The Street

Wall Street has spent much of 2026 debating whether AMD is an Nvidia alternative or a genuinely different bet. On Aug. 25, one of the Street’s higher-ranked chip analysts made his position clear.

AMD shares jumped roughly 4% on the day. The upgrade came with a specific argument about where server chip revenue is headed that goes well beyond the usual AI trade.

Raymond James upgrades AMD to Strong Buy, raises price target

Simon Leopold, Raymond James’ semiconductor analyst, upgraded AMD to Strong Buy from Outperform and raised his price target to $641 from $565 on Aug. 25, implying roughly 40% upside from AMD’s closing price that day, CNBC reported.

Leopold ranks 120th out of 12,496 analysts tracked by TipRanks, with a 60% success rate and an average return of 30% per rating. His $641 target sits above the consensus average of roughly $613 across all analysts covering AMD.

Read more AMD:

AMD filling reveals unexpected SpaceX and Nutanix bet

Nvidia dominates AI chips, but BOFA sees AMD closing in

Does AMD pay dividends? How the chipmaker spends its money

“AMD offers the strongest combination of direct earnings leverage, datacenter positioning, and market-share gains,” Leopold wrote in his note. Then he added a sentence that landed harder than the price target itself: “AMD’s growth should enable it to overtake Intel during 2027.”

AMD is up roughly 113% year to date heading into the upgrade. The stock had already been one of the better-performing semiconductor names in 2026 before the Aug. 25 move.

AMD server CPU revenue forecasted to hit estimated $201 billion or more by 2030

The center of Leopold’s argument is not AMD’s AI accelerator business. It is server CPUs, a part of the market that tends to get less attention than graphics chips but which he thinks is about to get much more profitable for AMD.

Raymond James forecasts server CPU revenue growing at a 44% compound annual rate to roughly $201 billion by 2030. Leopold’s own forecast is slightly below AMD’s internal estimate of $220 billion. He noted that his number could close that gap if agentic AI is adopted faster than he currently models, according to Benzinga.

The logic is straightforward. AI factories need accelerators to train and run models. But those accelerators still need powerful CPUs to coordinate tasks and manage data.

As enterprises deploy more agentic systems, those multi-step workflows need even more CPU coordination. That is where AMD’s EPYC processors come in.

BMO Capital recently said AMD is on the “verge of becoming a complete AI infrastructure provider,” citing the Helios AI rack as a product that could help it gain share against Nvidia, as StockTwits reported.

Microsoft will deploy Helios across Azure AI services beginning in the second half of 2026. Anthropic has also signed a major deal with AMD that significantly expands the chipmaker’s push into AI infrastructure.

At current prices AMD trades at roughly 41 times projected earnings.Caroline/Getty Images

AMD data center revenue up, EPYC gains market share against rival Intel Xeon

The upgrade also rests on AMD’s recent execution. Data center revenue surged in the second quarter to $6.7 billion, up 107% year over year. That accounted for more than half of AMD’s total quarterly revenue of $11.54 billion, which itself rose 50% year over year.

AMD’s server CPU market share has been moving in one direction. Its overall x86 processor shipment share reached 30.7% in the second quarter, while Intel’s fell to 69.3%.

AMD’s server-specific share rose to 34.5%, up 7.3 percentage points from a year earlier. Intel’s server share fell to 65.5%, according to Tom’s Hardware.

Related: AMD’s stock split history (& prospects) explained

When comparing EPYC against Intel’s Xeon directly, AMD’s server share rises as high as 46.4%, Mercury Research President Dean McCarron noted, according to Tom’s Hardware.

Intel is still the larger supplier. But every percentage point AMD takes is revenue that did not exist in AMD’s model a year ago.

AMD stock risks valuation and what investors should watch in 2026

Leopold’s bull case has a long list of moving parts. SpaceX chose Nvidia exclusively for its orbital AI infrastructure. Custom silicon from Microsoft and Google keeps getting better. Intel is not standing still.

And agentic AI, the part of the thesis that pushes the server CPU market to $201 billion, could roll out slower than anyone’s model assumes right now.

At current prices, AMD trades at roughly 41 times projected earnings. Getting to $641 means crossing a trillion-dollar market cap. That requires earnings growth to outrun revenue growth for years.

Leopold thinks that will happen. The next few earnings reports will say whether he is right.

The three numbers worth tracking are data center revenue, EPYC server processor revenue, and gross margins. Data center revenue is where AMD has been winning, but the pace needs to hold.

EPYC is the specific product driving Intel share losses. Any sign the gap is narrowing would put the 2027 overtake prediction in question. Gross margins will show whether AMD is growing profitably or buying share at the expense of earnings quality.

Nvidia reports on Aug. 26. Any commentary from Jensen Huang on AI infrastructure demand or server CPU competition will land directly on Leopold’s thesis.

A strong Nvidia quarter reinforces the bull case for the whole sector. A cautious outlook does the opposite.

Related: 5-star analyst resets AMD stock price target

A popular sports bar and grill chain has abruptly closed four restaurants, cutting its footprint by 20%, less than two years after a new owner acquired the brand.

The closures come as restaurant chains across the country continue to deal with severe challenges stemming from rising food and labor costs, shifting consumer habits, and aggressive competition for diners. 

Full-service restaurants are feeling more pressure as they rely heavily on front-of-house staffing, table service, and bar staff. Moreover, full-service restaurants earn 3%-5% net, versus 6%-9% for fast-casual concepts and quick-service restaurants, on a scale where net margin above 6% is considered strong, according to data from Bloom Intelligence. 

Founded in 1997 in Hickory, North Carolina, Hickory Tavern is a sports bar and grill family restaurant chain popular for its saucy wings, flatbreads, loaded nachos, and mozzarella sticks. Aside from food, the bar was often seen as a popular neighborhood gathering place. 

Hickory Tavern suddenly shuts 4 restaurant locations for good 

Hickory Tavern abruptly closed four locations, leaving the chain with 16 remaining across the Carolinas, reported FSR Magazine. 

