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Lacy Hunt Turns Bearish Bonds: Studying His Reversal

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Economist Lacy Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most money managers have been in the business.

Recently, he made a surprising U-turn on his bullish stance. The following paragraph opens his Second Quarter Review and Outlook.

The structural backdrop for U.S. inflation increasingly suggests that the long-run equilibrium range is migrating from roughly1.5–3.5% toward 3.5–4.5%, with a significant risk of episodes of inflation above 5%. An important core reason is the steady erosion of the disinflationary architecture that dominated the 1990–2020 period, even as various cyclical pressures also play a role.

For nearly four decades, Lacy Hunt has been pounding the table for lower yields. As chief economist of Hoisington Investment Management, Hunt bought long-term bonds, betting that globalization and excessive debt impede economic growth, keeping a lid on inflation and interest rates. Despite the extraordinary monetary efforts to stem the 2008 financial crisis, the decade of extremely loose monetary policy following the crisis and even through the pandemic-related surge in the money supply and high inflation, Hunt held his deflationist line.

So, when Lacy Hunt and his partner Van Hoisington posted their Second Quarter Review and Outlook titled “Capital Scarcity and the End of Globalization’s Disinflationary Era,” heads turned. Backing their words with action, Hoisington Investment Management, managed by Hunt and Hoisington, sharply reduced their clients’ bond duration and put the proceeds in Treasury bills.

That reversal of such long-held opinions deserves serious attention. We provide a summary of their new views and some counterpoints to help you assess their new stance.

Our objective in this article is not to support Lacy Hunt or rebut his work, but to present his case and accompanying data to help you better assess his warning.

A Broken Production Function

Lacy Hunt’s basic bond bullish thesis for the last thirty-plus years rested on the core economic framework that economic output is a function of labor, capital, technology, and resources. Thus, anticipating changes to those four factors is paramount to forecasting output and inflation.

Hunt argues that the collapse of the Iron Curtain and China’s entry into global trade, along with economic globalization involving many other countries, introduced “One of the largest positive supply shocks in modern economic history.”

Hundreds of millions of low-cost workers entered the global economy, with manufacturing concentrating in the regions that could do so most cost efficiently. Simply, those countries that could produce at the cheapest costs did so to the benefit of the global economy. From the US perspective, outsourcing production resulted in cheaper goods.

Moreover, with enhanced global trade, global capital flows increased, and resources became more abundant. Further, because of the dollar’s reserve status, steadily increasing global trade boosted demand for US dollars and dollar investments like US Treasury debt.

Deflationary Debt

Hunt claims that the macroeconomic environment of the last 30 to 40 years helped explain why increasing debt levels were disinflationary. Per Hunt:

Diverted income away from consumption, restraining aggregate demand growth, while expanding global productive capacity absorbed liquidity and credit expansion without generating broad pricing pressure.

Further to his case, monetary velocity fell. Velocity calculates how often a dollar circulates through the economy. Inflation is a function of the supply of money and, often overlooked, the velocity of money. For the better part of the last 40 years, velocity declined as money was increasingly parked in financial assets rather than investments in plant and equipment or consumption. Corporate executives increasingly favored financial engineering, like stock buybacks, over capital investments. This inflated financial asset prices while doing little for the economy’s underlying productive capacity.

Hunt’s Shift

Hunt’s new stance appears to be predominantly based on three factors.

First, in his opinion, globalization is reversing. Tariffs, reshoring and friendshoring, alongside security-related trade protectionism, replace the “lowest-cost producer” model with a more expensive “secure and resilient producer” model.

Second, labor supply growth is slowing. The combination of lower birth rates, an aging population, and reduced immigration is decreasing the supply of labor, thus raising wage costs. Furthermore, with deglobalization, less outsourcing forces corporations to use more expensive labor domestically.

Third is capital scarcity. AI data centers, electrical grid modernization, and semiconductor fabs are all vying for the same scarce pool of capital, commodities, and skilled labor. At the same time, government deficits require significant capital, and it comes at a time when the national savings rate is near historic lows.  

Hunt’s Argument Versus Data

While Hunt makes a very convincing argument, we must analyze recent and historical data to see if the trends he envisions are starting to play out.

Inflation Expectations

The market isn’t buying into Hunt’s inflation forecast.  As we share below, the 5-, 10-, and 30-year breakeven inflation rates, as determined by TIPS and nominal Treasury securities, are at the same level they have been for the last four years and not that different from the post-financial crisis era. For context, Hunt is forecasting a 3.5-4.5% equilibrium range, and “episodes above 5%” which he flags as a real risk.

While expected long-term inflation hasn’t budged, long-term real yields have risen appreciably as shown below.

Given that Treasury yields are a function of expected inflation, current inflation, and the term premium, the graphs suggest that the term premium is largely to blame for higher interest rates. Investors are demanding higher yields as they are likely worried about the government’s growing borrowing needs alongside the massive capital being allocated to AI. This feeds into Hunt’s scarcity-of-capital argument, which we discuss next.

