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Should You Be Nervous About All-Time Market Highs? What History Really Tells Us
Every time the stock market hits a new record, many investors’ natural instinct is caution: Has the market moved too far, too fast? Is a crash lurking just around the corner?
The S&P 500 set its most recent all-time closing high on Thursday, August 13, 2026, finishing at 7,798.99. That marked the index’s 27th record close of the year, following clusters of record highs in both 2024 and 2025.
On a recent episode of Ask an Advisor on the Clark Howard Podcast, host Wes Moss, a fiduciary financial advisor, dug into market history to explain why record highs shouldn’t keep you from investing.
What an All-Time High Actually Is
An all-time high just means the index closed the day at a level it has never reached before. Wes describes it as the market inching its way higher up a mountain.
Technically, every all-time high is unprecedented, which is part of why the headlines can make each one feel like a singular event. But market history shows that record highs aren’t nearly as unusual — or as ominous — as they may seem.
All-Time Highs Tend to Cluster
Market history shows that record highs rarely happen in isolation. Instead, they tend to cluster during sustained bull markets.
There are also long stretches with none at all. From 1974 through 1979, zero. From 2001 through 2006, zero. From 2009 through 2012, zero. And as recently as 2023, zero.
But once the market clears its previous peak, additional records often follow. Wes calls this “flywheel momentum”:
2017: 62 all-time highs
2018: 19 all-time highs
2019: 35 all-time highs
2020: 33 all-time highs, in a year that opened with a bear market and a drop of more than 30%
Wes is careful to point out that an all-time high doesn’t guarantee stronger returns ahead. But historically, reaching a record high hasn’t been a reliable signal that weaker returns — or a major downturn — are around the corner.
Corrections Are Normal and Expected
Co-host Christa DiBiase put the question the way a lot of listeners are probably thinking it: Are we going to have a September surprise?
Pullbacks are part of a normal market cycle, and Wes’s position is that investors should be prepared for one at all times — not just after a run of records or heading into a month with a bad reputation.
The numbers help put those declines in perspective. According to J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the S&P 500 has experienced an average intra-year decline of 14.2% since 1980. Yet annual returns were positive in 35 of those 46 years.
In other words, a significant drop at some point during the year isn’t unusual — even in a year that ultimately turns out to be good for investors.
There is always a “wall of worry.” Geopolitical tension, oil prices, inflation, what the Federal Reserve does next, and whether earnings can support current valuations are among the concerns investors are weighing now. Different worries surface at different times, but historical data shows that record highs are not, by themselves, a warning sign of an imminent downturn.
What Happens After Rare, Rapid Surges
It’s not just record highs that can make investors nervous. A market that climbs very quickly can trigger the same instinct: Surely stocks have gone up too much and have to give some of it back.
But history shows that strong momentum can continue.
The S&P 500 gained 19.49% over the two months ending May 29, 2026. According to an analysis from Nasdaq Dorsey Wright, only nine other distinct periods since the S&P 500’s 1957 inception have seen the index gain more over a two-month stretch.
What happened next? On average, the market posted additional gains.
The S&P 500’s average return one month after those previous surges was more than 5%. Looking further out, average returns one year and two years later both topped 25%.
That’s not a prediction that the market will keep climbing this time. The sample size is small, and several of those historical surges occurred as the market rebounded from major declines.
But the data challenge the assumption that a big rally automatically means stocks are “due” for a pullback. Historically, unusually strong momentum has often been followed by more gains rather than an immediate reversal.
Final Thoughts
None of this rules out a correction. Wes is clear that one can happen at any time.
But the historical record doesn’t suggest that an all-time high, by itself, is a reason to sit in cash and wait for a pullback. Sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better entry point means trying to time the market — and potentially missing additional gains while you wait.
The approach Clark has recommended for decades still applies: Keep investing consistently in broad-based, low-cost index funds and let time do the work.
To hear the full discussion and Wes’s answers to listener retirement questions, watch the Ask an Advisor market highs segment.
The post Should You Be Nervous About All-Time Market Highs? What History Really Tells Us appeared first on Clark Howard.
Jim Cramer reveals the sweet spot for buying Target stock
Jim Cramer made an interesting call on Target (TGT) this week.
