THE NEWS

California’s delayed, over-budget high-speed train from Los Angeles to San Francisco is running fast only in one direction: Rising costs to even get rolling, which are now estimated to be $126 billion.”Today, we estimate with the right optimization just over $125 billion,” California High Speed Rail Authority board member Anthony Williams told CBS’s “60 Minutes” on Sunday. “I think $126 billion is the current estimate for that.”That is nearly four times the $33 billion price tag presented to voters in 2008, making the long-delayed project a black eye for Democrat-run California, derided as the latest political example of “waste” in deep-blue America and a “train to nowhere.””We’re now in 2026: There are no trains; there’s no track laid; it was a complete bait and switch,” Rep. Vince Fong, R-Calif., told “60 Minutes,” saying the project “needs to stop.”NEWSOM TOUTS CALIFORNIA’S NUMEROUS LEGAL FIGHTS WITH TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IN FINAL STATE OF THE STATE”The California High-Speed Rail nightmare is the probably quintessential example of government waste and mismanagement.”California’s long-troubled high-speed rail project is facing renewed scrutiny after state Transportation Secretary Toks Omishakin acknowledged that many of its critics have a point.”There were mistakes made,” Omishakin told CBS. “Some of the criticism on this project I think are very fair.”TRUMP ADMIN UNCOVERS ‘STAGGERING’ $8.6 BILLION IN SUSPECTED CALIFORNIA SMALL BUSINESS FRAUD”I don’t think the voters fully understood and neither did we in the public sector what it was going to take to actually get this project delivered,” Omishakin added.Taking aim at California Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom, President Donald Trump called California’s project “the worst cost overrun, I’ve ever seen,” a statement he he has in the past reserved for Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve Building in Washington, D.C.”This administration is working to usher in a Golden Age of Transportation,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told CBS in a statement. “That vision includes high speed rail and we’re exploring opportunities to efficiently build that infrastructure in America.NEWSOM’S FAILED LEADERSHIP HAS LET CALIFORNIA BECOME A LAND OF FRAUD AND SCAMS”What this administration won’t stand for is boondoggle projects like Newsom’s Train to Nowhere that wasted billions in taxpayer dollars yet delivered nothing to the American people,” Duffy said. “Under President Trump, America is building again. We defunded Newsom’s disaster and created the first Trump Infrastructure Dividend. Those dollars will now actually fund critical projects that enhance safety on rail networks across America.”Newsom himself cast doubt on the full San Francisco-to-Los Angeles plan in 2019, and the project now faces a funding gap of roughly $90 billion.”For $10 billion, Elon Musk put 300 rockets in orbit; for $11 billion, the state of California has built 1,600 feet of elevated rail with no rail,” Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar said in 2024.State officials say they remain confident more money can be found to dump into the project, but for now California’s high-speed rail stands as a costly symbol of ambition, delay, and deep public skepticism.’THE DAILY SHOW’ ROASTS GAVIN NEWSOM ON HOMELESSNESS, HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN SATIRICAL ‘LEADING MAN’ VIDEO”The ultimate 494 miles of building this out without the federal government’s help will be challenging: There’s no doubt about that,” Omishakin said.Nearly two decades since the start of the project, no track has been laid, and the only major visible progress is on a Central Valley segment between Bakersfield and Merced, according to the report.The project’s earliest projected opening is now 2033, far later than originally promised. Critics, including Bakersfield’s Fong, a member of the House Transportation Committee.CALIFORNIA IS BROKE, BUT IT’S NOT TOO LATE FOR THE REST OF US”The business plan that was put out in 2008 was very theoretical,” Fong said. “You know, ‘This is what we think is gonna happen.'”And it became very clear that they didn’t have the specifics worked out.”Fong has sought oversight and accountability on the waste, including 597 change orders that have cost more than $2.3 billion alone as of November 2025, which is nearly 7% of the initial $33 billion project estimate.”Taxpayers deserve full transparency and accountability,” Fong wrote in a statement in February. “The high-speed rail nightmare is a glaring example of structural mismanagement.”Reckless, repeated contract amendments have squandered resources and precious tax dollars. Hardworking California taxpayers cannot afford to let this continue. This project should be canceled before even more money and time are wasted.”

FBI Director Kash Patel is allowing the FBI to Bury the Seth Rich case or does he even know what’s going on? Attorney Ty Clevenger has been working on the … Read more
The post EXCLUSIVE: Did FBI Director Kash Patel Allow FBI to Bury Seth Rich Case or Does He Even Know What’s Happening? appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

“We Must Be Clear-Eyed”: Harris Calls To Oppose New SCOTUS Nominees “Before They Happen”

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Former Vice President Kamala Harris is rallying Democratic donors to oppose  “additional justices” that might be nominated by President Donald Trump “before they happen.”

Harris is heralding the fundraising by Josh Orton, president of the dark-money group “Demand Justice” (made infamous for its campaign to get Justice Stephen Breyer to resign). Demand Justice has pushed a radical agenda, including court packing.

In a post on X, Harris highlighted a New York Times article on the “liberal organization” “preparing a multimillion–dollar effort to oppose potential Trump Supreme Court appointees before they happen.”

Orton announced that “the project would cost $3 million to start and $15 million more if vacancies occurred.” The group expressly cited the possibility of Justices Clarence Thomas (77) and Samuel Alito (76) retiring.

Harris called upon people to contribute, posting that :

“We must be clear eyed about what is at stake with the Supreme Court right now. We cannot allow Donald Trump to hand pick one, if not two, additional justices. The nation’s highest court must be stopped from becoming even more beholden to him.”

We must be clear eyed about what is at stake with the Supreme Court right now. We cannot allow Donald Trump to hand pick one, if not two, additional justices. The nation’s highest court must be stopped from becoming even more beholden to him.https://t.co/RF8GJYwptz
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) April 3, 2026
Harris reportedly supports court packing and could use radical groups like Demand Justice to push through an expansion of the Court to produce an immediate liberal majority if Democrats take power.

Harris is right about one thing.

This is an clear-eyed, remorseless strategy on the left to remove an obstacle to an equally radical agenda.

Years ago, Harvard professor Michael Klarman laid out a radical agenda to change the system to guarantee Republicans “will never win another election.” However, he warned that “the Supreme Court could strike down everything I just described.” Therefore, the court must be packed in advance to allow these changes to occur.

Likewise, Democratic strategist James Carville explained how this process of how the pack-to-power plan would work:

“I’m going to tell you what’s going to happen. A Democrat is going to be elected in 2028. You know that. I know that. The Democratic president is going to announce a special transition advisory committee on the reform of the Supreme Court. They’re going to recommend that the number of Supreme Court justices go from nine to 13. That’s going to happen, people.”

The rhetoric for this renewed push for court packing and war chests on the left remains entirely unconnected to the actual record of conservatives on the Court, who have been repeatedly attacked by President Trump for voting against major cases by the Administration. From the tariffs decision to the expected birthright citizenship ruling, the conservative justices have routinely voted against the Administration.

