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Average mortgage rates today

Mortgage Type
Label
Rate
APR

30-Year Fixed
Most Popular
6.78%
6.82%

30-Year FHA
Lower Credit
6.27%
7.48%

30-Year VA
Military
6.34%
6.5%

30-Year Jumbo
High Balance
6.87%
6.89%

15-Year Fixed
Shorter Term
6.1%
6.18%

7/6 ARM
Shorter Term
6.43%
6.5%

HELOC
Home Equity
8.03%
8.03%

Home Equity Loan
Home Equity
8.14%
8.14%

Updated on 09/10/2026

Rate data provided by RateUpdate.com. Displayed by Mortgage Research Center, LLC, NMLS# 1907, Equal Housing Opportunity, Payments do not include taxes or insurance premiums. Actual payments will be greater with taxes and insurance included. Rate and Product details

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan jumped to 6.82%, up 0.09 percentage points. Yields on the 10-year Treasury bond increased to their highest level since 2023, pushing mortgage rates higher as well.
Key mortgage rate averages:

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.82% APR
The 30-year fixed-rate FHA mortgage averaged 7.48% APR
The 30-year fixed-rate VA mortgage averaged 6.5% APR
The 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgage averaged 6.89% APR
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.18% APR
The 7/6 adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 6.5% APR
The rate on a HELOC averaged 8.03% APR
The rate on a home equity loan averaged 8.14% APR

Mortgage rate trends
Mortgage rates are edging higher as the Iran War escalates, pushing oil prices up and raising concerns about higher consumer prices. Rising national debt is also putting upward pressure on Treasury yields, despite efforts by the U.S. Treasury Department to lower bond prices.
Housing experts now expect mortgage rates to remain elevated through the rest of the year. Zillow has increased its year-end rate forecast to 6.7%. In a recent report, Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, says that the mortgage math for prospective buyers is harder now than it was a few months ago.
“For many households, gains in housing affordability are quickly offset by living expenses — with CPI inflation rising faster than wages, there’s little breathing room left in budgets,” Ng notes.
Which loan is best for you?
When shopping for a mortgage, you may be offered several loan options to meet different needs. Here’s a rundown of the most common loan types you’ll find, and who they work best for.
30-year conventional mortgage: Conventional loans work best for borrowers who have a credit score above 620, have saved enough to make a down payment of at least 3% and are looking for flexibility in the type of property being purchased.
30-year Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage: FHA loans are good for first-time homebuyers, borrowers with less-than-perfect credit scores or those with a high debt-to-income ratio.
30-year U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) loan: Specifically designed for active-duty and retired service members, members of the National Guard and Reserves, and surviving spouses. Offers 0% down loan options, competitive rates and accepts less-than-perfect credit scores.
30-year jumbo loan: Good for homebuyers purchasing property that is priced above the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) conforming loan limit. In 2026, that limit is $832,750 in most of the U.S. but increases to $1,249,125 in high-cost areas.
15-year fixed-rate loan: Borrowers who prefer a shorter loan term and can afford to make higher monthly payments will pay less overall interest with a 15-year mortgage and pay off the loan faster.
7/6 adjustable rate loan: Good for a buyer who wants to lock in a favorable interest rate for a set period of time and either plans on selling the home before the interest rate starts, is willing to make a higher monthly payment once the rate becomes variable or is open to refinancing the loan.
Home equity line of credit (HELOC): A good option for a homeowner who wants to access the equity they’ve accumulated in their home and have an open line of credit to use as needed.
Home equity loan: Another option for a homeowner who wants to access their home equity and have the financial capacity to take on a second mortgage.

How mortgage rates affect affordability
The rate on your mortgage can make a big difference in how much home you can afford and the size of your monthly payments. That’s true whether buying your primary residence, an investment property or refinancing an existing loan.
Here’s an example. If you bought a $250,000 home and made a 20% down payment of $50,000, you would end up with a starting loan balance of $200,000. On a $200,000 home loan with a fixed rate for 30 years, here’s what you would pay:

At a 3% interest rate = $843 in monthly payments (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)
At a 4% interest rate = $955 in monthly payments (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)
At a 6% interest rate = $1,199 in monthly payments (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)
At an 8% interest rate = $1,468 in monthly payments (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)

Experimenting with a mortgage calculator allows you to find out how much a lower rate or other changes could impact what you pay. A home affordability calculator can also estimate the maximum loan amount you may qualify for based on your income, debt-to-income ratio, mortgage interest rate and other variables. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau can also provide a range of rates lenders offer in each state.

Current mortgage rates FAQs
What is a 30-year mortgage rate right now?
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.82% as of September 10, according to Money’s rate data. Other rate surveys show 30-year rates averaging over 6.8%.
Can you get a 4% mortgage rate?
No, not under current market conditions. A 30-year fixed-rate loan averages the mid-to-high 6% range as of September 10.
Will we ever see a 3% mortgage rate again?
Mortgage rates are unlikely to fall below 3% in the near term unless a severe economic downturn occurs. However, rates averaged in the mid-3% range before the pandemic, so a return to that range at some point in the future is not out of the question.
How much is a $300,000 mortgage at 7%?
The monthly payment on a 30-year, $300,000 conventional mortgage at 7% is $1,995.91, excluding taxes, insurance and HOA fees. Your actual payment will vary depending on your credit score, down payment, lender and location, among other factors.

