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Home Equity Sharing: Pros and Cons
Key Takeaways
An equity sharing agreement is a contract in which the homeowner agrees to sell a portion of their home’s future price appreciation in exchange for a lump sum from an investor. They do not require monthly payments.
The homeowner can buy back the investment by repaying the original investment amount plus a percentage of the home’s appreciated value. Most agreements require homeowners to settle up after a certain amount of time has passed or when they sell the house.
Investment amounts can range between $15,000 to $600,000 or more, and the funds can be used for any purpose.
You may have to repay much more money than you initially received if your home value increases significantly. The exact share you’ll owe depends on your agreement and the investor you choose.
Equity is a big benefit for homeowners. Build up enough of it, and you can borrow against your equity and turn it into cash, using it for things like home repairs, renovations, medical bills, college costs, or even paying off high-interest debts, like credit cards.
But most home equity products — including the ever-popular home equity loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) — involve monthly payments and interest, which can eat into your cash flow and make it hard to pay off other debts simultaneously.
For homeowners who want to tap their equity without taking on more monthly costs, home equity sharing agreements are an option. These arrangements allow homeowners to access their home equity without technically incurring debt. Instead, they essentially sell a percentage of their home’s future value in exchange for an upfront lump-sum payment.
There are no monthly payments or interest charged, and the amount owed is repaid at the end of a set time period or when the homeowner eventually sells the house. There are drawbacks, though. Learn about these and other important details about home equity sharing below.
What is a shared equity agreement?
Equity-sharing agreements are similar to investing in the stock market. The investor buys “stock” in your home and expects its future value to increase. When the agreement’s term is up or the home is sold, the investor recovers their original investment plus a percentage of any gains in the value of the home. On the other hand, if the property loses value, the investor loses as well, just as you would if selling a stock that’s lost value.
Kenon Chen, executive vice president of strategy and growth at property analytics firm Clear Capital, says home equity agreements have grown in popularity in recent years because they let homeowners access their equity without taking out a loan. This can make accessing equity easier and help keep cash flow free. It can also help you avoid the high interest rates the home equity loans and HELOCs can sometimes come with.
“They can be a really good option for folks that maybe are not ready to be approved for a traditional [home equity] product,” Chen says.
However, these agreements are complex contracts and aren’t governed by the same regulations that apply to traditional mortgage and home equity lenders. While they can be a good option for some homeowners, they also carry several risks you need to understand. Before signing any agreement, make sure you fully understand the terms, conditions and your potential long-term costs.
The pros of home equity sharing
No monthly payments
The most enticing upside to signing a home equity sharing agreement is that you won’t need to worry about the product’s debt cutting into your monthly budget anytime soon. Unlike traditional home equity loans or lines of credit, you won’t need to pay back the money owed in monthly installments, but rather as a lump sum at the end of the agreement. This keeps your cash flow free and avoids financial stress—at least for the time being. You also won’t pay interest.
No upfront payments required
Equity sharing agreements typically carry fees similar to those of home equity loans and lines of credit, including closing costs and origination fees. However, many home equity sharing companies let you deduct these costs from the funds they pay out. You’ll receive less if you choose this route, but you won’t need a large upfront cash payment to complete the transaction.
Investment amounts can be large, and you can use the money for any purpose
How much money you can obtain from an equity sharing company will depend on your home’s value and how much future equity you’re willing to sell. Companies have varying minimum and maximum investment amounts, ranging from $15,000 to $600,000. Additionally, there are no limits on how you can use the money.
You don’t need great credit
With traditional equity products like home equity loans, your credit score and other financial factors play a big role. With home-equity sharing agreements, the investor primarily looks at the value of the asset (your home) — not your financial attributes. In fact, with some companies, you can have a credit score as low as 500 and still qualify. Others have no income requirements, either.
Payoff times can be lengthy
Some home equity sharing companies offer agreements as long as 30 years, so you have time to use the funds as needed, and repayment isn’t due for many years down the road.
The cons of home equity sharing
You could owe much more than you received
Your home’s adjusted value, not the full appraisal value, determines the amount you’ll receive upfront and will play a part in how much you’ll have to repay. Because many investment companies lower your home’s value with a risk adjustment, you may end up owing money on equity gains that never happened.
