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The 41-year-old legend has been linked to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors, Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat, among others.

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More than 80% of Americans worry about running out of money in retirement: “It really keeps them up at night.”

GE Aerospace’s stock falls after earnings, again, with recently rapid order-book growth slowing.

Though the stock market has been dilly-dallying, as the British would say, UBS is sticking to its bullish outlook for the S&P 500. Though not a price-target reset, the bank’s latest message sharpens the debate over what must happen next for stocks to continue climbing.Earlier gains were driven mainly by enthusiasm, expanding valuations, and confidence in AI, but the next phase is likely to be less forgiving.Investors are now in ‘show-me’ mode, where strong expectations leave little room for earnings misses, weaker guidance, or signs that corporate spending is losing momentum.UBS remains constructive, but the forecast depends heavily on companies delivering results rather than investors simply paying more for future growth.

UBS maintains its bullish S&P 500 forecast as earnings expectations climb higherMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images

UBS’s 7,900 target is not a fresh reset According to Seeking Alpha reporting, UBS Global Wealth Management is sticking with its S&P 500 target, at 7,900 by year-end.More AI:The new Chinese AI model rattling U.S. tech investorsAnthropic restores access to Mythos 5 for select organizationsSoftBank CEO offers stinging critique of Musk’s AI betIt’s important to note, though, that the July 15 call wasn’t a new target increase. UBS had previously raised its forecast to 7,900 on May 22, up from 7,500, according to Yahoo Finance.What’s new is the Swiss bank’s message on what will drive the market’s next leg higher.The bank believes that robust cash flow, earnings growth, and company-specific execution, rather than generalized AI enthusiasm, will pave the way for a strong finish to the year.The target has shifted several times this year. Reuters reports that UBS entered April with a forecast of 7,700, then cut it to 7,500 on April 7 as higher oil prices threatened growth and inflation and raised the prospect of the Federal Reserve easing.The May increase marked a 400-point reset from the previous target, placing UBS 200 points above its prewar forecast. Reuters reports that the S&P 500 ultimately closed at 7,572.42, up 28.83 points, leaving it about 0.5% below its June record close.Hence, UBS’s 7,900 forecast therefore implies about 4.3% price upside by year-end, excluding dividends.Moreover, its June 2027 target of 8,200 implies about 8.3% upside from that level.So this is a constructive but measured forecast, not an extremely aggressive call. Much of UBS’s original upside has already materialized since it raised the target in May.What is driving UBS’s bullish forecast? As I mentioned earlier, UBS’s bullish S&P 500 forecast is built first on a major earnings reset.The bank raised its 2026 earnings estimate for the index to $335 per share from $310, which implies nearly 20% annual growth, up from its prior 11% forecast. UBS also introduced a $375 EPS estimate for 2027, representing another 12% increase.At a 7,900 year-end target, the S&P 500 would trade at about 23.6 times projected 2026 earnings and 21.1 times 2027 earnings. According to FactSet, it’s about 25% above the S&P 500’s 10-year average forward P/E of 18.9.That makes corporate execution paramount, with companies expected to deliver unusually strong profit growth now embedded in their estimates.Semiconductors form nearly 50% of the $25 increase in UBS’s 2026 EPS forecast. The sector contributed about $11, while energy added roughly $6 and all other industries contributed around $8.Additionally, UBS expects AI-related capital spending to supercharge 68% in 2026 to about $820 billion, followed by another 21% increase in 2027 to nearly $1 trillion. Tight semiconductor supply, rising chip-rental prices and ongoing capital raising makes near-term spending cuts virtually impossible.Tech stocks rally as megacaps lead gains Tech stocks were mostly in the green on July 15, though the rally was concentrated in megacaps instead of semiconductors. According to CNBC reporting, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.62% to 26,269.23, outperforming the S&P 500’s 0.38% move.Apple led the recovery among major AI stocks, rising 3.95% to a record closing high, while Alphabet’s Class C shares rose 3.60%. Meta advanced 3.07%, Amazon gained 3.02%, and Microsoft climbed 2.78%. Moreover, Saxo reports that fintech giant PayPal was the day’s standout mover, surging 17.2%, after reports of a takeover bid. On the flipside, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.1% as investors sold off Micron, Marvell, Intel, AMD, and other hardware names. What could derail UBS’s call?The first big risk is that earnings expectations have become too demanding. UBS itself doesn’t expect another large round of corporate guidance bumps this quarter, while broader Wall Street projections now require exceptionally strong results, particularly from technology and semiconductors.In fact, a Goldman Sachs note I covered showed that strategist Ben Snider felt that stocks might face near-term pressure from interest rate hikes, even with corporate profits being a bigger long-term driver. Reuters reports that even though inflation cooled this week, markets are not out of the woods yet, with CME FedWatch still assigning roughly a 60% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting.The second big risk is concentration. Chip stocks and energy accounted for the bulk of UBS’s EPS upgrade. A memory-pricing reversal, slower hyperscaler spending, or falling energy profits will weaken the earnings foundation behind 7,900.Thirdly, oil prices and geopolitics remain major issues. UBS previously cut its target because disruption around the Strait of Hormuz threatened to raise inflation, weaken economic growth, and delay Fed easing. Related: Microsoft CEO adds fuel to Palantir CEO’s AI warning

