SUCCESS

“Diesel touches everything in the economy,” one analyst says.

Patients expect their physicians to recommend treatments based on medical evidence. But a growing body of university research suggests that the company covering the insurance may also employ the doctor diagnosing and treating the patient’s conditions.

Five of the largest health insurance companies in the United States now operate networks of physician practices, pharmacy benefit managers, and ambulatory surgery centers. 

Those five insurers collectively cover about 126 million Americans and control 69% of all Medicare Advantage enrollment, a Brookings Institution analysis found.

For the millions of people comparing plans during the next open enrollment window, the financial relationship between insurers and physicians is invisible, yet consequential. 

New data from Brown University and Brookings show that when insurers buy doctor practices, spending climbs.

UnitedHealth’s Optum acquisitions added $250 million in annual Medicare spending

A working paper from Brown University’s Center for Advancing Health Policy through Research measured what happened after UnitedHealth Group purchased physician practices through Optum.

The research team tracked more than 200 acquired practices and followed about 4,500 primary care providers alongside more than 500,000 Medicare patients. 

Medicare Advantage payments tied to those practices rose by roughly $250 million per year after the acquisitions, the Brown researchers concluded.

That increase in spending produced no measurable improvement in patient care quality. Patients at the acquired practices were no less likely to be hospitalized or visit the emergency room, two standard measures used to evaluate clinical performance.

“The rise of insurers, particularly UnitedHealth, acquiring physician practices is one of the most notable recent trends in health care consolidation,” said Jeffrey Marr, Brown’s assistant professor of health services, policy, and practice. 

Marr added that regulators including the Department of Justice and Congress have scrutinized the practice, yet little empirical evidence exists to show whether the deals benefit patients.

Acquired practices listed more diagnoses without treating sicker patients

After UnitedHealth completed the acquisitions, physicians at the purchased practices began documenting more medical conditions per patient during routine visits.

That pattern made patients appear sicker in billing records, according to a press release on the Brown working paper.

In Medicare Advantage, insurers receive larger federal payments for patients documented with more serious or numerous conditions.

More Healthcare/Health:

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Medicare’s new $50 GLP-1 deal has a catch

“It’s primarily known as a way of gaming the system,” said Christopher Whaley, associate director of the Center for Advancing Health Policy through Research, in the press release. 

“The main point of this gaming is that it substantially increases payment to insurers, in this case, UnitedHealthcare, even though the patient’s true conditions remain the same,” he said.

Medicare Advantage now covers more than half of all Medicare beneficiaries, and federal payments to Medicare Advantage plans reached $534 billion in 2025, according to the Medicare Trustees Report. 

In 2022 alone, the acquired practices generated about $265 million in additional Medicare Advantage payments tied to the diagnostic coding changes.

Acquired practices recorded more diagnoses, making patients appear sicker and driving higher Medicare Advantage payments without changes in their health.Me 3645 Studio / Getty Images

UnitedHealthcare paid Optum doctors up to 61% more in concentrated markets

A study published in Health Affairs by researchers at Brown and the University of California at Berkeley examined how UnitedHealthcare compensates physicians.

Using newly available federal price transparency data, the team found that UnitedHealthcare pays Optum doctors about 17% more than independent practices for identical services. 

In markets where UnitedHealthcare controls a large share of the insurance business, that payment difference widened to as much as 61%, the study found.

Daniel Arnold, the study’s lead author and a senior research scientist at Brown’s School of Public Health, said in a Brown release that the payment pattern only makes financial sense once the corporate structure is factored in.

What we saw in the data was that UnitedHealthcare is paying its doctor practices at Optum well above the market rate. Normally, an insurance company wouldn’t pay above market rate because it costs them money, but here it’s not really a cost.

Federal law requires insurers to spend between 80% and 85% of collected premiums on medical care, depending on market segment, under a rule known as the Medical Loss Ratio. Medicare Advantage plans, the focus of the Brown research, are subject to the 85% threshold.

By directing higher payments to their physician networks, insurers can meet the Medical Loss Ratio threshold on paper without reducing overall corporate revenue.

Nearly 80% of U.S. physicians now work for corporate owners, and Congress is responding

That financial architecture gives insurers a structural reason to continue acquiring physician practices, and the ownership shift is already well advanced.

By 2024, nearly 80% of physicians in the United States were employed by hospitals or corporate entities, up from 62% just five years earlier. 

