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Howmet Aerospace (HWM) had one of the roughest weeks a market favorite can have, and it happened for reasons that had almost nothing to do with the company’s actual business.

The stock dropped hard after a surprise announcement from Elon Musk, then started climbing again once Wall Street had time to read the fine print.

By the time Jim Cramer got to it on his show, the argument had already shifted from panic to opportunity.

On Wednesday, Sept. 2, during the Lightning Round segment of CNBC’s “Mad Money,” Cramer told viewers to hold or add to Howmet, calling it the best way to play aerospace, since the other names are too difficult.

For investors, that kind of call raises a fair question: Is this a bargain, or a warning?

What triggered the Howmet Aerospace sell-off

The trouble started with a post on X (the former Twitter) from Elon Musk.

Musk said SpaceX (SPCX) plans to cast its own turbine blades and vanes in-house, the intricate metal parts that sit inside the hottest section of a gas turbine.

The goal is to speed up power generation for artificial intelligence data centers, tied to a planned 20-gigawatt project in Bastrop, Texas.

Here’s why that alarmed people: Howmet is one of only a handful of companies on the planet that can make these parts, so any hint of a new rival hits a nerve fast.

Investors treated Musk’s plan as a customer turning into a competitor, and Howmet shares fell as much as 7.7% on Monday, Aug. 31, before closing down more than 8%, according to CNBC.

The stock was trading near $265 before the news hit, and it immediately crashed to a much lower price as soon as the market opened.

Howmet Aerospace makes the precision-cast turbine blades at the center of the AI power buildout.Cheng Xin / Getty Images

Why Wall Street sees the SpaceX threat as small

Two major banks pushed back within hours, and their reasoning is worth understanding before you make any decision.

Casting these blades takes decades of specialized, proprietary knowledge that a new entrant cannot buy overnight.

Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned kept his Outperform rating and raised his price target to $328 from $248, writing that he sees little risk to Howmet from the SpaceX move, GuruFocus noted.

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His core point is about scarcity. Howmet holds more than 50% of the market for these castings and has customer agreements running into 2030.

Citi analyst John Godyn agreed, keeping a Buy rating and a $329 target while opening a 30-day catalyst watch on the stock.

Godyn called the drop a unique and likely short-lived opportunity in the shares.

The read from both firms is simple. A buyer with deep pockets building its own supply is a sign of how tight capacity has become, not proof that Howmet is losing its edge.

How the AI power boom actually helps Howmet

What people overlook during the panic is that artificial intelligence helps this company’s business rather than hurting it. 

Data centers need enormous amounts of electricity, and much of that will come from natural gas turbines for years to come.

Related: Top defense contractor scores huge U.S. Army payday, stock jumps

Every one of those turbines needs the blades and vanes that Howmet makes.

That demand is already showing up in the numbers. Howmet’s gas-turbine revenue jumped 39% in the first quarter after a 25% gain across all of 2025, according to a press release.

Because supply is so tight, Howmet keeps strong pricing power, which means it can charge more without losing orders.

The company is also expanding, with six more projects expected to lift blade capacity by as much as 38% from early 2025 levels.

Rivals such as GE Vernova and Siemens Energy are racing to add casting capacity, too, which tells you the shortage is real across the whole industry.

Why Cramer trusts Howmet’s core aerospace business

Cramer’s confidence rests on more than the turbine business.

Howmet also supplies parts for jet engines, and that side of the business stays busy, even when its biggest customers struggle.

Aircraft makers including Boeing (BA) have wrestled with production delays for years, yet Howmet keeps benefiting from demand for replacement parts and defense upgrades.

Airlines need a steady supply of spare parts to keep their existing planes flying, and that recurring demand lands on Howmet, regardless of how new aircraft deliveries are going.

This is the point Cramer keeps coming back to. Howmet earns money, whether its customers are thriving or just maintaining what they already have.

That mix of engine parts and turbine blades gives the company two separate growth engines, which is rare in a single stock.