About 2.09 million Americans collect Social Security on their spouse’s work record. Their average monthly benefit is $987. That number has been creeping upward for years, but has been just shy of $1,000 for quite some time. The 2027 COLA could be the one that pushes the number there.

Analysts are projecting the annual cost-of-living adjustment at 3.4% to 3.6%, which would add somewhere between $33 and $36 to the average spousal benefit. At 3.6%, the average would climb to about $1,023 , crossing $1,000 for the first time, according to FinanceBuzz. The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2027 COLA on October 14.

How the spousal benefit stacks up against what workers get

To understand why $987 feels tight, look at what workers themselves get. The average retired worker collected about $2,086 a month in July 2026, according to SSA data. Spouses get less than half of that. The math behind spousal benefits caps payments at 50% of the working spouse’s benefit at their full retirement age.

A spousal benefit tops out at 50% of what the working spouse would receive at their full retirement age, and only if you wait until your own full retirement age to file. Claiming earlier reduces that amount.

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Your specific gain depends on what you currently collect. At 3.6%, a $1,000 monthly benefit goes up about $36. A $600 benefit gains about $22. The percentage is the same for everyone.

Some spousal beneficiaries already collect more than $1,000 a month. Others will still be below $1,000 even after the adjustment. Whether the milestone applies to your check depends entirely on where you are starting from.

The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group that tracks Social Security closely, is projecting the 2027 COLA at 3.6%, according to CNBC. AARP puts it at 3.5%. The final number comes from third-quarter inflation data and gets announced in October.

What you need to know about how spousal benefits work

To collect on your spouse’s record, they need to have already filed for their own retirement benefit. You also need to be at least 62. Filing at 62 rather than your full retirement age cuts the payment permanently, by as much as 35%.

One thing a lot of people do not know: waiting past your own full retirement age does not get you anything extra on a spousal benefit. Delayed-retirement credits only grow benefits tied to your own earnings. A spousal benefit stops growing at full retirement age. Filing late does not help.

Social Security gives you one check. If your own retirement benefit would be larger than what you would get as a spouse, the program pays you the higher amount. You do not get both.

Divorced spouses can qualify too, as long as the marriage lasted at least 10 years and you have not remarried, according to the SSA. A divorced spouse’s benefit comes from the same earnings record but does not reduce what your ex or their current spouse receives.

Divorced spouses can qualify too, as long as the marriage lasted at least 10 years and you have not remarried.Zinkevych / Getty Images

Why the raise may feel smaller than it looks

The COLA adds to a recipient’s gross benefit. What hits your account is a different number. Medicare Part B premiums are projected to rise by $6.60 a month in 2027, FinanceBuzz reported. Most people have Part B pulled directly from their Social Security payment. A $36 gain can shrink to about $29 after that deduction.

Taxes take a bite too. If your combined income tops $25,000 for a single filer or $32,000 for married filing jointly, part of your Social Security benefit becomes taxable, according to the SSA. That threshold includes adjusted gross income, tax-exempt interest and half of your Social Security payment. A small check increase could move some households closer to that line.

And the COLA is built to track inflation, not beat it. When food, rent and medical costs go up faster than the adjustment, your real buying power drops anyway. That has been happening for a lot of retirees over the past few years.

What couples should sort out before filing

Before you file for a spousal benefit, look at your own earnings record. If your own retirement benefit at full retirement age is more than 50% of your partner’s primary insurance amount, file on your own record instead.

Survivor benefits are worth factoring in too. If your spouse passes away first, you may be eligible for up to 100% of their benefit at your full retirement age. The bigger their benefit when they die, the bigger your potential survivor check. A spouse who delays their own claim is also building a larger survivor floor for you if you outlive them.

You can see your estimated benefit at different claiming ages at ssa.gov. Pulling up both your record and your partner’s before anyone files helps you figure out which strategy works better for your household.

Related: 2027 Social Security COLA could see a larger increase

With oil above $100 a barrel, interest rates elevated, and the Federal Reserve potentially poised to raise rates, it is easy to see an S&P 500 near record highs as a market asking investors to take on too much risk.

Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, sees a different problem for long-term, buy-and-hold investors: moving to the sidelines to avoid a pullback and then missing the rebound. He spoke with TheStreet’s Caroline Woods to explain his concern and discuss how he thinks smart investors should navigate current market conditions.

Mahn’s case is not that volatility has disappeared. He expects it to persist as the Iran War, the Strait of Hormuz, inflation reports, and U.S. midterm elections keep investors on edge. His approach is to remain invested, stay diversified according to risk tolerance, and make selective decisions with new money rather than trying to predict the market’s next down day.

Mahn’s view comes with clear limits. He says a sustained move in oil above $120 a barrel or a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% would make him more concerned about the economic backdrop. Those are conditions he believes could pressure consumers, complicate the Federal Reserve’s choices, and turn intermittent declines into a more serious correction.

Here is how Mahn separates normal volatility from a changing market outlook.