The retailer reported fiscal second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2026, and the numbers were strong enough to send shares up more than 5% that morning.
Cramer watched that move and gave viewers a specific piece of advice on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”
He said to let Target come in before buying.
That single sentence carries a lot of meaning for anyone holding Target or thinking about starting a position. It tells you that while Cramer trusts the business, he’s not comfortable with the current entry price.
The rest of this article breaks down what he meant, why the quarter mattered, and what could actually create the pullback he is describing.
What Jim Cramer’s “let it come in” call means for Target investors
Cramer’s message was direct. He told viewers, “Let it come in and buy.”
He added that Target is a winner even after a big run. That advice changes how you should think about the stock.
For most of this year, Target was a turnaround bet, and investors were wagering that a new plan would work before the numbers proved it.
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This quarter gave them that proof, and it shifts Target from a speculative story into a steadier, dividend-paying holding.
The stock has climbed more than 53% in 2026, which is why Cramer advises patience.
Buying after a sharp rally raises your risk if the price dips. Waiting for a lower entry gives you a better starting point and a higher dividend yield on the shares you buy.
How Target’s second-quarter earnings proved the turnaround is real
The quarter gave Cramer his evidence.
Comparable sales rose 3.8%, a clear reversal from the 1.9% decline Target posted a year earlier, according to Target‘s earnings release.
Traffic did the heavy lifting. The number of visits rose 3.6%, which tells you shoppers are choosing Target again rather than just spending more per trip.
Digital sales grew 8.7%, led by same-day delivery, which jumped more than 25%.
All six of Target’s core merchandise categories grew. That matters because it shows the recovery is spread across the store, not driven by one lucky segment.
New CEO Michael Fiddelke credited the company’s price cuts.
Target has lowered prices on more than 10,000 items over the past year, CNBC reported, with more reductions planned.
Target reported a second straight quarter of comparable sales growth as its price-cutting strategy pulled more shoppers into stores.Justin Sullivan / Getty Images
Why the tariff refund makes Target’s earnings look bigger than they are
Target reported earnings of $4.11 per share, more than double the $2.05 it earned a year earlier, according to its SEC filing.
A $994 million pretax tariff refund added $1.65 per share to that total.
Target received the payment after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that the tariffs behind it had been imposed without proper legal authority.
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Strip out that one-time payment and adjusted earnings were $2.46 per share, which is still a gain of about 20% from last year.
The core business is healthy. The reported figure is simply inflated by a one-time government payment.
Some large investors may trim positions once they separate the real growth from the one-time boost, and that selling could pressure the stock.
What could actually push Target shares lower
Cramer wants a pullback, so it helps to know what might cause one.
Two categories inside Target remain weak. Apparel and home goods lagged the rest of the store, and both carry higher margins than food and essentials.
If consumers cut back on clothing and home decor later this year, Target’s profit margins could feel the pressure.
The broader economy adds another layer of risk.
U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the Census Bureau reported, marking the first monthly drop since October 2025.
At the same time, the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to about 5.31% in mid-August, its highest level since 2007, according to CNBC.
Higher yields often pull money out of stocks. If that pressure spreads, Target could get dragged down with the market, even though its own results are solid.
How Target’s dividend rewards patient buyers
The waiting game comes with a payoff.
Target pays a dividend that yields about 2.9% at the current share price near $159. That yield rises when the stock price falls, so a pullback would let you lock in a slightly higher payout on each share.
Target has also raised its dividend for 54 straight years, which places it among a small group of companies known as Dividend Kings.
For a patient investor, the plan Cramer describes is simple:
Wait for a dip rather than chasing the post-earnings rally.
Use the higher yield as income while you hold.
Treat the stronger traffic and sales trends as your signal that the business is stable.
The dividend turns waiting into a paid strategy rather than lost time.
What still has to happen before Target becomes a clear buy
The bullish case is not finished yet.
Target raised its full-year outlook, and that guidance sets the bar for the rest of 2026. The company now expects full-year sales growth of about 5% and adjusted earnings of $9.90 to $10.90 per share, according to Benzinga.
Two things need to hold for the story to keep working.
