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Goldman Sachs just revamped its oil price target for the rest of 2026, raising alarms that the ongoing crisis could last much longer than previously expected.In a fresh research note cited by Seeking Alpha, Goldman bumped its Q4 2026 forecasts to $71 for Brent and $67 for West Texas Intermediate, up from $66 and $62, respectively. The big bank now foresees a more fleshed-out disruption to global oil supply, keeping prices elevated as it rip-roars through inflation, interest rates, and the broader economy.Contrary to the claims swirling around, oil’s now trading on genuine physical disruption.For instance, James West of Melius Research commented on the relative quiet in markets, according to Reuters.The critical Strait of Hormuz remains halted for the most part, and consequently, Gulf producers have been compelled to cut output, Reuters reported.Oil tankers have taken major hits, and the IEA says the current oil supply disruption is the largest in the history of the global market.That said, here’s a clean snapshot of the oil market at the time of writing to better understand the situation on the ground.Brent crude:$98.45 a barrel, after briefly topping $100 earlier in the sessionWTI crude:$93.23 a barrelSince the conflict began on Feb. 28, 2026: Brent is up more than 36% and WTI about 39%.
Source: Reuters
As we speak, the situation remains dire, pointing to escalation rather than a clear-cut resolution. On Thursday, per Reuters, Iran turned up the heat on Gulf shipping and oil infrastructure, while Saudi Arabia is looking to reroute crude oil through the Red Sea (still incredibly short of replacing lost Hormuz flows).Zooming out, Goldman Sachs’ analysis suggests the current turmoil is unlikely to fade quickly, and its impact will likely extend beyond energy markets. As I covered recently, the bank argues that oil could become a major macro issue if sustained elevated prices push headline inflation higher and pressure growth.As a result, the bank also makes the case that the Iran-led oil shock makes a June Fed cut hard to justify, given mounting inflation risks.The bank now sees just a couple of rate cuts this year, according to Seeking Alpha, but that same shock will likely open the door for cuts in September as things cool off. So clearly, the oil crisis has a far-reaching impact that investors need to consider.Other banks and analysts that raised oil targetsCiti Research: Bumped its Brent outlook to $75 per barrel for Q1 2026, $78 for Q2, and $68 for Q3, up from $73, $70, and $62, respectively.HSBC: Raised its average 2026 Brent forecast to $80 from $65, and its average 2026 WTI forecast to $76 from $61. ANZ: Raised its average Q1 2026 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel. UBS: Raised its Q1 2026 Brent average to $71 per barrel and its full-year 2026 Brent forecast to $72.Standard Chartered: Raised its Q1 2026 Brent forecast to $74 from $62, Q2 2026 to $67 from $63, and its 2026 average Brent forecast to $70 from $63.50. Barclays: Brent could test $120 per barrel if we see a fleshed-out conflict that persists another couple of weeks, with a higher-end scenario of $150 before the end of the month.
Source: Reuters

Goldman Sachs revised its oil price outlook for the remainder of 2026 as supply risks reshape forecasts.Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Goldman Sachs says this is no longer a short-lived oil shockThe bank revised its oil price outlook primarily because its earlier framework assumed the crisis would be relatively short-lived.Goldman’s now modeling something a lot more persistent, which is why it bumped its Q4 price target, as mentioned earlier. Goldman analysts are now assuming 21 days of low Strait of Hormuz (SoH) oil flows at roughly 10% of normal levels, leading to a 30-day recovery, Reuters reported. Previously, they were forecasting just a 10-day disruption.More Oil and Gas:Energy giant sends blunt $20 billion message on dividend growth147-year-old oil giant just raised dividend 4% in 2026Top energy stocks to buy amid Venezuela chaosSo unlike the chatter we’re hearing about a brief interruption, Goldman Sachs points to a more prolonged bottleneck in one of the world’s most important oil arteries.That development feeds into everything else, including elevated near-term prices, tighter inventories, and greater concerns about spare capacity.Things could get even trickier as the bank argues that if daily oil prices could reach their 2008 peak, SoH flows remain depressed through March.Energy giants post strong gains as oil rally lifts sector returnsChevron stock: 1-month: 6.43%, 3-month: 31.22%, 6-month: 26.37%, 9-month: 39.67%, YTD: 29.77%Exxon Mobil stock: 1-month: -0.56%, 3-month: 29.41%, 6-month: 39.15%, 9-month: 44.09%, YTD: 28.55%ConocoPhillips stock: 1-month: 3.35%, 3-month: 24.60%, 6-month: 29.20%, 9-month: 31.36%, YTD: 28.73%BP stock: 1-month: 10.47%, 3-month: 19.86%, 6-month: 25.26%, 9-month: 42.18%, YTD: 22.62%Shell stock: 1-month: 10.87%, 3-month: 22.09%, 6-month: 24.69%, 9-month: 27.70%, YTD: 21.06%Diamondback Energy stock: 1-month: 6.79%, 3-month: 14.93%, 6-month: 31.29%, 9-month: 22.91%, YTD: 20.06%
Source: Seeking Alpha
Goldman flags oil inventories and emergency buffers as the real pressure pointGoldman Sachs also warns that global oil inventories could become remarkably fragile if the oil disruption drags on.In its latest note, the bank argues that policymakers might need to step in with a hefty emergency response in preventing a deeper supply shock. It modeled a scenario where governments might need to release 254 million barrels from global strategic petroleum reserves, along with 31 million barrels of additional Russian crude supply.That strategic move could potentially reduce the hit to global commercial inventories by roughly 50%.However, the current issue is physical supply, not just market sentiment. The conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has basically halted the bulk of the traffic that’s coming through the Strait of Hormuz, which has left tankers stranded while forcing some producers to slow down or suspend output.That’s exactly what Goldman is flagging right now, warning that higher crude prices could lift energy stocks, raise transportation costs, and push inflation expectations higher across the economy.Related: 5-star analyst revamps Micron stock price target before earnings