Why missing a few market days can hurt long-term returns

The strongest part of Mahn’s argument against holding cash for an unspecified future dip is the asymmetry of market timing.

An investor who sells before a decline must make two good decisions: when to exit and when to return. The timing of an investor’s return can be especially difficult because the market’s strongest days may arrive during periods that still feel unsettling.

“We looked at the last 20 years worth of data. And what we found was that if an investor missed out on just the 10 best days in the market over those 20 years, their returns were cut in half. If they missed out on the best 30 days, their returns were reduced by 84%.”

—Kevin Mahn, when asked whether it was still safe to put cash to work at current market levels

Mahn’s point is counterintuitive because avoiding losses sounds prudent when headlines are worsening. Yet selling during a decline can mean an investor is absent when buyers return.

He also said that historically, the best days tend to follow the worst days. That historical observation does not guarantee that every selloff will reverse quickly, but it explains why he treats broad market timing as a high hurdle rather than a defensive default.

Mahn isn’t alone in this line of thinking. According to Hartford Funds, 48% of the S&P 500’s best days between 1996 and 2025 occurred during bear markets, or periods when stocks were broadly declining.

For long-term, buy-and-hold investors, staying invested does not mean ignoring risk. Mahn suggests holding a diversified portfolio that fits the investor’s risk tolerance and adjusting it when circumstances justify a change. Diversification means spreading investments across individual holdings and broader categories so that a single company, sector, or market event does not determine your whole portfolio’s outcome.

Why emergency cash and market-timing cash serve different purposes

Mahn draws an important distinction between maintaining emergency savings and keeping a large cash balance in a portfolio because an investor expects stocks to fall. He said an emergency fund can be appropriate for unexpected personal circumstances, suggesting about six months of earnings in cash for that purpose. That money is intended to cover a household need, not to make a tactical bet on the next market move.

Cash held in a brokerage account specifically to buy stocks at lower levels serves another purpose entirely. Mahn acknowledges that an investor who already has cash may choose to deploy some of it after a substantial pullback. But he cautions that no one knows when the lower level will arrive. The practical question is whether the cash has a defined job in a financial plan or has become an open-ended wager that a better entry point must appear.

That distinction matters because an emergency reserve can prevent an investor from having to sell investments during a personal crisis. A large tactical cash position, by contrast, can leave an investor underinvested if markets recover before the hoped-for decline occurs.

Mahn’s comments support a process in which a household first establishes the liquidity it needs, then decides how much market exposure fits its goals and capacity for losses.

How oil prices and Treasury yields could change Mahn’s outlook

Mahn is bullish over the long term, but he is not treating every risk as harmless. He said he would start to worry more if oil rose above $120 a barrel or if the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5%.

The 10-year Treasury yield is the annual return investors demand to hold a 10-year U.S. government bond, and it is a widely watched benchmark for borrowing costs and valuation pressure across financial markets.

His reasoning on oil runs through the consumer. If oil remains above $120 a barrel for an extended period, he said, consumers could have less money available for other spending because gasoline costs take a larger share of household budgets.

Related: Peter Schiff’s case for more gold & foreign stocks (& less U.S. tech) in your portfolio

Mahn noted that consumers account for 70% of U.S. economic growth, so reduced spending could slow the economy. At the same time, persistent inflation could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates.

Mahn’s concern about higher Treasury yields is related but distinct. A sharp increase in yields can tighten financial conditions, raising the hurdle for businesses and consumers that need credit.

He said a single 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike, equal to one-quarter of a percentage point, would not by itself alter his strategy because markets may already be prepared for it. Repeated rate hikes or unexpectedly hawkish guidance, however, could change how he allocates money.

“The markets can absorb a 25 basis point rate hike. The markets are already absorbing where yields are right now.”

—Kevin Mahn, when asked whether stocks could move higher if the Federal Reserve raises rates

Mahn’s distinction is useful for investors who are tempted to treat any Federal Reserve hike as an automatic sell signal. A rate decision matters in context: whether it was expected, whether it changes expectations for later meetings, how bond yields respond, and whether inflation and economic activity are deteriorating.

His view is an opinion about the current setup, not a promise that stocks will rise after a hike.

How Kevin Mahn identifies a more serious stock-market decline

A down day alone does not persuade Mahn that a lasting correction has begun. He expects periods when stocks decline, recover part of the loss as buyers step in, and then weaken again as geopolitical tension, oil prices, or uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy returns. In his view, that pattern can characterize a volatile market without necessarily signaling a prolonged downturn.

The pattern that would concern him more is two to three consecutive days of significant pullbacks, with each decline in a range of 1.5% to 2%, and with no buyers arriving to purchase the dip. He described that as evidence that money is not coming off the sidelines to support prices.

It’s important to note that Mahn did not present this signal as a guaranteed forecasting tool. Instead, it is just one market-behavior indicator he watches alongside oil, yields, inflation, and earnings growth.

The phrase “buy the dip” also needs a limit. Buying a dip means adding money after a price decline in the expectation that a long-term investment case remains intact. It should not mean buying every falling stock automatically.

A diversified investor can use a planned schedule for contributions or rebalancing, while a more active investor needs to consider whether an individual position still fits their portfolio strategy and whether the risk of further losses is acceptable before adding exposure.