What to weigh before buying the Howmet dip

Cramer has spent more than two decades hosting “Mad Money” and ran a hedge fund before that, so his aerospace calls carry weight with many retail investors.

Still, his endorsement does not remove the risks, and there are a few you should know.

Howmet trades at a steep valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio near 55, meaning the market already prices in strong future growth.

When a stock sits that high, any bad headline can trigger sharp swings, which is exactly what the SpaceX news showed.

Here are the key figures to keep in mind.

Howmet Aerospace by the numbers

Recent share price: About $256, partially recovered from the week’s low but below Wall Street targets

Average analyst price targets: $340, implying solid double-digit gains from current levels

Price-to-earnings ratio: About 55, a rich multiple that reflects high growth expectations

Consensus rating: Carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, with 12 of 14 analysts calling it a Buy

If you want exposure but worry about the volatility, spreading purchases over time through dollar-cost averaging can soften the effect of short-term swings.

That approach means buying a fixed dollar amount on a regular schedule instead of putting everything in at once.

The bottom line for Howmet investors

The market’s first reaction to the SpaceX news was fear, and that fear created the dip that Cramer and two major banks now want investors to consider.

The company that makes the parts still holds its lead, still has contracts locked in through 2030, and still benefits from an AI power buildout that shows no sign of slowing.

The main catch is price. 

Howmet is expensive, and expensive stocks fall fast when the news turns.

For long-term investors who believe in the aerospace and AI power story, the recent drop offers a cheaper entry point than the stock has shown in months.

For anyone uneasy with big price swings, it is much smarter to buy small amounts over time rather than rushing to buy everything during a rebound. 

Either way, the reason the stock fell had little to do with how the business is actually performing, and that gap is what Cramer is pointing his viewers toward.

Related: The winners in China’s missile leap

For decades, employers managed the routine mechanics of saving, withholding taxes, and depositing funds on a fixed schedule with little action required from workers. 

Retirement replaces that system with a collection of accounts, tax rules, and withdrawal decisions that most people have never practiced making.

A framework from Fidelity, published in the firm’s guide “How to recreate your paycheck in retirement,” outlines six steps for turning retirement savings into a reliable income stream.

The guide covers familiar territory, from expense inventories to withdrawal sequencing. But it places unusual emphasis on one often-skipped operational step: automating recurring transfers from retirement accounts directly into a checking account.

That single move addresses two problems at once: unpredictable cash flow and the risk of failing to meet required minimum distributions.

Most retirees skip the step that Fidelity’s framework singles out

A 2025 survey from the TIAA Institute and Nuveen found that just 22% of 401(k) participants had thought “a lot” about how they would actually draw down their retirement accounts.

Even among late-career participants who expect their 401(k) to serve as their primary retirement income source, just 26% reported meaningful withdrawal planning.

Fidelity recommends scheduling automatic transfers from retirement accounts to a checking account, timed to align with bill due dates so income arrives predictably.

Nancy Anderson, director of wealth planning programs and initiatives at Key Private Bank, told Kiplinger that routing money to a checking account on a recurring schedule helps retirees resist the urge to sell during downturns.

Having that liquidity bucket and then transferring money on a monthly basis to a checkbook is very helpful and can help people stay invested in the long term,

Many custodians, including Schwab and Vanguard, now offer automated required minimum distribution services that calculate the annual amount and distribute it in installments.

How the IRS penalizes missed required minimum distributions

The compliance stakes behind that automation are steep. Starting at age 73, the IRS requires annual distributions from tax-deferred accounts, including traditional 401(k)s and traditional individual retirement accounts.

The penalty for falling short is 25% of the amount not withdrawn. That rate drops to 10% if the retiree corrects the error within two years by filing Form 5329 and withdrawing the missed sum.

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A Vanguard analysis of its client base found that 6.7% of traditional IRA holders at required distribution age made no withdrawal in 2024. Their average required distribution was $11,600, exposing them to potential penalties of $1,160 to $2,900.

