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Trump said in February he would order government agencies to release documents related to UFOs.

Oil has already had a remarkable run. Brent crude is trading above $100 a barrel, up roughly 50% since the start of the year, driven by the near-total disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since the war in the Middle East began on February 28.But Morgan Stanley’s global chief economist Seth Carpenter is focused on a different number entirely. Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on March 16, Carpenter said that $125 per barrel is the level where the situation fundamentally changes. Below that, markets can absorb the shock. Above it, something else begins.”Things really start to change above $125,” he said.What changes with oil above $125At current levels, the U.S. economy is under pressure but managing. Carpenter noted that as a net energy exporter, the United States has more resilience than most oil-importing nations. Higher prices hurt lower-income consumers and add to inflation, but the overall picture remains containable.Cross $125, and the calculation shifts. Seeking Alpha reported, citing Carpenter’s comments, sustained prices above that level would force markets to dramatically constrain demand to match reduced supply. That is not a policy choice. It is what happens when prices become high enough to do the work of an OPEC cut on their own.More Oil and Gas:Energy giant sends blunt $20 billion message on dividend growth147-year-old oil giant just raised dividend 4% in 2026Top energy stocks to buy amid Venezuela chaosIn practical terms, it means slower global growth, a heavier inflation burden across economies that import most of their oil, and the kind of demand destruction that takes months or years to fully reverse.What is driving prices nowThe immediate cause is the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway handles roughly 20% of global oil trade, and since hostilities began, tanker traffic has effectively stopped. The IEA’s March report called this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.Gulf producers have already cut total output by at least 10 million barrels per day as storage fills and ships cannot load. Brent futures briefly surged to an intraday high of $119.50 on March 9 before pulling back to around $100-$103 as of Tuesday.The EIA’s latest forecast expects Brent to remain above $95 a barrel for the next two months before easing in the second half of the year as flows hopefully normalize. But that assumption depends entirely on whether the conflict de-escalates, which nobody can predict with confidence.Where Wall Street standsBanks are sharply divided on where this goes from here, and the spread between the most bullish and most bearish calls is unusually wide.Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 Brent estimate to $80 per barrel from $62.50 before the most recent escalation, citing the Hormuz risk premium building into prices. J.P. Morgan, by contrast, has maintained a more bearish stance, keeping its full-year 2026 Brent forecast around $60 on the view that underlying supply-demand fundamentals remain soft and any disruption will be temporary, per JPMorgan.Standard Chartered raised its Q2 2026 estimate to $98 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs now expects Brent to average above $100 in March and around $85 in April before easing to $71 by Q4, per its latest note. The EIA, meanwhile, sees Brent averaging around $91 in Q2 before easing sharply.

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Where major banks see Brent crude in Q2 2026Standard Chartered: $98 per barrel, citing Hormuz supply shock and spare capacity limitsEIA: $91 per barrel, assuming gradual resumption of Strait flowsGoldman Sachs: Above $100 in March, ~$85 in April, falling to $71 by Q4, per its March 12 noteJ.P. Morgan: ~$60 full-year average, soft fundamentals outweigh geopolitical riskWhy the $125 number matters for investorsCarpenter’s warning is essentially a framework for thinking about risk rather than a forecast. It tells investors where the goalposts are.Below $125, the oil shock is painful but manageable. Companies and consumers adjust. Central banks can still cut rates if they need to. The global economy bends but does not break.Above $125, the math changes. Demand destruction becomes the primary mechanism for balancing the market rather than supply-side fixes. That is a slower, messier process that tends to ripple through economies in ways that are hard to model and harder to reverse.Brent is currently sitting around $101. That leaves roughly a 24% gap to the level Carpenter says changes everything. Given that it already traded within $20 of that threshold in recent weeks, the gap is not as comfortable as it might look on paper.Morgan Stanley is also sticking with its call for the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in June despite the oil surge, per Bloomberg. That view assumes prices do not break meaningfully higher from here. If they do, that call gets harder to hold.Related: Morgan Stanley sets bold new price target on Nvidia stock

