SUCCESS

The riskiest moment for any new technology is not the prototype. It is the morning somebody takes away the backup.

For roughly 60 years, the American car has been engineered around a single assumption, that a person can always take over.

Federal safety rules are built on it. Airbags assume a driver. Mirrors assume a driver. The brake pedal assumes a driver.

Automakers have layered software on top of that assumption for a decade now, and even the most aggressive driver-assistance systems keep a steering wheel within arm’s reach. That wheel is the apology engineered into the product, the quiet admission that the software might be wrong and a human will need to fix it.

Tesla (TSLA) has spent the better part of a decade arguing that the apology is unnecessary, that cameras and neural networks will eventually be good enough that the wheel becomes dead weight. Investors have priced that argument in. Regulators have mostly stepped aside for it.

This week, the company finally picked the date it stops arguing and starts proving.

Tesla began sending out invitations to a Cybercab launch event in Austin, Texas, on Sept. 3, according to Teslarati. Attendees are being asked to come “experience the future of full autonomy,” and each guest can bring one person, though not a content creator.

Tesla’s pedal-free robotaxi debuts September 3, testing Musk’s autonomy promises against TSLA’s valuation.Bloomberg / Getty Images

Why the Cybercab is different from every Tesla robotaxi so far

Tesla has been running a driverless ride-hailing service in Austin since June 2025, and it has expanded that service to Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando and Tampa. Every one of those rides has happened in a Model Y.

That matters more than it sounds. A Model Y running Full Self-Driving still has a steering wheel, pedals and mirrors. If the software gets confused, the hardware for a human rescue is physically present in the car.

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The Cybercab has none of it. Two seats, a screen, no wheel, no pedals. Tesla has been producing them at Gigafactory Texas since February and confirmed continuous production on its first-quarter call, reported Electrek.

The company has been building a car for six months that it has not been able to put a public passenger in. Sept. 3 is the day that changes.

The regulatory gap Tesla is launching into

Here is the part that got my attention when I mapped Tesla’s launch sequence against its competitors.

Texas lets autonomous vehicles operating at SAE Level 4 or higher skip the steering wheel and pedals under a self-certification model. That is why Austin works. But Tesla has not secured the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards Part 555 exemption that would let it charge passengers commercially at scale or expand freely beyond Texas, reported Automotive World.

Amazon’s Zoox took the other road. It applied for and received a federal exemption covering up to 5,000 steering-wheel-free vehicles over two years, clearing it to convert a demo fleet into a paid commercial service, according to Axios.

Related: Tesla Robotaxi takes a big step toward Elon Musk’s ultimate vision

Tesla’s position is that it does not need the exemption, because it designed the Cybercab to self-certify against every existing federal standard. That theory has never been tested by an incident.

The regulator has been moving in Tesla’s direction, and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has been streamlining exemptions and drafting the first federal performance standards for automated vehicles. But drafting is not finished, and a rule that does not exist yet cannot protect anybody.

Musk understands the exposure better than his critics assume. “If we injure even one person, it’ll be worldwide headline news, and regulators will immediately clamp down on our activities,” he said on the second-quarter earnings call, according to Yahoo Finance.

Where the driverless race actually stands right now:

Waymo delivers roughly 500,000 paid robotaxi rides a week across 10 U.S. cities, according to TechCrunch.

Tesla runs about 50 robotaxis in Austin, a city of more than 1 million people, based on TheStreet’s reporting on Austin wait times.

Clark County, Nevada, cleared Tesla to operate up to 5,000 driverless vehicles in its first year there, reported The Motley Fool.

Zoox holds federal clearance to charge passengers commercially, which Tesla does not, according to Axios.

What a launch this size means for your portfolio

Tesla is one of the 10 largest companies in the S&P 500. If you own a target-date fund, an S&P 500 index fund or most any large-cap blend product in your 401(k), you own Tesla whether you chose it or not.

That is why my analysis keeps coming back to the multiple rather than the vehicle. Tesla trades near 292 times earnings, and Wall Street holds a consensus Hold rating with an average price target around $385, according to TipRanks. Shares closed Friday at $362.86 after jumping 5.1% on the Nevada approval.

A 292 multiple is not a price. It is a promise.