Why AI infrastructure and utilities fit Mahn’s current strategy

Mahn says he continues to follow spending connected to artificial intelligence infrastructure, the physical and digital systems required to build and run artificial intelligence tools. He pointed to Nvidia as a central company in that ecosystem and described demand for power, water solutions, aerospace and defense, and health care as related areas of opportunity.

His stock preferences are expressions of his investment view, rather than a list that will fit every investor.

His case for utilities is especially notable because the sector is often viewed mainly as a defensive place to seek dividends when markets become volatile. Mahn also sees utilities as a potential indirect beneficiary of artificial intelligence infrastructure because data centers require electricity. He said utilities have become more attractive after underperforming and sitting roughly flat, compared with their stronger performance in the prior year.

“Utilities historically have held up well in the face of volatility. They generally pay good dividends to combat these higher bond yields right now, and they’ve also become a backdoor play into the AI revolution.”

—Kevin Mahn, when asked where investors should look after oil approached $100 a barrel

Mahn mentioned the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund, known by its ticker XLU, as one way to gain diversified utility exposure. He also cited American Electric Power and said investors should consider utilities with nuclear generation, which he believes could become more important as electricity demand rises.

The trade-off is that a utility allocation is still an investment in stocks, not a substitute for a cash reserve or a guarantee against losses. Dividend payments can change, interest-rate moves can affect the sector, and the expected increase in artificial intelligence-related electricity demand may not benefit every company equally. Investors considering a sector position need to decide whether they want a broad fund, a smaller selection of individual companies, or no added concentration at all.

How bonds can help when yields are high

Mahn also sees an opening in bonds after yields rose. Bond prices and yields generally move in opposite directions: When yields rise, the prices of existing bonds typically fall, and when yields decline, their prices typically rise. That relationship can make newly lower bond prices more appealing to investors who expect yields to eventually come back down.

He said bonds could offer both potential total return, meaning price change plus interest income, and a coupon stream, the regular interest payments a bondholder receives throughout its term.

Related: S&P 500 investors may be more exposed to the AI trade than they think

The opportunity here rests partially on his view that yields will eventually decline. If yields rise further, existing bond prices can continue to fall, particularly for bonds with longer maturities. Bond investors, therefore, need to match the amount of interest-rate risk they take to the role bonds play in their broader portfolio.

For a long-term, buy-and-hold investor, that may mean considering whether higher yields improve the case for keeping bonds as part of a diversified allocation rather than treating bonds solely as a bet on the next Federal Reserve decision.

Mahn’s broader message is consistent across stocks and bonds: The current backdrop may offer opportunities, but the portfolio should be built around timeline, goals, and risk tolerance rather than a single headline.

The takeaway for S&P 500 investors during volatility

Mahn expects more short-term volatility and believes oil, yields, inflation, and the U.S. midterm elections could continue to keep markets unsettled.

His central warning is behavioral: Fear can push investors to abandon a longer-term plan at the moment when uncertainty is greatest and re-entry is hardest. His central caveat is equally important: A market outlook should be revisited if the evidence changes, particularly if oil stays above $120 a barrel or the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5%.

A useful decision procedure starts with purpose. Keep emergency money separate from investment money. Confirm that your portfolio’s mix of stocks, bonds, and cash fits your time horizon and ability to handle declines.

For new money, consider using a disciplined contribution or rebalancing plan (like dollar-cost averaging) instead of making an all-or-nothing call on the next market move. Then review whether a specific holding still has an investment case before adding to it after a decline.

This approach will not remove market risk, and it will not ensure that every dip becomes a buying opportunity. It does, however, address the risk Mahn emphasized: allowing an expected period of volatility to turn into an unplanned exit from a long-term investment strategy.

Disclaimer: Mahn’s comments reflect his own market outlook and investment preferences. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, time horizon, diversification, and risk tolerance before acting on any market or sector view.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate’s front-month contracts edged lower on reports of plans for diplomatic talks between Gulf states.

“Several of Oracle’s bear cases were addressed head on” in the latest earnings report, according to an analyst.

Back in the late 70s and early 1980s, my small town had a mom-and-pop convenience store, Paul’s Market, as well as one location of a regional chain, Richdale’s. It later added a store from a larger chain, White Hen Pantry.

7-Eleven and other large chains existed, but local stores, even one-offs, were common. Now, just over the past few years, a number of bigger players have swallowed up some smaller chains.

The banner retirements are real and named, according to data from NACS Magazine.

GetGo was sold to Circle K, Redwood Markets went to Jacksons (24 stores, California), and Maverick bought the Kum & Go Brand, which included about 400 locations. In all three cases, the name changes were gradual as stores got remodeled, but in the end, the classic names disappeared.

Now, the same thing has happened again as Casey’s has begun the process of removing the CEFCO name from the 198 stores it added when it bought the rival chain in 2024.

Casey’s is ending the CEFCO name

Casey’s, which operated 2,959 stores as of July 31, 2026, in 19 states, according to a recent SEC Filing, purchased Fikes Wholesale, Inc., owner of CEFCO Convenience Stores, in an all-cash transaction for $1.145 billion. The purchase price includes tax benefits valued at approximately $165 million for a net after-tax purchase price of $980 million, according to a press release.