Many years ago, a friend of mine bought a small property in an area all the buyers had totally ignored.
The houses weren’t exactly anything special, the area wasn’t making the rounds on investment blogs, and the property needed a fair amount of work.
Five years later, that same property was valued at nearly twice that amount. When people asked how he discovered such a lucrative deal before anyone else paid attention to it, his response was deceptively simple.
He lacked special connections, insider information or extraordinary luck. He simply had a system for spotting opportunities before everybody else.
That pattern is something we see over and over in the investment world. Successful investors tend to use approaches that allow them to find potential deals long before they are obvious.
Discussions across the board from conversations that informed resources such as this PropStream Review consistently zero in on a particular theme: The single greatest edge you can have in investing is not speed of movement or serendipity, but perspective.
The investors who reliably win are the ones who see value before everyone else does.
Most Investors Follow the Crowd
One of the worst mistakes that new investors make is searching for deals in all the same places as everybody else.
They peruse popular listing sites, scroll through marketplaces and face off against hundreds of other buyers who are vying for the same homes.
By the time publicly available listings arrive, attention has already drawn to the opportunity. And where attention goes, competition follows. This dynamic is well-known to seasoned investors.
Instead of pursuing the most obvious opportunities, they often search under the places where fewer buyers are looking.
Sometimes it means studying neighborhoods on the uptick. Other times it means looking for properties that aren’t actively on the market, or looking in areas that are gradually getting better.
The chief difference is simple: successful investors don’t invest in deals, they invest in mispriced or overlooked potential.
Opportunity Usually Present Itself Before The Crowd Takes Notice
Markets rarely change overnight. Small signs usually come first, before a neighborhood gets hot or property values spike.
Examples of these early signals include:

Nearby businesses may start to open up

Infrastructure projects might be announced

Population trends might slowly shift

These signals may seem inconsequential on their own. But investors who keep a close eye tend to notice patterns developing. These patterns can gradually show where opportunity might be opening up.
The ability to spot subtle changes is among the most valuable skills that any investor can learn. Rather than responding when a trend is clear, they place themselves in front of one.
And entrepreneurs act pretty much the same. Many successful businesses have been built by founders who saw changes in behavior, technology or markets before they became mainstream. The sooner you see opportunity, the bigger your possible upside.
Systems Create Consistency
Another core characteristic of seasoned investors is that they are system-dependent.
New Users usually look for Offers by chance. They browse listings sporadically, do research on properties erratically and rely frequently on gut instinct when making decisions. So, what about professional investors? They do things a little differently.
They create methodologies enabling them to assess markets, monitor opportunities and review deals on a repeatable basis.
Such systems help them mine a vast amount of information and keep their attention on only those opportunities that are truly worthy of being noticed.
This takes a lot of the guesswork out of investing. Instead of relying on luck to find a great opportunity, build processes that help you find it. The same is true of entrepreneurship.
Successful growing businesses are rarely built on occasional effort. They depend on systems that allow progress to be repeated.
The Best Opportunities Don’t Tend to Look Perfect
An exciting lesson about investing is that great opportunities are seldom perfect at first sight.
Examples include:

A fixer-upper may turn off plenty of buyers

An early neighborhood may look precarious

An owner wanting to sell fast could raise suspicions

But seasoned investors tend to see such situations in a different light.
Instead of looking only at what seems imperfect today, they ask a more potent question:
What will this be in the future?
That change in vantage point changes everything. Many successful investments started as situations that were passed over because they seemed difficult or cluttered.
Those investors willing to dig deeper into these opportunities often find unrecognized value.
Entrepreneurs follow a similar pattern. Avoiding problems others rejected created some of the most successful companies. Opportunity frequently hides inside imperfection.
Curiosity Keeps Investors Ahead
Another characteristic shared by successful investors is curiosity.
They are always asking about how markets develop. They monitor changes in neighborhoods, follow economic trends and seek out new information sources. This curiosity helps them stay at the forefront of new trends.
Markets are fickle, and those investors who stay curious are much more likely to spot new opportunities for investment early on in the process.
This mindset is advantageous for entrepreneurs, too.
Staying open to learning and discovering new things often leads one to insights that the majority skip because of their tendency towards sticking with dogma. Curiosity is, in many ways, what keeps opportunity on our radar.
Final Thoughts
The small secret tactic successful investors use to hunt down deals before anyone else isn’t based on any insider know-how or incredible good fortune. It is a matter of a new perception of the market.
In the face of frothy prices, mature investors look for missed indications. They learn patterns, develop systems and remain curious about market evolution. Above all, they learn to see possibility before it seems clear.
It doesn’t matter if you’re investing in real estate or building a business, the lesson is very clear: The best opportunities are rarely owned by people who stumble into them first. They belong to those who learn how to see them before everyone else does.
The post The Strategy Successful Investors Use to Find Deals Before Anyone Else appeared first on Addicted 2 Success.

