The Street

Stock market investors are heading into CPI week with a familiar playbook.The hope is that inflation cools off further and the Fed stays on hold, with robust earnings taking over as the next driver of the S&P 500.For perspective, the S&P 500 recently traded near 7,575, up about 10.7% year to date, according to Yahoo Finance, indicating the market has held up despite a remarkably choppy period.Earnings, in particular, have moved the needle, helping the market remain resilient amid the AI boom. However, according to a Goldman Sachs note cited by Seeking Alpha, strategist Ben Snider argues that stocks could face near-term pressure if interest rate hikes return to the conversation, even as corporate profits remain the bigger long-term force behind the market.Markets still see only a limited chance of a hike this month, but the path beyond that is less settled.That leaves a ton of tension for investors, even though the rally still has earnings support; one hawkish shift from the Fed might test how much of the risk market could absorb.The Fed risk hiding inside the S&P 500 rally The S&P 500 has held up as investors have relied on a familiar clean story, but that only holds if rate expectations are contained. On top of that, earnings have continued to impress, with Q2 expectations jumping following a superb Q1 showing.More AI:The new Chinese AI model rattling U.S. tech investorsAnthropic restores access to Mythos 5 for select organizationsSoftBank CEO offers stinging critique of Musk’s AI betIn fact, FactSet says analysts and companies were “more optimistic than normal” heading into Q2 earnings season, and that estimated S&P 500 Q2 earnings were higher than at the start of the quarter.It also says Q2 earnings growth is expected to be above 20% for the second straight quarter. Nevertheless, if interest rates rise, earnings alone may not be enough to justify further gains in the market. Today’s market is much more exposed to financing costs, as AI investments have been the primary drivers of earnings and stock market valuations.History explains why the gap matters. Goldman found that the S&P 500 has fallen about 2% on average in the three months after the start of the past seven Fed hiking cycles. In 1997, even a single quarter-point hike coincided with a roughly 10% drop before stocks recovered.However, markets see only about a one-third chance of a rate bump at the Fed’s next meeting, even as futures already imply a half-point of hikes through mid-2027.Goldman economists are a lot less hawkish, though, expecting the Fed to stay on hold this year and assign only a 25% probability to more tightening.

Goldman Sachs warns interest rate hikes could pressure the S&P 500 rally.Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Key numbers behind Goldman’s S&P 500 warningMarkets see only about a one-third chance of a Fed hike this month, but there’s plenty of debate on the next major policy surprise being tighter, not looser.Futures imply nearly 50 basis points (half a percentage point) of hikes through mid-2027, as a more hawkish rate path would pressure valuations and financing-sensitive growth stocks.Goldman economists assign only a 25% probability to more tightening, creating room for a relief rally if inflation data supports the bank’s less hawkish view.The S&P 500 has fallen about 2% on average in the three months after past Fed hiking cycles began, showing why even a modest rate reset could hit stocks in the near term.AI-related companies represent 42% of S&P 500 market cap and 38% of the expected 2026 EPS, which means that higher borrowing costs are a bigger threat to the market’s dominant growth trade.
Source: Goldman Sachs note cited by Seeking Alpha
What has to go right for the rally to keep climbing For the S&P 500 to keep grinding higher, the next inflation print needs to keep the Fed-hike debate from gaining momentum.That puts a ton of weight on June CPI. Goldman economists expect core inflation to rise just 0.17% month over month, while headline CPI is forecast to fall 0.11% as energy prices ease. So, if we see a print that’s near or behind those levels, it would support the idea that the Fed can stay on hold and let earnings drive the market’s next move.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently doubled down on that during a European Central Bank panel in Sintra, Portugal, according to Reuters. He stressed that the Fed would stick firmly to its 2% inflation target and that “we’re going to deliver price stability in the U.S.” The second test is earnings season. Investors need companies, especially the biggest in the tech space, to continue showing that demand is holding up, margins haven’t cracked, and that AI-related spending is still translating into meaningful bottom-line expansion.That’s important because Bank of America recently raised concerns about rising valuations, largely driven by AI, setting the stage for a potentially volatile summer trading season. For the most part, Goldman’s own outlook is still constructive. The firm expects S&P 500 earnings per share to reach $340 in 2026 and has an 8,000 year-end target, implying single-digit upside from current levels.Wall Street price targets for the S&P 500Citi set an 8,100 year-end target, banking on stronger earnings and resilient AI-led momentum.Goldman Sachs raised its target to 8,000, citing earnings growth as the market’s main support.Morgan Stanley lifted its target to 8,000, favoring industrials, hyperscalers, financials, and discretionary stocks.JPMorgan raised its target to 7,800, citing AI capex and resilient economic conditions.Bank of America stayed at 7,100, warning valuations and speculative growth expectations look stretched.
Sources: Reuters, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Investing.com, and Yahoo Finance
Related: Goldman Sachs says Americans may pay for the AI boom

The artificial intelligence boom has been nothing but a headache for Apple (AAPL) since it started. The stock quickly gained a reputation as an AI laggard.The company recently had to raise prices for some of its products due to the skyrocketing memory prices, caused by the AI buildout.The difficult situation prompted it to start lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which is on the Pentagon’s blacklist.Apple is now going straight for the heart of the AI bubble by suing OpenAI.Apple alleges trade secret theft by former employees and OpenAIOn July 10, Apple filed a lawsuit in a federal court in Northern California, alleging that its former employees Chang Liu and Tang Yew Tan, currently working for OpenAI, stole Apple’s intellectual property in order to develop OpenAI’s own consumer hardware.The filing states some very damning things:“This much is clear, however: at every level, from members of its Technical Staff to its Chief Hardware Officer, and in coordination with business partners, OpenAI has been stealing Apple’s trade secrets and confidential information.”Drew Pusateri, spokesperson for OpenAI, posted a response on X:“Our statement in response to this suit: We have no interest in other companies’ trade secrets. We remain focused on building innovative technology that empowers people everywhere.”If the allegations are proven true, they will also prove that Palantir CEO Alex Karp’s recent statements about the AI industry must be taken seriously.

