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NRF forecasts 4.4% retail growth for 2026, but this may be too bullish given rising PPI inflation, Middle East conflict and increasing fragility of high-income consumers.

While bitcoin has shown relative strength against gold since the war in Iran broke out, investors are better off holding off “dry powder” while prices swing wildly on headlines, said Wintermute’s Bryan Tan.

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.Why we love this dealFlannels are often associated with fall and winter, but one thing’s for sure, they’re a dream for layering. Now that we’re heading into slightly warmer weather, lightweight flannel shirts are the perfect spring layer. They offer a cozy and casual look that you can wear around the house or out with friends. And we just spotted an incredible deal on one at Macy’s with a big discount. The Club Room Flannel Shirt is a Macy’s bestseller, and it’s on sale now for just $10. Originally $40, you can get it deeply discounted during a Last Act deal — that’s 75% off with $30 in savings. It comes in seven spring-ready colors, including solids and classic plaid patterns.Club Room Flannel Shirt, $10 (was $40) at Macy’s

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Shop at Macy’sWhy do shoppers love it?Spring weather is all about the layers, but rather than heavy and bulky, opt for more lightweight pieces like this flannel shirt. Crafted from cotton, it has a soft feel that won’t weigh you down, which is ideal for the spring months when it can be extra warm one day and cold and rainy the next. With a button-down design, it has a refined look that you can dress up or down, making it a versatile piece in your spring wardrobe. For a cool and casual look, you can wear it as an open and unbuttoned layer over a T-shirt with jeans and sneakers. For something a little more dressed up — maybe for an Easter brunch — tuck it into chinos or nice pants and tie the look together with a belt and loafers. The flannel shirt comes in seven colors, which happen to be perfect for spring. There are solid colors, like green, navy, and ivory. Then there are classic plaids in lighter, spring-ready colors.Related: Coach Outlet’s $295 tote bag is on sale for $118 — and it’s available in 16 colorsDetails to knowSizes: From men’s small to 2XL.Colors: Seven.Material: Cotton.Macy’s shoppers are loving this flannel shirt, praising its quality. One reviewer called it “very nice and comfortable.” Another said it’s “very soft” and easy to care for, adding that you can wear it straight from the dryer with no wrinkles.Many noted the lightweight feel of the shirt. “The shirt is attractive and on the thinner side, making it great for layering or on its own,” one shopper said. Another customer said it’s an excellent weight and color for spring. Shop more dealsClub Room Quarter-Zip Sweater, $15 (was $70) at Macy’sAlex Vando Flannel Shirt, $15 (was $25) at AmazonCoofandy Flannel Shirt, $10 (was $12) at AmazonOn sale for only $10 and 75% off, the Club Room Flannel Shirt is the perfect addition to your spring wardrobe. It’s lightweight, great for layering, and comes in seven colors with major spring vibes. Since it’s a Last Act deal, it’s a final sale, but with how versatile and affordable it is, we don’t think it’ll be an issue.

Bitcoin tended to show muted performance on quadruple witching days in 2025, followed by weakness in the days to weeks after.