Another long-running American restaurant chain is shutting down a historic location, continuing a wave of closures hitting the industry.Restaurant shutdowns have become increasingly common over the past few years. Still, the news often hits hardest when decades-old establishments with deep community roots close their doors.Even as the broader restaurant sector remains a major driver of the U.S. economy, many operators continue to face rising costs and shifting consumer spending habits. According to the National Restaurant Association, eating and drinking establishments were projected to contribute $1.54 trillion to the U.S. economy in 2025, accounting for more than 5% of nominal GDP.However, continued restaurant closures could begin to disrupt that economic momentum if industry pressures persist.One longstanding Midwestern chain now facing challenges is MCL Restaurant and Bakery, a family-owned brand that has served comfort food to generations of customers.Founded in 1950 in Indianapolis, the restaurant has built a loyal following through its cafeteria-style dining and classic homemade dishes. Menu staples such as fried chicken, macaroni and cheese, and famous pies have made the chain a familiar gathering spot across the Midwest.Now, another one of its beloved locations is preparing to close after decades of serving the community. MCL Restaurant and Bakery confirms permanent closure MCL Restaurant and Bakery is permanently closing its Terre Haute restaurant at 3 Meadows Lane on March 15, 2026. The owners did not disclose a specific reason for the closure. However, the shutdown will affect approximately 20 employees, according to the Tribune Star.The Terre Haute closure follows several recent shutdowns by the family-owned chain, leaving just 10 locations across Indiana and Ohio.Recent MCL closuresSpringfield, Illinois: The restaurant at 2151 Wabash Ave. closed in February 2026, ending the chain’s presence in the state, according to The State Journal-Register.Indianapolis, Indiana: The location at 6002 Crawfordsville Rd. closed in April 2025, according to IndyStar.In both cases, the company did not publicly state a reason for the closures.

MCL Restaurant and Bakery is permanently closing its Terre Haute restaurant.Shutterstock

Community members react to the MCL restaurant closuresAlthough the owners have not explained the recent shutdowns, many longtime customers have shared their reactions online.Some community members expressed sadness at losing a restaurant tied to decades of family traditions.”My grandma ate there every night with her two sisters-in-law for years. Every time we were in town we would go with them. I’m sad to see it go,” wrote one Facebook user.”We went there after church quite often as did a lot of churchgoers. There is not really any place good to go anymore,” another commenter recalled on the same Facebook post.Others suggested the chain may have struggled with rising prices or changing food quality in recent years.”Quality was just so bad compared to what it was just a few years ago. Sad poor management ran it to the ground,” one commenter wrote on Facebook.”The food has gone down and was so expensive,” another user added.While these comments represent individual opinions, they reflect broader frustrations some diners have voiced across the restaurant industry.Restaurant chains face mounting industry challengesThe struggles facing MCL Restaurant and Bakery reflect challenges affecting many restaurant operators nationwide.Prices for food away from home increased nearly 4% in the 12 months ending February 2026, according to recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.At the same time, restaurant operators have been dealing with significant increases in operating costs. The National Restaurant Association estimates that both food and labor costs have each climbed about 35% over the past five years.To offset those surges, restaurants raised menu prices by an average of 31% between February 2020 and April 2025, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.More Restaurant Business News:Popular fast food chain warns of more closures in 202631-year-old Italian restaurant chain closing its final locationsApplebee’s confirms more closures in 2026 as new concept expandsHowever, higher prices have coincided with declining customer traffic. In a National Restaurant Association survey, 60% of restaurant operators reported lower customer traffic in December 2025, up from 51% in November.James O’Reilly, a food industry executive with more than 15 years of experience in restaurant marketing, believes that the current economic environment has changed consumer behavior.”In strong economic environments, price increases have historically been tolerated by restaurant guests,” O’Reilly told FSR Magazine. “Over the past few years, that’s become far more difficult. While headline economic indicators have improved and financial markets have strengthened, many restaurant consumers, particularly in lower- and middle-income brackets, have not experienced the same relief.”Why restaurant closures remain commonEven under stable economic conditions, the restaurant industry is one of the most challenging sectors to operate in.The National Restaurant Association estimates that approximately 30% of restaurants fail, with around 17% closing within their first year. Sara Senatore, a senior restaurant analyst at Bank of America, told Time Magazine that margins have little room for error. “If you combine restaurant margins being under pressure with a tenuous financial situation, all you need is one or two things to go wrong,” said Senatore.Related: After bankruptcy, iconic seafood chain closing more restaurants

