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Seniors 65 years old and over have been outnumbering children aged 5 or under across the world since 2023, the Census Bureau reports. Changes likes these are picking up speed, while demographers try to catch up.

Warren Buffett gave investors a remarkably simple warning 25 years ago.

Now the market has blown straight through it.

In a 2001 Fortune article, Buffett called the value of publicly traded U.S. stocks relative to the economy “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” Business Insider noted.

His danger zone was clear: Investors were “playing with fire” if the ratio hit 200%.

GuruFocus data through October 2023 show that a frequently tracked version of the metric was 238.2% as of Sept. 4. Another computation puts it close to 241%, showing how various methodologies can yield different results.

In any case, equities have shot over the threshold that Buffett originally tied to high valuations.

But there’s another figure that investors should consider.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) held $359.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and U.S. Treasury bills at the end of June. Together, they suggest a more fascinating question than whether Buffett is forecasting a disaster.

That is, what happens to future returns when investors pay historically extraordinary prices for the American economy?

Warren Buffett drew his line at 200%

The so-called Buffett Indicator measures the worth of publicly listed U.S. enterprises against U.S. economic production.

The principle is simple. Stocks are claims on companies, and those firms function within an economy. As their total market value rises far faster than economic production, investors are paying larger and larger multiples for those claims.

Buffett wrote about the friendship in Fortune in 2001, according to Business Insider.

The 70%-to-80% range has traditionally been great purchasing area, he noted. But as the ratio neared 200% on the eve of the dot-com boom, investors were playing with fire.

Related: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire raises stake in media giant

At roughly 238%, today’s reading is about 19% above Buffett’s old 200% warning threshold.

That doesn’t automatically imply a crash is on the way.

The indication itself is somewhat limited. American corporations earn significantly more abroad now than they did decades ago, and interest rates and changes in the mix of public and private business might affect what’s considered a sensible price.

But it’s difficult to see beyond the size.

Berkshire Hathaway has $359 billion waiting

Buffett’s actions are another element of the picture.

Berkshire’s insurance and other operations ended June with $359.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and Treasury bills. That contrasts with $340.8 billion invested in equity and fixed-maturity securities (excluding equity-method investments).

Put another way, Berkshire’s war chest of cash is still substantial, even after putting capital back to work.

The company bought OxyChem for $9.4 billion in January and Taylor Morrison Home for $6.8 billion in July, CNBC confirmed. Berkshire bought $4.8 billion of Treasury stock in the first half, mostly in the second quarter.

This is a key difference.

Buffett’s big cash balance doesn’t indicate he thinks all stocks are expensive. Berkshire is still discovering particular plays.

It does, however, show the organization’s selectivity.

Buffett delivered a similar message at Berkshire’s annual meeting in May, warning about increased speculative behavior in financial markets and saying gambling activity was distorting pricing and making it tougher to locate good assets.

Warren Buffett’s old market warning suddenly looks much more relevant.JOHANNES EISELE / Getty Images

The Buffett Indicator carries an important catch

That 238% statistic makes for very scary comparison to the dot-com bubble.

But investors should not see it as a countdown clock.

Since Buffett initially called attention to the metric, the structure of corporate America has altered substantially. U.S. corporations today produce a big chunk of their revenues abroad, but the gauge relates those global companies to economic activity at home.

That can structurally lift the ratio higher.

The Buffett Indicator is a better measure of valuation than a measure of market timing.

And here is where today’s reading is more helpful.

More Warren Buffett:

Warren Buffett reveals he broke his own investing pattern

Warren Buffett has a blunt take on today’s market

Warren Buffett pulls no punches on stock market for 2026

A costly market might continue to become pricier. It can also provide robust profit growth that ultimately justifies some of those premiums.

Harder is what usually makes beginning prices higher, without correspondingly extraordinary profit growth, to provide exceptional long-term gains.

That would put immense pressure on the AI growth.