The appreciation multiplier will also increase the amount you’ll have to repay the investor when the agreement ends, resulting in a much higher payment than you may initially expect.
There may be restrictions on when you can sell your home, make improvements or buy back the agreement
Because you are entering a legal agreement with a company over the future value of your home, your agreement may include limitations on what alterations you can make to the property that could potentially devalue it. Some companies can also limit your ability to opt out of the agreement before the term ends or charge you penalties if you sell your home prematurely.
You may need to sell your home to repay the investment
At the end of the agreed-upon contract period, you will need to make a lump sum payment of the initial investment amount plus a percentage of any equity gained. You may be able to pay this sum before the end of the agreement term if you decide to buy out the contract or sell your home. For most homeowners, however, reaching the end of the contract will mean selling their home, refinancing or finding another source of funding to repay the investment.
Limited availability
Home equity sharing agreements aren’t widely available. The few companies that do offer them typically limit agreements to a specific number of states — anywhere from 15 to about 30, depending on the company. You’ll need to shop around to find what options, if any, are available in your region.
How does a home equity sharing agreement work?
In a home equity sharing agreement, the company you are in business with will start by getting an appraisal to determine your home’s value and how much equity you currently own. Once the assessment is in, the company will apply a risk adjustment to that value — essentially a downward adjustment to offset the risk of future equity losses. Unison, for example, applies a 5% risk adjustment as of September 2026. This means you start the agreement already owing part of the “appreciated” value — the gap between the risk-adjusted and actual market value.
Home equity share companies will also apply an appreciation multiplier — a pricing adjustment that increases the investor’s share of your home’s increased value. For example, Hometap applies a 1.65x multiplier on investments settled within a five-year period, and a 1.8x multiplier on investments settled after five years.
If the company buys 10% of your home’s equity, you will be responsible for repaying the initial investment amount plus 16.5% or 18% of your home’s appreciation.
Each home equity sharing company will apply its own multiplier. As of September, 2026, Unison states its multiplier is typically 4x the investment percentage. So, if you sign an agreement and they buy 10% of your equity with a 4x multiplier, they will receive the original investment amount plus 40% of the gained appreciation when the agreement is settled.
Are there tax implications with a home equity sharing agreement?
The money you receive from an equity sharing agreement is generally not treated as taxable income. It’s considered an advance against your home’s future value, not earned income. The IRS, however, has not issued any guidance specific to equity sharing agreements, so this treatment reflects an industry practice rather than settled law.
These agreements also carry none of the tax advantages of a home equity loan or line of credit. With those products, you can deduct the interest under the following conditions: if you itemize, if the home secures the loan, if your total home acquisition is under $750,000 and if the money was used to purchase, build or substantially improve the home. These rules were made permanent under the One Big Beautiful Act. Because a home equity agreement isn’t a loan and charges no interest, there’s no interest to deduct.
You may owe capital gains tax when you sell. The standard exclusions — $250,000 for single filers, $500,000 for married couples filing jointly — apply the same way whether or not you have an agreement, and the amount you pay the investor does not reduce your gain. For example:
Adjusted tax basis (purchase price plus capital improvements): $350,000
Sale price: $700,000
Gain: $350,000
Paid to equity sharing investor: $115,000
A married couple filing jointly excludes the full $350,000 gain and owes nothing. A single filer excludes $250,000, leaving a $100,000 taxable gain and roughly $15,000 in tax at the 15% long-term capital gains rate. Your actual rate, however, can be 0%, 15% or 20%, depending on your income. High earners may owe an additional 3.8% net investment income tax. In both cases, the $115,000 paid to the investor does nothing for your tax bill: it isn’t a mortgage payoff, it isn’t a selling cost and it doesn’t raise your basis.
This is a simplified example. Your actual gain would also be reduced by selling costs such as agent commissions. The exclusion applies only to a primary residence — not a second home or investment property — and you must have owned and lived in the home for at least two of the previous five years before the sale. Consult a tax professional before signing an agreement or selling to see how an equity sharing agreement could affect your tax obligations.
What happens if you can’t repay?
A home equity sharing agreement may not be a loan, but it shares some common features. The investment company can place a lien on the property, just as a mortgage lender would when issuing a loan. If you fail to meet the agreement’s conditions and terms, or are unable to make the final balloon payment to buy back your equity, you may be forced to sell the home or risk foreclosure.
