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You’ve probably heard the number by now. Roughly $175 billion in tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court on Feb. 20. Companies paid real money on goods that eventually made their way into your grocery store, your Amazon cart, and your local hardware aisle. So where’s the refund?That’s the question millions of Americans are asking, and the answer, at least right now, is complicated. The Trump administration this week outlined a four-step refund process in a court filing to the U.S. Court of International Trade.The system is being built, and it even has a timeline. But if you’re expecting a direct deposit anytime soon, you’ll need to pump the brakes.The government’s four-step refund plan, explainedIn a six-page filing submitted to the U.S. Court of International Trade this week, Brandon Lord, the executive director of U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s trade policy department, laid out exactly how the refund process will work. The system is called the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, or CAPE portal, Yahoo Finance reports.The four steps, according to the filing, are structured to electronically move claims from submission to payment. How the CAPE portal process worksStep 1: Claim submission. Companies file refund claims through a web-based portal.Step 2:Mass processing. CBP runs bulk verification of claims against import records.Step 3: Review of findings. The government reviews processed claims for accuracy before approval.Step 4: Electronic payment. Approved refunds are sent directly to the company’s designated bank account.Lord said the system’s components are between 40% and 80% complete, with performance testing set for the coming weeks. A separate government filing from last week indicated the portal could be operational within 45 days.How the Supreme Court forced the refund questionThis refund process exists because the Supreme Court gave the government no choice. On Feb. 20, 2026, the Court ruled 6–3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, said the law’s text simply could not support such a sweeping power, according to SCOTUSblog.The ruling invalidated tariffs in two major categories. First, the country-by-country reciprocal tariffs were announced on what Trump called “Liberation Day” in April 2025. Second, the 25% duties imposed on some goods from Canada, China, and Mexico.The court order that set the refund clock tickingSenior Judge Richard Eaton of the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade then issued an order requiring the government to refund all illegally collected tariffs. He also ruled that companies are entitled to interest on those payments, not just the principal.The Trump administration initially tried to delay the refund question for three months. The court rejected that approach. Now, the government is providing weekly updates on its progress in building the refund system.The staggering scale of what’s owedThe numbers behind this refund process are enormous. Economists at the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model estimate that IEEPA-based tariff collections total roughly $175 billion to $179 billion. The Ropes & Gray analysis noted that this figure exceeds the combined fiscal 2025 spending of the Department of Transportation and the Department of Justice.More than 1,000 businesses had already filed refund claims with the Court of International Trade before the Supreme Court ruling. That number has continued to grow. Companies, including Costco and Nintendo, have pursued legal action to recover what they paid.The fiscal problem this creates for WashingtonThe refund liability creates a genuine fiscal challenge. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the Republican tax bill, was built partly on the assumption that tariff revenue would help fund tax cuts over the next decade. Republican estimates put that revenue at over $2 trillion over the 2025–2034 period. With the IEEPA tariffs now struck down, that revenue is gone.Related: Trump hikes new tariffs to 15%Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has argued that a combination of tariffs under Sections 122, 232, and 301 will maintain tariff revenue levels in 2026. But legal challenges to those replacement tariffs are already underway. Twenty-four states filed a lawsuit in March 2026 challenging the Section 122 tariffs.Refunds go to importers first, not directly to youThis is the part that matters most if you’re reading this as a consumer, not a trade lawyer. The refunds from the CAPE portal go to importers of record. That means the companies that paid the border tariffs. Under existing regulations (19 C.F.R. § 24.36), refunds are paid to the entity that originally submitted the duties, not to the end consumer. That doesn’t mean consumers are completely shut out, but it does mean you’re at the end of a long chain.The Costco class-action lawsuit could change the equationA Costco customer this week proposed a nationwide class-action lawsuit in federal court in Illinois, arguing that the retailer should be required to return any tariff refunds directly to shoppers. That case could set a precedent on whether consumers have a legal claim to a refund of dollars that flow back to retailers and importers.Costco has already voluntarily promised to pass refunds along to members. CEO Ron Vachris said the company would find the best way to return the money, though specifics remain unclear. But a KPMG survey of 300 U.S. business leaders found that only 18% said they would fully reverse tariff-related price hikes. Another 34% said they’d partially roll back increases.What these tariffs have already cost your householdEven if the refund money never reaches you directly, it helps to understand what you’ve already been paying. The Tax Foundation estimates that Trump’s tariffs would amount to an average tax increase of $1,000 per U.S. household in 2025, rising to $1,300 in 2026 if the policies remained in place.Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that nearly 90% of tariff costs were borne by American firms and consumers, not foreign exporters. A study from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy put that figure even higher, at 96%. The tariffs hit lower-income households hardest. Yale’s Budget Lab found the burden on households in the lowest income bracket was more than three times that of the highest earners.Polling shows Americans want direct reliefNew polling from Groundwork Collaborative and Data for Progress found that about 80% of likely U.S. voters believe tariff refunds should be issued. The vast majority of respondents also said American consumers should receive some form of direct relief as part of the process.Right now, there is no mechanism for that. The CAPE portal is designed to process business-to-government refunds. Consumer relief, if it happens, would need to come through a different channel, whether that’s corporate price rollbacks, class-action settlements, or new legislation.New tariffs are already replacing the old onesEven as the refund process takes shape, the Trump administration is moving aggressively to rebuild its tariff framework using different legal authorities.On the same day the Supreme Court ruled, President Trump signed a proclamation imposing a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The next day, he raised it to 15%, the maximum allowed under that statute.Section 122 tariffs are limited to 150 days and would require congressional approval to continue beyond that period. They expire on July 24, 2026, unless extended. In most cases, the 15% rate is significantly lower than the IEEPA tariffs it replaced, particularly for goods from Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union.Section 301 investigations could bring tariffs back to IEEPA levelsOn March 11, the U.S. Trade Representative formally launched Section 301 investigations targeting more than a dozen countries. The countries include China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and several Southeast Asian nations, according to Holland & Knight’s analysis. These investigations could provide the legal basis for new tariffs that are neither time-limited nor capped at 15%.For you, this means the price relief from the Supreme Court ruling may be temporary. If Section 301 tariffs are imposed this summer at rates similar to the old IEEPA levels, the cost-of-living impact could return in full.What you can do while you waitYou can’t file a claim on the CAPE portal. That’s reserved for importers. But you’re not powerless. Here are steps to protect your household finances;Track prices on big purchases: If you’re planning to buy appliances, electronics, furniture, or a vehicle, compare current prices to pre-tariff levels. Some retailers may begin lowering prices as refunds flow back. Others won’t.Watch for class-action notifications: If you’re a Costco member or frequent shopper at major retailers, keep an eye out for class-action suit updates. Consumer-side lawsuits are still in early stages, but they could result in direct refunds or credits.Be cautious about timing large imports: If you run a small business that imports goods, the Section 122 tariffs remain in effect at 15% through July 24. Pricing and sourcing decisions should account for the possibility that Section 301 replacement tariffs could follow immediately.Check your 2025 tax refund: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s tax changes mean many filers are seeing larger refunds this spring. That’s separate from tariff refunds, but it’s money back in your pocket. Make sure you’ve filed and that your withholding is accurate for 2026.From what I observe, the government is building a system to return billions in illegally collected tariffs. But that money flows to businesses first. Whether any of it reaches you depends on lawsuits still being filed, corporate decisions still being made, and a political process that’s far from settled.

DON’T MISS THESE TAX DEDUCTIONS & CREDITS (6:57) Lots of changes were made to the tax law last year, and that can have an impact on your 2025 tax return, potentially putting extra money back into your pocket. Miguel Burgos, CPA and TurboTax expert, highlights some of the tax deductions and credits you could be missing, whether you’re low income, self-employed, own a home, earn tips and more. Watch the video above or read the full transcript below. Tax deductions and credits you don’t want to missVideo transcript: [MUSIC PLAYING]TRACY BYRNES: So the One Big Beautiful Bill has a lot of little cherries in there that you want to make sure you don’t miss. There’s deductions and credits that are really important to maximizing your refund, if indeed you’re getting one, and getting yourself the money that you deserve. Miguel Burgos, CPA, TurboTax expert is here with us right now to figure this all out.Look, admittedly, it’s confusing, right? And there’s a lot of stuff out there, but we don’t want people to miss what’s rightfully theirs. So what are some of the deductions and credits that people really need to pay attention to?MIGUEL BURGOS: Well, as we know, the Internal Revenue Code provides a little bit over 300 deductions and credits that can be claimed. So sometimes they can get a little bit overwhelming and we may miss some of those; but we don’t have to if we start with time, if we ask the proper questions, if we talk to an expert. And I’ll mention some of this, for example, EIC or an income credit.Also this year we also have itemized deductions. We have some changes in the itemized deductions. And we also have many changes in deductions for business owners that we want to talk about and make sure that they don’t get missed.TRACY BYRNES: Yeah. And these are three great ones. So, but this earned income tax credit I