Guillermo Del Toro’s “Frankenstein: The Reborn Cut,” which is the director’s cut of the Netflix film from The Criterion Collection, has landed a release date.

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Legendary investor and now-retired CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B), Warren Buffett, spent decades teaching investors that knowing what to sidestep is probably as important as finding what to buy.The Oracle of Omaha zeroed in on businesses with predictable demand, durable pricing power, strong cash flow, and advantages built to survive economic cycles.Technology was typically something outside of his comfort zone. The concern was never that the technology lacked value, but that the level of disruption was so extreme that long-term outcomes were tougher to forecast.“If we have a strength, it is in recognizing when we are operating well within our circle of competence,” Buffett wrote in Berkshire’s 1999 shareholder letter.That caution actually made Berkshire’s much-talked-about Apple investment remarkable, although Buffett viewed the iPhone maker mainly as a powerful consumer brand.His latest revelation goes further.Though the poor guy is trying to enjoy retirement, CNBC was not about to let that happen. Its scoop revealed that Buffett personally initiated a position many investors had assumed came from Berkshire’s new leadership. 

Berkshire Hathaway built its large Alphabet stake after Buffett initiated purchases personallyDaniel Zuchnik/WireImage

Buffett reveals Alphabet was his call Warren Buffett ended speculation that Berkshire’s growing stake in Google’s parent company, Alphabet (GOOGL), was mainly current CEO Greg Abel’s attempt to reshape the company’s portfolio.More Tech:Microsoft may be done making Xbox cheapIBM handed two major wins within 24 hoursSpaceX’s 32% crash may force Musk into radical move“I normally wouldn’t give you an answer on something like that,” Buffett told CNBC, before confirming that he initiated the investment. Still, he stressed that Abel is now “the decider” and that neither man makes major moves that the other opposes.The stake, which Berkshire began building in Q3 2025, has grown to more than $31 billion following a recent $10 billion private purchase.Buffett framed the decision through the same lens that has effectively guided Berkshire over the years: buy a strong business on sensible terms and let its economics compound.“The important thing is to buy a good business,” Buffett said, defining that as one capable of earning high returns on capital over an extended period.Alphabet’s tremendous AI spending has switched up its financial profile, but Buffett sees endurance behind the rising capital requirements. He said the company is “more likely to be a winner” than 90% or 95% of what Wall Street promotes.Yet Buffett stopped short of calling Alphabet Berkshire’s best business. “I don’t like it as well as at least four or five other businesses that we own,” he said.The investment, therefore, feels a lot like Buffett applying his principles to a company once considered outside his comfort zone.His final test was characteristically simple: “It’s not a question of whether it was wonderful yesterday. It’s the