Apple is alleging trade secret theft by former employees and OpenAI.Mariia Shalabaieva/Unsplash

Alex Karp blasts the AI industry on CNBC Squawk BoxPalantir CEO Alex Karp’s interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box quickly turned from what was supposed to be a discussion of Palantir’s new partnership with Nvidia into a heavy critique of frontier AI model companies.Karp talked about the issues very passionately, using too much expert-level terminology, to the point that what was being said left many people scratching their heads.However, for those proficient in the inside baseball, he was absolutely making sense, though he could have done it a bit more coherently, as his thoughts were jumping too much from one topic to another.Related: Apple’s iPhone cost problem reveals AI’s hidden billHere is the key part of the interview where Karp laid it all out:”In this country, at every single enterprise I deal with, these people are livid. They’re like, I am paying for tokens that create no value. These people are stealing the weights and alpha of my business, and they’re creating a wealth tax that does not help the poor.”He also said:”[If] I can make you $1 billion tomorrow, wouldn’t I say I’ll make you $1 billion, and I want 30%. Why are they charging for tokens if it’s so valuable?”If we unpack what he said, he raised three key issues within the industry:AI customers feel that Large language models (LLMs) create no valueCharging for tokens is impracticalFrontier model makers can steal their customers’ IP if they wishPointing out the issues was certainly motivated by a promotion of Palantir’s product Ontology. However, he didn’t really try to hide that. Here is what he said:”We have this thing called ontology that now everyone’s copying, but de facto, it takes a large language model, it makes it safe and useful and precise. So safe because it doesn’t touch your underlying data, safe because it prevents the large language model from caching your data and replicating your business.”Karp continued: “Safe because it doesn’t transfer your IP, or how to fight secret data, top secret data, or in a clinical context.”Former AI czar speaks up in support of Karp’s statementsFormer White House AI czar David Sacks posted a long post on X about why Karp is right. Sacks points to Figma being blindsided by Anthropic’s launch of Claude Design, and adds that it isn’t the only example.He wrote:“Anthropic has launched Claude Science, Claude Security, Claude Legal, and of course, Claude Code — each expanding into categories previously served by companies building on top of their models. The pattern is consistent: watch where value is being created, then move in directly. Dominate the model layer, then use that position to capture the most lucrative verticals.”Apple’s lawsuit now alleges that OpenAI was ready to do much more than that, and it should wake up many companies to rethink their approach to AI use.But if the allegations are proven to be correct, they will pretty much prove that Karp’s other key points make sense, too.Technical limitations of LLMs make charging per token impracticalOpenAI has gone from promising to cure cancer, replacing workers, and enabling people to prompt into existence billion-dollar businesses, to allegedly stealing trade secrets.The lawsuit presents another serious bump in the road for the company’s IPO, on top of the previous one.By the previous one, I am referring to tech writer and prominent AI skeptic Ed Zitron publishing OpenAI’s leaked audited financial statements. The data was verified by the Financial Times. This leak revealed an increase in OpenAI’s net loss, from $5.09 billion in 2024 to $38.53 billion in 2025.Someone might defend this by saying, “What is wrong with charging for tokens? Everyone pays for electricity exactly how much they use it. No one is paying for the value of what you do with that power.”However, that would be making a wrong comparison.When you get electricity, you use it to power things you get value from. Let’s take, as an example, the simplest thing: a light bulb. It is absolutely easy to calculate how much that light bulb will cost you at the end of the month. It will also work predictably.More tech stocks:Cathie Wood buys $22.8 million of surging tech stock5-star analyst sends AMD stock investors a warning5-star analyst sets bold SpaceX stock price targetThe problem is that when you get “hallucinations” from AI, you still have to pay for them. You can never know how many tokens a prompt will end up burning, so you can never tell how much it will cost you. If electricity worked like LLM tokens, it would look very different.You would never know how much electricity you’ll spend when you turn the light on. It would be totally random. Sometimes, keeping it on for an hour would cost you as much as keeping it on for a year.The light would sometimes be normal, sometimes it would start to work like a disco ball, sometimes it would produce just red light.Calling LLMs “artificial intelligence” is stretching the truth. The term hallucinations is also misleading; it “humanizes” LLMs and makes it sound like they are a bug that can be fixed.In a simplified view, LLMs are randomized algorithms, and what is termed a “hallucination” is perfectly normal functioning of said algorithm.The reason AI companies charge per token is that AI inference (processing tokens) is extremely expensive.These inherent issues have led to the end of the era of token-maxxing, with Tesla (TSLA) among the most recent companies to fold. According to The Telegraph, Elon Musk has set a $200-a-week limit on Tesla employees’ AI spending.Both Karp’s interview and the Apple lawsuit show that the industry is in crisis.If LLMs were really as valuable as their use costs, OpenAI and Anthropic would not be selling access to them but would be using them to solve real problems and make money from the solutions.Related: Bank of America sets alarming SpaceX stock price target