Investors aren’t only wagering that artificial intelligence will revolutionize the economy. At present levels, they are increasingly gambling that corporations can make enough revenues from that change to justify prices that already indicate huge confidence.

Buffett’s warning isn’t really about a crash

The temptation is to make the Buffett Indicator a forecast that equities are poised to fall.

Buffett never made such a promise to investors. His initial thesis was about the link between the price paid by investors and the return they may anticipate. That difference is especially relevant now.

Berkshire isn’t just standing still. Sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars in cash, it has bought shares and made acquisitions. It’s more about selection than plain bearishness.

Perhaps the most beneficial interpretation is a 238% reading.

Extreme values don’t have to wait for a market crisis to become relevant. Returns may be disappointing, because it takes years for earnings to catch up to prices, because multiples shrink, or because better possibilities finally appear elsewhere.

Buffett has been banking those same moments for decades.

This is a market that may go higher from here. But with his famed valuation metric more than 40 percentage points above the threshold he previously deemed “playing with fire,” investors are paying a price Buffett once thought remarkable.

And Berkshire still has $359 billion on the sidelines for something better.

Related: Credit card giant pays Buffett’s Berkshire $576M in annual dividends

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.Why we love this deal

If a new tablet is on your wishlist as you prepare for a fall refresh, you’re in luck. While there are some discounts on name-brand options, we’ve found some of the best deals hidden on Amazon and Walmart. Many two-in-one tablets come with a host of accessories, turning the already convenient device into a mini laptop. And the best part? We’ve discovered many that cost less than $150. 

The Zonko 2-in-1 Laptop and Tablet is our latest find, and it’s on sale for just $103. Originally $180, it’s even more budget-friendly now with a 43% discount. 

Zonko 2-in-1 Laptop and Tablet, $103 (was $180) at Walmart

Courtesy of Walmart

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Why do shoppers love it?

Perfect for both kids and adults, this user-friendly two-in-one laptop and tablet makes everyday tasks and entertainment a breeze. With a 2 gigahertz octa-core processor, up to 16 gigabytes (GB) of RAM, 128 GB of ROM, and an expandable memory up to 1 terabyte (TB) via a micro SD slot, you’re met with ample storage space for files and downloads, as well as efficient performance that can handle everything from browsing the web to streaming your favorite TV shows. It operates on the Android 14 system, which has an easy-to-use interface. This tablet also offers enhanced security, custom themes, AI-generated wallpaper, and improved photo quality.

The device has a 10.1-inch high-definition touchscreen that is a fantastic size, not just in terms of portability but also for viewing. Photos and videos are crystal clear, and it has a built-in eye protection mode and dark mode that’s great for watching movies or for long reading sessions. It’s also equipped with an 8-megapixel front camera and a 13-megapixel back camera, which are perfect for snapping photos and connecting on video calls.

Related: Amazon has a 2-in-1 laptop and tablet with built-in AI features for 42% off

With an 8000-milliampere-hour battery, the tablet can manage up to 14 hours of local video playback and up to 10 hours of streaming and regular use on just one charge. That gives you more than enough time to stay entertained or catch up on work, whether you’re working at a cafe or keeping boredom at bay while you travel. 

The handy two-in-one tablet comes with a bundle of accessories that make it that much more impressive. A Bluetooth keyboard and a wireless mouse transform the tablet into a small laptop, and a stylus pen enhances the tablet experience. It also comes with even more useful tech accessories, including a tablet case, a USB adapter, a charging cable, a charger, and a TF card pin.

Details to know

Memory: Up to 16 GB of RAM and 128 GB of ROM, expandable up to 1 TB.

Operating system: Android 14.

Battery life: Up to 14 hours.

Screen size: 10.1 inches.

One shopper called this tablet and laptop combo the “perfect gift,” saying it’s “as capable as an iPad, but less expensive.” They also shared that it’s easy to set up and they were surprised by its quality. 