The affected locations include:

Mooresville, NC: 115 Morrison Plantation Pkwy, Mooresville, NC 28117 

Huntersville, NC: 9526 Birkdale Crossing Dr, Suite 30, Huntersville, NC 28078

Providence Road (Charlotte, NC): 11504 Providence Rd, Suite N, Charlotte, NC 28277

Columbia Vista (Columbia, SC): 907 Senate St, Columbia, SC 29201

Related: 125-year-old mall retail anchor closes discount outlet, cuts 101 jobs

Its parent company, Artistry Restaurants, now remains with 16 Hickory Tavern locations, including 11 locations in North Carolina and five in South Carolina. Artistry’s portfolio also includes Oak & Stone, Shrimp Basket, Boca, Atlantic Beer & Oyster, Sandbar Amelia Island, and The Chapman.  

Loyal customers at these closed locations have several alternatives under the current footprint. The company itself suggested they visit Hickory Tavern nearby locations in Harris, Ballantyne, Sun Valley, North Carolina, and Columbia-Woodhill, South Carolina.

Closures as a means to better direct resources and strengthen the brand 

Artistry explained that the reason for closures stems from the need to better direct their resources and the proximity to other Hickory Tavern restaurants played a role in the decision which locations to close. 

“While never an easy decision, it is important that we regularly evaluate where we can operate more efficiently so our resources and future investments are directed toward the priorities that will best serve our teams and guests,” Artistry Restaurants CEO Bryan Lockwood said in a statement. 

“These changes, along with other efficiencies, will support Hickory Tavern’s long-term plan and strength as a brand,” Lockwood added. 

Hickory Tavern got a new owner 19 months ago 

Originally launched by Brad Smith and Tom Hager, Hickory Tavern grew from a single local gathering spot into a regional footprint that peaked at roughly 25 locations prior to 2020, according to Business North Carolina. Over the years, the chain positioned itself as more than a standard sports bar due to its menu offering and customer service. 

In January 2025, Artistry acquired Hickory Tavern and started investing in the brand by employing various changes, from menu upgrades to restaurant redesigns. Moreover, the company introduced a new brand book of standards and practices and also teamed up with various companies, such as food distributor Sysco to streamline consistency across its footprint. 

Those initiatives aimed to strengthen the brand and enhance the guest experience.

“Even though we’re slated as a sports bar, I think we’re bigger than that and the community feels that. That’s why we’ve always pitched ourselves as this neighborhood gathering spot,” Tony Read, the brand president with decades of experience in the industry (Outback Steakhouse) previously told FSR Magazine. 

Read’s main focus is on enhancing the guest experience by improving the employee experience, stressing how the two are closely connected. 

“I’m a firm believer that the guest experience will never exceed the team member’s experience,” Read continued. “You ever go to a drive-thru, and you get to the window — how long does it take you to recognize if that person wants to be there or not? Immediately. And what I tell my team is how foolish of us to think that our customers don’t have that same ability.”

The company said that they are looking into transferring as many employees as possible to other Hickory Tavern locations. 

Sports bar, full-service restaurants battle several challenges 

The restaurant industry in general has been facing many challenges over the last couple of years. For many, the fatal blow was the pandemic, others that survived remained severely challenged and a small number managed to fully recover and thrive. 

In fact, nearly half (42%) of restaurant owners admitted their business was not profitable in 2025, and more than nine in 10 operators cited food, labor, insurance, energy and swipe fees as the greatest obstacles, according to the National Restaurant Association. 

There’s however a significant divide between types of restaurants, and cuisines they are serving. For example, I previously wrote about a set of unique challenges Italian restaurants are facing. 

Here’s some of my previous coverage of store closures:

Fast-food chain quietly exits an entire state after 50 years

114-year-old bakery chain closes 19 locations

125-year-old mall retail anchor closes discount outlet, cuts 101 jobs

Now, there’s also an important distinction between full-service and fast-casual and quick service restaurants. 

Median labor costs for full-service restaurants run at 36.5% of sales (with overall prime costs hovering around the upper safe limit of 65%). By contrast, fast-casual and quick-service operations maintain significantly leaner labor models at 25%–33% of revenue, according to financial benchmark data published by WhippleWood CPAs. 

Estimates vary by source: Bloom Intelligence puts full-service net margins at 3–5%, while WhippleWood CPAs estimates a broader 3–8% range for 2026.

Current 2026 industry ranges for profit margins vary by restaurant type:

Full-service restaurants: 3%–8%

Fast casual restaurants: 4%–10%

Quick-service restaurants: 5%–12%

Industry standards for restaurant sales per square foot:

Full-service restaurants: $150 per square foot minimum; $250–$325 per square foot is the moderate-profit range

Limited-service and fast-casual restaurants: $200 per square foot minimum; top fast-casual franchises average around $505Source: WhippleWood CPAs

Hickory Tavern permanently shuts four restaurants under new ownership. EzumeImages / Getty Images

Recent sports bar & casual dining closures, bankruptcies covered by TheStreet

Bar Louie: The neighborhood sports bar and cocktail chain filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early 2020 and again in 2025. After shuttering underperforming locations to restructure debt, its store count dropped to around 40–48 locations, down from a peak of over 130.  

Hooters: The legacy wing and sports bar chain closed dozens of underperforming corporate-owned locations, citing rising labor costs, pressure from fast-casual alternatives, and shifting consumer habits. The closures were driven by restructuring efforts following a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, which completely eliminated its footprint in several states.

TGI Fridays: While a general casual-dining chain rather than a dedicated sports bar, TGI Fridays relied heavily on bar and sports-watching traffic. The chain filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after closing hundreds of stores, leaving under 40 corporate units and a smaller network of franchised locations.

Champps Entertainment: The pioneer large-format sports bar chain—which once operated over 60 massive multi-screen venues across the country—gradually collapsed, closing over 50 locations due to high occupancy costs, debt burden, and declining foot traffic.

Dueling Axes: Niche entertainment sports bar chains faced similar headwinds. Dueling Axes, an axe-throwing sports bar concept, abruptly closed all 5 of its locations due to operating pressures and unexpected circumstances.