I’m convinced that you might know someone who went to Ikea for a lamp and came home three hours later with a car full of flat-pack boxes they didn’t plan on buying. That’s the Ikea effect. It’s as if the maze-like stores are designed to make you forget you drove 45 minutes to get there.That’s also precisely the problem Ikea was trying to solve in 2023 when it launched its smaller “Plan & Order Point with Pick-up” locations. Yes, the idea was smart: bringing Ikea closer to metro shoppers who weren’t willing to make the pilgrimage to the warehouse. TheStreet reported that on Aug. 30, 2026, Ikea will close two of those locations. One in South Charlotte, North Carolina, and one in Austin, Texas, according to its website.The Swedish retailer spent billions building the format it’s now walking away from. And when a giant retreats from a market, of course, someone else fills the space. My understanding is that Target (TGT) is the most obvious beneficiary. In fact, the timing couldn’t be better for a retailer that just posted its strongest quarter in years.Also Read: History of Target: Company timeline and factsWhy Ikea’s retreat leaves a real gap in two major marketsLet me be clear about what these closures actually mean. These weren’t full Ikea warehouse stores.They were smaller service hubs designed to help customers plan purchases and pick up orders. Essentially, it was a direct attempt to capture urban and suburban shoppers who weren’t making the trip to the big-box locations.That’s an important distinction. Ikea was using these locations to reach a specific kind of shopper. The apartment renters, young professionals, and first-time homeowners who want Scandinavian-style, budget-friendly design without the day-trip commitment. Related: IKEA closing key U.S. storesIn Charlotte and Austin — two of the fastest-growing metro areas in the country — that demographic is enormous.Ikea Family membership data tells the story clearly. In fiscal year 2025, 25 million U.S. members generated 56% of all U.S. sales, with an average order value of $183 compared to $90 for non-members, according to Ikea U.S. FY25 Annual Summary. These are loyal, high-spending customers. Closing the access points that brought them closer to the brand doesn’t make those shoppers disappear. It makes them available to whoever is conveniently nearby.Why Target is positioned to capture Ikea’s displaced shoppersI think the competitive overlap here is more direct than it first appears, and it comes down to three things.First, Target wins the instant-gratification buyer. Ikea’s Plan & Order locations didn’t carry physical stock for immediate purchase. In fact, most of the time, most of us want to buy something we can see and judge based on our impressions.If you’re a shopper who wants to see a piece of furniture, buy it, and take it home the same day, I bet you already have one obvious alternative in both markets. Target’s home furnishings section is built exactly for that transaction.More Target Corporation:Target balances fashion-forward and price-consciousTarget adds big names Amazon and Walmart can’t touchTarget brings back iconic partnership after 17-year shutdownSecond, Target’s private label strategy mirrors Ikea’s aesthetic almost perfectly. Threshold, Studio McGee, and Opalhouse all hit the same minimalist, design-forward note at comparable price points. If you discovered your taste for Scandinavian-influenced home decor through Ikea, you don’t need to change your style preferences to shop at Target. You only need to change your destination.Third, proximity wins. Ikea’s traditional warehouses are sparse and require real planning to visit. With nearly 2,000 stores across the United States, Target operates about 10 miles from most doorsteps in America, according to a Target report.Related: Target faces an Amazon and Walmart problemWhen Ikea pulls back its metro presence, Target doesn’t need to do anything differently to capture the traffic. It just has to be there.Home Furnishings and Decor represented 15% of Target’s total merchandise net sales of $104,780 million in fiscal year 2025. That’s $15.6 billion, according to Target’s 2025 Annual Report.That’s already a substantial business. Any meaningful shift in Ikea’s displaced metro shoppers flows directly into a category that Target already dominates.

Home Furnishings and Decor represented 15% of Target’s total merchandise net sales of $104,780 million in fiscal year 2025. Gary Hershorn/Getty Images

Target’s Q1 momentum makes the timing even more interestingI wouldn’t be writing about this opportunity if Target were struggling. But the business is genuinely accelerating right now, which makes the select Ikea store closures land at a particularly favorable moment.First-quarter 2026 net sales growth of 6.7%, well above expectations.Comparable traffic grew 4.4% year over year. Digital comparable sales rose 8.9%, led by more than 27% growth in same-day delivery through Target Circle 360. Non-merchandise sales, which include advertising revenue through Roundel and marketplace revenue, grew nearly 25%.
Source: Target first-quarter earnings
CEO Michael Fiddelke called the results “stronger than expected” in the company statement, describing them as “encouraging early signs that our clarified strategy is resonating with our guests.” The company raised its full-year net sales growth guidance to around 4% and guided adjusted EPS near the high end of its $7.50 to $8.50 range.TGT shares were trading at $136.14, up 42.15% year to date and 36.67% over the past year, according to Yahoo Finance data as of July 13, 2026, in early trading hours. The S&P 500 returned 10.30% and 20.62% over those same periods. After five years of painful underperformance, it looks like the recovery narrative is finally finding its footing. The timing itself feels more like an opening for Target than anything else.Related: Target balances fashion-forward and price-conscious

The June 17 ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is over. U.S. forces bombed more than 80 targets inside Iran over the July 12-13 weekend. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz again. On July 13, President Donald Trump went on Truth Social and said the U.S. was putting the naval blockade back in place and charging every ship that uses the Strait a 20% toll on its cargo.Oil moved before anyone had time to read the full post. Brent crude was up nearly 8% to $82.03. West Texas Intermediate moved the same amount to $77.10. Just six vessels crossed the Strait in a 12-hour window on July 11. Before the fighting resumed, it was 18 to 22 a day, according to Al Jazeera. About 230 loaded oil tankers are sitting inside the Gulf right now with nowhere to deliver their cargo.White House’s new Hormuz blockade and 20% oil shipping toll explained”The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran. We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, as The Hill reported.He said the U.S. would now be called “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT” and would collect 20% on all cargo shipped through it. The blockade kicks in July 14 at 4 p.m. EST, according to Axios. It covers Iran’s entire coastline, all ports, and oil terminals. Any ship entering or leaving those areas without U.S. authorization can be intercepted, boarded, and seized.The International Maritime Organization (IMO) said that’s a problem. “There is no legal basis through which to introduce mandatory tolls simply to transit through a strait,” the IMO told CNBC. Its 40-member council, which includes the U.S., said transit rights through international straits cannot be “threatened, impeded, denied, hampered, impaired or suspended.”On July 13, U.S. Central Command said the Strait was open and U.S. forces were there to keep it that way, The Hill reported. Iran’s IRGC, on the same day, said it was closed. Two militaries, two different answers, same waterway.

President Trump told reporters as recently as July 8 that oil prices would come down and that the Iran war would “end very quickly.”Fred/Getty Images