Tesla’s second-quarter operating income came in at $398 million, which is not a number that supports a $1.2 trillion company on its own. The gap between those two figures is autonomy, and it is being carried entirely by expectation.

That works right up until it doesn’t. Musk already told investors robotaxi “likely will not see material revenue until at least 2027.” So the near-term case for the stock is not cash. It is the absence of a disaster.

The asymmetry here is worth sitting with. A flawless Sept. 3 event probably moves Tesla shares a few percent, because a successful launch is roughly what the current multiple already assumes. A single serious injury involving a car with no steering wheel moves them a great deal more, in the other direction, and it does so on a timeline set by regulators rather than by Tesla.

Shares are already down about 25% this year and sit well below the $498.83 record close set in December, so the market is not exactly pricing in perfection. It is pricing in something closer to eventual inevitability.

What to actually watch on Sept. 3

Ignore the reveal. The Cybercab has been photographed, spec-sheeted and driven on a closed lot at Warner Bros. Studios back in October 2024. Nothing about the car itself will be news.

Watch three things instead. Whether the Cybercabs carry non-employee passengers on public Austin streets rather than a controlled loop. Whether Tesla names a service area and a fleet size. And whether anyone from Tesla addresses the federal exemption question directly.

A launch event that shows a car is a demo. A launch event that puts strangers in a vehicle with no steering wheel, on public roads, under a legal theory Tesla wrote itself, is something else.

The company has spent six months building inventory for this moment. Austin finds out on Sept. 3 whether the software was ever the point, or whether the real bet was that nothing goes wrong before the rules catch up.

Related: Tesla, Toyota expose surprising auto industry truth

To the world’s aviation geeks, there is no need for plunge pools or sheets with a thread count in the thousands — the true dream is being able to sleep in a plane even when not going anywhere.

Some of the world’s best-known aviation-themed hotels include the TWA Hotel at New York’s JFK, which was constructed on the site of the former Trans World Airlines terminal and now gives guests both runway views and a vibe of early Jet Age era glamour, and the Hotel Costa Verde in Costa Rica’s Manuel Antonio National Park.

In the latter’s case, the fuselage of a decommissioned Boeing 727 plane from 1965 is both the centerpiece and most luxurious suite of a resort otherwise built in a jungle oasis overlooking the Pacific Ocean.

The small list of hotels in which guests can literally sleep in an old plane just got bigger with the addition of the 1975 Avenue & Hotel in Johor Bahru, the third-largest city in Malaysia just outside the border with Singapore.

1975 Avenue & Hotel is the world’s latest aviation hotel

Located approximately 20 minutes away from the city’s Senai International AIirport (JHB), two retired Boeing 747 planes once used by Pan Am and Japan Airlines in the 1970s and 1980s have been sitting on an empty lot for many years as part of a display.

A local Malaysian logistics and warehousing group undertook an ambitious project to turn them into the wing of a new 38-room hotel and, this month, the 1975 Avenue & Hotel started welcoming guests as part of a soft opening.

Related: Which island in The Bahamas is the best

The two planes contain 18 suites with themes designed around countries including Malaysia, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, China and England among others; the rest of the property is a wing featuring regular hotel-style rooms and amenities that include a rooftop swimming pool, sunken jacuzzi, man-made beach pool and kids’ water park over which the two Boeings loom.

The new resort also includes a children’s water park built around the two Boeing 747s.1975 Avenue & Hotel

A little history of the planes that are now luxury hotel suites

The suites can already be booked at a price starting at 1,706 Malaysian Ringgit ($362 USD) per night and are designed to lean into the architecture of the planes; a cockpit lounge area with the original flight instruments recreated and two floors on which one can find a king’s size bed, a bathroom and separate area with a kitchen.

“Inspired by the original structure of the aircraft, each suite reflects the spirit of a destination: from elegant European flair to the warmth of Southeast Asia,” the property writes in describing the suites inside the former aircraft.

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The planes, meanwhile, are nicknamed Bove and Bey. Bove is a 747SR-146B built for Japan Airlines by 1980 and after aging out of service stored at JHB Airport until 2019. Bey, meanwhile, is a 747-121 that was built in 1970 for Pan Am and flew briefly for American Airlines before being converted into a freighter operated for Tower Air and Logistic Air in 1992.