Related: Why Target shoppers may miss the best prices

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Why we love this deal

A small porch or balcony does not need much furniture to become a useful place to spend part of the day. Two chairs and a table can be enough for morning coffee before work, catching up with a friend, reading, or enjoying the upcoming cool fall weather. For anyone with limited space, or looking to fill a corner of a larger backyard, a compact set can create a comfortable spot in an otherwise unused space. A cozy three-piece set offers more room for a barbecue with friends, provides a spot to relax with a drink, and helps the space feel put together.

The Mainstays Steel 3-Piece Rocker Set is a simple choice. The steel set is sturdy but doesn’t feel industrial, and the seating brings a pop of color that’s neutral enough to fit with existing furniture. Shoppers save 34%, paying under $100 for this sturdy, chic set.

Mainstays Steel 3-Piece Rocker Set, $97 (was $147) at Walmart

Courtesy of Walmart

Shop at Walmart

Why do shoppers love it?

The two rocking chairs and table create a nice-looking ready-made setup. The chairs have a gentle rocking motion, while the blue sling seating and white steel frame design create a clean, modern appearance. The combination works well for a range of indoor or outdoor spaces, looking cute as part of a sunroom setup or providing a set that can be split up and used around the back deck. The chairs and table weigh 22 and 9 pounds, respectively. The powder-coated, rust-resistant steel frames and fade-resistant sling fabric are both designed for outdoor use, with each chair featuring a padded headrest that can be adjusted or removed. 

Related: Walmart is selling a 3-piece swivel rocking chair patio set for $133

The heavy-duty steel frames hold up to 350 pounds per chair, and the chairs measure 26 inches deep, 32.7 inches wide, and 35.8 inches tall, providing a good amount of space to sit back and relax. The included round table keeps the setup functional. Measuring 18.9 inches wide and 18 inches tall, it’s a great place to set drinks, snacks, an outdoor speaker, or an evening lantern, while remaining compact. The set can be wiped clean with a cloth, but the manufacturer suggests keeping it covered when not in use to help prolong its life. 

Details to know

Sizes: The chairs measure 26 inches deep, 32.7 inches wide, and 35.8 inches tall with deep seats.

Weight capacity: The chairs can each hold up to 350 pounds.

Material: The steel frames are sturdy, and the sling seats are comfortable and easy to clean. 

“The chairs are super sturdy with tall backs and deep seats,” wrote one shopper. “I love that I can just hose it down and not worry about pillows getting wet. The neck cushion is also very comfy. I definitely recommend the set!”Another person wrote, “It was put together easily, looks nice on our back patio, and is the most comfortable of all of the chairs we tried.”

Shop more deals

Homall 3-Piece Rocker Patio Set, $84 (was $135) at Walmart

Wwr 3-Piece Rocking Bistro Set, $90 (was $90) at Walmart

Mainstays Cream Steel Rocking Patio Set, $147 (was $224) at Walmart

The Mainstays Steel 3-Piece Rocker Set is a great option that provides comfort and ease of use. The rocking chairs move smoothly, and the materials are easy to keep clean. This set is on sale for just $97, providing a sturdy, comfortable set for any outdoor spot. 

Owners of popular restaurant chains have encountered financial difficulties in paying their merchant cash advances, leading certain dining companies to defend lawsuits, or in other cases, file for bankruptcy protection.

Defunct high-end Northern California French restaurant chain Left Bank‘s owner is facing a lawsuit filed against it by merchant cash advance provider Samson MCA after the dining company permanently shut down all seven of its locations on June 24.

Samson MCA filed a lawsuit against Left Bank owner Vine Hospitality in the Erie County Superior Court in New York, seeking payment of a $1.876 million balance on its merchant cash advance, plus about $500,000 in attorney’s fees, SFGate reported.

Certain restaurant chain owners are having difficulties making their payments to merchant cash advance loan lenders.Shutterstock

Merchant cash advance lawsuit

The plaintiff alleges that Vine Hospitality agreed on March 19, 2026, to sell Samson MCA the right to collect $2.345 million in proceeds from future restaurant sales in exchange for an upfront payment, according to the lawsuit filed on July 1, 2026. Under the agreement, Vine agreed to pay 8% of all restaurant sales until the $2.345 million debt had been paid off.

Vine Hospitality allegedly paid Samson MCA about $469,000 before it stopped making payments, the lawsuit said. Samson claimed in the lawsuit that Vine stopped making payments while it was still operating and generating income, SFGate reported.

Vine Hospitality was not immediately available for comment for this article. The company had not filed for bankruptcy at last check.

Left Bank said in a June 22 Instagram post that it will shut down all seven of its locations by the end of the day on June 24.

Restaurant closures affected 300 workers

The closing of the seven restaurants affected the employment of about 300 workers, according to KRON-TV in San Francisco.

“The business wasn’t successful enough to continue operating,” Vine Hospitality CEO Alistair Levine said in an email to KRON-TV. “We don’t have (a) plan to reopen anything elsewhere in the Bay Area.”

The 32-year-old restaurant chain’s owner Vine Hospitality posted a farewell message on Instagram related to the closings.

“It is with heavy hearts that we share the news that our Left Bank restaurants will be closing,” the message read. “We are incredibly grateful for every meal shared, every toast raised, and every memory created with us.”

“We also want to thank our dedicated team members, whose hard work, passion, and commitment brought the spirit of Left Bank to life each and every day,” the message said.

Vine Hospitality closed 7 locations

Vine Hospitality listed the locations and closing dates in the Instagram message: Left Bank Menlo Park, Calif., June 23; Left Bank Santana Row, San Jose, Calif., June 23; Left Bank Larkspur, Calif., June 24; Petite Left Bank Tiburon, Calif., June 22; LB Steak Bishop Ranch, San Ramon, Calif., June 22; LB Steak Santana Row, San Jose, Calif., June 24; and Meso Modern Mediterranean, San Ramon, Calif., June 22.

Vine Hospitality’s Left Bank chain is not the only restaurant company that has had difficulties with merchant cash advances.

Café Fiorello owner filed for bankruptcy

The Fireman Group of Cafe Concepts Inc., a restaurant chain that includes iconic Café Fiorello locations in New York and Washington, D.C., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Aug. 9 to reorganize its business and restructure its debt obligations after facing merchant cash advance disputes, according to court documents.