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much to global oil pricesBefore the U.S. and Israel hit Iran on Feb. 28, about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20% of global LNG moved through the Strait of Hormuz every day, according to the Congressional Research Service. There’s no fast alternative when it closes.Saudi Arabia has pipelines that bypass the Strait to the Red Sea. Oman’s location lets it route around it. Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE don’t have those options. They ship through Hormuz, or they don’t ship. The 230 tankers stuck inside the Gulf right now are carrying oil that has nowhere to go until this gets sorted out.Brent hit $114 on May 4 when things were at their worst. It had been drifting back down as the ceasefire held and more ships moved through. July 13 erased most of that progress. Whether it keeps going back toward $114 depends on how long this round lasts.Oil price forecast as analysts assess Hormuz disruption riskSaul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, said Iranian attempts to control the Strait will likely keep traffic below half of pre-war levels for months, with more flare-ups along the way, according to Al Jazeera.Tony Sycamore at IG Australia pointed out that the U.S. and Iran never actually agreed on whether Hormuz is international waters or partly Iranian territory. That disagreement was in the ceasefire deal the whole time, just quietly sitting there. “At the very least, it will keep markets on edge,” he wrote to clients.President Trump had told reporters that oil prices would come down and this would “end very quickly,” Politico reported. He said he didn’t think the situation would go back to full-scale war. Oil going up nearly 8% in a session says the market isn’t taking that promise at face value.What the Hormuz oil blockade means for inflation, consumers, and the FedWhen crude moves 8% in a day, it doesn’t stay in the energy sector. Gasoline goes up. Heating oil goes up. Jet fuel goes up. Airlines feel it. Trucking companies feel it. Anyone moving goods around feels it. That happens fast.PCEinflation was already running well above the Fed’s target through the first half of 2026. An oil spike landing on top of that is a problem the Fed didn’t need more of. Citi analysts have warned previously that sustained crude gains can feed through into broader inflation in ways that force central banks to keep rates higher for longer.The 20% toll makes it worse. Every ship using the Strait pays it, whether or not it has anything to do with Iran. That’s a straight cost increase on goods moving through, on top of whatever supply-risk premium is already built into the price of oil.What investors should watch as Strait of Hormuz standoff continuesThe U.S. hasn’t done a naval blockade at this scale since the Cuban Missile Crisis, according to CNN. There was no playbook for it then, and there isn’t one now. U.S. military officials were still working out the logistics on July 13, hours after Trump posted.Oil stocks, refiners, and energy infrastructure names move with crude. Airlines, manufacturers, and retailers with heavy fuel costs move the other way. That’s the basic trade. How long it stays that way depends on whether the diplomatic track picks back up or whether the coming days bring another round of strikes.Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi took a different angle. Rather than rejecting the toll concept, he used it to argue that Iran, not the U.S., should be the one collecting it.”POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service. Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER,” he wrote on X. “20% is of course too much. We will be fair.”That’s a strange position to take while also claiming you control the Strait and the U.S. doesn’t. But it’s the kind of opening that could eventually lead somewhere, if anyone in Washington and Tehran is still talking.Related: White House makes promise on Strait of Hormuz and oil

SpaceX stock is trading at $145.30, about 8% above its $135 IPO price, according to Yahoo Finance at the time of writing.Interestingly, SpaceX stock climbed as high as $225.64 after its $135 IPO, according to Yahoo Finance reporting, indicating a peak post-IPO gain of about 67%, before sharply retreating from those highs.So SpaceX investors were naturally looking for proof that Wall Street’s post-IPO optimism wasn’t misplaced and that the company was truly onto something special.Citi’s analysts obliged, offering far more than a simple stock call. Following a 10-hour teach-in on space and AI, the firm argued that SpaceX sits at the center of a 10-plus-year investment cycle, with launch leadership, Starlink, orbital AI, and extreme vertical integration creating a compounding infrastructure story. Citi just hailed SpaceX as a platform for the future, while the market still has to decide how much of that future is investable today.Why Citi sees SpaceX as more than a rocket companyCiti kicked things off with a buy rating and a $200 base-case price target for SpaceX stock, implying an expected return of about 34.9% from current levels.In the note shared with me, Citi valued SpaceX as a vertically integrated platform spanning space access, global connectivity, and AI infrastructure, rather than just a launch provider.Moreover, Citi derived its target from the average of three methods: 2027 growth-adjusted multiples for trillion-dollar peers, a sum-of-the-parts analysis valuing Space, Connectivity, and AI separately, and 2030 comparable-company multiples for large-cap platform peers.Put bluntly, as my fellow tech reporter Vuk Zdinjak noted in perhaps the most honest take on SpaceX, that kind of valuation framework shows how tough it is to value such a business. In the Bank of America note he covered, he panned the bank’s use of a nearly 20-year cash-flow model that stretched far beyond the usual 5- to 10-year DCF window and well past the typical 12-month life of a price target. Analysts looked to assign a present value to businesses that may not be fully proven for years.Nevertheless, Citi is sold on SpaceX’s abilities, especially its reusable launch capability, Starlink’s global satellite network, the xAI/Grok integration, and future terrestrial and orbital compute infrastructure. It also argues that extreme vertical integration will likely push costs down and throughput up at a scale competitors might struggle to match.

Citi says SpaceX’s opportunity now stretches beyond rockets and Starlink. Chesnot/Getty Images

Wall Street price targets for SpaceX stockMorgan Stanley set a $300 price target, arguing SpaceX’s AI and infrastructure upside remains underappreciated after the IPO.Deutsche Bank set a $255 target, saying SpaceX deserves a premium valuation because few companies match its scale in reusable rockets.JPMorgan initiated coverage with a $225 target, citing SpaceX’s launch dominance and Starlink’s broadband opportunity.Goldman Sachs set a $205 target, citing trillion-dollar potential across space, broadband, and AI, while flagging volatility risks.Bank of America set a $235 target, with analyst Ronald J. Epstein arguing SpaceX’s launch leadership could power a broader Starlink, infrastructure, and AI flywheel.
Sources: TheStreet, Investing.com, MarketScreener
Why the space economy may be bigger than investors think Citi’s broader point is that SpaceX isn’t turning heads in isolation. It’s operating in a market whose ceiling is still being rewritten, with VOYG CEO Dylan Taylor arguing that the “space TAM is not fixed” and that the industry is entering a 10-plus-year investment cycle where government and commercial spending reinforce each other.So, effectively, we’re seeing new layers of demand emerging across satellite broadband, orbital AI, defense, lunar infrastructure, space manufacturing, and data services. More tech stocks:Bank of America resets Intel stock price targetMorgan Stanley resets Nvidia stock forecast after key eventBank of America resets Broadcom stock price target after earningsCiti also talked about tight launch capacity and a space company COO, who said that current supply chain conditions should not derail the upcoming launch and satellite manufacturing ramp.ETF sponsors are also seeing that same widening opportunity. ProcureAM CEO Andrew Chanin said the Procure Space ETF crossing $1 billion in assets validated the move from “thematic curiosity” to “core allocation,” with the industry now powering broadband, climate monitoring, and national security.To throw in some third-party figures, according to Fortune Business Insights, the global space economy is projected to grow from $648.43 billion in 2025 to $1.15 trillion by 2034, representing an increase of roughly 78%. What could derail Citi’s bullish SpaceX thesis To be fair, SpaceX’s bull case rests on several big “ifs.” Citi analysts pointed to several risks, including failure to demonstrate rapid Starship reusability, lack of launch infrastructure, FAA and other government regulatory headwinds, slower gains in Starlink mobile share, and failure to prove that orbital AI satellites can actually perform compute at scale.The big argument from Citi is that orbital AI satellites are physically possible, but the problem centers on unit economics as advanced materials and components remain expensive. Put simply, that leaves investors rallying behind a business where the technology may be possible, while the economics remain unproven.Zdinjak’s Bank of America analysis pushes that skepticism harder. He notes that BofA’s bullish case relies heavily on Starship becoming rapidly reusable, orbital compute working, regulatory risk staying manageable, and SpaceX spending enough money to support an AI buildout that’s remarkably competitive.So essentially, if even one of those pillars slips, Citi’s upside-down case will look a lot more fragile.At the same time, Seeking Alpha data suggest investors may be less willing to pay 49 times forward sales for SpaceX. Related: 5-star analyst sets bold SpaceX stock price target