While avgeeks will be the ones to specifically seek out the property, 1975 Avenue & Hotel is also strategically positioned for those transiting through Johor Bahru overnight as well as those coming in to Johor Premium Outlets or Legoland Malaysia.

Related: Why luxury hotels are betting big on Scotland travel

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Why we love this deal

Now that a new season will be here before you know it, you’re probably already thinking about cleaning your home and revamping your wardrobe. What better way to bridge the gap than by getting your home as neat and organized as possible? One of the best ways to start the process is by making the most of dresser drawers throughout the house. Thanks to Walmart, you can add more drawers to the mix with one of its most affordable mini dressers, which is available for an even better price than usual.

The Concetta 2-Drawer Mini Dresser is on sale for just $26 during a Flash deal. You don’t have to spend like royalty to have an organized home, and this dresser is the perfect example of that rule.

Concetta 2-Drawer Mini Dresser, $26 (was $38) at Walmart

Courtesy of Walmart

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Why do shoppers love it?

This little dresser is so convenient, in part, because it has so many potential uses. While it’s perfect for standard clothing storage in your bedroom closet or corner, it’s able to do so much more. The small size and neutral design of this piece lend it to use almost anywhere in the home. It can be an entryway table, a living room end table next to the sofa, or even as a bedside nightstand. With that in mind, this versatile little piece of furniture can be purchased in a two-pack as well because it works so wonderfully as part of a set.

The frame is made from lightweight and durable powder-coated stainless steel. That construction means that the dresser’s skeleton is rustproof and corrosion-resistant. Longevity is key when it comes to everyday-use furniture like this, so the steel frame design is a big plus. What’s more, the fabric-sided drawers are also relatively lightweight, making the entire unit easy to move around as needed. The drawers have a triple-layer design with an MDF panel in the center, giving them a soft feel on the outside but a rigid structure. This also makes them easy to open and close.

The dresser also has an attractive and sturdy manufactured wood tabletop. It’s waterproof and easy to clean with any solvent-based cleaner. Each of the four legs has an adjustable foot, making it easy to keep an even keel, even on an imperfect flooring surface. The overall dimensions of the dresser are 18 inches long by 11.8 inches wide by 20 inches high, which is why it’s perfectly portable and pleasantly practical. It’s also available in seven beautiful color variants.

Related: Amazon is selling a $28 mini-dresser for home organization

Details to know

Dimensions: 18 inches long by 11.8 inches wide by 20 inches high.

Materials: Powder-coated stainless steel, MDF, fabric, and engineered wood.

Color variants: Seven colors.

Countertop: Woodgrain engineered wood.

Walmart shoppers were very pleased with this diminutive piece. One claimed, “It’s perfect,” before adding, “It’s big enough to hold lots of socks and small items. It looks like wood, it’s cute, and super easy to put together…These are great for small spaces.”

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Accver Lightweight 9-Drawer Dresser, $39 at Walmart

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If you’re ready to pump up your home organization, then the Concetta 2-Drawer Mini Dresser is exactly what you need. The fact that you can currently get it for just $26 is your sign that today is the day to add one to your home.

Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia ultimately never realized the full strategic potential Moscow not long ago envisaged for them. Now they never will.

A large amount of Canadian imports will now be subject to 50% tariffs.

Social Security checks rarely stretch as far as retirees hope.

Even with a solid cost-of-living adjustment on the way for 2027, Medicare premiums and inflation tend to eat into the raise before it ever reaches a bank account.

That is why many financial firms point retirees toward dividend stocks as a way to build a second income stream.

Charles Schwab put it plainly in its investor education materials, noting that for retirees, regular payouts from dividend stocks can provide a recurring and steady stream of income.

Two companies stand out right now for income-focused investors: grocery giant Albertsons and pipeline operator Plains All American. 

Both pay quarterly dividends, and both gave investors fresh updates on their payouts during recent earnings calls.

Social security benefits may not be enough

How much someone collects from Social Security depends heavily on the age they claim benefits. 

According to Social Security Administration data, the average monthly benefit ranges from $1,424 at age 62 up to $2,275 at age 70.

That is a difference of more than $850 a month, or over $10,000 a year, based on the starting age. 

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Retirees who claim Social Security earlier may need extra cash later for medical bills, home repairs, and travel.