Traffic must stay positive. Rising visits are the clearest proof that price cuts are pulling shoppers back, and a reversal would undercut the whole call.
Apparel and home also need to recover. Fiddelke said the home category is a multiyear project, so investors should expect slow progress there rather than a quick fix.
If both trends hold through the back half of 2026, the pullback Cramer wants becomes a genuine buying opportunity rather than a warning sign.
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‘Amex Recession’ Videos Have Taken Over TikTok. We Fact-Checked the Viral Claim
Social media platforms have been flooded with viral content claiming American Express is cutting credit card spending limits because the company is concerned the economy is entering a recession.
If you’ve scrolled TikTok, X or Instagram in the past week, you may have seen one of the videos about the so-called “Amex recession.”
Money embarked on a fact check to get to the bottom of these claims, starting by tracing the trend’s origins.
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How the ‘Amex recession’ trend started
Before the flurry of videos began, American Express hadn’t made any recent announcement about credit limits or revised its macroeconomic outlook, nor were there any related media reports that may have sparked the trend.
The first mentions of an Amex recession on X, formerly Twitter, appeared on Aug. 15. But the trend started at least a day earlier.
Kevin Kunze, 29, an entrepreneur and influencer who goes by the handle EcomSideHustle, posted an Aug. 14 TikTok video declaring that he planned to cancel all his American Express cards after his credit limits were slashed. Kunze tells Money he was the first to post, and his original video with 2.2 million views and 120,000 likes remains the most viewed.
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Kunze has nine American Express business credit cards for his various ventures, which include Section 8 housing “BRRRRs” — he has nearly 60 active renovations right now — and an Amazon business selling private-label products, he says. He also sells online courses and coaching to social media followers who are interested in growing their own Amazon side hustles.
“I have been using [American Express] since I think 2018 for pretty much 100% of my spend,” he said in the video. “I have spent probably $6 [million] to $15 million per year on those cards… and have been paying on autopay the entire statement balance every single month for the history of my account.”
With little warning, the bank dramatically reduced his limits last week, creating a cash flow crisis for his businesses, he says. Previously, some of Kunze’s cards had no preset spending limit, he says.
“I used to be able to spend anything that I wanted on any card, and now all of a sudden they drop me to a quarter million dollars spend per month on some of the cards.”
The biggest hit: A preset spending limit on an American Express Business Gold Card that he uses for his construction business was set at $100,000, he says. He had previously been spending as much as $350,000 a month on that card and had a balance around $180,000 when the change occurred. Because of the new limits, he was forced to make payments of more than $250,000 nearly a month earlier than expected to be able to continue spending, he says.
In a follow up video, Kunze said he actually corresponded with American Express Chairman and CEO Steve Squeri about the situation and received a response to an email in about 12 minutes. In the response, shared with Money, Squeri wrote, “I will have my head of credit review this to determine why this action was taken and to have our small business team get involved.”
Personal information was redacted by Kunze. Money redacted an additional email address and retouched the image for readability.
“He was just appeasing me, but nonetheless, I appreciated him hearing me out,” Kunze said in his video.
It wasn’t until Saturday evening, in his fifth video on the matter, that Kunze first mentioned the idea of a “recession.” By that point, users commenting on his TikTok were calling what happened to him a “recession indicator,” and the theory that American Express is tightening limits in response to economic concerns was appearing on other platforms.
“American Express is reducing credit limits for pretty much anybody who spends multiple seven figures per year,” Kunze said in the video with “Amex – Recession” text overlaid on the screen. “From what I could find online, they do this fairly often. However, based on the responses from my video yesterday, seemingly they’re doing a lot more of that in the past couple of weeks, which maybe is possibly a recession indicator. I honestly don’t know.”
‘So maybe we’re cooked’
While Kunze’s response was measured, admitting he didn’t know if this is a recession indicator, the videos that followed were not.
“This is 110% a recession indicator,” TikTok user @kiarajaxn said in her post, with overlaid text stating that “Amex is randomly cutting off millionaires 😳.”
Then the comparisons to past economic downturns began.
“The only other time this happened is right before COVID and the 2008 recession. So maybe we’re cooked,” influencer @CamCasey said in a viral post to his 1 million Instagram followers, alleging that he, too, was limited despite never missing a payment.