A 73-year-old uses a distribution period of 26.5, but that figure drops to 16.0 by age 85, forcing a larger share of the account into taxable income annually, Schwab’s required minimum distribution reference guide shows.

Missed required minimum distributions can trigger IRS penalties of up to 25%, creating costly tax consequences for retirees.PIKSEL / Getty Images

The setup needs annual revisiting: tax brackets and withdrawal order

The automated transfer schedule addresses cash flow and RMD compliance, but the amounts and account sources behind it shift every year alongside tax law, balances, and spending needs.

Bob Peterson, senior wealth advisor at Crescent Grove Advisors, told Kiplinger that the moment a retiree’s paycheck disappears is often the best time to act, because the tax bracket typically drops significantly during that transition.

Hayden Adams, director of tax and wealth management at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, wrote in Schwab’s retirement guide that smoothing out income spikes from required distributions can reduce total taxes paid across retirement. 

Adams and Peterson both point to the window between retirement and the start of required distributions at age 73 as the most flexible period for a retiree to manage taxable income.

That initial bracket drop is only the first shift, as tax brackets change with inflation and account balances fluctuate with markets. Spending needs also evolve as retirees age into Medicare or face changing housing, healthcare, and other costs.

A withdrawal that stayed within the 22% bracket one year could reach the 24% bracket the next. That makes Adams’s smoothing strategy effective only when annual brackets and account balances are regularly reassessed.

How retirees sequence those withdrawals also changes the math. Fidelity’s traditional approach draws from taxable brokerage accounts first, then tax-deferred accounts, and reserves Roth accounts for last. 

The proportional approach draws from all three account types each year, helping stabilize annual tax bills and potentially lower lifetime taxes. It can also reduce the impact of required distributions on Social Security taxation and Medicare premiums.

Both sequences affect how much enters adjusted gross income annually, which is why the automation settings that looked right at 65 may need recalibrating at 73 and again at 80.

What Fidelity’s retirement paycheck framework means for your withdrawal setup

Anderson emphasized that maintaining one to three years of spending in liquid reserves before setting up monthly transfers gives retirees a buffer to stay invested through a volatile period.

Automation cannot determine which accounts to tap or in what proportions; that decision is shaped by guaranteed income and monthly expenses. It also depends on how much is held in pre-tax versus after-tax accounts and how close the IRS-mandated withdrawal floor is.

Those ratios change year to year, which is why Fidelity’s final step tells retirees to revisit the plan annually rather than treat the initial setup as permanent.

The automation step anchors Fidelity’s framework: recurring transfers timed to bill cycles convert retirement accounts into predictable monthly income while preventing missed RMDs and their 25% penalty.

Related: Schwab warns of a retirement risk easy to overlook

Costco usually makes its decisions with members in mind.

That’s especially important because membership fees account for a huge share of the company’s profit.

“Costco’s membership fees contributed some 72% to its operating income last year,” according to Retail Dive.

That makes gaining and retaining members pretty important, if not the most important, business metrics for the warehouse club.

Costco has done both of these well.

In the third quarter, the warehouse club reported membership fee income of $1.373 billion, an increase of $133 million or 10.7% year over year. Adjusting for FX, the increase was 9.9%, according to CFO Gary Millerchip, speaking during the company’s Q3 earnings.

That makes it somewhat surprising that the warehouse club recently killed a popular member service.

Costco killed Costco Next with no notice

Costco Next, which lets members access items the warehouse club does not stock, sort of like Amazon’s Marketplace, expanded product availability for Costco members. Products offered there were vetted by Costco’s team but were delivered by third-party partners.

It’s not a new service; it has technically been around since 2017. But Costco does not promote the offering, and it’s something I, and like many members, did not know about.

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That service was closed in early September with no notice.

Visitors to the Costco Next web page got a terse message from the company.

“Access to Costco Next store fronts is no longer available. Please refer to the list below for contact information for vendors with active return policies. For eligible returns and warranty inquiries, contact the vendor directly,” the company shared.