An additional passive income source can close this gap, making investing in dividend stocks a top strategy for retirees. 

A retiree who owns shares that pay quarterly cash dividends can supplement whatever Social Security check they receive each month, without needing to sell shares or tap into their savings.

Albertsons has grown its dividend

Albertsons (ACI) operates more than 2,200 stores under names like Safeway, Vons and Jewel Osco.

The company has raised its dividend from an annualized $0.40 per share at its 2020 IPO to $0.68 per share today, a 10% annual growth rate since going public.

That puts the stock’s dividend yield around 5.5%, based on recent trading levels near $12.4 a share.

On its July 23 earnings call: 

CEO Susan Morris outlined a restructuring plan called the ACI Edge, which moves the company from 11 divisions to four regions and centralizes buying decisions. 

Management expects the plan to generate about $200 million in incremental annual savings, with most of the benefit landing in fiscal 2027.

Albertsons also returned more than $300 million to shareholders in the first quarter, including $84 million in dividends and $225 million in share buybacks. 

CFO Sharon McCollam, who announced her retirement on the call, said the company ended the quarter with a net debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio of 2.3 times, which she described as giving the business ample financial flexibility.

Related: Longtime grocery chain exits entire market after 49 years

The company trimmed its full-year outlook, citing softer grocery unit trends and pressure from lower-income shoppers. 

Adjusted earnings per share are now expected between $1.75 and $1.85 for fiscal 2026, down from earlier targets.

Sharon McCollam stated:

“Our more cautious view reflects ongoing pressure on lower-income consumers, softness in grocery industry unit trends and the potential for additional affordability pressure from supplier cost increases.”

Plains All American offers a high-yield dividend

Plains All American (PAA) runs one of the largest crude oil pipeline networks in North America, with a heavy footprint in the Permian Basin. 

Its quarterly distribution recently rose to $0.4175 per unit, or $1.67 annualized, putting the yield near 6.8% at current prices around $24. The annual dividend has more than doubled from $0.72 per share in 2021. 

CEO Willie Chiang told investors on the August 7 call that the company is on track to hit its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.88 billion, plus or minus $75 million. 

Plains also closed the sale of its Canadian NGL business in May, which helped bring leverage down to 3.3 times.

The company raised its 2026 growth spending to a range of $400 million to $450 million, funding projects like an expanded Permian gathering system and a capacity boost to its Cactus III pipeline. 

Management expects roughly $1.75 billion in free cash flow this year and plans to keep growing the distribution by $0.15 per unit annually.

Chiang also pointed to record crude exports out of the Gulf Coast during the quarter, along with rising Permian production forecasts, as reasons for optimism heading into 2027.

Investing in dividend stocks is not risk-freeBloomberg/Getty Images

What to know before you invest in dividend stocks

Neither stock is risk free. 

Albertsons faces a softer grocery unit environment and rising competition from Walmart and Amazon, and it is still absorbing pressure from the Inflation Reduction Act’s impact on pharmacy sales. 

Plains All American carries commodity price exposure tied to oil markets, which can swing sharply based on global events.

Moreover, dividend payouts are not guaranteed and could be rolled back or suspended if financials take a nosedive.

Notably, PAA was forced to lower its annual dividend from $2.80 per share in 2016 to $1.20 in 2019 and $0.72 in 2020. 

Still, both companies have shown a clear commitment to paying and raising cash to shareholders, even while investing in their businesses. 

A 6% yield on a $100,000 investment can help you generate $6,000 in annual dividends, which translates to $500 each month or $1,500 per quarter. 

For a retiree trying to close the gap between a Social Security check and monthly expenses, that combination of income and growth potential is worth a closer look.

As always, dividend income should complement a diversified retirement plan rather than replace it, and anyone considering these stocks should weigh their own risk tolerance and consult a financial advisor before investing.

Related: Iconic bank stock pays Buffett’s Berkshire $619M in annual dividends

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Why we love this deal

Regardless of the weather, cozying up in a soft bedding set is the perfect way to end the day. But as the seasons change, your bedding should too. While warmer months call for light and breathable options and colder months require bundling up, bedding with an all-season design can be used all year long, give or take a few extra layers. 

