The Street

Many hopeful homebuyers would love for the housing market to crash in 2026. If home prices plummet, Americans who have been waiting on the sidelines this year could afford to enter the market.

Existing homeowners, on the other hand, would hate for the real estate market to crash. Their homes would drop in value, meaning they would lose equity.

So the question that affects buyers and owners alike is: Will the housing market crash again? And if so, when?

A housing crash typically involves some combination of rapidly falling prices, distressed borrowers, foreclosures, and severe credit problems. Today’s market has significant affordability problems, but it doesn’t have the same combination of risky lending and widespread borrower distress that preceded the 2008 housing crash.

“Today’s market is quite different than the one in 2008,” Corey Burr, senior vice president at TTR Sotheby’s International Realty, told TheStreet. “Cracks in the sub-prime mortgage were becoming apparent as early as 2005, well before the real estate market corrected.”

The housing market is experiencing a correction, not a crash

Between volatile mortgage rates and soaring home prices, the Covid pandemic caused a hectic housing market in the early 2020s. Some have speculated that a housing market crash would be a natural fallout.

But the market isn’t crashing — and economists don’t expect it to anytime soon.

“We’re in the middle of an uneven and long-term housing market correction, not a housing market crash,” Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said in a Redfin article.

“After the pandemic-era frenzy sent prices soaring and inventory to historic lows, the market needed a reset,” she continued. “What we’re seeing now is not a sudden collapse but a yearslong comedown: slower sales, flatter prices in many metros, and buyers getting leverage. It’s largely unaffordable, but it’s not crashing.”

Home prices are no longer spiking like they did during the pandemic

Understandably, people are suspicious about an upcoming housing market crash. Home prices are high, which can lead to crashes in certain situations.

Between 1998 and 2006, the average U.S. home price more than doubled, according to the Federal Reserve.

Home prices during the pandemic gave those from the early-2000s housing bubble a run for their money. National home prices spiked 54.9% between Q1 2020 and Q3 2025, according to a National Association of Homebuilders analysis.

Related: Experts predict mortgage rate, housing market shift

Many people worried that this surge in home prices was creating a new housing bubble. However, prices have started to stabilize in 2026. They haven’t plummeted like they did during the 2008 housing market crash.

That’s a crucial difference. In the 2008 housing crisis, home prices spiked, then nosedived. In the 2020s, prices spiked, then cooled.

“If the market can keep prices stable to slightly up or down over the next three years as inflation cools, it will seem like a more normal market cool off compared to 2008,” Burr told TheStreet.

Economists don’t expect housing prices to drop. J.P. Morgan Global Research predicts home prices will hold steady through the end of 2026, then rise by 3% in 2027.

Mortgage rates are more stable than during a housing bubble

Mortgage rates aren’t necessarily what causes a housing crash, but they can amplify problems when borrowers are already under financial pressure. This is especially true if the falling mortgage rates are tied to a larger recession, as was the case in 2008, according to U.S. News & World Report.

This is another reason people were worried about a housing crash in the early 2020s. Mortgage rates increased quickly in 2022 and 2023, according to Freddie Mac data.

Mortgage rates had been at record lows during the peak of the pandemic. Then the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 3.22% in January 2022 to more than 7% in October. Rates neared 8% in 2023.

True, current mortgage rates are higher than most people would like — they’ve been over 6.5% since mid-July. But they’ve been much more stable in 2026 compared to a few years ago.

August housing forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association both predict mortgage rates will stay between 6.6% and 6.8% through the end of 2027. If these outlooks hold up, that would remove one potential source of major disruption in the housing market.

Mortgage rates jumped from sub-3% in 2021 to almost 8% in 2023.SAUL LOEB / Getty Images

Mortgage lending requirements are stricter than in 2008

Loose lending requirements were a major contributor to the 2008 housing crash. Mortgage lenders approved loans for borrowers with lower credit scores and no down payments. They also required little to no documentation to prove people had the income or assets to repay mortgage loans.

Lenders also offered homebuyers adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), featuring initially lower interest rates that jumped after the first few years. In many cases, lenders did not thoroughly explain the terms of the ARMs to buyers, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

So when their ARM rates spiked, many homeowners could no longer afford their monthly mortgage payments. This led to more foreclosures.

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“When homeowners can’t pay their mortgages, it leads to a wave of foreclosures that will bring down prices,” Burr told TheStreet.

The 2008 housing crash led to numerous updates to lending regulations. Mortgage lenders now have minimum income and credit requirements for borrowers, and ARMs face stricter underwriting standards.

“We are unlikely to see another credit-induced economic collapse given the strict lending standards set in 2010 and strengthened in 2024,” Fairweather told Redfin. “Stronger oversight and more transparent underwriting make the housing market far more resilient than it was two decades ago.”

What would actually have to happen for the housing market to crash?

The housing market probably will not crash anytime soon based on current expert forecasts.

But how can we spot an upcoming housing market crash in the future? Here are some crucial signs:

A spike in unemployment. The job market is fairly strong right now. But the housing market would suffer in two major ways if a lot of Americans lost their jobs in a short period: Fewer people would be able to buy homes, and fewer homeowners could afford their existing mortgage payments.