don’t know why it escapes people so much. If it’s complicated, I guess, there’s a lot of variables, I guess. But why do so many people miss it?MIGUEL BURGOS: So the IRS has been consistently publishing a statistic throughout the last few years. And it’s that one out of every five taxpayers that could potentially qualify for the credit is missing the credit. And there are multiple rules on the credit. We know that it varies based on the amount of income, the filing status, the age, the amount of dependents.But once again, it’s about starting early to file your taxes. Ask the proper questions. Talk to an expert and make sure that you gather all the data. For this year 2025, the maximum amount can be up to $8,046. So, given that you need multiple pieces of information, start as early as possible so you don’t miss out on the earned income credit if you do qualify for it.TRACY BYRNES: And this credit is mainly for low-income families—or lower-income families, I should say, who really could use the money. So more important now than ever, pay attention to this and again, take your time, start early as Miguel has said, to really see if you qualify and of course get as much of the credit as possible.TRACY BYRNES: The itemized deductions. Schedule A — this is very exciting this year, because in the past, or at least the past few years, many people were just getting the standard because they didn’t have enough credits to take an itemized deduction or to take you Schedule A, right? This year, though, things might be different.MIGUEL BURGOS: Well, yes, especially since the tax refund in 2017 where we we saw a significant increase in the standard deduction. We noticed a tendency to probably 90/10: 90% of the tax payers claiming the standard deduction, only about 10% of the tax payers claiming the itemized deduction. However, this year it may be a little bit different because we were seeing a significant increase on the state and local taxes itemized deductions. Up to last year, it had a maximum amount of $10,000 that was increased for 2025 to up to $40,000. So for taxpayers that live in states with high taxes, it is likely that they may be able to now claim up to $40,000 worth of state and local taxes, which include either the higher of of state income tax or sales tax in other state taxes, like, for example, property taxes.And then if they combine that with any medical expenses, donations, mortgage interest, and other itemized deductions, they’d be now in a better position to say, “Hey, my itemized deductions exceed my standard deduction,” and that may bring extra savings.Learn more: Deducting state and local property taxes (SALT): Limits, eligibility, and tax planning tipsTRACY BYRNES: Right, so all of you in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, California, pay attention because you probably will be beneficiaries of this. I love that, Miguel, because it also, I think, helps charities as well. There’s more incentive now for me to make charitable contributions because I’m going to get the deduction on my itemized Schedule A, so I think it’s a win-win for everyone.As a reminder to people, though, miscellaneous itemized deductions are long gone. Right? Those days are gone.MIGUEL BURGOS: Yeah, those were one of the one of the deductions that, ended in the tax reform in 2017 and perhaps some expected for them to be added back with what the tax law passed last summer. But that wasn’t the case. But however, we do have other deductions, other credits that still serve as an opportunity to maximize and boost a refund.TRACY BYRNES: Yeah, 100%, especially for our small business owners. And I love that we are out there trying to help them. So let’s talk about some of the things that business owners should be looking at when they sit down to do their returns this year.MIGUEL BURGOS: Yes, business owners have many opportunities and a few things that, that are a little bit different. And we want to make sure that they start early to file their taxes, and they understand these elements and make sure that they don’t miss out on them. I’ll give you a few examples: qualified business income deduction. That one was made permanent, this year. So, it could potentially help you to deduct up to 20% of your qualified business income for self-employed individuals.Also, we have also the, the 100% bonus depreciation for qualified property. So some of your assets, if they meet the criteria you may be able to deduct 100% of that expense in this current year. And another one that is very important is we have heard a lot about the No Tax on Tips Deduction.Which is true, applies for employees. But, it also has a provision that makes it applicable for self-employed individuals. So if a self-employed individual that works on a trade or business that typically gets tips, which nowadays is very normal with workers in the gig economy that that work as self-employed individuals. They could also claim the no tax on tips deductions with, with one, with an additional rule, which is basically the maximum amount is either $25,000 or their business’ net income.So they have to factor that in. But those are elements that are important to look into. Start early, ask questions, talk to an expert to make sure that you don’t miss on any of those deductions or credits as well.TRACY BYRNES: Yeah. So the qualified business income I think is really important. So bring that to the attention of your preparer or make sure if you’re using a software, you answer those questions appropriately. Same with the bonus depreciation in the past, right? I would have to amortize something over—could be 20 years—now I could potentially get it all this year. That’s a huge help to a lot of small business owners because these are great things. Miguel Burgos, CPA, TurboTax expert. Thank you so much for sharing all this.MIGUEL BURGOS: Oh, it’s always a pleasure. We are here to help you.[MUSIC PLAYING]Related: Read next:

Paul Conyngham is not a doctor. He has no background in biology or oncology. What he does have is 17 years of machine learning experience and a rescue dog named Rosie he was not willing to give up on.When conventional treatment failed to stop the aggressive mast cell cancer spreading through Rosie’s hind leg in 2024, Conyngham did what any data engineer would do. He opened ChatGPT and started asking questions.What followed became a world first. Working with researchers at two Australian universities, Conyngham designed a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine for Rosie using AI tools available to anyone. The tumor on her leg shrank by 75%. Scientists who helped make it happen say they were stunned.Pet dog Rosie’s cancer diagnosis left few optionsRosie is an eight-year-old Staffordshire Bull Terrier-Shar Pei cross Conyngham adopted from a Sydney shelter in 2019. In 2024, large tumors began appearing on one of her back legs.The diagnosis was mast cell cancer, the most common skin cancer in dogs. Vets gave her between one and six months to live. Conyngham spent tens of thousands of dollars on chemotherapy and multiple surgeries. The tumors slowed but refused to retreat.”No worries, I’m a data analyst and I’ll figure this out with the help of ChatGPT,” Conyngham told the U.K.’s International Business Times. And he meant it.How data engineer Conyngham used AI to map the cancerConyngham used ChatGPT as a research assistant, not a replacement for scientists. The chatbot pointed him toward genomic sequencing and suggested he contact the Ramaciotti Centre for Genomics at the University of New South Wales.He paid $3,000 AUD to have Rosie’s DNA sequenced, comparing her healthy cells to her tumor cells to pinpoint exactly where mutations had taken hold. He then ran that data through Google DeepMind’s AlphaFold, the protein structure prediction tool that won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2024, to model the three-dimensional shapes of the proteins produced by those mutations.More Medicare/MedicaidAARP raises a red flag on Social Security, MedicareIf your Medicare plan was canceled, do this nowAARP explains huge new Medicare change coming soonFrom those models, he identified the neoantigens most likely to trigger a meaningful immune response. Months of analysis were condensed into half a page of formulas.Associate Professor Martin Smith, director of the Ramaciotti Centre, watched the process with growing disbelief. “Paul was relentless,” Smith said, according to Türkiye Today. “He called and told me he had analyzed the data, found mutations of interest, used AlphaFold to find the mutated proteins, identified potential targets. I’m like, ‘Woah, that’s crazy!'”The mRNA cancer vaccine is a world firstProfessor Páll Thordarson, director of the UNSW RNA Institute, took Conyngham’s half-page formula and built the mRNA vaccine. It was the first personalized cancer vaccine ever made for a dog.Conyngham drove 10 hours to Gatton, Queensland, in December 2025 for Rosie’s first injection. He returned for a booster in January 2026. One week after the first shot, the tumor began visibly shrinking.By January, Rosie had regained enough energy to jump a fence at the dog park chasing a rabbit. In December, she had barely been able to move.What the AI tools each contributed to the vaccineChatGPT: Research planning, treatment strategy, and iterating on vaccine design throughout the process.AlphaFold: Modeled the 3D structures of proteins encoded by Rosie’s tumor mutations to identify viable targets.Custom machine learning: Conyngham’s own algorithms for neoantigen selection, identifying which mutated proteins would most likely trigger an immune response.UNSW RNA Institute: Professor Thordarson’s team synthesized the actual mRNA vaccine from Conyngham’s analysis.University of Queensland: Professor Rachel Allavena administered the vaccine under existing ethics approval for experimental canine treatments.

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Scientists are excited about dog cancer vaccine but urge caution”It was like holy crap, it worked,” Smith said. “It raises the question, if we can do this for a dog, why aren’t we rolling this out to all humans with cancer?”Thordarson was equally candid about what the case demonstrates. “What Rosie is teaching us is that personalized medicine can be very effective and done in a time-sensitive manner with mRNA technology,” he said, as Awesome Agents reported.But researchers are careful to note that this is one dog, one tumor, with no controlled trial. Mast cell tumors can sometimes shrink spontaneously. Human trials would require years of regulatory work and hundreds of millions of dollars in testing. Conyngham himself is clear-eyed about the limits.”I’m under no illusion that this is a cure,” he said. “But I do believe this treatment has bought Rosie significantly more time and quality of life.”The implications of mRNA vaccines for human cancer treatment are realCompanies including Moderna are already working on personalized mRNA cancer vaccines for humans. What Rosie’s case demonstrates is that the pipeline — sequence the tumor, model the mutations, design a targeted mRNA vaccine — can be compressed from years into months using AI tools that are freely available today.Thordarson believes the approach could be democratized in Australia without relying on foreign pharmaceutical companies. He also sees potential applications beyond cancer, including neurological diseases.Conyngham is already designing a second vaccine for a tumor that did not respond to the first treatment. He is also working with everyone involved to explore how other dog owners might access the same process.One rescue dog and a freely available chatbot may have just quietly changed what is possible in cancer medicine.Related: OpenAI plans major change on how you use ChatGPT

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