Equity sharing agreements are considered options contracts and therefore fall outside the legal disclosure protections offered by the Truth in Lending Act and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, so you must ensure you fully understand all the costs associated with a home equity investment.
These agreements are also attached to the property and are assumable. If you die, your heirs can assume the agreement and repay it when the term ends, or exit the agreement by paying the investment company. In case of a divorce, whichever partner keeps the home either assumes the agreement or buys the investment back.
Home equity sharing FAQs
Is equity sharing a good idea?
Home equity sharing agreements can be a good idea if you have a lot of home equity and need to borrow cash without taking on another monthly payment. Just be aware that if your home increases in value by the time the money comes due, you could end up paying much more than you borrowed.
What is the downside to a home equity agreement?
The biggest downside to a home equity sharing agreement is that the home equity investor could end up taking a big share of your home’s appreciation if it grows in value by the time your agreement ends. They also may come with restrictions on how you can improve your home or when you can sell it.
How does a home equity share work?
Home equity sharing is when you sell a portion of your home’s equity to an investor in exchange for a lump sum payment plus a portion of your home’s future value. They’re offered through a variety of investment companies, including Unlock, Hometap, Unison and more.
Who is the best lender for a home equity agreement?
The best home equity sharing company depends largely on where you’re located, as most companies only operate in a handful of states. Your credit score, how much equity you have, how much you’re looking to borrow, and other factors should influence which home equity investor you choose, too.
Summary of Money’s home equity sharing: pros and cons
Home equity sharing is an option for homeowners who may not want to take on new debt, can’t meet the standards of a traditional home equity loan or are looking to access their equity without making monthly payments. However, there are risks: you will need to repay the investment amount plus a percentage of the value gained at the end of the contract period. Weigh your options and speak with a financial advisor before deciding if a home equity sharing agreement is right for you.
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United Airlines cuts Canada routes amid shifting travel demand
Broader economic and political tensions between the United States and Canada are increasingly making their mark on commercial travel.
Canadian return trips by air from the U.S. remain 18.7% below September 2024 levels, according to federal travel data compiled by Statistics Canada, reflecting a continued pullback in cross-border travel amid economic and political uncertainty.
Against this backdrop of softer cross-border travel demand, United Airlines has cut five direct routes linking major American and Canadian cities, turning convenient nonstop flights into multihour layovers, based on schedule analysis by Simple Flying.
The loss of direct connections, however, may only be part of the challenge. Competition watchdogs are now examining carrier coordination in the region, warning that shrinking rivalry on key cross-border corridors could leave flyers facing higher ticket prices, according to the Competition Bureau of Canada.
United Airlines cuts 5 routes to Canada
United Airlines has ended five nonstop routes connecting major U.S. hubs to Canadian cities throughout 2026, Simple Flying noted.
The quiet rollbacks span key transborder corridors across both coasts and the Midwest, removing direct capacity on routes where United previously offered exclusive or seasonal nonstop service:
Chicago O’Hare (ORD) to Edmonton (YEG): United served as the sole nonstop operator on this route using Boeing 737-800 aircraft until service concluded in September 2026.
Washington Dulles (IAD) to Calgary (YYC): Flown with a mix of Boeing 737-800 and 737 MAX 8 aircraft, United ended this sole-carrier direct link in September 2026, with no flights scheduled for summer 2027.
Washington Dulles (IAD) to Halifax (YHZ): Operated via regional partner Republic Airways on an Embraer E175, this seasonal East Coast link wrapped up in September 2026.
Los Angeles (LAX) to Toronto Pearson (YYZ): Flown on Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft, United ceased operating this transcontinental corridor in September 2026, leaving the market covered by Air Canada and Porter Airlines.
Newark Liberty (EWR) to Vancouver (YVR): The cross-country route, which used a combination of Boeing 737-900 and MAX 9 aircraft, concluded in October 2026, leaving Air Canada as the remaining nonstop operator on the Newark–Vancouver route.
United Airlines has ended five nonstop routes connecting major U.S. hubs to Canadian cities.CHUYN / Getty Images
Regulators sound the alarm over higher fares
Separately from United’s route reductions, Canadian regulators are examining a proposed expansion of the two airlines’ partnership on 10 other cross-border routes.
