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Micron now targets 40% of its DRAM output from U.S. soil
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) said it will raise its planned U.S. investment to more than $250 billion through 2035, according to a Seeking Alpha report on the company’s Thursday, July 9, announcement.That figure is $50 billion more than the roughly $200 billion the company committed to just over a year ago, based on a Micron SEC filing.The increase arrived alongside a construction milestone in Clay, New York, where Micron poured the first concrete for its new megafab three months ahead of schedule.The timing matters more than the number. Micron isn’t expanding because it wants more capacity someday. It’s expanding because it can’t build fast enough to keep up with demand it already has, and its own CEO won’t say when that pressure eases.Micron flags memory shortage with no end date attachedIn an interview with FOX Business’s Liz Claman, Micron chairman and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said “memory is in deep shortage right now,” and that the expanded investment is meant to pull in the timelines on new supply.It’s a direct admission that the $250 billion figure is defensive as much as ambitious.Claman pressed him on when the shortage would end, noting Micron had previously said tightness would last beyond 2027. Mehrotra wouldn’t commit to a date.Related: Veteran analyst drops massive Micron valuation prediction“We are not putting a date or month on it, because the demand just continues to go up as well,” he said in the same interview.Part of that is simple physics. Mehrotra told Claman that “from shovel in the ground to getting first silicon out is good three to four years’ time frame,” even when construction moves fast.That timeline is why Micron is pouring concrete now for supply it won’t ship until later in the decade.That uncertainty is backed by contracts, not just talk. Mehrotra said Micron has signed 16 customers to strategic supply agreements running as far out as 2030, a sign buyers expect the crunch to outlast this investment cycle.
Micron raised its U.S. investment plan to $250 billion as CEO Sanjay Mehrotra declined to say when the memory shortage will end.Bloomberg / Getty Images
Wall Street reads Micron rally as more than optimismMicron (MU) shares climbed almost 5% on July 9, according to CNBC. Other chip equipment and design names, including Applied Materials, KLA, Lam Research, and Arm Holdings, rallied the same day.That breadth matters. Investors weren’t just repricing Micron. They were pricing in a longer AI infrastructure buildout across the memory supply chain.The move follows a separate bullish signal. Citi analysts placed Micron on an upside catalyst watch this week, citing expectations that DRAM prices could nearly triple in 2027. Combined with the July 9 investment news, that forecast suggests Wall Street sees this shortage as a multi-year pricing story, not a short squeeze.The rally still comes with a caveat memory investors know well. Micron cut about 15% of its global workforce in 2023 when memory prices collapsed during the last downturn, a history Claman raised directly in the interview.A $250 billion, decade-long bet only pays off if this cycle doesn’t repeat that one.Apple is already paying for the memory shortageMicron doesn’t operate in isolation, and the same tightness fueling its investment plans is squeezing its customers.Apple raised prices on iPads, Macs, and other hardware by roughly $100 to $200 per device in late June, citing what it called an unprecedented jump in memory and storage costs. Apple shares fell as much as 6% the day the increases took effect.More Micron:Morgan Stanley resets Micron stock price target on strong AI demandMicron just dethroned Nvidia in one key wayBank of America strongly resets Micron stock price targetReuters reported that memory makers including Micron have prioritized orders from AI chipmakers like Nvidia in recent months, leaving less supply for consumer electronics makers.That dynamic helps explain why Micron can justify quadrupling domestic capacity. Its highest-value customers now are the AI buildout itself, not the phone and laptop makers that used to set the terms.The bigger story is where the chips get madeBeyond the dollar figure, Micron’s plan is a bet on geography. The company wants 40% of its DRAM output made domestically, and the Clay campus is expected to generate 50,000 New York jobs, including 9,000 direct roles at Micron.Micron is also putting up to $3 billion into supply chain partners, including $500 million in financing for GlobalWafers’ Texas wafer facility, tying a second country’s raw silicon supply into its U.S. footprint through a new 10-year agreement.Washington has framed the deal in strategic terms.U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called the expanded investment a matter of national security in comments cited by the Seeking Alpha report, tying memory manufacturing to broader technology leadership.That framing, reshoring production while locking down raw material access, reflects a wider shift in how chipmakers are hedging against both AI demand spikes and geopolitical risk.Micron isn’t the only company making that bet, but it’s making one of the largest and most public versions of it.The open question isn’t whether Micron builds these fabs. Construction is already ahead of schedule. It’s whether the shortage driving this spending holds long enough to justify it. While Mehrotra won’t put a date on that, investors will need to watch Micron’s upcoming earnings report closely for any shifts in the memory demand cycle.Related: Tokyo puts billions behind Micron’s chip plan
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It Now Takes More Than 50 Years to Save for a Down Payment in These Cities
If you’re starting from scratch, saving for a down payment on your first home could take half your life, depending on where you’re buying.