Moreover, the vast majority of opinions on the Court remain unanimous or nearly unanimous. The ideological split on the Court is only present in relatively few cases each term. While those cases admittedly have significant impacts, this is not a rigidly or robotically divided court in most cases. Indeed, liberal justices have pushed back on the left calling for court packing or describing the Court as conservative or ideological.

Yet, Harris continues to rally donors and voters with claims of an “activist” court.

What is most striking about the “clear-eyed” leadership of Harris is that her model for a new justice appears to be the only Biden nominee, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. Both conservative and liberal justices have publicly criticized Jackson in past opinions. Jackson has lashed out at her colleagues while adopting analysis that would effectively gut areas like First Amendment jurisprudence.

Many of us have found Jackson’s opinions to be unnerving and unhinged. However, liberal groups and Harris would like to replicate her approach to jurisprudence — suggesting not only a packed court but one populated by unrestrained jurists.

For her part, Justice Jackson shocked many by effectively endorsing Harris in her presidential run. Jackson publicly praised her nomination on ABC’s The View as “historic” and something that “gives a lot of people hope.”

With the millions being raised and radical groups positioning themselves for a court-packing push, there are many who see a second Harris nomination as a cause for “hope.”

For the rest of us, it is not just “clear-eyed” but unblinking dread at what could await this country if this strategy succeeds in the coming years.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/06/2026 – 08:35

Brigadier General Majid Khademi (Photo: WikiCommons)
Iran’s top intelligence figure inside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Majid Khademi, has been killed in a targeted early-morning airstrike.
Iranian state media confirmed Khademi’s death Monday, though initially offered few details.
Reports indicate Khademi was killed during coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting high-value regime assets in Tehran, part of an ongoing campaign to dismantle Iran’s military leadership from the top down.
The IRGC also confirmed the report, stating that Khademi had been “martyred” in the strike.
AP reported:
Israel and the United States carried out a wave of attacks on Iran on Monday, killing more than 25 people, and Iran responded with missile fire on Israel and its Gulf Arab neighbors. U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz loomed as mediators circulated a new ceasefire proposal.
Explosions rang out in Tehran and low-flying jets could be heard for hours as the capital was pounded. Thick black smoke rose near the city’s Azadi Square after one airstrike hit the grounds of the Sharif University of Technology.
Among those killed in one of the attacks was the head of intelligence for Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, Maj. Gen. Majid Khademi, according to Iranian state media and Israel’s defense minister.
Iranian missiles hit the northern Israeli city of Haifa, where two people were found dead in the rubble of a residential building, and searchers looked for two more.
Khademi was one of the regime’s most powerful intelligence operators, overseeing counterintelligence, internal security, and surveillance operations used to crush dissent and coordinate foreign threats.
Khademi had only recently ascended to lead the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, a feared entity tasked with rooting out dissent, suppressing opposition, and defending the regime from both foreign and domestic threats.
Before taking the top post, Khademi served as head of the IRGC’s Intelligence Protection Organization, where he was responsible for safeguarding the regime from infiltration and espionage.
His career also included leadership roles within Iran’s Defense Ministry intelligence units, making him a central figure in Tehran’s security architecture for years.
The post IRGC Intelligence Chief Majid Khademi Eliminated in Precision Strike appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

Futures Rise, Oil Drops On Report Of Ceasefire Push

US stock futures rose, but were off session highs (and lows) and crude oil dipped as the bipolar market focused its attention on a report of a push to secure a potential ceasefire in the war in Iran, following a reversal in those exact same hopes late last week. As of 8:00am ET S&P 500 futures added 0.1% in light trading after the Easter holiday, reversing an earlier loss of as much as 0.8%, but also off session highs. Nasdaq futures tose 0.4% with all Mag 7 stocks higher mostly higher. Several markets in Europe and Asia were still closed. WTI crude was traded near $110 a barrel, just off session lows, after it opened just shy of a post-wary high of $115. The dollar weakened. Ten-year Treasury yields held near 4.34%. Focus this week (outside of Iran): FOMC minutes on Wednesday, PCE Thursday, and CPI Friday. LEVI reports Tuesday night and DAL Weds morning. On the calendar for today: US ISM Services @ 10am (est 54.9, last 56.1), Trump to speak at news conference @ 1pm. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla +1.4%, Meta +1.2%, Alphabet +0.9%, Microsoft +0.8%, Amazon +0.5%, Nvidia +0.5%, Apple +0.1%)

Boot Barn (BOOT) gains 2.2% as Jefferies raised its recommendation on the apparel company to buy from hold as recent selloff presents an attractive re-entry point on the stock.
Carvana (CVNA) falls 1.7% as BofA Global Research downgrades the online used-car retailer to neutral from buy citing recent macro and industry developments.
Rocket Cos. (RKT) is up 2.3% after Barclays raised the recommendation to overweight from equal-weight following a recent share decline.
Twilio (TWLO) gains 3.1% as Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold citing greater conviction in the role the firm will play in the voice AI tech stack.
Tyson Foods (TSN) gains 1.8% as as Piper Sandler upgrades to overweight from neutral citing potential near-term catalysts in beef and chicken.
In corporate news, Nvidia partner Hon Hai reported a 30% rise in quarterly sales, roughly inline with consensus estimates, a sign of sustained AI demand. OpenAI’s COO is shifting into a new role to lead special projects and report directly to CEO Sam Altman. Novo Nordisk CEO sees huge upside to weight-loss market and drugmakers should focus on widening access, according to an interview with the FT. Paramount is in talks to secure signed equity commitments of close to $24 billion from three sovereign-wealth funds to back its takeover of Warner Bros, according to the WSJ. 

Weekend news centered on Trump’s aggressive threat/deadline to Iran tomorrow which doesn’t indicate a quick path to de-escalation, although the president said he would destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if no deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz by 8pm tomorrow.  That was followed by an Axios report that the US/Iran/regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire, however a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said “no rational person” would agree to the proposal. Additionally, there are reports that 15 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz the past 24 hours with Iran’s permission which is helping sentiment.

Otherwise, Israel said it killed IRGC’s intelligence chief and Trump will hold a press-conference today at 1pm EST.  

“This mix of coercion and negotiation leaves the market without a stable reference,” said Sergio Avila, senior market analyst at IG Group in Madrid. “The rebound makes tactical sense, but it doesn’t yet signal a solid improvement in the macroeconomic and financial outlook.”

Traders have been seizing on any headlines that may affect sentiment as the Iran war stokes inflation concern. Also helping bolster market sentiment were signs that a few ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz.  Last week, a French container ship and a Japanese-owned tanker were confirmed have made the transits. As well, two tankers carrying liquefied natural gas from Qatar appear to be attempting to exit the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, with the move being closely monitored as a successful transit would mark the first exports to buyers outside of the region since the war started.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson thinks US stocks are bottoming out, recommends adding exposure to cyclical and quality growth where earnings remain strong, valuation compressed and sentiment is negative. 

On Friday, the BLS reported that nonfarm payrolls added 178K jobs in March, and substantially higher than consensus of 65k. The hot print reduces urgency for Fed cuts and Anna Wong expects payrolls to pick up steam through June, reflecting increased leisure and hospitality hiring as the US hosts the soccer World Cup, and a cyclical rebound in the freight sector.