You filed your taxes early this year, maybe even celebrated a refund that came in hundreds of dollars higher than expected. The government promised you record refunds under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the IRS data confirms they delivered.The average refund climbed to $3,676 as of early March, up more than 10% from the same period last year, according to IRS filing-season data reported by CNBC. But before you could spend that money on catching up on bills, building savings, or tackling credit card debt, something else showed up first.It arrived quietly at the gas pump, tacked onto every fill-up, and it grew larger with each passing week of March 2026. The question you should be asking right now is not how much your refund was, but how much of it you have already burned through.Raymond James says oil’s surge could erase the entire tax-cut benefitA strategist’s note from Raymond James delivered the most direct warning of the season about what rising oil prices mean for your refund. Strategist Tavis McCourt wrote that a sustained $20-per-barrel increase in crude oil would effectively wipe out the fiscal benefit from the tax law.That math is blunt but simple, and here is the rule of thumb McCourt used in his analysis of the situation. Every $10 increase in the price of crude oil adds roughly 25 cents to the cost of a gallon of gasoline at the pump. A $20 move translates to approximately $150 billion in additional consumer spending on fuel alone, CNBC reported.That $150 billion figure is almost identical to the estimated consumer benefit from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act itself. The Tax Foundation estimates the law reduced individual income taxes for 2025 by roughly $129 billion, with private-sector analysis projecting up to $100 billion in higher refunds.Gas prices jumped from under $3 to $3.72 in less than three weeksThe national average for regular gasoline hit $3.718 per gallon on March 16, according to AAA’s daily fuel gauge. That price is a dramatic reversal from the start of the month, when Americans were paying under $3.00 per gallon for the first time since 2021.AAA reported on March 5 that the national average had jumped nearly 27 cents in just one week as crude oil prices surged. The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran pushed crude into the mid-$70 range and disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz.How the price surge unfolded through March 2026February 2026 average price per gallon stood at $2.91, according to EIA data compiled by LendingTree.March 3 average ticked up to $3.11, still manageable for most families filling up their weekly tanks.March 5 saw the national average spike to $3.25 after AAA reported a 27-cent weekly jump across the country.March 11 brought another jump to $3.58, according to Visual Capitalist’s state-by-state analysis of AAA data.March 14 prices climbed further to $3.67 nationally, with California topping $5.48 per gallon, per Yahoo Finance.March 16 data from AAA showed the national average at $3.718, with further increases possible if conflict persists.If you drive a vehicle with a 16-gallon tank, the jump from $2.91 to $3.72 means you are paying roughly $13 more per fill-up. Over four weekly fill-ups, that is an extra $52 per month pulled directly from your discretionary spending or refund savings.