He showed a screenshot of a $289,000 balance, which he said isn’t unusual for his account. The image appears to show he was about $36,000 over his limit despite normally spending “over $300,000 almost every single month on this card.” Casey has since returned to posting his standard content, flexing cars and watches, and could not be reached for comment.
On Instagram, @hxxntrr said American Express cut his Platinum card limit from about $100,000 a month to about $50,000.
“Amex just cut everybody’s rates,” he said, referring to credit limits. “Amex is very, very good at looking at data, and they understand where the economy is going and how much debt that people are in. Now, their books are probably getting worse and worse, and that’s why they are… cutting down on how much they are letting their people spend.”
This is just a sampling of the videos pushing the unfounded claim that Amex is bracing for a recession — and it’s difficult to tell who’s actually a customer facing issues and who’s just chasing views.
The videos often include a call to action, such as steering folks to Chase business credit cards, suggesting an AI-powered credit repair service or urging users to open a savings account through a link in the creator’s bio.
What American Express is saying
The bank has rejected the claim that it’s broadly cutting credit limits because of recession concerns.
An American Express spokesperson said in a statement to Money Thursday that the company “regularly reviews Card Member accounts and may adjust credit limits based on a variety of factors as part of our normal course of business.”
While reviewing his account last week, the American Express support team asked Kunze to either upload his three most recent business bank statements or digitally link the business bank account. That’s ultimately how he restored most of his limits, he says.
Requests for this verification are not abnormal, either, American Express said, though it could not comment on Kunze’s individual situation.
The bank added that card members are notified when limits are adjusted. Customers can call American Express support using the number on the back of their card to request reviews of credit limit decisions.
Speaking with Money on Thursday, Kunze said that even he finds the ‘Amex recession’ claims unlikely at this point. Looking at the company’s financial disclosures, he saw that credit card defaults are low, making the recession theory feel less plausible.
“It only really makes sense to tighten spending if people aren’t paying,” he says. “But as of right now, their numbers genuinely do not show that.”
On a July 24 earnings call, Squeri said that “both delinquency and write-off rates remain below 2019 levels, and delinquency rates have been between 1.2% and 1.3% for over three years.”
He credited the relatively low rates to the company’s strategies to “attract customers with high credit quality.”
Why credit card companies cut limits
To the extent that social media claims about individual American Express credit limit changes are true, they aren’t signs that “the sky is falling down,” says Brian Riley, a director of credit advisory services and a co-head of payments at Javelin Strategy & Research.
The key concept to understand is “credit hygiene,” or a card issuer’s practice of routinely reviewing customers’ spending and credit limits to mitigate risk, he says. Not every bank is as focused on this as American Express, Riley says.
For example, he has a $90,000 limit across three Barclays cards, which he and his wife barely touch. He’s hardly a spending customer for the bank, but if he wanted to buy a Corvette and disappear, he could.
“That’s really not good credit hygiene,” he says. “What you see American Express do and top issuers like Citi, Chase and so forth, they routinely look at your purchase activity and line utilization.”
The latest Federal Reserve Stress Test Results, required by the Dodd-Frank Act, simulate how large banks would fare in a range of economic scenarios, including severely stressed conditions, Riley adds.
“If you look at the write-off rates under these severely stressed economic conditions, Amex is heads above everybody else for this,” he says. “It really shows that they routinely look at [credit hygiene]” and “they’re being very prudent in how they manage their portfolio.”
What is the Difference Between Plagiarism and Copyright?
Most of us use these words interchangeably. A teacher sees a pupil copying text without citation and brands it plagiarism. A musician copies work from another artist without permission, and gets sued for copyright infringement. Both are about stealing someone else’s work. The regulations are all different and the penalties and how each one is dealt with are all totally different.
Getting the distinction right really helps. Knowing the limits of one thing from the next enables you to safeguard your own work, to avoid conflicts with other people’s work and to comprehend what you are dealing with when an issue arises.