Surging inventory. When the number of homes for sale significantly exceeds the number of buyers, home values can fall. Then homeowners lose wealth because they owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth.

More foreclosures. Falling behind on mortgage payments can lead to foreclosure, while underwater mortgages can make it harder for homeowners to sell or refinance. Historically, foreclosure rates in the first half of 2026 were relatively low, according to ATTOM data.

Based on current expert forecasts, a housing market crash doesn’t appear imminent. For prospective buyers, that means waiting for a 2008-style collapse may not be the best path to affordability.

Home affordability may improve through slower price growth, increased inventory, or changing mortgage rates rather than through a dramatic collapse in home prices.

Related: Zillow warns 2026 housing market has officially peaked

There’s a reason people pay to shop at warehouse clubs like Sam’s Club and Costco. They expect the membership to pay for itself.

That usually starts with lower prices on groceries, household essentials, and other products bought in bulk. But these days, the competition between the two biggest warehouse clubs is about much more than what’s sitting on the shelf.

It is also about how well each company understands and serves its members.

Walmart is now making a major investment in that area at Sam’s Club.

The company recently shared that it will bring Scintilla, its first-party commerce intelligence platform, to Sam’s Club.

The technology is designed to give merchants and suppliers a much clearer picture of what members are buying and how they shop across physical and digital channels.

That could ultimately make the membership more valuable.

Sam’s Club wants to know what members want next

The idea behind Scintilla is fairly simple. The more information Sam’s Club has about its members, the better decisions it can make about what to sell and how to sell it.

The potential benefits are significant. Better data could help Sam’s Club stock the products members actually want, reduce problems with availability, and identify opportunities for new products or services.

Related: Costco makes key move to expand membership base

“Everything starts with the member and understanding what they need, what they love, and what they’re looking for next,” Sam’s Club Chief Merchant Myron Frazier said in the announcement.

He added that Scintilla should help merchants and suppliers “listen better and act faster.”

Scintilla is expected to be available to Sam’s Club merchants and suppliers beginning in 2027.

Walmart will bring Scintilla, its first-party commerce intelligence platform, to Sam’s Club.Around the World Photos/Shutterstock.com

Costco has a similar challenge

Sam’s Club isn’t operating in a vacuum.

Costco has spent decades building one of the strongest membership models in retail, and the two companies are constantly competing for households looking to save money on everyday purchases.

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There are some notable differences between the clubs, though. 

Costco’s basic membership currently costs $65 a year, while Sam’s Club’s basic membership typically costs $60 per year following a recent increase.  

Costco also has a reputation for its Kirkland Signature private label and a more curated assortment, while Sam’s Club has increasingly emphasized convenience and digital tools.

But both companies rely heavily on membership fee revenue, and that’s what makes member data particularly important.

If Costco learns that its members are looking for a particular product, service, or shopping experience, it can use that information to make the membership more attractive. Sam’s Club is now taking a big step to get better at doing just that. 

A core part of Sam’s Club strategy

Accessing better member data aligns with Sam’s Club’s general strategy, which has historically been quicker to embrace technology than Costco.

Sam’s Club, for example, has been leaning on Scan & Go technology for years to ensure a smoother checkout process, CNBC reported, whereas Costco has been much slower to improve in that area. 

That’s long given Sam’s Club an advantage over its biggest competitor.

Scintilla should help Sam’s Club build on that advantage and better target its members’ needs.

And if Walmart can turn that data into more relevant products, increased availability, and stronger value, it gives Sam’s Club another way to compete with Costco for the most important thing of all — membership fees. 

Maurie Backman owns shares of Walmart.

Related: Target takes big step to be more like Costco

Broad-market index funds in U.S. retirement accounts are poised to increase their holdings in SpaceX at the next rebalancing. That comes despite a 31% decline in July 2026 and insiders recently gaining permission to sell shares, according to a Morningstar report.

When lockup restrictions began lifting on August 6, 2026, 911.5 million SpaceX shares became eligible for sale for the first time.

That wave mechanically expands the company’s float-adjusted market capitalization, the metric major indexes use to size positions.

The next scheduled rebalance is the Nasdaq-100’s September 2026 quarterly rebalance, which TD Securities projects could lift SpaceX’s weight in that index from about 1% to above 3.5%.

FTSE Russell’s next scheduled reconstitution is on December 11, 2026.

How unlocking insider shares forces index funds to buy more SpaceX

SpaceX was added to the Russell 1000 and Nasdaq-100 within weeks of its June initial public offering (IPO), and the December rebalance will decide how much more of it those index funds hold.

The eligible shares that were unlocked represent 143% of the 639 million shares available to public investors shortly after SpaceX’s IPO, Morningstar reported. 

If those shares enter the public float, SpaceX’s float-adjusted market cap would increase 2.43 times with no change in the stock price.

That expansion would push SpaceX into the Russell 1000’s top 100 holdings at roughly 0.20% of the index, alongside CVS Health and Pfizer. 