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Low-income Americans feel the sharpest sting from this double squeezeThe wage gap between high-income and low-income Americans has widened to its largest level in roughly a decade, according to the Bank of America Institute’s February 2026 employment report.Higher-income household wages grew by 4.2% year-over-year in February 2026, while lower-income household wages grew by just 0.6%. That 3.6-percentage-point gap is the widest Bank of America has recorded since the beginning of its data series.What a 0.6% wage increase really means at the pumpIf you earn $35,000 annually and your wages grow by 0.6%, your pre-tax pay will increase by roughly $210 for the entire year. Spread across 12 months, that comes to about $17.50 per month in additional gross income before taxes and deductions.Now compare that to the $52 per month in additional gas spending from the price surge outlined above for regular commuters. Your wage increase does not even cover the extra cost of fuel, and that is before you factor in food, rent, and utilities.More Personal Finance:Why selling a home to your child for a dollar can backfireElon Musk says ‘universal high income’ is comingFTC, 21 states sue Uber over ‘shady’ subscription billingGabriel Shahin, CEO of Falcon Wealth Planning, told CNBC that higher oil prices are redirecting tax refund cash directly toward energy costs. He described it as essentially voiding out the economic boost that refund season was expected to deliver this spring.Your 2026 tax refund was supposed to be a record breakerThe average federal tax refund this filing season reached $3,676 as of March 6, up 10.6% from $3,324 at the same point in 2025. That jump was driven largely by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which created retroactive tax cuts that most workers never adjusted their withholding to reflect.Key provisions that boosted refunds for 2025 tax returnsNo tax on tips for workers in qualifying occupations, capped at $25,000 per year via a new above-the-line deduction.No tax on overtime pay, with a deduction of up to $12,500 for eligible workers under income-phase-out limits.Higher standard deduction that was extended from the 2017 tax cuts, preventing a scheduled increase in tax bills.SALT deduction cap raised from $10,000 to $40,000, benefiting itemizers in high-tax states like New York and California.Enhanced child tax credit set at $2,200 per qualifying child, with $1,700 of that amount refundable for eligible families.New $6,000 senior deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older, providing up to $9.3 billion in aggregate tax savings.Because the IRS did not adjust paycheck withholding tables immediately after the law passed in July 2025, millions of workers overpaid throughout the second half of the year. That excess withholding is now flowing back to taxpayers as unusually large refunds, per Tax Foundation analysis.Most refunds have not even arrived yet, and gas prices keep climbingCitadel Securities estimated that only about 30% of total tax refunds had been distributed by March 1, 2026. That figure is expected to rise to roughly 75% by May 1, which means the bulk of refund cash is still on its way.The timing creates a painful collision for you if you were counting on that money to catch up financially after the holidays. Your refund arrives in late March or April, and by the time it hits your bank account, weeks of elevated gas spending have already chipped away at it.Related: Trump’s tariff refunds are coming, but not to your wallet yetBloomberg economists estimated that if oil hovers around $83 per barrel, the higher energy costs would offset nearly all of the consumer benefits from the tax law. Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, told CNBC that her projections for the consumer hit from oil prices mirror her estimates of tax-law savings.Retailers and restaurants already feel spending pulling back from higher fuel costs.Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma reported that executives across consumer-facing industries are bracing for weaker discretionary spending as gas costs rise. Dollar General issued a cautious outlook specifically because of expected ongoing pressure on lower-income consumers who make up its core customer base.How companies are adapting to the shift in consumer behaviorAutozone executives said higher fuel costs may push some drivers to repair current vehicles rather than purchase new ones.McDonald’s CFO Ian Borden said before the oil spike that larger refunds would boost traffic, but that thesis is now in question.J.P. Morgan noted an extreme scenario where some consumers reconsider EVs as an alternative to paying $3.70-plus for gasoline.Wholesale retailers like Costco and BJ’s may gain foot traffic from selling gas 20 cents cheaper than competitors.Raymond James strategist McCourt added context that consumer discretionary stocks have already underperformed the S&P 500 in 2026. That underperformance signals the market was never pricing in a strong surge of refund-driven consumer spending to begin with.Five steps to protect your refund dollars from disappearing at the pumpYou cannot control the price of crude oil or the pace of military conflict in the Middle East that is driving prices higher. But you do control how you deploy your tax refund, and acting with a clear plan makes a measurable difference in your finances.Practical steps you can take right now with your refundDeposit your refund before you spend it. Transfer the full amount into a high-yield savings account paying 4% or more before directing any portion toward purchases or bills.Calculate your actual monthly fuel increase. Compare your January gas spending to your March gas spending and multiply the difference by the months you expect prices to stay elevated.Pay down high-interest debt first. If you carry credit card balances at 20% or higher, directing refund dollars toward that debt saves you more than any investment return.Update your W-4 for 2026 immediately. The IRS is adjusting withholding tables this year, and failing to update your form could leave you under-withheld or over-withheld again. Use the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator to check.Explore fuel rewards and wholesale memberships. Costco consistently sells gas at roughly 20 cents below the local average, and many credit cards offer 3% to 5% cash back on gas station purchases.Oil prices may take months to normalize even after the conflict endsRaymond James strategist McCourt pointed out that after the Gulf War in 1990 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, oil prices took roughly six months to return to pre-conflict levels. That historical pattern suggests you should plan for elevated gas prices through at least the end of summer 2026.Wolfe Research’s Stephanie Roth told CNBC that the impact on gas prices so far has been short-lived relative to how it may ultimately play out. She cautioned that oil prices would need to remain above $100 per barrel for an extended period to fully offset the tax-law benefits.Dan Niles, portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management, offered a different perspective, framing the situation more optimistically. He argued that the larger-than-usual tax refunds are actually helping the economy absorb the oil-price shock rather than collapsing under it.The labor market will ultimately determine whether consumer spending buckles or simply shifts from discretionary purchases toward energy costs. McCourt noted that sustained pullbacks in consumer spending have historically required substantial job losses to materialize in the broader economy.Your refund is real, but so is the invisible tax at the pump.The record-setting refund season that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised is technically here, with average refunds running 10.6% higher than last year. But the purchasing power of those refund dollars has been quietly eroded by a gas-price surge that most Americans did not see coming in February.You still have a meaningful financial opportunity if you received a larger refund this spring from the OBBBA tax provisions. The key is recognizing that the refund and the gas-price spike are two sides of the same economic coin in spring 2026.Treating your refund as an emergency buffer rather than a spending windfall puts you ahead of the majority of Americans this tax season. The analysts are clear that the math is working against you, so the best thing you can do is make the math work within your household.Related: Tax deductions and credits you don’t want to miss

Luinder Avila is toting a WBC gold medal back to the Kansas City Royals’ spring camp. Manager Matt Quatraro is happier that the right-hander’s electric pitches are back

The SEC’s approval lets Nasdaq test blockchain-based versions of stocks that trade and settle like traditional shares.