Capital Scarcity- Savings Rate

The United States appears to be entering a period in which the demand for capital is rising far faster than the domestic supply of saving.

Debt must be financed by domestic saving, foreign capital, or government intervention like quantitative easing (QE). A low domestic savings rate, shown below, means a greater reliance on the other funding sources. Hunt warns that expanding the money supply via increasing the Fed balance sheet (QE) can help the scarcity problem, but it can also drive inflation higher.

The U.S. has operated with a low net national saving rate for most of the last twenty-five years. This shortfall of an important funding source for US Treasury debt has in part been financed by foreign capital requiring dollar assets and QE at times. Despite the recent bout of higher inflation, poor bond returns, large fiscal deficits, and recent policy actions like tariffs, the international inflow of capital to the US Treasury has continued to grow, offsetting the low saving rate.

Whether we can continue to depend on foreign investors depends heavily on the dollar’s reserve-currency status, a variable Hunt’s letter doesn’t directly address.

We view the military actions in Venezuela and Iran, as well as some recent trade deals, as viable attempts to strengthen the dollar’s reserve currency status, thus bolstering foreign demand for US debt.

Furthermore, forcing crypto stablecoins to hold US Treasury securities as collateral should provide a multi-trillion-dollar source of new funding for the Treasury.

QE

Hunt mentions QE as another possible source of future deficit funding. He views this as inflationary. To wit, he provides recent evidence:

Substantial liquidity injections occurred from mid-December 2025 through June 2026. In this period, the Federal Reserve purchased approximately $290 billion of Treasury securities, igniting a surge in bank deposits and loans. ODL rose at a torrid 8.9% annualized rate in this year’s first six months—more than 1.6 times faster than its ten-year compounded growth rate… This Fed-driven liquidity event, along with the recovery in velocity, may explain a sharp February reacceleration in inflation prior to the latest geopolitical energy shock.

Hunt assumes that a recent seven-month bout of QE was inflationary. It may have been, but the graph below shows a weak but negative historical correlation between QE and inflation.

Hunt does concede that QE may not be an inflationary concern. He credits Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s balance-sheet restraint as “an important monetary offset to fiscal expansion.”

Warsh, a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, was arguably the Fed’s most consistent skeptic of asset purchases, and after his term ended, he became one of the most vocal outside critics. Warsh as the Fed chair, on its face, is a bet against the QE playbook Hunt says just reignited inflation. Hunt’s 3.5 – 4.5% inflation range may hold water if fiscal and market pressures overwhelm Warsh’s instincts.

Global Trade

President Trump has imposed tariffs and other protectionist measures on many imported products. He has also incentivized domestic companies to shift production back home. While the actions may appear to have an anti-globalization impact, the data so far tell a different story.

Global trade, exports plus imports relative to world GDP, climbed to an estimated 68.5% in 2025, the highest level in 46 years, per the World Bank. Moreover, despite Trump’s trade policies, 2025’s 68.5% was a big jump from 56.7% in 2024. If tariffs and reshoring were meaningfully unwinding globalization, that ratio would be flat or falling. Similarly, the US trade deficit is bouncing around the same levels as it was under President Biden and worse than any reading before 2020.

AI And Productivity

Moving on to AI and productivity, Hunt rightly blames the capital intensity of building data centers and the resulting upgrades to the electrical grid for making capital scarcer and pushing interest rates higher. However, he gives little weight to the possibility that AI-driven productivity gains show up sooner rather than later and act as a disinflationary force, much as prior technology waves eventually did.

In our opinion, it is unknown when the productivity benefits of AI, including lower inflation, will ease the capital scarcity argument. History shows that the benefits could accrue rapidly or they could take time.

Summary

None of the recent evidence we share indicates Lacy Hunt will be wrong. He is forecasting a regime change to the macroeconomic environment that recent data trends haven’t picked up on. 

Hunt also acknowledges his forecast is not necessarily that of higher interest rates. He writes:   

The result is not a simple forecast of continuously rising interest rates, but rather a more volatile interest-rate regime.

He notes that a recession, a favorable supply shock, or successful balance-sheet restraint under Chairman Warsh could still deliver lower inflation and falling rates. His Treasury Bill purchases appear to be not just a bet on higher inflation and a sustained high term premium, but equally a desire to avoid volatility in the long end of the curve.

While we have the utmost respect for Lacy Hunt, we must remember that he is making a forecast, an educated guess. His warnings may prove correct. But he is forecasting a big change in the way the global economy operates and its impact on capital flows. Further, he is making assumptions about one of the greatest technological innovations that is just in its infancy.