The Main Difference
Plagiarism is an ethical and scholarly concern. It is the presentation of another’s ideas, words or work as your own, without giving credit, regardless of whether that material is protected by law. The offense is a question of credit and honesty. People doing original research who want to check their work before submission often run it through a tool. The JustDone Plagiarism Checker enters it on a large database, flags matching content with source attribution so you can understand exactly what prompted the result and correct it before it becomes an issue. That level of granularity in the report is more important than a simple pass/fail grade, especially when a work pulls from numerous sources and the boundary between citation and copying is blurred.
It is always best to catch a possible case of plagiarism early. Copyright infringement is a legal matter. It is when someone utilizes copyrighted material without the rights holder’s permission in a way that goes beyond what the law allows. Copyright may be infringed even with proper attribution to the creator. You can even plagiarize material that is not copyrighted. They overlap yet neither requires the other.
What Copyright Really Covers
Copyright attaches to any original creative work once it is expressed in a tangible form. No registration, no notification necessary. A blog entry, a photo, a piece of music, a software script, a research paper – all covered from the instant it is created for the life of the author plus 70 years in most places.
What Constitutes Infringement
Copyright infringement is the unauthorized copying, distribution, public display or performance, or creation of derivative works from protected material. Some clear examples:
Copying large chunks of an article and republishing it without permission;
Using a licensed image without obtaining appropriate rights;
Making a cover version of a song and selling it without a license;
Translating a book into another language without the permission of the author or publisher.
The operative term is substantial. Copyright law protects the expression of ideas, not the ideas themselves. Rewording an argument is fine in general. Lifting the sentences that built the argument is not.
What Fair Use Means
Fair use is a doctrine in United States law which authorizes limited use of copyrighted content without acquiring permission from the rights holders. Commentary, criticism, parody, news reporting, education – all these can qualify. Fair use is decided by four considerations: the purpose of the use, the nature of the original work, the amount taken, and the effect on the market for the original.
Fair use is a defense, not a guaranteed pass. You cannot be certain beforehand that your use qualifies. Cases are decided on an individual basis. Educational use for students and researchers often offers some protection, in particular for brief excerpts used in analysis. That protection has limits and does not extend to all academic environments without exception.
Infringement Without Plagiarism and Plagiarism Without Infringement
This is where the difference starts to matter in practice.
Scenario
Plagiarism?
Copyright Infringement?
Copying a 19th century work without giving credit
Yes
No (work is in public domain)
Reprinting a modern piece with full credit
No
Yes (credit does not authorize use)
Paraphrasing a source without citation
Yes
Probably no
Licensing a song to use in a video
No
No
Presenting a friend’s original work as your own
Yes
Possible (depending on agreement)
Full credit does not shield you from a copyright claim. Public domain sources can still be plagiarized. These are not the same issue measured by the same standard.
How Each Gets Handled
Plagiarism consequences occur in institutional settings: academic sanctions, damage to professional reputation, retraction of published work, termination. That process is handled by the institution, not the judicial system.
Copyright claims are handled in a different manner. Rights holders might send takedown notices, seek compensation or file litigation. Legal remedies range from injunctions to stop further use to financial damages. Deliberate infringement carries higher consequences than accidental infringement.
Copyright and Plagiarism in Student Works
Both problems apply at the same time, especially to students. Plagiarism is included in academic integrity policies. If the work itself is copyrighted as well, a rights holder could theoretically make a separate legal claim, but this is not common in practice for student papers. The more typical risk is academic punishment, affecting grades, standing and graduation.
Fair use plagiarism is a concept that sometimes pops up when students think quoting for educational purposes gives them a pass on citation. It doesn’t. Fair use is a copyright term . Plagiarism is a concept of attribution. When used for instructional reasons, source citation is still required.
What Really Keeps You Safe
The practical strategy for authors, students, and anybody involved in creating content is twofold: cite what you take from, and check if what you are utilizing requires authorization beyond citation. Citation deals with the plagiarism aspect. The copyright side is covered by permission or fair usage analysis.
The initial count is supported by automated tools. You may have missed a match, but running a draft through a plagiarism checker before submission can catch it. They don’t make copyright decisions, because those entail a judgment about permission and fair use that a tool can’t accomplish. And regarding a copyright, that’s the question: do you have the right to use the content as you’re using it, whether or not you intend to give credit.