For context, SpaceX’s $1.4 trillion market cap carried the same 0.08% Russell 1000 weight as Delta Air Lines’ $57 billion valuation, analyzed by Morningstar. The disparity reflected the relatively small number of SpaceX shares available for public trading.

“Index funds will be forced to buy more SpaceX stock just as insiders are selling,” the firm warned in the report. Buying is triggered by float expansion, which is why passive demand can rise in the same quarter the stock falls by 31%.

How SpaceX entered retirement accounts in weeks

SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, raising approximately $75 billion at $135 per share in the largest IPO in Wall Street history. Underwriters held an over-allotment option that could have pushed the total toward $86 billion, but it was not fully exercised.

Within 15 trading days, Nasdaq’s new fast-entry rule placed the stock inside the Nasdaq-100, triggering about $4.3 billion in forced buying from funds tracking the index alone, JPMorgan estimated.

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Owen Lamont, senior vice president at Acadian Asset Management, criticized the compressed timeline before SpaceX listed. “Bad idea. That’s too short for price discovery to occur,” he wrote in a March 2026 analysis.

FTSE Russell added SpaceX to the Russell 1000 during its June 26, 2026, reconstitution. At July 31, 2026, prices, the float expansion could lift SpaceX’s Russell 1000 weight to roughly 0.70% after the rebalance.

SpaceX entered major stock indexes within weeks, forcing retirement funds to buy billions despite critics warning the timeline was too rushed.Bloomberg / Getty Images

Analysts see SpaceX trading well above fair value

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens initiated SpaceX coverage with a fair value estimate of $63 before the June 12 IPO, lowering it to $62 on June 16, placing the stock among the most overvalued names in the firm’s coverage.

After the second-quarter results on August 5, 2026, Owens reaffirmed the figure and noted that shares were trading at roughly twice his valuation, Morningstar’s earnings analysis indicated.

Second-quarter revenue hit $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, but SpaceX still posted a $541 million net loss, according to the SpaceX Q2 earnings release. 

It lost nearly $5 billion in 2025 on $18.7 billion in revenue, largely from a $6.35 billion operating loss in the AI segment that Starlink’s $4.4 billion in operating profit could not offset, Morningstar S-1 analysis showed.

George Noble, who previously ran the Fidelity Overseas Fund and worked under Peter Lynch, told Business Insider that SpaceX and Tesla represented “two of the best shorts in the market” and pegged fair value for both at roughly $30 per share, implying 79% downside for SpaceX at recent trading levels. 

He flagged the way passive index funds channeled retirement savings into the stock as a core structural concern.

The S&P 500 is not joining the SpaceX buying spree

One major benchmark has stayed on the sidelines. The S&P 500 rejected a fast-track inclusion proposal in June 2026, keeping its one-year seasoning period and profitability requirements in place.

Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, told CNBC that S&P’s refusal to bend its rules for SpaceX reinforced the index’s institutional credibility.

It speaks highly of the credibility of S&P Dow Jones Indices to be rules-based and make sure there’s profitability before entrance to the index. Making exceptions because companies are so large and have been private so long yet are still not profitable, didn’t make a great deal of sense

SpaceX cannot enter that index before June 2027, and ongoing losses could push the date further. 

Bloomberg Intelligence data puts direct passive tracking of the S&P 500 at roughly $7.5 trillion in assets. Another $3.4 trillion in actively managed funds use the index as their benchmark, without current SpaceX exposure.

What growing SpaceX exposure means for retirement accounts

Millions of Americans who never bought a share of SpaceX already own it through their 401(k) or IRA index funds.

The Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000, MSCI USA, and Morningstar US Total Market all hold SpaceX and are expected to increase their weightings at December’s rebalance. 

At a 0.14% weighting, Vanguard’s $2.3 trillion Total Stock Market ETF alone held over $3.2 billion in SpaceX as of late June. 

When 911 million newly unlocked insider shares enter the float calculation, those positions grow automatically, none of it flagged on a quarterly statement. 

That means retirement portfolios are mechanically adding to a stock Morningstar values at roughly half its trading price, with ongoing losses and further lockup tranches ahead.

The S&P 500 remains the one major benchmark that excludes SpaceX, and actively managed funds retain discretion over whether to hold it.

Related: Top analyst sees trouble looming for SpaceX stock

In January, Mark Zuckerberg and his top executives gathered at his Hawaii compound for their annual leadership retreat. What they planned there never made it to the public. Until now.

Reuters published a special report on Aug. 26, based on scores of internal documents, recordings, and more than 20 interviews, that lays out what Zuckerberg was actually trying to do and why it fell apart.

Meta Project OT plan to replace employees with AI agents

The initiative was code-named Project OT, short for Organization Transformation. The plan envisioned an “AI native” future for Meta, in which AI would take over much of the work performed by thousands of human employees, with smaller, “talent-dense” groups of human staff overseeing virtual workers, Reuters reported.

Some teams were being evaluated for cuts of as much as 60%. The restructuring was designed in two waves. The first would begin in May. The second would follow in November, targeting a broader set of roles across the company, according to Reuters.