Might the Covid echo be coming to an end and the historical disinflationary trends of the last forty years be reasserting themselves, or are we in the early innings of the macroeconomic regime change Hunt is calling for?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/12/2026 – 11:00

Lolo Jones is not backing down after a harrowing experience with Team USA.In February 2025, Jones climbed into a team-issued bobsled at the Olympic training complex in Lake Placid, New York. The U.S. team was testing equipment before the World Championships. The sled accelerated down the ice at speeds approaching 90 mph.At the bottom of the track, Jones knew something was wrong.Her lower back burned. She could not bend over. She had lost control of her bladder.”I’ve never had that happen to me ever in (my) life,” Jones said. “I immediately went up to the athletic trainer and told him what was happening.”Jones was no inexperienced athlete struggling to read her body. She competed at the 2008 and 2012 Summer Olympics as a hurdler and the 2014 Winter Olympics as a bobsled brakewoman. She had won world championships in both sports.She understood pain. This felt different.SIMONE BILES RETURNS TO HOSPITAL FOR PROCEDURE WEEKS AFTER ‘ALMOST DYING’ IN ‘MEDICAL EMERGENCY’A trainer arranged a treatment for her, but Jones says the head of sports medicine at the Lake Placid training center canceled it because she had already received treatment that week.Jones arrived for the appointment without knowing it had been canceled.She was hurt, frightened and days away from the biggest race of the season. TENNESSEE COACH UNLOADS ON NCAA’S ‘BULLS–T’, AFTER STAR LINEBACKER SUSPENDED FOR OUTDATED RULEThen Jones received notice that officials had revoked her access to sports medicine, she says, and a broader ban later kept her out of the Olympic training facility, including its rehabilitation areas, weight room, housing and push track.The notice said her behavior violated the facility’s code of conduct, she says, but Jones claims officials never identified the specific rule she broke or gave her a formal hearing before imposing the punishment.According to reporting by the Southern California News Group, Jones and other people familiar with the case said USOPC officials later acknowledged that the approved treatment should not have been canceled. Jones apologized during a meeting before the World Championships.The restrictions remained.SIMONE BILES FIRES BACK AT INSTAGRAM USERS WHO MOCKED HER NEAR-DEATH EXPERIENCE, REVEALS MEDICAL EMERGENCY”I voiced my frustration that athletes should have medical access,” Jones said. “It just continued to escalate.”The symptoms Jones described demanded more than a routine massage.Severe back pain combined with bladder dysfunction can signal compression of the nerves at the base of the spinal cord. The American Association of Neurological Surgeons lists urinary incontinence, leg weakness and severe lower-back pain among the warning signs of cauda equina syndrome, a medical emergency that can cause permanent paralysis or loss of bladder control.Jones says no one at the center examined her, ordered imaging or explained the possible severity of her injury.Without a diagnosis, she made the decision elite athletes often make. She kept going.Jones obtained pain medication from her doctor in Louisiana and returned to the sled for the World Championships in Lake Placid. She completed four runs with pilot Elana Meyers Taylor. They finished sixth.”If someone would’ve told me, ‘Your spinal fluid is leaking out of your back. If that pilot hits a wall, you will be paralyzed,’ there is no way I would’ve gotten back in that bobsled,” Jones said.After the championships, Jones paid for her own MRI. She says the imaging revealed a herniated disc, another disc bulge, several lumbar tears and a cerebrospinal-fluid leak. She later underwent spinal surgery.She also paid for rehabilitation, travel and private medical help while she remained barred from the training center. She estimates the injury and its aftermath cost her about $100,000.For Jones, the cost exposes a larger imbalance inside Olympic sports.Many bobsled athletes survive on modest stipends while absorbing significant training and travel expenses. Jones had income from work outside the sport, but she says the bills still devastated her finances.”I make good money, but I’m not making Michael Phelps money,” she said.CLICK HERE FOR MORE SPORTS COVERAGE ON FOXNEWS.COMJones now argues that Olympic athletes need stronger due-process protections and an affordable way to challenge the institutions that control their medical care, funding and competitive futures. She says the current grievance system costs too much and gives athletes little realistic power against governing bodies.The experience has also changed how she views the Olympics themselves.Jones once imagined that a future daughter might follow her into elite sports. She no longer sees that possibility as a dream.SIGN UP TO GET THE LATEST SPORTS NEWS”I will not let my daughter be an Olympic athlete,” she said. “She will not be treated like this.”For more than 20 years, Jones pushed her body for Team USA. She raced through injuries, changed sports and represented the country in both the Summer and Winter Games.When her body finally forced her to ask for help, she says the system treated her pain as a disciplinary problem.”I’ve given so much to Team USA and represented this country as best I can,” Jones said. “And when I needed Team USA back, they absolutely abandoned me.”