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.Why we love this dealIt’s not just your closet and wardrobe that can benefit from a seasonal shakeup. Your heavy winter blankets and bedspreads can become stuffy and unbearably hot as the weather begins to warm up outside. Rather than tossing and turning, trying to find a cool spot throughout the night, switch up your bedding with something breathable and more lightweight that lets you snooze in peace. Bedding doesn’t just affect the quality of your sleep, but it also has an impact on the overall look of your bedroom, so the style is just as important a consideration. One option we love for spring and summer, due to its lightweight construction and adorable appearance, is the Homespun iEnjoy Home Wild Flower 3-Piece Reversible Duvet Cover Set at Nordstrom Rack. Even better, this charming cottagecore-inspired duvet cover and two matching pillow shams is 20% off for the full/queen-size, bringing the price down to just $40. The twin XL and king/California king sizes are also on sale for $32 and $45, respectively.Homespun iEnjoy Home Wild Flower 3-Piece Reversible Duvet Cover Set, $40 (was $50) at Nordstrom Rack

Courtesy of Nordstrom Rack

Shop at Nordstrom RackWhy do shoppers love it?The delightful pattern on this 3-piece bedding set displays neatly arranged blooming flower branches. The variety of florals offers splashes of baby blue, light pink, and mustard yellow for a pop of color that doesn’t overwhelm the bedroom. You’ll find this pattern on the front of the duvet cover and two pillow shams, and on the opposite side, the bedding showcases a solid pastel pink. When you feel like changing it up, you can mix and match these sides to transform the look of your bed. Elegant in its simplicity, this charming duvet set could blend with numerous decor styles, from vintage cottage and rustic farmhouse to boho eclectic. “I love the look of the room — it’s the perfect finishing touch,” raved one reviewer. They also reported, “The fabric is lovely, soft, and comfortable.”Related: Amazon is selling a 7-piece bedding set for $37 that comes in 24 colorsCrafted from premium microfiber, the bedding is made to be ultra-soft. Additionally, this material is fade-resistant, wrinkle-resistant, and machine washable, so it’s easy to maintain and care for on laundry day. Microfiber is a solid choice for warm weather, as the fabric is lightweight and fast-drying, but it’s not breathable, which may be a downside for some shoppers. If this is the one potential concern, it likely won’t be an issue since you can pair the duvet with breathable sheets, like cotton, linen, or bamboo.Details to know Sizes available: The duvet set comes in twin XL, full/queen, and king/California king sizes.Material: 100% microfiber.Is it machine-washable?: Yes.With an average rating of 4.5 out of five stars, this bedding set is a popular choice among shoppers. “This duvet is exactly the beautiful touch my daughter’s bed needed,” raved one reviewer. They also said it’s “light and cool, perfect for summer!”Duvet sets are different from your traditional comforter or quilt sets, because they require an additional piece: the duvet insert. A duvet is basically a plain comforter, and you can better adjust the bedding to your needs, because you can choose your preferred thickness, weight, material, and warmth. If you don’t currently own a duvet insert, we found some deals on Nordstrom Rack to consider.Shop more dealsModern Threads Down Alternative Reversible Comforter, $28 (was $60) at Nordstrom RackHomespun Cotton Comforter Duvet Insert, $83 (was $139) at Nordstrom RackSouthshore Fine Linens Vilano Down Alternative Comforter, $61 (was $65) at Nordstrom RackUpgrade your bedroom for the warm weather ahead with a side of serious style with the Homespun iEnjoy Home Wild Flower 3-Piece Reversible Duvet Cover Set for just $40 at Nordstrom Rack. 

Easter is Sunday, April 5. And if you haven’t made plans yet, hop to it.

The crypto sector’s leading political action committee devoted more than 5% of its war chest trying to defeat a Senate candidate who just won her primary.

Fed chair Jerome Powell said rising energy prices are feeding into the inflation outlook, but “nobody knows” yet how lasting the impact will be.