Georgetown University’s Center on Health Insurance Reforms published those figures in a May 2026 analysis of the effects of vertical integration on consumers and clinicians.

Three federal bills have been introduced to strengthen antitrust enforcement against integrated insurer-provider organizations, according to Georgetown. 

Only one, the Break Up Big Medicine Act, introduced by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) with Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) as co-sponsor, is bipartisan. That legislation would ban common ownership between insurers and physician practices. 

The other two, the Patients Over Profits Act and the Competition and Antitrust Law Enforcement Reform Act, are sponsored exclusively by Democrats.

Brookings traces the money inside each insurer’s corporate tree

Richard Frank, director of the Center on Health Policy at Brookings, and senior research assistant Samuel Peterson mapped the subsidiary networks and traced intercompany revenue flows.

UnitedHealth Group lists more than 2,000 subsidiaries, according to Brookings. In 2025, related entities paid Optum Health $63.6 billion, 63% of that division’s total revenue. 

The other major insurers follow similar playbooks:

CVS routes Aetna premiums through Caremark and Oak Street Health.

Elevance channels payments through CarelonRx.

Humana directs spending through CenterWell Senior Primary Care.

Standard plan documents do not disclose whether a Medicare Advantage plan’s insurer, physician network, and pharmacy benefit manager share one corporate parent.

What the Brookings subsidiary map means for plan shoppers

Georgetown’s Center on Health Insurance Reforms has called for greater transparency around ownership and affiliations in healthcare, research that can help enrollees determine whether their plan’s insurer also owns their primary care provider.

Brown’s research shows the financial consequences of that structure: increasing what taxpayers spend on Medicare Advantage while patient hospitalization and emergency room visit rates remain unchanged.

The Brookings subsidiary spreadsheet is the first publicly available dataset to trace those connections, and enrollees approaching the next open enrollment window can cross-reference their plan’s parent company against it before selecting or renewing coverage.

Related: Your health insurance may not protect your finances

If you’ve ever taken on a home renovation project, you probably know the feeling: You make a quick trip to Home Depot for one item, leave with a cart full of supplies, and realize you bought the wrong materials or didn’t buy enough, leading to a repeat trip.

For new homeowners, the experience can be even more familiar. A trip for paint, a replacement part, or a few tools can quickly become a regular ritual as one home project turns into another.

Now, Home Depot wants to make those visits a little more enjoyable.

The home improvement giant is expanding its Food Operations program, which brings local and regional food vendors to its stores. 

The program features food trucks and other mobile vendors offering breakfast, lunch, and dinner outside Home Depot locations around the country.

Home Depot says the initiative is designed to provide convenient food options while strengthening connections between its stores and their local communities. 

“Our mission is to provide local food options for our customers that enhance the shopping experience,” said Vice President of Merch Services Richard Goodrich. 

“Food vendors bring a sense of community and convenience to our stores while creating meaningful connections with customers.”

Home Depot takes a page out of Costco’s playbook

Home Depot clearly wants food to become part of the shopping experience. And it’s a concept that’s been proven to work, thanks to Costco’s famous food court.

Costco’s food court has become much more than a place to grab a cheap meal after shopping. 

The retailer’s famously low-priced food offerings reinforce its broader value proposition and give shoppers another reason to make the trip to a warehouse.

Related: Costco makes a delivery change members will love

That strategy matters because Costco isn’t simply selling pizza, hot dogs, and drinks. The food court has become one of the retailer’s most recognizable perks and a small but powerful part of its customer loyalty strategy.

Home Depot’s approach is a bit different.

The company isn’t building a standardized food court with a national menu. Instead, it’s bringing local food trucks and vendors to individual stores. 

That gives Home Depot something Costco doesn’t have to the same degree — a way to make individual stores feel more connected to their communities.

It also makes sense for the nature of a Home Depot visit. 

Customers can spend hours shopping for materials, especially during a renovation or major project. A food truck outside the store gives them an easy option to grab breakfast or lunch without making another stop.

Home Depot wants to provide convenient food options while strengthening connections between its stores and their local communities. Shutterstock

Home Depot has good reason to keep customers coming back

The timing of the food truck initiative also makes sense for Home Depot.