The rapid growth of GLP-1 medications has reshaped the weight-management industry, prompting consumers to seek additional support beyond prescription treatments. As more Americans turn to medications such as Ozempic and Wegovy, demand has also grown for nutritional guidance, coaching programs, and long-term lifestyle support designed to help maintain results.The shift has created a significant business opportunity. The U.S. weight-loss market was valued at $11.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $21 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 7.4%, according to Market Data Forecast. That same study notes that growth is being driven by increased consumer interest in health and wellness, along with a broader adoption of medically supervised weight-management programs.To capitalize on that demand, retailers, pharmacies, healthcare providers, and wellness companies have expanded their offerings with nutrition programs, coaching services, telehealth options, and medication-related benefits. These initiatives help retailers attract new members, strengthen customer loyalty, and differentiate themselves in an increasingly competitive marketplace.Sam’s Club has jumped on that bandwagon with a new partnership with one of the biggest names in weightloss.Sam’s Club partners with WeightWatchers Sam’s Club has partnered with Weight Watchers (WW) to provide members with access to nutrition counseling, affordable healthy food options, pharmacy services, wellness support, and expert guidance.The collaboration comes as Weight Watchers continues expanding beyond its traditional points-based weight-loss program by integrating behavioral coaching with clinical weight-management support, including GLP-1-related services, to meet changing consumer demand.”At Sam’s Club, our purpose is to help people save money and live better,” said Sam’s Club Chief Merchant Myron Frazier in the company’s announcement. “This collaboration with Weight Watchers extends that commitment by making trusted, science-backed weight health support more affordable and accessible for our members.”As part of the partnership, Sam’s Club Plus members are eligible for a complimentary three-month Weight Watchers Core membership, valued at $54. After the promotional period, members can continue the Core plan for $10 per month with no long-term commitment.Members also receive discounted pricing on Weight Watchers Core+ and Med+ programs, with savings of up to 50% off everyday pricing. Core+ includes personalized wellness coaching, nutrition recommendations, and access to virtual and in-person workshops.The program is designed to support members pursuing lifestyle changes, those taking GLP-1 medications, and consumers exploring clinical weight management options.”At Weight Watchers, we know people can improve nutrition, sustain weight loss, and improve overall quality of life with guidance, support, and community, something so aligned with Sam’s Club’s purpose to deliver value to help improve lives,” said Weight Watchers Chief Commercial Officer Scott Honken, PharmD. Sam’s Club expands its GLP-1 strategyThe partnership builds on Sam’s Club’s broader strategy to expand its healthcare and pharmacy offerings as demand for GLP-1 medications continues to rise.In January, the retailer announced it would offer starting doses of oral Wegovy Tablet, the first FDA-approved oral GLP-1 treatment for weight loss, for $149 per month through NovoCare’s self-pay program. Plus members also receive free same-day pharmacy delivery. The company also introduced pharmacist counseling on medication management, nutrition and side-effect guidance, along with digital wellness resources through the Sam’s Club-exclusive Well App.Originally developed to help manage Type 2 diabetes by regulating blood sugar, digestion, and appetite, GLP-1 medications, including Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and Trulicity, have become increasingly popular for weight management, driving noticeable changes in consumer behavior.According to Gallup, approximately 11% of U.S. adults are taking GLP-1 medications for weight loss in 2026, up from 3% in 2024. About 15% report having used at some point, while public awareness has also increased significantly, with 91% of Americans now familiar with the medications’ role in weight loss, compared with 80% in 2024.