question, how long is it going to be wonderful?”Alphabet quickly becomes a major Berkshire holdingAccording to Reuters, Berkshire Hathaway began building its position in Alphabet, Google’s parent company, during Q3 2025. It disclosed 17.85 million Alphabet shares as of Sept. 30, a stake valued at about $4.93 billion when it was revealed in November.The investment grew at a breathtaking pace. Morningstar reported that Berkshire bought another 36.4 million Class A shares and established a 3.6 million-share Class C position during Q1 2026.Moreover, Berkshire’s SEC filing shows it held roughly 57.8 million Alphabet shares, valued at approximately $16.6 billion as of March 31. Based on the filing values, Alphabet is Berkshire’s sixth-largest U.S.-listed stock holding, representing about 6.3% of its $263.1 billion 13F portfolio.Morningstar notes that Berkshire’s broader stock portfolio, including foreign investments excluded from its 13F, was worth $312.6 billion. Within technology, Alphabet ranked second only to Apple, which remained Berkshire’s largest overall holding at roughly $57.4 billion.Later, Bloomberg reported that Berkshire’s publicly traded stake in Alphabet had jumped to approximately $21 billion by July 14. Berkshire also committed another $10 billion through a private placement, bringing its combined Alphabet exposure to roughly $31 billion. Alphabet’s economics fit Berkshire, but AI tests the thesisA massive bet on Alphabet stock looks rather unconventional alongside Coca-Cola, American Express, and BNSF, but its economics resemble those of what Berkshire Hathaway traditionally buys. What Berkshire’s looking at as per its latest shareholder letter are understandable businesses with durable advantages, long-term prospects, owner-minded management, and enough conviction to justify concentrated, patient ownership. To be fair, Alphabet delivers much of that.In Q1, the company posted sales that shot up 22% to $109.9 billion, and its operating margin expanded to 36.1%. Search revenue grew 19%, while Google Cloud revenue surged 63% to $20 billion, and operating income reached $6.6 billion. Moreover, the tech giant also held $126.8 billion of cash and marketable securities.However, the strain that AI is putting on its business is immense.Alphabet generated $45.8 billion in operating cash during the quarter but spent $35.7 billion on property and equipment, resulting in $10.1 billion in free cash flow. Moreover, like many of its Big Tech peers, it has raised its 2026 capital spending guidance to $180 billion to $190 billion. Buffett’s broader view of AI, though, remains cautious.He described the technology as offering tremendous potential for both good and harm and warned that it could accelerate fraud. Yet he told CNBC that hyperscalers now have little choice but to spend heavily.On top of that, Morningstar reports that Berkshire’s balance sheet limits the cost of being early. Its insurance and other businesses held $373.5 billion in cash and Treasury bills as of March 31, versus $305.7 billion in equity and fixed-income securities. Berkshire says that cash is dry powder, not exactly a retreat from investing.Related: Microsoft CEO adds fuel to Palantir CEO’s AI warning