The retailer reported $47.9 billion in second-quarter fiscal 2026 sales, up 5.7% from a year earlier, while comparable sales increased 1.7%. U.S. comparable sales rose 1.3%. 

Home Depot said results exceeded its expectations and reaffirmed its full-year guidance.

But the company is still dealing with a challenging housing environment.

Home Depot executives said larger discretionary projects remain under pressure, while housing turnover has remained at historically low levels for several years. Higher mortgage rates have made consumers less willing or able to take on major renovation projects.

At the same time, Home Depot is dealing with rising fuel, energy, and other input costs. The company received $730 million in tariff refunds during the quarter, with $685 million reducing the cost of goods sold. 

But executives said those benefits would be offset by incremental cost pressures during the year. That makes initiatives designed to improve the shopping experience and drive sales crucial.

A low-effort strategy that could yield big results

Home Depot is clearly invested in boosting revenue. Food trucks fit neatly into that strategy because they add convenience without requiring Home Depot to make a major investment in restaurants.

“Home Depot adding food trucks makes sense because the strongest retailers are increasingly thinking beyond the transaction,” said RTM Nexus CEO Dominick Miserandino.

More Retail:

Costco sees major shift in member behavior

Retail chain shuts all locations as legal changes hit industry

Costco makes major investment in online shopping for members

“Costco’s food court works because it gives members another reason to linger, creates a little ritual around the shopping trip, and adds perceived value beyond the merchandise itself. Home Depot doesn’t need to become Costco, but anything that makes a high-consideration trip feel more convenient or enjoyable can strengthen the overall customer experience.”

If Costco’s food court can become a memorable part of the warehouse experience and reinforce the retailer’s value proposition, there’s a reasonable case that offering food can work for Home Depot, too.

For a customer who is already spending Saturday morning buying lumber, paint, and power tools, a good local breakfast or lunch waiting outside could be one more reason to make Home Depot the place they want to visit.

Maurie Backman owns shares of Costco.