This story discusses suicide. If you or someone you know is having thoughts of suicide, please contact the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline at 988 or 1-800-273-TALK (8255).A Florida sheriff’s deputy, honored multiple times for his bravery, dedication and compassion, killed a former girlfriend and then himself Monday after an argument over a television.The victim was identified by friends as Mandy Fackler, who leaves behind two children, 12 and 9, Fox Tampa reported.Deputy Troy Savetz had been with the Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office for 14 years and was a member of the marine unit.He and the victim had an “on-again-off-again, tumultuous relationship,” Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri said in a news conference.MISSOURI MOM OF 5 FATALLY SHOT WHILE BUYING SLUSHIES WITH CHILDREN; POLICE SEARCH FOR GUNMANSavetz, 47, was waiting outside Fackler’s home when she and her children returned from a day at the beach at about 5:30 p.m. He brandished a gun and was angry about “wanting his TV set back,” Gualtieri said.When the victim tried to call 911, Savetz took her phone. That’s when she told her two children to go inside.They did as they were told. And they never saw her again.The children were “extremely brave,” calling 911 and giving dispatchers everything needed to identify the suspect, Pasco County Sheriff Chris Nocco told reporters.When authorities arrived at the home, they saw the mother’s vehicle with the door wide open, and they found her phone, Nocco said.”At that point, they realize that she’s no longer there” at the residence, he said.Officers sprang into action using K-9 teams, drones and aviation units, searching for the vehicle Savetz was driving when he carried the victim away, Nocco said.About 90 minutes after the altercation began, authorities found the vehicle in nearby Spring Hill. Officers approached with a drone and saw two people inside.When they reached the car on foot, they found Savetz and his victim dead.”We’re not sure when and at what point” he killed her and himself, Nocco said.The children, now with their biological father, were unharmed in the incident.DISPATCH AUDIO RELEASED IN MICHIGAN FAMILY MURDER-SUICIDE AS TROUBLED FAMILY’S SECRETS EMERGEThey “should be starting off this week getting ready for school,” Nocco said. Instead, they’re “starting off this week getting ready for a sad life without their mother.”He praised the children for their bravery and obedience at such a critical moment.”I know eventually there’s going to be a point in your life where you’re going to go back and listen to all the videos and read all the reports,” Nocco said.”So please hear this directly from us: We listened to that 911 tape, and we know that your mother said to go inside to save your lives and to call 911. You did exactly what your mom asked you to do.”Know this: Your mom is looking down from heaven, and she’s so proud of you two … So know that you two did the right thing.”Nocco said officers were “amazed” by the children’s “calmness.” The information they provided allowed for the fastest possible response.”So we’re so proud of you, and I know your mom is. But know [that] this entire community is praying for you.”OFF-DUTY TROOPER AND ARMED CITIZEN HAILED AS HEROES AFTER RETURNING FIRE ON IN-N-OUT GUNMANBefore this, Savetz had earned accolades for his behavior while wearing the badge. In 2014, he was honored by the sheriff’s office for his “heroic action” in saving the life of a 24-year-old man, stopping him from jumping off a bridge in Pinellas County.That earned him attention from the Tampa Bay Rays baseball team, who called him “Our Everyday MVP” in a June 2015 social media post. Wearing his green uniform, Savetz was honored by receiving the opportunity to throw out a ceremonial first pitch.He was hailed a “hero” at local fundraisers and by radio stations.In 2018, the sheriff’s office shared a social media post about how Savetz had adopted a pot-bellied pig he found while on duty. That year, he and Maple, as she became known, went on to be named ambassadors for the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals in Tampa Bay.But the “inexcusable” behavior of Savetz immediately ended his identity as a law enforcement officer, Gualtieri said.”The moment this individual committed a crime, he was no longer a law enforcement officer. He was a criminal.”

Wiki Commons
Too old to rock and roll, too young to die.
As the stars from the golden age of rock plow along in their 70s and 80s, medical issues, cancellations, and even sudden retirements have become a common occurrence.
This year, we’ve had 85-year-old Beach Boys’ Mike Love canceling his summer 2026 North American tour dates to ‘recharge’, while Neil Young (81) canceled his 2026 European tour to ‘take a break’.
The Who’s Roger Daltrey (82) says his 2026 solo U.S. tour is ‘possibly’ his last, as The Rolling Stones scrapped UK/Europe stadium tour plans due to Keith Richards’ (83) arthritis concerns.
Deep Purple’s Glenn Hughes (75) is retiring from touring in the run-up to open-heart surgery, while 76-year-old Max Carl from Grand Funk Railroad is retiring from touring due to a medical issue, and The Eagles’ Don Henley (78) had indicated that 2026 would likely be his final year of touring…
The list goes on…
Today, it was British rock icon Sir Rod Stewart: he has cancelled the remainder of his US tour – including a Las Vegas residency – after undergoing heart surgery.

Rod Stewart undergoes heart surgery and cancels all upcoming shows pic.twitter.com/v0s5czorfX
— The Sun (@TheSun) August 12, 2026

Sky News reported:
“The 81-year-old star shared the news on social media, telling fans he is ‘already feeling better’ after successfully undergoing a routine coronary stent procedure.”
He will reportedly take four weeks off recovering before returning to the stage.
He cancelled shows in Iowa, Missouri and Minnesota, as well as a six-night residency at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, Nevada.
“‘I’m already feeling better and very much on the mend’, he told his 1.7m followers in a message on Instagram. ‘I want to thank the doctors, nurses and everyone who has taken such wonderful care of me’.”