Sam’s Club partners with Weight Watchers to launch a new offer for members.Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Competition for membership growth intensifiesSam’s Club’s expanding health and wellness offerings also serve as a competitive advantage in the warehouse club industry, where retailers increasingly use exclusive benefits to attract new members and encourage renewals.The WeightWatchers partnership is the latest addition to Sam’s Club Plus, the retailer’s premium membership tier. While the standard Club membership costs $60 annually, the Plus membership is priced at $120 per year and includes additional exclusive benefits, according to Sam’s Club’s membership website.Costco has adopted a similar strategy by expanding access to discounted telehealth weight-loss programs and GLP-1 medications for members. The retailer currently offers the oral Wegovy Tablet for $149 per month through its pharmacies or $151.99 through Prescription Home Delivery, as well as 50% discount on Wegovy and Ozempic injections, according to Costco’s website.Costco’s Gold Star membership costs $65 annually, while its Executive membership is $130 per year and includes additional benefits, per its membership website.The partnership reflects a broader strategy among membership retailers to move beyond merchandise discounts by incorporating healthcare and wellness services that encourage membership renewals and strengthen the overall value proposition. As competition for recurring membership revenue intensifies, retailers are increasingly using exclusive health benefits to differentiate themselves and deepen customer loyalty.Sam’s Club’s strategy drives membership growthSam’s Club’s investment in expanding member benefits is beginning to translate into stronger financial performance.During the first quarter of fiscal 2026, parent company Walmart (WMT) reported that Sam’s Club U.S. net sales increased 6.1% year over year.Membership and other income were up 11%, driven by a 5.6% rise in membership-fee revenue, reflecting growth in member counts, renewal rates, and Plus memberships.”We’re continuing to enhance the value and convenience of the membership,” said Walmart Executive VP & CFO John David Rainey in the company’s earnings call. “These types of ongoing investments in the member value proposition at Sam’s supported the membership fee increase that became effective on May 1.”Rainey added that Walmart’s combination of low prices and convenience continues to attract new customers to both Walmart and Sam’s Club.Here’s some of my previous coverage of retail strategy:Spam maker exits entire market98-year-old grocery chain closing stores in key marketsBJ’s Wholesale cuts prices as tariff refunds begin flowingAs demand for GLP-1 medication continues to reshape the health and wellness landscape, retailers are increasingly positioning weight-management services as a long-term membership benefit rather than a standalone healthcare offering. For warehouse clubs like Sam’s Club and Costco, expanding access to pharmacy services, wellness programs, and nutrition support represents another way to compete for customer loyalty while creating value beyond everyday savings.Related: IKEA closing key U.S. stores

When people face financial challenges, or even have worries about the economy or their job, they can usually put off a furniture purchase.Even if you need a new bed, table, dresser, or couch, but can’t really afford one, you can scrounge one up on Facebook Marketplace and other similar sites. Furniture is one of the easiest household purchases to postpone.”The explanation offered is almost always the same. Housing is down. Tariffs are up. Inflation is squeezing consumers. Costs — from fuel to freight — remain elevated,” wrote Furniture Today Editor Emeritus Ray Allegrezza, to explain why so many furniture stores have closed.GlobalData Managing Director Neil Saunders thinks the answer is even more basic.”It’s easy to blame the economy for this. And it’s easy to blame online. And neither of these things should be completely dismissed. However, when you get under the skin of the closures, it’s obvious that the primary cause is usually the age-old failure to align with demand,” he posted on LinkedIn.Now, another long-standing furniture chain, Georgia Furniture Mart, has decided to close all of its stores.Georgia Furniture Mart shutting downOriginally named “Underpriced Furniture” when it launched in 1986, the company was built around offering quality home furnishings at the lowest prices available, according to its website. “We also strive to provide friendly, professional service through a diversified staff that reflects our customer base and makes them feel like family,” the company shared. Georgia Furniture Mart’s website and social media make no mention of the chain’s impending closure. News of the shutdown, however, was reported by Atlanta’s WSB-TV 2.More Retail:60-year-old retailer closes over 240 locations across 35 statesRetail giant exits U.S. fashion after multi-million-dollar scandal79-year-old fast-fashion retailer closes 128 storesThe Georgia Furniture Mart is going out of business and will close its Norcross and Kennesaw locations. The company’s third location, a distribution warehouse for online and in-store sales, will also shut down.”We are deeply thankful to everyone who has been part of this journey and entrusted us with their homes,” founder Michael Hall said in a statement. “While this chapter is coming to a close, the memories and relationships we’ve built will always remain.”Final liquidation at both stores will begin on July 16, with “deep discounts offered” on a large list of items for homes, according to the company.

While many furniture chains have closed, a few have thrived.Shutterstock

Georgia Furniture Mart is part of a larger trendA number of furniture chains have shut down in 2025 and 2026. That’s something analysts blame on the housing market.”The combination of elevated mortgage rates and home prices has pushed housing turnover rates near historic lows. And if people aren’t moving, there are fewer consumers in the market for a new couch or dining table,” eMarketer Senior Analyst Zak Stambor shared.In his April comments, he laid out the dire situation for furniture retailers.”You can see that dynamic in the numbers. Sales at furniture stores are down about 8% since 2022, and this year is off to another sluggish start, with sales in the first two months down 4.8% YoY,” he added.Those conditions have led to a number of long-standing brands to shut down, including, but not limited to:Value City Furniture: Began closing stores after parent American Signature Inc. filed Chapter 11 in November 2025. The company later announced the liquidation of all remaining 79 Value City Furniture stores, according to RetailDive.American Signature Furniture: Liquidated all 10 remaining stores alongside Value City Furniture as part of its parent company’s bankruptcy proceedings in early 2026, RetailDive reported.Circle Furniture: The New England retailer closed all nine stores in late 2025 and later filed Chapter 7 liquidation, according to Furniture Today.Metro Mattress: The New York mattress chain filed Chapter 11 in 2025 after failing to find a buyer and ultimately liquidated its remaining stores, Yahoo Finance shared.American Mattress: The Midwest mattress retailer filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy in July 2025 and later wound down operations, TheStreet reported.5th Avenue Furniture: Filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy in June 2025 after years in business, becoming another casualty of the furniture industry’s downturn, according to TheStreet.The furniture industry has grown as wellAllegrezza noted that the furniture business has plenty of growing retailers as well. “Earlier this week, Thomas Lester reported on 27 retail openings announced or updated during the first quarter,” he wrote in an April opinion piece.He shared some other growth examples in the piece:Bob’s Discount Furniture has been opening new stores across multiple states, often stepping into vacant big-box locations. Ashley Furniture continues to invest in new and refreshed large-format stores.Ikea is pushing ahead with new formats and a stronger fulfillment-driven model. And in the Midwest, Gardner White expanded aggressively in the aftermath of Art Van’s collapse.Allegrezza noted that demand has lessened, not disappeared, and that room remains for well-run operators to grow.”What separates them is less about exposure to headwinds and more about how they respond to them,” he added. “The strongest retailers treat disruption as opportunity. When competitors close, they move quickly to secure real estate, pick up displaced customers, and gain share. They are not waiting for conditions to improve; they are acting within the conditions that exist.” Related: 50-year-old boat builder files Chapter 7 and won’t deliver