The first step to getting both right is to properly understand the distinction between plagiarism and copyright infringement. They call for various responses, different habits, different sorts of knowledge. “Treating them as the same thing creates gaps on both sides.
The post What is the Difference Between Plagiarism and Copyright? appeared first on Addicted 2 Success.
High-Ticket vs. Low-Ticket: The ARC Framework for Scaling Your Online Business
This is for people trying to make money online and getting stuck on the wrong question.
You have something to sell, or you are about to. You have heard you should go high-ticket because fewer buyers means less grind. You have also seen people quietly doing real numbers on $27 products and wondered if you are making this harder than it needs to be. Maybe you are a beginner who freezes when it is time to ask for serious money. Maybe you already close well and cannot stand the idea of celebrating a tiny sale. Maybe you have a job, a kid, or a calendar that will not survive a day of Zoom calls.
If that is you, stop arguing about which model is “smarter.” The fight is a distraction.
If you want $100,000, the math is rude and simple. Sell ten things for $10,000. Or sell 10,000 things for $10. Both camps are right about the equation. Both are lying about the easy part.
You always pay to scale. You just pay in a different currency. The useful question is not high-ticket or low-ticket. It is which bill you can pay this month.
Every offer charges you three ways
Call it ARC: Ask, Reach, Carry.
Ask is the nerve it takes to request the money. Listing a $27 product is easy. Asking a stranger for $3,000 is a different person. You need language, patience, and the stomach to sit in someone else’s fear on a call. When a founder chokes on a high-ticket close, the product is rarely the problem. They could not make the ask.
Reach is the bill people shrug off until it flattens them. One $20 sale is a conversation. Ten thousand of them is a machine: content, ads, tests, checkout pages, the willingness to treat a $27 sale like it matters. Confidence does not cover this. The numbers work or they do not. The upside is you can pay Reach at 3 a.m. in sweatpants.
Carry is what you hold after they pay. Delivery. Onboarding. Messages. Expectations. The slot on your calendar that used to belong to you. Carry does not care that the business is “working.” It cares that the baby is sick, the day job ran long, or you already used your one good conversation. A lot of high-ticket offers do not fail because they are weak. They fail because the founder’s week cannot carry them.
This is also why memberships are often a bad trade. You keep paying Reach to replace the people who cancel, and you keep paying Carry for the ones who stay. A $97 course asks once and then mostly leaves you alone.
This is why you keep defending the model you already like
A beginner, or a parent with no spare mornings, is rich in odd hours and broke in Ask. A cheap, specific product is not a branding compromise. It is a fit. They can grind Reach when the house is quiet. They cannot yet sell $3,000 or live on Zoom.
A high-ticket operator has the opposite problem. Their identity is one sale equals $10,000. Ask is familiar. Carry is familiar. Volume feels like a demotion. So they try a $27 product, hate it, and conclude low ticket “doesn’t work.” It worked. Their nervous system just refused to celebrate a small win. Old strengths turned into an anchor.
Same math. Different bill.
Score the offer, then score your life
Before you build the next thing, give the offer a 1-to-5 on each cost.
How much new courage does this sale take?
How many strangers have to see it for the math to work?
How much of your week does a buyer own after they pay?
Then score yourself the same way.
If your Ask is a 2, a “premium” offer is just a product you will be too scared to sell. If your Carry is a 2 because you have a kid, daily coaching calls are not a strategy. They are a calendar you will resent.
Start with the cost you can pay now. Not the founder you are rehearsing to become next year.
You can change the mix later
You do not have to marry one tax.
A clean sequence looks like this. First, sell something small and sharp. Not “be more productive.” Something like “make your first sale without feeling slimy.” Get a hundred sales. That is enough proof that the thing is real. Then buy more Reach if you want speed — even $5 a day — instead of pretending ads are a personality type. After people already trust you, add Ask and Carry for the ones who want hands-on help.
Keep the cheap products specific. Keep the expensive ones specific. People do not buy your ladder. They buy a fix.
The founders who stay stuck are still arguing about which model is easier. The ones who move ask a quieter question every quarter: which of these three costs can I afford right now, and which one am I finally ready to learn?