In private credit, investors see a crisis as a contained, but credible, tail risk rather than an imminent shock, according to the latest Markets Pulse survey. CLOs and loan indexes are flagging software credit losses, raising the risk of ugly surprises in first-quarter finance sector earnings starting next week. 

In politics, Trump asked Congress to enact a $2.2 trillion budget for discretionary programs, seeking a massive increase in defense spending, while also renewing his push for steep cuts to domestic agencies. 

Meanwhile Trump, in renewing his threats to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, told Axios that he would be “blowing up everything over there” if Iran doesn’t make a deal. Trump said he plans a news conference at 1 p.m. local time on Monday and posted about a Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline, without offering details.

Looking ahead to economic data this week, traders likely focus on CPI for March release on Friday, with a 1% increase expected – the sharpest one-month advance since 2022 — after the Iran war pushed gas prices at the pump up by about $1 per gallon.

European markets closed for Easter Monday holiday. Asia Trading: Stocks in Asia gained as investors pinned their hopes on de-escalation in the Middle East conflict after a report said Iranian mediators made a last-minute push for a 45-day ceasefire. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.8%, with Korean chip stocks Samsung and SK Hynix leading the advance. Japan’s TOPIX rose 0.9%, setting it on course for the highest close in more than two weeks. China, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets closed

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slips 0.2% as the euro and the pound hit fresh session highs. Risk-sensitive currencies strengthened, and the Swedish krona led G-10 gains, following an Axios report saying that US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war. Ranges were tight on aggregate.  We’re “seeing risk FX rally” on the headlines, said Charu Chanana, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore. Still, “markets may be running ahead of diplomacy again,” she said.

In rates, treasuries hold small losses as US trading resumes after Friday’s selloff, with most European markets still on holiday. US yields were within 2bp of their closing levels on Friday, when strong March jobs data during abbreviated session caused further erosion in the market-implied chances of a Fed rate cut this year or next year. 

In commodities, WTI crude price isn’t dramatically changed from Friday’s close, but oil remains in focus. OPEC+ warned on Sunday that damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the Iran war ends, as it approved a symbolic increase in output quotas for next month. Developments in the US war on Iran remain in focus after US President Trump pushed to April 7 the deadline he’d set for April 6 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face destruction of its power plants. Oil benchmarks declined, however, after several tankers have traversed the strait since Friday. Gold was roughly unchanged from Thursday close, trading in the upper $4600s.

Focus this week (outside of Iran): FOMC minutes on Wednesday, PCE Thursday, and CPI Friday. LEVI reports Tuesday night and DAL Weds morning. On the calendar for today: US ISM Services @ 10am (est 54.9, last 56.1), Trump to speak at news conference @ 1pm. 

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini +0.1%,
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%,
Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.36%
VIX +0.6 points at 24.47
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1213.26
euro +0.3% at $1.1557
WTI crude -1.8% at $109.51/barrel
Top Overnight News

With a U.S. deadline approaching, the United States and Iran received the framework of a plan to end their five week-old conflict, though Tehran rejected any immediate move to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it did not make a deal by ‌the end of Tuesday that would allow traffic to start moving again through the vital route for global energy supplies. RTRS
Trump issued increasingly aggressive threats to destroy Iran’s power plants starting Tuesday as Tehran said “no rational person” would agree to end hostilities without guarantees. The US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire. Trump will hold a press conference at 1 p.m. ET, following the weekend rescue of a second US airman. BBG
Iran has cleared the way for Iraqi ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, declaring it a “brotherly country” that is exempt from restrictions that have left Western vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf since the U.S. and Israel launched their war more than a month ago. The restrictions are imposed only on “enemy countries.” WSJ
White House said due to popular demand from the press, President Trump’s news conference on Monday will now take place in the White House briefing room at 13:00EDT. News conference is to address the rescue of US airman in Iran.
Saudi Arabia raised the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium of $19.50 as the war upends the market. BBG
India said it’s buying crude from Iran, a rare public recognition of purchases it had largely abandoned as a result of US sanctions. BBG
OPEC+ warned that damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact even after the war ends, as it approved a symbolic increase in output quotas for next month. BBG
Chinese bonds may be reaching an historic turning point, with yields climbing from record low levels as deflationary pressures ease and expectations for monetary loosening recede. BBG
Israel on Monday said it killed the IRGC’s intelligence chief, and vowed to “hunt down” Tehran’s leaders “one by one.” AP
Trump’s regulators are rewriting some of the policies that can trigger debanking, a move that risks making it harder for firms to expel problematic customers or those suspected of criminal activity. BBG
Weekend Updates

US President Trump posted on Saturday that time is running out, and there are ‘48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them, citing the previous ten-day deadline for Iran to make a deal or open up the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also posted that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!”. Furthermore, he reiterated his threat for Iran to open the Strait or they will be living in hell, and posted “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!”
US President Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran’s power plants if the country’s leaders don’t agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening, while he responded, “I will let you know pretty soon” when asked about when he thinks the war will end, according to a WSJ interview.
US President Trump told Fox News that he believes he can get a deal with Iran by Monday and said Iran is negotiating now, but also stated that he ideally will take Iranian oil if Iran is unwilling to make an agreement.
US President Trump claimed in an interview with Axios that the US is “in deep negotiations” with Iran and that a deal can be reached before his deadline expires on Tuesday. However, he added that if they don’t make a deal, he is blowing up everything over there.
US President Trump said in a brief phone interview with The Hill that he is not ruling out ground troops in Iran if Tehran does not make a deal and said “If they were smart, they would make a deal”.
US rescued the second crew member from a downed F-15 in Iran. In relevant news, US President Trump told NBC News on Friday that the downing of the US jet won’t affect Iran talks.
US has deployed most of its JASSM-ER long-range stealth cruise missiles for the Iran war.
US is doubling to USD 40bln its commitment to provide reinsurance guarantees to ships that travel through the Strait of Hormuz.
US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four US, Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks, cited by Axios.
Israeli defence official said they are making preparations for strikes on Iran’s energy facilities and awaiting the go-ahead from the US, while the strikes would likely come in the week ahead.
Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf said the whole region is going to burn because US President Trump insists on following Israeli PM Netanyahu’s commands.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Iran will reciprocate attacks on its infrastructure and will target similar infrastructure owned by the US or related to it.
IRGC warned on Friday that if US President Trump’s threats to target Iran’s infrastructure are carried out, the armed forces of Iran will target all Israeli and American assets and those of the host countries with even greater and more crushing force, according to IRNA.
IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz will never return to normal for the US and Israel, while it added the IRGC Navy is preparing operations for a new order in the Persian Gulf. It was also reported that the IRGC said they hit an Israeli ship in the channel of the UAE’s Jebel Ali port.
Iran was reported on Friday to have rejected a US proposal for a 48-hour ceasefire, while the proposal was made on Wednesday through another country.
Iran and Oman are in active talks to manage and potentially reopen maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while officials met on Saturday to discuss practical options, according to the Omani Ministry of Foreign Affairs cited by ABC News.
Iran’s military said Iraqi ships can travel through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iraq exempt from shipping restrictions. It was also reported that Iran approved the passage of ships carrying essential goods to Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz, while a Petronas-chartered tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passed through Hormuz. Furthermore, 15 ships had passed through Hormuz in 24 hours with permission from Iran, according to Fars News Agency on Sunday evening.
IAEA Chief Grossi said Iran possesses a substantial stockpile of highly enriched uranium, nearing military grade, with the majority located at Isfahan and some at Natanz, while he added it is sufficient for the production of a few warheads.
Israeli army said it conducted a wave of strikes targeting infrastructure belonging to the Iranian regime in Tehran, while Iran announced explosions in Tehran and Qom. Iranian media also reported an explosion in Shiraz early Monday morning and dozens of successive explosions in the city of Karaj. Furthermore, strikes caused a temporary gas outage in the Sharif neighbourhood and hit a gas station near Sharif University in Tehran.
Iran fired multiple waves of missiles towards Israel, while air raid sirens sounded in 186 locations in Tel Aviv, the coastal plain, and southern Negev after detecting missiles allegedly originating from Iran, according to reports from Sky News Arabia.
Missile and drone warning sirens were active in the UAE, with defence systems activated and explosions were reported at US-linked facilities in Abu Dhabi.
Kuwait’s government announced that two power and water desalination plants were struck by Iranian drones, resulting in significant damage and two power generation units out of service. It was also reported that Kuwait Petroleum Corp’s headquarters caught on fire following an unmanned drone strike.
Bahrain urged the UN to pass a resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, according to WSJ.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China is ready to cooperate with Russia to ease Middle East tensions.
India’s Foreign Minister had a teleconference on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East with Qatar’s PM and Foreign Minister.
Iran War