Global oil prices are back near their highest levels in nearly four years Thursday after Iran targeted energy production in the Gulf region.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rates has risen to 6.22% this week, according to Freddie Mac. This is a 0.11% incline from last week and the third consecutive week of increases. Three weeks ago, the 30-year rate had dropped below 6% to 5.98%.The 15-year fixed rate is also up for a second week in a row. It now sits at 5.54%, which is a 0.04% increase since last week.A significant chunk of my mortgage-reporting career has focused on mortgage rates, so I can’t say I’m surprised that rates have climbed again this week. Numerous economic factors impact mortgage rates, but one seems to be king in the current environment: the conflict in the Middle East.Iran war continues to affect mortgage ratesGeopolitical unrest affects the U.S. economy in various way — one being that it pushes up mortgage rates.“Right now, the story in the markets is still being driven almost entirely by what’s happening in the Middle East and the impact it’s having through elevated and volatile oil prices,” said Jeff DerGurahian, chief investment officer and head economist for loanDepot.Related: How Fed meeting impacts mortgage rates, housing marketAmerica and Israel first attacked Iran on Feb. 28. The longer the Middle East conflict drags on, the more significant its effect on mortgage interest rates could be. Considering Israel claimed to have killed Iran’s intelligence minister, Esmail Khatib, on Wednesday, March 18, as CNBC reported, it doesn’t look like the turmoil is winding down.High oil prices typically lead to high mortgage rates. Prices for Brent crude, the main benchmark for oil prices internationally, have skyrocketed since Feb. 28. Brent crude closed at $72.50 on the day before Israel and America attacked Iran, and today, it opened at $103.66, per Business Insider.Consider adjustable-rate mortgages insteadRegardless of what mortgage rates are doing, it’s always a good idea to shop for different types of home loans with a few mortgage lenders to compare your options. And as rates rise during the Middle East conflict, you may want to ask lenders about getting an adjustable-rate mortgage (often called an ARM) instead of a fixed-rate mortgage.With a FRM, your interest rate is locked in for your entire term length, unless you refinance into a new rate. An ARM keeps your rate the same for a predetermined amount of time, then fluctuates at regular intervals. For example, a 5/1 ARM would lock in your interest rate for five years, then it would increase or decrease every one year. With a 7/6 ARM, your rate would be stagnant for seven years, then change every six months. Lenders also typically offer lower mortgage rates during ARMs’ introductory years than they do for FRMs.On March 19, I compared mortgage rates among lenders for a ZIP code in Sacramento, Calif., which is the top metro area where Americans are moving, according to Redfin. The results supported the idea that ARM rates are lower right now.At Better Mortgage, the advertised 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.75%, while 7/6 and 5/6 ARMs charged 5.5%. Chase Home Lending’s rate on a 30-year fixed-rate jumbo loan was 5.875%, and its rate on a 7/6 jumbo ARM was 5.490%.(These advertised rates assume the homebuyer will pay for discount points, which lowers the rate but costs money on closing day.)More on mortgages and mortgage rates:How Fed meeting impacts mortgage rates, housing marketRedfin reveals why now is the right time to refinance a mortgageFannie Mae predicts shifts in housing market, mortgage ratesARMs are worth considering if you think mortgage rates could decrease later — but there’s always the risk that market rates could actually be higher when your introductory-rate period ends, and your monthly mortgage payment would go up. So, ARMs are a particularly worthwhile option for those who plan to move before their intro-rate period ends. This way, you don’t risk taking on a higher rate later.Adjustable rates do come with some risk, but they aren’t as volatile as 20 years ago.”It’s also worth noting that today’s ARMs are different from the pre-2008 ARMs you may remember — they’re more tightly regulated and include adjustment caps, which provide you with clearer guardrails around how much your rate, and payment, can increase over time,” said loanDepot branch manager Baret Kechian.Long-term fixed mortgage rates are still downThree consecutive weeks of rate increases may feel dismal, but I have good news for homebuyers: Long-term mortgage fixed rates have actually decreased. So, you could still be in a relatively good spot to buy a house or refinance into a lower rate.Year-over-year mortgage rates have decreased. The 30-year fixed rate is 0.45% lower than this week last year, and the 15-year rate is down 0.29%.Mortgage rates are also below their 52-week averages. The average 30-year rate is down 0.21% from its 52-week average, and the 15-year rate is 0.12% lower.Today’s mortgage rates are actually lower than Freddie Mac’s historical average. Since Freddie Mac started tracking 30-year fixed mortgage rates in 1971, the average is 7.69%. The current rate is 1.47% lower than the historical average.
Source: Freddie Mac
Related: Fannie Mae predicts shifts in mortgage rates, housing market

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Average mortgage rates today