We spotted a comforter set that’s not just perfect for year-round use, but will also look good regardless of how you style it. The Zzlpp 7-Piece Comforter Set has a luxurious seersucker design, and it’s on sale for as low as $34. The striking Olive Green and Dark Grey color options offers the best deals, but prices vary up to $48. With seven pieces, it comes with all the bedding essentials you need to give your bed an upgrade.

Zzlpp 7-Piece Comforter Set, From $34 (was $48) at Amazon

Courtesy of Amazon

Shop at Amazon

This comforter set comes with a queen-size comforter, two pillow shams, two pillow cases, a flat sheet, and a fitted sheet. It’s like getting a comforter set and a sheet set combined, as many options around the same price are either three-piece or four-piece sets. The fitted sheet has an elastic pocket that can fit a mattress up to 14 inches deep, so it can accommodate most standard mattresses.

The comforter and shams feature a stunning seersucker design, adding texture and style to your bedroom. It looks like a luxury find, but it only costs $36. Each piece is made of microfiber, giving it a soft and breathable feel that will keep you cozy all year long. 

Available in 18 colors, there’s something for everyone. The Olive Green color gets a lot of praise from shoppers who say it looks elegant. The neutral hues, like beige and white, can fit in with any space, while colors such as light purple and Burnt Orange can add a vibrant pop of color to a room. 

Related: Amazon has a highly rated 7-piece comforter set that comes in 25 colors for just $32

“This set is actually so soft and so cozy. It seems kinda thick, but it’s perfectly breathable and warm too,” a shopper said, adding that the color is “unmatched” and looks “very elegant.”

Another reviewer said one of their favorite details was the textured seersucker design. “It adds a subtle, stylish look that makes the bedding feel more high-end than its price suggests,” they said. The customer also mentioned that the fitted sheet is secure and doesn’t slip or bunch after movement during the night.

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On sale for as low as $34, the Zzlpp 7-Piece Comforter Set is a soft, stylish, and practical all-in-one bedding set with excellent value for the price.

Stray Kids collect a ninth No. 1 on the Billboard 200 as ‘This & That’ debuts. The K-pop titans are now tied with The Rolling Stones for the second-most leaders among groups.

Nvidia will report its second-quarter (Q2) earnings for the fiscal year 2027 on August 26, and expectations are high. As we await earnings, we need to consider two important things about the stock.

The first thing is that the stock dropped on the day following earnings in each of the last four quarters, despite strong results. It is starting to look like a pattern.

The second thing is that, according to MarketBeat, 52 of the 54 analysts covering Nvidia stock rate it a buy. Two give a hold rating. The average price target is $308.01.

Nvidia closed at $214.72 on August 21, implying a compelling 43.45% upside.

Given that the stock often drops despite strong earnings and that analyst consensus is a buy with significant upside, the question naturally arises: buy before earnings, or wait until after earnings and buy on the dip the next day?

That is a tough question to answer. In a research note shared with me, Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider and his team outlined their views on what might happen and what to watch for.

Goldman Sachs expects a solid Q2 for Nvidia with meaningful upside to guidance

Schneider expects “a solid quarter with meaningful upside to guidance supported by tight GPU supply/demand trends.”

The caveat here is that, as the stock soared in August, this might already be priced in. He noted this by saying that the bar for the stock is elevated, given its more than 12% move in two weeks.

He reiterated a buy rating for Nvidia and a price target of $285, based on a 30x multiple.

The analysts noted that their EPS estimates for Q2 and Q3 are 6% and 12% above the Wall Street consensus.

So, despite the above-consensus EPS estimates, Goldman Sachs’s price target is slightly below the average, but still implies a big upside of 32.73%.

Schneider’s team believes that Nvidia stock trades at a steep discount to what they view as fair value. The analysts added that the stock could continue to re-rate, and three factors could help.

They need to see improving profitability metrics at hyperscalers, which would support sustained spending growth.

Nvidia needs to demonstrate measured capital outlays in support of customer financing platforms. This would ease fears about vendor/circular financing.

The company also needs to reiterate its commitment to strong buybacks and dividends.