In two major U.S. metro areas, the typical first-time homebuyer would need to save for at least 50 years, according to a new report by real estate lender Rocket Mortgage. Those cities are New York and San Francisco, where it requires an estimated 65 years and 57 years of saving to afford the standard down payment, respectively.
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“Saving for a down payment takes years of discipline, which is why receiving the keys is such a meaningful milestone,” Bill Banfield, Rocket’s chief business officer, said in the report.
“For anyone hoping to own a home someday, it’s never too early to understand what buyers are putting down in your market and start building a plan.”
In 13 cities, first-time buyers would need to save for at least 20 years, the analysis found. But in several popular metros in the South and Midwest — including Detroit and Fort Worth, Texas — buyers could reach a down payment in five years or less.
Rocket’s analysis looked at nearly 50 major metros across the U.S. It calculated the required years of savings based on local home prices and down payment trends for first-time buyers and assumed they were saving 5% of their annual income.
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Saving for a down payment, by city
Down payments are consistently a major barrier for homebuyers, according to the Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies. For first-time buyers, down payments can be a downright nightmare. That’s because these buyers are typically younger, have less money saved and can’t tap equity from the sale of an existing home to help fund the purchase.
The prospect of saving for decades to afford a down payment can be demoralizing. But there are ways to sidestep that roadblock. And they largely boil down to location.
How Long It Takes First-Time Buyers to Save a Down Payment, by Metro
Metro
Years to Save for a Down Payment
Median Down Payment for First-Time Buyers ($)
Median Down Payment (%)
Median Home Price for First-Time Buyers
New York, NY
65.2
$265,000
30%
$883,333
San Francisco, CA
57.2
$400,000
26.60%
$1,501,466
Los Angeles, CA
41.5
$170,500
20%
$852,500
Boston, MA
37.8
$185,000
22.60%
$819,573
Anaheim, CA
33.6
$170,000
20%
$850,000
San Jose, CA
33.6
$249,000
22%
$1,113,595
San Diego, CA
25.8
$143,500
20%
$717,500
Oakland, CA
25.4
$130,000
20%
$650,000
Washington, D.C.