Since the transaction closed, Casey’s has been remodeling CEFCO stores, then rebranding them under the Casey’s banner.

Casey’s CEO Darren Rebelez talked about the ongoing remodeling and renaming process during the company’s first-quarter earnings call.

“The stores that have been already remodeled to Casey’s in prior periods have performed exceptionally well, and we expect to remodel Cefco stores throughout the fiscal year,” he said.

Rebelez shared the progress on the transition.

“During fiscal year 26, we remodeled approximately 50 Cefco stores to Casey’s. In the first quarter of fiscal year 27, we have remodeled 24 more stores, We are extremely excited about the results we are seeing, as the average PFMDB lift at the stores that were remodeled to 30% versus its results of the same period prior to remodel,” he added.

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The ongoing remodeling, he noted, has not stopped Casey’s from adding new stores.

“While we are busy with CEFCO conversions, [it] does not stop us from continuing to grow the store base, as we are on track to meet our 120-store unit goal for the fiscal year,” he shared.

Rebelez did not share when the remodels would be completed and the CEFCO name retired.

Casey’s has a unique business model. About 71% of its locations are in towns with fewer than 20,000 people, and roughly half are in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois, according to the SEC filing referenced above.

The chain comes in third by store count behind market leader 7-Eleven (12,700) and Couche-Tarde (7,308), according to CSP Daily News data.

Casey’s store count will soon surpass 3,000.Shutterstock

Convenience-store chains have been consolidating

“The pace of merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. convenience store sector is accelerating, with recent trends suggesting the nation’s c-store landscape is ripe for more change. While most of the transactions in 2024 involved smaller chains or single-store operators, several larger operators inked deals to significantly expand their footprints into new regions,” according to a report from CoBank.

That’s something Rebelez also commented on during Casey’s Q1 earnings call.

“I would say the M&A environment is, is still really good. And that is a reflection of the challenging environment that the industry finds itself in, particularly the small operators. And so it would not say it is changed. I would say it is still consistent, maybe even gotten a little better from a buyer’s perspective,” he said.

Others operating in the space see the same thing.

“There still remains a large number of chains out there in the 10 to 100 store range that, depending on what their long-term strategy is — especially if they’re family-owned businesses — may decide that they want to get out,” Rob Gallo, chief strategy officer for c-store consultancy Impact 21, told CStoreDive.

And while many of these companies have been in the same family for multiple years, their operating challenges have increased.

“It’s just more difficult to manage the chain if you’re a small operator compared to the big guys, especially with the consolidation going on across the country and in many cases, in their backyards,” Jesse Betzner, senior director for Capstone Partners, an investment banking and M&A advisory firm, told CStoreDive.

Besides acquiring CEFCO, Casey’s has bought the 22-site Lone Star Food Stores chain and is in the process of buying the 24-location Pak-A-Sak brand. Some Lone Star locations will be rebranded as Casey’s, but others may retain their original name while being remodeled to match Casey’s on the interior.

No public decision has been made on the Pak-A-Sak brand.

Smaller operators still dominate

There are 151,975 convenience stores in the United States, a slight decrease of 280 stores (0.2%) compared to the year prior, according to the 2026 NACS/NIQ TDLinx Convenience Industry Store Count.

And while it seems as if larger chains dominate, small players still play a signifcant role.

“The industry continues to be dominated by smaller operators. Overall, 95,672 stores are owned by a company that has 10 or fewer stores, 63% of the total store count. Companies operating 500-plus stores own 33,810 stores, or 22.2% of the overall total,” according to NACS data.

In addition to the slight decrease in overall stores, there has also been another meaningful change.

“While the overall store count dipped slightly, the number of convenience stores selling fuel increased by 768 stores (0.6%) to 122,620, the highest number in eight years. Convenience stores sell an estimated 80% of the fuel purchased by consumers in the United States. Overall, 80.7% of convenience stores sell fuel,” added the NACS.

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Artificial intelligence has created an uncomfortable question for companies whose businesses depend on selling information: What happens when AI can find, summarize, and synthesize enormous amounts of data almost instantly?

Bill Ackman seems to believe investors are asking the wrong question. The billionaire’s Pershing Square added ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, to its portfolio, which also included Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, Alcon, and S&P Global.

The ICE investment is especially intriguing, since Ackman is not just counting on additional stock market transactions.

Pershing’s premise is that artificial intelligence may add value to ICE’s exclusive financial data, since most of that data cannot be scraped off the internet and recreated by a chatbot.

ICE CEO Jeff Sprecher has made a very similar case, converting what looks like a legacy financial infrastructure investment into an unanticipated AI bet.

Bill Ackman sees an AI advantage investors may be missing

While ICE is perhaps best known for owning the New York Stock Exchange, it does much more than that.

It runs futures exchanges and clearinghouses and sells fixed income data, analytics, connectivity services, and mortgage technology. That combination is important as financial institutions embrace AI.

AI models can analyze huge volumes of publicly accessible data. But pro investors still require trusted pricing, reference data, and other licensed information that can be tracked back to respectable sources.

This gives rise to a possible scarcity premium around private datasets.