Singer Rod Stewart was given oxygen before continuing his performance in West Valley City, Utah, on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/aB8hrmFUvy
— NTD News (@NTDNews) June 24, 2026

Read more:
‘The Show Must Go On’: Classic Rocker Rod Stewart Pauses Show in Utah After Nearly Fainting, Uses Oxygen Tank

The post Classic Rocker Rod Stewart Cancels Remainder of His US Tour After Cardiac Surgery appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

Josh Kushner, Bob Iger Stun Sports World With Record-Shattering $12 Billion Lakers Takeover Deal

The Los Angeles Lakers are being sold to billionaire venture capitalist Josh Kushner, founder of Thrive Capital, and former Disney CEO Bob Iger for a record-breaking $12 billion, according to a new ESPN report.

The sports news website said:

The businessmen were involved in the expansion process in Las Vegas, but in a stunning turn, they pivoted to make an aggressive offer to buy the Lakers from Mark Walter, who had purchased a controlling interest in the team from the Buss family last year for a franchise valuation of approximately $10 billion.

The $12 billion buyout price implies an increase of at least 20% in the Lakers’ value in less than a year.

Josh Kushner, the younger brother of Jared Kushner, and Iger released the following statement:

“As lifelong NBA fans, we are deeply honored for the opportunity to become stewards of the Los Angeles Lakers, one of the most iconic sports franchises in the world. We have immense respect for the leadership and vision of Jerry and Jeanie Buss.

“Our long-term commitment is to build on that foundation, compete at the highest level, and serve this extraordinary team, its fans, and the city of Los Angeles.”

TWG Global CEO Mark Walter, who purchased control of the Lakers from the Buss family last year at a valuation of about $10 billion, has a sports holdings portfolio that includes stakes in the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Sparks, Chelsea Football Club, the Professional Women’s Hockey League and several auto-racing teams, including Cadillac Formula 1.

“Owning the Los Angeles Lakers has been one of the great honors of my life, an extraordinary investment, but what I will carry with me is the community, the fans, and a city that treats this team as family. I am grateful to Jeanie Buss, the Buss family, the players, and the staff for welcoming me into this chapter. The Lakers belong to Los Angeles, and I have every confidence the best is still ahead,” Walter said in a statement.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/12/2026 – 10:45

Trump: US Controls Hormuz Strait, ‘I Think We Will Keep It’ – Confirms Economic Siege Strategy

Trump Claims ‘Total Control’ of Hormuz

In his latest Wednesday Truth Social post, Trump issues a familiar refrain (one that will likely be on repeat up to the November midterms), claiming that the USA has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz and “I think we will keep it”. It’s also yet more confirmation that he’s opting for economic siege warfare as the US military campaign is on halt. He also did his bizarre “Praise be to Allah!” sign off…

Iran’s Military Leadership: ‘Victory is on Our Side’

It has become beyond obvious that there is no broader peace process and that things are in a stalemated situation amid what’s broadly seen as a Washington retreat from military confrontation, leaving Iran to press its own vision of management over the Strait of Hormuz with Oman.

While President Trump has settled into a waiting game which once again bets on sanctions and economic warfare to eventually force Tehran to bend, Iranian military leaders are declaring that “victory is on our side”.
Prior file image via Asia Sentinel

Iran Becomes ‘Survival Economy’

The Wall Street Journal has noted that the Islamic Republic has entered a ‘survival economy’ with the country’s rulers “taking time-tested steps to keep their chronically battered economy functioning just enough to resist a drawn-out campaign.”

There’s no doubt that infrastructure along with various key industries and the Iranian currency has been severely tested and battered, but the WSJ outlines strategies of this survival mode as follows:

Tehran is rationing scarce goods, limiting access to foreign currency, slashing investment and shifting more of the burden onto households while preserving strategic imports and the essential machinery of the state, analysts say. The result will be a deepening economic malaise that leads to rising poverty and dysfunction, but also more room for Iran’s leaders to stall talks with the U.S.

That leaves Trump’s strategy resting on a risky assumption that Iran will crack before Washington does. Mediators have warned their U.S. counterparts that Iran has been living under sanctions for years and betting that Tehran will compromise because of economic pressure won’t likely yield results. Instead, Iran will likely continue to escalate attacks to raise the price for Washington and its allies.

Such a ‘risky assumption’ was on display from even the very start of Operation Epic Fury nearly six months ago and nothing has fundamentally changed in terms of the Iranian system ‘cracking’. Within merely the first two weeks of war back in early March, we highlighted some of Washington’s persisting false assumptions in: Escalation Trap: Misreading Iran’s Internal Power Dynamics.