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Meta employed roughly 79,000 people at the time. A 20% reduction, which was among the scenarios being discussed, would have eliminated around 16,000 jobs, according to Barchart.

On the night of May 19, hours before the first wave of layoffs was scheduled to begin, Zuckerberg pulled back. Meta proceeded with roughly 8,000 job cuts, about 10% of its workforce, the following day. The November wave was canceled.

Zuckerberg subsequently told remaining employees he did “not expect other company-wide layoffs this year,” Reuters noted.

Why Meta’s AI replacement plan unraveled

The reversal came as internal data was raising serious questions about whether the technology was working.

Employees were generating far more code using AI tools. Code changes to Meta’s software platforms and infrastructure rose 220% year over year. But changes resulting in new or upgraded features that users could actually see rose just 36%, IBTimes reported.

The productivity gap was only part of the problem. Meta had also introduced tracking software on U.S. employees’ devices, capturing keystrokes and mouse clicks to train AI agents to reproduce human workflows.

The move contributed to what Reuters described as an open revolt among staff, who had become convinced that the company’s AI transformation initiatives were partly aimed at replacing them.

Meta’s Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth clashed with some employees about how the company was handling the transition. Internally, Meta was simultaneously trying to identify what it called “Irreplaceable Talent,” a designation intended to protect key personnel from cuts, even as it was exploring broad reductions elsewhere, according to The Globe and Mail.

Meta confirmed the existence of Project OT after Reuters presented its findings, describing it as a yearlong project focused on cost-cutting, redesigning team structures, and shifting staff into new priority areas, including producing training data for its AI models.

Meta’s Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth clashed with some employees about how the company was handling the transition.Benjamin/Getty Images

Zuckerberg’s CEO agent and Meta’s AI strategy

While the company was pulling back from its most aggressive workforce reduction plans, Zuckerberg was building something for himself.

He has been using a personal AI agent, described internally as a “CEO agent,” that allows him to retrieve answers he would typically have to go through multiple layers of staff to get, Euronews reported.

That detail is not incidental. If the CEO’s own AI agent can compress decision chains that previously required layers of staff, the same logic applies everywhere in the organization. Zuckerberg told analysts on a January earnings call that he was already seeing projects that used to require big teams now accomplished by a single talented person, according to Barchart.

Meta’s internally developed AI-native groups have reporting structures with as many as 50 individual contributors per manager. Employee use of AI tools is now factored into performance reviews. The direction of travel is clear, even if the pace has slowed.

What Meta’s AI workforce shift means for employees and investors

For employees, the lesson from Project OT is that the risk of AI displacement at Meta is real and ongoing, even if the most aggressive version of the plan was walked back. The company is still restructuring around the premise that AI can absorb work that humans currently perform.

For investors, the more pressing question is the productivity problem the internal data revealed. Meta has spent aggressively on AI. Code generation is up dramatically. But the products users actually see have not kept pace.

That gap between AI investment and user-facing output is the number that matters most heading into Meta’s next earnings cycle.

The Oakland trial over alleged addictive design targeting children is already weighing on the stock, as TheStreet reported.

A workforce strategy that generated internal unrest and produced mixed productivity results adds another layer of complexity to a company that is simultaneously fighting a major legal battle and trying to remake itself around technology it has not yet fully proven.

Related: Mark Zuckerberg, Microsoft CEO just made major AI decision

Located deep inside the Upper Peninsula of Michigan in the northwest corner of Lake Superior, Isle Royale is one of the most remote national parks on the U.S. mainland.

Getting there is only possible by seaplane or a ferry from Minnesota or northern Michigan while the park itself is a single rugged island without any roads or cars.

As a result, only 29,091 recreational visitors came to Isle Royale in 2025, compared to the millions who come to popular parks like Great Smoky Mountains, Zion and Yellowstone. Most who make it out to Isle Royale are either hardcore wilderness hikers or scientists research its wolf and moose populations (the isolated nature of the park makes their predator-prey relationship an invaluable study tool for scientists).

Isle Royale National park closes four campsites over wolf threat

With ferry and seaplane companies offering limited trips in a single day, most who come out to Isle Royale end up staying several nights on a campsite or the island’s only hotel, the Rock Harbor Lodge.

Higher rates of wolf activity this year have led to the National Park Service (NPS) shutting down four campsites before the end of the summer season. With extreme weather making the island largely inaccessible during the winter months, Isle Royale closes to visitors between November and April every year.

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“Starting Aug. 28 and continuing until the park closes on Oct. 31, tent and group campsites and hammock use will be prohibited at Three Mile, Daisy Farm, Moskey Basin and Caribou Island,” the NPS said of the decision to close four campsites prematurely. “Tent and hammock camping are not permitted anywhere within these campgrounds. Off-trail camping zones surrounding these campgrounds will also be closed until the end of the season.”

32 remaining campsites spread throughout Isle Royale currently remain open throughout October although the NPS has had to suddenly close down different locations for limited periods three times this year as wolf activity rose.

Isle Royale National Park is home to a unparalleled population of wolves and moose.Shutterstock

“Reports of wolves being interested in tents at these campgrounds”: NPS

“The park continues to receive reports of wolves being interested in tents at these campgrounds, pawing and digging at tents and entering tents to drag packs and sleeping pads away,” the NPS statement reads further.

