Michigan Consumer Survey- 5 Year Inflation Expectations is currently 3.70%.

• The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations median inflation expectation is 2.90%.

• The Cleveland Fed projects 2.32%

• The Fed’s FOMC current long-range inflation projection is 2.00%.

As an investor choosing between a 5-year TIPS and a nominal bond, the key question to ask is whether the CPI will average more or less than 2.50%.

Keep in mind that the answer might change during a recession. Therefore, TIPS could appear much more appealing than nominal bonds for those who believe the government will boost inflation with heavy fiscal spending.

Summary

Markets have a long history of assuming the future will be just like the past. Until 2020, the market assumed inflation would be benign. Over the last five years, that assumption has fallen apart, as we illustrated in our example. However, looking forward, we must assess whether the recent high-inflationary period will persist, or will the sub-2% inflation of the pre-pandemic era reassert itself?

In relation to this article, the answer to the question above may depend on whether or not a round or multiple rounds of checks are written to the populace to combat a recession.  

President Donald Trump is hosting a White House roundtable with independent journalists who have experienced Antifa’s violence firsthand. In addition to journalists and influencers, Seamus Bruner, the lead researcher for Peter Schweizer’s Government Accountability Institute, will also be at the table to discuss dark-money-funded NGO networks that are fueling chaos across America.

The roundtable discussion is scheduled for 3 p.m. EST and comes amid renewed Antifa attacks on ICE facilities in Portland and other crime-ridden sanctuary cities. Over the past decade, Democrats and left-wing groups have normalized assassination culture by labeling Trump and his supporters as “fascists” and “Nazis.” That dangerous rhetoric has fueled an alarming wave of nihilistic accelerationism among extremist “woke warriors,” culminating in horrific incidents such as the transgender mass shooter at a Catholic Church in Minneapolis and the political assassination of Charlie Kirk last month. The Kirk assassination placed radical leftist groups at the center of discussion for White House officials.     

“For too long, Antifa has ravaged great American cities while ineffectual Democrat leaders turn a blind eye — and most in the media have gone right along with them,” White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Fox News Digital Wednesday, adding, “Some reporters have been brave enough to blaze their own trail and report the facts rather than go along with the Fake News Groupthink.”

Fox News Digital reports that the roundtable will feature Trump delivering remarks before hearing from Cabinet members and independent journalists. These cabinet members and administration officials include Attorney General Pam Bondi, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, FBI Director Kash Patel, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller, and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. 

Independent journalists slated to join the roundtable include Nick Sortor, Cam Higby, Jonathan Choe, Andy Ngo, Katie Daviscourt, James Klug, Savanah Hernandez, Nick Shirley, Brandi Kruse, and Julio Rojas. 

Jonathan Choe wrote on X, 

I’m heading to the White House with a group of independent journalists for what’s being called a “Roundtable on Antifa.” We are about to brief President Trump on how these domestic terrorists operate and it could help federal authorities disrupt their covert network. What a time to be alive. 

HAPPENING NOW: I’m heading to the White House with a group of independent journalists for what’s being called a “Roundtable on Antifa.”
We are about to brief President Trump on how these domestic terrorists operate and it could help federal authorities disrupt their covert… pic.twitter.com/mUbL57OecT

— Jonathan Choe (@choeshow) October 8, 2025

Bruner, the lead researcher for Peter Schweizer, is expected to share new details about dark-money–funded NGOs backed by foundations such as the Rockefeller Foundation, the Arabella Network, Tides, and Soros, along with foreign-linked funders like Neville Roy Singham, who have fueled unrest across the country. 

Bruner’s briefing to Trump will build on the New York Times’ report, citing a Capital Research Center report, that “Soros’ Open Society gave $80 million to pro-terror groups“…

Here’s a preview…

🚨The beginning of the end for Chaos, Inc.?
The Government Accountability Institute has mapped how non-governmental funding networks intersect with protest and activist movements across the US. The chaos and unrest spreading across this country, especially the ongoing anti-ICE… pic.twitter.com/IQlYwAKWuW

— Seamus Bruner (@seamusbruner) October 8, 2025

This will be music to Stephen Miller’s ears, as the White House official recently declared war on the radical left, vowing to “disrupt” and “dismantle” the groups sowing chaos nationwide.