23.6
$129,500
20%
$647,500
Austin, TX
21.2
$95,700
20%
$478,500
Seattle, WA
21.2
$125,700
20%
$628,500
Nassau County, NY
21
$150,000
20%
$750,000
Providence, RI
20.6
$63,750
15%
$425,000
Nashville, TN
15
$60,200
15.80%
$379,954
Portland, OR
13
$59,670
12.80%
$467,928
Miami, FL
12.9
$42,745
7.70%
$556,155
Denver, CO
12.8
$59,000
12.70%
$466,100
New Brunswick, NJ
10.2
$58,500
15%
$390,000
Montgomery County, PA
10
$56,000
18.60%
$301,399
Sacramento, CA
9.9
$45,407
10%
$454,065
Charlotte, NC
9.3
$40,000
10%
$400,000
Philadelphia, PA
9.1
$27,275
10%
$274,750
Chicago, IL
8.7
$35,125
10%
$351,250
Newark, NJ
8.6
$25,102
6.20%
$404,574
Tampa, FL
8.5
$35,625
10%
$356,250
Dallas, TX
8.4
$31,225
9.40%
$333,002
Cincinnati, OH
8.3
$23,500
8.10%
$289,917
Riverside, CA
8.1
$36,600
5.40%
$681,232
Saint Louis, MO
8.1
$21,675
9.90%
$218,189
Orlando, FL
7.9
$30,750
8.80%
$350,813
Minneapolis, MN
7.1
$27,500
7.90%
$347,806
Atlanta, GA
6.8
$29,970
9.60%
$310,817
Phoenix, AZ
6.6
$28,000
6.20%
$449,198
Houston, TX
6.4
$20,512
7.30%
$282,105
Baltimore, MD
6.2
$20,000
7.70%
$260,917
Kansas City, MO
6.2
$21,750
7.30%
$298,399
Pittsburgh, PA
6.2
$20,715
9.10%
$226,817
Las Vegas, NV
6.1
$23,886
5.30%
$447,471
San Antonio, TX
5.6
$18,628
7.20%
$258,948
West Palm Beach, FL
5.3
$19,569
5.70%
$344,521
Cleveland, OH
5.1
$11,148
5.30%
$209,758
Columbus, OH
5.1
$17,001
6.50%
$262,121
Jacksonville, FL
4.7
$17,121
6.20%
$277,717
Indianapolis, IN
4.4
$14,600
5.60%
$261,273
Milwaukee, WI
4.4
$12,375
5%
$247,500
Fort Worth, TX
4.3
$17,867
5.80%
$306,589
Virginia Beach, VA
4.3
$20,450
6.30%
$323,993
Detroit, MI
3.9
$7,600
5%
$152,000
Warren, MI
3.1
$8,797
5%
$175,940
Adam Hardy for Money.com; Rocket Morgage
Nationally, the median down payment is now $64,000, according to Redfin. As a percentage, that translates to 15% of the median sale price. But that picture can vary drastically from city to city.
In Rocket’s analysis, the time it takes to save for a down payment is not just a reflection of home prices of the area. The estimate also accounts for local incomes and the typical down payment percentage in each market.
In New York, for instance, not only are home prices high, but the typical down payment is a whopping 30%. Rocket noted that the percentage is so high because condo associations in the city tend to have strict rules that require between 20% and 30% down payments.
Large down payments can also be a reflection of the competitiveness of the housing market. Increasingly, first-time buyers have to compete with all-cash buyers, which can result in higher down payments across the board.
A massive down payment isn’t always necessary, however. In fact, single-digit-percentage down payments are customary in about two dozen major cities, including Miami, Atlanta and Pittsburgh.
Down payment assistance programs are another key method to help first-time buyers afford a home. The Urban Institute identified more than 1,600 such programs across the country. Some programs provide publicly funded grant money with no strings attached, while others extend interest-free loans that are essentially second mortgages.
One notable option available nationwide is through the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America, a nonprofit housing group that runs a homebuying program boasting zero down payment and a discounted mortgage rate.