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Three Mile and Rock Harbor campgrounds have seen the highest rates of wolves coming up to tents and, as a result, the park installed a cage in which campers were required to store their backpacks. The park already requires any food, trash, and items with a strong scent to be kept in storage lockers throughout the stay.

As wolf activity rose, it became easier to close several campsites in the eastern part of the park entirely. Due to Isle Royale’s isolated nature, it has limited rangers and rescue staff to respond to emergencies.

Park Superintendent Denice Swanke also said that the closures are a precautionary measure while for those staying at the lodge or other camping grounds, fall remains “a lovely time to visit the park.”

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Cruising giants Royal Caribbean and Carnival dominate the world of cruises that leave from South Florida and sail around the Caribbean.

Still, it didn’t take long for Margaritaville at Sea to build a smaller but very loyal community of cruisers. This comes four years after the cruise line themed around Jimmy Buffett’s island-vibe restaurant and resort brand launched in 2022.

The cruise line currently has a fleet of two passenger ships, the Margaritaville At Sea Islander and the Margaritaville At Sea Paradise. It sails out of Tampa and Palm Beach, with itineraries that include Key West and Mexico, as well as Caribbean destinations such as Aruba, Curaçao, and the Dominican Republic.

The 3,460-passenger Beachcomber will also join Margaritaville’s fleet as its newest and largest ship with a maiden sailing out of Miami on Jan. 9, 2027.

Margaritaville at Sea will start sailing out of Galveston by October 2027

As part of its efforts to reach sailers from different parts of the country, the cruise line also just announced that it will start sailing out of Galveston on the Gulf Coast of Texas in October 2027.

The new embarkation port was announced together with the Port of Galveston, which confirmed that it signed a contract to add Margaritaville At Sea to the six other cruise lines sailing from the city. The contract is for one year with the option to renew for two additional five-year terms, depending on how things go.

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With mroe than 3.6 million cruise passengers passing through it in 2025, the Port of Galveston is the fourth-busiest cruise port in the U.S. and the ninth-busiest in the world.

The sailings will embark on itineraries stopping in the Caribbean and Central America, although Margaritaville At Sea has not yet confirmed which of the three ships in its fleet will sail out of Galveston.

Specific sailings and the opportunity to book one’s spot will also become available closer to the start date.

The Port of Galveston processed more than 3.6 million cruise passengers last year.Getty

“Trade Texas highways for open water”: Margaritaville At Sea on new Galveston homeport

“Our new Galveston sailings will make it easier than ever to trade Texas highways for open water, island time, and a few Boat Drinks along the way,” the cruise line said in announcing the new embarkation port.

Margaritaville At Sea chief executive Christopher Ivy also called Galveston “an important and growing cruise gateway” that is “a significant step in the continued expansion of our brand.”

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The Margaritaville brand expanded to more than 30 restaurants and 40 resorts and vacation property communities by leaning into Buffett’s original “5 o’clock somewhere” song lyric to create a vibe built around island fun, music, and permission to slow down and enjoy the moment.

The cruise expansion was envisioned as a more budget-friendly option for smaller groups of travelers with a common interest in alternatives to major cruise lines.

Many of the restaurants, bars, and lounge areas on the ships are also a blast for hardcore Buffett music fans, featuring names like the “Cheeseburger in Paradise Burger Bar,” the “Havana Daydreamin’ Sports Bar and Lounge” and the “Bubbles Up Lounge and Champagne Bar.”

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Nvidia (NVDA) just posted another banger earnings report on Aug. 26, blowing past Wall Street’s expectations as sales more than doubled and adjusted profit handily cleared estimates.

Then Raymond James raised the temperature further when the firm’s 5-star analyst Simon Leopold dropped an eye-popping new Nvidia price target, which is comfortably above other major Wall Street forecasts. 

Investors responded with force post earnings, as, per Bloomberg, Nvidia stock jumped 8.7% the following session to $227.9. This added $442 billion in market value, while finishing just below its record close after another punishing choppy stretch.

Moreover, it’s important to note that Leopold’s call lands after Nvidia stock has gained nearly 21% year to date and around 8% over the past three months, according to Seeking Alpha, despite concerns that AI spending, competition, and elevated memory costs might slow the company’s momentum.

Leopold believes Wall Street is still underestimating Nvidia’s massive scale and sees supply, rather than customer demand, as arguably the biggest obstacle ahead.

Nvidia’s $515 target towers over the rest of Wall Street 

According to TheFly, Raymond James analyst Leopold bumped its price target to a Wall Street high of $515 from $352, a massive 46% increase, while reiterating a Strong Buy rating.

Using Nvidia’s latest closing price of $227.98, the target implies 126% upside. More strikingly, it values Nvidia at $12.4 trillion, assuming share count remains broadly unchanged. 

That’s over twice the company’s current $5.49 trillion market capitalization. 

What’s interesting is that Leopold’s call is remarkably aggressive even within an overwhelmingly bullish analyst community.

