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I have watched a lot of winning calls fall apart the moment the stock pops.An analyst gets it right, the ticker doubles, and suddenly the temptation is to declare victory and move on before the trade breaks. That is not what Dan Niles did with Intel on Friday.Intel’s stock surged more than 22% on April 24, 2026, blowing past its previous record and posting one of its biggest one-day gains in over 50 years, according to The Wall Street Journal. The move came after the chipmaker reported first-quarter revenue of $13.58 billion, beating estimates of roughly $12.3 billion, and delivered optimistic guidance for the current quarter, as reported by Euronews.Niles, the founder and portfolio manager of Niles Investment Management, had already been riding the wave. He flagged Intel as a “new idea” back on March 29, 2026, when he wrote on X that “agentic AI” positioned Intel for upside, even though the stock had already climbed more than 50% by that point.Instead of cashing out or staying quiet, Niles went back on CNBC Friday afternoon and told viewers “there is more upside over the course of the year,” citing the structural shift toward CPUs in AI infrastructure and strong demand signals across the industry, according to CNBC’s coverage of his “Squawk on the Street” appearance.That is the kind of call you do not make unless you believe the story has changed, not just the price. And when I dug into what Niles was saying and what Intel actually reported, I started to see why he is doubling down instead of walking away.

The forecast behind Intel’s 100% surge has now been revised.Photo by JHVEPhoto on Getty Images

Intel’s turnaround finally showed up in the numbersFor years, Intel has been the cautionary tale of the chip industry.The company fumbled its AI strategy, hemorrhaged market share to Nvidia and AMD, and watched its stock collapse through much of 2024 and early 2025. Analysts piled on with downgrades, and investors left for greener pastures in semiconductors that actually mattered to the AI buildout.Related: Intel makes major fab decision amid uncertaintyThen something shifted in early 2026.Intel’s first-quarter earnings on April 23 showed revenue up 7.2% year over year to $13.58 billion, ending a string of quarters where the company struggled to grow its top line, according to Euronews.More importantly, Intel’s data center and AI segment posted revenue of $5.05 billion, a 22.4% increase from the prior year, driven by surging demand for central processing units that are now being recognized as critical to AI workloads.Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said on the earnings call that “the CPU is reasserting itself as the essential foundation of the AI era,” and emphasized that the shift is not just company spin but feedback from actual customers, according to CNBC’s earnings recap.That message resonated. Intel’s stock jumped more than 20% in after-hours trading following the report, then tacked on another few percentage points during Friday’s session to close the day up over 22%, its biggest one-day gain since 1987, The Wall Street Journal reported.The rally also lifted the entire chip sector. AMD rose roughly 14%, ARM climbed about 7.5%, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF added 4%, marking its 18th consecutive day of gains, according to reporting compiled by Evrim Ağacı.For investors who had written Intel off, this was more than a beat-and-raise quarter. It was evidence that the turnaround story might actually be real.What Niles saw that others missedDan Niles has a track record of calling inflection points in tech before the consensus catches up.He was early on Nvidia’s AI-driven rally in 2023, and his 2026 stock picks, which he published on LinkedIn and discussed on CNBC, leaned heavily into companies positioned for the next phase of AI infrastructure, including Cisco, Apple, Boeing, Nike, and Impinj.But his Intel call was different. It was not a consensus AI darling. It was a turnaround play that required believing CPUs would matter again in a world obsessed with GPUs.Niles wrote on X on March 29 that Intel’s prospects had improved because of “agentic AI,” a category of artificial intelligence where models take autonomous actions rather than just responding to prompts. That shift, he argued, would require more balanced compute infrastructure, including heavy CPU workloads that Intel is well positioned to serve.More Tech Stocks:Morgan Stanley sets jaw-dropping Micron price target after eventNvidia’s China chip problem isn’t what most investors thinkQuantum Computing makes $110 million move nobody saw comingWhen Intel reported on April 23, that thesis played out in the numbers. Demand for Intel’s CPUs exceeded supply, a dynamic that analysts at Bank of America flagged as likely to continue into 2026, according to TheStreet’s coverage of post-earnings analyst commentary.On April 24, Niles appeared on CNBC and said he expects “very strong CPU demand this year,” driven by the infrastructure needed to support autonomous AI applications. He also pointed out that Intel’s rally was not just hype. The company had posted real revenue growth, improved margins, and credible guidance, all of which gave him confidence that the stock had further to run.”Friday’s Intel rally is only the beginning,” Niles told CNBC, arguing that investors were only starting to reprice Intel’s potential in the AI era.That confidence matters when you are the guy who already nailed the first leg of the move.What Intel’s rally means for your portfolioIf you own a broad market index fund or a tech-heavy ETF, Intel’s surge on April 24 probably gave your returns a noticeable bump.Intel was the top performer in the S&P 500 on April 24, and the broader index climbed 0.8% to a new record close, helped in part by Intel’s weight and momentum, according to The Wall Street Journal. The chip rally also lifted Nvidia, which rose 4.3% to its first record close since October, as investors gained confidence that AI infrastructure spending remains strong across the board, according to the same report.For individual investors, the Intel story carries a few practical takeaways that go beyond one day’s pop:Turnaround stories can work, but timing matters. Niles caught Intel early in its 2026 run, not at the bottom in 2024. If you are looking at beaten-down names, the question is not just whether they can recover, but whether the catalyst is real and near-term.CPU demand is back, and that reshapes the AI trade. For years, the narrative has been all GPUs, all the time. Intel’s earnings and Niles’ comments suggest that the next phase of AI infrastructure will require a more balanced mix of chips, which opens opportunities beyond Nvidia and AMD.Endorsements from big players change the game. Intel received major validation in recent months, including a $5 billion equity investment from Nvidia, a $2 billion bet from SoftBank, and a 9.9% equity stake from the U.S. government through a Commerce Department deal. Those moves gave investors permission to believe again, and Niles was positioned to capture that shift.thestreetAt the same time, risks remain. Bank of America lowered its Intel price target to $40 after the January earnings report, citing margin pressure and slow yield improvements on Intel’s advanced 18A chip process, according to TheStreet. Even after Friday’s surge, not every analyst is convinced the turnaround is sustainable.But Niles clearly is. And when the analyst who called a 100% rally comes back on air to say there is more upside ahead, it is worth paying attention to why.What happens next for Intel?Intel’s surge was not just about one quarter or one analyst.It was about a broader realization that AI infrastructure is evolving beyond the GPU-centric model that dominated 2023 and 2024, and that companies like Intel, which were left for dead, might have a second act after all.Niles told CNBC in his April 7 appearance on “Closing Bell Overtime” that he expects chip stocks to “get stronger as the year progresses,” based on continued investment in AI hardware and the infrastructure needed to support autonomous, agentic applications.If he is right, the April 24 rally in Intel, AMD, ARM, and the broader semiconductor index is not the end of the move. It is the beginning of a rerating.For you as an investor, that does not mean you have to chase Intel at $82 or pile into chip stocks indiscriminately. It means you should be asking whether your portfolio reflects the next phase of the AI story, not just the last one.Because the analysts who get it right early, like Dan Niles, do not reset their forecasts for fun. They do it when the fundamentals have changed and the market has not fully caught up yet.And if Intel’s surge is any indication, the market is starting to notice.Related: Bank of America resets Intel stock price target after earnings