On Oct. 28, Canada’s federal Competition Bureau warned that deeper commercial coordination between United Airlines and partner Air Canada would likely reduce competition and drive up airfares on critical cross-border corridors.
The two carriers already coordinate pricing and split revenues on many transborder flights under a joint business agreement. However, they are now seeking government approval to lift restrictions on 10 specific routes where coordination had previously been barred under a 2012 consent agreement to protect competition.
“Competition between airlines helps keep fares lower and gives travellers more choice and better service. Our review found that allowing Air Canada and United to coordinate on these routes would likely reduce competition on key Canada-U.S. routes and lead to higher prices for travellers,” stated Interim Commissioner of Competition Jeanne Pratt.
Watchdogs concluded that allowing Air Canada and United to coordinate rather than compete on these city pairs would remove direct rivalry.
Regulators discovered that Air Canada and United together control 100% of all nonstop passenger traffic on five of the affected routes.
With substantial barriers preventing other airlines from launching competing services, the agency warned that the arrangement would likely cost consumers millions of dollars annually.
A persistent chill in U.S.-Canada travel
The route contractions come as airlines manage an uneven post-pandemic recovery in leisure travel between the U.S. and Canada.
That broader slowdown is reshaping where travelers allocate their discretionary budgets. A nationwide consumer survey revealed that 60% of Canadians report being less open to traveling to the U.S. than at any point over the past year.
Almost two-thirds (63%) of those hesitant travelers said they are more likely to travel within Canada instead of choosing other options, according to the Leger Fall 2026 Travel Trends Report.
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South of the border, tourism groups have sounded similar alarms over the decline of their largest source of international visitors. A 10% decline in Canadian visits could result in $2.1 billion in lost U.S. visitor spending and 14,000 fewer supported jobs, The U.S. Travel Association estimated in February 2025.
Airlines operating in the region have responded by systematically pruning cross-border capacity. Earlier this month, WestJet confirmed it was cutting service across 10 U.S. routes after seeing a sustained drop in transborder passenger demand, as reported by TheStreet.
That pullback followed Air Canada’s decision to drop its seasonal Toronto-Charleston service for summer 2027, after seasonal demand failed to rebound, as previously reported by TheStreet’s senior travel reporter Veronika Bondarenko.
What affected travelers should know
For flyers booking these corridors, the loss of direct service means trading convenience for connections.
On routes such as Los Angeles to Toronto or Newark to Vancouver, travelers can still find nonstop options operated by Air Canada and Porter Airlines on the former route and Air Canada on the latter, according to route data from The Aviation Hub.
For city pairs where United was the exclusive nonstop carrier, such as Chicago to Edmonton, passengers must now route through connecting hubs (e.g., Denver or Toronto), adding hours to transit times.
Under U.S. Department of Transportation rules, passengers are entitled to an automatic refund to their original form of payment when an airline cancels a flight to, from, or within the United States or makes a significant change to the itinerary, provided they do not accept alternative travel arrangements or compensation.
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire adds $330 million to a familiar bet
If you’ve ever saved an important note in Evernote, sent a massive file through WeTransfer, or watched a video on Vimeo, you’ve crossed paths with a tech business you may have never heard of.
It’s called Bending Spoons (BSP), and the Italian technology business has spent years buying up familiar digital brands and rebuilding how they generate sales.
Now Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) is putting more money behind it.
Berkshire completed another $330 million investment on October 29, as per MarketScreener, bringing its total commitment to $930 million and its ownership stake to 4%. The new purchase follows a $600 million investment in Bending Spoons’ July stock-market debut, as reported by CNBC.
That’s an unusual-looking bet for Berkshire, considering its preference for stable, predictable businesses, including insurance, railroads, and consumer staples, and its traditionally cautious approach to technology investments. Yet the appeal may be more familiar than it seems.
Bending Spoons isn’t selling the next must-have gadget. It’s looking to make more money from software customers it already knows. And the numbers reveal both the attraction and the risk.
Berkshire Hathaway invested $330 million in Bending Spoons, raising ownership to 4%.Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images
Berkshire Hathaway doubles down on Bending Spoons stock
Berkshire’s growing interest in technology marks a pivotal shift from the era when Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger were at the helm, when the company largely avoided businesses whose competitive advantages were difficult to predict.