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Wall Street’s consensus is at $322.95, with forecasting ranging from $180 to $515. Leopold’s target is over 50% higher than the consensus target.

JPMorgan, Citi, Morgan Stanley, and UBS all bumped their targets following the report, but none came remotely close to Raymond James. Even Evercore’s exceptionally high $465 forecast is 10.8% below Leopold’s call.

Here’s a list of major bank analysts’ ratings following the earnings report: 

Raymond James: $515 price target, implying 125.9% upside.

Evercore ISI: $465 price target, implying 104% upside.

Bernstein: $400 price target, implying 75.5% upside.

JPMorgan: $320 price target, implying 40.4% upside.

Citi: $315 price target, implying 38.2% upside.

Morgan Stanley: $300 price target, implying 31.6% upside.Source: MarketScreener.

Clearly, the difference isn’t simply a more generous valuation multiple. Leopold is modeling an earnings and sales trajectory that’s comfortably higher than Wall Street’s current assumptions.

Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold raises Nvidia’s price target after blockbuster earnings.Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Why Simon Leopold sees $1T in Nvidia revenue

At the core of Leopold’s argument is that for Nvidia, the problem isn’t demand; it’s actually supply. 

Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 sales skyrocketed 106% to $96.2 billion, exceeding Leopold’s $92.3 billion estimate. Moreover, adjusted earnings climbed 120% to $2.22 per share, while data center revenue leapt up 117% to $89 billion, representing 92.5% of total sales.

The outlook was perhaps more consequential. 

Nvidia guided for $108 billion in October-quarter sales, topping Wall Street’s $104.86 billion expectation, and projected 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028.

Analysts had modeled only 44% to 45%, and management indicated demand might support growth closer to 100%, but memory shortages and other components continue constricting shipments.

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Jensen Huang summarized that shift directly:

“AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue.”

He also talked about the immediate obstacle: “Our entire supply chain is challenged.”

For Leopold, that constraint is linked to deferred sales instead of weakening interest. If Nvidia can continue to secure more memory, packaging, networking equipment, and manufacturing capacity, it will convert the lion’s share of existing demand into sales.

He believes that dynamic may eventually push annual sales toward $1 trillion by January 2029, over 33% above FactSet’s consensus of just under $750 billion.

Vera Rubin strengthens that argument even more. 

The platform entered production with massive orders from every major hyperscaler and AI cloud provider. On top of that, Nvidia expects Rubin to generate nearly 20% of data-center revenue this quarter. Moreover, its Vera server CPU is scaling quick, with orders pointing to a $20 billion run rate and sales expected to more than double in fiscal 2028.

Additionally, Leopold expects non-hyperscaler sales to grow faster than hyperscaler sales, broadening Nvidia’s growth beyond Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta (META) to AI laboratories, enterprises, and specialized clouds.

Nvidia’s $515 target demands near-perfect execution

Raymond James’ $515 target is best described as a bull case, not a price that investors might chase after Nvidia’s post-earnings bump.

Leopold is applying a 22-times multiple to his calendar 2028 earnings estimate, which implies $23.41 in earnings per share. At Nvidia’s current price, the stock trades at around 9.7 times that distant estimate, which makes it attractive if those forecasts prove accurate. However, small changes in either assumption could dramatically alter the valuation. 

If 2028 earnings fall 20% short and investors apply an 18-times multiple, the resulting value drops to around $337, a lot closer to Wall Street’s consensus target.

Several risks could lead to that outcome. 

Nvidia made a whopping $279 billion in supply and capacity commitments in securing scarce components, according to WSJ reporting. 

Those commitments might support growth as demand remains strong but might become burdensome if AI infrastructure spending slows down. Rising memory costs are expected to push gross margin from 75% toward 71% to 72% before a potential recovery next year.

Moreover, it’s important to note that Nvidia is an investor, supplier, and financial backstop for its own ecosystem. Its guarantees include more than $105 billion connected to SB Energy, per Reuters, and an OpenAI data center project, along with $3.5 billion of maximum exposure linked to other AI-cloud leases. 

These arrangements can deepen customer loyalty but also blur the distinction between independent demand and demand backed by Nvidia’s balance sheet.

Other risks include one customer representing a sizable 16% of quarterly sales, growing competition from AMD and hyperscalers’ custom chips, and an October-quarter outlook that includes no data-center sales in China.

Existing shareholders can still reasonably maintain a core position but should avoid allowing the massive price target to justify the excessive concentration. New investors might be better served building exposure gradually, and tracking assumptions behind Leopold’s strong model 

The key markers will be Vera Rubin reaching nearly 20% of near-term data-center sales, fiscal 2028 growth remaining around 70%, gross margins stabilizing over 72%, and supply availability improving and non-hyperscaler growth remaining robust without increasingly aggressive financing.

Related: Jim Cramer resets investors biggest Nvidia fear 

Wall Street’s biggest bank just delivered a message that sounds contradictory at first. Chip stocks could fall further from here, and that is not necessarily bad news, according to one of the sector’s most closely watched analysts.