Related: Walmart takes big step to make Sam’s Club memberships more valuable

Financial stability is not built through one major decision. It comes from consistent choices made over time. The way you manage your income, expenses, savings, debt, and investments today can determine how much flexibility and security you have in the future.
Many people think financial stability means earning a high income or having a large amount of money saved. While income can help, stability is more about creating a reliable system for managing your money. A strong financial foundation allows you to handle unexpected expenses, work toward personal goals, and make decisions without constant financial stress.
Whether you are starting from scratch or looking to improve your current habits, small changes can create meaningful progress. The key is understanding where your money goes and making intentional decisions that support your long-term goals.
Start With a Clear Understanding of Your Financial Situation
Before you can improve your finances, you need to know where you currently stand. This means taking an honest look at your income, monthly expenses, savings, debts, and financial goals.
Many financial challenges come from a lack of awareness. Small purchases, recurring subscriptions, and unnecessary fees can quietly reduce the amount of money available for important priorities. Reviewing your bank statements and tracking your spending can reveal patterns that are easy to miss.
A simple financial review does not require complicated tools. Start by listing your monthly income and fixed expenses, such as housing, utilities, transportation, insurance, and loan payments. Then review variable expenses like dining, entertainment, shopping, and personal spending.
Once you understand your financial picture, you can make better decisions. A budget is not meant to restrict your life. It is a plan that helps you direct money toward what matters most.
Create a Budget That Supports Your Goals
A good budget is a practical tool for balancing your current needs with your future priorities. It gives every dollar a purpose and helps prevent spending decisions from happening without thought.
The most effective budget is one that fits your lifestyle. Some people prefer detailed category tracking, while others use a simpler approach that focuses on major expenses and savings goals. The goal is not perfection. The goal is consistency.
Start by prioritizing essential expenses first. After covering necessities, allocate money toward savings, debt repayment, and personal goals. If your budget shows that your expenses regularly exceed your income, it becomes easier to identify areas where adjustments can be made.
Budgeting also helps prepare you for future opportunities. Saving for a home, starting a business, traveling, or retiring comfortably all become more achievable when you understand how much money you can realistically set aside each month. A simple split of where each dollar goes makes those targets less abstract. Financial planning experts often emphasize understanding your cash flow as one of the first steps toward building a stronger financial foundation.
Build Savings Habits That Create Security
Savings provide a financial cushion when life does not go according to plan. Unexpected medical bills, car repairs, job changes, or urgent home expenses can create serious pressure if you do not have money set aside.
An emergency fund is one of the most important parts of financial stability because it reduces your reliance on credit cards or loans during difficult situations. Many experts recommend gradually building enough savings to cover several months of essential expenses, although the right amount depends on your personal circumstances.
The easiest way to build savings is to make it automatic. Instead of saving whatever remains at the end of the month, treat savings as a regular expense. Automatic transfers from your checking account to a savings account can help you build the habit without relying on willpower.
Even small contributions matter. A consistent savings routine can become a foundation for larger financial goals later.
For people who regularly manage their finances digitally, tools like instant mobile check deposit can also make it easier to move money into the right accounts quickly and keep financial tasks organized. Simple conveniences can support better money habits when they fit into a broader financial strategy.
Manage Debt Before It Limits Your Future
Debt is not always harmful. Borrowing money can help people purchase homes, invest in education, or manage important expenses. However, high-interest debt can become a major obstacle when it prevents you from saving and investing for the future.
The first step in managing debt is understanding what you owe. Make a list of your balances, interest rates, and minimum payments. This gives you a clearer picture of which debts are costing you the most.
High-interest credit card debt often deserves attention because interest charges can grow quickly. Paying more than the minimum payment, reducing unnecessary borrowing, and choosing a repayment strategy can help you regain control.
Some people prefer the debt avalanche method, which focuses on paying off the highest-interest debt first. Others choose the debt snowball method, which prioritizes smaller balances to create momentum. The best approach is the one you can maintain over time.
Responsible debt management is also connected to maintaining a healthy credit profile. According to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, understanding credit reports, payment history, and borrowing habits can help consumers make more informed financial decisions.
Protect Your Financial Progress
Building wealth is only part of financial planning. Protecting what you have is equally important.
Insurance coverage, emergency savings, and careful financial decisions all help reduce risks that could disrupt your long-term plans. Without protection, one unexpected event can undo years of progress.
Consider whether you have appropriate coverage for your health, home, vehicle, income, and dependents. The right level of protection depends on your situation, but ignoring financial risks can leave you vulnerable.
It is also important to protect your accounts and personal information. Use strong passwords, enable security features, and monitor your financial accounts regularly. Preventing financial problems is often easier than recovering from them.
Invest for Long-Term Growth
Saving helps protect your money, but investing can help it grow over time. Inflation can reduce purchasing power, meaning money that sits unused may lose value over the long term.
Investing does involve risk, so it is important to choose strategies that match your goals, timeline, and comfort level. Retirement accounts, diversified investment portfolios, and other long-term options can help you build future wealth.
The earlier you begin investing, the more time your money has to benefit from compound growth. You do not need to start with a large amount. Consistency is often more important than the initial contribution.
A long-term mindset also helps prevent emotional decisions during market changes. Successful investing usually requires patience and a focus on your broader financial objectives.
Review and Adjust Your Financial Plan Regularly
Financial stability is not something you achieve once and forget about. Your income, expenses, responsibilities, and goals will change throughout your life.
Reviewing your finances regularly allows you to adjust your strategy when needed. A new job, a major purchase, a growing family, or changing economic conditions may require updates to your budget and savings plan.
Set aside time every few months to review your progress. Check whether you are meeting your savings goals, reducing debt, and staying on track with your long-term plans.
The strongest financial habits are not complicated. They are consistent. By understanding your money, planning ahead, protecting your resources, and making thoughtful decisions, you can create greater stability and confidence for the future.
The post Building Financial Stability: Practical Steps to Protect Your Money and Future appeared first on Addicted 2 Success.