Mortgage Type
Label
Rate
APR

30-Year Fixed
Most Popular
6.39%
6.54%

30-Year FHA
Lower Credit
6.17%
6.57%

30-Year VA
Military
6.29%
6.54%

30-Year Jumbo
High Balance
6.55%
6.65%

15-Year Fixed
Shorter Term
5.87%
5.97%

7/1 ARM
Shorter Term
5.64%
5.84%

HELOC
Home Equity
7.12%
6.05% – 8.15%

Home Equity Loan
Home Equity
6.94%
6.25% – 7.49%

Updated on 03/18/2026

Average mortgage rates shown are national averages compiled from a range of sources, including major U.S. lenders and financial institutions. Accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed, and rates may change without notice. Rates do not constitute an offer or guarantee of credit. Actual APRs vary based on lender, creditworthiness, loan amount, term, and lender fees. Not all products are available in all states.

Key Takeaways
Mortgage rates inched higher today as economic concerns continue to apply upward pressure on Treasury yields.

Daily mortgage rates are averaging close to 6.4% for well-qualified borrowers.
Despite the recent upward trend in rates, affordability has improved compared to recent years.
Mortgage rates updated daily, Monday through Friday; last updated March 18, 2026

Mortgage rate trends
Freddie Mac’s benchmark rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.22% for the week ending March 19, representing an increase of 0.11 percentage points from the previous week. Despite the uptick, the 30-year rate remains nearly half a percentage point lower than a year ago, providing improved affordability for well-qualified buyers.
Money’s daily rate survey, on the other hand, shows the rate on a 30-year loan averaging about 6.4%, significantly higher than in February, when they averaged about 6.1%.
As for where rates might be heading in the near future, prospective borrowers should expect rates to remain elevated for the time being. According to Anthony Smith, Realtor.com’s senior economist, rising oil prices due to the Iran War and uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on inflation are “putting upward pressure on longer-term interest rates,” including mortgage rates.
Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates for the week ending March 19, 2026
Freddie Mac mortgage rate trends

For its weekly rate analysis, Freddie Mac reviews rates offered for the week ending each Thursday. The average rate reflects what a borrower with strong credit and a 20% down payment can expect to obtain when applying for a mortgage at this time. Borrowers with lower credit scores will generally be offered higher rates.

Average refinancing rates today
Refinancing a mortgage can be a good way to improve your financial position by lowering your interest rate and monthly payment, or by using home equity to reduce your debt.

Today’s average mortgage refinance rates

Loan terms

Lastest rates

30-year fixed-rate refinance loan

6.44% ? 0.022%

15-year fixed-rate refinance loan

5.88% ? 0.04%

7/1 adjustable-rate refinance loan

5.65% ? 0.032%

10/1 adjustable-rate refinance loan

5.91% ? 0.043%

 