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Buffett’s investment in Apple helped change that perception.
“I didn’t go into Apple because it was a tech stock in the least,” Buffett told shareholders at Berkshire’s 2018 annual meeting as reported on by Fortune.
Instead, he focused on Apple’s loyal customers, its ecosystem, and the staying power of its business. That philosophy helps explain Berkshire’s increasingly substantial technology holdings, including Google parent Alphabet.
By June 30, Berkshire owned nearly 106 million Alphabet shares, worth approximately $37.8 billion, an 83% increase in Q2, as reported by Reuters. Alphabet had become its third-largest publicly traded stock holding, behind Apple and American Express.
And Buffett wasn’t merely watching from the sidelines.
In a July CNBC interview, he acknowledged personally initiating Berkshire’s investment in Alphabet.
“I initiated it,” Buffett said, although he clarified that CEO Greg Abel now has final investment authority.
Buffett also described his preference for “businesses that are going to earn high returns on capital for an extended period of time.”
Bending Spoons offers an interesting variation on that philosophy.
Instead of betting on the next technological breakthrough, the company buys established software businesses, improves their operations, and seeks to reinvest the proceeds into additional acquisitions.
CEO Luca Ferrari says Berkshire’s latest investment will help finance more attractive deals, although Berkshire hasn’t publicly explained its specific reasoning for increasing its stake.
Moreover, Bending Spoons takes a more hands-on approach, often changing prices, products, and staffing, which could help Bending Spoons make more money from well-known software brands, but there’s a risk. Customers may not like the changes and could eventually stop using those services.
Berkshire Hathaway’s biggest stock bets
Apple (AAPL): $65.95 billion, representing 22.04% of its stock portfolio.
American Express (AXP): $51.28 billion, representing 17.14%.
Coca-Cola (KO): $32.51 billion, representing 10.86%.
Alphabet (GOOGL): $28.16 billion, representing 9.41% in Class A shares.
Bank of America (BAC): $27.54 billion, representing 9.20%.
Bending Spoons (BSP): Berkshire has invested $930 million in total, including its latest $330 million investment, bringing its ownership to 4%. This is ownership of the company, not a percentage of Berkshire’s stock portfolio.Sources: Berkshire Hathaway’s June 30, 2026, SEC 13F and Kiplinger. Bending Spoons figures reflect its October 29 announcement. Portfolio percentages cover disclosed U.S. equities only.
Bending Spoons owns apps that millions already use
As mentioned before, Bending Spoons is behind some of the biggest software services on the web, including the note-taking app Evernote, the file-sharing service WeTransfer, the video platform Vimeo, the ticketing business Eventbrite, and the workplace tools Airtable and Miro.
It buys established software businesses, overhauls their operations, and holds on to them rather than sell them for a quick profit.
There’s tremendous value in the customers those acquisitions bring. Bending Spoons reported more than 500 million monthly active users and over 9 million monthly paying customers. Subscriptions accounted for 84% of Q1 2026 revenue, while customers who had subscribed for at least five years generated 48%. That said, no single customer accounted for more than 1% of sales.
Evernote shows how the strategy works. According to Bending Spoons’ regulatory filings, the average customer had used the note-taking service for 7.2 years at the time of acquisition. The company subsequently changed pricing, rebuilt parts of the product, and reduced staffing dedicated to Evernote from 341 full-time-equivalent positions to 60 by the end of 2024.
It also released more than 150 Evernote updates in 2025. By then, average revenue per monthly active user was 2.5 times its 2022 level. But higher subscription prices have also drawn criticism, showing the risk of pushing loyal customers too far.
The financial results show both the attraction and the challenge. Q2 sales climbed 126% to $704 million, while operating income rose 139% to $240 million. Organic revenue growth, however, was just 3%.
Acquisitions explain much of the difference. The question for investors is whether Bending Spoons can continue to find attractive deals while persuading existing customers to stay and pay more.
Berkshire’s familiar bet faces a new test
Bending Spoons is testing how far its acquisition strategy can go, but scooping up companies and growing its customers is only the first step. The company priced $1.8 billion in senior secured notes, with interest rates of 9.625% on the dollar tranche and 8.625% on the euro tranche. Those financing costs raise the bar for what acquisitions must earn.