A serious retirement crisis is quietly building across the United States, according to new warnings from AARP.The organization’s active policy campaign highlights a persistent retirement gap that leaves roughly 56 million private-sector workers — nearly half of the country’s workforce — completely without access to an employer-sponsored retirement plan.The issue hits employees at small businesses the hardest, where roughly 78% of workers at firms with fewer than 10 employees are completely locked out of a workplace 401(k), according to AARP data monitored by Morningstar. This structural divide separates corporate professionals with robust benefits from small-business employees left to build their future safety nets entirely from scratch.”Older Americans consistently tell us they want policies that expand opportunity and help people build financial security over a lifetime,” said Nancy LeaMond, chief advocacy and engagement officer at AARP.In a 2026 advocacy report addressing national savings expansion, AARP emphasized that closing this massive 56 million worker coverage gap must remain an absolute national priority as Washington rolls out new matched savings architectures.The organization maintains that automatic payroll deduction remains the single most critical factor in driving consistent household savings.The workplace savings gapWhen automatic payroll deduction isn’t an option, the momentum to save drops significantly. In fact, current industry data monitored by Morningstar tracks that roughly half of all private-sector workers are completely excluded from the compounding benefits of a traditional workplace plan. This access gap triggers massive long-term fiscal consequences for aging households. A July 2026 report by the Brookings Institution warns that the systemic disappearance of traditional employer pensions has profoundly altered the retirement landscape, systematically stripping out guaranteed lifetime income and pushing all market volatility risks directly onto individual workers.To combat this systemic shortfall, 22 states have enacted state-facilitated retirement programs as of mid-2026, according to data tracked by the Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives. These legislative mandates require private-sector employers who do not offer a proprietary plan to enroll their workforce into automated individual savings accounts.State and federal legislative solutionsThe momentum behind these programs is hitting record milestones. Data tracked by The Pew Charitable Trusts shows that state auto-IRA programs have expanded to cover nearly 1.2 million participants, who have collectively amassed more than $3 billion in retirement savings.However, national implementation remains fragmented, leaving millions of workers to navigate the financial wilderness alone in the interim.More on personal finance:Charles Schwab, Fidelity alert workers to forced 401(k) ruleDave Ramsey warns Americans on 401(k)s, IRAs (he’s not wrong)Congress research arm warns Americans on 401(k), IRA penaltyFor these individuals excluded from the traditional 401(k) system, the administrative and financial burden shifts completely to the household level. Without an employer to select a brokerage provider, negotiate low fund fees, or offer a matching contribution, individual savers must take the sole initiative to open tax-advantaged accounts.They face the daunting tasks of independently evaluating investment allocations, monitoring annual inflation adjustments to contribution ceilings, and manually engineering a path toward long-term financial security.

AARP reports that 56 million private-sector workers lack access to an employer-sponsored retirement plan.Getty Images

Real-world retirement scenariosTo provide clear, real-world context for the workforce access gap, I have built three distinct financial models to examine the exact scenarios savers are most likely to encounter.These calculations are based on standard tax-bracket parameters, assuming standard deductions, single filing status, and individual retirement accounts (IRAs) as the primary wealth-building vehicle.By looking at these base points, savers can easily map these trajectories to their own financial lives and adjust their savings strategy accordingly.Scenario A: The modest-income saverConsider a 35-year-old retail employee earning $45,000 a year at a small business that offers no retirement benefits. Because they lack a workplace option, they must bypass the corporate system entirely and open a traditional IRA.To max out the annual individual contribution limit of $7,500, this saver sets up an automatic monthly deduction of $625 from their checking account.This disciplined strategy reduces their current-year adjusted gross income by $7,500. Assuming a standard 12% federal income tax bracket, this automated move creates an immediate tax savings of roughly $900 for the year.Scenario B: The mid-career catch-up saverLook next at a 52-year-old independent contractor earning $70,000 who has fallen behind on long-term retirement planning. Operating without an employer plan, they must take advantage of the tax code’s age-based incentives.As an individual over the age of 50, they qualify for the IRS catch-up provision. This allows them to contribute an additional $1,000 beyond the standard baseline, bringing their annual IRA limit to $8,500.By automating a monthly transfer of roughly $716.66 into a traditional IRA, they shield the full $8,500 from current-year taxation. Under a 22% federal income tax bracket, this calculation saves the worker approximately $1,892 in taxes today.Scenario C: The mid-career professionalFinally, examine a 42-year-old consultant earning $95,000 whose boutique firm does not offer a corporate retirement plan. Operating in a higher tax bracket, this professional utilizes a Roth IRA to secure tax-free growth.They maximize their annual contributions at $7,500 by setting up an automated monthly allocation of $625. Because a Roth IRA is funded with post-tax dollars, they receive no immediate tax deduction today.This strategy requires them to pay roughly $1,650 in federal income taxes on that principal amount now. However, by retirement, the entire accumulated principal and decades of compounded investment growth can be withdrawn completely tax-free.(Source:Jeffrey Quiggle, TheStreet)The bottom line on individual savingsThese calculations prove that while losing access to a workplace 401(k) removes a massive structural advantage, it does not entirely stall retirement savings velocity.By stepping into the role of an independent asset manager — utilizing automated monthly transfers, maximizing catch-up limits, and choosing the correct tax bucket — savers can systematically bypass institutional hurdles to engineer their own long-term financial security.Note: This piece of financial journalism is for educational purposes only and not for formal tax or investment advice.Related: Vanguard sends urgent warning on major 401(k) growing problem