That was followed by a long list of company names with their contact information.

Costco Next, before its abrupt closure, gave members up to 40% off on select products not offered in the chain’s warehouses. The program featured items from a specific list of vendor partners, ranging from home goods and luggage to electronics.

Costco Next was a curated digital marketplace.Shutterstock

Costco Next was fast-growing

It was not that long ago that Costco CFO Gary Millerchip was bragging about Costco Next’s quick growth.

“Costco Next, our curated marketplace, also continues to grow nicely. And we added eight new vendors in Q3, bringing the total to 75,” he said during the chain’s third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

Millerchip also made it clear that Next was different than other marketplace offerings.

“I think the difference for us on that would be, of course, that we are with Costco Next. It’s just being very curated for the members. So, we’re unlike a traditional marketplace that is about maybe just sheer volume. For us, it’s about making sure the members are getting something that truly is unique and valuable and consistent with who we are,” he added.

At the time, the CFO expressed strong support for the program.

“And it’s a tremendous upside opportunity there in that regard,” he said.

Costco has not commented on the shutdown and did not answer a request from TheStreet for comment.

Costco recently celebrated Costco Next’s success

“Costco Next, our curated marketplace, also continues to show healthy year-over-year growth. In Q3 fiscal year 2025, our sales on Costco Next equaled our total sales for all of fiscal year 2022, and we are excited about the pipeline of new vendors and development for future rollout,” CFO Gary Millerchip said during the company’s third-quarter 2025 earnings call.

Products are offered from hand‑selected suppliers chosen for the quality of their merchandise and strong customer service, expanding the variety beyond typical warehouse inventory.

The platform helps Costco offer higher‑margin discretionary items (e.g., electronics, appliances, goods sold directly from vendors) while leveraging member pricing perks.

The impetus for Costco Next is to strengthen e‑commerce and mobile growth by offering discounted deals from trusted brands that complement warehouse inventory.Source: Costco website (now removed)

“Separate from what members will find in the warehouses or at Costco.com, Costco Next showcases products from some of Costco’s suppliers that have been selected for the quality of their merchandise and their exceptional customer service,” Costco General Merchandise Manager Cheryl Smeby said on Costco’s website.

Costco abandons an area that’s growing for rivals

Costco’s decision is particularly notable because marketplace models have become an increasingly important part of e-commerce.

Next expanded the selection of items available at warehouse club-style prices for Costco members while also featuring the company’s stamp of approval.

That’s different from most marketplaces. For example, companies such as Amazon and Walmart offer fulfillment services to vendors not stocked in their stores, but do not make the extensive curation effort Costco does.

Amazon’s Marketplace has been a sales driver for the online retailer.

“According to Marketplace Pulse estimates based on Amazon disclosures, first-party sales reached $255 billion and third-party marketplace sales reached $575 billion, with both segments growing at nearly identical 9% rates. This marks a continuation of the 6-10% growth range Amazon has maintained since 2022, returning to steady expansion after the exceptional 46% surge during the 2020 COVID peak,” Marketplace Pulse shared based on 2025 Amazon numbers.

An SEC-filed presentation from marketplace investor Ian Friedman delivered in 2021 shows just how many companies have leaned into marketplace offerings.

“Ten years ago, there were really only two marketplaces of scale, Amazon and eBay. Today, we’ve seen an explosion of other marketplaces. Walmart, Target, Google, Facebook, Instagram, Kroger, and others have gotten into the mix, where third-party online marketplaces have become an important part of their growth strategy,” he shared.

Many of these offerings, he noted, have been successful.

“These additional marketplaces are also seeing significant growth. For example, Walmart marketplace sales grew 80% year over year in 2020. Third-party marketplaces are currently 30% of U.S. e-commerce sales and are expected to grow to 41% of e-commerce sales in the U.S., over half a trillion dollars by 2025,” he added.

The data, at least at the time, suggest that Costco may have walked away from an opportunity.