Stalled Talks, Maximum Conditions

Meanwhile, Gulf and regional mediators are still clinging to hope that some form of ceasefire can limp along and be put back in full force, also with efforts to get the US and Iran talking again. As a Wednesday, per Bloomberg:

Pakistan said the 60-day deadline for a US-Iran MoU may be extended, but the larger peace process has stalled. Earlier, Donald Trump said the US “totally” controls the Strait of Hormuz. Oil wavered. 

Neither of these things are true – at this point the MoU is dead with Iran weeks ago having already pulled out while declaring in null. Also, if the US military ‘totally’ controlled the strait then there would be no crisis that must be ‘resolved’ and global oil would be transiting at full tilt again.

🇮🇷 “Certainly, victory is on our side.”
In an interview with PBS, senior IRGC adviser Mohammad Reza Naqdi said Iran has thwarted Washington’s objectives, learned how to fight the U.S. military and may prolong the war until the next American presidency to impose sustained costs… pic.twitter.com/K5cXNPRgQL
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) August 12, 2026
The latest from Reuters further observes that “The US and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate attacks on shipping as prospects for ending the Iran war appeared to dim, with Tehran saying the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless Washington accepts its conditions.”

‘Absolutely No Progress’

Mohsen Rezaee, the newly appointed head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has informed China’s ambassador to Tehran, Cong Peiwu: “As long as America does not change its behaviour and does not accept Iran’s conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened.”

But so far on Wednesday there’s been an uneasy quiet, so at least the bombs have fallen silent. But on Wednesday Reuters while citing mediators has painted a grim picture: “There has been absolutely no progress on this issue,” the [Pakistani government] source added…

“There is no talk of an extension because, from Iran’s perspective, there is ​no period that began and therefore nothing to extend. The ​United States violated the interim agreement 48 hours after it was reached and ‌withdrew ⁠from it a few days later,” the source told Reuters.

In the agreement, the 60-day period refers to an extendable timeframe within which Iran and the U.S. were expected to reach a final deal ​limiting Tehran’s nuclear ​program and lifting ⁠U.S. sanctions.

“One of the issues that is being discussed via mediators is the U.S. returning to the ⁠interim ​agreement and defining a timeframe for implementing ​the commitments. There has been absolutely no progress on this issue,” the source added.”https://t.co/pqc9L848BC
— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) August 12, 2026
Overnight Developments

US President Trump said they totally control the Strait of Hormuz, while he said regarding the flight change during the return trip from Turkey in early July that he was following what the Secret Service said and the plane he flew on was at greater risk. Furthermore, Trump said that he doesn’t trust Iran.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said it continues to activate direct and indirect diplomatic channels between the US and Iran and that they are working to bring both sides to the negotiating table in Islamabad. The Ministry added that they remain optimistic and not discouraged by escalations. Furthermore, the Ministry added that with the 60-day MoU deadline approaching, the deadline can be extended.
Pakistani Interior Minister is said to have given an important message to Iran.
Iranian Army official said Iran intends to maintain control and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz as a key source of its geopolitical power, Mehr News reported.
Iran’s IRGC said that if a threat against Iran occurs again, “hundreds of thousands of miles of energy transmission lines, thousands of power plants, all US and non-US systems, and even global infrastructure connected to the Internet are at risk,” Sepah reported.
Japanese PM Takaichi held a phone call with the Iranian President, on de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the security of maritime transit, Kyodo reported, citing sources.
Yemeni Deputy Foreign Minister said there has been no direct or indirect negotiations with the Houthis, Al ArabyTV reported.
Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon, according to IRIB.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/12/2026 – 10:45

WTI Dips After Massive Crude Inventory Build, Big SPR Drain, Surge In Imports

Oil prices are marginally lower this morning as OPEC again cut its forecast for global oil-demand growth for this year, but stalled talks to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway and risks in the Red Sea prolong disruptions to global supplies.

Physical disruptions are spreading beyond Hormuz. Refinery attacks and fires have hit Russia and Libya, while the Houthis claimed another attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan complex. The Red Sea has become a key alternative export route for the Kingdom, and Houthi attacks are putting that release valve under pressure.

Overnight saw API report a huge crude inventory build and 

API

Crude +9.1mm

Cushing +1.6mm

Gasoline -1.5mm

Distillates -600k

DOE

Crude +17.4mm (-1.4mm exp) – biggest build since Jan 2023

Cushing +1.61mm

Gasoline -968k

Distillates -10k

After API’s reported large build, the official data showed an almost unprecedented 17.4mm barrel build in crude stocks (the biggest since Jan 2023), Cushing saw another build while products saw draws for the second week in a row…

The massive oil stock build was driven by imports which rose to the highest level since November 2024. The US imported over a million barrels a day of oil last week, in part driven by a rise in Venezuelan imports and a return of Saudi Arabian oil. This is a sharp reversal from only a few months prior when oil was flowing abroad in massive quantities.