The same applies to products. Higher subscription prices can boost revenue per customer, but changes that push longtime users away could weaken the cash flows that make these brands attractive.
It’s a familiar question for Berkshire shareholders. Buffett has emphasized finding businesses capable of earning high returns on capital over long periods. Bending Spoons still has to prove its acquisition machine can deliver that consistently.
Investors should look beyond headline revenue growth to organic sales, subscriber retention, operating margins, debt levels, and earnings per share. If those measures strengthen together, Berkshire’s stake could look prescient.
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This Inflation-Busting Bond Rate Just Hit a 20-Year High
Series I Savings Bonds, aka I bonds, haven’t been this attractive for 20 years, and that’s great news if you’re looking for a safe way to beat inflation.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury set the new combined rate for I bonds to 5.51% on Friday, up from the previous rate of 4.26%. The new rate of return is in effect for all I bonds purchased until the end of April 2027.
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The 1.25-point increase stems from elevated inflation over the past six months largely due to the war in Iran. The government-issued bonds are specifically designed to protect your savings from inflation, hence the “I” in I bonds. So when inflation increases, so do I bond rates.
This namesake perk is possible because the headline earnings rate is a combination of two separate rates.
At 5.51%, the new combined rate is the highest since November 2022. At the height of the pandemic-era inflation crisis, I bond rates hit 9.62% for the first time ever. While overall rates have since come down, the I bond’s lesser-known fixed rate now sits at 1.4%, which it has not reached since November 2006.
The fixed rate helps ensure the bond outperforms inflation over its entire 30-year term, or until you redeem it. In other words, with the new fixed rate, you can now safely beat inflation by 1.4% each year for up to three decades.
I bonds have an annual purchase limit of $10,000, and the funds cannot be withdrawn for the first year. Withdrawals within five years incur a three-month interest penalty.
What to know about new I bond rates
The new 5.51% rate is known as the combined or composite rate. This rate of return is guaranteed for six months as long as you make the purchase before the end of April 2027. The six-month clock starts the month you buy.
The combined rate has two key parts.
One rate changes every six months based on inflation trends during that period; it’s called the variable rate. This rate is predictable because it is always determined by inflation over the preceding six months, or in this case, from March to September.
The other, lesser-known rate is called the fixed rate. It is locked in for the life of the bond and is set directly by the Treasury Department, which has not publicly detailed exactly how it determines the rate. As mentioned, the fixed rate announced Friday is now 1.4%, the highest in 20 years, making I bonds a particularly attractive investment for anyone worried about inflation.
Combined, these rates are annualized to reach 5.51% — a solid return for any investment right now, let alone one that can guarantee outperforming inflation for 30 years.
“The key thing about I bonds is that they are an extremely safe investment, can never go down in value, allow deferral of federal taxes until redemption and have a flexible date for redemption,” David Enna, founder of an I bond-tracking site TIPS Watch, previously told Money. “They are a very good investment to use as a safe secondary emergency fund.”
Not every I bond is created equal, however, and the fixed rate is the reason why.
In 2022, when I bond rates exceeded 9%, the inflation-based variable rate was doing all of the lifting. The fixed rate was 0%. While the variable rate for bonds purchased back then is still keeping up with inflation, the fixed rate remains 0%.
As a result, the folks who still hold I bonds with a 0% fixed rate are now be earning less than the newly announced combined rate on those bonds. Their return is currently 4.08%.
On the other hand, those who purchased I bonds in May 2000 — when the fixed rate was at an all-time high of 3.6% — are now earning a whopping 7.75%.
When to buy I bonds
In addition to their inflation-hedging perks, I bonds have a unique purchase window. While rates change every six months in May and October, earnings are guaranteed for six months regardless of when you make the purchase.
To lock in the 5.51% rate for six months, you simply need to buy I bonds at any time before the end of April 2027. The bonds are only purchasable through TreasuryDirect.gov.
In effect, waiting until April 2027 would mean your six month earning window runs from April to October 2027, and then the bond’s variable rate would tick over to whatever rate gets announced in May 2027 while maintaining the 1.4% fixed rate.
When purchasing I bonds, keep in mind the annual purchase cap and withdrawal limitations.
The $10,000 annual cap resets with the calendar year, meaning folks who already hit the limit for 2026 will need to wait until January to buy more, but they will still have time to lock in the new 5.51% rate in 2027.