Source: Money.com

Money’s daily mortgage rates are a national average and reflect what a borrower with a 20% down payment, no points paid and a 780 credit score — considered an excellent score that qualifies a borrower for the best rates — might pay if they applied for a home loan right now. Rates are updated daily between 3:30 and 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time and are based on the average rate offered by 8,000 lenders to applicants that day. Your individual rate will vary depending on your location, lender and financial details.
These rates differ from Freddie Mac’s, which represent a weekly average based on a survey of quoted rates offered to borrowers with strong credit, a 20% down payment and discounts for points paid.
If you’re offered a higher rate than expected, ask why and compare offers from multiple lenders. (Money’s list of the Best Mortgage Lenders is a good place to start. Homeowners considering a mortgage refinance should consider our list of the Best Mortgage Refinance Companies.)
Use Money’s mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly payment, considering different rate scenarios.
What you need to know about current mortgage rates
Mortgage rates, along with home prices, are key components of the formula for homeownership. Most importantly, they can help determine how much home you can afford. This guide addresses some of the most frequently asked questions about rates and their impact on the housing market.
Types of mortgage rates
When shopping for a mortgage, you may be offered two types, each with a different interest-rate arrangement: fixed-rate and adjustable-rate loans. Understanding the differences between the two is important when deciding which best suits your needs.
Fixed-rate mortgages
As the name implies, fixed-rate loans have a fixed interest rate that remains constant throughout the loan term. The most common term lengths are 30 and 15 years; however, some lenders offer additional options. Generally, the interest rate on a 30-year loan will be higher than that on a 15-year loan, but the monthly payment will be lower because you’re extending the payback period.
Most homebuyers prefer fixed-rate loans because their monthly mortgage payments remain relatively constant throughout the life of the loan. However, other costs typically rolled into the mortgage, such as homeowners’ insurance and property taxes, can change, leading to fluctuations in your monthly payment over time.
Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs)
The interest rate on adjustable-rate mortgages does not adjust from the beginning. Instead, the rate will be fixed for a predetermined number of years. Once the fixed period ends, the rate becomes variable and adjusts at regular intervals, known as the “adjustment period,” with the length of this period defined in the mortgage terms. Depending on market conditions, rates could increase or decrease at the end of each period.
The most common type of ARM is a 5/6 loan, in which the interest rate is fixed for 5 years and then adjusts every six months. There are also options for 7/6 loans and 10/6 loans. Because the interest rates on ARMs tend to be lower than those on fixed-rate loans during the initial (fixed-rate) phase, adjustable-rate loans are a good option for borrowers who don’t plan to stay in the home beyond the fixed-rate period.
Other information you should know about mortgage rates
When comparing rates from different lenders, you’ll see two different numbers: the interest rate and the annual percentage rate (APR).
The interest rate is the amount a lender charges on the principal amount borrowed. Consider it the basic cost of borrowing money for a home purchase.
An APR represents the total cost of borrowing money, including interest and other fees. It includes the interest rate plus any fees associated with generating the loan. The APR will always be higher than the interest rate.
For example, a $300,000 loan at 3.1% interest and $2,100 in fees would have an APR of 3.169%.
When comparing rates from different lenders, look at the APR and the interest rate. The APR represents the total cost of the loan over the full term, including loan origination and lender fees. The interest rate is the amount of interest the lender charges on the borrowed loan amount, excluding additional fees. You’ll also need to consider what you can pay upfront versus what you can pay over time.
Mortgage refinance rates
Homeowners may decide to refinance for various reasons, including lowering their interest rate, extending the loan term, or tapping into their home equity. Refinance rates tend to be higher than purchase rates, so carefully weigh the pros and cons before deciding whether a “refi” is the right step.

Factors affecting today’s mortgage rates
Rates alone do not fully determine the loan’s cost or your monthly payment. The following factors, detailed in your lender’s loan disclosures, also apply.
Loan term
As a general rule, the longer the loan term, the smaller the payments but the more costly the loan overall. Choosing a 15-year mortgage instead of a 30-year mortgage will increase the monthly payment but reduce total interest paid over the life of the loan.
Loan type
With a fixed-rate mortgage loan, payments remain the same throughout the life of the loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages reset regularly (after an introductory period), and the monthly payment adjusts accordingly.
A mortgage whose size exceeds the federal loan limit is known as a “jumbo” or “non-conforming” loan. Such mortgages usually have lower rates but more stringent credit requirements.
Taxes, HOA fees, insurance
Home insurance premiums, property taxes and homeowners association fees are often bundled into your monthly mortgage payment. Consult your real estate agent for an estimate of these costs.
Private mortgage insurance
Private mortgage insurance can cost up to 1.5% of your home loan’s value each year. Borrowers with conventional loans can avoid private mortgage insurance by making a down payment of at least 20% of the property’s purchase price or by building at least 20% equity in the loan principal. FHA borrowers pay a mortgage insurance premium throughout the life of the loan.
Closing costs
Closing costs include origination fees and other loan expenses. These extra charges typically range from 2% to 5% of the mortgage amount and are usually paid up front. Some buyers finance their new home’s closing costs into the loan, which increases the principal and raises their monthly payments.
Loan-to-value ratio (LTV)
The LTV measures the risk a lender takes when financing a property. The figure compares the loan amount to the home’s value. The higher the LTV, the greater the lender’s risk — and, ultimately, the higher the mortgage rate for the borrower.
Economic factors
Lenders use several factors to determine mortgage rates on a daily basis. While every lender’s formula varies slightly, it typically factors in the current federal funds rate (a short-term rate set by the Federal Reserve), competitors’ rates, and other relevant factors, sometimes including the number of underwriters available. Your qualifications as a borrower will also affect the rate you are offered.
In general, rates track the yields on the 10-year Treasury note. Average mortgage rates are usually about 1.8 percentage points higher than the yield on the 10-year note. In times of economic uncertainty, such as periods of high inflation, Treasury yields tend to rise. That, in turn, pushes all types of interest rates higher, including those on home loans.
How mortgage rates affect affordability
The rate on your mortgage can make a big difference in how much home you can afford and the size of your monthly payments. That’s true whether buying your primary residence, an investment property or refinancing an existing loan.
Here’s an example. If you bought a $250,000 home and made a 20% down payment of $50,000, you would end up with a starting loan balance of $200,000. On a $200,000 home loan with a fixed rate for 30 years, here’s what you would pay:

At a 3% interest rate = $843 in monthly payment (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)
At a 4% interest rate = $955 in monthly payment (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)
At a 6% interest rate = $1,199 in monthly payment (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)
At an 8% interest rate = $1,468 in monthly payment (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)

Experimenting with a mortgage calculator allows you to find out how much a lower rate or other changes could impact what you pay. A home affordability calculator can also estimate the maximum loan amount you may qualify for based on your income, debt-to-income ratio, mortgage interest rate and other variables. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau can also provide a range of rates offered by lenders in each state.

How to get the best mortgage rate
One of the most effective ways to find the best mortgage rate is to shop around, according to Freddie Mac. Borrowers who get a rate quote from just one additional lender save an average of $600 over the life of the loan. Those savings can increase up to $1,200 if you obtain three quotes. A larger down payment amount will also result in a lower interest rate.
The best mortgage lender for you will be the one that can offer the lowest rate and the terms you want. Your local bank or credit union is a good place to start. Online lenders have expanded their market share over the past decade and promise to get you pre-approved within minutes.
You can also lower the offered rate by buying discount points, also known as mortgage points. A point typically costs 1% of the loan amount and can reduce the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points.
Compare loan options, rates, and terms, and ensure your lender offers the type of mortgage you need. Not all lenders write FHA loans, USDA-backed mortgages or VA loans, for example. If you’re unsure about a lender’s credentials, request its NMLS number and verify its reputation online.
Once you find the best rate, get a rate lock to guarantee it won’t change before you can close the loan. Obtaining a preapproval letter can also be helpful.

Current mortgage rates FAQ
When will mortgage rates go down?
Mortgage rates have been trending lower after hitting a high of 7.08% last November. While most experts believe rates will eventually move into the 5% range, borrowers should expect them to remain between 6% and 7% for the foreseeable future.
Should I lock in my mortgage rate today?
Yes. Obtaining a mortgage rate lock as soon as you have an accepted offer on a house (and find a rate you’re comfortable with) can help guarantee a competitive rate and affordable monthly payments on your loan. A rate lock means that your lender will guarantee your agreed-upon rate, typically for 45 to 60 days, regardless of market fluctuations. Ask your lender about “float-down” options as well, which allow you to snag a lower interest rate if average rates drop during your lock period. This option usually comes with a fee that ranges between 0.50% and 1% of the loan amount.
What are discount points on a mortgage?
Discount points are a way for borrowers to reduce the interest they pay on a mortgage. By buying points, you’re basically prepaying some of the interest the bank charges on the loan. In return, you get a lower interest rate, which can lead to lower monthly payments and additional savings on the cost of the loan over its full term. Each mortgage point normally costs 1% of your loan amount and could shave up to 0.25 percentage points off your interest rate.
Why is my mortgage rate higher than average?
You may have a higher-than-average mortgage rate for a number of reasons. Credit scores, loan terms, interest rate types (fixed or adjustable), down payment size, home location and loan size will all affect the rate offered to individual home shoppers. One of the best ways to lower your rate is to improve your credit score.
Different mortgage lenders offer different rates. It’s estimated that about half of all buyers only look at one lender, primarily because they tend to trust referrals from their real estate agent. But shopping around for a lender will help you snag the lowest rate out there.
Should I refinance my mortgage when interest rates drop?
Refinancing your mortgage when interest rates drop could make sense if it provides a tangible benefit; be it lower monthly payments or a shorter loan term. Determining whether now is the right time to refinance your home loan involves a number of factors. Most experts say you should consider refinancing if your current mortgage rate exceeds today’s rates by at least 0.50 percentage points. But since there are fees involved, it doesn’t make sense to refinance every time rates inch down.