The team said they will look for five things during the Nvidia earnings call that could move the stock:

Details on the customer financing platform and its impact on capital allocation

Details of the Vera Rubin AI platform rollout, or Rubin ramp, in the second half of 2026

Gross margin trends and input costs

CPU demand driven by Agentic AI

Competitive trends

Goldman Sachs expects a solid Q2 for Nvidia with meaningful upside to guidance.Shutterstock

The twist is that Nvidia GPU demand creates stock risk

The insatiable demand for Nvidia GPUs is a double-edged sword, as Nvidia is facing supply constraints.

This is making it more difficult for Nvidia to beat and raise every quarter. Additionally, while hyperscalers keep raising their capital expenditure plans, it is not certain they will do so midyear, which is not good for the next two quarters.

For Nvidia to soar after earnings, it would need to drop something material, beyond a standard beat-and-raise.

Nvidia significantly increased dividends in its previous earnings report, but that didn’t prevent the next-day drop, even as Bank of America raised its price target.

Another part of the twist is that the huge demand driving GPU prices higher and higher, as well as other components of the AI boom, is putting too much pressure on some of Nvidia’s customers’ financials. With very significant customers having trouble financing their insatiable demand, fears of vendor financing are growing, and Nvidia’s commitments are not helping ease them.

Related: Michael Burry says Nvidia rival is quietly getting serious 

On August 17, Nvidia agreed to provide a guarantee of up to $105 billion to help OpenAI lease a data center in Ohio that is being developed by SoftBank-owned SB Energy, Reuters reported. Nvidia said it will guarantee a portion of the lease and power payments and commit to ensuring the site retains a minimum value.  

On August 10, Nvidia teamed up with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to create AI Compute Infrastructure Financing Platforms. The idea behind this project is to mobilize over $500 Billion of third-party capital.

This platform is the one Goldman Sachs wants addressed on the earnings call.

So, if we read a little between the lines, the twist is that while Goldman Sachs sees Nvidia hitting $285 in the next 12 months and forecasts a beat-and-raise, Nvidia is more likely to dip the day after than to soar, unless it drops a big piece of news.

A fairly similar sentiment is shared by Morgan Stanley analysts.

So what should you do as an investor? A long-term investor will likely see meaningful upside and buy it now. A more tactical trader will wait to buy on the dip.

Analysts noted downside risks for Nvidia stock:

Hyperscalers could slow down their AI infrastructure spending.

Nvidia could lose market share due to increased competition.

Nvidia could suffer erosion of its profit margins due to increased competition.

Supply constraints

Related: Bank of America’s latest Nvidia alert is a must-read for worried investors

Every industry eventually produces an executive willing to say the thing out loud. The old rules do not apply anymore. The machine has changed.

Sometimes that turns out to be true. Often it marks the top.

Memory chips are the purest cycle left in modern manufacturing. Demand climbs, prices follow, every producer races to add capacity, and the capacity lands about two years later, all at once, into a market that no longer needs it. Prices break. Profits vanish. Whoever is still standing cuts spending and waits.

Micron Technology (MU) has run that loop since 1978, and it has the receipts. In fiscal 2022, the company earned $8.7 billion. In fiscal 2023, it lost $5.83 billion as revenue nearly halved to $15.5 billion, according to Micron’s annual filings.

That is three years ago, not three decades.

Which is what makes this week worth sitting with. Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra is now arguing, with $10 billion behind the argument, that the loop has been cut for good.

“So, the value of memory, that equation has totally changed,” Mehrotra told CNBC on Aug. 20, speaking from a fab construction site outside Boise, Idaho.

Micron unveiled a Boise research institution, planning $10 billion investment over the next decade.Witthaya Prasongsin / Getty Images

What Micron is actually buying with $10 billion

The thing Micron announced is not a factory. It is a research institution.

The company unveiled Micron Research Labs on Aug. 20, headquartered in Boise and backed by a planned $10 billion investment over the next decade, according to Micron. Ground breaks in calendar 2027. The work covers memory technologies, compute architectures, packaging and future semiconductor manufacturing, and the stated horizon stretches past 10 years.

Related: SanDisk sends strong signal to Micron investors, BofA says

That is the kind of spending “that sits upstream of every product we build,” said Scott DeBoer, Micron’s chief technology and products officer.

It sits on top of the more than $250 billion Micron has separately committed to U.S. manufacturing and research through 2035, according to the company.

None of it ships a chip this decade. That is the entire point, and it is also the problem.