Pakistan Army Chief held separate called with US VP Vance, Envoy Witkoff and Iran’s Araghchi, according to a source. Proposal for final agreement includes Iran foregoing nuclear weapons, receiving relief from sanctions and release of frozen assets. If agreed, plan will lead to immediate ceasefire, reopening of Strait of Hormuz, with a final agreement in 15-20 days. Plan to end hostilities in Middle East needs to be agreed on Monday.
Senior Iran official confirmed receipt of Pakistan’s proposal; is being reviewed; said Tehran will not accept deadlines or pressure to make a decision.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the 15-point plan proposed by the US is extremely ambitious, unreasonable and illogical; Iran has wrote down a set of demands based on its own interests and considerations.
Israel Defence Minister Katz said it will continue to hit Iran infrastructure as long as Iran keeps firing.
Iranian armed forces spokesperson confirms Iran struck US new camp on Kuwait’s Bubyan Island, according to a statement.
Two sources tell the Jerusalem Post the mediators Egypt and Pakistan are trying a last-minute ceasefire deal where Hormuz will be open and talks will start on a full deal between US and Iran.
Iran and US presented with draft proposal that includes 45-day ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz opening, two officials tell AP.
Iranian Foreign Minister said if the US goes ahead with threats to attack Iran’s infrastructure, then it will undoubtedly be met with a decisive and all-round response from the armed forces of Iran, SNN reported.
Iranian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs said “[US] should stop these threats – the effects of which will not be limited to Iran.”, Tasnim reported. Based on Article 51 of the UN Charter, Iran will give a decisive, immediate and regretful response to any imminent aggression or threat.
Spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs says Iran’s response to the mediators has been compiled and we will inform you whenever necessary, IRNA reports
The Iranian regime believes it can continue the fighting and end the war on better terms, according to an Arab diplomat involved in the contacts between Iran and the US, cited by Kann News.
Sirens sound in Be’er Sheva and large parts of southern Israel following an Iranian missile launch.
Pakistan and Egypt are facilitating communications between Iran and the US, with Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner in Iran negotiations, according to a source cited by CNN.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were higher despite the recent threats by US President Trump, as the region also digested last Friday’s better-than-expected US jobs data, while there was some encouragement after more ships sailed through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran exempted Iraq from shipping restrictions. Furthermore, Trump also said he believes they can get a deal before his deadline, and Axios reported that mediators are making a last-ditch effort for a potential 45-day ceasefire. However, conditions remain extremely thin owing to mass holiday closures on Monday for Easter and the Ching Ming Festival. Nikkei 225 shrugged off initial geopolitical headwinds and tested the 54,000 level, where it met some resistance, while news that two Japan-linked vessels passed through Hormuz provided encouragement. KOSPI was led higher by early tech strength with Samsung Electronics rallying ahead of tomorrow’s preliminary Q1 results, with the Co. expected to post a six-fold increase in operating profit to a record KRW 40.5tln due to an AI-driven surge in memory chip demand.a

Top Asian News

Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi reiterates that a weak yen has both positive and negative impact.
European bourses are closed for the Easter Holiday.

Top European News

Bank of Italy updates economic outlook released on 3rd April: CPI forecasts raised across the board. Growth: Cuts 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.6%), cuts 2027 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.2%) and maintains 2028 GDP growth forecast at 0.8%. Inflation: Raises 2026 CPI to 2.6% (prev. 1.4%), raises 2027 CPI to 1.8% (prev. 1.6%) and raises 2028 CPI to 1.9% (prev. 1.6%).
Europe and China are launching a joint space mission to study how Earth’s magnetic field protects against harmful solar radiation.
EU warns capitals against turning energy crunch into fiscal crisis and urges governments to avoid excessive support to offset surging energy prices, according to FT.
FX

DXY traded either side of Friday’s narrow range and has fallen back below the 100.00 handle as hopes of a ceasefire gain traction. First reporting came from Axios over the weekend, in which sources said the US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.
More recently, Reuters cited the Pakistan Army Chief stating that an immediate ceasefire, with the reopening of Hormuz, is on the table if a final agreement is reached on Iran foregoing nuclear weapons, receiving relief from sanctions and releasing frozen assets. However, an end to hostilities needs to be agreed on by Monday.
EUR and GBP both strengthened against the greenback, with EUR/USD trading at the top end of a 1.1505-1.1569 range while GBP/USD extends above 1.3250.
JPY is underperforming, only posting modest gains against the USD. Multiple BoJ branch managers stated the uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. The Osaka official stated that earlier rate hikes have yet to have a substantial impact on overall business activity. On wage talks, the official highlighted that no firms have indicated that the conflict has hindered wage increases.
Central Banks

ECB’s Stournaras says an appropriate monetary policy response in Eurozone will depend on the size and nature of the energy shock.
BoE is reportedly divided on how to address energy-induced inflation and divisions are likely to reopen later this month over how aggressive it needs to be in tackling the impact of the Iran war, according to FT.
Citigroup pushes back its Fed rate cut timeline in which it now sees Fed cutting rates in September, October, and December vs prev. forecast for cuts in June, July, and September.
BoJ Nagoya branch manager said some firms in the region are worried about FX volatility, uncertainty over Middle East conflict could hurt the economy.
BoJ Osaka officials report that earlier rate hikes have yet to have a substantial impact on corporate financing or overall business activity. Smaller firms’ wage talks may be affected by the Middle East conflict but no firms have indicated the conflict has hindered wage increases.
BoJ quarterly regional economic report leaves assessment of all 9 regions unchanged.
Fixed Income