I used to raise my hand when someone asked who in the room was an entrepreneur.
Then I started watching what people meant by the word.
They meant the photo. Own your time. Work for yourself. Build a life you do not need a holiday from. Those are the perception questions. Everybody says yes.
The reality questions are less popular. Are you willing to work when nobody is watching? Are you willing to put money you cannot easily replace on the line? Are you willing to look average in public while the thing is still ugly?
If you only want the first list, you do not want entrepreneurship. You want a costume.
I got confused because the word got cool
When I started Addicted2Success, entrepreneurship was not a personality. It was a slightly embarrassing choice. Now it sits next to being an athlete or a rapper. Cool. Visible. Easy to claim in a bio.
That timing helped a lot of us. The internet made it cheaper to start. It also made it easier to perform the job without doing the job.
I still believe you can get better at the craft. Sales. Copy. Funnels. Ops. You can sit in rooms with people who have done it. You can be mentored. What I do not believe is that a workshop can install the part that gets out of bed with no manager and no applause.
That part is closer to a talent you either feed or you do not. I could practice basketball every day and get better. I was never going to the league. Plenty of people can run a useful business. Fewer people should bet the house on becoming a founder.
That is not an insult. It is self-awareness. The operators who last double down on what they are actually good at and hire around the rest. The ones who stall spend years trying to become someone they admire.
I wasted years treating titles like a personality
Corporate was not evil. It was the wrong container for how I am wired.
I would start a role excited. A few months in I was a worse version of myself. Sunday already felt like Monday. Wednesday I was writing the resignation in my head. Friday I was just making an appearance.
I thought I needed a better job. I needed a different scoreboard.
A pastor said something that stuck, and it was not complicated. When the life you can see in your head and the life you are living stay too far apart, you get heavy. Not because you are ungrateful. Because you keep saying yes to a room that cannot hold what you are trying to build.
I ignored that sign and looked for another job that would make me happy. Same pattern. Different logo.
Leaving was not cinematic. It was a decision to stop renting my week to people who did not need the version of me that wanted to build.
Success got defined by people who were selling a jet
This is the part I care about more than another “hustle” speech.
A business that pays you well enough to live under your means, doing work you can stand, is a win. We do not talk about it that way. We talk about islands and exits.
If you make a living you can keep, on something you actually like, that is not a participation trophy. That is rare. The bottom of the top one percent in a rich country is still not the picture most people start with. They start at a million and a plane.
I do not want kids growing up thinking they failed because they built a good company instead of a fundraising machine.
A lot of what gets called a startup now is a finance game on the back end. CAC. LTV. The next round. The consumer is a metric. That can work as a sport. It is a terrible way to build a life. When the money gets tighter, the costume comes off. Some people will not have a self left under it.
Freedom is not what you make. It is what you do not have to spend to look free.
How I know it was not just a phase
Every real operator I know was selling something early. Candy. Labor. A service nobody asked them to start. They liked the feeling of money they made themselves.
They also do not stay satisfied. Finish one thing and the room gets quiet until the next problem shows up. That can look ungrateful from the outside. Inside it is just how the engine runs.
They would rather work a long day on their own hook than a clean eight hours on someone else’s calendar. That is not always healthy. It is honest.
I did not get a lightning bolt. I got enough signs that staying put cost more than leaving. Then I had to try it without a guarantee. Fear is usually the thing dressed up as research.
Trying is still the cleanest test. Not a personality quiz. Not a course. You put something in front of a real person and ask if they will pay.

What I watch for now
Attitude and effort. You control both. There is no law against working the problem except the clock.
Put the next step on the calendar. Call someone and ask if they want the thing. Ask if they will pay. A year from now you do not want the same conversation about being stuck.
Do not fall in love with the idea. Collide it with a customer before you write the ten-page plan. A piece of paper on a door beats a pitch deck if nobody knocks.
Protect the hours that actually move the number. Signal over noise. Three things that matter today. Everything else is interruption with a story.
Hire people better than you when you can. If someone cannot keep the standard and you keep them anyway, you just lowered it.
Know what you do not know. That is a strength. Pretending you have every hat is how founders drown.
And if you have a job that still pays the bills, you do not have to light it on fire for a caption. Build the new thing to a point where it is real. Then jump. Discipline is what makes that jump less theatrical.
The voices
People who have never carried the risk will have a lot to say. Some of them love you. That does not make them right about this.
If the people closest to you only feel safe when you stay small, you have to limit how much of their fear you swallow. Misery likes company. So does courage. Pick the room.
Authenticity is not a brand setting. It is not posting what you do not believe because it gets the like. MySpace Top 8 used to feel like life or death. It was not. Neither is this week’s vanity metric.
Work with family only if you love them more than the money. In a family business, respect the dirt that got the thing this far. Hit singles until you have earned the room to swing harder.
What I would tell myself earlier
You do not have to be the next platform.
You do have to be honest about whether you want the job or the photo.
Stay narrow long enough to get good. Attach a real offer to a name people can trust. Move faster than the version of you that wants another month to think. A rough version in the market beats a perfect version in your notes.
If it works, you get a life you do not have to perform.
If it does not, at least you lost on your own sword. Losing twice is worse. Once on the business, and once on the life somebody else talked you into.
The post Most People Want the Photo of Entrepreneurship. Not the Job. appeared first on Addicted 2 Success.