Why the memory cycle has always come back

The cycle is not a failure of nerve. It is arithmetic, and the arithmetic has not changed.

A fab takes three to four years from concrete to wafers. Demand signals move in quarters. By the time the supply answer arrives, the question has changed. Every memory boom in the past 40 years has ended the same way, and none of them ended because producers were stupid. They ended because the lag is structural.

Wall Street has not forgotten. Micron is a business where the DRAM and NAND markets are “highly cyclical,” according to Morningstar, whose analysts still decline to award the company an economic moat despite its scale.

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Mehrotra’s counterargument is that AI changed the buyer, and that the change is structural. Memory now gets designed alongside the processor it will sit next to, which pulls Micron into a customer’s roadmap years ahead of the order. Data center customers currently want about 50% more supply than Micron can commit to, he told CNBC.

He is not alone in that read. Jim Cramer argued that AI has rewritten the rules for memory stocks and that Micron can double from here, TheStreet reported. Bank of America has made a version of the same case, pointing to the industry’s shift toward multi-year supply agreements as a reason this upcycle should behave differently, which was also highlighted by TheStreet. 

The bank was careful about the wording, though. Those contracts do not prevent a downturn. They shape how one arrives.

Micron has been converting that thesis into paper. The company disclosed 16 five-year strategic customer agreements alongside its June earnings report, and Mehrotra said more have been signed since.

Those contracts, not the research campus, are the actual cycle-proofing. The lab is the flag planted on top of them.

The numbers Micron does not put in a press release

When I lined up Micron’s fiscal 2023 filings against this week’s announcement, the same tension showed up in both directions.

Here is the last full turn of the wheel, and where the company sits now.

Fiscal 2022 net income of $8.7 billion, one of the best years in company history, according to Micron’s annual results.

Fiscal 2023 net loss of $5.83 billion on revenue of $15.5 billion, down from $30.8 billion, according to Micron’s annual results.

Fiscal 2023 gross margin of negative 7.3%, meaning chips sold below the cost of making them, according to FactSet data cited by CNBC.

Capital spending cut to $7.7 billion in fiscal 2023 from $12.1 billion the prior year, according to CNBC.

Trailing 12-month net income of roughly $50.5 billion as of mid-August 2026, according to The Motley Fool.

The fourth bullet is the one that matters for a research lab. Micron kept investing through the last downturn, but the CEO has said plainly that the spending got cut back hard from the year before. When margins went negative, the company had no choice.

Mehrotra made a related point on CNBC in June, arguing that years of customers squeezing on price left the whole industry underinvested right as AI demand arrived. That is a candid admission, and it cuts both ways. If price pressure once dictated Micron’s research budget, price pressure can dictate it again.

What would actually prove the cycle is broken

My read is that the $10 billion figure is the least interesting number in this story.

A decade-long research commitment announced during the best quarter in company history costs Micron almost nothing today. It is funded out of a trailing net income figure that dwarfs the entire pledge. The test is not whether Micron writes the check now. It is whether Micron writes it in the fiscal year DRAM prices roll over and gross margin goes red again.

That test is not hypothetical, and it is not far off. Micron shares closed at $974.33 on Aug. 20, up about 4%, and still sit roughly 22% below the record close they set in late June, according to market data. The market has already started pricing cycle risk into a stock whose CEO says the cycle is over.

Investors got a preview in June, when Micron gave back weeks of gains in two sessions on nothing more than a broad chip selloff. Nothing about the demand story changed those two days. The stock moved anyway, which tells you what the market still believes underneath the narrative.

For anyone outside the trade, the stakes are more immediate than a chart. Memory scarcity has been pushing up prices on phones, laptops and consumer electronics, a squeeze Mehrotra himself traced back to industry underinvestment. The same shortage that made Micron one of the best-performing AI trades of 2026 is showing up on your next hardware invoice.

Watch the next earnings report for the first tell. Micron’s fiscal fourth-quarter results are due in late September, according to market data, and the line I would go to first is not revenue. It is research and development expense, and whether management is willing to put a floor under it in writing.

Cycles do not die because an executive announces they have. They die when a company keeps spending through the year that would normally force it to stop.

Related: Micron CEO gives investors $10 billion reason to listen