The debtor began obtaining merchant cash advances in spring 2024 to fill its liquidity gaps but allegedly began missing rent payments to landlords in March 2026, according to court papers.

Related: Popular discount mattress chain files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

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There’s a new trend on the rise in the world of fashion and accessories, and it’s called affordable luxury. Things definitely aren’t getting any cheaper, but that doesn’t mean you can’t still treat yourself. Whether it’s a high-end pair of sneakers or a beautiful luxury watch, consumers still want to feel like they’re splurging while getting a decent value proposition for their hard-earned money. That’s what affordable luxury is all about, and we found a microbrand watch at Amazon that fits perfectly into that category for smart shoppers.

However, before sharing the watch with you, it’s probably worth noting a few of the reasons behind this emerging trend. Inflation, groceries, and energy costs all continue to increase. At the same time, wages aren’t increasing in accordance with these consistent cost-of-living increases. That paradigm leads to a labor force that’s working more and more while getting less and less for their money. For many people, it’s hard to stay motivated in what seems like a rat race of ever-diminishing returns. That’s where the concept of quiet luxury comes in. It’s a way to give yourself a little performance bonus of sorts without putting your monthly budget at risk.

AV-8 Hawker Hurricane Dual-Time Watch

Courtesy of Amazon

Check price at Amazon

The AV-8 Hawker Hurricane Dual-Time Watch may be the perfect example of an affordable luxury buy, and it’s a good-looking one at that. All AV-8 models are vintage aviation-inspired timepieces that harken back to the heyday of flight. This one has a 316L stainless steel case and bracelet that are rustproof and corrosion resistant. The 43.5-millimeter case size is ideal for great legibility without being too oversized.

It has 50 meters of water resistance as well, which means you can feel safe doing tasks like washing dishes and strolling in the rain without any fear of internal damage. On the inside, the watch is powered by a high-accuracy Japanese quartz movement that has an impressive dual-time feature. This is a microbrand luxury watch that you surely won’t regret buying, especially at the current price of $159. It’s also available in six colorways and strap treatments.

Benefits of a dual-time quartz watch

There is a lot of upside to buying a dual-time quartz watch. The most obvious of these are accuracy, time zone tracking, and affordability and maintenance. On the accuracy front, quartz watches use a standard watch battery to power the hands. However, the electrical signal is passed through a quartz crystal before arriving at the handset. That quartz pass-through part of the process helps to regulate the movement by exactly one second each pass. This allows most quartz watches to be far more accurate than even the most expensive Swiss mechanical alternatives, such as a Rolex.

What’s more, if you get a quartz watch with a dual-time function, you’ll never be out of sync with your preferred time zone. While most standard GMT (Greenwich Mean Time) watches have an extra hand on the main dial to track a second time zone, a true dual-time watch can be easier to read for some. Dual-time watches usually have a dedicated sundial that shows a second time zone all its own, separated from the primary dial. Such is the case with the above-mentioned AV-8 dual-time model.

Finally, a quartz dual-time watch is usually more affordable than most mechanical alternatives. That goes for both the purchase price as well as the long-term maintenance. Because quartz watches are more electronic than mechanical, you don’t have to send them for regular servicing like you do a hand-wound watch. That means, other than a battery change every few years, there’s really no consistent upkeep costs with a quartz timepiece. 

More AV-8 Microbrand Watches

If the AV-8 Hawker Hurricane Dual-Time Watch isn’t for you, then the brand has a number of other options that may suit you better. Whether you want something a bit sportier or you prefer to dress up your wrist a bit, this popular microbrand can make it happen. Just be sure to put one in your cart sooner rather than later, as this is a watchmaker on the rise and it’s best to get one before they fly off the shelves for good.

AV-8 Hawker Hunter Pilot’s Watch

Courtesy of Amazon

Check price at Amazon

AV-8 Hawker Hurricane Classic Chronograph

Courtesy of Amazon

Check price at Amazon

AV-8 Hawker Hurricane Automatic Three-Hand Watch

Courtesy of Amazon

Check price at Amazon

AV-8 Spitfire Pilot’s Chronograph

Courtesy of Amazon

Check price at Amazon

TheStreet Shopping is your guide for shopping insights and advice. We look beyond the price tag to find the best value in home, tech, and wellness gear based on product features and real-world use. Read more about our Editorial Standards and How We Choose Our Shopping Deals.

Every forecast eventually gets graded by the market, and the market keeps better records than the people making the forecasts.

Wall Street research runs on conviction, and conviction is cheap when the chart cooperates. It gets expensive later, when a number published in January stops looking reachable in August, and the analyst has to decide whether to defend it or quietly move it.

Most of them move it. Almost none of them announce that they did.

That is worth keeping in mind this week, because gold has become the most argued-about trade on Wall Street again. The metal has risen for five consecutive weeks, its longest streak since last October, and it is trading near its best level in three months.

Behind that run sits something unusual. The U.S. Treasury stepped into the government bond market last week, and investors who spent the summer watching gold bleed value are trying to work out whether the intervention changes anything.

One of the loudest bulls in the market just answered. Deutsche Bank told clients to buy gold on the back of the Treasury’s move.

The number attached to that recommendation is the part almost nobody is talking about.

Why the Treasury bond market moves the gold price

Gold pays you nothing. That single fact drives most of its price behavior, and it explains why a bond market story is really a gold story.

When Treasury bonds offer a high, safe yield, holding an asset that generates no income is expensive. When yields fall or investors start doubting a bond’s return will survive inflation, that cost disappears and gold gets more attractive.

Right now, Washington is fighting to keep long-term yields down. Total federal debt passed $40 trillion this summer, and July’s monthly budget deficit hit a five-year high, according to CNBC.

Related: Wells Fargo revamps gold price target for the rest of 2026

Servicing that pile gets more expensive as yields climb. The 30-year Treasury yield touched about 5.34% last week, close to a two-decade high and up from 4.82% in late June, per the same reporting.

That is the loop worrying bond investors. Higher yields mean higher interest costs, larger deficits, more bond supply, and yields higher again.

There is a well-worn way out, and gold investors know it by name. Governments can hold real yields artificially low and let inflation erode the debt. The trade that anticipates it is called the debasement trade.