Mortgage rates have increased for the second week in a row on July 16, according to Freddie Mac. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is up .06% to 6.55%.Rates have been hovering around 6.5%, and they’ve now surpassed 6.5% for the first time in more than a month.In my years of reporting on mortgage rates, I’ve learned to evaluate several numbers to put current rates in perspective. Week-over-week and year-over-year changes are important, of course. But one number that doesn’t get the attention it deserves is the 52-week average.How mortgage rates stack up against 52-week averagesComparing current rates with the 52-week average rate helps us understand whether today’s rates are relatively high, low, or normal compared with the last full year.The 30-year 6.55% fixed rate is 0.23% higher over the 52-week average of 6.32%. The 15-year 5.93% rate is 0.32% above its average.This is my way of saying that mortgage rates are relatively high.I want to point this out because many experts — including me — have stated that 2026 mortgage rates are below the historical average. They’ve also been down year over year. (Although the annual 15-year rate is 0.01% higher the week of July 16.)Related: Zillow sees change in housing market, home valuesBut when comparing July 16 mortgage rates to rates from the last full year, there’s no denying that current rates are fairly high. What’s causing these high rates, and where will they go from here?We can easily draw a line from the Iran war to oil prices to inflation to mortgage rates.”Mortgage rates are essentially tied to the outcome of the Iran conflict at this point,” Corey Burr, senior vice president at TTR Sotheby’s International Realty, told TheStreet.Mortgage rates rely on the Iran war and oil prices”The biggest story right now is the end of the ceasefire with Iran and what it could mean for oil prices,” Jeff DerGurahian, chief investment officer and head economist at LoanDepot, said in a statement shared with TheStreet.Mortgage rates had ticked down for a few weeks as the United States and Iran seemed to be working toward ending the war. However, Iran attacked vessels on the Strait of Hormuz, the two countries continued to attack each other, and President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire was over on July 8.Since July 8, fixed mortgage rates have been rising.”If [the war] festers later into the year or into 2027, I anticipate the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate will be range-bound in the 6-7% range,” Burr said. “If there is a quick resolution to the conflict and oil drops precipitously, then the 30-year fixed should fall below 6%.”More Mortgage Rates:Real estate giant updates mortgage rate, home price predictionsSocial Security inaction could push mortgage rates higherHarsh 6.5% mortgage rates cause stunning housing market changeDerGurahian pointed out that the uncertainty about the war is preventing mortgage rates from decreasing. I also expect that mortgage rates will stay stagnant or even increase the longer the war continues.Oil prices have also been rising in response to the end of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, opened at $72.11 on July 7, Business Insider confirmed, and closed at $85.06 on July 15.How do oil prices indirectly impact mortgage rates? Oil affects the cost of so many goods and services in America that when oil prices are up, inflation typically also rises.And when inflation grows more aggressively, you can probably expect mortgage rates to follow suit.Like I said, a straight line from the war to oil prices to inflation to mortgage rates.Slower inflation may not be enough to help mortgage ratesNow let’s talk about the current relationship between inflation and mortgage rates.The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the June Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, on July 14. And the numbers were actually better than what most people expected.Wall Street had expected annual inflation growth rate of 3.8%, but it came in at 3.5%. The year-over-year core inflation rate (which omits food and energy) was 2.6%, while economists had predicted a 2.9% increase.Since inflation is better than expected, shouldn’t mortgage rates at least inch down a little in the near future?Possibly… but not necessarily.The CPI looked at June data, and the ceasefire didn’t end until July 8. The July CPI report, released Aug. 12, could tell a very different story.Also, the CPI isn’t the most important index for projecting future moves by the Federal Reserve.The Federal Reserve heavily bases its decision on whether to cut, hike, or hold the federal funds rate on what inflation is doing. The central bank doesn’t discount the CPI, but it considers the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index more seriously because it provides a “broader and more comprehensive measure of inflation,” according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the next PCE report on Thursday, July 30 — the day after the next Fed meeting ends. So, it won’t have an impact on the July Fed meeting.The July 30 PCE report will also show June data. We won’t even see the PCE data for July until Aug. 28, and the next Fed meeting will be Sept. 15-16.

The latest inflation data probably won’t lead to a mortgage-rate decrease.Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

Key takeaways from mortgage rate newsTake a “wait and see” approach for Fed rates. Some analysts have predicted two or even three fed funds rate hikes in 2026. This is definitely possible, but DerGurahian thinks the market might be jumping to conclusions. “If labor market data continues to cool and inflation readings come in at or below expectations… what is currently being viewed as multiple hikes could ultimately look more like a one-and-done move by the Fed,” he said.But don’t plan for mortgage rates to plummet. Regarding the Fed’s decisions and their impacts on mortgage loan rates, it’s like the saying goes: Hope for the best but plan for the worst. There are still a lot of unknowns regarding what the Fed will do in 2026.Don’t wait for rates to drop before buying. There’s no guarantee that interest rates will decrease in the near future. Therefore, you shouldn’t hold off on buying a house just because you’re waiting for a lower rate. That might not happen for a long time. If you can still comfortably afford a house at today’s mortgage rates, go ahead and start the process.Look for opportunities to lock in a lower mortgage rate. Burr recommended obtaining a preapproval letter from a mortgage lender, getting quotes from several lenders, and comparing fixed- versus adjustable-rate loans.Related: Dave Ramsey, Vanguard warn Americans on housing costs