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Gold plunges, but UBS isn’t budging on its price target
An investor (like many of my friends) who had put $10,000 into gold at its January high wasn’t chasing the next AI stock.
The idea was pretty simple: Protect savings from inflation, international conflict, and whatever Wall Street might do next.
By Oct. 30, that $10,000 will have shrunk to about $7,140 after costs are deducted. Gold had dropped by around 29% from its record high, even as the headlines offered plenty of reasons to seek safety.
That’s exactly what makes UBS’s latest comments so striking.
Instead of retreating from its earlier forecast, the Swiss bank is doubling down on the possibility of $5,000 gold in 2027. It sees an even higher price later that year.
However, the big caveat is that higher interest rates usually weigh on gold, and the Federal Reserve’s latest signals suggest investors may have to live with them longer.
So the decision facing gold investors isn’t simply whether to buy the dip. It’s whether the case for holding gold has changed.
UBS doubles down on $5,000 gold, despite steep sell-off
Gold’s latest pullback has put a remarkable reversal in perspective.
After gaining around 64% in 2025, the bullion surged to around $5,595 an ounce in January before losing momentum, Reuters noted. On Oct. 30, it dipped below $4,000, leaving it about 29% below that high and down roughly 7% for the year.
For most, that seems like reason enough to reassess an optimistic forecast. However, UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo sees an opportunity instead.
In comments reported by Reuters, Staunovo reiterated that gold could reach $5,000 or more in 2027, roughly 25% above the $4,000 level. And the Swiss bank’s longer-term forecast is more ambitious: $5,400 by September 2027, implying about 35% upside.
It’s important to note that UBS first laid out a $5,000 outlook in August and maintained its bullish view through October, including as prices approached the $4,000 mark.
“In our view, price pullbacks toward USD 4,000/oz offer opportunities to add exposure,” Staunovo wrote on Oct. 23.
The doubling down is particularly striking because gold is behaving unusually for an asset that investors often turn to during uncertainty.
Inflation remains uncomfortable, crude oil is expensive, and geopolitical risks haven’t disappeared. Those developments could ordinarily encourage demand for a traditional store of value.
Yet gold has fallen because its appeal is competing with another powerful force. The prospect of higher interest rates makes income-producing investments more attractive.
Even a move to $5,400 would leave gold below January’s record, underscoring the depth of the sell-off.
That said, the next big question is whether the Federal Reserve will give gold room to recover or make its climb harder.
Gold slipped below $4,000 as UBS reiterated its $5,000 forecast for 2027.JUNG YEON-JE / Getty Images
The Fed creates major obstacle for gold’s recovery
The Federal Reserve’s latest decision shows why UBS’s $5,000 prediction faces a difficult path.
On Oct. 28, the Fed left rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4%, but two of its 12 voting members, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, preferred an immediate quarter-point increase, as inflation remains elevated.
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The numbers support that concern. September’s Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% from a year earlier, accelerating from 3.4% in August. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in one month, accounting for more than half the overall monthly increase. The Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge also climbed to 3.6% annually, from 3.4%.
At the same time, though, the economy isn’t showing any imminent contraction. Q3 GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate, although September’s inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat. That leaves policymakers balancing stubborn inflation against signs that household demand may be losing momentum.
For gold, the trouble is straightforward. Bullion doesn’t pay interest. When inflation keeps the Fed hawkish, Treasury yields can rise, increasing the appeal of income-generating assets. Higher yields can also strengthen the dollar, adding pressure to gold prices.
The most striking contradiction comes from UBS itself.
“We expect rate hikes in December 2026 and March 2027,” the bank wrote on Oct. 26, even while its gold strategists maintained the possibility of $5,000 bullion in 2027.
UBS is therefore betting that longer-term demand will eventually outweigh the near-term drag from interest rates. Whether that happens remains uncertain.
Why UBS believes gold can still reach $5,000
UBS’s confidence rests less on the next Fed meeting than on those who keep buying gold.
Central banks purchased 289 tonnes in the second quarter, up 62% from a year earlier, according to the World Gold Council as cited by Biggo.
Gold-backed ETFs attracted a record $31 billion in Q3, even as prices weakened in September. Behind that demand are concerns about government debt, currency purchasing power, and reliance on dollar reserves.