What Deutsche Bank told gold investors

The Treasury recently said it would at least double the maximum size of its bond buyback operations, lifting the ceiling to $4 billion from $2 billion. Two senior Treasury officials said the department could tap its General Account, which holds close to $1 trillion, to help fund the program, CNBC reported.

Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh wrote to clients on Monday, Aug. 24, that the shift risks pushing gold above his $4,800 an ounce target. The Treasury policy change is “underlining the gold constructive view,” Hsueh wrote in the note, according to CNBC.

More Gold & Silver: 

Gold, silver rally off ugly crash, but investors remain on edge

A teen’s summer job just turned into a gold discovery

Pandora opens unexpected box as silver price drops

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described his ability to calm the bond market as a “big toolkit,” he told CNBC on Thursday, Aug. 20.

The mechanism is not subtle. When a government buys its own long-dated debt to hold borrowing costs down, some investors read it as plumbing maintenance. Others read it as a government that can no longer tolerate what the market wants to charge it.

Gold rose more than 1% on Aug. 24. It gained more than 5% the week before.

How the $4,800 gold target compares to January

I pulled Deutsche Bank’s published gold targets across 2026 and lined them up against the price. The pattern is not the one a “buy gold” call usually implies.

Deutsche Bank carried a $6,000 base case for 2026, with an upside scenario near $6,900, as I reported for TheStreet in February.

By early August the bank’s official fourth-quarter target had fallen to $4,600, with a model-derived fair value of $4,700, according to TheStreet’s coverage of the same analyst.

Gold’s record close of roughly $5,589 an ounce was set on Jan. 28, according to GoldSilver.

Gold bottomed near $3,974 in late June, a drawdown of about 29% from that peak, according to Trading Economics price data.

Run that sequence and the shape becomes clear. Deutsche Bank spent 2026 walking its gold target down by a fifth, and this week marked the first time it moved the number back up.

That is still a bullish revision, just one made off a much lower base. The distinction matters if you are deciding what to do with your money.

My analysis is that the signal is the direction of travel, not the target. A bank raising a number it already cut twice is telling you the bleeding stopped. It is not telling you January’s highs are coming back.

The version of this argument was highlighted in TheStreet’s coverage of gold’s January peak, where the move looked overbought and late money got hurt. Gold fell nearly 30% over the next five months.

Deutsche Bank says buy gold on the Treasury’s bond buyback.Bjoern Wylezich / Getty Images

What the gold price call means for your portfolio

The practical question is whether $4,800 is worth chasing.

Gold traded around $4,650 an ounce on Tuesday, Aug. 25, according to Trading Economics. That puts Deutsche Bank’s target roughly 3% away.

Three percent is not a thesis. It is a rounding error in a metal that fell 29% this year and has climbed 17% back.

What matters for anyone holding gold, whether through bullion or an exchange-traded fund like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), is whether structural demand holds. There, the data is more encouraging than the price targets are.

Central banks added a net 288.9 tonnes of gold in the second quarter, a 62% jump from a year earlier and the strongest second quarter in the data series, according to the World Gold Council. They did that buying while prices were falling.

Some 89% of reserve managers expect their gold holdings to rise over the next 12 months, the same survey found.

Central banks do not trade. They accumulate slowly, and the floor they build under the price does not vanish when one inflation print comes in hot.

The near-term risk is sitting on the calendar. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, Aug. 28, and inflation has run above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years.

July’s meeting minutes revealed a 9-3 split among policymakers, the widest division in roughly two decades. If Warsh leans hawkish, real yields rise and gold’s math gets worse quickly.

That is the scenario a $4,800 target does not price in.

Deutsche Bank’s note is a reasonable read of a real policy shift, and the debasement logic behind it holds up.

But a target 14% below January’s high is not a call for the next leg of a bull market. It is a call that the correction is over.

Those are different trades, and only one of them justifies buying gold at a three-month high.

Related: Gold standard is reborn amid central bank surge

Nvidia (NVDA) investors are heading into an earnings release where even a normal stock move might move more money than most publicly traded firms are worth.

Options traders are pricing in a move of around 5.4% in either direction after Nvidia announces fiscal second-quarter data on Wednesday, Aug. 26. That amounts to more than $280 billion in market value, given Nvidia’s huge valuation, Reuters said.

That number matters to more than just traders owning Nvidia stock. Nvidia is one of the largest businesses in key U.S. indexes, so its moves can ripple through index funds, technology funds, and the investment portfolios of regular individuals.

As of July 31, Nvidia was the largest component of the S&P 500 Information Technology index, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

But the size of the $280 billion amount is not surprising. That’s why Wall Street seems to be reasonably cool about it.

The options-implied move of 5.4% is below the 6.5% investors put in ahead of Nvidia’s May earnings and significantly below the company’s 7.4% average implied move over its previous 12 quarterly reports, according to Option Research & Technology Services data cited by Reuters.

So while Nvidia is much more valuable, traders are preparing for less drama.

Nvidia earnings have become a test of the AI boom

That relative quiet is a striking contrast with the beginning of the generative-AI explosion.

At one time, companies scrambled to get their hands on Nvidia’s graphics processors, making the company’s earnings releases ripe for huge surprises. Investors were frequently forced to reevaluate the pace of growth in AI infrastructure demand and the size of the opportunity for Nvidia.

Related: Nvidia customers face 15% AI price shock

The financial numbers have since become extraordinary. Nvidia reported record fiscal first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier. Data-center revenue reached a record $75.2 billion, up 92%.

TheStreet readers should therefore watch more than whether Nvidia beats Wall Street’s earnings estimates. The key issues are the longevity of AI infrastructure spending, Nvidia’s profitability, customer demand, and the deployment of its next generation of chips.

Analysts expect second-quarter revenue of about $92.18 billion, Reuters reported, nearly double the year-earlier level. Investors will also be watching Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform as the company squares off against Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), and chips developed internally by large technology customers.

Nvidia will report fiscal second-quarter earnings on Aug. 26 at around 1:20 p.m. PST, followed by its earnings call at 2 p.m. PST.

