Update (1215ET): 

Summary… 

President Trump unveiled a U.S.-U.K. trade framework he called a “breakthrough,” designed to lower trade barriers and expand market access for American exports, especially in agriculture, energy, and industrial goods. While the full details remain under negotiation, the deal promises expedited customs clearance for U.S. products entering the U.K. and retains the existing 10% universal tariff rate, with carveouts for steel, aluminum, and automobiles (reduced to zero).

“It’s very conclusive and we think everyone’s going to be happy,” President Trump told reporters, adding, “Many countries want to make a deal, and many countries are very unhappy that we happened to choose this one.” 

Trump continued: “The deal includes billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports, especially in agriculture, dramatically increasing access for American beef, ethanol and virtually all of the products produced by our great farmers.” 

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters via phone that the trade deal is job-protecting and job-creating. U.K. automakers can export 100,000 vehicles to the U.S. at a 10% tariff—down from the previous 25%. Additionally, Rolls-Royce parts will enter tariff-free. A news headline is expected later this afternoon from a major British airline that has committed to a $10 billion Boeing purchase. 

“This is going to boost trade between and across our countries,” Starmer said. 

Both Trump and Starmer pointed out that today is the 80th anniversary of the two countries celebrating the victory of World War II. 

After Trump, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters: “We’ve opened up new market access—ethanol, beef, machinery, all the agricultural products they’ve agreed to open their markets and that will add $5 billion of opportunity to American exporters.”

Here is UBS’ first take on the major trade announcement:  

President Trump has announced a trade agreement with the U.K., the first to be struck between the U.S. and a foreign country since tariffs were announced. Trump says the deal with the U.K. includes billions of dollars of increased market access for U.S. exports, most notably in agriculture.

The summary of the trade announcement via Bloomberg’s Top Live Blog: 

• Trump announces trade framework with U.K. that lowers barriers

• U.K. agrees to $10 billion Boeing procurement, Trump says

• U.K. tariffs on British steel and aluminum cut to zero,

• U.K. says China tariffs could be lowered if talks go well: Trump

In markets, the U.S. main equities jumped, with the S&P 500 up as much as 1.4%. The VIX sank to the 21-handle as Trump told reporters, “Better go by stocks now.” 

More market commentary from Bloomberg:

The S&P 500 is now up 1.4%. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen an advance in equities in the wake of a Trump call to buy. Remember on April 9, the president said “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY,” in a social media post. That came hours before he put a 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariffs for everyone except China. Equities have basically not looked back since that pause – the S&P 500 is up almost 15% since April 8.

Looking ahead, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterpart will begin the first round of trade talks in Switzerland on Saturday. 

Expect a lot more trade headlines over the weekend. 

Btw, BTC/USD > 100K. 

Rewatch Trump’s trade deal announcement. The streaming of the event was filmed by Right Side Broadcasting Network. 

 

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Update (1255ET): 

Trump announced in the Oval Office that the U.S. and the U.K. have finalized a “great deal” on trade.

Highlights of Trump’s announcement (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Trump says the UK will reduce or eliminate numerous non tariff barriers that discriminated against American products

• “Today’s agreement with the UK is the first in a series of agreements on trade,” Trump says

• “The final details are being written up. In the coming weeks we’ll have it very conclusive,” Trump says

• Tade deal will lead to the creation of an aluminum and steel trading zone, and a secure pharmaceutical supply chain, Trump says

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick spoke after Trump:

• Our 10% tariffs on the UK will stay on 

• Says the UK will purchase $10 billion in Boeing planes

Additional headlines from Bloomberg:

• From the UK trade deal, the U.S. will raise $6 billion in external revenue from 10% tariffs, $5 billion in new export opportunities

The UK government responds:

• US tariffs on automotives were immediately slashed from 27.5%, with steel and aluminium reduced to zero

• US trade deal gives unprecedented market access for British farmers with protections on food standards maintained

• We will also remove the tariff on ethanol coming into the UK from the us, down to zero

• We have agreed new reciprocal market access on beef, with UK farmers given a tariff free quota for 13,000 metric tonnes

Make it bigger…

.@POTUS: “I think that it’s a great deal for both parties… it opens up a tremendous market for us… this is a maxed out deal that we’re going to make bigger.” pic.twitter.com/6zRAwZrevy

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 8, 2025

 

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Update (0859ET)

Ahead of the Trump administration’s big unveiling of a U.S.-U.K. trade deal, new reporting from CNN offers a more precise picture of what to expect. Citing sources familiar with the trade deal, the report suggests the agreement will be narrow in scope, packed with forward-looking commitments, and will not roll back existing 10% universal tariffs. 