USTs trades in a tight 110.20-110.26 range, in a session in which its European peers are closed for Easter Monday. Slight upticks were seen amid the downside in crude prices, which also resulted in DXY weakness, but it remains contained. On the data front, ISM Services PMI is expected later, with the headline figure expected at 55 from 56.1 prior. US President Trump is also expected to hold a press conference at 18:00 BST/13:00 EDT.
Commodities

Crude futures gapped higher on the open and surged higher, with WTI May’26 and Brent Jun’26 topping at USD 115.48/bbl and USD 111.89/bbl, respectively. The upside came following a Truth post by President Trump threatening Iran that time is running out, and there are ‘48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Trump also posted that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!”. Despite the threats, he also told Fox News that he can get a deal with Iran by Monday and that Iran is negotiating now. The upside was then completely pared back throughout the APAC session following an Axios report citing sources with knowledge of the talks, that the US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.
On the ceasefire front, hopes have risen following a Reuters report highlighting comments by the Pakistan Army Chief stating that an immediate ceasefire, with the reopening of Hormuz, is on the table if a final agreement is reached on Iran foregoing nuclear weapons, receiving relief from sanctions and releasing frozen assets. However, an end to hostilities needs to be agreed on by Monday. Furthermore, a senior Iranian official confirmed the receipt of Pakistan’s proposal and that it is being reviewed. Crude futures now trade with losses, with Brent Jun’26 briefly slipping below USD 108/bbl.
Elsewhere, OPEC+ eight members agreed to raise quotas by 206k bpd for May, although the increase is seen to be symbolic and will predominantly exist on paper as key members are unable to boost output due to the Iran war. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia sets May Arab Light crude oil OSP to Asia at USD 19.50/bbl premium vs Oman/Dubai average (vs Bloomberg exp. of ~USD 40/bbl); a record premium.
Spot gold continues to find support at the 100-SMA as USD weakness lifts the precious metal above USD 4,700/oz and holds above USD 4,600/oz, which has acted as a significant inflection point in recent trading sessions.
Copper futures return from the 3-day closure with mild gains, with CME Copper oscillating in a USD 5.59-5.69/t range, as the risk tone improves on hopes of a Middle East ceasefire. LME is still out of action until Tuesday.
Russian oil product exports from Black Sea port of Tuapse planned at 794k tons in April (vs 755k in March), according to traders.
Saudi Arabia set May Arab Light crude oil OSP to Asia at USD 19.50/bbl premium vs Oman/Dubai average (vs Bloomberg exp. of ~USD 40/bbl); a record premium, Bloomberg reported.
Two tankers carrying LNG from Qatar appear to be heading towards the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported citing tracking data.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said aware two Japan-linked vessels passed through Hormuz.
US Event Calendar

10:00 am: United States Mar ISM Services Index, est. 54.9, prior 56.1
 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/06/2026 – 08:29

Hormuz Sees 15 Ships Transit In 24 Hours As Two Tankers With Qatari LNG Make Sudden U-Turn

President Trump on Sunday warned Tehran to “Open the Strait” and make a deal by the end of Tuesday, or the U.S. military would “blow everything up” and “take over the oil.” Meanwhile, Iran rejected Trump’s ultimatum to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint, saying it would only reopen the critical waterway once damage from the war is compensated.

There was some good news overnight after Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported that 15 vessels had passed through the Hormuz chokepoint over the last 24 hours. Still, that remains only a tiny fraction of pre-conflict tanker traffic.

Separately, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy warned that the waterway will “never return to its previous condition,” particularly for the U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels, and added that it is completing preparations to enforce a new security order across the Persian Gulf.

The question some military analysts are likely asking about the IRGCN’s statement is: with what naval fleet? Still, the IRGCN’s asymmetric warfare around Hormuz can be enforced with suicide drones, naval mines, and missiles.

Map: Tanker Tarffic Hormuz 

In a separate report, Bloomberg’s Stephen Stapczynski tracked two LNG tankers, Al Daayen and Rasheeda, loaded in Qatar that appeared to be traversing part of the Hormuz waterway.

However, Stapczynski noted early Monday that the two tankers appeared to “pause [their] attempt to exit Hormuz.” There was no indication why both tankers abruptly turned around.

“The ships have now slowed and pulled back slightly after earlier heading eastward toward the Hormuz opening. It isn’t immediately clear at this stage if the tankers will abandon the journey,” he said.

UPDATE: QATAR LNG SHIPMENTS APPEAR TO PAUSE ATTEMPT TO EXIT HORMUZ 🚨🚨
The ships have now slowed and pulled back slightly after earlier heading eastward toward the Hormuz opening. It isn’t immediately clear at this stage if the tankers will abandon the journey https://t.co/xRTBpnAluQ pic.twitter.com/oAlPczCUDs
— Stephen Stapczynski (@SStapczynski) April 6, 2026
The two LNG tankers are being closely watched by Wall Street analysts because a successful transit would mark the first LNG exports to buyers outside the Gulf region since the conflict broke out in late February. Any successful passage would be a breakthrough for Qatar, which supplied nearly 20% of global LNG last year, even though its Ras Laffan export plant has been shut for over a month after IRGC drone and missile attacks. Reviving Qatar’s pre-conflict LNG export flows could take $20 billion and years to fix. 

Goldman analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby showed clients last week that energy flows from the Gulf remained muted (read the full report).

Also on Sunday, Axios reported that Iran and regional intermediaries are quietly exploring a 45-day ceasefire as part of a two-phase deal to end the conflict.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/06/2026 – 08:20

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) thinks that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s daughter has been lined up to be her father’s eventual successor, lawmakers noted on Monday, according to Reuters.The NIS indicated to lawmakers that its analysis stems from what it characterized as “credible intelligence” that it had gathered, Reuters reported, citing briefings by ruling and opposition party members following a closed-door parliamentary meeting.Video footage posted last month showed Kim and his daughter on a tank.KIM JONG UN APPEARS WITH TEENAGE DAUGHTER AT LIVE-FIRE ROCKET TEST IN NORTH KOREAThe South Korean agency indicated that the scene of the girl driving a tank was meant to emphasize her supposed military aptitude and counter doubts concerning a female successor, lawmakers noted, according to the outlet.North Korean state-run media KCNA published photos of the North Korean leader and his daughter with a tank last month, following prior images of the girl utilizing firearms, Reuters reported.The daughter is thought to be about 13 years old and named Ju Ae.IRAN’S WAR AGAINST THE US AND ISRAEL IS BEING FUELED BY NORTH KOREAN WEAPONS, EXPERT WARNSThe outlet reported that ruling Democratic Party lawmaker Park Sun-won indicated that the scenes are meant to pay “homage” to the North Korean leader’s military appearances years ago when he was being set up to succeed his father as regime leader.​Korea Institute for National Unification analyst Hong Min said the tank scene is not enough to determine that she has been established as her father’s successor, pointing out that she appeared with her father rather than independently, unlike her father’s independent military appearances as he was being groomed to take the helm.NORTH KOREA TESTS SOLID-FUEL MISSILE ENGINE AS KIM BOOSTS THREAT TO US MAINLANDNorth Korea is one of the world’s only nuclear-armed nations.