Nvidia earnings: what investors need to know

Expected stock move: About 5.4% in either direction

Potential market-value swing: Roughly $280 billion

Previous earnings implied move: 6.5%

12-quarter average: 7.4%

Earnings date: Wednesday, Aug. 26

Fiscal Q1 revenue: $81.6 billion

Fiscal Q1 data-center revenue: $75.2 billion

The falling implied volatility suggests investors believe Nvidia’s findings are meaningful. It may instead be a sign of how much the market’s view of the company has changed.

“The beginning of the AI era when Nvidia was surprising everybody with the huge earnings beats and 10, 15, 20 percent moves, that’s kind of over,” Susquehanna derivatives strategist Chris Murphy told Reuters.

That makes for a strange setup. Expectations are huge, but expectations for an earnings-day surprise are getting smaller.

Why Nvidia’s $280 billion swing matters to everyday investors

Nvidia’s results are significant, even if an investor doesn’t own Nvidia in a brokerage account.

The firm is heavily weighted in important market indices and technology measurements. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, Nvidia is one of the top constituents across many indices. The S&P 500 Top 10 Index is a stark reminder of how concentrated America’s biggest stocks have become: The largest constituent made up 19.4% of that index as of Aug. 21.

That focus is what makes Nvidia’s results a Main Street story.

But investors can get indirect exposure to the chipmaker by purchasing broad-market or technology index funds. Thus, a strong change in Nvidia can affect the value of portfolios much beyond those of those actively trading semiconductor stocks.

The impact could spread further, as Nvidia has become a bellwether for the AI spending cycle. Its results give investors insights into demand for data centers, memory, power infrastructure, and equipment, as well as spending by technology titans constructing standard artificial intelligence systems.

Markets are already pricing the news as such. U.S. stock futures bounced back ahead of results from chipmaker Nvidia, which surged 1.33% in premarket trading on Tuesday, Aug. 25, Reuters reported, as key inflation data were due.

That follows seven straight sessions of declines. That run had Reuters up around 11.7% for Nvidia in 2026.

Nvidia faces a $280 billion test that Wall Street may be underestimating.YOSHIKAZU TSUNO / Getty Images

Nvidia now has to prove predictability doesn’t amount to complacency

Investors have two very different ways of reading the relatively muted options pricing.

The hopeful reading is that Nvidia has grown up. Wall Street knows its business better, analysts have refined their models, and the company no longer consistently surprises the market.

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The less comfortable reading is the one ORATS founder Matt Amberson posited in comments cited by Reuters: complacency.

A 5.4% implied move is still a big deal for a firm of Nvidia’s magnitude, but investors are requesting less protection against an earnings shock than they have in the past. That opens the door for a big reaction if Nvidia comes up with something that the market has not priced into its expectations.

And the stakes in the AI game have gone up tremendously.

Nvidia is becoming more than a chip supplier, involved in financing deals around the huge expansion of AI infrastructure. That has put the spotlight on how the industry is being supported and how sustainable that demand is in the long run.

The Aug. 26 report will help clarify whether profit growth will continue to support one of the world’s greatest valuations for Nvidia stockholders.

For everyone else, the ramifications are wider. Nvidia has become a proxy for the AI investment cycle and a big part of stock indices that are widely tracked. A letdown can therefore ripple through tech stocks and index-linked portfolios, while another robust report can bolster confidence that massive AI capital spending remains in the game.

That makes the $280 billion number less a forecast than a measure of the stakes.

Wall Street expects a move from Nvidia. What it doesn’t seem to expect any longer is to be astonished.

Related: Oppenheimer has a blunt Nvidia stock message ahead of earnings

U.S. Representative Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) has spent decades in Congress, including two stints as House Speaker. Yet her stock trades, which must be disclosed regularly, are watched almost as closely as any Wall Street fund manager’s moves.

One of the newer names showing up in that portfolio is Tempus AI, a Chicago-based healthcare technology company. 

The stock has had a rough stretch this year. But the underlying business just posted one of its strongest quarters yet.

So does Rep. Pelosi’s portfolio exposure to Tempus AI (TEM) stock still make sense heading into the back half of 2026? Here’s what the data show.

Nancy Pelosi stock portfolio explained

Members of Congress and their spouses must publicly disclose stock trades under federal ethics law, which is how the public sees Pelosi’s equity holdings.

According to the Nancy Pelosi stock tracker, current holdings show 15 positions worth $44.56 million, with an overall gain of 22.6% in the last 12 months. 

The largest position is Nvidia, at 15% of the portfolio, followed by Alphabet at 12% and Broadcom at 11%. Bloom Energy also sits at 11%, with Intel at 10%.

Related: Nancy Pelosi places big bets on two surging tech stocks

Tempus AI ranks among the smaller positions at 6% of the portfolio, tied with CrowdStrike and Vistra. Amazon rounds out the top 10 names at 5%.

Rep. Pelosi is clearly bullish on chipmakers, cloud, and AI infrastructure names in 2026. Valued at a market cap of $13 billion, Tempus AI is also part of the AI megatrend. 

The company went public in June 2024 and has since returned over 70% to shareholders. At the time of writing, the stock trades 36% below all-time highs. 

U.S. Representative Nancy Pelosi is betting big on AI stocks.AFP/Getty Images

Tempus AI stock reports strong Q2 numbers

Tempus AI runs a healthcare technology platform that connects doctors’ offices with lab testing, data analytics, and a large library of patient data. 

Its core business includes diagnostic tests for cancer patients, genetic testing for inherited conditions, and a data licensing business that sells de-identified patient data to drugmakers.

Tempus AI reported second-quarter revenue of $382.5 million, up 22% year over year. 

Diagnostics revenue reached $289.3 million, up 20%, while the data and apps segment grew 28% to $93.2 million.

Tempus AI also posted a small GAAP profit of $5.6 million in the quarter and adjusted EBITDA of $8 million, up $13.6 million from a year earlier. 

The company ended the quarter with $820.7 million in cash and investments, up from $643.8 million the prior quarter.

Management raised full-year revenue guidance to a range of $1.595 billion to $1.605 billion, roughly 25% higher year over year, and expects adjusted EBITDA around $65 million for 2026.