Cincinnati is still in MLS Cup Playoff contention. But the vibes at the club sure seem worse than their 7th-place standing.

The U.S. Treasury is actively buying back government bonds. Learn how Treasury buybacks work, why maturity swaps affect yields, and how to position your portfolio.

With different estimates pinning the total number of travel agencies registered in the United Kingdom in 2026 at between 16,887 to 17,519, the country surpasses many others on this front due to a historically strong travel culture and national interest in group tours and package holidays.

But amid the rise of online booking platforms and wider economic challenges brought on by the war in Iran, many have not survived the current headwinds. The United Kingdom has seen a particularly strong domino effect of travel agency collapses since the start of 2026.

Some British travel companies that either ended up in insolvency proceedings or ceased operations entirely in 2026 include Trav Expert, Groupia, Salamander Voyages, Travel Bespoke, Regen Central, Set Sail Cruises, Yourtravelshop.com, Ski Yodel, and TS Travels Group, among a number of others.

Barnes Worldwide Travel travel company shuts down operations

The most recent name to join that list is Liverpool-based Barnes Worldwide Travel Ltd. As was first reported by several British outlets, the travel company founded in 2007 ceased operations on Sept. 9.

Barnes Worldwide Travel booked tours to countries such as Greece, Cyprus, Türkiye and Egypt as well as New York and Las Vegas in the U.S. to local Liverpool travelers.

Related: Another low-cost airline is betting big on Colombia travel

“We are sorry to inform you that Barnes Worldwide Travel Ltd has ceased trading on 9 September 2026,” ABTA, the British organization representing travel agents and tour operators formerly known as Association of British Travel Agents, said in a statement.

The ABTA also offers consumer protection for packages purchased in the Unted Kingdom that include a flight but not for bookings that are only for accommodation.

Barnes Worldwide Travel was founded out of Liverpool in 2007.Image source: Shutterstock

What to do if you bought a recent trip with Barnes Worldwide Travel

As the company was not an independent tour operator but a travel agent selling other companies’ organized tours, the ABTA is encouraging travelers with booked trips to check directly with the tour provider to see whether the trip is still taking place and that they have a valid booking (in some cases over the years, travel agencies were shut down by regulators after it was discovered that they sold packages with invalid bookings).

“To ensure your holiday continues as planned, you will need to contact the credit control department of your tour operator or other principal travel business with whom you have a contract,” ABTA said further. “Your booking should continue as normal, and they will be your direct point of contact.”

More Travel News:

Airline to launch unusual new flight to Cayman Islands from the U.S.

There is a very cool Irish version of swimming pigs in The Bahamas

Unexpected country is most luxurious travel destination for 2026

Low-cost airline launches easier way to get to Sri Lanka

Some travel agencies filed for bankruptcy in 2026:

AVG Travels: The Melbourne-based travel agency selling cheap vacation packages to travelers in Australia and New Zealand sent more than 200 customers an email saying that the trips were canceled before entering bankruptcy in May 2026.

GoPlay Sports: In April 2026, the men’s basketball team of the University of Dallas was left without a planned trip to compete in the United Kingdom after Boston-based GoPlay Sports Tours LLC accepted two payments of $30,000 and then went unreachable.

Havantur: Havantur was forced to shut down its main European office in France at the beginning of 2026 after tourist numbers to the Caribbean country plummeted due to U.S. military actions in Venezuela and threats against the country.

Vegas Vacations and North America Destinations: Two travel agencies in the Canadian province of British Columbia, Vegas Vacations and North America Destinations, were shut down by regulators within a few days of each other in January 2026 after multiple travelers complained of buying trips and receiving invalid plane tickets and hotel bookings.

Related: 45-year-old tour company shuts down, cancels all trips

The company saw its backlog grow even more in the latest quarter.

Wall Street is about to get the one inflation number that could determine if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next week.

With wholesale prices already showing renewed inflation pressure and crude oil prices climbing, the Sept. 11 August Consumer Price index has taken on importance for a divided Fed. 