UBS isn’t alone. Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 by the end of 2027, while JPMorgan’s earlier outlook envisioned $6,300.
Still, a Reuters survey of 30 analysts and traders puts the median average gold price for 2027 at $4,650, below UBS’s $5,400 target for September. That said, those horizons aren’t directly comparable.
For UBS’s forecast to hold, central-bank and fund buying must remain strong, inflation needs to moderate, and Treasury yields and the dollar may have to ease. Aggressive Fed tightening could delay that recovery.
Investors should watch December’s Fed decision, real yields, dollar strength, and fund flows. The critical question isn’t whether $5,000 sounds achievable, but whether demand can withstand higher rates long enough to get there.
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Historic T-Mobile merger worth billions put on ice
T-Mobile has been contemplating a billion-dollar merger that would have made it the world’s largest telecom company; however, these plans have reportedly faltered.
The carrier has already made several notable mergers and acquisitions in recent years to gain a competitive edge in the telecom market.
In 2020, it merged with Sprint in a $26 billion deal. Four years later, T-Mobile paid up to $1.35 billion to acquire Ka’ena Corporation, the parent company of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) Mint Mobile, Ultra Mobile, and Plum.
More recently, T-Mobile acquired US Cellular’s wireless operations for $4.3 billion in August 2025.
T-Mobile-Deutsche Telekom merger gets shelved
T-Mobile was reportedly considering a merger with its parent company, Deutsche Telekom, over the past few months, but the deal has stalled, according to a recent Bloomberg report.
Deutsche Telekom has paused plans to submit a formal bid to merge with T-Mobile, partially due to opposition from its works council. However, Deutsche Telekom could still opt to move forward with an offer at a later date.
T-Mobile has a market value of about $157 billion after its shares declined by almost 30% this year. Deutsche Telekom has a market cap of about €122.93 billion (or $137.21 billion).
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Currently, Deutsche Telekom holds a stake of more than 50% in T-Mobile, and a full merger, which is valued at $300 billion, would have created the world’s biggest telecom operator. It also would be the largest public merger ever.
The pause in the potential merger comes after the move reportedly drew criticism from activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which holds a stake in Deutsche Telekom, according to a Reuters report in September.
The group reportedly urged Deutsche Telekom to drop its plans to merge with T-Mobile and instead focus on shareholder returns.
It is no surprise that both companies were considering a merger, as more telecom operators across the U.S. have recently been joining forces.
A report from consulting firm PwC in June found that 58 U.S. telecom deals were completed through the first and second quarters of 2026.
PwC attributed the heightened deal activity to growing consolidation among fiber operators, increased bundling of wireless and broadband services from telecom providers, and rising demand for high-capacity networks capable of handling artificial intelligence workloads.
A proposed merger between T-Mobile and Deutsche Telekom has stalled. Bloomberg / Getty Images
Former T-Mobile CEO prepares to leave the company
As the potential Deutsche Telekom-T-Mobile merger hits a snag, T-Mobile is continuing to make significant executive leadership changes.
According to an Oct. 26 SEC filing, former T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert is resigning from the company’s board of directors as vice chair and as a member.
The change takes effect on Nov. 1, as previously planned when he joined the board. The filing states that the “resignation is not the result of any disagreement with the company on any matter relating to its operations, policies or practices.”
Sievert joined T-Mobile in 2012 and became vice chair of the company’s board in November 2025 after resigning as CEO that same month. He first became CEO of T-Mobile in April 2020, and Srini Gopalan took over the position on Nov. 1, 2025.
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Sievert’s resignation from the board follows several notable departures from T-Mobile’s top leadership over the past year. For instance, Callie Field left her role as president of T-Mobile’s business group in September 2025 after 21 years with the company.
In July this year, Mike Katz departed as T-Mobile’s chief business and product officer after 28 years. He will remain with the company as a strategic advisor through December.
T-Mobile’s recent leadership shakeups and reported merger talks with Deutsche Telekom have previously sparked concern among analysts.
In August, Wolfe Research downgraded T-Mobile’s stock rating from outperform (indicating expected performance above the broader market) to peer perform (signaling expectations that the stock will perform in line with industry peers).
Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino said in a note that his firm expects T-Mobile’s revenue growth to be hindered by increased competition and recent investments, according to an Investing.com report.
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