“Q2 was another exceptional quarter for us,” Tempus CEO Eric Lefkofsky stated. “Our strategy is working, given the investments we have made in AI over the past several years are driving some of the best growth rates we have seen in our two largest businesses — Oncology Diagnostics and Data Licensing.”

What could drive a Tempus AI stock rebound

Tempus AI has a few catalysts lined up for late 2026 and beyond. 

The company won FDA approval for a version of its xT cancer test, which unlocks higher government reimbursement pricing starting in 2027. 

Tempus expects the approval to add roughly $85 million in annual revenue.

A second test, xF, is currently before the FDA, and executives said they now expect an even bigger pricing lift than they previously modeled, based on how competitor Guardant Health priced a similar product.

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Tempus also confirmed a deal to acquire Personalis, a company it has partnered with since 2023, for cancer monitoring test NeXT Personal. 

Lefkofsky said the deal, valued at nearly $1.5 billion in stock and cash, should accelerate adoption of that test. 

Volumes for that test grew 38% from the first to the second quarter, even though only about 10% of the sales team currently sells it.

On the data side, Tempus AI signed new licensing deals with BioNTech, Daiichi Sankyo, and others in the quarter, adding to existing relationships with AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Merck. 

Lefkofsky described the pace of new deal signings as among the strongest stretches the data business has ever had.

Is the Nancy Pelosi stock undervalued?

Investing in this Nancy Pelosi stock carries certain risks. 

Tempus AI carries debt, though it refinanced part of that debt in the quarter through a $460 million note offering that management said will save more than $30 million a year in interest. 

The Personalis deal will also add near-term losses to the business before pricing improvements kick in next year.

According to consensus data compiled by TIKR:

Analysts tracking Tempus AI stock forecast revenue to increase from $1.27 billion in 2025 to $3.37 billion in 2030.

It is projected to end 2030 with a free cash flow of $200 million, compared to an outflow of $12 million this year. 

If TEM stock trades at 40x forward FCF, it would be valued at $8 billion in late 2029, below its current market cap.

For the stock to double from current levels within the next four years, it should trade at 130x forward FCF, which is steep. 

Out of the 15 analysts covering the Nancy Pelosi stock, eight recommend “Buy,” and seven recommend “Hold.” The average Tempus AI stock price target is $63, which is 5% below current prices. 

For now, Tempus AI stock remains a small piece of a Pelosi portfolio that is up 22.6% this year.

Whether that piece grows into a bigger winner may depend on how quickly the pricing changes and the Personalis deal show up in the numbers over the next two quarters.

Related: Nancy Pelosi makes intriguing first-ever bet on AI power stock

Most people don’t think about paying for long-term care (LTC) until the price tag makes it impossible to ignore.

A private nursing home room now costs a median of $129,575 a year, while non-medical caregiver services, which CareScout defines as homemaker and home health aide services, cost $80,080 annually at 44 hours per week, according to CareScout’s 2025 Cost of Care Survey.

Meanwhile, standalone long-term care insurance keeps shrinking, down to roughly 5.8 million policyholders, Milliman’s review of National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) 2024 data showed.

Fidelity’s Aug. 14, 2026, guidance spotlights a tax-code provision for tax-free swapping of life insurance for hybrid LTC coverage.

How the 1035 exchange converts life insurance into care coverage

IRC Section 1035 permits a tax-free transfer of one life insurance policy to another like-kind contract, Fidelity explained.

The Pension Protection Act of 2006, effective Jan. 1, 2010, expanded that provision to include qualified long-term care contracts under IRC Section 7702B.

Before 2010, policyholders could swap life-to-life or life-to-annuity, but not life-to-LTC. The change opened a direct path from an aging whole-of-life or universal-life policy into a hybrid product combining a reduced death benefit with a long-term care rider.

Jesse Slome, director of the American Association for Long-Term Care Insurance (AALTCI), said most people don’t know this tax-free swap exists.

Few individuals are familiar with Section 1035 of the Internal Revenue Code that allows an individual to repurpose an existing annuity of life insurance policy to one that includes tax-advantaged long-term care benefits.

Qualifying care expenses covered by the new hybrid policy are paid tax-free, Fidelity noted, and the transfer must move directly between carriers. 

Unlike an IRA rollover, which permits a 60-day window to redeposit funds, a 1035 exchange must move directly from the original insurer to the new insurer. If the policyholder takes constructive receipt of the funds, the IRS treats the transaction as a taxable surrender.

4 scenarios where the exchange of life insurance for long-term care coverage may apply

Fidelity’s guidance notes the following four conditions.

The death benefit is no longer needed, and the policy is in jeopardy of lapsing unless premiums rise significantly.

The existing policy is not performing as expected premiums are rising at increasing rates and may exceed the actual death benefit if held to maturity.

The gap between the policy’s death benefit and cash value is low, weakening the internal rate of return.

The policyholder believes they would qualify for LTC insurance based on their current health status and age.

Those conditions sound straightforward, but the exchange carries risks Fidelity’s guidance treats as afterthoughts and comes against a backdrop of a shrinking standalone-LTC market.

A shrinking LTC coverage base meets record long-term care costs

Behind that shrinking base, policy terminations have outpaced new issues by about 127,000 individuals per year over the past decade, Milliman’s review of NAIC data showed.

Meanwhile, roughly 70% of Americans reaching 65 will need some form of LTC, U.S. Department of Health & Human Services data show.

Annual private LTC claims hit $17 billion in 2024, with the average claim rising from about $110,000 in 2015 to $180,000 in 2024, Milliman’s NAIC review indicated.

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Only about 3% of Americans over age 50 have any LTC coverage, Life Insurance Marketing and Research Association (LIMRA) estimates.

This is because premiums remain punishing. A single 60-year-old woman pays roughly $4,450 a year for a $165,000 initial-benefit policy with 3% compound inflation protection, AALTCI’s 2026 price index showed.

Combination life-and-LTC products have responded to that gap, with annuity/LTC sales alone hitting a record in 2024, up more than 50% year-over-year, LIMRA reported. 

An estimated $754 billion sat in fixed-rate deferred annuities as of the end of the first quarter of 2025, more than half of it non-qualified, the portion actually eligible for a 1035 exchange into a long-term care contract, LIMRA noted.