The call came two days before Nvidia reported earnings on Aug. 26. Nvidia beat on every key metric and guided ahead of consensus for Q3. But what Bank of America was telling investors going into that report was more nuanced than a simple read on the earnings print.

Bank of America sees 10% more SOX downside

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya, who ranks 229 out of more than 12,000 analysts tracked by TipRanks with a 58% success rate, sees roughly 10% further downside risk for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX).

A decline of that size would push the SOX back to its valuation discount versus the S&P 500 before ChatGPT’s debut in November 2022, CNBC reported.

Several factors are weighing on the group in the near term. Arya pointed to rising interest rates, public pushback on data center projects, geopolitical tension, worries over circular financing arrangements between AI companies, and heavy investor positioning, with chips now running about 13% overweight against the broader S&P 500.

The data center backlash has moved beyond social media. New York put a moratorium on large-scale projects. Pennsylvania started restricting approvals. Texas launched grid audits.

A year ago, none of that was happening. Now it is a real variable impacting how quickly AI infrastructure actually gets built.

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“Though unjustified on fundamentals, we see another 10% downside risk to the SOX,” Arya wrote, adding that fourth-quarter and first-quarter seasonality has historically been strongly bullish, and that the sector’s 20 times forward earnings multiple looks cheap against a 70% earnings compound annual growth rate through 2028.

Bank of America named eight stocks it considers enhanced buying opportunities if the pullback plays out: Nvidia, Marvell, Micron, Lam Research, AMD, Intel, Analog Devices, and ON Semiconductor.

What Nvidia’s earnings beat means for chip stock investors

Nvidia reported quarterly results on Aug. 26, beating estimates across the board. Revenue came in at $96.22 billion, ahead of the $92.37 billion consensus, and up 106% year over year. Adjusted EPS hit $2.22 against a $2.09 estimate. Q3 guidance of $108 billion also topped the $104.6 billion consensus.

The stock dipped briefly after hours before recovering, as MSN reported. Bank of America’s concern going into the print was that the earnings beat alone would not be enough to resolve the deeper issue around how Nvidia spends its cash.

“The core worry is that NVDA’s seemingly open-ended checkbook to fund customers and suppliers is diluting earnings quality and potentially inflating higher-risk investments,” Arya wrote, while acknowledging the strategy serves both offensive and defensive purposes for the company, according to Investing.com.

His proposed fix borrows from a familiar playbook. Arya thinks Nvidia could follow the same path Apple took after 2012, lifting cash returned to shareholders from around 37% of free cash flow to 75% or more, a move he argues would create a reliable buyer for the stock and ease concerns about its AI ecosystem investments.

That framing lines up with a separate valuation call. Going into earnings, Nvidia shares traded at a roughly 40% to 50% discount to AI compute peers on an enterprise value to free cash flow basis, and a 31% to 36% discount to the S&P 500 on the same measure.

Arya has called this gap overstated, given the risks tied to Nvidia’s investments in companies including OpenAI and Anthropic.

Arya’s bigger concern centers on how Nvidia spends its cash.Patrick/Getty Images

Bank of America raises AI data center forecast to $2.2 trillion

Bank of America’s bigger picture view rests on continued strength in AI infrastructure spending for years to come, even if the stocks themselves see a near-term dip.

Following Q2 earnings, the bank lifted its AI data center total addressable market forecast to roughly $2.2 trillion by 2030, with AI accelerators accounting for the largest share at roughly $1.2 trillion, followed by networking at around $316 billion and data center CPUs at approximately $110 billion, Investing.com reported.

That forecast keeps climbing. Bank of America had projected the same market would only reach $1.7 trillion by 2030 as of May, up from an even earlier estimate of $1.4 trillion, according to TheStreet. The bank has raised its own numbers twice in a matter of weeks, reflecting how fast the demand picture is evolving.

Flagship Nvidia GPUs are renting at near all-time highs, a sign that supply still has not caught up with AI-related demand. Memory stocks are also showing what that demand looks like in practice, with Micron among the biggest beneficiaries of the AI memory cycle.

What chip stock investors should watch next

Positioning is the risk most likely to amplify any near-term sell-off. Chip stocks are already running about 13% overweight relative to the S&P 500. A shift in sentiment could trigger outsized selling, even if the underlying fundamentals hold up.

Among the eight names Bank of America highlighted, Micron and Lam Research stand out as the bank’s favorite long-term picks, described as reliable picks-and-shovels plays across various phases of AI and tech inflections.

Equipment suppliers such as Lam Research stand to benefit as memory makers and foundries expand capacity to meet demand, a trend that holds regardless of which chipmaker ultimately wins the AI compute race.

Nvidia’s report delivered the beat the market expected, but the stock’s initial dip and recovery underlined Bank of America’s pre-earnings caution: execution is now a prerequisite, not a catalyst.

The bank’s concern about earnings quality and circular financing did not disappear with the strong quarter. Those questions carry into Q3 as Nvidia guides to $108 billion in revenue and the AI infrastructure buildout continues at full pace.

Related: JPMorgan sends another strong message to stock market investors

Costco has one of the most loyal customer bases in retail, and there’s a good reason for that.