Most people planning retirement income start with yield. They figure out what they need to live on, find something that pays enough to cover it, and work backward to a savings target. It feels logical, yet most financial planners will tell you it’s actually the wrong place to start.Yield tells you what your money covers today. It says nothing about what that same income buys a decade from now, when inflation has had years to quietly work against it.The Social Security COLA gap that’s eating into retirement purchasing powerSocial Security’s COLA for 2026 was 2.8%, the Social Security Administration confirmed. PCE inflation ran well above that through the first half of the year, hitting 4.1% year over year in May 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.That gap between what benefits adjust and what things cost is doing real damage to retirees on fixed income. Month to month, it doesn’t feel like much. Over 10 years, it adds up to a lot of ground lost quietly.Retirement income plans rarely account for this. People plan for the income they need now, not the income they’ll need when they’re older and when everything costs more.Why high-yield retirement income is more complicated than it looksHigh-yield investments make a lot of sense on the surface. A business development company or a mortgage REIT paying out big distributions every quarter solves the immediate cash problem. You need income, it provides income.Growing the payout is a different matter. A flat distribution that stays the same, while costs go up is worth less in real terms every year. The check doesn’t change. The groceries, utilities, and medical bills do.More Retirement:Dave Ramsey raises red flag on major IRA, Roth IRA decisionSocial Security’s $30 trillion hole sparks tax debateIRS raises 401(k) limits but most workers lag behindBDCs and mortgage REITs also cut distributions when credit conditions tighten. Long-duration Treasury funds have looked high-yielding at times while losing serious capital underneath, with some losing close to 28% over five years, according to Yahoo Finance.Distribution yield and total return are two different numbers, and retiring on one without tracking the other is where things go wrong years later.What dividend-growth investing does for retirement income that high yield doesn’tDividend-growth stocks start with a lower yield, which is why retirees often look past them. Johnson & Johnson,Procter & Gamble, NextEra Energy — these companies don’t pay out huge distributions today. What they do is raise what they pay every year, usually by more than inflation.A dividend growing consistently can double the income within a decade without adding another dollar to the portfolio. The retiree starting with a modest payout from stocks that keep raising it can end up in a much better position at age 75 than someone who started with a bigger payout that never moved.You have to be willing to take less income today for more income later. If there are other income sources to bridge the gap early in retirement, that usually works. If maximum cash is needed right now, it’s harder to stomach.When high-yield income makes sense and when it doesn’tA 78-year-old doesn’t have a decade for dividend growth to compound into something useful. Someone who retired later, has a shorter expected horizon, or has other assets to fall back on may genuinely need more current income now rather than later.How much high-yield income ends up in the plan matters a lot. When a BDC cuts its distribution, that’s not just a bad quarter on paper. It’s a real hole in next month’s budget if the retirement plan depends on it. Size it at a level the plan can absorb if things go sideways.Most retirement income plans that hold up over time use some blend of current income, growing income, and stable bonds. Income starts workable. It grows. The bonds provide a cushion when markets get rough.

Before adding high-yield income, ask what happens to the monthly budget if that distribution gets cut, and whether the rest of the plan absorbs it.Halfpoint/Getty Images

3 things to figure out before setting a retirement income strategyCalculate real spending from actual household outflows, not salary. Many retirees need less portfolio income than they think because Social Security, pensions, lower taxes, and no more savings contributions cover a meaningful chunk. The number is often smaller than the first estimate.Think in decades, not distributions. The income plan that looks right in year one should still look right in year 10. A flat payout loses real purchasing power every year inflation runs above it. Growth has to be built into the plan somewhere, or the budget quietly shrinks.Before adding high-yield income, ask what happens to the monthly budget if that distribution gets cut, and whether the rest of the plan absorbs it. If the answer is no, the allocation is too big.The question most retirement budgets don’t ask early enoughMost people start with yield. The better question is what that income needs to buy in 10 years, not just today. Those two starting points lead to pretty different portfolios.The gap between them usually shows up around year eight or nine of retirement, when a fixed income that covered everything comfortably starts feeling tight. High yield covered today. Nobody planned for tomorrow.Note: This piece of financial journalism is for educational purposes only and not for formal tax or investment advice.Related: Fidelity says one IRA move could shield late retirement

The French and Italian aren’t the only ones who love wine.While wine might be seen as a fancy drink to have at work parties or to impress your partner’s parents when they invite you over for Thanksgiving dinner, the U.S. is among the top consumers of wine.According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine, Americans’ per-capita wine consumption ranks 15th among major countries, representing just over a quarter of that of France and Italy. Nonetheless, due to its large population, U.S. total consumption ranks first, ahead of both European countries.Grocery giant Kroger has taken note and is hoping to get more shoppers to consider including a bottle or two when buying ingredients for dinner.America’s changing wine habitsThe wine industry has been struggling for a while, as the alcohol habits of younger generations have changed.Being sober is far more common, with sobriety breaks like Dry January gaining popularity. It’s even possible to find cocktail bars that just sell nonalcoholic drinks, according to CNN.How wine consumption has changedAccording to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine, Americans consumed 33.3 hectoliters of wine in 2024, or 16% of the total wine drunk that year, the most of any single country and far outpacing France and Italy.U.S. per-person consumption is relatively low among major countries, however, with Portugal ranking first on that metric.Worldwide, wine drinking is at its lowest level since 1961, largely due to inflationary pressures, the International Organisation of Vine and Wine found.While Americans might be drinking less overall, they are spending a lot more on wine, according to the Robb Report.Grocery stores are taking note of that trend. Last year, VG’s Grocery increased the size of its beer, wine, and spirits department, according to a press release. Whole Foods also offers wine tastings at many locations. And other grocers have also expanded their licenses and offerings to tap into this lucrative market, according to Market Watch.Now Kroger is hoping to tap into a new market of drinkers by revamping its wine aisle.  

Kroger is planning to expand a handful of its stores to include more wine offerings and tastings. Getty Images

Kroger increases wine offeringsKroger plans to roll out a new wine program in 147 stores, according to the Cincinnati Business Courier. There were no details about why these were chosen from Kroger’s 2,700 total stores, or where they are located.The wine departments of the selected stores will be completely revamped, with expanded assortments of wine available. Kroger will offer 130 new wines from well-known wine regions in France and Italy.More retailAmazon is losing the battle for online groceriesCustomer trend sends Kroger, grocery chains worrisome signalWalmart, Albertsons, other retailers accused of inflating gas pricesAccording to the news report, Kroger will also offer Napa Valley wines, with representatives visiting vineyards to test various varieties from the area.Shoppers can also taste wine in the store’s new tasting bars that will be hosted by trained wine sommeliers.“Kroger is making this investment in response to growing customer demand for affordable premium and luxury wines,” the grocer said, according to VinePair.The first wine program was launched July 9 in Newpork, Kentucky, Supermarket News reported. While you can’t sell wine and liquor in grocery stores in Kentucky, grocers like Kroger circumvent this by opening liquor stores next to their supermarkets.Related: Kroger just shook up the supermarket landscape