Long-term care costs are rising as coverage shrinks, leaving millions exposed to higher premiums, growing claims, and significant retirement risks.Maskot / Getty Images

Five friction points Fidelity treats as footnotes

Fidelity acknowledged that 1035 exchanges do not fit every situation, and several risks deserve more weight than the firm’s guidance provides.

Surrender charges on the departing policy: Early surrender charges can significantly reduce the cash value transferred to a new contract, FINRA has warned. Universal and indexed universal policies typically carry declining surrender-charge schedules running 10 to 15 years from issue, according to PineLake Legacy.

Lost death benefit: A full exchange eliminates the original death benefit, opening a gap for households still relying on survivor protection, FINRA cautioned.

Fresh contestability period: The new policy has a two-year window during which the insurer can challenge a claim based on application misstatements, FINRA’s alert confirmed.

Cost of insurance at attained age: The new policy prices mortality at your current age, and for older applicants, that cost difference can erase the benefit, PineLake Legacy warned.

Health underwriting for the new policy: The new hybrid contract requires medical underwriting at your current age, and declining health since the original policy could mean denial, AALTCI noted.

An old life policy may still have more value than its face suggests

A 1035 exchange can turn an unwanted death benefit into tax-free long-term-care funding, but the economics depend on whether the household still needs the original coverage. 

Surrender charges, policy age, cash value, and contract terms can make keeping the existing policy more attractive than exchanging it. Current health also matters because underwriting may limit access to a replacement policy. 

A partial exchange can preserve some death benefit, while a life settlement may offer another exit, with the GAO estimating proceeds of 10% to 35% of face value. 

Fidelity advises policyholders to consult a financial professional and a tax professional before deciding between keeping, exchanging, or settling an existing policy.

Related: Fidelity highlights tax-free way to fund long-term care

A typical financial picture may include home equity, an employer-sponsored retirement account, a life insurance policy and perhaps a car loan that has yet to be paid off.

For most people, that list feels too modest for anything beyond a basic will, so establishing a trust sounds like expensive overkill.

Bank of America Private Bank says that instinct is one of the most damaging myths in personal finance, and a new national survey backs it up with hard numbers.

The bank argues that a trust’s most useful function for most families is keeping the household intact when a crisis hits.

Bank of America names the belief holding families back

Jennifer F. Galvagna, Managing Director and Head of Trust, Estates, and Tax at Bank of America, called the idea that trusts serve only the ultra-wealthy a misconception in the firm’s analysis.

Trusts give families a say in how wealth is managed and used across multiple generations, she explained, regardless of whether the estate is large or modest.

The bank’s analysis outlined five ways a trust can play a role beyond estate-tax planning: 

Setting parameters for how an inheritance is spent across generations, 

Preparing for incapacity through a successor trustee, 

Easing business succession, 

Providing for family members with special needs, and 

Managing blended families where children from different marriages have competing claims.

Several of those functions address risks that grow more urgent as families navigate aging, health setbacks, or complicated family structures.

New survey data reveals how deep the misconception runs

The Trust & Will 2026 Estate Planning Report, a national survey of 5,000 adults, found that 27% of Americans without a will or trust say they skip planning because they believe they do not have enough assets to justify it.

That belief ranked as the single most cited barrier to action, ahead of procrastination at 23%, not knowing where to start at 17%, and cost concerns at 15%.

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The data is particularly striking among baby boomers, 35% of whom cited insufficient assets as their reason for inaction. Despite holding significant home equity and retirement savings, many in this generation remain inactive.

Overall, 56% of American adults currently have no estate planning documents, and 73% acknowledge that estate planning is personally important to them, the report found.

Many Americans believe they lack enough assets for estate planning, leaving millions without wills or trusts despite recognizing their importance.PeopleImages / Getty Images

How a revocable trust protects families at every income level

A revocable living trust lets the person who creates it continue to manage their own assets while they are alive and healthy, Bank of America’s analysis explained.

If the grantor faces a health emergency, a successor trustee named in advance can generally step in without a court proceeding, though contested designations or disputes over the grantor’s capacity may still require court involvement.

Assets held inside a trust also bypass probate, the court-supervised process that distributes property to heirs after death.

Probate costs commonly run in the 3% to 7% range of gross estate value, according to AARP’s Smart Guide to Estate Planning, and can take a year or longer to resolve depending on the state.

On a $300,000 estate, those costs can still add up quickly. Attorney fees, court costs, and administrative expenses could total roughly $9,000 to $21,000, costs that a funded trust could avoid entirely.

Why annual reviews matter for existing estate plans

Even families who move past the “not enough assets” assumption and create an estate plan often stop there. Bank of America’s trust officers say a document that is never revisited can drift out of step with the family it was designed to protect.

Kevin Hannant, a market trust executive at Bank of America Private Bank in Los Angeles, said families should ordinarily review estate plans about once a year.

Certain life events can push that timeline forward, including a divorce, the birth of a grandchild, a period of economic volatility, or a significant change in tax law, Hannant noted.

Beth Pinsker, a certified financial planner and financial planning columnist at MarketWatch, told CNBC that the math on estate planning consistently favors doing it while alive rather than leaving heirs to sort out an unplanned estate later.

Whatever you pay today is less than what anybody’s going to pay after the fact if you don’t have a will. It’s going to cost so much more for your heirs to deal with your estate after the fact

The Trust & Will survey found that 14% of people with a will or trust have never updated their documents. Another 13% review their estate plans only once a decade or less.

What trust skeptics may be overlooking about their own plan

The question is whether the current plan addresses the risks most likely to surface in an ordinary family.

If an estate plan relies solely on a will, it may not address incapacity during the grantor’s lifetime or probate costs and delays after death.

It also may not provide detailed control over how and when beneficiaries receive their distributions, Galvagna noted in Bank of America’s analysis.

Bank of America Private Bank’s analysis framed the question worth sitting with as whether a family’s current plan would withstand the scenarios it is most likely to face. Those are the very risks the bank says the “not enough assets” myth can cause families to overlook.

Those could include a sudden health decline, a contentious probate process, or an inheritance reaching a beneficiary who is not yet ready to manage it responsibly. 

Related: Charles Schwab warns Americans on major estate planning problem