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From Walmart to the Nobel Prize, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh went long and deep in his quest to kick off massive reforms of the U.S. central bank’s operations — changes he and others, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have argued are long overdue.Fifteen outside experts including former central bankers, academics, business leaders and even a college pal of Warsh who made it big in tech venture capital are co-leading five Fed task forces. The focus: improvements and upgrades to support the Fed’s dual mandate of labor and inflation plus its balance sheet, communications and data with a spotlight on the role of artificial intelligence.“Each task force will carefully consider whether policymakers’ means and methods, analytical tools and policy approaches can be improved upon. I am honored that the best minds from a range of disciplines have agreed to work with us to sharpen our performance as an institution,’’ Warsh said in a July 9 statement.He announced the formation of the task forces following the July 17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, his first as chairman of the world’s largest central bank. He then set about personally recruiting the co-leads, who are not being compensated for their efforts. They will work with Fed staff to deliver recommendations by the end of the year to the FOMC.“The goal is straightforward: to ensure the Fed is best positioned to achieve our objectives in this consequential time,’’ Warsh said.Will AI lead the Fed to lower interest rates?Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, made AI a key speaking point of his campaign to take over as chair of the central bank.His arguments have been that use of AI will lead to massive improvements in the productivity of people and businesses that will allow for lower interest rates without higher inflation.“If we do our jobs, we’ll be here a year from now and we’ll say we’ve discovered data that helps us make better decisions,” Warsh said at a conference I covered on July 1. The Fed’s dual mandate from Congress requires maximum employment and stable prices.Lower interest rates support hiring but can fuel inflation. This risks fueling further inflation, potentially leading to an inflationary spiral.Higher rates cool prices but can weaken the job market. This increases the cost of borrowing and further stifles economic activity.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, left, is congratulated by President Donald Trump at his June swearing-in ceremony. Warsh named 15 global experts on July 9 to lead five task forces studying improvements and upgrades across the entire central bank. (Getty Images)Aaron Schwartz / Getty Images
Fed Communications Task Force Will review how the Fed conveyspolicy deliberations and decisions amid uncertainty.Peter R. Fisher, professor of practice, Foster School of Business, University of Washington. He is a former Treasury and New York Fed official. Arminio Fraga, founder and chairman of Gávea Investimentos and former president of the Central Bank of Brazil.Mervyn King, former governor, Bank of England. King ran the BOE for over a decade and led the U.K. central bank through the 2008-09 financial crisis.Fed Balance Sheet Policy Task ForceWill examine the costs, benefits, and institutional implications of the Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet.Karen Dynan, Harvard University economics professor who held top roles at the Treasury Department during the Obama administration. Raghuram Rajan, University of Chicago finance professor. He is a former governor of the Reserve Bank of India and is known for his early warnings ahead of the global financial crisis.Jeremy Stein, Harvard University economics professor and a former Fed governor.Fed Data Task ForceWill examine how to improve the quality and timeliness of real economic signals that inform the Fed’s policy judgments.Raj Chetty, Harvard University economics professor and a pioneer in the use of alternate and real-time data to analyze households and neighborhoods economic behavior. Doug McMillon, former Walmart Inc. president and CEO.Kevin Murphy, University of Chicago economics professor.Fed Productivity and Jobs Task ForceWill assess the economic impact of new general-purpose technologies, including artificial intelligence, to inform the Fed’s policy judgments.Famed tech investor Marc Andreessen, cofounder and general partner at Andreessen Horowitz. Andreessen is an outspoken supporter of the Trump 2.0 administration as well as a close friend of Warsh from their Stanford undergraduate days.Related: Fed Warsh era kicks off with big surprise no one saw comingCharles I. Jones, Stanford University economics professor currently on leave from Anthropic, the AI research and product company founded by former OpenAI executives.Asha Sharma, executive vice president and XBOX CEO at Microsoft Corp.Fed Inflation Frameworks Task ForceWill revisit how the Fed understands and responds to the drivers of inflation.Greg Mankiw, Harvard University economics professor and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the George W. Bush administration.William White, senior fellow, C.D. Howe Institute. He is a former economic adviser to the Bank for International Settlements.Thomas Sargent, New York University economics professor. He shared the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2011 for his work in macroeconomics and government policy.Fed task forces to face multiple challenges RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said the list of global economic and business experts will add experience to the task forces, though he cautioned they will face challenges, too. “It’s a very impressive list that’s been put forward by Chair Warsh that I’m confident will inform the discussion around the substantive topics,” Brusuelas told Bloomberg. “However, the Fed already has an army of Ph.D.s that had investigated these areas, so I’m not exactly convinced that this is going to shed much light into how we understand productivity and AI,” Brusuelas said. Related: Warsh’s AI task force could reshape Fed economic models
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