Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for 2026 this week, on March 22. The reason is the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The bank described it as the largest supply shock in the history of the global crude market. This is not a minor model tweak. It is a fundamental reassessment of where energy prices are headed.Brent crude is now expected to average $85 a barrel in 2026. That is up from Goldman’s prior forecast of $77. West Texas Intermediate was raised to $79 from $72. The note was led by analyst Daan Struyven. It was published as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran entered its fourth week with no sign of resolution.What Goldman Sachs’ model assumesGoldman’s base case assumes flows through the strait stay at just 5% of normal levels for six weeks. That is followed by a gradual one-month recovery. Under that scenario, cumulative oil losses would exceed 800 million barrels.Crude production losses in the Middle East are currently running at 11 million barrels per day. Goldman expects that to peak at 17 million barrels per day before any recovery begins. To put that in context, roughly 20% of the world’s oil and 20% of its LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz. There is no quick workaround at that scale.More Oil and Gas:The world’s biggest gas field matters just as much as oil right nowGoldman Sachs reveals top oil stocks to buy for 2026U.S. economy will show resilience, despite rising oil pricesGoldman is also making a structural argument. Even after the Strait reopens, prices are not expected to fall quickly back to pre-war levels. The shock has forced markets to reprice the concentration of oil production in the Persian Gulf. That risk premium is now baked into long-dated oil forwards, not just near-term contracts.The near-term and year-end pictureGoldman expects Brent to average around $110 a barrel through March and April. Brent futures were trading at around $113 on March 23, consistent with that call.Later in the year, Goldman sees prices easing as supply normalizes. Its Q4 2026 base case is $71 for Brent and $67 for WTI. Both are raised from prior estimates of $66 and $62. But the risk scenario is stark. If the disruption stretches to two months, Q4 Brent could reach $93 per barrel. In extreme scenarios, Goldman warns prices could exceed the 2008 record high.Goldman’s 2027 Brent base case stands at $80. That is not a return to the pre-war world. The bank believes structural risk in the Persian Gulf is now permanently repriced.What this does to the Fed’s pathThis is not just an energy story. It is now a monetary policy story. Goldman Sachs has pushed back its Fed rate cut forecast directly because of the oil shock. The bank no longer expects a June cut. Its first cut call has moved to September, with a second in December.The Fed held rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting for the second straight time. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that higher oil prices push inflation up and growth down at the same time. Cutting rates risks accelerating inflation. Holding them risks tipping a slowing economy into recession.
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Goldman has raised its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 30%. That is up from 20% before the war. The bank’s base case is still continued growth. But the margin has narrowed considerably.What investors should watchThe Goldman note flags several forces that will determine whether the $85 full-year average holds:Hormuz timeline. Every week the Strait stays closed adds pressure to near-term prices and delays the normalization that Goldman’s base case depends on.OPEC+ spare capacity. Saudi Arabia and allies have idle production they can deploy. Goldman questions whether that capacity holds beyond Q3, given dividend and fiscal pressures on Aramco.U.S. shale response. American producers can add supply, but not instantly. Goldman caps the near-term shale response at roughly 1.5 million barrels per day.SPR rebuilding. Goldman flags that nations restocking strategic reserves after the crisis will create additional long-term demand. That acts as a price floor even after Hormuz normalizes.What it means for consumersHigher oil feeds directly into gasoline costs, heating bills, and goods that depend on energy-intensive supply chains. Goldman estimates a sustained 10% rise in oil prices raises headline PCE inflation by about 0.2 percentage points while shaving 0.1 points off GDP growth. With Brent up sharply from pre-war levels, the drag on household purchasing power is already meaningful.Goldman now projects PCE inflation will end 2026 around 2.9%. That is well above the Fed’s 2% target. It makes cutting rates harder even as growth slows. The oil market is at the center of one of the most difficult policy environments in years.For investors, the question is no longer whether energy markets have been disrupted. They have. The question is how long it lasts. Q2 earnings season will be the first real test of Goldman’s base case.Related: This Gulf oil stock is more about cash than crude