Watch Live:

. . . 

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

“Blue Horseshoe Loves Gold and Bitcoin”

Suddenly the likes of Goldman and  JP Morgan are talking about this and the mainstream press are framing it as “the so-called Debasement Trade”

Bitcoiners, of course, have been talking about this for, well since the beginning.

Except, it’s not a “trade.”

The trade du jour lasts for a couple weeks or a few months – then it starts getting referred to as “a crowded trade” and then some new theme emerges and all the hot-money rotates into that.

Less than two weeks ago a finance guru I’m aware of (I won’t name him) sold 90% of his Bitcoin and crypto positions (via IBIT and ETH) “due to bearish MACD crosses and support breaks”. 

Bitcoin has since run to successive new ATHs.

As I’ve long said, Bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work. (I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion).

It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold:

what do you call this pic.twitter.com/qiWgG0bcGk

— Mark E. Jeftovic (@MarkJeftovic) October 6, 2025

To be fair to that finance influencer, I don’t follow him enough to know if he maintains separate core Bitcoin stack in self-custody, and these moves are just referring to his trading activities, as distinct from long term holds. He apparently rotated into TSLA and silver. He’s also since followed up, acknowledging that Bitcoin ran to fresh highs, but he still expects a 40% to 50% decline in cryptos over the next year because of that MACD crossover. That said, he sold his TSLA and went back into Bitcoin (which has since dropped about $4K  )

I don’t know if he’ll be proven right or wrong about a 50% drop  – what I do know, and something I found out the hard way right when I was about to launch The Bitcoin Capitalist Letter, was that trying to pick the intermediate tops and bottoms when it came to Bitcoin was a fool’s errand.

You end up getting whipsawed. It sure looks like I’m watching it happen to this guy right now.

The advice I’ve been giving to my subscribers over the years, both for Bitcoin and the stocks we hold in our portfolio has always been:

• Don’t try to time or trade the intermediate tops

• Whenever Bitcoin (or one of our holdings drops) we ask ourselves:

  • Is the underlying thesis intact?

  • If yes: the only decision is whether to buy more or hold through

  • If no: then you exit the position, at the moment your thesis is invalidated, regardless of the price.

• Beyond that – exit when your own personal financial goals are met.

That’s it,  basically the entire Bitcoin Capitalist playbook right here 

What got me thinking about all this today was all these headlines we’ve been seeing lately about “The Debasement Trade”.

This has been so obvious to Bitcoiners (and before that, goldbugs), for so long, that I didn’t really “clue in” to the fact that our entire long-term thesis is finally in the process of being mainstreamed right now.

Mainstream establishment analyst wakes up to what we have been talking about for 5 years. In fact, some of us even wrote books about it! @elerianm (had to do a screen shot because he blocked me). Proof that the elites are late and are not even here yet. pic.twitter.com/oxxOKClRpi

— Lawrence Lepard, “fix the money, fix the world” (@LawrenceLepard) October 2, 2025

Gold and BTC hitting all-time highs together is sending a signal.

Bond yields going up even though central banks are cutting rates, is sending a signal.

Stonks are hitting levels that make the .com bubble look like a bombed-out value play.

Why?

Because these aren’t trades anymore.

It’s capital flight.

*  *  *

The Bitcoin Capitalist Letter is our premium service for Bitcoin macro and the future of fintech. Try a special deal for Bombthrower readers here »
Sign up for the Bombthrower Mailing List here and get a free copy of The Bitcoin Treasuries Playbook.
Follow me Twitter/X or Nostr: npub1elwpzsul8d9k4tgxqdjuzxp0wa94ysr4zu9xeudrcxe2h3sazqkq5mehan

Since the last FOMC meeting (when The fed cut rates by 25bps with one dissent for 50bps on Sept 17th), gold has gone to the moon, stocks are higher (as is the dollar) while bonds are down modestly…

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, at his post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell characterized the rate cut as a risk management decision, responding to meaningful downside risks to the labor market, but stressed that he does not feel the need to move quickly on rates.