TV morning show personality Savannah Guthrie released an Easter message as her mother remains missing.
Earlier today, on Easter morning, Savannah Guthrie, co-anchor of NBC’s Today since 2012, released a heartbreaking video for Easter Sunday as her elderly mother still remains missing.
Nancy Guthrie, Savannah’s mother, disappeared on February 1, 2026, in Pima County Arizona. Authorities are treating her disappearance as a crime. There have been no new leads on the case in weeks. Her mother has been missing for two months now.
Here is Savannah’s Easter message:
Good morning, everybody. Happy Easter. And Easter is happy. It is flowers and pastels and baby bunnies. It is sunshine and joy and hope.
It is rebirth and second chances and new life and fresh starts. It is the most important day of the year for all of us who believe, even more than Christ’s birth. More than his death, his resurrection, his second birth into a permanent life. That is what is most crucial to us. His revival and resurrection mean the same for us.
We celebrate today the promise of a new life that never ends in death. But standing here today, I have to tell you There are moments in which that promise seems irretrievably far away, when life itself seems far harder than death. These moments of deep disappointment with God, the feeling of utter abandonment. For most of us, there will come a time in our life when these feelings hold sway.
In our tradition, we are taught to take comfort comfort in the fact that our friend Jesus, in His short life, experienced every single emotion that we humans can feel. That His taking on the form of humanity made Him not a distant observer to our pain but a hands-on experiencer of it. Recently, though, in my own season of trial, I have wondered. I have questioned. Whether Jesus really ever experienced this particular wound that I feel, this grievous and uniquely cruel injury of not knowing, of uncertainty and confusion and answers withheld.
In those darkest moments, I have thought bitterly and perhaps irreverently that I have stumbled upon a feeling that Jesus did not know. After all, don’t the Gospel stories recount Jesus informing His disciples of His destiny—that He had been sent to die to ultimately be raised up? They didn’t get it, but He did. He at least knew His fate. And yes, it grieved Him deeply, to the point of shedding tears of blood in the Garden of Gethsemane.
But still, He knew the ending. He knew the plan. There would be suffering, but then resurrection.
And so I thought, He never suffered this excruciating not knowing.
It isn’t wrong to think such thoughts, to challenge our God with questions. God does not ask us to be stoics with standards of pain with Zen-like remove or shallow sloganeering about the hard battle God gives to His toughest soldiers. Our questions to God, our wrestling with God—this is his opportunity. For through our authenticity and vulnerability comes a portal of revelation, the imparting of truth and wisdom.
And so it went for me, this portal opening as I stared at yet another incongruently luminous desert sunset. Amidst my spirit’s utter darkness. Suddenly I remembered the grave. I remembered 3 days in the grave. No one talks much about that.
We focus mostly on Easter. Of course we do. We cut to the happy ending and the joy of Sunday morning. And yes, we do observe the Friday before, the agony of crucifixion. We mourn by candlelight that darkest night.
But after Jesus died, after he breathed his last, what did he actually know? On the cross, he cried out, “My God, my God, why have you forsaken me?” That is the anguished cry of someone who does not know the answers. Where did his soul and his spirit go in those days in between? And what was he thinking? Did he think his time in the grave would be a day or two or 1,000 years?
In the grave, did his agony seem indefinite to him? That torment of uncertainty, the way indefinite pain can feel eternal? Perhaps he did know this feeling after all.
As humans living on this earth now, We are all suspended in that moment of uncertainty, not 3 days, but thousands of years between his cross and our resurrection with him. Our faith gives us a spiritual conviction that we will be reborn, that God will redeem this pain, that every tear will be wiped away, that our Easter is coming. But we live viscerally In the meantime, the mean time of feeling unsure, lost, abandoned, disappointed, enraged, forgotten, our comfort is that our God has felt those feelings from a perspective of humanity, that He has compassion on us, and that He promises, if not immediate answers, His sweet presence. He promises closeness to the brokenhearted. Somehow, miraculously, his loving and gentle presence that makes the mean time less mean.
Perhaps, perhaps this is too dark a message to share on Easter morning, but I have long believed that we miss out on fully celebrating resurrection if we do not acknowledge the feelings of loss pain, and, yes, death. It is the darkness that makes this morning’s light so magnificent, so blindingly beautiful. It is all the brighter because it is so desperately needed.
So I close my eyes this morning and I feel the sunshine. I see a bright vision of the day when heaven and earth pass away because they are one on earth as it is in heaven. When we celebrate today, this is what we celebrate. And I celebrate too. I still believe.
And so I say with conviction, Happy Easter.
Video via Collin Rugg.

NEW: Savannah Guthrie releases emotional Easter message amid the disappearance of her mother, says she still believes.
Guthrie says she has questioned if Jesus ever experienced the specific pain she feels regarding the disappearance of her mother.
“Perhaps this is too dark a… pic.twitter.com/45VbmgmjfS
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 6, 2026

The post Savannah Guthrie Releases Heartbreaking Message for Easter as Her Mother Still Remains Missing appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

Iran Rejects Direct US Talks Amid Escalation As Israel Attacks Key Petrochemical Plant At South Pars Gas Field

Summary: 

A Sunday night Axios report on a US-proposed 45-day ceasefire has by Monday morning been rejected by Iran: diplomatic talks are “absolutely incompatible with ultimatums, crimes, and threats to commit war crimes,” the Foreign Ministry said.

Israel strikes large petrochemical plant at South Pars, which is responsible for half of the country’s petrochemical production.

There’s been another extension of what had been a 10-day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz – a deadline that was initially set to expire on Monday evening. Now Trump says Iran has until 8pm on Tuesday.

Trump warned Iran on Easter Sunday to ‘Open the Fuckin’ Strait’ or “you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”

*  *  *

Israel Attacks Petrochemical Plant At South Pars Gas Field

Iranian state media is reporting a Monday attack which targeted the South Pars petrochemical facility in Asaluyeh. “A few minutes ago, the sound of several explosions was heard from the South Pars Petrochemical complex in Asaluyeh,” according to the Fars report. Also Tasnim describes an attack on two utilities companies in Assaluyeh which have cut off electricity supply to petrochemical units. The same outlet revealed the following details:

Petrochemical plants in Asaluyeh, including Jam and Damavand, were targeted.
Mobin and Damavand companies, which supplied electricity, water, and oxygen to the Assaluyeh petrochemical plants, have been targeted.
Pars Petrochemical is safe and has not been damaged.
Israel has announced it was behind the attack, per Washington Post. Does this violate Israel’s prior pledge to Trump to not take unilateral action against South Pars? This as the threatened major US escalation against vital energy and civilian infrastructure looms:

Israel attacked a key petrochemical plant at Iran’s massive South Pars natural gas field and killed a top Revolutionary Guard commander, putting into question the negotiations aimed at getting the U.S. and Tehran to reach a ceasefire.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed what he called “a powerful strike on the largest petrochemical facility in Iran” that’s responsible for half of the country’s petrochemical production. Israel’s military spokesperson, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, said there would be “no immunity” for Iran as talks progress.