The post High-Ticket vs. Low-Ticket: The ARC Framework for Scaling Your Online Business appeared first on Addicted 2 Success.
Morgan Stanley resets Nvidia stock forecast ahead of earnings
Nvidia (NVDA) stock is up about 15.19% year to date at the time of writing, Friday morning, Aug. 21. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 Index (SPY) is up about 12.17% in the same period.
Nvidia hasn’t only outpaced the S&P 500, but it has also outpaced all other Magnificent 7 members in the same period.
Here is how the other Magnificent 7 members have performed:
Apple (AAPL) is up 13.87%.
Amazon (AMZN) is up 12.49%.
Alphabet (GOOGL) is up 9.94%.
Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.13%.
Tesla (TSLA) is down 19.39%.
Meta (META) is down 16.53%.
This is an impressive result, considering that Nvidia stock faces volatility near earnings, and results for the second quarter (Q2) of fiscal 2027 are set for Aug. 26.
Nvidia usually manages to beat and raise every quarter, but the stock often dips despite this. In a research note shared with me, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore and his team outlined their expectations for the earnings report.
Heading into earnings, Nvidia is also making moves to strengthen its long-term position.
Key news for Nvidia stock
Nvidia is in talks with the Korean AI chip designer Rebellions about a possible partnership. The potential deal could be an investment or even an acquisition, Bloomberg reported.
The discussions are preliminary and may not result in a transaction. Rebellions designs AI inference chips, just like Groq. For those who are not familiar, I covered the Nvidia-Groq licensing deal in depth.
The short version of Groq’s story is that Nvidia ensured it has the best inference accelerator. It will be interesting to see how these talks develop, and whether they result in another specialized AI chip for inference.
Another important developing story is that Nvidia is in talks to invest in Cloverleaf Infrastructure, The Wall Street Journal reported.
This could become a significant advantage as Cloverleaf Infrastructure arranges power for data-center projects.
Morgan Stanley estimates $91.1 billion in revenue for Nvidia’s Q2.Shutterstock
Morgan Stanley sees strong growth for Nvidia even before Rubin product cycle impact
The team expects strong demand for Blackwell GPUs to lead to another quarter of beat-and-raise results.
Analysts noted that Nvidia has said Rubin will start shipping in Q3. They estimate $91.1 billion in revenue for Q2 and $102.3 billion in Q3.
Nvidia’s guidance for Q2:
Revenue of $91.0 billion ± 2%.
GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.9% and 75.0%, respectively, ±50 basis points.
Nvidia is not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in its outlook.Source: Nvidia
For a reminder of how Q1 results looked, I covered them in depth, along with Bank of America reaction.
Moore noted that Nvidia stock dipped the next day in each of the last four quarters, despite strong earnings.
“We aren’t necessarily optimistic that [the] trend reverses, as the potential drivers of more significant multiple expansion are centered on longer-term issues,” he wrote.
The long-term issues for the stock are:
Market share versus competitors
Circular financing concerns
Gross margin trajectory beyond 2026
The magnitude of Rubin’s contribution in the second half
He said Nvidia management will be optimistic about these four areas, but without material updates, he doesn’t expect the stock to move higher, assuming the typical results.
The team said there is strong enthusiasm for the Rubin platform, but it is too early to tell whether it will lead to market share gains at the expense of application-specific integrated circuits and AMD GPUs.
Moore reiterated an overweight rating for Nvidia stock and the price target of $288, based on a 22 multiple. He said that the multiple is in line with the broader market and at a discount compared to compute-semiconductor peers such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), and Intel (INTC).
He noted that the “high market share and gross margins leave limited levers for multiple expansion in the near term.”
Analysts noted downside risks for their price target:
AI end markets could fail to materialize as expected, and customers would sharply reduce GPU purchases.
AMD could reemerge as a viable GPU competitor.
Cloud customers outside of Google could develop competitive custom hardware.
What do other analysts think, and how does Morgan Stanley’s opinion compare?
According to MarketBeat, 52 of the 54 analysts covering Nvidia stock rate it a buy. Two give a hold rating. The average price target is $308.01.
Related: Bank of America’s latest Nvidia alert is a must-read for worried investors
Former JPMorgan exec takes on Social Security advisory role
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