Despite the lack of data (due to the government shutdown), the labor market is cooling, and now policymakers are turning their attention to that side of the mandate (though we note that housing data saw a huge upside surprise while soft survey data since the FOMC meeting has weakened)…

Powell said that moving rates down slightly supports a more neutral policy stance and balances risks to employment and inflation. 

The government shutdown is seen as complicating the Fed’s data-dependent policy approach, with key employment and inflation releases (including weekly jobless claims, September payrolls, and CPI reports) delayed; analysts say this could cloud judgment for the October FOMC meeting, increasing uncertainty over further rate cuts amid the Committee’s divided views on inflation, GDP growth, and labor market resilience.

Interestingly, the odds of a 25bps cut in Oct (29th) has risen from 75% to 95% since the last FOMC meeting while the odds of an additional cut in December has slipped to just above 80%…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed Chair emphasized a meeting-by-meeting approach, guided by incoming data, and noted that markets are pricing in a path of cuts, but the Fed is focused on the data rather than market expectations. Current market expectations are for 44bps of cuts in 2025 (unchanged since the meeting) and 63bps of cuts in 2026 (hawkishly lower than the 73bps at the meeting).

Powell has spoken again after the FOMC meeting and said the Committee will continue balancing high inflation risks against a slowing job market in upcoming rate decisions, maintaining flexibility rather than a preset path.

So, what does The Fed want us to know it was thinking during the meeting?

Almost all participants supported 25bps cut to Fed funds rate at the September meeting.

“Most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 16-17 meeting.

One participant preferred a 50bps rate cut at last month’s meeting.

Some noted financial conditions suggested policy may not be particularly restrictive, those participants judged a cautious approach to future policy was warranted.

“A few participants stated there was merit in keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at this meeting or that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes said.

“Around half” of Fed officials saw another two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 (which we already knew from the Dot Plot).

Most participants judged the downside risks to employment had increased, upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased.

The record of the meeting also showed “a majority of participants emphasized upside risks to their outlooks for inflation.”

A few participants noted the standing Repo facility would help keep the Fed funds rate in the target range and ensure money market pressures would not disrupt ongoing quantitative tightening.

Fed staff revised up the GDP growth projection for 2025 through 2028.

Equity prices continued to rise over the intermeeting period and stood very close to record highs despite the recent weaker-than-expected employment reports.

A few participants commented that the agricultural sector continued to face headwinds because of low crop prices and high input costs.

Read the full minutes below:

After yesterday’s ugly 3Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $39 billion in 10Y paper (technically a 9 Year, 10 Month reopening of cusip NT4), and the reception was again rather disappointing. 

The note priced at a high yield of 4.117%, up from 4.033% in Sept, but except for that one month, it was the lowest since Oct 2024. The auction also tailed the 4.114% When Issued by 0.3bps, following last month’s stop and was the 2nd tail in the last 8 auctions.

The bid to cover dropped from 2.65% to 2.478%, which while not the worst in the past year wasn’t too far off, and was well below the 2.57 six-auction average. 

The internals were also ugly, with Indirects (aka foreign bidders) plunging from 83.1% to 66.8%, which also was below the six-auction average of 73.7%. And with Directs taking down 24.1%, or the highest in 11 years…

… Dealers were left with a modest 9.1%, below the recent average of 10.0%, but above last month’s record low of 4.2%.

Overall, this was a subpar and disappointing 10Y auction, but it could have been worse, which is why while yields moved by 1-2bps higher across the curve, pushing the 10Y to 4.125%, they are well off yesterday’s session highs.