The Israeli Air Force struck Iran’s largest petrochemical facility, the South Pars gas field in Asaluyeh. It has been completely destroyed. pic.twitter.com/Jh3KPDwgh2
— Israel News Pulse (@israelnewspulse) April 6, 2026
In Israel, Iranian missiles have continued to fall at steady pace, with Israel’s emergency services reporting that at least 28 impact sites in central Israel on Monday, describing that cluster munitions have resulted in damage.

Ramat Gan, Bnei Brak, and Givatayim were struck, and a man in his 40s was “moderately wounded” – according to local reports.

Iran Rejects Any Ceasefire That is Temporary: ‘Normalization of War Crimes’

Iran rejected a temporary ceasefire in the US-Israeli war, stating it would give adversaries time to regroup and prepare for continued conflict; however, a foreign ministry statement did not specifically reference the 45-day proposal being reported by Axios.

“We are calling for an end to the war and for preventing its recurrence,” foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. Analysts have long understood that Tehran’s retaliation on Gulf states and Israel has been so fierce because it seeks to deter any potential future attack. Iranian leaders fear that without proper and final resolution, the country will just get attacked again, be it a year from now, or even several years down the road.

The foreign ministry also on Monday stated that Iran has prepared a response to US demands to end the war and will announce it “when necessary,” referring to the 15-point list conveyed by Washington to Tehran through Pakistan – which Baghaei reiterated is “extremely excessive and unusual and illogical.” He further reminded the world that Tehran has a “very bitter experience of negotiating with the US.” The idea of talks at this moment remain “absolutely incompatible with ultimatums, crimes, and threats to commit war crimes,” Baghaei continued.

Once again, an avalanche of headlines on ‘negotiations’ were issued hours before markets open Monday morning…

Separately, Iranian Armed Forces spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari stated Monday that if attacks on civilian targets continue, Iran’s retaliation will expand significantly and losses will be “several times greater,” according to Tasnim.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his French counterpart on Monday related to Trump’s threats to wipe out civilian infrastructure, “This threat amounts to the normalization of war crimes and genocide.”

Fresh Axios Report of US-Proposed 45-Day Ceasefire

With a potential globally-catastrophic escalation looming on Tuesday, Middle East mediators are communicating with Iran and the United States about a proposed 45-day ceasefire, Axios reported Sunday evening. The ceasefire is being positioned as the first of a two-phased deal, with the second phase being a negotiated, permanent end to the war that Israel and the United States started with a surprise attack on Feb. 28 amid ongoing negotiations. 

The slim ray of hope comes after President Trump issued a profane, Easter Sunday threat to make life miserable for 90 million Iranians whom he just weeks ago promised to liberate:  “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.”    

How it started vs. how it’s going. pic.twitter.com/LNgxOsF5GK
— Brandan P. Buck (@brandan_buck) April 2, 2026
In addition to vitriol, Trump’s social media posts also brought an extension of what had been a 10-day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz — a deadline that was initially set to expire on Monday evening. Now Trump says Iran has until 8pm on Tuesday. In the interim, Trump has scheduled a 1pm news conference on Monday. The described it as a press conference “with the military,” suggesting it may be focused on celebrating US Special Forces’ retrieval of a downed US Air Force weapons officer over the weekend. Held in the Oval Office, it may be open to only a small subset of the White House press corps. 

The combination of the ever-so-slightly encouraging Axios report and the Trump presser could make for the latest of many market whipsaws since the war started. Trump told Axios that there are “deep negotiations” ongoing with a “good chance” of success. On the other hand, he was quick to add that “if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there.” Trump’s threats to lay waste to Iran’s civilian infrastructure has elicited Iranian promises to retaliate in kind across the Persian Gulf. In a video issued Sunday, Iran threatened “complete and utter annihilation” of OpenAI’s $30 billion Stargate data center in Dubai. 

Iran leveling up
They released a video of threatening to strike 1GW Stargate AI datacenter in the UAE.
The data center is hidden on Google maps they even shown that pic.twitter.com/LuOGIp3BVj
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) April 3, 2026
While the precise nature of the negotiations is unclear, Axios reported that Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators are at the center of the conversations, and that there have been “text messages sent” between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Significantly, the outlets’ sources said mediators couldn’t foresee a full re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz until a final deal is inked. 

The mediators want to see whether Iran could take partial step on [nuclear enrichment and Strait of Hormuz navigation] in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.
The Iranian officials made clear to the mediators they don’t want to be caught in a Gaza or Lebanon situation where there is a ceasefire on paper, but that the U.S. and Israel can attack again whenever they want to.  — Axios
Going into these latest conversations, the gap between US and Iranian demands was enormous. Among other things, Trump is demanding that Iran weaken the ballistic missile program it now used twice to retaliate against US-Israeli aggression, and to cease any nuclear enrichment, even though Iran is otherwise privileged to do so as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (a status Israel lacks). Iran has demanded reparations for the damage caused by Israeli and US attacks, the closure of US bases in the region, the lifting of all sanctions, and a hard-wired guarantee against more rounds of intermittent US-Israeli attacks. Regarding the latter demand, some have envisioned passage of a US law that would cut off aid to Israel if it attacks Iran again. 

Speculation that Pilot Rescue was Cover for Uranium Ground Op

Beyond the potential for escalation via attacks on civilian infrastructure, there’s also the potential for a US commitment of ground forces. Trump may feel emboldened about proposed operations to seize Kharg Island and/or strait-adjacent territory following the dramatic weekend rescue of a downed F-15E crew member — which itself brought the first known deployment of soldiers on Iranian soil. (We should note that there’s a growing number of veterans and other people — pointing to factors like the involvement of C-130 cargo craft and the location of their makeshift airfield — theorizing that the rescue was actually a failed attempt to capture Iran’s cache of 60%-enriched uranium.)

US PILOT ‘RESCUE’ OP COST:
— 2 MC-130 aircraft ($100 MILLION+ EACH) ‘intentionally DESTROYED’
— 4 MH-6 Little Bird helicopters
Iran drops NEW WRECKAGE IMAGES pic.twitter.com/TMYCEspepc
— RT (@RT_com) April 5, 2026
Meanwhile, there’s little to indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is interested in deescalation.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/06/2026 – 08:15

JPM’s Dimon Warns Of “Skunk At Party,” Talks Credit Cycles, Touts U.S. Military Power

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon began his annual shareholder letter on Monday by tying the bank’s legacy to the nation’s history: “In 2026, America is celebrating its 250th anniversary. This year, we are also celebrating the 227th anniversary of JPMorgan Chase, which was founded in April 1799.”

Quick Summary 

Dimon used his annual letter to tout another year of record financial results, while warning that investors may be underestimating the risks building across the global economy. These risks include the U.S.-Iran conflict entering its second month, trade negotiations that exacerbate geopolitical tensions, the convergence of surging oil prices and inflation, and elevated asset prices.