“So at 30% of all e-commerce today, growing nearly two-and-a-half times faster than first-party e-commerce, the implications for brands are that most realize that not selling on third-party marketplaces means a lost opportunity to capture consumers where they love to shop,” he shared.

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When sports leagues like the NFL accepted sports betting as a justifiable way to increase revenue and exposure, they did so with the idea that betting companies would partner with them.

But sports betting was always a Pandora’s box, and no league, not even one as powerful as the NFL, could control what came next.

Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, are the next inevitable iteration of America’s suddenly mainstream gambling culture. But the NFL is quickly learning that it does not have the same pull with the new guys as it has with its official gambling partners.

This week, the NFL sent a letter to Kalshi and Polymarket asking them, once again, to stop offering bets that the league finds objectionable.

NFL sends letter to Polymarket, Kalshi

ABC News obtained a letter from NFL Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel, addressed to Polymarket and Kalshi, asking the prediction markets to “prohibit offering objectionable bets that threaten the integrity of our games.”

According to the letter, this isn’t the first time the league has contacted them with concerns about the prediction contracts they offer. But with the NFL kickoff game less than a week away on Wednesday, Sept. 9, the league seems to be doubling down on its request to rein in the bets being offered.

“It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges,” the letter stated, according to ABC News.

“Continuing to list these objectionable contracts threatens the underlying integrity of our games and creates significant risks for our players, coaches, and officials, as well as for those participating on your exchanges.”

Which prediction-market bets does the NFL find objectionable?

Kalshi and Polymarket get around being regulated like sports betting companies by insisting that they are only peer-to-peer prediction markets where participants trade contracts against each other based on real-time probabilities.

Sports betting, on the other hand, involves placing a static wager against a house with fixed odds.

The U.S. Supreme Court will soon decide whether that distinction is enough to keep them unregulated, Reuters reported. In the meantime, they have a lot of latitude to offer “objectionable bets” (the NFL’s words) that FanDuel and DraftKings can’t.

Related: Polymarket’s public ledger may be leaking military secrets

Contracts having to do with player injuries, fan safety, and player misconduct threaten the integrity of the game, according to the NFL.

Some contracts are so potentially easy to manipulate by one person that the NFL is asking Kalshi and Polymarket to stop offering several kinds of bets:

Whether a kicker will miss a field goal

Whether a quarterback’s first pass will be incomplete

Whether a receiver’s first target will be incomplete

Whether a running back will rush for fewer than a certain number of yards on his first attempt

The NFL also asked the prediction markets to stop offering predictions on officiating, such as how many flags with be thrown.

Neither Polymarket nor Kalshi immediately responded to a request for comment from TheStreet.

The NFL has again asked Kalshi and Polymarket to stop offering “objectionable bets.”Aaron M. Sprecher / Getty Images

Kalshi, Polymarket starting to overtake DraftKings, FanDuel

During the NFL and College Football seasons, it may seem as though every other advertisement on television or your phone is promoting sports gambling. But according to the American Gaming Association (AGA), sports gaming ad spend is falling, while prediction-market advertising is exploding.

Digital ad impressions for online sportsbooks fell by nearly 14% in 2025. On the other hand, prediction market ads accounted for nearly 20% of the digital sports betting ads seen by consumers. And they’ve only become more prominent in 2026.

“As ‘prediction markets’ continue aggressively promoting their sports betting business, more than half of sports betting ads seen by consumers this year did not need to comply with state responsible gaming regulations,” the AGA said.

The AGA estimates that $29.5 billion will be bet with domestic sportsbooks during the NFL season, only a 0.3% increase from last season’s total. Growth has been slowing for months now, as the period from last September through May only saw 4% growth this year after growing by 14% during the previous nine-month period.

Rotowire is projecting a record $32.3 billion will be wagered via legal U.S. sportsbooks during the upcoming NFL betting season in what it describes as a “marginal increase from last season.”

Meanwhile, prediction markets are projected to trade $36.8 billion on NFL outcomes, more than double what they handled last season.

Related: Kalshi imposes stark new rule for certain traders