Even a modest upside surprise in the August CPI could strengthen the case for a quarter-point rate hike when policymakers meet Sept. 15-16.

Economists and consensus forecasts expect the August CPI to show a bump in headline monthly inflation driven primarily by higher energy and gas prices.

Aptus Capital Advisors Portfolio Manager and Head of Fixed Income John Luke Tyner said the unexpected surge in the August jobs report puts additional pressure on the Fed’s price stability mandate.

“You typically don’t think about Fed decisions as binary outcomes but I wouldn’t be surprised if the fate of a September hike hinges upon the PPI and CPI prints,’’ Tyner told TheStreet in an email.

“With tariffs continuing to be in the conversation (Canada), energy prices higher, AI demand pretty much unaffected by higher rates, as well as data quirks from the government shutdown last year, it appears inflation pressures will not be fleeting soon.’’ 

The August CPI arrives one day after a hotter-than-expected August Producer Price Index report.

Producer prices rose 0.4% in August from July and 5.4% over the 12 months through August, adding to concerns that inflation pressures may be proving more persistent than Fed officials had expected.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller last week flagged both August prints as critical in the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to hike rates or continue to hold.

Persistent sticky inflation could result in a 25-basis point hike in the Federal Funds Rate.

Then there’s Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tone at last month’s Jackson Hole conference (“We have work to do”), during which he pledged the central bank would commit to taming inflation. 

“My opinion is Warsh does not want to hike and could be the swing vote on the decision,’’ Tyner said. 

“We will be interested in how markets react to the data and his decision next week. We are also interested in whether a skip in September would also mean a skip in October given Fed policy action around elections is unpopular. Bottom line: I do not envy his job,” he added.

Markets expect hot CPI report to trigger Fed rate hike

The CME Group FedWatch Tool, which gauges market expectations from federal-funds futures, shows traders increasingly betting on a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting.

The odds rose to about 70% on Sept. 10, up from roughly 61% earlier in the week and below 50% late last month.

“This is the double-dog daring you. This is straight schoolyard,” BNY Investments Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart told The Wall Street Journal. 

Markets also are pricing in a growing likelihood that interest rates will be higher later this year.

The odds of a rate increase by the October meeting have climbed above 80%, while the probability of the rates being higher by December has risen even further.

As widely expected by investors, the European Central Bank voted Sept. 10 to raise three rates by 25 basis points to 2.5% from 2.25%, due to inflation concerns stemming from the Iran war. 

The ECB expects baseline inflation, excluding energy and food, to reach 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028.

The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise interest rates due to the Iran war’s impact on gas and energy prices.

TheStreet

Fed’s dual mandate focuses on jobs, prices

The Fed’s dual mandate from Congress requires maximum employment and stable prices.

Lower interest rates support hiring but can fuel inflation. This risks fueling further inflation, potentially leading to an inflationary spiral.

Higher rates cool prices but can weaken the job market. This increases the cost of borrowing and further stifles economic activity.

The Sept. 4 blowout jobs report demonstrates the U.S. labor market is plowing through the economic uncertainty and financial jitters from the Iran war, despite higher gas and other energy prices. 

How Fed monetary policy affects you

The rate-setting FOMC voted 9-3 in July to hold the benchmark Federal Funds Rate target in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The three dissenters wanted to raise rates by 25 basis points because of inflation concerns.

Policymakers had cut rates by 25 basis points at its last three meetings of 2025 to shore up the softening labor market. 

Related: UBS doubles down on Fed rate-hike forecast for 2026

These “insurance” cuts stopped after the majority of policymakers decided the risk from higher prices was outweighing signs that the jobs market was stabilizing.

The funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other banks overnight. It sets the pace for short-term borrowing costs like credit cards, student loans and home equity loans.

Higher short-term interest rates impact mortgages, corporate credit

A change in the funds rate triggers moves in short-term borrowing costs, ranging from credit cards and student loans to home equity loans. 

Higher interest rates also increase the yield on fixed income and alter how equity markets value future corporate earnings.

The hotter-than-expected PPI report and climbing crude oil prices sent the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged to roughly 4.93%, near the critical 5.00% mark.

Yields across the board also reached their highest levels in three years. Market strategists note that if the 10-year crosses and holds above 5.00%, it will increase long-term borrowing costs for mortgages and corporate credit.

Related: Fed rate-hike threat heats up as August inflation data looms