Net Imports at their highest since June 2025…

Stocks at the critical Cushing Hub are limping off ‘tank bottoms’…

As we detailed here, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw drawdowns re-accelerate last week (with 6.1mm barrels leaving the caves of salt), back below $300 million barrels to its lowest level since January 1983. Nevertheless, total commercial crude stocks rose 11.3mm barrels last week – the largest since February…

A total of 117 million barrels of crude has been taken out of the SPR since late March under a program to release 172 million barrels as part of a relief plan coordinated by the IEA aimed at lowering energy costs.

US Crude production also limped higher near record highs as the rig count continues to rise…

The oil stock build comes even as refiner runs rose and are sitting at the highest seasonal level since 2019. Fuel makers have signaled they intend to run harder-than-usual through the third quarter, a time when plants typically go down for maintenance.

WTI dipped back below $83 after the official data, holding gains from Friday’s close around $77…

Finally, as we noted yesterday, quoting Bloomberg macro strategist, Michael Ball, market structure reflects that stress better than outright prices. Brent and WTI curves remain backwardated and refining cracks are elevated, signaling near-term scarcity. Options are less aggressively bullish, with 25-delta call skews in both benchmarks dropping to their least bullish levels since July 10.

That points to a market vulnerable to spot disruptions while increasingly pricing a path toward de-escalation.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/12/2026 – 10:39

We are about halfway through August, and there are some teams that really need to make a push if they plan to have a true run at a postseason spot. We’ve seen some very hot and very cold stretches from a variety of teams this season, so who will be next? The National League has its divisions essentially set with the Dodgers, Braves, and Brewers looking like they will coast to the finish line. Both the Pirates and the Marlins are hoping to steal one of those remaining Wild Card spots.The Pittsburgh Pirates seem to have ebbed and flowed all season. There were stretches where they looked like one of the better teams in the league. Their hitting issues that were addressed in the offseason have been significantly better this year. However, their pitching has struggled. Even their superstar, Paul Skenes, has had a bit of a down year. His numbers are still strong, but they are the worst of his young career. If the Pirates can get some performances out of their other starters, they might have a hot streak left in them.One guy that they need to step up is today’s hurler, Carmen Mlodzinski. For the year, Mlodzinski is 6-4 for the year with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He has been better on the road with a 3.10 ERA, and he has started two more games on the road. However, he has just 1.1 more innings on the road than at home this year. Mlodzinski is essentially an opener for the Pirates. He hasn’t thrown more than three innings in any of his past 12 outings (varying between starts and relief appearances). Marlins hitters have only gotten four at-bats against him, but all four hitters went 0-for-1.The Miami Marlins have quietly put together a good campaign. You wouldn’t really know it because in this division almost everyone will get more attention than them. It doesn’t help that the franchise seems to always trade away any good player and doesn’t invest in their team. Maybe that’s more of a personal thought or frustration. In any case, the Marlins are 61-59 for the season and have been great at home. With the Braves and Phillies ahead of them, and the Mets being major markets, it is possible to lose sight of the Marlins.SIGN UP TO GET THE LATEST SPORTS NEWSSTAY “FEARLESS” ON THE GO! TAKE TOMI LAHREN WITH YOU. DOWNLOAD THE TLIF PODCAST NOW!Today they send out some Junk to the mound. Bad jokes aside, Janson Junk takes the hill for Miami today. For the season, Junk is sitting with a 5-7 record and a 4.63 ERA. He has just 62 strikeouts and a 1.36 WHIP over 81.2 innings. Most of the damage has been done by hits instead of walks, so there isn’t much of a control issue. He doesn’t pitch much more than five innings, typically. He hasn’t thrown more than five innings in any of his last eight outings. Aside from a six-run outing in July, he also hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start since May 25th (he missed all of June). Pirates hitters are 3-for-8 against Junk.This should be a game where we get some offense and some action. Neither pitcher is in a category where I would call them un-hittable. Neither team is likely to have their starter/opener go too deep into the game, either. Miami does have a better bullpen than Pittsburgh, so that might be a reason to bet on them to win, but I think we see more than eight runs scored in this game. Give me the Marlins and Pirates over 8 tonight.For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024