According to a report shared with TheStreet, Sprecher described ICE’s information as data that “cannot be scraped or synthesized.”

Related: Bill Ackman’s surprising $934 million bet after dumping Alphabet

ICE is already developing technology to make that data usable in AI applications, including a Model Context Protocol server that can surface regulated ICE information into customers’ AI processes with the proper rights and audit trails.

The inference is counterintuitive.

AI might commodify information, making it available to everybody. But it might increase the value of private and regulated financial information that is difficult to duplicate.

ICE’s numbers strengthen Ackman’s argument

The underlying company already has the type of recurrent revenue Ackman normally likes.

ICE reported $2.7 billion in second-quarter net revenue, up 5% year over year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share reached $1.90, up 5%.

More importantly for the AI thesis, recurring revenue grew 8% to $1.35 billion.

Fixed Income and Data Services earned $645 million in sales, up 8%, while recurring revenue within the business grew 10% to $531 million. Fixed Income Data and Analytics sales grew 9% itself.

ICE then upped its full-year recurring revenue growth outlook for Fixed Income and Data Services to a range of 7% to 8%.

Meanwhile, the business produced $3.3 billion of operational cash flow through June and $2.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow.

Its board recently raised ICE’s share-repurchase authority to $4 billion starting July 1.

Bill Ackman sees an AI winner hiding in plain sight.Bloomberg / Getty Images

AI could strengthen more than ICE’s data business

There’s another dimension to Ackman’s wager.

AI is also changing how people consume financial information. Financial exchanges may monetize the new marketplaces they are generating.

In July, ICE said it was planning futures with NATIVX linked to GPU compute, treating processing capability as an asset with a price that corporations may want to hedge against.

The contracts would follow tokenized energy-normalized GPU compute pricing, ICE claimed.

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This raises the intriguing possibility that ICE may profit both from the use of AI by financial businesses and from the economic instability that AI technology itself would produce.

The company has also expanded physical infrastructure for automated markets. As demand for low-latency connectivity and computing capacity has increased, ICE has more than doubled colocation capacity at its Mahwah, N.J., data center since 2020.

Ackman’s ICE bet comes with one important risk

But Ackman’s logic doesn’t entail that AI inevitably makes ICE more valuable.

Financial institutions might push prices on data providers. Competing data sets could emerge. And ICE’s mortgage-technology sector has its own issues, apart from artificial intelligence.

The stock also competes with exchange owners CME Group and Nasdaq Inc.

But ICE has something that makes this bet different from many of Wall Street’s more visible AI bets.

You don’t have to build the biggest, most advanced language model. You don’t have to spend tens of billions on GPUs. It owns infrastructure and information that AI systems may increasingly need to access.

That helps explain Ackman’s willingness to purchase when ICE’s value dropped.

Pershing Square has always looked for enduring firms with pricing power, substantial obstacles to entry, and reliable cash creation. ICE’s rising recurring income and proprietary data sets fit within that structure, and AI may possibly add another layer to the moat.

The market has spent a lot of time trying to figure out which firms the AI boom will disrupt.

Ackman’s purchase in ICE poses the opposite question. If AI drives down the cost of easily accessible information, what happens to the cost of information that cannot be simply copied by machines?

The solution might convert what seems to be a defensive financial-data firm into one of Ackman’s most unorthodox bets on AI for the owner of the New York Stock Exchange.

Related: Billionaire Bill Ackman doubles down on these stocks in Q2

The New York Yankees face some competition from the St. Louis Cardinals and others in the sweepstakes for a young international outfielder.