While the American spirits market has proven resilient, it’s facing challenging economic and social headwinds.Spirits supplier sales in the United States were down -1.1% in 2024, totaling $37.2 billion, while volumes rose 1.1% to 312.2 million 9-liter cases, according to data from the Distilled Spirits Council (DISCUS).“Consumers were contending with some of the highest prices and interest rates in decades, which put a strain on their wallets and forced many to reduce spending on little luxuries like distilled spirits,” DISCUS President Chris Swonger said.  “Our sales dipped slightly, but consumers continued to choose spirits and enjoy a cocktail with family and friends.”That success, however, has not been without struggles, as a number of distilleries have closed since 2024. “Active US craft distillers dropped from 3,069 in August 2024 to 2,282 in August 2025. Seven hundred and eighty-seven fewer operations in a single year,” according to The American Craft Spirits Association.Now, craft distillery, Rotten Little Bastards, has joined that list as it has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy and will be liquidated. Liquor industry faces challengesBrown-Forman CEO Lawson Whiting explained the challenges facing the liquor industry during his company’s fourth-quarter earnings call.“The consumer and their wallet just doesn’t have as much money in it,” he said. “They’re spending money on things like vacations and lodging, and other things like that. But then when it trickles down, and they go to the grocery store, I think in some cases, spirits have fallen out of the basket a little bit.”The liquor giant also acknowledged that President Donald Trump’s tariff situation create uncertainty for the industry.“We know it’s highly volatile,” Leanne Cunningham, the company’s CFO, said while fielding a question about tariffs during the conference call. “None of us can predict what’s going on.”That’s a concern that’s broadly shared among distilleries.“We’re very worried about what tariffs could do to our industry,” said Eric Gregory, president of the Kentucky Distillers Association, reported WKYT.More Bankruptcy:Key auto parts and services company files Chapter 11 bankruptcyKey travel brand files for Chapter 11 bankruptcySelf-driving-car company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protectionThe industry also faces some social changes as younger Americans drink less.“Young adults in the U.S. have become progressively less likely to use alcohol over the past two decades, with the percentages of 18- to 34-year-olds saying they never drink, that they drank in the past week, and that they sometimes drink more than they shouldall lower today. At the same time, drinking on all three metrics has trended up among older Americans while holding fairly steady among middle-aged adults,” according to a Gallup poll.Rotten Little Bastards faces liquidationRotten Little Bastards, which started as a “retirement dream turned reality,” has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection, according to The Island Packet.In its bankruptcy filing, the company listed assets of $152,554.72 in total property, including $1,061.47 in cash, $2,169.25 in deposits and prepayments, $80,000 in inventory, and $66,740 in machinery, equipment, and vehicles, among other things. The company has $395,265.12 in liabilities, including secured and unsecured claims. Its secured debt is a U.S. Small Business Administration loan from United Community Bank in Bluffton, worth $321,445.52. The rest of the debt comes from unsecured credit accounts and a rejected lease. Funds will be available for distribution to unsecured creditors, the company said in the filing.The company confirmed its shutdown on its Facebook page.Owner Brigid Fackrell said that its remaining inventory will be available for purchase at South Carolina liquor stores and online distributors Cellar.com and Tipxy.com as long as supplies last, she said.The company will be liquidated under the Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing.

Distilleries have been struggling for a number of reasons. Shutterstock

Rotten Little Bastards Chapter 7 bankruptcy facts:The owners shared the reasons behind their decision to close on Facebook.”We realized then that our current level of stress was not sustainable. We contacted a broker and started looking for investors or someone to buy the business. The current economy and changes in how people drink alcohol were not in our favor and we could not find a buyer. So, with that, we decided to close,” Brian and Brigid Fackrell posted.Rotten Little Bastard Distillery is a craft distillery located at 2139 Boundary Street in Beaufort, South Carolina, according to the company’s website.The distillery produces handcrafted spirits, including vodka, moonshine, gin, rum, and bourbon-style whiskey, it shared.The business was founded by Brian and Brigid Fackrell, who moved to South Carolina from Nevada and launched the distillery as a retirement business venture, according to LC Weekly.RLB Distillery Company Inc., doing business as Rotten Little Bastard Distillery, filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy on March 10, 2026 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of South Carolina, according to Bankruptcy Observer.A Chapter 7 bankruptcy means a court-appointed trustee will oversee liquidation of the company’s assets to repay creditors, according to the U.S. Courts website.Related: Iconic brewpub chain shutters 39 locations amid bankruptcy wave