Shop more deals

Yqsavior 2-in-1 Android Laptop and Tablet, $60 at Amazon

Aeezo 2-in-1 Laptop and Tablet, $93 at Walmart

The Zonko 2-in-1 Laptop and Tablet is on sale for only $103, and it’s the perfect way to upgrade your tech this fall.

While there’s a bear case to be made on copper if the AI trade blows up, if Trump eschews tariffs or if peace descends over the Persian Gulf, the long-term rationale for higher prices is solid, a listed copper producer executive says.

Houston Astros slugger, Yordan Alvarez could become Major League Baseball’s first Triple Crown winner since 2012. The last was Detroit Tigers slugger, Miguel Cabrera.

Environmental quality is a personal health issue. And it should shape how physicians, communities, and policymakers respond.

The Pennsylvania senator has been increasingly at odds with his party on various issues but has repeatedly insisted that he has no plans to switch parties.

The president didn’t share any details about this proposal, which would likely cost more than $1 trillion.

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.

Why we love this deal

If you want to be outdoors and enjoy your garden or patio area again, you’re not alone. Whether an outdoor furniture set is in your future or you just need a comfortable place to sit and read the newspaper over a hot cup of morning joe, Amazon’s got some great prices on furniture and other evergreen home essentials right now.

The Fdw 3-Piece Outdoor Furniture Set, for example, is an eye-catching pick. It’s priced at just $90, comes with three beautiful pieces of steel-reinforced, all-weather furniture you can use both indoors and out, and hundreds of reviewers rave about it.

Fdw 3-Piece Patio Bistro Set, $90 at Amazon

Courtesy of Amazon

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Why do shoppers love it?

This beautiful bistro set comes with a tempered-glass coffee table, two rattan chairs, and two thick, comfortable seat cushions. Each chair measures 23 inches deep, 23 inches wide, and 33 inches tall, and the cushions are made with a high-density sponge filler to keep you comfy for hours. You can easily unzip the cushion covers and remove them for easy machine washing, and the table is easy to wipe down with a cloth, just like you’d do with any window or table. The rattan wicker material is made for all-weather conditions, and each piece is supported by a powder-coated steel frame, so these are sturdy enough to withstand the elements — unless you prefer to use them indoors, of course.

Each chair safely supports up to 200 pounds, and the set comes with all the parts and tools you need for quick, easy assembly. And shoppers say the smaller size of the side table makes it easy to find room for the whole conversation set. Whether you’re putting it out on a small balcony, in your living room, by your pool or garden, or in your kitchen, the set makes a perfect place to start your day.

Related: Walmart is selling a 3-seat patio swing glider with an adjustable canopy for 44% off

Details to know

Color options: You can get the set in 8 colors, but you’ll get the very best price on the black-and-beige option.

Weight capacity: 200 pounds per chair.

Total package weight: 35.2 pounds.

“This bistro set is absolutely beautiful,” said one reviewer. “It’s sleek, well-engineered, and installation is fast and simple. The instructions were straightforward; unboxing it was easy. I paid for the extra five years’ insurance because $21 is cheap. The tempered glass tabletop lies flush on the table, and the chair legs level out well when sat on and feel sturdy. The cushions feel amazing, even with my messed-up neck, spine, and hips, and they feel cool to the touch even after sitting out in the Texas sun.”

Shop more deals 

Vasagle End Table with Charging Station Set of 2, $36 (was $70) at Amazon

Flamaker 3-Piece Patio Conversation Set, $76 (was $90) at Amazon

Devoko 3-Piece Patio Furniture Set, $61 (was $90) at Amazon

Ready to be outdoors and enjoy the fresh, open air a bit more? Right now, you can score a beautiful three-piece FDW Patio Furniture Set for only $90 at Amazon.

Looking for help with today’s New York Times Wordle? Here are some expert hints, clues and commentary to help you solve today’s Wordle and sharpen your guessing game.