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Most people spend years building up three types of accounts to fund their retirement: a taxable brokerage account, a traditional IRA or 401(k), and a Roth IRA. What they don’t always consider is that the order in which they spend those accounts down can be just as important as how much they have saved.

Get the sequence wrong, and you could pay tens of thousands more in taxes over retirement than you needed to.

Tip: Use our Retirement Withdrawal Sequence Calculator to see how different strategies affect your taxes and how long your money lasts.

The Basic Sequence Most Advisors Recommend

The conventional approach goes like this:

Taxable brokerage accounts first

Traditional IRA and 401(k) accounts second

Roth IRA and Roth 401(k) accounts last

The logic behind each step is straightforward.

When you sell from a taxable brokerage account, you only owe tax on the gain, not the full amount you withdraw. And if you’ve held those investments for more than a year, that gain is taxed at the long-term capital gains rate — 0%, 15%, or 20% for most people — rather than ordinary income rates that can run much higher. Spending this money first also eliminates future taxable growth in the account, which reduces your ongoing tax drag.

Traditional IRA and 401(k) withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income, dollar-for-dollar. The money has been compounding tax-deferred, which is valuable — but the IRS is owed its share on every dollar that comes out. You want to let those accounts keep growing as long as possible, but not so long that required minimum distributions (RMDs) force large withdrawals later.

Roth accounts are last because they’re the most valuable money you have in retirement. Withdrawals are tax-free. Growth is tax-free. And Roth IRAs have no required minimum distributions during your lifetime. Every year you leave a Roth account untouched, it compounds without any future tax consequence. Spending it early permanently gives up that advantage.

The RMD Problem

Here’s where the sequencing becomes really important. Once you turn 73, the IRS requires you to take minimum distributions from your traditional accounts, whether you need the money or not. Those distributions are taxed as ordinary income.

If you’ve left a large traditional IRA untouched for years while drawing down other accounts, RMDs can push you into a higher tax bracket, increase the portion of your Social Security benefits that’s taxable, and trigger higher Medicare premiums through IRMAA surcharges.

The conventional sequence helps prevent this by drawing down the traditional account gradually through retirement rather than letting it balloon unchecked.

When the Conventional Sequence Isn’t Optimal

Many financial planners now suggest a more flexible approach: in the early years of retirement, before Social Security kicks in and before RMDs begin, consider intentionally pulling some money from your traditional accounts, even if you don’t need to, and converting some of it to a Roth. This is called a Roth conversion strategy.

The idea is to “fill up” a lower tax bracket in years when your income is relatively low. Paying 22% in tax now to move money into a Roth can be a better deal than paying that same rate (or higher) later when RMDs stack on top of Social Security income.

The right answer depends on your specific balances, tax situation, state of residence, and Social Security timing. There’s no universal sequence that works for everyone.

This Matters Before You Retire, Too

The withdrawal sequence only gives you flexibility if you actually have money spread across all three account types. If everything you’ve saved is in a traditional 401(k), every dollar you pull in retirement gets taxed as ordinary income — you don’t have options.

If you’re still working, it’s worth looking at your current mix. Are you building toward having something in each bucket — taxable, traditional, and Roth? That might mean directing some contributions to a Roth 401(k) or Roth IRA instead of pre-tax accounts, especially if you expect to be in a similar tax bracket in retirement. It might also mean doing small Roth conversions in lower-income years before you stop working.

You don’t need a perfect three-way split. You just need enough in each bucket to have choices later.

Run the Numbers for Your Situation

The difference between strategies isn’t theoretical. Depending on your account balances and tax rates, the gap in total lifetime taxes between the best and worst withdrawal sequence can reach six figures.

Use our Retirement Withdrawal Sequence Calculator to compare all four strategies side by side and see a year-by-year projection of your balances and taxes.
The post The Order You Withdraw Retirement Money Matters More Than You Think appeared first on Clark Howard.

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