The December 2025 inflation reading came in at 2.7% year over year and then 2.4% in January and February 2026. That’s above the Federal Reserve’s target, but a far cry from the 9.0% peak we saw in mid-2022—and let’s hope it stays that way. The past decade took fixed-income investors on a wild ride, from years of low inflation and rock-bottom yields to a sharp inflationary spike and the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in a generation. So, how did bond funds actually fare over those 10 years? They’re supposed to offer a relatively safe haven from market volatility. But did they protect investors against inflation? To find out, we looked at 10-year cumulative real returns for US taxable-bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds through December 2025, adjusting for inflation using the Consumer Price Index. For each fund, we selected the best-performing share class and grouped results into five buckets, from “real loss” (down more than 10%) to “strong real gain” (up more than 25%).The Big Picture: Not as Bad as Feared Across the taxable fixed-income universe, the results were decent. About 70% of funds managed to at least keep up with inflation, with roughly a fifth generating cumulative real returns north of 25%. About 30% failed to keep pace, with 3% suffering severe real losses. Things get more interesting when you break the funds into Morningstar Categories.Credit Helped, Duration HurtThe clearest pattern: Credit exposure paid off, while duration often worked against investors. High-yield funds stand out. Nearly 80% delivered strong real gains. Fidelity Capital & Income FAGIX posted a 56% cumulative real return; Vanguard High-Yield Corporate VWEHX and T. Rowe Price High Yield PRHYX each cleared 25%. Bank loans told a similar story; Fidelity Floating Rate High Income FFRHX and T. Rowe Price Floating Rate PRFRX landed in the strong-gain bucket. Multisector bond funds also fared well. Pimco Income PONAX, one of the largest bond funds in the country, delivered a 20% real gain. Loomis Sayles Strategic Income NEFZX and Pimco Diversified Income PDVAX each topped 28%. Emerging-market debt performed better than many might assume. Fidelity New Markets Income FNMIX posted a 15% real return, and most funds in the category were in double-digit territory.Government-focused strategies were a mixed bag. Short government funds saw the majority fail to keep pace with inflation. Vanguard Short-Term Federal VSGDX lost more than 11% in real terms. Intermediate-government funds were a relatively bright spot in this group; more than two-thirds managed to keep up with inflation. But long government bonds were decidedly bad; only 11% managed to keep up with inflation. Mortgage-backed securities disappointed, too. Vanguard GNMA VFIJX lost nearly 15% of its purchasing power; American Funds Mortgage MFAEX ended the decade down more than 11%. Rate volatility and negative convexity repeatedly punished the sector. In the intermediate core bond category, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index VBTLX lost nearly 11% in real terms, while JPMorgan Core Bond PGBOX managed a modest positive real return.TIPS Did Their JobInflation-protected bond funds largely delivered what they promised. About three-fourths preserved purchasing power, clustering in the 0%–10% real return range. Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities VAIPX was essentially flat in real terms. For those who wanted inflation protection without credit risk, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities did their job. The Uncomfortable Lesson The past decade wasn’t uniformly bad for bond investors, but it exposed a hard truth: “Safe” and “safe in real terms” are not the same thing. Investors who reached for credit through high-yield, bank loans, or flexible multisector strategies generally fared better.This article first appeared in the February 2026 issue of Morningstar FundInvestor. Download a complimentary copy of FundInvestor by visiting this website.

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