Touting 2025 JPM Results 

The largest U.S. bank said 2025 revenue rose to a record $185.6 billion, while net income reached $57 billion and return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was 20%. JPM also lifted its quarterly dividend twice during the year, to $1.50 a share from $1.25, as it continued to note the strength of its balance sheet. 

The letter also highlighted JPMorgan’s significant role in the US and global economies. Dimon said the bank extended credit and raised capital totaling $3.3 trillion in 2025, moves nearly $12 trillion a day across more than 120 currencies and 160 countries, and safeguards more than $41 trillion in assets. 

Risks

Beyond the numbers, Dimon warned about “some scenarios that would result in a recession, which generally reduces inflation, and other scenarios that would lead to a recession with inflation (stagflation—where inflationary forces overcome deflationary ones).”

He said the “skunk at the party” could emerge this year and “would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down,” adding, “This alone could cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop. Interest rates are like gravity to almost all asset prices. Falling asset prices at one point can change sentiment rapidly and cause a flight to cash.”

Tailwinds 

However, Dimon pointed out, “there are lots of tailwinds helping the U.S. in 2026, including:

Increasing fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill. Our economists believe this will inject another $300 billion (effectively 1% of GDP) into the economy. This has to be very modestly inflationary this year.

Benefits from the Fed’s purchase of $40 billion of additional securities each month, which is supposed to be reduced to $20 billion–$25 billion this April. At a minimum, this supports asset prices and helps ensure there is no liquidity squeeze in the financial system.

Positive effects of comprehensive deregulatory policies. This was badly needed and long overdue. Change is clearly evident in bank regulations that will free up capital and liquidity, which can be lent out (and we already see this happening), and in deregulation across many other industries, from energy to home building. It is fair to say that actions taken have clearly increased confidence and animal spirits. This should add to productivity and be modestly deflationary this year.

Huge increase in AI-driven capital spending and construction by the five hyperscalers. In 2025, this number was $450 billion, and in 2026, it will be approximately $725 billion. While AI will clearly drive productivity, which is generally good for inflation in the long run, all of this spending is probably inflationary in the short run.

Larger Risks

He warned of a series of unresolved “larger risks” shifting beneath the surface of the economy, “like tectonic plates—always moving and periodically causing earthquakes and volcanoes when they crash into each other.”

Those larger risks include:

First and foremost, geopolitics. Russia’s war in Ukraine and its ongoing sabotage in Europe and now the war in Iran and its potential effects on energy prices can cause events that are unpredictable. We all hope these wars get properly resolved. But war is the realm of uncertainty, as each side in a war determines what it wants to do (as is often said, “the enemy gets a vote”), and these conflicts involve many countries. Not only do they have a major impact on the nations at war, but they also have an impact on countries and economies across the globe that are not directly involved in war. Nations that are heavily dependent upon imported energy are already seeing the effects. And it’s not just energy, it’s commodity products that are byproducts of oil and gas, like fertilizer and helium. And given our complex global supply chains, countries are experiencing disruptions in shipbuilding, food and farming, among others. The outcome of current geopolitical events may very well be the defining factor in how the future global economic order unfolds — then again, it may not.

High global sovereign deficits and debt. Global deficits are significantly elevated, particularly during what has been a relatively healthy global economy and, until recently, a time of peace — the deficit globally is at an extremely high 5%, while global sovereign debt is at all-time highs. The current forecast from the Congressional Budget Office has our debt-to-GDP ratio going from 100% today to 120% in 2036. High government debt is somewhat offset by low consumer debt, which was nearly 100% of GDP in 2007 and is now below 70%. Similarly, corporate debt is at a fairly normal healthy level of 45%. High and increasing government debt will eventually have to be dealt with — the right way would be to deal with it now before it becomes a problem; the wrong way would be to let it become a crisis, which, in my opinion, is probably the likely outcome. Importantly, almost 60% of government spending is for entitlements and is not discretionary. This makes the job that much harder. A crucial note on the importance of growth: If interest rates went down 100 basis points and GDP grew at 3%, the debt-to-GDP ratio could actually start to go down instead of going up.

High asset prices and very low credit spreads. In and of itself, this is not a bad thing. Household net worth as a percentage of GDP is now 560%. The high during the housing peak in 2006 was 460%. But this also means that anything less than positive outcomes could have a dramatic impact on global markets. Rapidly decreasing asset prices can sometimes create a self-reinforcing loop. It’s always good to remember that prices are set by the marginal buyers and sellers — which, on the average day, is only a small fraction of asset owners. And it’s also good to remember that foreigners own almost $30 trillion of U.S. equities and bonds. While U.S. investments and the U.S. dollar are generally havens of security in a troubled world, that didn’t stop recessions and bad markets in prior times.

Trade 2.0. The U.S. tariffs themselves had only minor effects on inflation or growth, and were only one straw on the camel’s back. But the trade battles are clearly not over, and it should be expected that many nations are analyzing how and with whom they should create trade arrangements. This is causing a realignment of economic relations in the world. While some of this is necessary for national security and resiliency, which are paramount, it is hard to figure out what the long-term effects will be.

U.S. and China relations. This relationship is critical to the whole world and is also impacted by the events mentioned above. The United States and China clearly have different systems, values, goals and objectives, and while both sides are currently engaging, we have to expect that there will be some bumps in the road — maybe even some large ones. We should all hope that ongoing proper engagement continues to lead to what may be a competitive but peaceful future.

Private credit and credit in general. The leveraged private credit market totals $1.8 trillion. As a comparison, the U.S. high yield bond market totals $1.5 trillion, and the bank syndicated leveraged loan market totals $1.7 trillion. Taking a wider view, the total market size of investment grade bonds is $13 trillion. And the total market value of all residential mortgage securities and loans is also $13 trillion. In the great scheme of things, private credit probably does not present a systemic risk.

Credit Cycle

Dimon continued, “I do believe that when we have a credit cycle, which will happen one day, losses on all leveraged lending in general will be higher than expected, relative to the environment.” We’ve been extensively tracking the cracks emerging across credit (latest here). 

Geopolitics

On the topic of what appears to be Eurasia on fire, with multiple warzones raging, Dimon emphasized three critical issues about preserving the American empire:

The United States must maintain the premier military force in the world.

The United States must maintain its preeminent economic position in the world, which also requires reigniting the American Dream.

The United States must manage its foreign economic affairs to strengthen the U.S. economy and that of our critical allies so that the first two points remain true.

US Military & American Empire 

All about the empire… Dimon said, “We at JPMorganChase feel an enormous responsibility to our nation and many others — and we remind ourselves that many companies will only thrive if their countries thrive. With the right policies and committed actions, the United States will maintain the strongest military and strongest economy and will remain the bastion of freedom and the arsenal of democracy.”

Dimon, who turned 70 in early March, has transformed JPMorgan into the nation’s largest and most profitable bank, making it one of the core pillars of the U.S. financial system. This year’s annual letter carries a warning that the world is becoming more fractured and, in at least one key region, engulfed in war. The broader message is unmistakable: American power is supreme, and JPMorgan intends to help preserve the empire for decades to come.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/06/2026 – 08:10