Down in New Orleans, artificial intelligence is deciding which 911 callers get to speak to a person and which do not.
The Orleans Parish Communication District is turning to technology to limit the calls humans handle, according to the Shreveport Times.
New Orleans began using AI this spring for non-emergency calls coming to its 311 line and is now rolling it out to an agency that takes about 1,000 calls per day.
Carbyne’s AI Emergency Call Triage, for example, sends what it thinks are multiple calls for one incident to an AI bot. They get an AI response if they are calling about a previously reported incident, but are transferred to a human if they are not.
AI is not being used to handle calls — only to route them to humans when needed, the OPCD said.
“If somebody calls about a relative having a heart attack, when that call is coming in, we don’t know what it is. Calls get answered in the order that they’re received,” Karl Fasold, executive director of the OPCD, said, according to WVUE-TV.
“If someone is available, the call goes to them. If no one is available, you go to queue. You get frustrated because you’re in a queue waiting, and you want to talk to somebody, and it results in my personnel handling calls back-to-back-to-back. So, there’s increased stress levels on both sides,” he said.
Fasold said not every 911 call is an emergency. He noted that car crash reports often get 20 calls per crash during rush hours.
“You can’t really staff for those occurrences of surges. It’s impossible, both fiscally and practically,” he said.
“What we have the AI doing is looking to see if you’re calling within 200 meters of somewhere we know that there’s an accident already. With the AI handling your incoming calls about the [motor vehicle accident], you get instant service,” he said. That leaves the humans to deal with what only they can deal with.
Seattle has been using AI for about two years, according to the Seattle Times.
The Seattle Fire Department, for example, uses it to decide who gets a fast response.
The city’s technology is prompting the dispatchers to route certain 911 patients to a nurse-staffed call center in Texas.
Some think the public should be made aware that this is a possibility.
“The potential that this company could be a part of the experience that Seattle 911 callers have and they don’t know it, that raises serious concerns,” Ryan Calo, a University of Washington law professor and co-director of the university’s Tech Policy Lab, said.
“I’m troubled on a number of levels.”
“The dispatcher still has the ultimate authority,” Chris Lombard, SFD’s assistant chief of resource management, said.
“Every determination on a 911 call … is made by a trained SFD dispatcher following SFD’s protocols,” a representative of Corti, the company supplying Seattle’s technology, said. “Corti’s role is to support that work, not replace or override clinical judgment.”
This article appeared originally on The Western Journal.

The post Major City Routing 911 Calls to AI to Decide Who Gets a Human and Who Doesn’t appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

Michele Tafoya
Longtime former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya secured the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Minnesota, multiple media organizations reported less than hour after the polls closed. Tafoya will face off against lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan in November.
With 15% of the vote counted, Tafoya held 50.6% as of 8:50 p.m. central time.
Peggy Flanagan, lieutenant governor under Gov. Tim Walz, overcame a challenge in the Democratic primary from Rep. Angie Craig. Flanagan won the race with 58.7% of the vote with 82% of votes counted.

Former sports broadcaster turned Republican political consultant Michele Tafoya has won the Republican nomination for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat.
The Associated Press (AP) called the race, with Tafoya winning 51.6% of the vote. She beat out Adam Schwarze and Royce Lewis.
READ… pic.twitter.com/d2JqJsX9CJ
— FOX 9 (@FOX9) August 12, 2026

Flanagan’s win represents another notch in the belt for progressive candidates over traditional establishment figures in the Democratic party.
Flanagan has criticized Craig’s vote for the Laken Riley Act, legislation requiring the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to detain undocumented individuals who have been arrested, charged or convicted of crimes.
“Voting three days into the second Trump administration for Donald Trump’s immigration bill that allowed him to terrorize our communities, the loss of life, the economic impact, the trauma — it’s horrific,” Flanagan said in a debate.

Meet Peggy Flanagan.
She just won the nomination for the U.S. Senate in Minnesota.
Yikes. pic.twitter.com/Xawskiabcu
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) August 12, 2026

Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mas., and Tina Smith, D-Minn., who currently holds the seat, have endorsed Flanagan. Notably, President Donald Trump did not endorse a candidate in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race.
Flanagan called for unity among Democrats moving forward in the race. She said the race in Minnesota will be key to the party’s ambitions of taking back the Senate.

“To everyone who voted for Angie, I appreciate that you made your voice heard,” Flanagan said. “But know this, I will bust my tail to earn your votes and most importantly, your trust. I need you in this fight. Minnesota needs you in this fight.”
Tafoya, a former sideline reporter for 11 years for NBC’s Sunday Night Football, has focused her campaign on fighting fraud in Minnesota, which has gained national attention over the past several months.
She supported the Deporting Fraudsters Act, legislation that would immediately deport a noncitizen convicted of fraud in federal programs.
“Michele will fight for tough new mandatory minimum sentences that put fraudsters in federal prison and keep them there,” Tafoya’s website reads.
She also supported pulling federal funds from states that do not implement anti-fraud controls.
Tafoya leads Flanagan with more than $1.3 million in cash on hand, according to the Federal Election Commission. Flanagan has slighlty more than $1 million in cash on hand.
Tafoya has received $10,000 from the Jobs Opportunity Now PAC and $2,500 from the Salem Media Group PAC. Flanagan received $2,500 from the Dirt Road Democrats PAC; $4,000 from Shannon Finley, a lobbyist at Capitol Counsel LLC; and $3,500 from the Yocha Dehe Wintun Nation in California.

[Editor’s note: This story originally was published by The Center Square.]