Meanwhile, the Financial Times adds that the deal’s key focus areas will likely include automobiles and steel—two sectors at the center of trade tensions. 

US main equity indices slid a bit after the headlines hit, but overnight gains have largely been maintained amid elevated trade optimism from President Trump’s series of Truth Social posts. 

The official announcement is expected around 1000 A.M. ET.

 

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Yet another signal that the trade war has hit its peak came overnight, as President Trump took to Truth Social to tease a “big news conference” Thursday morning, where he plans to unveil a “major deal.” As U.S. markets began coming online, Trump continued promoting what he called “a very big and exciting day” for U.S.-U.K. trade. 

Late Thursday night, the president wrote on Truth Social:

Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!

Around 0542 ET, he posted again:

This should be a very big and exciting day for the United States of America and the United Kingdom. Press Conference at The Oval Office, 10 A.M. Thank you!

Trump continued in a separate post around 0608 ET:

The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come. Because of our long time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement. Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!

Then followed by: 

“The Golden Age of America is coming!” 

A resolution to the US-UK trade spat would be the Trump administration’s first step in renegotiating trade worldwide. 

Last month, the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on most imported goods from the UK as part of the baseline tariff it imposed on all nations. On March 12, the administration also imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.

UK officials would most likely want to see the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum completely removed. If this is part of the upcoming trade deal, the UK could then give concessions on a digital tax it levies on Silicon Valley tech giants.

Trump’s series of Truth Social posts provided fresh tailwinds for equity markets overnight in Europe. 

Goldman analyst Jasmin Schneider told clients:

Europe trading firmly in the green this morning (SXXP +70bps, SX5E +1.3%) on progress surrounding US-UK trade talks and some solid earnings on the tape. The big focus overnight on trade talks between the U.S. and UK: *TRUMP: TRADE DEAL ANNOUNCEMENT `THE FIRST OF MANY’. Trump is expected to announce a limited trade agreement with the UK later today (UKX +30bps), which may signal the direction of the U.S. president’s global trade war. Our EU Tariffs Exposed basket (GSXETRFS +1.2%) and UK Consumption names (GSXEUKCO +1.7%) trading well with the deal likely to focus on reducing tariffs on cars and steel, and may include discussions on tech, AI, and digital trade (BBG).

Across the Atlantic, equity futures are also higher, with hopes that the US-UK trade deal will be the first of many resolutions. 

Goldman analyst Rich Privorotsky’s take on the developing trade situation:

Will be watching to see what the shape of the UK deal looks like as it could serve as a global template. Into the weekend the market should grow hopeful for a temperature reduction in the China/U.S. escalation. Although I’m a long term bearish  on U.S./China trade relations, I’m of the opinion that U.S. corporates have a degree of urgency in reducing the 100%+ tariffs imposed (can’t replace supply quickly). Think the landing zone is something back to the 30-50% mark and that will be the travel and arrive event.

Looking ahead, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterpart will discuss the framework for a trade deal on Saturday in Switzerland.

“The negotiations will begin on Saturday,” Bessent said in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

Goldman offered some good news last week: Peak trade war.

Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius noted earlier this week: “The mood music with China has improved, and we expect the U.S. tariff rate on China to drop from around 160% to around 60% relatively soon. (China is likely to reduce tariffs on the U.S. by a similar amount.)”

Earlier this week, attendees at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills warmed up to Trump’s trade war but wanted to see near-term trade deals. KKR co-founder George Roberts told the audience: “Stay calm and carry on.” 

Via VigilantFox.com,

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. sat down with Newsmax’s Greta Van Susteren Tuesday evening and exposed the dirtiest trick in the American food system.

He says corporations hijacked an FDA loophole called “GRAS” to quietly flood our food with untested chemicals – without ever proving they were safe.

And the consequences didn’t take long to show up.

In the late 1980s and early ’90s, something strange started happening in America. Chronic illness was on the rise. Obesity rates soared. Autoimmune diseases became more common.

It felt like the health of the nation was unraveling.

According to HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., that wasn’t a coincidence. It was the result of a corporate takeover.

“At that time… the tobacco industry took over the food industry,” he said.

“By the early 1990s, the two biggest food companies in the world were R.J. Reynolds and Philip Morris.”

The same companies that had perfected the art of chemical addiction through cigarettes were now running the food system. And Kennedy says they brought the same playbook with them.