Members tend to believe they’re getting exceptional value for their money, whether it’s bulk products, home services, or eyeglasses.

But Costco’s value proposition also extends to some of the smaller purchases members have come to love.

The bakery is a perfect example.

Costco’s bakery has become a destination for members looking for inexpensive treats and celebration foods, but its cakes are arguably the biggest attraction. The retailer’s famously large sheet cakes offer a lot of servings at a price that can be difficult for traditional bakeries to match.

Now, Costco is making those cakes even easier to get.

Costco cakes can now come to you

For the first time, Costco customers can order custom cakes and party platters for delivery through Instacart.

The new service, announced Aug. 26, allows customers to order Costco’s custom sheet cakes and 10-inch round cakes online and have them delivered from warehouse locations nationwide. The selection also includes sandwich platters, shrimp trays, fruit platters, and other party foods.

Related: Discontinued Costco member favorite returns to shelves

Customers can customize their cakes online and place their orders in advance, which could be particularly useful for birthdays, graduations, office celebrations, and other events where planning ahead matters.

“For nearly a decade, we’ve worked closely with Costco to expand the ways their members can shop online, and this is another exciting step in that partnership,” said Ryan Hamburger, chief commercial officer at Instacart. 

“We’re proud to bring Costco’s beloved made-to-order bakery and deli to sameday.costco.com and the Instacart marketplace.”

Customers can now order Costco’s custom sheet cakes and 10-inch round cakes online and have them delivered through Instacart.Instacart

A big change that reflects a greater shift

Previously, getting one of Costco’s custom cakes generally meant making a trip to the warehouse to place and pick up the order. Now, members can handle the entire process online.

The change may seem small, but it removes one of the few inconveniences associated with one of Costco’s most popular bakery offerings.

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More importantly, it shows just how much Costco is increasingly using technology to make life more convenient for members, without abandoning the warehouse experience that remains central to the company.

The technology behind the new service is Instacart’s FoodStorm order management platform. It connects Costco’s bakery and deli teams directly with online orders, allowing employees to receive customized cake and platter requests and fulfill them for delivery. 

That’s an important development for a retailer like Costco.

A warehouse club built around enormous stores and high-volume shopping isn’t necessarily the easiest business to move online. The fact that Costco is prioritizing changes like this shows how in tune it is with members’ needs.

The move also aligns with Costco’s broad strategy. 

“In digital, we are making meaningful strides to deliver a more seamless and convenient experience for our members across the warehouse and online,” CEO Ron Vachris said during the company’s most recent earnings call.

For a company that relies heavily on membership fee revenue, it’s a strategic choice. And for members who prioritize convenience, it’s a definite win.

Maurie Backman owns shares of Costco.

Related: Target takes big step to be more like Costco

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Why we love this deal

I don’t know about you, but there’s nothing like the feeling of brand new bedding. For starters, it gives your room an entirely new look with only a handful of pieces. It can be much cheaper to buy a new bedding set than to invest in new furniture. Then, there’s the feeling. If you play your cards right, you can get a set that feels super soft and high quality, without breaking the bank.

The Sasttie 7-Piece Comforter Set is the perfect example. During a limited-time deal, Amazon Prime members can get the set for only $30. With a regular price of $36, it’s 17% off. But with matching sheets and a comforter that shoppers rave about, it’s a discount you’re going to want to get before it’s gone.

Sasttie 7-Piece Comforter Set, $30 (was $36) at Amazon

Courtesy of Amazon

Shop at Amazon

Why do shoppers love it?

Complete with seven pieces, this bed-in-bag-style set comes with all the necessary elements to transform your bed. It comes with a comforter, a flat sheet, a fitted sheet, two shams, and three pillowcases, which is impressive for the price. One comforter or one standard four-piece sheet set can cost just as much, if not more. So getting it all for only $30 is a steal.

For that super soft feeling, the bedding went through a specialized pre-washing process to get a matte finish with subtle texture. It makes the bedding look lived-in, making it all the more cozy. The sheets are also double-brushed for maximum comfort, which feels soft to the touch. Matching the comforter perfectly, the set can make a bed look cohesive and put-together.

The comforter really blew customers away, with its cloud-like comfort that looks fluffy and comforting, but remains lightweight and breathable enough for year-round use. And if you need a little extra warmth during the colder months, you can add a quilt or blanket as an extra layer.

Related: Amazon’s $30 7-piece quilted comforter set comes with matching sheets

Details to know

Sizes: Full, queen, and king.

Colors: 10.

Material: Polyester.

According to Amazon shoppers, this is a quality set “for anyone looking to refresh a bedroom with a clean, aesthetic look without spending much,” wrote one customer. In fact, one reviewer even said, “The comforter alone is worth the price.”

“This seven-piece comforter set is perfect for any bedroom or dorm room! It includes everything you need for a cozy, coordinated look,” a reviewer said. “The comforter is soft, lightweight, and comfortable, and the matching pieces instantly make the room feel put together.”

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For only $30, the Sasttie 7-Piece Comforter Set gets you not just a comforter, but also matching sheets and pillowcases, which is more than enough to make over your bedroom.