Investors are flocking to theme-based exchange-traded funds again. They’ll probably wish they hadn’t. I’d last written about thematic ETFs back in January 2025. At the time, I’d noted these ETFs had seen poor dollar-weighted returns: The average dollar lost more than 7% per year over the three years ended Nov. 30, 2024—considerably worse than the ETFs’ 1% annual aggregate loss over that span.Why the poor outcome? Investors binged and purged, buying thematic ETFs with abandon in 2020 and 2021—the ETFs hauled in $95 billion those years—and then fleeing from 2022 through late 2024. Those redemptions might have seemed prescient at first, as the average thematic ETF lost 36% in 2022. But they proved costly when the ETFs rallied hard the following years. They’re BackFast forward to now: Thematic ETFs appear to have won back investors, gathering $76 billion in net inflows since 2024, with artificial intelligence, energy transition (think: smart-grid), and security (think: defense tech). Will things turn out differently this time? I doubt it. Consider the most popular ETF theme these days: AI, or in the parlance of our thematic-classification taxonomy, “Artificial Intelligence & Big Data.” Here are the rolling 12-month average returns of ETFs assigned to that theme. These ETFs have been red-hot, routinely generating 20%-plus returns over recent 12-month periods. Investors have noticed and have piled in. Ding, Ding, Ding!That more or less fits the pattern we’ve seen more broadly for thematic ETFs: A narrative takes hold in ways everyday people can relate to and intuit, in this case AI’s potential to transform life as we know it; investors seek confirmation of the story, which they find in standout returns; and then they give chase. Lest you doubt how often investors have chased performance in this fashion, here’s a plot that compares thematic ETFs’ rolling 12-month returns and flows over the decade ended Aug. 31, 2026. Most of the time, inflows coincided with recent gains and outflows with losses. For instance, thematic ETFs raked in $65 billion in net new money over the year ended Jan. 31, 2021, during which the average thematic ETF rose 58%. Conversely, investors yanked $12 billion over the 12 months ended Feb. 28, 2023, when the average ETF lost around 21%. That wouldn’t have been a problem if the performance trend had continued, but too often it reversed, wrong-footing investors. For example, the average thematic ETF lost 13% in the 12 months ended Jan. 31, 2022, right on the heels of the aforementioned $65 billion inflows. Similarly, thematic ETFs gained 14%, on average, in the year ended Feb. 29, 2024, following the $12 billion outflow. You can see the relationship between flows and subsequent returns more clearly in this plot, which compares rolling 12-month flows against the average thematic ETF’s return over the subsequent one-year period. The upper-right (that is, inflows followed by gains) and bottom-left (that is, outflows followed by losses) regions are “good,” while the upper-left (that is, outflows followed by gains) and bottom-right (that is, inflows followed by losses) are “bad.”There was a whole lot more “bad” than “good,” and that’s taken a toll on dollar-weighted returns. While my previous article focused on the three years ended Nov. 30, 2024, I’ve expanded the analysis to cover all trailing periods—ranging from one year to 10 years—ended Aug. 31, 2026. The gap has been narrower over the shorter trailing periods primarily because the themes that have gotten the heaviest flows have kept chugging along. But as you extend the measurement period, the gap between the return of the average dollar and the ETFs’ aggregate total return widens dramatically. This reflects poorly timed purchases and sales in prior years as well as the effect of compounding those errors.Investor TakeawaysReject Good StoriesThematic ETFs are predicated on the idea that you can tap into a burgeoning trend and ride a wave of popularity and adoption to big gains. A rule-of-thumb I use is that by the time I come across or make sense of something, it’s already been discovered and priced in by legions of other market participants who boast greater faculties and deeper resources than me. Distrust Your IntuitionSure, it sounds defeatist to say you shouldn’t count on your ability to make sense of an investment and play out its future. Heck, AI is already big, and it’s going to get bigger; if that’s the conclusion you’ve reached, I’m not here to tell you you’re wrong. But that isn’t a sturdy enough reason to buy something. Why? You need to be able to distinguish between the story you’ve constructed in your own mind and the story the market has effectively incorporated into the security’s price. When they differ, you can run into big problems. Sideline EmotionWe seek patterns and extrapolate because it can instill a sense of calm and order in a world that otherwise might feel chaotic and random. Theme-based ETFs can seem to dispel complexity and make investing seem almost linear, where if something “gets big” or “breaks through,” you win. I’m not here to say you should reject your emotions, but they shouldn’t drive the decision. If buying feels exciting or selling brings relief, I’d revisit the decision. Keep PerspectiveIt might not seem like it, but if you invest in a broadly diversified stock portfolio, then you probably have exposure to many of the leading themes. No, it’s not as fun and won’t win you any bragging rights. And, yes, it’s watered down compared with an allocation to an ETF that is focused like a laser on that theme. But let’s keep things in perspective: The average thematic ETF returned 10.5% annually over the decade ended Aug. 31, 2026, which was 5 percentage points per year less than the S&P 500’s gain over that span. Find Another Way?Full disclosure: Morningstar licenses thematic indexes that various ETFs track. So it would be pretty hypocritical for me to lecture anyone about launching theme-based ETFs. (I say that even as someone who is not involved in those commercial arrangements.) Nevertheless, as an unreconstructed believer in the idea that fund companies win over the long term when their investors succeed, I guess I’d hope that thematic ETFs’ poor dollar-weighted results would have fund companies doing at least a little bit of introspection? Maybe to ask whether we really need another drone-, photonics-, or “space-industry income blast”-themed ETF? Switched OnHere are other things I’m writing, reading, and watching:Amy Arnott on the hocus-pocus at YieldMax Ultra Option Income StrategyChristine Benz with a needed reality check on bonds’ role in your portfolioBryan Armour on untangling the semiliquid fund fee knotMichael Santoli’s “Market Memo” newsletterA thread on trends in ETF share splits, just becauseDaisy chain: A proposed ETF that would invest in swaps tied to futures linked to private firmsWhat’s in your special purpose vehicle? The SEC wants to know. The Hugging Face hack was bigger and creepier than we thought“The Older I Get, the Less I Seem to Know” by Jonathan Eig“Aliens” gets the Rewatchables treatmentDon’t Be a StrangerI love hearing from you. Have some feedback? An angle for an article? Email me at jeffrey.ptak@morningstar.com. If you’re so inclined, you can also follow me on Twitter/X at @syouth1, and I do some odds-and-ends writing on a Substack called Basis Pointing.

Carmakers eventually learn the same lesson. The market that made you can also trap you. Build your entire business around one country, and you inherit that country’s slowdown, whether you earned it or not.

That is the trap China’s auto industry has spent this year trying to escape. Retail sales in the world’s biggest car market slumped 24% in August to 1.54 million units, and year-to-date sales are down more than a fifth, Bloomberg reported, citing China Passenger Car Association data.