“They began moving scientists from the endeavor of making tobacco more addictive to developing new lab ingredients that would make food addictive.”

That’s when everything changed.

What had once been real food—grown, cooked, and served—became something else entirely. A highly engineered product designed not to nourish, but to keep people hooked.

The health consequences were immediate. But behind it all, there was something even more insidious: the regulatory system meant to protect Americans had already been compromised.

“Those chemicals were largely untested because of the capture of the FDA by the food and drug industries,” Kennedy warned.

The public trusted the FDA. But the FDA, Kennedy says, had already been captured by the very industries it was supposed to regulate.

It began with a story most people never heard—and a turning point most never noticed.

In the late 1980s and early ’90s, something strange started happening in America.

Chronic illness was on the rise. Obesity rates soared. Autoimmune diseases became more common.

It felt like… pic.twitter.com/YCvleCZKpL

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 7, 2025

Then came the dirtiest trick of all.

Kennedy revealed how the food industry hijacked a decades-old FDA loophole—one that allowed a flood of untested chemicals into our diets.

It started back in the 1940s, when the FDA first began regulating food.

At the time, they made one reasonable exception: ingredients with a long history of safe use—like wheat, eggs, and dairy—wouldn’t need testing.

“When the FDA first began regulating foods in the 1940s, it exempted food ingredients that had been used for generations—like wheat, eggs, and dairy,” Kennedy said.

“They didn’t require testing for those.” But decades later, that narrow exemption was quietly weaponized.

“The food industry later captured that label and applied it to every new chemical they wanted to add.”

Instead of testing new additives, companies simply claimed they were “generally recognized as safe.” And the FDA, Kennedy said, went along with it.

The result? America now has more than 10,000 approved food ingredients. Europe? Just 400.

“In the U.S., chemicals are never safety tested before being added to food,” he said.

Some of those ingredients are derived from petroleum. Others mimic the flavor of strawberries or blueberries, without providing a single nutrient. And they’re not just empty calories.

“These chemicals hijack the brain and trick the body into eating more food while getting less nutrition.” That’s not just unhealthy—it’s unprecedented.

“We are now the fourth most obese country in the world,” Kennedy said, “yet for the first time in history, obesity is often accompanied by malnutrition.”

Think about that for a second.

“The people who are most obese are also malnourished. That’s never been seen before in human history.”

Then came the dirtiest trick of all.

Kennedy revealed how the food industry hijacked a decades-old FDA loophole—one that allowed a flood of untested chemicals into our diets.

It started back in the 1940s, when the FDA first began regulating food.

At the time, they made one… pic.twitter.com/1hEXWK0rEZ

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 7, 2025

But Kennedy isn’t just exposing the problem—he’s taking action.

For decades, food companies have been allowed to slip harmful ingredients into our food. That may finally change.

In March, Secretary Kennedy directed the FDA to begin dismantling the very loophole that made this possible.

He instructed Acting FDA Commissioner Sara Brenner to “take steps to explore potential rulemaking to revise its Substances Generally Recognized as Safe (GRAS) Final Rule and related guidance to eliminate the self-affirmed GRAS pathway,” according to an HHS press release.

Translation: no more rubber-stamping chemicals without oversight.

HHS also announced plans to work with Congress to pass new legislation that would formally close the GRAS loophole.

As of now, the timeline for these changes remains unclear—HHS did not respond when asked how soon they plan to act.

Read the full article here: Kennedy Takes Aim at FDA Loophole That Allows Unsafe Ingredients in Food https://t.co/ATmlhWDFaz

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 7, 2025

Kennedy wrapped it all up with a hopeful message.

“The team here is extraordinary. A lot of people are coming to HHS now because they see an intergenerational opportunity to change the way we do things, and we’re moving fast.”

He outlined several major steps already underway.

“We’ve announced a ban on all petroleum-based synthetic food dyes. We’ve changed the GRAS standards so people can’t rubber-stamp chemicals into food anymore.”

“We’re reviewing chemicals already in our food.”

“We’ve launched Operation Stork Speed to ensure mothers can get the healthiest milk for their children.”

The system was rigged. But now, the tide is turning. And this time, it’s the people—not the corporations—who are finally calling the shots.

Kennedy wrapped it all up with a hopeful message.

“The team here is extraordinary. A lot of people are coming to HHS now because they see an intergenerational opportunity to change the way we do things—and we’re moving fast.”

He outlined several major steps already underway.… pic.twitter.com/B5n5aioZ7z

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 7, 2025