For BYD (BYDDY), the damage at home is specific. Domestic sales fell 32.72% to 1,505,755 vehicles through August, dragging total sales down 6.84%, according to data compiled by CnEVPost.

Tesla (TSLA) has been running a version of the same play from Shanghai, shipping cars out of a market where its share keeps eroding. Exports have quietly become a pressure valve for both companies, which makes the monthly ranking of who is actually shipping the most a useful scoreboard.

Then came the Wednesday, Sept. 9, export ranking. BYD claimed 35.4% of China’s passenger new energy vehicle, or NEV, exports in August, while Tesla China dropped to fourth with 7.0%, according to China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) figures published by CnEVPost.

That is not a gap. That is a different weight class.

China’s August export rankings: BYD vs. Tesla China

BYD exported 183,746 passenger NEVs in August, up 130.8% from a year earlier and 5.8% from July. Its share climbed from July’s 32.2%.

Tesla China exported 36,119 vehicles, down 45.5% month over month. Its share fell from 12.3% in July, knocking it from third place to fourth behind Geely and Chery.

Related: BYD just answered the question Tesla keeps fighting in court

Stretch the frame and the picture holds. Through the first eight months of 2026, BYD shipped 1,126,797 NEVs abroad for a 33.9% share, against Tesla China’s 331,443 and 10.0%.

One wrinkle is worth naming, because most coverage blurs it. BYD’s own reported overseas sales for August were 189,466 vehicles, a larger figure than the CPCA export count, because it includes cars built at plants outside China.

When I ran both series side by side, the divergence between them is the story: The gap widens every time BYD opens a factory abroad.

BYD export share hits 35.4% as Tesla China falls to 4th.- / Getty Images

Why BYD’s 2027 target changes the math for Tesla

BYD now expects to sell more than 2.5 million vehicles overseas in 2027, a target disclosed in a Deutsche Bank research note after management’s post-earnings call, CnEVPost reported.

Management also lifted 2026 overseas guidance to between 1.9 million and 2.0 million vehicles. That target started the year at 1.3 million and was raised to 1.5 million in March.

More Automotive:

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Read that sequence twice. A company does not raise the same forecast three times in nine months because demand is soft.

The constraint was never buyers. Management said shipping capacity held volumes back this year and that sales would have been higher with enough ships, according to the Deutsche Bank note. BYD is answering with a bigger dedicated carrier fleet and more local assembly.

Its Indonesian plant is producing. Brazil is ramping toward annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles. Hungary is expected to begin assembly in November or December.

Local assembly matters more than the tonnage. A car built in Hungary is not an export. It is a European car, and it sidesteps the tariff structure Brussels built specifically to slow Chinese shipments. Management is evaluating additional overseas plant locations.

The overseas margin story investors keep missing

Volume without profit is just expensive market share, and that has been the honest bear case on BYD for two years running. The export numbers finally complicate it.

Profit per vehicle sold overseas ran about 20,000 yuan, or roughly $2,950, in the first half despite currency headwinds, management said on the call. The company expects that figure to stay broadly stable near term, with volume gains offset by dealer network buildout and new factory ramp costs.

Here is how quickly the overseas base has compounded:

242,765 overseas NEV sales in 2023

417,204 in 2024

1,046,083 in 2025

1,162,260 through August 2026

More than 2.5 million targeted for 2027, according to Deutsche Bank’s research noteSource: CnEVPost

What struck me in my analysis is the shape of that curve against Europe’s demand backdrop.

Battery-electric cars took 20.7% of the European Union market in the first half of 2026, up from 15.6% a year earlier, ACEA reported. BYD is scaling into a market that is still expanding, not fighting for a fixed pie.

What this means for your portfolio

If you hold Tesla, none of this is a thesis-breaker on its own. It is a clarifier.

Tesla’s valuation has not been a bet on selling the most cars for some time. It is a bet on autonomy, energy storage, and robotics arriving fast enough to matter. Every month BYD widens the export gap, that bet gets more concentrated, because the fallback of “Well, it still sells a lot of cars” gets thinner.

TheStreet has tracked how BYD’s volume wins keep arriving with margin caveats attached, and how the price war at home has hollowed out its own profitability. Those caveats have not vanished.

BYD still faces European tariffs, local-content pressure, and political scrutiny in half the markets it is entering. Battery supply is another live constraint. Shortages of the second-generation Blade Battery are not expected to clear until the first quarter of 2027, with an order backlog of about 250,000 flash-charging-compatible vehicles waiting behind them.

So the risk is real. And it is no longer just the risk of a company that cannot find customers.

That distinction matters for anyone holding either stock in a retirement account rather than trading it. A company fighting for demand can be fixed with a better product. A company fighting a rival that has both cheaper cars and more factories on more continents is a slower, more structural problem, and it tends to show up in guidance long before it shows up in a quarterly print.

Watch the monthly CPCA export ranking rather than the quarterly delivery headlines. It updates faster, it strips out the domestic price war, and right now it is the cleanest read available on which of these two companies is buying itself more time.

Related: China’s BYD sets audacious goal: Overtake Toyota by 2030